A Climate Change VulnerabilityFramework and Interactive

Visualization Tool

Adriana C. Bejarano and Jennifer L. HorsmanResearch Planning, Inc. (RPI)

Acknowledgements

Funding for this project was provided by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) through the U.S. National Park Service (NPS).

The authors would like to thank Parque Nacionales Naturales de Colombia for their significant contributions.

Research Planning, Inc. (RPI), in partnership with the National Park Service and ICF International, coordinated the development of a scoring framework and an interactive visualization tool to assesses the vulnerability of one of the Natural National Parks of Colombia to impacts associated with climate change (e.g., sea level rise, storm surge).

A climate change vulnerability framework was specifically developed for Coralesdel Rosario y San Bernardo National Natural Park (PNNCRSB), Colombia, a park designated to protect coastal and marine environments.

Corales del Rosario y San Bernardo National Natural Park (PNNCRSB)

Islands comprising areas of PNNCRSB: a) Rosario; b) Tesoro (archipelago of Rosario); c) Mangle; and d) Marvillosa (archipelago of San Bernardo). Photos: Esteban Zarza (b,c,d); Idalberto Peralta (a). Source: Zarza-González and PNN, 2011

The primary objective of this project was to use area-specific information to assess the vulnerability of coastal and marine habitats, and biological and socioeconomic resources including infrastructure to several climate change factors.

Vulnerability scores were developed based on resource-specific sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity scores associated with several climate change factors (sea surface and air temperature, precipitation, ocean acidification, sea level rise and inundation from extreme events).

Some PNNCRSB resources: a) Aerial view of coral reefs on Tintipán Island (archipelago of San Bernardo); b) Mangrove forests; c) Sandy shoreline; d) Seagrasses; e) Coastal lagoons and sandy coasts; and f) Coral reef on Tesoro Island (archipelago of Rosario). Photos: Cap. Jaime Borda (a,e); Esteban Zarza (b,c); Izumi Tsurita (d,f). Source: Zarza-González and PNN, 2011

The climate change vulnerability framework

Sensitivity− the extent to which a resource is susceptible or sensitive to changes induced by one or more climate change factors and is a function of resource-specific thresholds and tolerances to specific climate change factors.

Exposure− the extent to which a resource is directly and physically impacted by changes induced by one or more climate change factors. Exposure depends on the degree of exceedance of resource-specific thresholds, as well as to the degree of physical exposure experienced by the resource.

Adaptive capacity− the potential capacity of a resource to adapt, adjust or cope with changes induced by one or more climate change factors moderating, reducing or minimizing the magnitude of adverse direct effects. These include responses leading to restored essential function, identity, structure and feedbacks. Adaptive capacity could be greatly influenced by resource-specific inherent characteristics, which for the purpose of this research included: dependency; level of specialization; dispersal/movement; functional diversity; key features and uniqueness; conservation levels and status, management priority; existing threats.These and possibly other non-climate change-related characteristics may contribute to a resource’s ability to respond to climate change.

Vulnerability− the propensity or predisposition of a resource to be vulnerable or adversely impacted by climate change. Vulnerability is a function of sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity.

Sensitivity

RESOURCETYPE

Habitats and BiologicalResources(29 attributes)

Turtle nesting sites

Socio-economic,

infrastructure and tourism

(18 attributes)

Hotels

Sea/air temperature

Scoring supported by peer-review literature, reports and/or best

professional judgment

Exposure* Adaptive capacity Resource

TypeResource

name

Sensitivity Exposure Adaptability Final Vulnerability

ScoreS1 S2 … E4 E5 … A1 A2 …

Habitat and BiologicalResources

B1

B2

…

B29

Socio-economic,

infrastructure and tourism

Infrastructure

E1

E2

…

E18

The color scheme presented here is for illustrative purposes only

CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY SCORING EXAMPLE

Vulnerability

ScoresLOW

MODERATE

HIGH

ScoresLOW

HIGH

ScoresHIGH

MODERATE

LOW

CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY APPROACH FOR “CORALES DEL ROSARIO Y SAN BERNARDO” NATIONAL NATURAL PARK, COLOMBIA

Precipitation and

hydrological regimesOcean

acidificationSea level rise

Shoreline changes, erosion

Extreme events,

inundation

Dependency

Level of specialization

Dispersal/movement

Functional diversity

Key features, uniqueness

Existing threats

Conservation level and

status

Sea/air temperature

Precipitation and

hydrological regimesOcean

acidification

Sea level rise

Extreme events,

inundation

Birds

Corals

Mangroves

Lagoons

…

Crops

Recreational beaches

Docks

Coastal protection projects

Park’s facilities

…

* Based on resource-specific thresholds and area-specific climate change scenarios

KEY COMPONENTS OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY APPROACH

green 5-6yellow 7-8red 9-10

green 6-9yellow 10-13

red 14-18

green 7-11yellow 12-16

red 17-21

Sensitivity AdaptabilityExposuretime series2010 - 2100

Final Vulnerability Scores(Optimistic and Pessimistic

scenarios)time series 2010-2100

5 year intervals

EXPOSURE SCORES

All exposure scores change with time. For some resources, exposure is spatially dependent upon permanent inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) and temporary inundation due to storm surge.

SLR is calculated based on rates of 2.88 mm/yr and 5.64 mm/yr for optimisticand pessimistic scenarios, respectively.

Storm surge values are 20 cm and 50 cm.

Subsidence rates of -3.66 mm/yr and -7 mm/yr are included in the calculation.

Weighted vulnerability is calculated by multiplying a scale factor to the vulnerability scores based on which management zone each grid cell is in. There are 3 management zones (pictured at right):

High conservation priority zone – scale factor 1.5

Natural recovery zone – scale factor 1.25

Recreational zone – scale factor 1

Weighted vulnerability

BirdsRocky shoresAlgaeSoft bottomsDry forestCoralsCoastal lagoonsMangrovesSea grassesSedimentsCropsVegetation mosaicRecreational beachesRecreational lagoonsShoreline protectionPNNCRSB facilitiesHousing

Topo to Raster (10 m) Magna-Sirgas Central

Assign 1 for presence and 0 for absence to all AOI

grid cells for each resource

Point Density with 10 m raster output

Buffer 30 m

Data processing steps used to develop the PNNCRSB Climate Change tool

Cell Statistics MAX+

Highest Position

VectorDatasets

SRTM 30 mDEM

Shorelines

Presence/Absence (1/0) grids for all

resourcesSea Turtles

Clip toPNNCRSB boundary

snap to DEM

Clip to buffer and PNNCRSB boundary

static scoresSensitivity scores

Adaptability scores

Sensitivity AdaptabilityExposure

time series2010 - 2100

Final Vulnerability Scores(Optimistic and Pessimistic

scenarios)time series 2010-2100

timeseries

2010-2100

Inundation due to sea level rise

0/1

Inundation due to

storm surge 0/1

Raster Calculator multiply

Exposure scores

time series2010 - 2100

Permanent inundation

scorestime series2010 - 2100

Temporary inundation

scorestime series2010 - 2100

Raster Calculator

add

Area of interest

(AOI) grid

Raster Calculator multiply

Raster Calculator

add

Highest score in each cell

The original 30 m SRTM DEM is very coarse. The most current (2005-2012) measured coastlines are

in red.

Using the Topo to Raster tool in ArcGIS, the 30 m DEM was resampled to 10 m and the measured

coastlines were used to confine sea level.

Resampling the elevation model

The resampled 10 m zero-level contour (red lines) matches the coastline in the imagery better than those of the SRTM 30 m DEM (yellow lines).

A sea turtle density surface was created using the Point Density tool in ArcGIS on sea turtle locations (in red) with dates 2000 or later. The density surface was clipped to a 30 m buffer around the shoreline.

Modeling sea turtle locations with a density surface

AOI grid colored by grid cell unique ID: 12,834,567 cells

Presence/absence grids were created for all resources based on an area of interest (AOI) grid and whether or not a resource was present (value=1) or not (value=0) in each grid cell.

Presence/absence (0/1) grids for all resources

Developing the interactive visualization tool

The tool panel was developed in VB .net with ArcObjects as an ArcMap Add-In. It is a dockable window that is opened by clicking on a control button in a custom toolbar.

The toolbar currently has one button, and it can be customized to include other tools such as zoom, pan, and the time slider control.

The climate change vulnerability visualization tool panel

Switch symbology between optimistic and pessimistic scenarios

Switch symbology between weighted and unweighted vulnerability scores

Select a single resource to display vulnerability values for

Vulnerability scoring scale with 10 value ranges

Chart displaying the total area covered by each score range in the visible extent

Refresh button turns

on Active View Refresh listener for

pan and zoom events

Show table of attributes for resources visible in the current extent

Change transparency value for vulnerability score layer

Select an island to zoom to

Turn on/off inundation line, base map imagery, and pop-up info window

Display PDF instructions document

Questions?Jennifer L. Horsman

Research Planning, Inc. (RPI)jhorsman@researchplanning.com

803.608.8106Paper (in press, Climate Research): A climate change vulnerability framework for

Corales del Rosario y San Bernardo National Natural Park, Colombia

http://www.researchplanning.com