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  • 8/16/2019 20160321 Daniel Want Prerequisite Rvtv

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    www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia.  All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 1

    20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts

    USA Quantity of Liquidity(YOY%) 

    Velocity of Liquidity 

    (YOY%) 

     Total System Liquidity(Quantity + Velocity, %YOY) 

     US 10yr

    Bond Yield 

    www.prerequisite.com.au/research  

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    www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia.  All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 2

    20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts

    China 

    Quantity of Liquidity(YOY%) 

    Velocity of Liquidity 

    (YOY%) 

     Total System Liquidity

    (Quantity + Velocity, %YOY) 

    CNY/USD 

    www.prerequisite.com.au/research  

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    www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia.  All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 3

    20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts

    China + USA

    (combined liquidity) 

    Quantity of Liquidity

    (YOY%) 

    Velocity of Liquidity 

    (YOY%) 

     Total System Liquidity

    (Quantity + Velocity, %YOY) 

    Global system proved ‘     resilient ’      due to

    China & USA combined liquidity support 

    www.prerequisite.com.au/research  

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    www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia.  All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 4

    20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts

     US 10yr Inflation Indexed Yield

    (Real Yield)

    ‘Step up’  in Real Yields

    www.prerequisite.com.au/research  

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    www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia.  All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 5

    20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts

    www.prerequisite.com.au/research  

    www.prerequisite.com.au/research  

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    www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia.  All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 6

    20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts

    9-year ‘low range’ bound 

     US Dollar Index

    (DXY)

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    www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia.  All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 7

    20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts

    US Dollar Index 

    1yr yield less annual 

    CPI rate of change 

     10yr yield less annual

    CPI rate of change 

    10yr inflation indexed

    Bond yield

    www.prerequisite.com.au/research  

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    www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia.  All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 8

    20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts

    Simplistically:

    USD = +Real Rates -US Liquidity (Qty +Velocity)

    Gold = -Real Rates + US Liquidity (Qty +Velocity)

    www.prerequisite.com.au/research  

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    www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia.  All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 9

    20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts

    US Dollar Index 

    Gold (USD) 

    1yr yield less annual 

    CPI rate of change 

     10yr yield less annual

    CPI rate of change 

    10yr inflation indexed

    Bond yield

    www.prerequisite.com.au/research  

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    www.prerequisite.com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia.  All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and i ssuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities.

    20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts

    -Real Yields 

    Liquidity 

    Effect on Gold 

    Stable to falling 

    Growing (with velocity wobble)  

    Rising

    Real yield spike 

     Velocity offset by  Qty

    = resilient liquidity growth 

    Resilient Gold

    Falling

    Growing (with velocity wobble)  

    Rising

    Falling

     Velocity >  Qty

    = Liquidity collapse 

    Stalled

    Real yield increase

    Transition to growth

    (but problematic velocity)

    Falling

    Stable/sideways

    Slowing growth into negative

    (due to persistently falling velocity) 

    Weakening bias

    Quantity of Liquidity 

    (YOY%)

     Velocity of Liquidity

    (YOY%)

     Total System Liquidity

    (Quantity + Velocity, YOY%)

    US 10yr Bond

    Real Yield, lhs

     

    Gold (USD), rhs

     

    USA

    Understanding the regime progression in Gold...

    www.prerequisite.com.au/research  

    www.prerequisite.com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia.  All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 11

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    www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia.  All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 11

    20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts

    GDP / M2

    (Conventional velocity measure)

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    www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia.  All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 12

    20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts

    Euro Area Liquidity 

    Quantity of Liquidity

    (YOY%) 

    Velocity of Liquidity 

    (YOY%) 

     Total System Liquidity

    (Quantity + Velocity, %YOY) 

     Euro Area 10yrSovereign Bond Yield

    www.prerequisite.com.au/research  

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    www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia.  All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 13

    20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts

    www.prerequisite.com.au/research  

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    www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia.  All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 14

    20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts

    Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia. All rights reserved.

    Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Prerequisite Capital Management Pty

    Ltd nor any of its employees, or any person(s) or firm who is represented within this publication shall

    have any liability for any direct or consequential loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the

    information contained in this publication. At no time does Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd

    make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or

    viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. This publication has been prepared

    by Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies solely forthe general information

     

    of clients or potential clients of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd.

    It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The

    views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period

    ending at the date of publication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other

    conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are

    not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such

    securities. Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd (ABN 27 141 060 933) is a Corporate

     Aut horised Represent ative of AIW Dealer Serv ices Pty Ltd (ABN 59 153 322 420) AFSL 414256. 

    Contact: Darren Brind (CEO) 

    [email protected] 

    +614 98 671 505