2013 – the year in review
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2013 – The Year in Review. The Fleets - 2013. Type Western Built Eastern Built Total Turbojets 22,113 1,007 23,120 Turboprops 4,797 1,001 5,898 Business Jets 18,072. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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2013 – The Year in Review
The Fleets - 2013
Type Western Built Eastern Built Total
Turbojets 22,113 1,007 23,120Turboprops 4,797 1,001 5,898 Business Jets 18,072 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Accident Classifications Aircraft
* Type: Turbojets, Turboprops, Piston, Helicopters * Size: Weight, number of seats * Use: Passenger, cargo, business, government * Western built or Eastern builtHow Measured * Per hours flown * Per departures * Per number of aircraftClassification * Hull Loss Accident * Total Loss Accident * Economic Loss Accident * Substantial Damage Accident * Fatal Accident * Major Accident
Accident Classifications Aircraft
* Type: Turbojets, Turboprops, Piston, Helicopters * Size: Weight, number of seats * Use: Commercial, business, government * Western built or Eastern builtHow Measured * Per hours flown * Per departures * Per number of aircraftClassification * Hull Loss Accident * Total Loss Accident * Economic Loss Accident * Substantial Damage Accident * Fatal Accident * Major Accident
Accident ClassificationsMajor Accident:An accident in which any of three conditions is met:
1. Aircraft destroyed, or
2. Multiple fatalities to occupants, or
3. One fatality and aircraft substantially damaged
Major Accidents Commercial Jets
1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012
CFITLOCExcursion
Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal
20 April Bhoja Airlines B-737 Islamabad, Pakistan
Approach 127
9 May Sukhoi SU-100 Mount Salak,Indonesia Enroute 45
2 June Allied Air B-727 Accra, Ghana Landing 0
3 June Dana Air MD-83 Lagos, Nigeria Approach 153
30 Nov Aero Service IL-76 Brazzaville, Congo Go Around 7
25 Dec Air Bagan F-100 Heho, Myanmar Landing 1
29 Dec Red Wings Airlines TU-204 Moscow, Russia Landing 5
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Major Accidents Commercial Jets
1 January 2013 to 28 October 2013
CFITLOCExcursion
Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal29
January
SCAT Air CRJ-200 Almaty, Kazakhstan
Approach 21
13 April Lion Air B-737 Bali, Indonesia Approach 0
29 April National Airlines B-747 Bagram, Afghanistan Takeoff 7
6 July Asiana Airlines B-777 San Francisco, USA Landing 314 August UPS A-300 Birmingham, AL,
USA Approach 2
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Commercial Jet Major Accidents 2000 through 2012
20
15
10
5
2001 02 03 04 05
06
07 08
09
10
11
13
19
13
13
16
11
17
19
17
19
14
12Eastern
Built
7
Major Accidents Business Jets
1 January 2013 to 28 October 2013
Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal
20 February The Vein Guys Premier I Thomson, GA,
USA Landing 5
4 March Global Jet Luxembourg Premier I Annemasse,
France Takeoff 2
17 March 7700 Enterprises Premier I South Bend, IA,
USAApproac
h 2
5 May Private Lear 60 Valencia, Venezuela
Approach 2
29 September CREW MMCLLC Cessna CJ2 Santa Monia, CA,
USA Landing 4
18 October Dufrense, Inc Citation I Derby, Kansas, USA Climb 2
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Business Jet Major Accidents 2000 through 2012
20
15
10
5
2001 02 03 04 05
06
07 08
09
10
11
14
8
14
8
15
912
11
78
10.5
7
12
13
Business Jet Major Accident Rate 2000 through 2012
(Accidents per 1,000 Aircraft)
1.0
.75
.50
.25
2005 06 07 08 09
10
11 12
4 Year Average: .52
8 Year Average: .67
Major Accidents Commercial Turboprops (> 14 seats) 1 January 2013 to 28 October 2013
CFIT
Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal
23 Januray Kenn Borek Air DHC-6 Terra Nova Bay,
Antarctia Enroute 3
13 February South Airlines AN-24 Donetsk,
UkraineApproac
h 5
4 March CAA Fokker 50 Goma, DRC Approach 7
8 March ACE Air Cargo Beech 1900
Anchorage, Alaska, USA
Approach 2
7 April Sahel Air Service
Beech 1900
San Tome and Principe
Approach 1
17 April Lao Air DHC-6 Vientiane-Wattay, Laos Takeoff 0
16 May Nepal Airlines DHC-6 Jomson, Nepal Landing 016 May Flying Dragon
Aviation Y-12 Shenyang, China Climb 01 June Sita Air DO-228 Simikot, Nepal Landing 0
10 June Merpati Airlines MA-60 Kupang, Indonesia Landing 0
13 June SkyBahamas SAAB 340 Marsh Harbor, Bahamas Landing 0
29 June Batair Cargo EMB-110 Francistown, Botswana
Approach 2
9 Sept CorpFlite DO-228 Vina Del Mar, Chile
Approach 2
3 October Associated Aviation EMB-120 Lagos, Nigeria Takeoff 13
10 October MASwings DHC-6 Kudat, Malaysia Landing 2
16 October Lao Airlines ATR-72 Pakse, Laos Approac
h 49
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Major Accidents Commercial Turboprops (> 14 seats)
1 January 2013 to 28 October 2013 (cont.)
CFIT
Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal
19 October Air Niugini ATR-42 Madang, Papua New
Guinea Takeoff 0
Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service
Commercial Turboprop Major Accidents
2000 through 2012
2001 02
03
04 05
06
07
08
09
510152025303540
22
31
33 3
1
39
24
24
29
21
10
20
11
25.9 (12 years)
21.4 (5 years)
23
12
21
20 1
7
Eastern Built
Approach and Landing Major Accidents
Commercial Jets 1 January 2013 through 28 October 2013Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fatal
29 January
SCAT Air CRJ-200 Almaty, Kazakhstan
Approach 21
13 April Lion Air B-737 Bali, Indonesia Approach 0
6 July Asiana Airlines B-777 San Francisco, USA Landing 214 August UPS A-300 Birmingham, AL,
USA Approach 2
Controlled Flight into Terrain Major Accidents
Commercial Jets1 January 2013 to 28 October 2013
Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fata
l29
January
SCAT Air CRJ-200 Almaty, Kazakhstan Approach 21
13 April Lion Air B-737 Bali, Indonesia Approach 06 July Asiana Airlines B-777 San Francisco, USA Landing 3
14 August UPS A-300 Birmingham, AL, USA Approach 2
Sources: Honeywell (Don Bateman), Ascend
5 Year Running Average
Over the last 7 years, 26 of 88 turboprop major accidents has been a CFIT– that’s 30%, or almost 1 of every 3 !
Aircraft Upset Major Accidents Commercial Jets
1 January 2013 through 28 October 2013
Date Operator Aircraft Location Phase Fata
l29 April National
Airlines B-747 Bagram, Afghanistan Takeoff 7
Aircraft Upset Major AccidentsCommercial Jets
1999 through 2012
Num
ber o
f Acc
iden
ts
0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0123456789
10
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
46
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Being Predictive
In A Reactive World
Being Predictive• Can we be predictive ? • Will it be successful in reducing risk ?
Safety Basics
Safety = Risk Management
* Eliminate risk * Reduce risk * Acknowledge risk
Managing Risk
Risk Management
• Risk = Probability X Severity
• Everything in life has risk
• Manage Risk by modifying P or S
The Key to Risk Management
# 1 Identify Hazards
Being Efficient
Want to reduce risk in the highest risk areas e.g. Prevent 1 accident in 10 years: good Prevent 10 accidents in 1 year: better
Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team (CICTT) Aviation Occurrence CategoriesFatal Accidents – Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet – 2003 Through 2012
Reactive: Tending to react, characterized by reaction Proactive: Preparing for, intervening in, or controlling an expected occurrence or situationPredictive: Inference regarding a future event based on probability
The Spectrum of Safety
Reactive Predictive
Fly-crash-fix-flyIdentify hazardsas they appear in accidents
Study past accidents and incidents to identify hazards and reduce risk
Proactive
Utilize data from incidents and normal operations to identify trends and reduce risk before an accident happens
Single Accident Data----------Consolidated Accident/Incident Data ------Accident/Incident/Operational Data
Data Availability/Utilization
Predicting• We can easily predict 90% of next year’s accidents
- There will be 1 or 2 upset aircraft
- > 50% will be approach and landing - Half of those will be runway excursions - There will be at least 2 Jet and 4 Turboprop CFIT accidents
“Black swan” events
Predicting
- TWA-800
- QF-32- BA-038
Being Predictive• Can we be predictive ?
Being Predictive
• Can we be predictive ?
YES
Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team (CICTT) Aviation Occurrence CategoriesFatal Accidents – Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet – 2003 Through 2012
Safety Fatality Data - Circa 1992
Collision with terrain
Approach and landing
ATC systems
Maintenance
Loss of control
Postcrash survival
Inflight fire/smoke
Engine failures
Airport ground control
Nonconfiguration takeoffs
Windshear
Deicing/anti-icing
Rejected takeoff
300025002000150010005000
• Can detect trends and future hazards
Trending
* Systems * Locations * Procedures
ASAP and FOQA Analysis of OAK Arrivals Receiving TAWS
Alerts
TCAS Hotspot Snap Shot
Being Predictive
• Will it be successful in reducing risk ?
Predictive Challenge
- Being able to get the support of the decision makers
Keys to Predictive Success
2. Decision maker support
1. Data to make the risk management case
A Change of Paradigm
Outcome Based
Event Based
Keys to Predictive Success
The Spectrum of Safety
Reactive Predictive
Fly-crash-fix-flyIdentify hazardsas they appear in accidents
Study past accidents and incidents to identify hazards and reduce risk
Proactive
Utilize data from incidents and normal operations to identify trends and reduce risk before an accident happens
Single Accident Data----------Consolidated Accident/Incident Data ------Accident/Incident/Operational Data
Data Availability/Utilization
Negative Outcome Negative Outcome(s) Events
Challenges to beingsuccessful in
predicting• Data
• Technology to utilize data
• Support of a reactive system TBA
X
X
Major Accident RateWestern-Built Commercial Jets
1999 – 2012
0.000.400.801.20
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
5 year running average
Major Accident Rate
Acc
iden
t rat
e pe
r mill
ion
depa
rtur
es
Source: Ascend
Aviation Safety 2013 Commercial jets on pace for another great year Business jets having a better than average year Turboprops are having an average year
CFIT in both commercial jets and in commercial turboprops has returned as the leading killer We now have the capability to be predictive in our safety efforts – but is the system ready to take advantage of this capability ?
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