Astrophysics Future Flagship Mission StudiesThe Strategy

Prepared by:PCOS & COR Program Office

July 25, 2016

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TableofContents• Introduction• PotentialStartDateforDecadal2020Mission• StrategyforDecadal2020• StudyObjectives• WhattheProgramOfficecandoforyou• MyPersonalPerspective

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Background

• AvailablefundstodevelopDecadal2020missionconceptsareconsiderablylessthanwhatwasavailablefor2010Decadal– LISA,IXO&JDEMspentseveralmilliondollars/yearintheyears

approachingthedecadal– Additional~$20Mwerespentforsmallerconceptstudiesinthe

finalyear– Heavyemphasiswasplacedontheengineeringpointdesignsin

2010• Decadal2020missionstart(Phase-A)istiedtoWFIRST

launchdate– WFIRSTplannedLRDis2024

• Adifferentstrategyisrequiredtoachieveameaningfuldecadalreviewin2020

July 25, 2016

PotentialMissionStartDate

JWSTLaunchDate2018

BudgetRequestForWFIRSTMissionStart

2016

WFIRSTMissionPhase-AStart2017

WFIRSTPredictedLaunchDate

2024

BudgetRequestForNewMissionStart2022

Givesusminimum3yearsfromDecadal2020to• Conductfocusedengineeringstudies• Maturecostestimates• Matureenablingtechnologies

Decadal2020MissionStart2023

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StrategyFor2020Decadal• Theadoptedstrategyproposesthat:

– TheNRCfocusesonprioritizingAstrophysicsScienceratherthanmissionconcepts

– NASAfocusesonimplementingthehighestpriorityscienceAFTER thedecadalprioritization

• Thestrategystrivesto:– Maximizethefocusonsciencecasedevelopmentandtechnology

maturation– Minimizeprematurefocusonmissionpointdesignsanddetailed

costestimates– Providethenecessaryinformationtothedecadalcommitteefor

prioritizingsciencecasesthatarepracticallyachievableinthenextdecade

– Makeeffectiveuseoftheperiodpost-decadaltodevelopmissionpointdesignsandcostestimatesforviablenewmissionstarts

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Ingredientsfor2020Strategy• StrategyforDecadal2020strivesto:

– MakethemostefficientuseoftheavailablefundsandtimeinthePre-Decadalyears(FY16-FY19)• Balancedinvestmentsbetweentechnologydevelopmentandmissionconcept studies

– MakethemostefficientuseoftheavailablefundsandavailabletimeinPost-Decadalyears leadinguptothemissionstart(FY21-24)• Focusedinvestmentsinhighestpriorities

– Energizethesciencecommunitytothemaximumextentpossible– Engagetheinternationalpartnersasearlyaspractical– Engagetheaerospaceindustrialbaseto

• LeverageinternalR&Dfunds• Extractfrom“DoD”technologies

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Decadal2020MissionTimeline

NASALedActivityNASASponsored,CommunityLeadActivity NRCActivity

CSTFormulation• RFI• Worksho

p

ROMCostsWhitePaperssubmittaltoDecadal

FY202020DecadalScience

Prioritization

CompetedSATDevelopment

FY20-21Develop

ImplementationPlan

FY21-22CompetedMissionConceptStudies

forHighestPriorityScience

FY21-24DirectedTechnologyDevelopment

FY22FormulateBudgetRequestforNew

Start

FY23InitiatePhase-A

CSTFormulation• RFI• Worksho

p

FY16ScienceTeamFormulation

FY17-18NotionalMissions• DRM• COSTEstimate

ROMCostsFY18-19TechnologyRoadmaps

WhitePaperssubmittaltoDecadal

FY19submittaltoDecadal

IndustrialPartnerships

Inde

pend

ent

Commun

ityW

hite

Pape

rs

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StudyObjectives• Toanswerthefollowingquestions:

– Isthesciencecompelling?– Canamissionbeimplementedwithoutviolatinglawsofnatureor

requiringunobtainium?– Isthepathwaytoachievingtechnologymaturitywellunderstood,and

achievable?• WhatisNASAAstrophysicsTryingtoAccomplish?

– Fourqualitystudieswith:• Order-of-magnitudeincreasefromthecurrentscientificcapabilities• Roughlythesamedegreeofproductmaturity• CATE- ableparameters

– Allstudiesshould:• Demonstratefeasibilitybyanalysis• Derivetheminimumdatatoperformanindependentcostestimate• Produceasupportingtechnologydevelopmentroadmap• Demonstrateaviableriskreductionpathway(pathtogreen)• Elaborateonthescalabilityofsciencevs.riskandcost

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Three-SpaceofScience,CostandRisk

The“targetdesign”representsapointwithintheavailabletradespace:specificallyapointwithinthe“sweetspot”inthat3-spacethatisfeasibleandwarrantscriticalexamination.

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Summary• Theadoptedstrategymakesthemostefficientuseofthe

Pre-DecadalbudgetandPost-Decadaltime– MakestheNRCresponsibleforprioritizingtheAstrophysics

Science– MakesNASAresponsibleforengineeringthemissionfor

achievingthehighestfractionoftheprioritizedsciencewithinthebudgetandpoliticalconstraintsofthedecade

• Thestrategy– Right-sizesPre-Decadalinvestmentsbetweenmissionstudies

andtechnologydevelopment– Right-sizestheinvestmentsbetweenPreandPost-Decadaltime

period– Providesmaximumflexibilityforreactingtobudgetaryrealities

ofthenextdecade• Proposedproductsfromthestudiesprovidesufficient

informationforscienceprioritization

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TheProgramOfficeishereforyou• Expertiseinseveralrelevantareas

– Missionconceptdevelopment– Technologyroadmaps– Riskassessment– Financialmanagement– Scienceadvocacy/conferenceactivities

• Callonusfor– Consultation– Soundingboard– Redteamreviews– Budgetre-phasing

• NegotiationsareproceedingwiththeNRCforustoengageAerospacetoprovideguidanceoncostandriskassessments

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MyPersonalPerspective

ThepredictedbudgetwedgePost-WFIRSTwillhaveexternaldemandsonit:

FromwithintheAgencyOtherpressingnationalprioritiesatthattime

Thebestwaytopreservethebudgetwedgeistobuildacompellingsciencecase:

Notonlyforyourcommunity,NotonlyfortheAstrophysicscommunityatlarge,Butfortheentirenation

SothatourstakeholdersinOMB&Congresshavenochoicebuttoleaveitalone