2016 interim results/media/files/e/esure-v2/2016... · 2016 interim results 5 august 2016 . g r o u...
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G R O U P
2016 Interim Results 5 August 2016
G R O U P
Welcome and overview Stuart Vann, Chief Executive Officer Financial results Darren Ogden, Chief Finance Officer Chief Executive review and outlook Stuart Vann, Chief Executive Officer Questions and answers
Agenda
G R O U P Growth in insurance and Gocompare.com
Insurance Gocompare.com
• Quote Footprint
• Rating
• Customer contribution
• Marketing
• Investment
• Products
Gross written premiums
+16%
£320.4m
Gocompare.com Revenue
+22%
£72.9m
In-force policies
+4%
2.076m
Slide 2
G R O U P
Financial results Darren Ogden, Chief Finance Officer
G R O U P Group financials
1H 2016
1H 2015 Mvt FY
2015
Gross written premiums (£m) 320.4 275.5 16.3% 550.3
Trading profit (£m) 50.3 51.8 (2.9)% 92.3
Underlying profit before tax (£m) 45.6 46.5 (1.9)% 82.9
Underlying profit after tax (£m) 37.0 37.7 (1.9)% 68.2
Combined operating ratio (%) 99.2 95.8 (3.4)ppts 97.8
Loss ratio (%) 74.9 72.4 (2.5)ppts 74.0
Expense ratio (%) 24.3 23.4 (0.9)ppts 23.8
Investment return (net) (%) 0.8(1) 0.4(1) 0.4ppts 0.4
In-force policies (“IFPs”) (millions) 2.076 1.995 3.7%(2) 2.001
Underlying earnings per share (pence) 8.9 9.0 (1.1)% 16.4
Dividend per share (pence) 3.0 4.2 (28.6)% 11.5
• Gross written premiums up 16% to £320.4m through positive rating action and in-force policy growth of 4% (annualised 8%)
• Combined operating ratio of 99.2%, impacted by 1H 2016 weather events (97.9% adjusting for weather events)
• Expense ratio impacted by Flood Re levy
• Underlying profit after tax broadly flat at £37.0m, despite exceptional weather costs of £3.3m in 1H 2016 and a benign period in 1H 2015
• Investment return of 0.8ppts (annualised 1.6ppts) performed well in volatile markets
• Dividend per share of 3.0 pence reflects decision to retain capital to fund growth
(1) Non-annualised
(2) Movement calculated against FY 2015
Key Points
Slide 4
G R O U P Motor
1H 2016
1H 2015 Mvt FY
2015
Gross written premiums (£m) 275.7 233.3 18.2% 461.0
Trading profit (£m) 4.5 3.3 36.4% 6.7
Loss ratio (%) 76.4 76.6 0.2ppts 76.3
Expense ratio (%) 21.5 21.8 0.3ppts 22.1
Combined operating ratio (%) 97.9 98.4 0.5ppts 98.4
In-force policies (millions) 1.495 1.426 4.2%* 1.435
ASR per IFP (£) 63.9 66.2 (3.5)% 65.2
* Movement calculated against the 2015 full year position
• Gross written premiums up 18% to £275.7m through positive rating action and in-force policy growth
• Current accident year loss ratio improved 5.3% as positive rate inflation earns through ahead of claims inflation
• Favourable development of prior accident year reserves of £13.0m (1H 2015: £30.4m)
Key Points
Loss Ratio
76.4% 5.3% (5.4)%
76.3%
2015 Loss Ratio
Movement in prior year
development*
Movement in current accident year
loss ratio
1H 2016 Loss Ratio
* 1H 2016 favourable development as a percentage of 1H 2016 net earned premium compared to FY 2015 favourable development as a percentage of FY 2015 net earned premium Slide 5
G R O U P Home
1H 2016
1H 2015 Mvt FY
2015
Gross written premiums (£m) 44.7 42.2 5.9% 89.3
Trading profit (£m) (2.3) 7.1 (132.4)% 4.2
Loss ratio (%) 66.8 51.9 (14.9)ppts 62.2
Expense ratio (%) 38.7 30.8 (7.9)ppts 32.7
Combined operating ratio (%) 105.5 82.7 (22.8)ppts 94.9
In-force policies (millions) 0.581 0.569 2.7%* 0.566
ASR per IFP (£) 18.3 17.8 2.8% 18.1
* Movement calculated against the 2015 full year position
• Gross written premiums up 6% to £44.7m through policy growth and footprint expansion initiatives
• Claims from weather events £3.3m ahead of expectation in 1H 2016; 1H 2015 benefitted from benign weather
• Favourable development of £7.5m (1H 2015: £5.8m) driven by strong run-off of Q4 2015 storms
• Flood Re levy has impacted the expense ratio
Key Points
Loss Ratio
66.8% 5.4% (7.9)% (2.1)%
62.2%
2015 Loss Ratio
Movement in prior year
development*
Weather Movement in current accident year loss ratio
1H 2016 Loss Ratio
* 1H 2016 favourable development as a percentage of 1H 2016 net earned premium compared to FY 2015 favourable development as a percentage of FY 2015 net earned premium Slide 6
G R O U P Additional services revenues
ASR per IFP
1H 2016 (£m)
1H 2015 (£m)
Mvt FY
2015 (£m)
Non underwritten additional insurance products
4.8 4.5 6.7% 9.5
Policy administration fees and other income 9.6 10.4 (7.7)% 21.1
Claims income 3.0 4.3 (30.2)% 7.5
Instalment income 17.8 14.3 24.5% 30.2
Non-underwritten additional services 35.2 33.5 5.1% 68.3
Underwritten additional insurance products
16.3 17.5 (6.9)% 34.6
Total income from additional services 51.5 51.0 1.0% 102.9
Non-underwritten Trading Profit 28.1 26.9 4.5% 55.1
• Total income from additional services up 1% to £51.5m
• Instalment income higher due to increased new business volumes and higher average premiums in Motor
• Non-underwritten trading profit up 4.5% broadly in line with year-on-year policy growth
Key Points
£65.2 £63.9
£18.1 £18.3
FY 2015 1H 2016 Motor ASR per IFP Home ASR per IFP
Slide 7
G R O U P Gocompare.com
1H 2016
1H 2015 Mvt
Revenue (£m) 72.9 59.6 22.3%
Insurance 68.5 57.1 20.0%
Other 4.4 2.3 91.3%
Expenses (£m) 58.4 46.3 26.1%
Operating profit (£m) 14.5 13.3 9.0%
Other income 0.0 0.1 -
Profit before tax (£m) 14.5 13.4 8.2%
Operating margin (%) 19.9 22.5 (2.6)ppts
Contribution to Group trading profit (£m)
13.2 10.6 24.5%
* Note the financials above are shown on a 100% standalone basis. The Group acquired full ownership of Gocompare.com on 31 March 2015. In Q1 2015, the Group had a 50% ownership in Gocompare.com.
Key Points P&L
• Revenue growth of 22.3% to £72.9m
‘Insurance’ growth through improved marketing and brand awareness
‘Other’ benefitting from increased focus
• Expenses up 26.1% to £58.4m
Increased broadcast and online spend in non motor and home comparison driving growth
Continue to invest in medium term growth
• Operating profit up 9.0% to £14.5m
Slide 8
G R O U P Investment returns
1H 2016
1H 2015 Mvt FY
2015
Investment income (£m) 7.1 6.7 6.0% 14.1
Investment charges (£m)
(1.5) (1.6) 6.3% (3.3)
Net gains / (losses) on investments (£m)
0.5 (1.4) 135.7% (7.7)
Net investment return (£m)
6.1 3.7 64.9% 3.1
Investment return - net (%) 0.8(1) 0.4(1) 0.4ppts 0.4
Other income (£m) 0.7 0.2 350.0% 3.0
Total investment return (£m) 6.8 3.9 74.4% 6.1
Movements in AFS Reserve (£m) 3.9 1.2 325.0% 1.0
(1) Non-annualised
• Total investment return up 74.4% to £6.8m
• Net investment return of 0.8% (annualised 1.6%)
• Return delivered in volatile markets due to the Group’s conservative asset allocation focusing on higher rated credit quality bonds
• Other income includes returns from IMe Law Limited and rental income
• Investment return excludes available for sale (“AFS”) gain of £3.9m on long dated asset
Key points
Slide 9
G R O U P Investment allocation
Key points
• Recently acquired a long dated asset to better match longer duration liabilities (i.e. “PPOs”)
• Movements in long dated asset valuation to be accounted for under AFS
• Improved matching reduces capital volatility and sensitivity to movements in yield curve
• Continue to look at further opportunities to improve alignment of asset and liability durations
1H 2016 (£m)
2016 %
FY 2015 (£m)
2015 %
Cash & Liquidity 210 27% 220 29%
Fixed Income 525 67% 495 65%
Equities 43 6% 42 6%
Total 778 757
Asset Allocations
Fixed Income
1H 2016 (£m)
2016 %
FY 2015 (£m)
2015 %
Corporate Bonds 200 38% 212 43%
Government 164 31% 84 17%
Floating Rate Notes 108 21% 123 25%
Covered / RMBS 53 10% 76 15%
Total 525 495
• Strategic asset allocations remain over indexed on Cash & Liquidity awaiting investment
• Duration of 2.9 (FY 2015: 0.9) increased as a result of long dated asset
• No significant change in credit risk quality of the fixed income portfolio, with 81% held in assets rated ‘A’ or above
• Expect further reductions in Residential Mortgage Backed Securities (“RMBS”) by Q3 2016
Investment Holdings
Slide 10
G R O U P Capital & Dividend
1H 2016(1)
FY 2015(2)
Motor loss ratio +5ppts (6)ppts (6)ppts
Yield curve down 50bps (3)ppts (5)ppts
Equities down 25% (2)ppts (1)ppts
Credit spreads widen 50bps (1)ppts (1)ppts
1987 Hurricane (3)ppts (3)ppts
Note: (1) Sensitivities related to the Group position and are stated after earnings impact (net of tax and dividend at
2016 1H payout ratio) with events assumed to occur on 30/06/2016 (2) Sensitivities are stated after earnings impact (net of tax and dividend at 2015 payout ratio) with events
assumed to occur on 31/12/15
• Solvency II Group coverage of 126% (post dividend)
• Solvency II Solo coverage of 136%
• Appropriate and efficient capital base through qualifying debt
• Sensitivities demonstrate capital resilience
Key points Own Funds & Solvency Capital Requirement
Sensitivities to Group coverage ratio Dividend
• Payout ratio of 50%
• Interim dividend of 3.0 pence per share
• Ex-dividend date: 8 September 2016
• Record date: 9 September 2016
• Payment date: 21 October 2016
£293m £280m £305m
£222m £224m
Group Solo
Own Funds (pre Group dividend) Own Funds SCR
Slide 11
G R O U P
Chief Executive Officer Review Stuart Vann, Chief Executive Officer
G R O U P
Insurance review
G R O U P
81% 75%
Overview
2.001
million (1.995)
FY
2015 (HY 2015)
2.076 million
1H
2016
42k (60k)
16k (13k)
17k (8k)
Motor New Business
Footprint Expansion Home Motor
New Business Core & Renewals
77% Motor Home Home
Retention Quote Footprint*
55% Motor
* Estimated quote footprint
HY 2015 : 80% HY 2015 : 81% HY 2015 : c40% HY 2015 : c40%
Slide 14
G R O U P Motor – Rating
• Positive rating momentum seen in 2015 maintained into 1H 2016
• New business quoted prices are 17% higher in June 2016 compared to June 2015
• Average written premiums 13% higher in 1H 2016 compared to 1H 2015
• Will continue to look to implement targeted rate increases to mitigate claims inflation
esure
Market
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2013 2014 2015 2016
Confused.com/Wills Towers Watson ABI
• Market rating momentum maintained in the first half of 2016
• New business quoted prices increased 7% in Q2 2016; and are 19% higher year-on-year including the impact of the change in IPT (confused.com/Wills Towers Watson)
Average written premiums*
1H 2016
(£)
1H 2015
(£) Mvt
Total 321 284 13.0%
New Business 340 294 15.6%
Renewal 311 280 11.0%
* Average written premiums exclude insurance premium tax
* ABI data for Q2 2016 not available Slide 15
G R O U P Motor – Claims
• Claims inflation marginally ahead of 4-5% expectations
• Third Party Damage inflation ahead of expectations as a consequence of:
the Coles v Hetherton judgment pushing up repair costs; and
Increasing use of Credit Repair in the market
• Personal injury inflation broadly in line with expectations:
Frequency lower as demonstrated by the MoJ Claims Portal; and
Severity broadly flat
• Accidental damage inflation remains on parts and labour
Key points
Initiatives
• Focus on initiatives to mitigate impact of inflationary factors
• Working closely with the Government and ABI to deliver Autumn Statement proposals
Third party damage Accidental damage Personal injury
Claims costs1
Footnotes 1: Claims cost represent the 2015 Accident Year
Slide 16
G R O U P Home – Weather
• Series of weather events include storms Gertrude, Henry, Imogen, Jake and Katie, and flash flooding in June
• Weather event claims costs of £5.0m; £3.3m ahead of expectation in 1H 2016
• June flash flooding costs are isolated incidents i.e. not waterway related flooding events
Key points
Weather costs
June flash flooding
Source: Met Office Slide 17 * The FY 2016 Expectation reflects the Group’s normal weather allowance for the year and has not been adjusted to reflect actual weather costs to date
G R O U P Enhanced customer contribution modelling in Motor
Premium
Additional insurance products
Instalment income
Claim frequency
Multicar
Investment income
Cancellation
Claim severity Acquisition
costs
Operational expenses
Bad debt
Fraud
Renewal
Risk mix
Not at fault
Fault
Customer centric
Multi –Car
Cross-Sell
Risk Mix
Improving the customer
journey Expanding our customer footprint
Additional Services
Revenues
Customer Contribution
Data Analytics
Customer contribution
Slide 18
G R O U P
G R O U P
Gocompare Top spending peer
37%
Effective marketing increasing market share
Car insurance Home insurance
Awareness Broadcast spend
Source: Hall & Partners report as of Jun-16 on response to the question – ‘Which price comparison website could you think of?’
Source: Hall & Partners report as of Jun-16 “All TV spend”
37%
Gocompare.com Nearest peer
24% Market Share
Source: Management estimate of price comparison website sales in 1H 2016
18% Market Share
Source: Management estimate of price comparison website sales in 1H 2016
Slide 20
G R O U P Continuing to invest for the future
Other products
Ongoing developments
Interactions
2.8 million
+88%
Revenue
£4.4m
+91%
Marketing Team Products
• Matthew Crummack, CEO, joined in June
• Formerly CEO of lastminute.com
• Previously held senior management positions at Expedia, Nestle and Procter & Gamble
Note: Figures are stated against 1H 2015
Slide 21
G R O U P Gocompare.com summary & outlook
Summary • Delivering on strategic initiatives Outlook Double digit top line growth Continue to invest in the business to deliver medium to long
term growth
Expect operating profit to increase by 20-30% in 2016
On track to at least double the 2014 EBITDA to £50m by 2019
Strategic review • Ongoing; update in due course upon completion of the review
Slide 22
G R O U P
Summary & outlook
G R O U P Summary & outlook
• Delivered strong growth in Insurance and Gocompare.com in 1H 2016
• Strategic initiatives progressing well
• Well positioned to continue growing across the Group in 2H 2016
Gross written premiums
+13-18%
In-force policies
+6-9%
Gocompare.com operating profit
+20-30%
Group combined operating ratio
98-99% assuming normal weather for the remainder of the year
Summary
2016 Outlook
Slide 24
G R O U P
Thank you
Questions and Answers
G R O U P
Appendix
G R O U P
212 200
84 164 123
108 76
53
2015 1H 2016
Corporate bonds Government bonds FRN's Covered / RMBS
Investment portfolio
Credit rating on fixed income portfolio
Asset allocation
Fixed income
£495m £525m
Investment approach
65% 67%
30% 27%
5% 6%
2015 1H 2016
Fixed income Cash & liquidity funds Equities
• The Group deploys a conservative investment strategy with the primary objective of capital preservation and maintaining liquidity in line with its risk appetite
21%
35%
25%
19%
AAA AA A BBB or below Slide 27
G R O U P Case Study: Flash Flooding Event
• 23 June 2016 torrential downpour overwhelmed the drainage systems in the area
• 8 inches of water covering the entire ground floor of property
• Building & contents damage; and alternative accommodation
• June Flash flooding largely occurred away from rivers and waterways
• Often difficult to risk select as events are largely uncorrelated
• Flooding events are typically high value
Summary
Case Study
Example location
Cost
Buildings £100k
Contents £20k
Alternative accommodation £20k
Other fees £10k
Total £150k
Example cost schedule
Slide 28
G R O U P Solvency II: Group IFRS net assets to Own Funds
280
165
35 13 29
6
111
347
IFRS equity Derecognition of intangibles
Derecognition of DAC
Adjustment to technical provisions
Other adjustments Forseeable dividends
Tier II qualifying debt
Own Funds
Slide 29
G R O U P References
Slide 16 1. Confused.com/Wills Towers Watson Pricing Index published July 2016 2. ABI – Q1 2016 Average Private Comprehensive Home Insurance Premium published 25 April 2016
Slide 18 1. Met Office Anomaly Maps - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomacts - Rainfall/2016/June/1981-2010 anomaly
Slide 30
G R O U P
The information contained in this presentation has not been independently verified and this presentation contains various forward-looking statements that reflect management’s current views with respect to future events and financial and operational performance. The words “growing”, “scope”, “platform”, “future”, “expected”, “estimated”, “accelerating”, “expanding”, “continuing”, “potential” and “sustainable” and similar expressions or variations on such expressions identify certain of these forward-looking statements. Others can be identified from the context in which the statements are made. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions, estimates and other factors, which may be beyond esure Group plc’s (the “Group’s”) control and which may cause actual results or performance to differ materially from those expressed or implied from such forward-looking statements. All statements (including forward-looking statements) contained herein are made and reflect knowledge and information available as of the date of preparation of this presentation and the Group disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty therein. Nothing in this document should be construed as a profit forecast.
Disclaimer
Slide 31