20150903-impact of china reduced imports on coal trade-mercuria

8/16/2019 20150903-Impact of China Reduced Imports on Coal Trade-Mercuria

1/17

The impact of China’s reduced imports onseaborne coal trade in the Asia-Pacific region

Dr. Fabio GabrieliDirector

Dry Bulk and Energy Commodity Strategist

Coaltrans Japan3-4 September 2015Hilton Tokyo, Shinjuku


2/17

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3/17

Agenda

What volumes of coal are being supplied to which

destinations?

How long is global oversupply expected to last?

Is there a replacement for China in sight?


4/17

In 2013 Chinese imports peaked at levels similar to thewhole Atlantic importing demand

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5/17

By the end of the year Chinese imports may drop by90mt vs. 2013 levels, more than 10% of current global

seaborne trade flows

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6/17

AUS growth was pretty diversified, ZAF was forced toswitch tons back to ATL, RUS dumped coal into newmarkets while IDN drop wasn’t only about volume

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7/17

Indonesian output peaked in 2013 and is finally trendingdown…

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8/17

…and by end of the year Indo may lose ~30mt ofbituminous coal vs. 2013 levels due poor economics

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9/17

Is Indo production drop (quality-wise) relevant, when…

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10/17

…continued dollar strengthening…

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11/17

…all time low freight rates, halved diesel prices…

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12/17

…and increasing productivity reduced AUS averageFOB costs by ~40% vs. 2012 levels?

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13/17

So, how low can coal prices go before SnD balances?

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14/17

While global demand falters in 2015-2016 to then add+100mt by 2020…

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15/17

…will global supply underperform demand?

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16/17

Will Indo and China “switch” roles thru 2017-2020?


17/17

Thank you for your attention!Comments and/or questions are welcome…

20150903-impact of china reduced imports on coal trade-mercuria

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