©2013 lodging econometrics, inc. | presenter: jp ford senior vice president a snapshot of lodging...

©2013 Lodging Econometrics, Inc. | www.lodgingeconometrics.com

Presenter: JP Ford Senior Vice President

A Snapshot of Lodging Supply and Transaction Trends

HAMA Fall 2013 MeetingSeptember 25 - 26, 2013

Hilton Bonnet Creek, Orlando, FL


Lodging Econometrics (LE): Who We Are

LE is the leading provider of Global Real Estate Intelligence.

LE delivers comprehensive Market Trend Reports to Asset Managers for any individual market in the world.

Market Trend Reports provide detailed summaries of all Pipeline and Transaction Activity by: Chain Scale, Market Tract, Leading Companies and Brands etc.

LE also maintains the largest and most accurate Online Database of New Construction, Open & Operating Hotels (Census), and Individual Sales Comps throughout the world.

LE has a team of researchers who maintain relationships with over: 200 Brands, 600 Developers and 1,500 Ownership and Management Groups, globally.


US Lodging Real Estate Cycle

Operating Maturity

Early Operating Recovery

Transactions

Main Street Debt Availability

New Project Announcements

Conversions/Renovations

10 11 12 13 14 15X

Return to Operating Peaks


Year End 13 Year End 14 Year End 1509 10 11 12 2Q130

120

240

360

480

600

Rooms (000s)

Projs

US Construction Pipeline: Projects & Room Counts as of 2Q13 with Forecast

3,122 2,757

430

373335 341 350

3,563 2,753 2,822

Under Construction Starts in Next 12 Mos Early Planning Forecast

400

460

525


US Construction Pipeline: Project Stage Year Over Year Comparison

2Q 2013 2Q 2012 % Variance

Projs Rms Projs Rms Projs Rms

Under Construction

646

81,531 525 66,917 +23% +22%

Start Next 12 Mos 1,116 128,861 823 93,645 +36% +38%

Early Planning 1,060 139,759 1,373 172,241 -23% -19%

Total Pipeline 2,822 350,151 2,721 332,803 +4% +5%


2%

6%

25%

28%

7%2%

4%

26%

Luxury

Upper Upscale

Upscale

Upper Midscale

Midscale

Economy

Casino

Unbranded

Projs Rooms

25 8,614

79 20,399

661 86,088

1,021 97,887

339 25,842

81 6,467

42 14,970

574 89,884

Total 2,822

350,151

Total US Construction Pipeline: By Chain Scale

By Rooms


5%

9%

34%36%

10%

2%

4%

Luxury

Upper Upscale

Upscale

Upper Midscale

Midscale

Economy

Casino

Unbranded

Projs Rooms

70 16,976

130 31,387

866 118,239

1,198 125,305

413 34,578

103 8,696

42 14,970

IncludedInclude

d

Total 2,822

350,151

Total US Construction Pipeline: By Chain Scale

By Rooms


25,347

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Rooms

82,587

37,193

68,037

56,305

44,528

LE’s US Forecast for New Hotel Openings as of 2Q13

Actual Forecast

25,347


Projs Rms

New York City 135 23,876

Washington, DC 87 14,738

Houston 77 8,518

San Diego 35 8,265

Miami 40 8,102

Top 10 US Markets – Total Construction Pipeline: By Rooms as of 2Q13


Projs Rms

Los Angeles 41 7,946

Chicago 30 5,989

Boston 38 5,747

Philadelphia 43 5,653

Dallas 43 5,597

Top 10 US Markets – Total Construction Pipeline: By Rooms as of 2Q13 (cont’d)


Projs Rms

503 64,264

522 60,834

522 53,235

51 8,429

44 7,541

US Pipeline By Top 5 Franchise Parent Companies: By Rooms as of 2Q13


07 08 09 10 11 12 2Q13 >200 Rooms

288 72 47 90 128 112 59

<200 Rooms

1,364 829 381 425 560 452 449

Total Trans 1,652 901 428 515 688 564 508

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

170K 212K

80K 70K

152K

77K

Avera

ge S

elli

ng P

rice

Per

Room

(0

00s)

US Transactions with a Reported Selling Price as of 2Q13


US Lodging Real Estate – Total Investment by Dollars1 as of 2Q13

As Buyers As Sellers

$ Millions2011 2012 YTD

2013 2011 2012 YTD 2013

Privately Held Companies

Equity Funds 3,229 3,032 2,912 3,404 2,910 2,618

Hotel Companies 1,409 2,110 817 2,637 2,226 1,773

Individual Owners 1,495 1,041 557 1,817 1,996 598

Publicly Traded Companies

REITs 3,719 3,276 1,839 421 949 2,508

Hotel Companies 165 15 96 699 1,060 303

Other Entities 271 363 1,929 1,310 697 349

Total Dollar Volume 10,288 9,837 8,149 10,288 9,837 8,149

1 For Transactions with a reported Selling Price


Market Trend Report: Sample Cover Page


Market Trend Report: Market Tract by Chain Scale


Market Trend Report: Projects Under Construction


Presented by: Bruce Ford

JP FordSenior Vice President

P: 603.431.8740 x14

C: 603.770.0767

E: [email protected]

Thank You!Thank You!

Please visit our website: www.lodgingeconometrics.com/industry-support for a complimentary copy of this presentation.

©2013 lodging econometrics, inc. | presenter: jp ford senior vice president a snapshot of lodging...

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