2016 2020 preliminary financial forecast

2016 – 2020 Preliminary Financial ForecastCity of Port Angeles July 28, 2015

Bottom Line Up Front –30,000’ View of the General Fund

▪ Revenue:

▪ Loss of NPIUSA electric utility tax represents estimated $350,000 - $450,000 yearly loss

▪ Growth is a significant challenge

▪ No readily apparent business or industry moving in to town to replace lost revenue

▪ Ability to sustain General Fund support for Street Fund ($846,000) & Medic 1 ($448,000) is becoming more difficult & problematic

▪ Expenditures:

▪ Priority Setting & prior reductions have put the City in a much better position to address current & future problems

▪ Base expenditure projection does not include COLA for years 2016 – 2020

▪ Police & Fire have access to binding interest arbitration to settle contracts

▪ Internal equity challenges

2

Fiscal Sustainability Didn’t Happen by Accident

▪ Diligent & hard work in prior years:

▪ 2012: 8.5 FTE Reductions

▪ 2013 & 2014: Long-Range Financial Planning

▪ 2015: Priority Setting Process Conducted

3

2016 – 2020 Financial Forecast - Preliminary

▪ Forecasts are for the following funds:

▪ General Fund #001

▪ Forecasts are not included for the following funds –will be in Round #2--2016 – 2020 Financial Forecast:

▪ Lodging Tax Fund #101

▪ Street Fund #102

▪ Real Estate Excise Tax 1 (REET-1) Fund #105

▪ PenCom Fund #107

▪ Port Angeles Fine Arts Center Fund #156


▪ Medic 1 Fund #409

▪ Equipment Services Fund #501

▪ Information Technology Fund #502

▪ Self-Insurance Fund #503

▪ Forecasts for utilities were included as part of utility

review & rate setting process

▪ Electric Utility Fund #401

▪ Water Utility Fund #402

▪ Wastewater Utility Fund #403

▪ Solid Waste Fund #404

▪ Stormwater Fund #406

▪ Electric Capital Fund #451

▪ Water Capital Fund #452

▪ Wastewater Capital Fund #453

▪ Solid Waste Capital Fund #454

▪ Stormwater Capital Fund #456

▪ Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) Fund #463

4

General Fund Forecast Includes

▪ Revenues:

▪ 310 Taxes

▪ 320 Licenses & Permits

▪ 330 Intergovernmental Revenue

▪ 340 Charges for Goods & Services

▪ 350 Fines & Penalties

▪ 360 Miscellaneous Revenue

▪ 370 Proprietary/Trust Revenue

▪ 380 Non-Revenues

▪ 390 Other Financing Sources

▪ Expenditures:

▪ 10 Salaries

▪ 20 Personnel Benefits

▪ 30 Supplies

▪ 40 Services

▪ 50 Intergovernmental Services & Pmts.

▪ 60 Capital Outlay

▪ 70 Debt Service – Principal Pmts.

▪ 80 Debt Service – Interest/Other Pmts.

▪ 90 Interfund Payments for Services

5

General Fund Revenue ForecastSelected Inflation Factors

6

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

REVENUE

Overall, Combined 0.66% 1.98% 1.96% 2.45% 2.54%

Property Tax 1.50% 1.02% 1.02% 1.02% 1.02%

Sales Tax - CoPA

CoPA Direct 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.50% 1.50%

EUGA Shared 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50%

Utility Tax Combined

Electric Utility Tax 2.52% 2.17% 0.27% 5.05% 6.36%

Water Utility Tax 5.33% 4.23% 4.23% 4.23% 4.25%

Wastewater Utility Tax 5.35% 5.35% 5.35% 5.35% 5.35%

Solid Waste-Collections Utility Tax 11.25% 5.09% 5.24% 3.32% -0.07%

Solid Waste-Transfer Station Utility Tax 4.22% 4.21% 4.20% 4.21% 4.20%

Stormwater Utility Tax 25.00% 20.00% 2.98% 3.00% 3.02%

Telephone Tax 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%

Sales Tax-Criminal Justice 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00%

Telecable Franchise Fee 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%

Building Permits -27.93% 1.50% 1.48% 1.50% 1.52%

Liquor Excise / Liquor Profit 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%

Municipal Court Fines 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Investment Interest 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%

General Fund Expenditure ForecastSelected Inflation Factors

7

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

EXPENDITURES

Overall, Combined

Salaries & Wages 0.33% 0.33% 0.33% 0.33% 0.33%

Personnel Benefits

FICA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Medicare 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

PERS / LEOFF 0.00% 0.00% 2.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Health Insurance 5.00% 5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 5.00%

Supplies

Office Supplies 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%

Services

Travel & Training 2.00% 2.00% 3.50% 4.00% 4.00%

Utilities 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%

Intergovernmental Services & Payments

Transfers 1.00% 2.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%

Capital Outlay 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Interfund Payments for Services 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

General Fund Revenue vs. ExpendituresHistory & Preliminary Forecast

8

$12,000,000

$14,000,000

$16,000,000

$18,000,000

$20,000,000

$22,000,000

$24,000,000

$26,000,000

G.F. Expend. With 2.0% COLA G.F. Exp. Forecast w/o COLA

G.F. Expend. Without COLA General Fund Revenue

General Fund Preliminary Forecast + Net Surplus / Shortfall

9

Revenue Forecast

Beginning

Expenditure

Forecast --

NO COLA

Net Surplus /

<Shortfall>

2.0% COLA Costs +

Benefit Roll-Up

Costs

Adjusted

Expenditure

Forecast

Adjusted Net

Surplus /

<Shortfall>

2016 est.$19,807,400 $19,877,100 ($69,700) $210,600 $20,087,700 ($280,300)

2017 est.$20,198,900 $20,062,200 $136,700 $610,700 $20,672,900 ($474,000)

2018 est.$20,594,300 $20,283,500 $310,800 $1,204,000 $21,487,500 ($893,200)

2019 est.$21,099,100 $20,621,500 $477,600 $1,994,600 $22,616,100 ($1,517,000)

2020 est.$21,635,700 $21,067,800 $567,900 $2,986,300 $24,054,100 ($2,418,400)

General Fund Revenue History

$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-A2

Compound Growth Rate:• 2005 – 2015 A-2 @ 2.40%

10

General Fund Revenue History & Preliminary Forecast

$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

11

Compound Growth Rate:• 2005 – 2015 @ 2.40%

• 2005 – 2020 est. @ 2.06%

General Fund Revenue History & Preliminary Forecast

12

YearGen. Fund

Revenue

Variance from

Prior Year--$$

Variance from

Prior Year--%

Compound

Growth Rate

2005 $15,518,236 n/a n/a $15,518,000

2006 $15,765,530 $247,294 1.59% $15,866,000

2007 $17,127,922 $1,362,392 8.64% $16,221,000

2008 $17,607,552 $479,630 2.80% $16,584,000

2009 $17,114,570 ($492,982) -2.80% $16,955,000

2010 $18,307,727 $1,193,157 6.97% $17,335,000

2011 $18,489,828 $182,101 0.99% $17,723,000

2012 $17,750,665 ($739,163) -4.00% $18,120,000

2013 $19,256,908 $1,506,243 8.49% $18,526,000

2014 $20,208,458 $951,550 4.94% $18,941,000

2015-A2 $19,678,500 ($529,958) -2.62% $19,365,000

2016 est. $19,807,400 $128,900 0.66% $19,799,000

2017 est. $20,198,900 $391,500 1.98% $20,242,000

2018 est. $20,594,300 $395,400 1.96% $20,695,000

2019 est. $21,099,100 $504,800 2.45% $21,159,000

2020 est. $21,635,700 $536,600 2.54% $21,633,000

General Fund Expenditure History

13

$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

$30,000,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-A2

Compound Growth Rate:• 2005 – 2015 A2 @ 2.61%

General Fund ExpendituresHistory & Preliminary Forecast

14

$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

$30,000,000

Compound Growth Rate:• 2005 – 2015 A2 @ 2.61%

• 2005 – 2020 without COLA @ 2.06%

• 2005 – 2020 with 2.0% COLA @ 3.01%

Forecast with

2.0% COLA

Tax Revenue History & Preliminary Forecast

15

Year Property Tax

"Street Fund

#102" Property

Tax 2005 - 2012

Sales Tax Utility Tax Telephone TaxOther Tax-

Based Revenue

Total Tax

Revenue + (Street Property

Tax 2005 - 2012)

Variance from

Prior year -- $

Variance from

Prior year -- %

2005 $2,968,648 $463,480 $2,822,760 $2,655,291 $556,244 $424,479 $9,890,902 n/a n/a

2006 $2,958,258 $468,115 $3,254,674 $2,884,605 $538,041 $282,544 $10,386,237 $495,335 5.01%

2007 $3,317,498 $472,796 $3,357,780 $3,257,780 $505,043 $291,281 $11,202,178 $815,941 7.86%

2008 $3,397,812 $477,524 $3,209,825 $3,353,324 $639,727 $320,967 $11,399,179 $197,001 1.76%

2009 $3,477,575 $482,299 $2,763,427 $3,506,125 $636,501 $71,343 $10,937,269 ($461,910) -4.05%

2010 $3,553,949 $482,299 $2,877,100 $3,743,658 $547,323 $254,458 $11,458,787 $521,518 4.77%

2011 $3,585,314 $482,299 $2,876,603 $3,801,137 $698,748 $438,676 $11,882,778 $423,991 3.70%

2012 $3,630,678 $482,299 $2,783,743 $3,810,091 $481,088 $422,861 $11,610,761 ($272,017) -2.29%

2013 $4,193,648 $0 $2,872,277 $4,280,783 $562,449 $469,477 $12,378,633 $767,872 6.61%

2014 $4,267,485 $0 $2,887,072 $4,370,413 $617,965 $524,120 $12,667,054 $288,421 2.33%

2015-A2 $4,345,000 $0 $2,890,000 $3,923,200 $570,000 $488,100 $12,216,300 ($450,754) -3.56%

2016 est. $4,410,200 $0 $2,923,100 $4,114,600 $609,000 $465,100 $12,522,000 $305,700 2.50%

2017 est. $4,498,400 $0 $2,956,700 $4,285,500 $618,100 $473,400 $12,832,100 $310,100 2.48%

2018 est. $4,588,400 $0 $2,990,900 $4,403,800 $627,400 $483,100 $13,093,600 $261,500 2.04%

2019 est. $4,680,200 $0 $3,039,900 $4,609,800 $636,800 $494,300 $13,461,000 $367,400 2.81%

2020 est. $4,773,800 $0 $3,089,800 $4,840,800 $646,400 $507,300 $13,858,100 $397,100 2.95%

2015 General Fund RevenuesBudget Amendment #2

310 Taxes, $12,216,300 , 62%

320 Licenses & Permits, $616,200 , 3%

330 Intergovernmental Revenues, $584,800 , 3%

340 Charges for Goods & Services, $5,797,500 , 29%

350 Fines & Penalties, $185,000 , 1%

360 Miscellaneous Revenue, $156,700 , 1%

390 Other Financing Sources, $122,000 , 1%

16

Property Tax Assessed ValueHistory & Preliminary Forecast

17

$0

$500,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$1,500,000,000

$2,000,000,000

$2,500,000,000

Assessed Value Compound Growth Rate Forecast Growth Rate

Assessed Value & Property Tax Levy RatesHistory & Preliminary Forecast

18

Year Assessed ValueVariance from

Prior Year--$$

Variance from

Prior Year--%

Regular Levy

Rate

2005 $1,148,440,522 $83,950,020 7.89% $3.0552

2006 $1,281,703,518 $133,262,996 11.60% $2.8051

2007 $1,595,493,428 $313,789,910 24.48% $2.3875

2008 $1,952,176,500 $356,683,072 22.36% $1.9985

2009 $1,994,259,574 $42,083,074 2.16% $2.0129

2010 $1,757,276,293 ($236,983,281) -11.88% $2.2918

2011 $1,735,945,788 ($21,330,505) -1.21% $2.3561

2012 $1,595,868,974 ($140,076,814) -8.07% $2.5752

2013 $1,519,228,137 ($76,640,837) -4.80% $2.7825

2014 $1,451,933,471 ($67,294,666) -4.43% $2.9537

2015-A2 $1,438,413,451 ($13,520,020) -0.93% $3.0292

2016 est. $1,445,606,000 $7,192,549 0.50% $3.0508

2017 est. $1,463,676,000 $18,070,000 1.25% $3.0734

2018 est. $1,496,609,000 $32,933,000 2.25% $3.0659

2019 est. $1,545,249,000 $48,640,000 3.25% $3.0288

2020 est. $1,599,333,000 $54,084,000 3.50% $2.9849

Property Tax (Includes Property Tax Collected by the Street Fund #102 thru 2012)History &

History & Preliminary Forecast

19

$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

$6,000,000

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

-A2

20

16

est

.

201

7 es

t.

201

8 es

t.

20

19

est

.

20

20

est

.

Year

Regular

Property Tax

Collection (Includes "Street

Fund #102"

Property Tax

2005 - 2012)

Variance from

Prior Year--$$

Variance from

Prior Year--%

2005 $3,432,128 $148,000 0.0452

2006 $3,426,373 ($5,755) -0.17%

2007 $3,790,294 $363,921 10.62%

2008 $3,875,336 $85,042 2.24%

2009 $3,959,874 $84,538 2.18%

2010 $4,036,248 $76,374 1.93%

2011 $4,067,613 $31,365 0.78%

2012 $4,112,977 $45,364 1.12%

2013 $4,193,648 $80,671 1.96%

2014 $4,267,485 $73,837 1.76%

2015-A2 $4,345,000 $77,515 1.82%

2016 est. $4,410,200 $65,200 1.50%

2017 est. $4,498,400 $88,200 2.00%

2018 est. $4,588,400 $90,000 2.00%

2019 est. $4,680,200 $91,800 2.00%

2020 est. $4,773,800 $93,600 2.00%

Sales Tax – CoPA Regular + EUGA SharedHistory & Preliminary Forecast

20

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

$3,500,000

$4,000,000

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

-A2

20

16

est

.

20

17

est

.

20

18

est

.

20

19

est

.

20

20

est

.

CoPA Sales Tax EUGA Share Sales Tax

YearCoPA Regular

Sales Tax

EUGA Shared

Sales TaxTotal Sales Tax

Variance from

Prior Year--$$

Variance from

Prior Year--%

2005 $2,822,760 $0 $2,822,760 $189,430 0.0719

2006 $3,254,674 $0 $3,254,674 $431,914 15.30%

2007 $3,336,476 $21,304 $3,357,780 $103,106 3.17%

2008 $3,181,450 $28,375 $3,209,825 ($147,955) -4.41%

2009 $2,736,367 $27,059 $2,763,427 ($446,398) -13.91%

2010 $2,779,435 $97,665 $2,877,100 $113,673 4.11%

2011 $2,832,116 $44,487 $2,876,603 ($497) -0.02%

2012 $2,708,666 $75,077 $2,783,743 ($92,860) -3.23%

2013 $2,763,573 $108,704 $2,872,277 $88,533 3.18%

2014 $2,769,404 $117,668 $2,887,072 $14,795 0.52%

2015-A2 $2,770,000 $120,000 $2,890,000 $2,928 0.10%

2016 est. $2,797,700 $125,400 $2,923,100 $33,100 1.15%

2017 est. $2,825,700 $131,000 $2,956,700 $33,600 1.15%

2018 est. $2,854,000 $136,900 $2,990,900 $34,200 1.16%

2019 est. $2,896,800 $143,100 $3,039,900 $49,000 1.64%

2020 est. $2,940,000 $149,500 $3,089,500 $49,600 1.63%

Utility Taxes CombinedHistory & Preliminary Forecast

21

YearElectric Utility

Tax

Water Utility

Tax

Wastewater

Utility Tax

Solid Waste-

Collections Tax

Solid Waste-

Trans. Sta. Tax

Stormwater

Utility TaxTotal Utility Tax

Variance over

Prior Yr. -- $$

Variance over

Prior Yr.--%

2005 $1,622,652 $259,395 $296,872 $211,723 $241,200 $23,449 $2,655,291 ($29,114) -0.0108

2006 $1,690,571 $313,429 $340,035 $243,003 $268,519 $29,048 $2,884,605 $229,314 8.64%

2007 $1,796,586 $359,553 $415,894 $267,996 $389,238 $28,513 $3,257,780 $373,175 12.94%

2008 $1,832,256 $367,452 $477,803 $240,177 $378,921 $56,715 $3,353,324 $95,544 2.93%

2009 $1,762,508 $487,201 $595,653 $228,789 $373,840 $58,134 $3,506,125 $152,801 4.56%

2010 $1,900,966 $522,452 $646,316 $222,062 $393,706 $58,156 $3,743,658 $237,533 6.77%

2011 $1,962,500 $502,878 $655,125 $220,993 $401,186 $58,455 $3,801,137 $57,479 1.54%

2012 $2,034,757 $464,157 $637,030 $198,877 $407,516 $58,842 $3,801,179 $42 0.00%

2013 $2,264,622 $515,209 $720,586 $234,403 $437,099 $88,049 $4,259,968 $458,789 12.07%

2014 $2,204,090 $559,252 $764,762 $283,203 $508,763 $119,691 $4,439,761 $179,793 4.22%

2015-A2 $1,751,900 $568,400 $734,100 $240,000 $512,400 $116,400 $3,923,200 ($516,561) -11.63%

2016 est. $1,796,000 $598,700 $773,400 $267,000 $534,000 $145,500 $4,114,600 $191,400 4.88%

2017 est. $1,835,000 $624,000 $814,800 $280,600 $556,500 $174,600 $4,285,500 $170,900 4.15%

2018 est. $1,840,000 $650,400 $858,400 $295,300 $579,900 $179,800 $4,403,800 $118,300 2.76%

2019 est. $1,933,000 $677,900 $904,300 $305,100 $604,300 $185,200 $4,609,800 $206,000 4.68%

2020 est. $2,056,000 $706,700 $952,700 $304,900 $629,700 $190,800 $4,840,800 $231,000 5.01%

Utility Tax Collection History & Preliminary Forecast

22

$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

$6,000,000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

-A2

2016

est

.

2017

est

.

2018

est

.

2019

est

.

2020

est

.

Electric Utility Tax Water Utility Tax

Wastewater Utility Tax Solid Waste Utility Tax

S.W. Transfer Station Utility Tax Stormwater Utility Tax

2015 Combined Utility TaxBudget vs. Actual

23

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2015 Budget Beginning 2015 Budget Amend #2 Actual

2015 Electric Utility TaxBudget vs. Actual

24

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2015 Budget Beginning 2015 Budget Amend #2 Actual

Electric Utility TaxHistory & Preliminary Forecast

25

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Electric Utility Tax 1,547,497 1,683,988 1,622,652 1,690,571 1,796,586 1,832,256

Variance from Prior Year--$$ n/a 136,491 (61,336) 67,919 106,015 35,670

Variance from Prior Year--% n/a 8.82% -3.64% 4.19% 6.27% 1.99%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Variance from Prior Year--$$ (69,748) 138,458 61,534 72,257 238,408 (75,114)

Variance from Prior Year--% -3.81% 7.86% 3.24% 3.68% 11.72% -3.30%

2015 Amd. #2 2016 est. 2017 est. 2018 est. 2019 est. 2020 est.


Variance from Prior Year--$$ (446,151) 44,100 39,000 5,000 93,000 123,000

Variance from Prior Year--% -20.30% 2.52% 2.17% 0.27% 5.05% 6.36%

Note -- Beginning 2015 Budget $2,418,800

Elec. Utility Tax Reduction $666,900

License & Permit RevenueHistory & Preliminary Forecast

26

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000YearLicenses &

Permits

Variance from

Prior Year--$$

Variance from

Prior Year--%

2005 $574,683 $187,894 0.4548

2006 $526,404 ($48,279) -8.40%

2007 $535,939 $9,535 1.81%

2008 $401,721 ($134,218) -25.04%

2009 $481,052 $79,331 19.75%

2010 $413,115 ($67,937) -14.12%

2011 $662,298 $249,183 60.32%

2012 $335,552 ($326,746) -49.34%

2013 $376,522 $40,970 12.21%

2014 $412,639 $36,117 9.59%

2015-A2 $616,200 $203,561 49.33%

2016 est. $524,500 ($91,700) -14.88%

2017 est. $531,900 $7,400 1.41%

2018 est. $539,400 $7,500 1.41%

2019 est. $547,100 $7,700 1.43%

2020 est. $555,100 $8,000 1.46%

Intergovernmental RevenueHistory & Preliminary Forecast

27

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000YearIntergov'tl.

Revenue

Variance from

Prior Year--$$

Variance from

Prior Year--%

2005 $540,820 $177,004 0.4865

2006 $383,308 ($157,512) -29.12%

2007 $455,844 $72,536 18.92%

2008 $656,507 $200,663 44.02%

2009 $567,442 ($89,065) -13.57%

2010 $838,897 $271,455 47.84%

2011 $718,901 ($119,996) -14.30%

2012 $839,975 $121,074 16.84%

2013 $707,612 ($132,363) -15.76%

2014 $743,510 $35,898 5.07%

2015-A2 $584,800 ($158,710) -21.35%

2016 est. $467,300 ($117,500) -20.09%

2017 est. $424,900 ($42,400) -9.07%

2018 est. $432,800 $7,900 1.86%

2019 est. $440,900 $8,100 1.87%

2020 est. $449,000 $8,100 1.84%

Charges for Goods & ServicesHistory & Preliminary Forecast

28

$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

$6,000,000

$7,000,000YearCharges for

Goods & Svcs.

Variance from

Prior Year--$$

Variance from

Prior Year--%

2005 $4,196,946 ($261,456) -0.0586

2006 $3,953,626 ($243,320) -5.80%

2007 $4,283,249 $329,623 8.34%

2008 $4,510,878 $227,629 5.31%

2009 $4,698,014 $187,136 4.15%

2010 $4,474,468 ($223,546) -4.76%

2011 $5,009,317 $534,849 11.95%

2012 $4,761,503 ($247,814) -4.95%

2013 $5,187,832 $426,329 8.95%

2014 $5,339,994 $152,162 2.93%

2015-A2 $5,797,500 $457,506 8.57%

2016 est. $5,827,300 $29,800 0.51%

2017 est. $5,940,600 $113,300 1.94%

2018 est. $6,055,400 $114,800 1.93%

2019 est. $6,173,100 $117,700 1.94%

2020 est. $6,292,500 $119,400 1.93%

Fines & PenaltiesHistory & Preliminary Forecast

29

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000YearFines &

Penalties

Variance from

Prior Year--$$

Variance from

Prior Year--%

2005 $243,012 ($30,482) -0.1115

2006 $296,891 $53,879 22.17%

2007 $301,504 $4,613 1.55%

2008 $295,201 ($6,303) -2.09%

2009 $315,920 $20,719 7.02%

2010 $282,153 ($33,767) -10.69%

2011 $256,663 ($25,490) -9.03%

2012 $225,242 ($31,421) -12.24%

2013 $227,937 $2,695 1.20%

2014 $207,869 ($20,068) -8.80%

2015-A2 $185,000 ($22,869) -11.00%

2016 est. $185,000 $0 0.00%

2017 est. $185,000 $0 0.00%

2018 est. $185,000 $0 0.00%

2019 est. $185,000 $0 0.00%

2020 est. $185,000 $0 0.00%

Miscellaneous RevenueHistory & Preliminary Forecast

30

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000YearMiscellaneous

Revenue

Variance from

Prior Year--$$

Variance from

Prior Year--%

2005 $281,153 $101,176 0.5622

2006 $362,644 $81,491 28.98%

2007 $535,968 $173,324 47.79%

2008 $527,389 ($8,579) -1.60%

2009 $247,973 ($279,416) -52.98%

2010 $213,484 ($34,489) -13.91%

2011 $278,145 $64,661 30.29%

2012 $208,661 ($69,484) -24.98%

2013 $144,913 ($63,748) -30.55%

2014 $196,880 $51,967 35.86%

2015-A2 $156,700 ($40,180) -20.41%

2016 est. $159,300 $2,600 1.66%

2017 est. $162,400 $3,100 1.95%

2018 est. $166,100 $3,700 2.28%

2019 est. $170,000 $3,900 2.35%

2020 est. $174,000 $4,000 2.35%

Other Financing SourcesHistory & Preliminary Forecast

31

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000Year

Other Financing

Sources

Variance from

Prior Year--$$

Variance from

Prior Year--%

2005 $254,200 ($1,064) -0.0042

2006 $324,536 $70,336 27.67%

2007 $286,036 ($38,500) -11.86%

2008 $294,200 $8,164 2.85%

2009 $349,200 $55,000 18.69%

2010 $1,112,122 $762,922 218.48%

2011 $164,028 ($948,094) -85.25%

2012 $251,270 $87,242 53.19%

2013 $233,459 ($17,811) -7.09%

2014 $538,878 $305,419 130.82%

2015-A2 $122,000 ($416,878) -77.36%

2016 est. $122,000 $0 0.00%

2017 est. $122,000 $0 0.00%

2018 est. $122,000 $0 0.00%

2019 est. $122,000 $0 0.00%

2020 est. $122,000 $0 0.00%

2015 General Fund ExpendituresBudget Amendment #2

10 Salaries & Wages, $9,555,500 , 47%

20 Personnel Benefits, $3,948,300 , 20%

30 Supplies, $733,250 , 4%

40 Services, $3,395,750 , 17%

50 Intergovernmental Services & Payments,

$2,452,900 , 12%

90 Interfund Payments for Services, $500 , 0%

32

Salaries & WagesHistory & Preliminary Forecast without COLA

33

$0

$2,000,000

$4,000,000

$6,000,000

$8,000,000

$10,000,000

$12,000,000YearSalaries &

Wages

Variance from

Prior Year--$$

Variance from

Prior Year--%

2005 $7,555,135 $64,548 0.0086

2006 $7,540,653 ($14,482) -0.19%

2007 $8,375,023 $834,370 11.06%

2008 $8,570,623 $195,600 2.34%

2009 $8,885,673 $315,050 3.68%

2010 $8,987,380 $101,707 1.14%

2011 $9,225,206 $237,826 2.65%

2012 $9,231,043 $5,837 0.06%

2013 $9,140,977 ($90,066) -0.98%

2014 $9,447,824 $306,847 3.36%

2015-A2 $9,555,500 $107,676 1.14%

2016 est. $9,356,900 ($198,600) -2.08%

2017 est. $9,385,000 $28,100 0.30%

2018 est. $9,413,300 $28,300 0.30%

2019 est. $9,441,800 $28,500 0.30%

2020 est. $9,470,300 $28,500 0.30%

Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA)Estimate of 2.0% COLA on Salaries & Wages

34

2016 Adjusted

Forecast

2017 Adjusted

Forecast

2018 Adjusted

Forecast

2019 Adjusted

Forecast

2020 Adjusted

Forecast

Base Salary & Wages

PERS Salaries & Wages 5,294,000 5,399,900 5,507,900 5,618,100 5,730,500

LEOFF Salaries & Wages 3,971,900 4,051,300 4,132,300 4,214,900 4,299,200

TOTAL Salaries & Wages $9,265,900 $9,451,200 $9,640,200 $9,833,000 $10,029,700

COLA @ 2.0% 185,300 189,000 192,800 196,700 200,600

Salaries + 2.0% COLA $9,451,200 $9,640,200 $9,833,000 $10,029,700 $10,230,300

Cumulative Direct Cost $185,300 $374,300 $567,100 $763,800 $964,400

Benefit Roll-up CostsPreliminary Forecast 2016 - 2020

35

2016 Adjusted

Forecast

2017 Adjusted

Forecast

2018 Adjusted

Forecast

2019 Adjusted

Forecast

2020 Adjusted

Forecast

Roll-up Costs:

FICA @ 6.2%

PERS-related FICA 6,600 6,700 6,800 7,000 7,100

LEOFF-related FICA 0 0 0 0 0

Total FICA $6,600 $6,700 $6,800 $7,000 $7,100

Medicare @ 1.45%

PERS-related Medicare 1,500 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,700

LEOFF-related Medicare 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200

Total Medicare $2,700 $2,800 $2,800 $2,800 $2,900

Retirement

PERS @ 11.18% 11,800 12,100 12,300 12,600 12,800

LEOFF @ 5.23% 4,200 4,200 4,300 4,400 4,500

Total Retirement $16,000 $16,300 $16,600 $17,000 $17,300

TOTAL BENEFIT ROLL-UP $25,300 $25,800 $26,200 $26,800 $27,300

Estimated Cost – 2.0% COLA + Benefit Roll-upPreliminary Forecast 2016 – 2020

36

2016 Adjusted

Forecast

2017 Adjusted

Forecast

2018 Adjusted

Forecast

2019 Adjusted

Forecast

2020 Adjusted

Forecast

Base Salary & Wages 9,265,900 9,451,200 9,640,200 9,833,000 10,029,700

COLA Costs 185,300 374,300 567,100 763,800 964,400

COLA Salaries & Wages $9,451,200 $9,825,500 $10,207,300 $10,596,800 $10,994,100

Base Benefits 3,864,600 4,057,800 4,260,700 4,473,700 4,697,400

COLA-related Benefits 25,300 25,800 26,200 26,800 27,300

REVISED Benefits $3,889,900 $4,083,600 $4,286,900 $4,500,500 $4,724,700

Begin Salary & Benefits 9,265,900 9,476,500 9,691,300 9,910,300 10,133,800

COLA Cost 185,300 189,000 192,800 196,700 200,600

ROLL-up Cost 25,300 25,800 26,200 26,800 27,300

Revised Salary & Benefits $9,476,500 $9,691,300 $9,910,300 $10,133,800 $10,361,700

Cumulative COLA & Ben. $210,600 $610,700 $1,204,000 $1,994,600 $2,986,300

Personnel BenefitsHistory & Preliminary Forecast without COLA

37

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

$3,500,000

$4,000,000

$4,500,000

$5,000,000YearPersonnel

Benefits

Variance from

Prior Year--$$

Variance from

Prior Year--%

2005 $2,277,408 ($64,621) -0.0276

2006 $2,351,457 $74,049 3.25%

2007 $2,804,338 $452,881 19.26%

2008 $2,976,661 $172,323 6.14%

2009 $3,059,221 $82,560 2.77%

2010 $3,144,934 $85,713 2.80%

2011 $3,514,733 $369,799 11.76%

2012 $3,390,148 ($124,585) -3.54%

2013 $3,609,527 $219,379 6.47%

2014 $3,517,223 ($92,304) -2.56%

2015-A2 $3,948,300 $431,077 12.26%

2016 est. $3,910,900 ($37,400) -0.95%

2017 est. $4,012,000 $101,100 2.59%

2018 est. $4,046,700 $34,700 0.86%

2019 est. $4,175,700 $129,000 3.19%

2020 est. $4,288,800 $113,100 2.71%

SuppliesHistory & Preliminary Forecast

38

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000Year SuppliesVariance from

Prior Year--$$

Variance from

Prior Year--%

2005 $707,951 $225,548 0.4676

2006 $495,003 ($212,948) -30.08%

2007 $526,770 $31,767 6.42%

2008 $490,166 ($36,604) -6.95%

2009 $488,461 ($1,705) -0.35%

2010 $574,019 $85,558 17.52%

2011 $627,801 $53,782 9.37%

2012 $607,889 ($19,912) -3.17%

2013 $654,687 $46,798 7.70%

2014 $663,648 $8,961 1.37%

2015-A2 $733,250 $69,602 10.49%

2016 est. $739,800 $6,550 0.89%

2017 est. $754,100 $14,300 1.93%

2018 est. $772,500 $18,400 2.44%

2019 est. $791,200 $18,700 2.42%

2020 est. $810,200 $19,000 2.40%

ServicesHistory & Preliminary Forecast

39

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

$3,500,000

$4,000,000

$4,500,000Year ServicesVariance from

Prior Year--$$

Variance from

Prior Year--%

2005 $2,260,386 $80,410 0.0369

2006 $2,470,222 $209,836 9.28%

2007 $2,635,424 $165,202 6.69%

2008 $2,578,494 ($56,930) -2.16%

2009 $2,404,573 ($173,921) -6.75%

2010 $2,466,628 $62,055 2.58%

2011 $2,478,484 $11,856 0.48%

2012 $2,585,280 $106,796 4.31%

2013 $2,453,208 ($132,072) -5.11%

2014 $3,099,329 $646,121 26.34%

2015-A2 $3,396,800 $297,471 9.60%

2016 est. $3,438,400 $41,600 1.22%

2017 est. $3,482,700 $44,300 1.29%

2018 est. $3,572,800 $90,100 2.59%

2019 est. $3,682,400 $109,600 3.07%

2020 est. $3,827,100 $144,700 3.93%

Intergovernmental Services & Payments History & Preliminary Forecast

40

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

$3,000,000

$3,500,000YearIntergov'tl.

Svcs. & Pmts.

Variance from

Prior Year--$$

Variance from

Prior Year--%

2005 $2,633,751 $720,946 0.3769

2006 $3,175,877 $542,126 20.58%

2007 $1,556,314 ($1,619,563) -51.00%

2008 $3,303,313 $1,746,999 112.25%

2009 $2,373,304 ($930,009) -28.15%

2010 $1,848,558 ($524,746) -22.11%

2011 $2,493,550 $644,992 34.89%

2012 $2,538,549 $44,999 1.80%

2013 $2,441,398 ($97,151) -3.83%

2014 $3,024,539 $583,141 23.89%

2015-A2 $2,443,750 ($580,789) -19.20%

2016 est. $2,430,600 ($13,150) -0.54%

2017 est. $2,427,900 ($2,700) -0.11%

2018 est. $2,477,700 $49,800 2.05%

2019 est. $2,529,900 $52,200 2.11%

2020 est. $2,670,900 $141,000 5.57%

Transfers Out from the General Fund toOther Agencies or Funds

Recipient Agency or Fund Name & Number2015

Amendment #22016 Estimate 2017 Estimate 2018 Estimate 2019 Estimate 2020 Estimate

Health & Human Services (United Way) $46,350 $34,763 $23,175 $11,588 $0 $0

Variance from Prior Year--$ n/a ($11,587) ($11,588) ($11,587) ($11,588) $0

Variance from Prior Year--% n/a -25.00% -33.33% -50.00% -100.00% n/a

Humane Society $53,400 $40,050 $26,700 $13,350 $0 $0



Feiro Marine Life Center $22,500 $16,875 $11,250 $5,625 $0



Street Fund #102 $846,600 $846,600 $846,600 $846,600 $846,600 $846,600

Variance from Prior Year--$ n/a $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Variance from Prior Year--% n/a 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% n/a

Port Angeles Fine Arts Center (PAFAC) $24,800 $18,600 $12,400 $6,200 $0 $0



Medic 1 Fund #409 $448,000 $448,000 $448,000 $448,000 $448,000 $448,000

Variance from Prior Year--$ n/a $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

Variance from Prior Year--% n/a 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% n/a

Total Transfers Out $1,441,650 $1,404,888 $1,368,125 $1,331,363 $1,294,600 $1,294,600



41

Adult Detention & Court CostsHistory & Forecast

Adult

Detention

(Jail)

Court Costs Total

2005 224,168 65,438 $289,606

2006 346,738 74,739 $421,477

2007 321,092 72,566 $393,658

2008 338,322 108,306 $446,628

2009 436,084 112,765 $548,849

2010 593,395 112,928 $706,323

2011 599,518 115,759 $715,277

2012 796,311 117,704 $914,015

2013 770,196 117,179 $887,375

2014 699,306 109,363 $808,669

2015-A2 630,000 134,000 $764,000

2016 est. 687,400 229,600 $917,000

2017 est. 721,800 241,100 $962,900

2018 est. 757,900 253,200 $1,011,100

2019 est. 795,800 265,900 $1,061,700

2020 est. 835,600 279,200 $1,114,800

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

Adult Detention (Jail) Court Costs

42

A New Direction for Criminal Justice & Courts

▪ Criminal Justice consolidation:

▪ Expected Benefits include:

▪ Eliminates duplication of Government Services

▪ Cost Containment

▪ Budget Predictability

▪ Operating Efficiencies

▪ Prosecutorial Continuity

43

General Fund Support for Street Fund #102 +Street Fund Revenue History & Prelim. Forecast

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 A-2 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Budget Est. Est. Est. Est. Est.

TAXES

Property Tax 463,480 468,115 472,796 477,524 482,299 482,299 482,299 482,299

Transportation Benefit District 250,000 350,000 700,000 700,000

LICENSES & PERMITS

Street/Alley Restoration 3,880 4,830 7,290 3,470 4,400 400

INTERGOVERNMENTAL REVENUE

Disaster Grant 1,793 14,742 69 9,297 33,368

Dept. of Military/FEMA 287 2,469 1,550 5,561

Signal Maintenance 23,915 52,971

Motor Vehicle Fuel Tax 396,108 434,257 459,652 435,257 417,035 417,167 400,531 389,891 394,852 394,400 387,300 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000

CHARGES for GOODS & SERVICES

Engineering Charges 302 1,277 513 809 275 25

Uncollectable Amounts Recovered

Street Maintenance & Repairs

Interfund Service Charges 103,862

MISCELLANEOUS REVENUES

Investment Interest 17,666 28,729 26,781 36,766 16,077 10,958 11,272 1,717 (125) 7,196 2,000

Parking Related Revenue & Leases 44,000 45,000 46,000 47,000 48,000 49,000

Interdepartmental Revenue 7,383 15,311 15,311 26,966 516,292 462,901 474,050 544,620 453,599 202,000 202,000 202,000 202,000 202,000 202,000

Sale of Scrap & Junk 196 709 477 366

Judgments & Settlements 5,401 5,140 1,759 21,617 7,886 210 7,676 154

Miscellaneous Revenue 71 7,337 553 1,054 1,000

CAPITAL CONTRIBUTIONS

Construction Contribution 1,568 3,611 3,795 398

OTHER FINANCING SOURCES

Recurring Transfers 240,000

Street Related Transfers 355,000 650,000 715,000 516,000 348,800 295,000 316,000 400,000 922,000 996,600 996,600 996,600 996,600 996,600 886,000 850,000

TOTAL STREET FUND #102 REVENUE $1,512,833 $1,659,353 $1,698,660 $1,528,887 $1,402,654 $1,723,217 $1,685,760 $1,759,599 $1,900,829 $1,853,672 $1,632,900 $1,643,600 $1,894,600 $1,995,600 $2,236,000 $2,201,000

44

Street Funding +Transportation Benefit District

▪ The General Fund provides funding that has ranged from:

▪ 45% (2010) - 70% of the Street Fund budget during the period of 2005 – 2015.

▪ $777,300 (2010) - $1,187,800 (2007) for the same period

▪ 2015: $996,000 @ 61% of Street Fund budget

▪ Capital needs to adequately repair/replace existing streets in Port Angeles totals $120 million (raising road conditions from “poor” to “good”)

▪ To simply arrest degradation, capital needs should be an additional $1 million annually (chip sealing)

▪ Ability of the General Fund to maintain existing support is problematic given all other demands on the General Fund

▪ Transportation Benefit District (TBD) has two option for formation:

▪ Council-approved $20 “car tab” that can be increased after two (2) years; or

▪ Voter-approved sales tax or car tab fee above $20

45

General Fund Support for Medic 1 Fund #409 +Medic 1 Fund Revenue History & Prelim. Forecast

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 A-2 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Budget Est. Est. Est. Est. Est.

INTERGOVERNMENTAL REVENUE

Port Security Grant 70,270 34,351

DSHS Grant 1,463 1,439 1,644 1,726 2,186 1,738 1,534 1,208 1,473 1,341 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300

CHARGES for GOODS & SERVICES

Fire/First Aid Classes 1,560 12,725 11,483 14,532 12,420 13,210 15,890 17,233 22,595 12,472 11,105 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000

Class/Training Reimbursement 150 1,200

Medic 1 Fees 143,348 461,749 467,384 500,063 524,012 541,105 589,965 590,982 641,738 673,080 670,500 697,300 725,200 754,200 784,400 815,800

Medic 1 Ambulance Services 171,086 505,051 654,309 617,122 581,370 587,715 609,275 636,816 628,244 628,652 620,000 644,800 670,600 697,400 725,300 754,300

Medic 1 Write-Offs (13,970) (54,806) (77,328) (65,107) (78,793) (60,752) (101,952) (139,069) (120,866) (91,828) (135,000) (140,400) (146,000) (151,800) (157,900) (164,200)

Ambulance Personnel Reimbursement 1,566 460 495 398 325 200

Uncollectable Amounts Recovered 3,054 1,174 475 250 183 841 710 584 783 500 500 500 500 500 500

MISCELLANEOUS REVENUES

Investment Interest 923 2,779 2,822 2,719 2,211 1,393 597 74 3,171 1,000 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200

Medic 1 Penalty--Utility Billing 260 991 1,067 1,058 1,187 1,262 1,595 1,644 1,834 1,911 1,250 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300

Uncollectable Amounts Recovered (39)

Gifts/Pledges-Private 4,649 20 130 500

Miscellaneous Revenue 1,978 25 724 26 10,436 620 500 500 500 500 500

OTHER FINANCING SOURCES

Recurring Transfers 11,617 265,000 324,160 300,000 346,912 360,000 374,000 386,000 435,500 448,000 448,000 448,000 448,000 448,000 448,000 448,000

Miscellaneous Transfers 15,428

TOTAL MEDIC 1 FUND #409 REVENUE $320,489 $1,213,164 $1,387,082 $1,373,828 $1,392,701 $1,447,270 $1,494,270 $1,566,743 $1,610,911 $1,722,501 $1,619,516 $1,666,500 $1,714,600 $1,764,600 $1,816,600 $1,870,700

Variance from Prior Yr. -- $ 136,562 892,675 173,918 (13,254) 18,873 54,569 47,000 72,473 44,168 111,590 (102,985) 46,984 48,100 50,000 52,000 54,100

Variance from Prior Yr. -- % 9.92% 278.54% 14.34% -0.96% 1.37% 3.92% 3.25% 4.85% 2.82% 6.93% -5.98% 2.90% 2.89% 2.92% 2.95% 2.98%

46

Medic 1 Revenue Challenges & Options

▪ Ability of General Fund to sustain current level of support

▪ Need for additional Firefighter/Paramedics

▪ Increasing workload – 2014 busiest year ever by over 400 calls for service

▪ 2015 – call volume is several hundred calls greater than 2014!

▪ Coverage for on-the-job injuries & sick leave

▪ Revenue options:

▪ Increase Medic 1 utility rate to provide funding for additional Firefighters/Paramedics

▪ Examine potential for a voter-approved Public Safety sales tax:

▪ Could provide funding for both Police & Fire

▪ Sales tax option would allow for visitors & tourists to help pay for Public Safety

47

2016 – 2020 General Fund Preliminary Forecast -- Summary

▪ Revenues:

▪ Significant challenge due to loss of electric utility tax

▪ Limited tax growth in property and/or sales tax

▪ Assessed value has declined for six consecutive years

▪ Lack of significant, new retail operations limits growth in sales tax

▪ Should we look at a voter-approved Public Safety sales tax for additional support for Police & Fire?

▪ Expenditures:

▪ Expenses rising faster than revenue growth

▪ Employee benefits

▪ Health insurance

▪ Retirement

▪ Utility costs

▪ General Fund support for Street Fund #102 and Medic 1 Fund #409 in question:

▪ To continue at same level as 2015 may require reduction in budgets for other General Fund activities

▪ Options for consideration to reduce reliance on General Fund

▪ Street Fund – Transportation Benefit District

▪ Medic 1 Fund – Utility rate increase

48

2016 – 2020 Financial ForecastNext Steps▪ Continue to revise General Fund forecast in light of changing environment

▪ Complete 2016 – 2020 forecast:

▪ Lodging Tax Fund #101

▪ Street Fund #102


▪ PenCom Fund #107

▪ Port Angeles Fine Arts Center Fund #156


▪ Medic 1 Fund #409

▪ Equipment Services Fund #501

▪ Information Technology Fund #502

▪ Self-Insurance Fund #503

▪ Assemble City Manager proposed Budget for 2016

▪ Revise 2017 – 2021 Forecast based on 2016 Proposed Budget & 2016 Adopted Budget – add additional year to forecast

49

2016 2020 preliminary financial forecast

Documents