2013 annual results - ferrexpo...2013 0.5 0.4 1.9 0.2 0.1 1.1 1.3 1. ferrexpo secured a new pxf...
TRANSCRIPT
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Producing iron ore pellets for 35 years
2 0 1 3 A N N U A L R E S U LT S
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D I S C L A I M E R
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and does not constitute or form part of any offer or invitation or inducement to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any shares in the Company or any other securities, nor shall any part of it nor the fact of its distribution form part of or be relied on in connection with any contract or investment decision relating thereto, nor does it constitute a recommendation regarding the securities of the Company. No information made available to you in connection with this document may be passed on, copied, reproduced, in whole or in part, or otherwise disseminated, directly or indirectly, to any other person.
Some of the information in this document is still in draft form and is subject to verification, finalisation and change. Neither the Company nor its affiliates nor advisers are under an obligation to correct, update or keep current the information contained in this document or to publicly announce the result of any revision to the statements made herein except where they would be required to do so under applicable law.
No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this document. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by or on behalf of the Company or any of the Company’s directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this document and no liability whatsoever is accepted by the Company or any of the Company’s members, directors, officers or employees nor any other person for any loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of such information or opinions otherwise arising in connection therewith.
This presentation and its contents are confidential. By reviewing and / or attending this presentation you are deemed to accept that you are under a duty of confidentiality in relation to the contents of this presentation. You agree that you will not at any time have any discussion, correspondence or contact concerning the information in this document with any of the directors or employees of the Company or its subsidiaries nor with any of their customers or suppliers, or any governmental or regulatory body without the prior written consent of the Company.
Certain statements, beliefs and opinions in this document and any materials distributed in connection with this document are forward-looking. The statements typically contain words such as “anticipate”, “assume”, “believe”, “estimate”, “expect”, “plan”, “intend” and words of similar substance. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These risk, uncertainties and assumptions could adversely affect the outcome and financial effects of the plans and events described herein. Statements contained in the document regarding past trends or activities should not be taken as a representation or warranty (express or implied) that such trends or activities will continue in the future. No statement in this document is intended to be a profit forecast. You should not place reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this document. You should not base any behaviour in relation to financial instruments related to the Company’s securities or any other securities and investments on information until after it is made publicly available by the Company or any of their respective advisers. Any dealing or encouraging others to deal on the basis of such information may amount to insider dealing under the Criminal Justice Act 1993 and to market abuse under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.
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I N T R O D U C T I O N M I C H A E L A B R A H A M S C B E D L , C H A I R M A N
3
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2 0 1 3 F I N A N C I A L R E S U LT S C H R I S M AW E , C F O
4
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2 0 1 3 H I G H L I G H T S : I N C R E A S E D V O L U M E S D R I V I N G G R O W T H
― Record pellet production of 11mtpa
― Revenue reflects higher sales volumes & prices
― Remained competitively positioned on global cost curve ― C1 costs inline with 2012 ― C1 cost declined by 10% during the year following
FYM ramp up in 1Q13
― Projects remain on track, lower capex reflects savings & focus to maintain balance sheet strength
― Strong credit metrics maintained
― Final dividend of US3.3 cents per share
― Special dividend of US6.6 cents per share
5
US$M (unless otherwise stated) 2013 2012 Change Revenue 1,581 1,424 11% EBITDA 506 405 25% Profit for the year 264 219 21% Diluted eps 44.69 37.08 21% Net cash flow from operating activities 233 119 96% Capital investment 278 429 (35%) Cash balance at 31/12 390 597 (33%) Net debt 639 423 51% Net debt to EBITDA 1.3x 1.1x Shareholder funds 1,713 1,527 12% Final ordinary dividend (cents) 3.3 3.3 - Special dividend (cents) 6.6 6.6 -
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US$M (unless otherwise stated) 2013 2012 Pellet production from own ore (000’ tonnes) 10,466 9,409
Pellet sales (000’ tonnes) 10,689 9,675 Revenue 1,581 1,424 C1 cost per tonne 59.8 59.6 Gross profit 808 733 % margin 51% 51% Selling and distribution (336) (312) General admin and other (77) (76) Write down of VAT receivable (36) - Financing incl. non-operating Forex (54) (79) Profit before tax 305 266 % margin 19% 18% Income tax % 14% 18% Profit for the year 264 219 Diluted eps (US cents) 44.69 37.08
I N C O M E S TAT E M E N T 2 0 1 3 V S . 2 0 1 2
― Production from own ore increased 11%, adding US$40M to EBITDA
― Average prices up 4% compared to prior year ― C1 costs reflect FYM impact: volume efficiencies, lower mining
costs & higher grade ore, UAH stable ― S&D reflects higher volumes offset by freight savings ― General admin costs inline with 2012 ― VAT write down of US$36M reflecting estimated discount ― Finance expense included US$20M discount for VAT in 2012 ― Strong set of results in stable market environment
6
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1,424
127
37 1 8
1,300
1,350
1,400
1,450
1,500
1,550
1,600
1,650
2012 revenue Sales volume Sales price, own ore CIF/CFR sales Other 2013 revenue
1,581
R E V E N U E 2 0 1 3 V S . 2 0 1 2
7
US$M
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E B I T D A 2 0 1 3 V S . 2 0 1 2
8
US$M
405
506
40 56
17 12 11 12 1 0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2012
EBI
TDA
Sales
volum
e
Iron o
re pr
ices
Custo
mer m
ix
Freig
ht sa
vings
Glob
al fre
ight
price
s
C1 co
st
DAP/
FOB
distrib
ution
costs
G&A
& oth
er
2013
EBI
TDA
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C 1 C A S H C O S T S B E N E F I T T I N G F R O M F Y M
9
63.9
59.8
58.2 57.6
59.8 59.6
54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65
1Q 2013 2Q 2013 3Q 2013 4Q 2013 FY 2013 FY 2012
US$ C
1 Cas
h cos
t
Breakdown of C1 cash cost
― 7% increase in electricity tariffs ― Other C1 costs slightly lower, particularly oil & gas ― UAH stable in 2013, YTD depreciated by 16% ― FYM: 20% contribution to Group volumes, lower mining costs,
higher grade ore (vs. FPM lean ore)
25.5%
13.0%
11.8% 11.4%
9.8%
7.6%
7.0%
6.3% 4.1% 3.6% Electricity
Gas Materials Fuel Personnel Costs Maintenance & consumables Grinding bodies Spare parts Explosives Royalties
kWh p
er to
nne o
f pell
ets
205.5179.2 173.1 165.1
0
80
160
240
2005 2011 2012 2013
C1 cash cost evolution
Electricity consumption
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C A S H F L O W 2 0 1 3 V S . 2 0 1 2
― Working capital reflects stocking of FPM lean ore & pre-payment of corporate profit tax
― VAT stabilised, US$318M VAT outstanding at 31 Dec 20131
― US$87M pre-paid corporate profit tax (CPT) at 31 Dec 2013 ― VAT & pre-paid CPT 63% of net debt ― Sustaining capex reducing: US$45M excl mine fleet
replacement & capacity upgrade project ― Growth projects near completion ― US$82M investment in Ferrous Resources ― Strong credit metrics, net debt to EBITDA of 1.3x
10
1. VAT repayments were received in January 2014, reducing the gross VAT balance to US$291million
US$M (unless otherwise stated) 2013 2012 EBITDA 506 405 Working capital movements (103) (128) Interest paid (56) (56) Tax and other (113) (102) Net cash flow from operating activities 233 119 Sustaining CapEx (86) (113) Free cash flow 149 6 Development CapEx (192) (316) Dividend (78) (39) Acquisitions & other (80) 10 Net financing (outflow) / inflow (6) 46 Net increase / (decrease) (207) (293) Cash balance at 1 January 597 890 Cash balance at 31 December 390 597 Net debt at 31 December 639 423 Net debt to EBITDA 1.3x 1.1x
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2 0 1 3 C A P E X R E F L E C T S E X P E N D I T U R E O N A P P R O V E D P R O J E C T S & S AV I N G S
Project status: FPM CUP1: – Concentrating capability increased to 1.1mt per month through 2013 – On track to achieve annualised processing capability of 12 million
tonnes of pellets FPM MLE2: – Stripping as per plan, mine life on track to be extended to 2038
FPM QUP3: – New grinding & floatation cell installed in 2013, further cell in 2014 – Expect 100% 65% Fe pellet production by year end 2015
FYM: Phase 1 – Mine complete & in production, mining infrastructure largely finished Phase 2 – 10mtpa concentrator, filtration plant & tailings handling facility to
produce 67% Fe fines – Detailed engineering complete, awaiting Board approval
Logistics: – Rail cars: purchased 267 units in 2013, total fleet at 31 Dec 13: 2,200.
300 units to be delivered in 2014 – Shipping: Top-off facility reduced freight costs by US$2.30 per tonne
11
US$M 2013 2012
FPM 142 192
Sustaining/CUP1 81 108
Mine life extension2 15 49
Quality upgrade3 47 35
FYM 100 146
Other: 36 91
FBM, other deposits 9 42
Logistics 26 49
Total 278 429
Capital expenditure
1. CUP – capacity upgrade project, 2. MLE – mine life extension 3.QUP – quality upgrade programme
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Credit Metrics – High Liquidity
B A L A N C E S H E E T 2 0 1 3 V S . 2 0 1 2
– New committed PXF US$350M, currently undrawn1
– Diversified sources of funding
– No material debt repayments in 2014 & 2015
12
Pro forma Gross Debt Maturity Profile at 31 December 20131
Net Debt / EBITDA
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0.5 0.4 1.9 0.2 0.1 1.1 1.3
1. Ferrexpo secured a new PXF facility in 2013 for US$350M maturing in 2018. This facility remains undrawn & as of 31 December 2013, US$280M of the US$350M was available. Once repayment of Ferrexpo’s US$420M PXF commences in 2014 the remaining US$70 million of the US$350M PXF will become available.
US$M 31 Dec 2013 31 Dec 2012
Cash and Equivalents 390 597
Total Gross Debt 1,029 1,020
Net Debt (639) (423)
Total Equity 1,735 1,547
Undrawn Facilities1 280 0
Total Liquidity (Facilities + Cash) 670 597
US$M
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
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C O N C L U S I O N TO F I N A N C I A L R E V I E W
– Record production & sales volumes – Profitability increased: higher output, higher prices, freight savings, stable C1 costs, lower
admin costs – Costs reduced steadily throughout 2013 – Growth projects on track, output to increase going forward – Special dividend reflects strong performance – Healthy credit metrics maintained – VAT stabilised – Weaker UAH has reduced local costs
13
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B U S I N E S S U P D AT E K O S T YA N T I N Z H E VA G O
14
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M A R K E T I N G & L O G I S T I C S
15
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G R O W I N G L O G I S T I C S C A PA B I L I T Y
Rail cars – Increased fleet (+267; 2,200 cars as of 31 December) – Provided savings & improved service reliability to customers – Aim to maintain self sufficiency as volumes grows Seaborne freight – Benefited from higher number of cargoes shipped by capes (22 in 2013 vs.
17 in 2012) – Market freight rates increased although remain relatively low – Sustainable cost savings made from:
– Commencement of Group’s top-off facility – Increasing ship loading rates – More efficient vessel scheduling – Improved negotiated freight rates with new ship owners
– Group loading facility reduced top-off costs by US$2.3 per tonne – Freight rate achieved in 2H 2013: at least in line with cost of freight for
capesize vessels from Brazil to China – Overall freight rate to China decreased 20% per tonne compared to 2012
In 2013 developed:
16
– Optimise & reduce internal freight costs by: – Increasing rail car fleet (expect delivery of 300 cars) – Additional port capacity, further improvements in scheduling, &
optimisation of routes to market
Increase realisation from customers due to proximate location
In 2014 continue to:
Traditional Natural Growth
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M A R K E T I N G E X PA N S I O N W I T H F O C U S O N P R E M I U M C R I S I S R E S I S TA N T C L I E N T S
– Not reliant on any one region for demand – In 2013: signed new contract with China’s leading steel mill, renewed a contract & commenced a trial cargo in Japan, increased
sales in Turkey and Germany – As of 1 January 2014, all long term contracts based on a benchmark index
Sales Volume by Contract Type
Benefits of diversity to Ferrexpo
Sales Volume by Market
17
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Benchmark indexed Spot Quarterly negotiated
2013 2012
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Traditional Natural Growth
2013 2012
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Pelletising Cost Curve
Source: CRU, January 2013
Note: Only reflects costs incurred at pelletising stage of the production process (i.e. does not include mining, concentration and beneficiation costs) and as such should not be considered as a cost curve for total cost of pellets production. Site costs are defined as cash operating costs plus share of local overhead and sustaining capital
0
14
28
42
56
70
USc/d
mtu
Ferrexpo
0.2 Bnt
ENRC Metalloinvest
IOC
Metinvest Metinvest LKAB
LKAB Vale
Vale Samarco
Vale
CLIFFS
I N D U S T RY P E L L E T I S I N G C O S T C U RV E : F E R R E X P O I S W E L L P L A C E D
18
– Ferrexpo to benefit from rising pellet premiums due to growing demand for higher quality iron ore feedstock
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O P E R AT I O N S & I N V E S T M E N T S
19
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S T R O N G P E R F O R M A N C E F R O M F P M I N 2 0 1 3
– FPM processed more ore, produced more concentrate & pellets on a monthly basis
– Completing major modernisation whilst continuing to increase output
– 10% reduction in C1 cash cost during the year (1Q13 C1 cost US$63.9/t; 4Q13 C1 cost US$57.6/t)
– Improved consumption norms decreased C1 costs on average by US$3.5 per tonne in 2013
– 2014: further modernisation of grinding sections, replacement of medium/fine crushing sections, rebuild of one kiln, completion of floatation units, commissioning of tailings facility & completion of detailed engineering for press filtration plant
– Future opportunities: optimise FPM mine, increase capacity of
existing pellet lines, floatation unit 3 to further increase quality & yield
20
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
1250
Conc Pellets
Monthly Concentrate & Pellet Production (incl FYM)
Following completion of 5 grinding sections in 2012/13, new production capacities were achieved from 2H13
2014 production exit rate: 12 million tonnes per annum
FPM KPI’s 2012 2013 2014
Stripping (‘000 m3) 27.9 28.9 30.0 – 32.0
Processed ore (incl FYM) 29.8 30.7 31.0 – 32.5
Concentrate (mtpa) 11.7 13.2 14.0 – 14.4
Pellet (mtpa) 9.7 10.8 11.5 – 12.0
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AV E R A G E M O N T H LY P R O D U C T I O N S TAT I S T I C S F R O M O W N O R E
21
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Concentrate Pellets
Average monthly concentrate & pellet production from own ore
Thou
sand
tonn
es
+13%
+13%
275
300
325
350
375
400
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Average monthly production of 65% Fe pellets from own ore
Thou
sand
tonn
es
+15%
– Average monthly concentrate & pellet production increased 13% in 2013 vs. 2012 – Average monthly concentrate production of 65% Fe pellets increased 15% in 2013 vs. 2012
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I M P R O V I N G C O N S U M P T I O N N O R M S – C1 COST REDUCED BY US$8.6/TONNE SINCE 2005
22
68.4
59.8
-3.7
-2.8 -1.0 -1.1
PF 2005 Electricity Gas Grinding Media Personnel FY2013
6.4 5.2
2005 FY 2013
22.0
16.2
2005 FY 2013
205.5 165
2005 FY 2013
-20% -26% -19%
Electricity Gas Grinding Media kWh per tn of pellets m3 per tn of pellets Kg per tn of pellets
0.7
1.1
2005 FY 2013
69%
Productivity ‘000 tones of pellets per employee
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F Y M P R O D U C I N G , L O W E R I N G C O S T S & O P E R AT I O N A L R I S K P R O F I L E
23
– FYM ore contributed 20% to pellet production volumes in 2013 – Reduced C1 costs on avg by US$1.20 per tonne (principally due to lower mining costs) – Lower operational risk through two operating mines – In 2014: 9mt of FYM ore to be processed to produce c. 3mt of pellets (2013: 6.6mt processed; 2mt of pellets); completion of FYM
infrastructure and place commitments for long lead items for FYM concentrator (subject to Board approval)
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Conc Pellets
Concentrate & Pellet production from FYM ore in 2013:
Throughout 2013, transportation & processing of FYM ore was streamlined
Thou
sand
tonn
es
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O V E R A L L C O S T P O S I T I O N
24
Cash Charge Curve (US$/t – Dry, 62% Fe, CIF China)1
US$/t
onne
mtpa
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Predominantly Vale, Rio, BHP
Ferrexpo FMG
Predominantly China
– A 10% UAH devaluation vs. the US$ results in c.US$4 per tonne currency benefit – Approximately 1 billion tonnes of supply would need to be eliminated before Ferrexpo’s operations would be impacted
Source Deutsche Bank; Ferrexpo, November 2013
1 In order to determine a comparable CFR cost for non homogeneous iron ore products any benefits or discounts a producer may receive relative to the 62% Fines CFR China price are deducted or added. In the case of Ferrexpo, the calculation is as follows: C1 cash cost of production + freight to Port Yuzhny + sea freight to China + maintenance capex + regional market discount – less pellet premium - premium for higher Fe content.
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OUTPUT TO GROW TO12MTPA, FYM CAN ADD FURTHER TONNAGE
2014 targets: – Sustained production of 1.2mt of concentrate per month – Sustained production of 1mt of pellets per month – Increase output of 65% Fe pellets – Further reductions in cost of pellets from FYM ore – Completion of FYM infrastructure – Place commitments for long lead items for FYM concentrator (subject to Board approval)
Future targets: – Further improvements in yield recovery and pellet quality, 100% of production to be 65% Fe pellets by end of 2015 – Increase capacity of existing pellet lines – Continued modernisation of sections within beneficiation plant (part of sustaining capex) – Develop 10mtpa concentrator to process FYM ore (4 lines of 2.5mtpa)
– Total investment for 10mtpa concentrator expected to be approximately US$85/tonne, one of the lowest in the industry – Phasing of investment possible to assist funding
– Continue to lower overall cost & improve position on global cost curve
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U K R A I N E
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U K R A I N E
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– Our deepest regrets for the lives lost in the recent political turmoil – We are hopeful of a satisfactory political outcome reflecting democratic principles – At the time of writing, there have been no disruptions to Ferrexpo’s operations in Ukraine
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O U T L O O K
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F E R R E X P O A W O R L D C L A S S I R O N O R E P E L L E T P R O D U C E R
2014 Market Outlook:
– Price of iron ore lower in 1Q 2014, expect some recovery in remainder of the year, but remains volatile
– Expect to benefit from a growing market requirement for high quality ore
– Local currency devalued reducing local costs
2014 Ferrexpo Targets:
– Benefit from increased pricing transparency as all long term contracts are now indexed
– Costs to continue to reduce through higher volumes
– Continue to expand logistics capability
– Continue prudent capital investment to complete existing projects
– Further investments (in FYM) dependent on balance sheet capacity
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T H A N K Y O U
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