2015 strategic thinking for complex problem solving arnaud chevallier

7/25/2019 2015 Strategic Thinking for Complex Problem Solving Arnaud Chevallier

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Strategic

Thinking forProblem Solving

An Overview

Strategy Club2/12/2015

Arnaud Chevallier

Wednesday, February 25, 15
http://powerful-problem-solving.com/http://powerful-problem-solving.com/http://powerful-problem-solving.com/http://powerful-problem-solving.com/http://powerful-problem-solving.com/http://powerful-problem-solving.com/


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What skills and knowledge are employerslooking for in new hires?

What are you doing to acquire those?



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/ 42Copyright Arnaud Chevallier 2015. All rights reserved

Employers want more than just contentexpertise

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Content knowledge + Ethic Communication Teamwork

Problem solving Social responsibility

(Casner-Lotto & Barrington, 2006)

Increasingly, employers indicatea need for professionals who excel

in teamwork, communications,

problem identificationand

solutions, and the ability to have

a broad view.(Wendler et al., 2012)

Employers prioritize critical

thinking, communication, and

complex problem-solvingskillsover a job candidatesmajor field of study when hiring.

(AAU, 2013)

Work in a team structure Make decisions and solve

problems Plan, organize, and prioritize

work Communicate

(NACE, 2014)

http://www.carroll.edu/files/files/students/careerservices/job-outlook-2014-student-version.pdfhttps://www.aacu.org/leap/presidentstrust/compact/2013SurveySummaryhttps://www.aacu.org/leap/presidentstrust/compact/2013SurveySummaryhttps://www.aacu.org/leap/presidentstrust/compact/2013SurveySummaryhttp://www.carroll.edu/files/files/students/careerservices/job-outlook-2014-student-version.pdfhttp://www.carroll.edu/files/files/students/careerservices/job-outlook-2014-student-version.pdfhttps://www.aacu.org/leap/presidentstrust/compact/2013SurveySummaryhttps://www.aacu.org/leap/presidentstrust/compact/2013SurveySummaryhttp://pathwaysreport.org/rsc/pdf/19089_PathwaysRept_Links.pdfhttp://pathwaysreport.org/rsc/pdf/19089_PathwaysRept_Links.pdfhttp://www.p21.org/storage/documents/FINAL_REPORT_PDF09-29-06.pdfhttp://www.p21.org/storage/documents/FINAL_REPORT_PDF09-29-06.pdf


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For our purposes, lets define a problem as the gap

between where you are and where you want to be

4



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Taking this definition, we all spend our entire dayssolving problems

5

?Solve personal

problems

Solve work problems

Go to work

Solve work problems

Eat

Go home



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Of all problem types, lets focus on complex, ill-defined, non-immediate (CIDNI) ones

6

Complex

Diverse,

dynamic, and/or

interdependent

variables

Simple

Homogeneous,

static, and/or

independentvariables

Goals, solution path,

obstacles are clear

No clear path to

solution

Well defined Ill defined

What is the optimal

fuel quantity to put

in the A380 going

from Paris to NYCtoday?

How should we

reverse global

warming?

How many standard-

size ping pong balls

can fit in a20x40x10cm box?

+ Non immediate (i.e. you

have > weeks to solve it)

Source: Pretz et al. 2003; Woods, 2000; Frensch & Funke, 1995



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To solve CIDNI problems, you need both depth and

breadth of knowledge; this talk is about the latter

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Depth of knowledgein a discipline makesyou a specialist

Breadth ofknowledge acrossdisciplines makesyou a generalist

Ideal problem solver(or problem solvingteam) is T shaped

= generalist + specialist

StrategicThinking

Source: (Perkins & Salomon, 1989), (Gauch, 2003) [pp. 23] (Grasso & Burkins, 2010) [pp. 110]; (Kulkarni & Simon, 1988) [p. 140], (Sanbonmatsu, Posavac, Kardes, & Mantel, 1998),

(Sheppard, Macatangay, Colby, & Sullivan, 2009) [p. 175], (Katzenbach, 1993), (Savransky, 2002)[p. 18], (M. U. Smith, 1991) [pp. 1015].

Traditionalprograms +research

D

epth

Breadth



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You can become a better problem solver througha four-step approach

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1. Frame theproblem

2. Diagnose theproblem

3. Findsolutions

4. Implementsolution

WHAT WHY HOW DO



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This starts with framing the problem you shouldsolve

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1. Frame theproblem


3. Findsolutions


WHAT WHY HOW DO



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Framing the problem requires identifying thekey question

that encompasses all the other relevant questions

?

?

?

?

??

?

?

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Key

question

? ?

?

?

??

?

?

See also (Davis, Keeling, Schreier, & Williams, 2007)



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You mustidentify theright key question

Cartoon by Charles Addams

11



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To illustrate, lets look at a real case

A friend calls you, speaking frantically: My dogHarry is gone! I came home a few minutes agoand Harry wasnt there.

I left my house at noon, and when I cameback, around 4pm, he was missing. Our house

has a backyard with a doggy door in between.

Thats really strange: he hasnt escaped in monthsever since we fixed thegate, he cant.

Also, I fired the housekeeper this morning for poor performance. She blamed

Harry, saying he sheds too much, and she was upset. Im sure shes kidnappedhim.

He has no collar; how are we going to find him? Also the yard crew cametoday to mow the lawn.

Anyway, youre the master problem solver. Help!12



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First, you need to identify your overall objective

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HOWcan we getHarry back?

HOWdo weprevent this from

happening again?WHYis Harry

missing?

Time

Identify

WHY Harryis missing

IdentifyHOW

to get himback

1 2 3DO:Get

him back

In scope

DO:prevent

this fromhappening

again

IdentifyHOW

to prevent thisfrom happening

again

Out of scope



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Also, you need to think about the logistics of yourproject

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$$

Time

Otherresources

Money

PeopleEquipment

Facilities

Processes

Etc.



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Capture that information in a WHATcard (as in,whatyou want to do in your project)

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Project name: Find Harry the dog

Specific goals:

(what you aregoing to do)

1. Understand why Harry is missing (why)

2. Identify best way to get him back (how)

3. Get him back (do)

Out of scope:

(what you arenot going to do)

Prevent him fro

in the future (bimplementation

m going mis

th the how)

sing again

and the

Sponsor(s): John and his wife Other keystakeholders:

N/A

Time table: Actions Needed

time

Cumulative

time

1. Frame the problem (define the w a t) 2h 2h

2. Diagnose the problem (find the w )

Define the diagnostic key question and iden ify possible causes 4h 6h

Collect the diagnostic evidence, analyze, & draw conclusions 6h 12h

3. Identify solutions (find the how)

Define the solution key question and iden ify possible solution 6h 18h

Collect evidence, analyze, and decide which solution(s) to impl ment 6h 24h

4. Implement (do) 48h 72h

Resources: Money: Spend up to $150 for the why, $150 f

People: Up to 3 people dedicated full time

o the how,$300 for the do

Possible

problems:

Speaking with housekeeper can backfire Mitigation

actions:

Refrain from sp

housekeeper u

eaking with

til absolutel

the

y necessary



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1. Frame theproblem


3. Findsolutions


Now that youve identified whatproblem to solve,you need to understand whyyou have it

16

WHAT WHY HOW DO



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Our diagnostic is driven by a question with a whyroot that

enables you to uncover the root causes of the problem

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1. Frame theproblem


3. Findsolutions


Whyis Harry missing?

WHAT WHY HOW DO



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/ 42Copyright Arnaud Chevallier 2015. All rights reserved 18

To get to the diagnosis question, you need anintroductory flow: a situation and complication

Situation: My friend has a dogHarryand lives in a

house. Sometimes, heleaves Harry alone atthe house

Complication: Today, when my friend

came home after 4hours, Harry wasmissing

Diagnostic

key question:

Why is Harry missing?

Parts of theuniverse

Problems



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Capture this information in a diagnostic definition

cardi.e., a WHY card

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Situation: My friend has a dogHarryand lives in a house. Sometimes, he leaves

Harry alone at the house

Complication: Today, when my friend came home after being absent for 4 hours, Harry wasmissing

Diagnostic key

question:

Whyis Harry, the dog, missing [from my friends house where he was left

unattended for 4 hours]?

Decisionmakers:

My friend and his wife

Otherstakeholders:

N/A

Goals andlogistics:

Spend up to $150 on the diagnosis, design diagnostic analysis within 6hours, conduct diagnostic analysis within 12 hours

Voluntarily left-out answers:

Call the housekeeper to accuse her of kidnapping Harry without conductinga preliminary analysis firstConsider irrational explanations such as alien abductionConsider that friend is mistaken or lying when saying that Harry is not at

the House



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Next, build a WHYissue map: a graphical breakdown of

your problem space; issue maps have four basic rules

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... consistently diagnosticwhykey q mapsanswer auestion

questionso u onhowkey q

apsanswer auestion

2 ... progress fromuestion to the the koncl eysions

3... have mutuallycollectively exhabranches

xcluustive

ive and(MECE)

4 ... are insightful

Issuemaps...


T b ld b k d


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To build a map, breakyour diagnosis question intoparts

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F h h bl b l


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Further map out the problem space by exploringall possibilities

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F lf hi k b ll ibl


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Force yourself to think about all possiblescenarios. That willrequire some effort

23


N h d di i


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Now that youve structured your diagnosis,formulate your set of diagnostic hypotheses

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N i i i l i hi h i l d


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Next, prioritize your analysis, which may includediscarding hypotheses that seem too unlikely

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Test first because it has

implications on next steps

Discard (for now)

because too unlikely

!


Th l k f id i i f i h


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Then, look for evidencei.e., information thatyoull use to test your hypotheses

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Inspect the location: Quiet residential neighborhood

Talk with friend:

Friend was away from noon to 4pm Harry can go between house and yard

Harry hasnt escaped in months, since friend fixed the gate Harry has no collar

The backyard gate was closed when friend came back

Talk with neighbor: Saw a police car in front

of the house at 2:20pm

Saw Harry out on the

street by himself at~2:20pm

There are no holes in or under the fence

The backyard gate doesnt lock

Harry cant jump over the fence or gate

Friend fired housekeeper that morning because of poorperformance

Housekeeper was upset and blamed Harry for shedding

Harry escapes whenever possible, follows scents, and endsup lost

Whenever the lawn crew is there, Harry barks loudly

enough for the crew to hear

Talk with lawn crewsupervisor:

Crew came today

between 1 & 2pm Crew knows Harry but

didnt see him today


Y d h l


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Back yard

Front yard

House

Doggy doorYard gate

House door

Drive way

Street

Sidewalk

Street

Where the yard crew

park their truck

Where neighbor saw

Harry by himself

Solid fence

You may re-organize your evidence to help you gain some

understanding, perhaps in a timeline or a map of the events

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U id iti d l i t t t


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Use evidence, presuppositions and logic to testyour hypotheses

28

See (Austhink, 2006), (Gauch, 2003) [pp. 124131], (Twardy, 2010)


Th d id if th id t t h


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Then decide if the evidence contrary to eachhypothesis is sufficient to discard it

29

!Wednesday, February 25, 15


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This will leadyou to identify

a subset ofroot cause(s) to

focus on

30


N that kn h ha e r r blem


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Now that you know why you have your problem,you can search, evaluate, and select solutions

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1. Frame theproblem


3. Findsolutions


WHAT WHY HOW DO


Start by building a solution definition card


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Start by building a solution definition card

i.e., a HOW card

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Situation:

My friend has a dogHarrywho went missing a few hours ago

Complication: While we initially suspected foul play, we now believe that no-one ispreventing us from recovering Harry

Solution key

question: Howcan we get Harry (the dog) back, knowing that no-one ispreventing us from recovering him?

Decisionmakers: My friend and his wife

Otherstakeholders:

My friends neighbors and other people that we enlist to partake in thesearch

Goals andlogistics:

Identify all solutions within 4 hours; Pick and implement subset within 12 hours;Bring Harry back within 24 hours

Voluntarily left-

out answers:

Ask neighbors to invest significant time in locating Harry


To identify possible solutions develop a


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To identify possible solutions, develop a

HOWmap

33


K d illi


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Keep drilling

until your map

is sufficiently

explicit



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Next, formulatehypotheses...


identify attributes to evaluate the alternatives


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identify attributes to evaluate the alternativesand decide which to pursue

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Individual

likelihood ofsuccess

TimelinessQuickness

of success

Lack of

setuptime

CostWeighted

score Ranking

Weight 30% 40% 20% 5% 5%

H1: Searching the

neighborhood50 100 100 100 90 84.5 2

H3: Informingpeople likely to

know aboutmissing animals

100 100 80 100 100 96 1

H4: Posting

virtual

announcements

15 20 20 0 0 16.5 4

H5: Checkingannouncements

0 0 0 50 100 7.5 5H6: EnablingHarry to comeback on his own

30 90 100 100 100 75 3



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All thats left is to implement your solution

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1. Frame theproblem


3. Findsolutions


WHAT WHY HOW DO


Implementing a solution requires at the very least


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Here is whatwe need todo, and here is why...

We believe our best chance to recover Harry is to focus on

putting announcementsin the street and alerting his vet and

pet associationsthat he is missing, here is why:

Support point #1

Support point #2

Support point #3

...


Implementing a solution requires, at the very least,to sell it...


and sometimes to actually manage the


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Task Owner Due Date

Design and printannouncements

Me 5pm

Post announcements All 8pm

Alert vet John 4:30pmLook up pet associations Jane 6pm

Alert pet associations John 8pm


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... and sometimes to actually manage theimplementation yourself

... so, please doX and Ill doY


Also integral to implementation is evaluating your


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Also integral to implementation is evaluating yoursolution and course-correcting as you progress

40

As sailors, followa general strategy

but adapt it tointegrate newdevelopments



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And when youre done, celebrate!


In summary proactively improve your strategic


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In summary, proactively improve your strategicthinking

Employers want you to be a good specialist

anda generalist

So develop your strategic thinking skills

Take ENGI/LEAD 545

Read powerful-problem-solving.com

Read timvangelder.com

Email [email protected]

42

Depth

Breadth

mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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References

American Association of Universities (2013). Ittake more than a major: Employer priorities forcollege learning and student success. [p. 4]

Austhink (2006, December 7, 2006). "ArgumentMapping Tutorials." Retrieved January 14, 2014,from http://austhink.com/reason/tutorials/.

Casner-Lotto, J. and L. Barrington (2006). AreThey Really Ready to Work? Employers'Perspectives on the Basic Knowledge andApplied Skills of New Entrants to the 21st CenturyUS Workforce, ERIC. [p. 8]

Davis, I., et al. (2007). "The McKinsey approachto problem solving." McKinsey Staff Paper(66):

27.Frensch, P. A. and J. Funke, Eds. (1995).Complex problem solving: The Europeanperspective. New York, Psychology Press.

Perkins, D. N. and G. Salomon (1989). "Arecognitive skills context-bound?" Educationalresearcher 18(1): 16-25.

Gauch, H. G. (2003). Scientific method inpractice, Cambridge University Press. [pp 23],[pp. 124131]

Grasso, D. and M. B. Burkins (2010). Beyondtechnology: The holistic advantage. Holistic

Engineering Education. D. Grasso and M. B.Burkins, Springer: 1-10.

Katzenbach, J. R. (1993). The wisdom of teams:Creating the high-performance organization,Harvard Business Press.

Kulkarni, D. and H. A. Simon (1988). "Theprocesses of scientific discovery: The strategy ofexperimentation." Cognitive science 12(2):139-175.National Association of Colleges and Employers(2014). The job outlook for the class of 2014. [p.4]

Pretz, J. E., et al. (2003). Recognizing, defining,and representing problems. The Psychology ofProblem Solving. J. E. Davidson and R. J.Sternberg. New York, Cambridge UniversityPress: 3-30.

Sanbonmatsu, D. M., et al. (1998). "Selectivehypothesis testing." Psychonomic Bulletin &

Review 5(2): 197-220.

Sheppard, S., et al. (2009). Educating engineers:Designing for the future of the field, Jossey-BassSan Francisco, CA.

Savransky, S. D. (2002). Engineering of creativity:Introduction to TRIZ methodology of inventiveproblem solving, CRC Press

Smith, M. U. (1991). A view from biology. Towarda unified theory of problem solving: Views fromthe content domains. M. U. Smith. New York,Routledge: 1-21.

Twardy, C. (2010). "Argument maps improvecritical thinking." Teaching Philosophy 27(2):95-116.

Wendler, C., et al. (2012). "Pathways throughGraduate School and into Careers." EducationalTesting Service. [p. 33]

Woods, D. R. (2000). "An Evidence"BasedStrategy for Problem Solving." Journal ofEngineering Education 89(4): 443-459.
http://www.p21.org/storage/documents/FINAL_REPORT_PDF09-29-06.pdfhttp://google.com/http://google.com/http://google.com/http://google.com/http://www.carroll.edu/files/files/students/careerservices/job-outlook-2014-student-version.pdfhttp://www.carroll.edu/files/files/students/careerservices/job-outlook-2014-student-version.pdfhttp://www.p21.org/storage/documents/FINAL_REPORT_PDF09-29-06.pdfhttp://www.p21.org/storage/documents/FINAL_REPORT_PDF09-29-06.pdfhttp://www.p21.org/storage/documents/FINAL_REPORT_PDF09-29-06.pdfhttp://www.p21.org/storage/documents/FINAL_REPORT_PDF09-29-06.pdfhttp://www.p21.org/storage/documents/FINAL_REPORT_PDF09-29-06.pdfhttp://www.p21.org/storage/documents/FINAL_REPORT_PDF09-29-06.pdfhttp://www.p21.org/storage/documents/FINAL_REPORT_PDF09-29-06.pdfhttp://www.p21.org/storage/documents/FINAL_REPORT_PDF09-29-06.pdfhttp://www.p21.org/storage/documents/FINAL_REPORT_PDF09-29-06.pdfhttp://www.p21.org/storage/documents/FINAL_REPORT_PDF09-29-06.pdfhttp://austhink.com/reason/tutorials/http://austhink.com/reason/tutorials/http://google.com/http://google.com/http://google.com/http://google.com/http://google.com/http://google.com/

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