2014 investor forum -...
TRANSCRIPT
Dow.com
2014 Investor Forum
Joe Harlan Chief Commercial Officer and Vice Chairman, Market Businesses November 13, 2014
Some of our comments today include statements about our expectations for the future. Those expectations involve risks and uncertainties. Dow cannot guarantee the accuracy of any forecasts or estimates, and we do not plan to update any forward-looking statements if our expectations change. If you would like more information on the risks involved in forward-looking statements, please see our Annual Report and our SEC filings. In addition, some of our comments reference non-GAAP financial measures. Where available, presentation of and reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and other associated disclosures are provided on the Internet at www.dow.com/investors.
SEC Disclosure Rules
™Trademark of The Dow Chemical Company or an affiliated company of Dow. “EBITDA” is defined as earnings (i.e., “Net Income”) before interest, income taxes, depreciation and amortization. “Adjusted EBITDA” is defined as EBITDA excluding the impact of Certain items. “Adjusted EBITDA margin” is defined as “Adjusted EBITDA” as a percentage of reported net sales. “Adjusted EPS” is defined as earnings per share excluding the impact of Certain items. “Net Debt” equals total debt (“Notes payable” plus “Long-term debt due within one year” plus “Long-Term Debt”) minus “Cash and cash equivalents.” “Net Debt to Total Capitalization” ratio is defined as “Net Debt” divided by “Net Capital.” “Net Capital” is defined as “Total Equity” + “Redeemable Noncontrolling Interest” + “Net Debt.” “Net Debt to EBITDA” is defined as “Net Debt” divided by “Adjusted EBITDA.” “TTM” is defined as trailing twelve months. “Total Capital” is defined as total assets minus non-interest bearing liabilities. “Adjusted Return on Capital” is defined as TTM “Adjusted Net Operating Profit After Tax” divided by average “Total Capital.” “Adjusted Sales” for joint ventures is defined as sales for joint ventures less sales to Dow and/or other Dow joint ventures. “Net Debt” for joint ventures excludes debt owed to Dow and/or other Dow joint ventures. “Total Shareholder Return” is defined as stock price appreciation plus dividends paid.
Our Priorities Going Forward
Fully capitalize on growth levers
Make further strategic choices: Go deeper and narrower to drive the next level of long-term growth
Maintain strong focus on rewarding shareholders
Announcing New Segments Aligned to Dow’s Strategy
3Q14 Trailing Twelve Months Revenue and Adj. EBITDA data
Performance Materials & Chemicals Performance Plastics
Revenue: $14.9B Adj. EBITDA: $2.1B
Revenue: $22.6B Adj. EBITDA: $4.4B
Chlor Alkali and Vinyl
Chlorinated Organics
Epoxy
Industrial Solutions
Polyurethanes
Dow Elastomers Dow Electrical and
Telecommunications Dow Packaging and
Specialty Plastics Energy Hydrocarbons
Agricultural Sciences Consumer Solutions Infrastructure Solutions
Revenue: $7.2B Adj. EBITDA: $0.9B
Revenue: $4.6B Adj. EBITDA: $1.0B
Crop Protection
Seeds
Consumer Care
Dow Automotive Systems
Dow Electronic Materials
Dow Building & Construction
Dow Coating Materials
Energy & Water Solutions
Performance Monomers
Revenue: $8.5B Adj. EBITDA: $1.1B
Foundation of Core Strengths Support the Entire Franchise Cost Advantaged Feedstocks in Every Region Scale & Operational Excellence Molecular and Physical Integration
Global Reach ― Marketing, Business & Operations Expertise in Science & Technology Strong Brand Value
SP
ECIA
LTY
DIVEST
RETAIN FOR INTEGRATION / RUN FOR CASH
CREATE STRUCTURAL ADVANTAGES ― Low Cost, Technology, Targeted Marketing
APPLY ‘BEST OWNER’ MINDSET
CO
MM
OD
ITY
Selling and R&D CapEx
INNOVATE BACK TO SPECIALTY
Running an Integrated Enterprise… Sell Out, Sell Up
Energy & Water Solutions
Dow Automotive Systems
Performance Monomers
Dow Coating Materials
Dow Electronic Materials
Consumer Care
Dow Building & Construction
Seeds
Base Crop Protection Products
New Crop Protection Products
Insecticides Herbicides
Row Crops
Fungicides
Niche Crops
Leading Position in the Agriculture Industry
Traits Germplasm
Seeds
Crop Protection
Untreated
*Dow AgroSciences’ field trials data
Herbicide program* with the Enlist™ Weed Control System
Growth Driven by Targeted Investments
Focused investment in innovation and channel drives growth; balanced across platforms
— Created a world-class Seeds business
— ‘Best-in-class’ Crop Protection pipeline
**Subject to regulatory approval; Stewarded introduction
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2015 2016 2017 2018**
($M
M)
Crop Protection Seeds
$1B Revenue Target From New Products by 2018
Doubling Dow Agricultural Science’s EBITDA
Soybeans
Acres Sold Sales at Maturity Crop
Corn
Cotton
>50MM
>40MM
<10MM
>$600MM
>$300MM
<$100MM
Estimated Launch Year Crop Geo
2015** Corn N. America
2016* Corn S. America
2016* Soybean N. America
2016* Soybean S. America
2016* Cotton N. America
Seeds EBITDA Growth Driven by Enlist™
Additional Modeling Details
Crop Protection EBITDA Growth Driven by Commercialization of New Products
New crop protection products generate 20‒30% higher margins
Enlist™ receives incremental acre margin in corn and cotton; full acre economics in soybeans
Licensing to multi-nationals and regional seed companies provides additional value
Isoclast™
Estimated Launch Year
Sales at Maturity Product
Arylex™
Broad Spectrum Herbicide
2013*
2014‒15*
2017‒18*
~$400MM
~$400MM
~$200MM
Cereal Fungicide 2018* ~$200MM
**Stewarded introduction *Subject to regulatory approval
Innovating for Growth
Record Pace of U.S. Patents Granted
Innovation Engine Accelerates the Pace of Effective Commercialization of Differentiated Solutions
2006 2014
BETAMATE™ Platform
20
06
Inve
sto
r D
ay
BETAMATE™ Gen 1 Steel to Steel: BMW 7 Series
BETAMATE™ Gen 4 Aluminum Bonding: Ford F-150
0
500
1000
1500
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 TTM
U.S. Patents Granted
U.S. Patent Applications
Patent-advantaged products represent >20% of Dow’s revenue
Patent-advantaged sales deliver >1,000 bps margin premium
Nearly 35% of Dow’s revenue comes from new products
New Innovation Delivers Higher Margins
TTM defined as Trailing Twelve Months
Consumers Crave Improved Displays and Novel Form Factors New Technologies Provide Great Growth Opportunities for Display Technologies
Organic Growth with Current Portfolio Continues to Provide Top-Notch Technology via Tight Customer Engagements and Aligned Technology Roadmaps
Strategic Focus of Dow Electronic Materials
High-yield/performance OLED materials
Quantum Dots LED display (including QD films)
Dye-based color filter
Aggressively pursue Chinese producers with current technology, demonstrating excellence in both LCD and OLED materials
Organic layers that enable foldable as well as bendable displays
3D Films
Growing desire for close to natural light, moving away from LED’s high-energy blue light
New form factors enabled by new materials technologies − Flexible and wearable displays − Auto-stereoscopic 3D displays
The rise of China in both mobile and large flat panel display arenas
LED OLED Sunlight QD
Major Display Market Trends (2014+)
High Reliance on Technically Differentiated Offerings R
&D
Inve
stm
en
t an
d M
argi
n
Level of Competition
Differentiation
Value Chain
Dimensions of differentiation: Quality, Service, Reliability, etc.
All Acrylic Coatings
Tiered Offerings Aligned with Returns Finding Our Place in the Value Chain
Performance Monomers
Multi-Generational and Tiered Approach Maximizes Value
Styrene Coatings
Tiered Products and Services Capture Value Throughout Market
Vinyl Acrylics Coatings
Energy & Water Solutions
Dow Coating Materials
Dow Building &
Construction
Driving Growth in Energy and Water
Localized Marketing and R&D with Global Expertise Maximizes Returns
Global Reach with a Local Approach
Identifying and building a strong presence in promising, high potential regions
Localization approach enables… ― Stronger customer relationships ― Agile research and development ― Tailored solutions to meet customer needs
Focus on “Down the Chain” Solutions
Business groupings create unique capability combinations to generate unique solutions to address significant end market issues
Increase technical resources to sell higher value-added solutions in focused applications
OBJECTIVE: Co-inject chemical additives with steam
Reduce energy consumption and GHG emissions
Increase oil production rate
APPROACH:
Build application expertise
Taking learnings directly to major oil sands operators
Shanghai,
China
Singapore Mumbai,
India São Paulo,
Brazil
Dubai,
United Arab
Emirates
Querétaro,
Mexico
Horgen,
Switzerland Collegeville,
Pennsylvania,
USA
Soma,
Japan
Warsaw,
Poland
Altona,
Australia
Innovation Pipeline Optimization… How We Do It ST
RO
NG
INN
OV
ATI
ON
PLA
YB
OO
K
IDEA
TIO
N
Narrower innovation aligned with market strategy
Consistent addition of innovative ideas to pipeline and cross-business synergies enable successful projects
Unparalleled material science research capabilities
Disciplined project analysis throughout ensures proper resource allocation
Continuous optimization of innovation pipeline necessary for success
Key Learnings & Practices
Highly-Targeted, Commercial-Ready Innovation
Priorities
Target attractive markets and grow our businesses
Deliver front-end commercial excellence
Continuously refine market choices and product offerings
Rely heavily on differentiated technical offerings
Narrow and Targeted Focus will Grow Top Line and Expand Margins