20160321 daniel want prerequisite rvtv
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8/16/2019 20160321 Daniel Want Prerequisite Rvtv
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www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia. All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 1
20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts
USA Quantity of Liquidity(YOY%)
Velocity of Liquidity
(YOY%)
Total System Liquidity(Quantity + Velocity, %YOY)
US 10yr
Bond Yield
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www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia. All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 2
20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts
China
Quantity of Liquidity(YOY%)
Velocity of Liquidity
(YOY%)
Total System Liquidity
(Quantity + Velocity, %YOY)
CNY/USD
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www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia. All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 3
20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts
China + USA
(combined liquidity)
Quantity of Liquidity
(YOY%)
Velocity of Liquidity
(YOY%)
Total System Liquidity
(Quantity + Velocity, %YOY)
Global system proved ‘ resilient ’ due to
China & USA combined liquidity support
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www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia. All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 4
20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts
US 10yr Inflation Indexed Yield
(Real Yield)
‘Step up’ in Real Yields
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8/16/2019 20160321 Daniel Want Prerequisite Rvtv
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www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia. All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 5
20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts
www.prerequisite.com.au/research
www.prerequisite.com.au/research
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www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia. All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 6
20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts
9-year ‘low range’ bound
US Dollar Index
(DXY)
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www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia. All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 7
20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts
US Dollar Index
1yr yield less annual
CPI rate of change
10yr yield less annual
CPI rate of change
10yr inflation indexed
Bond yield
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8/16/2019 20160321 Daniel Want Prerequisite Rvtv
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www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia. All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 8
20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts
Simplistically:
USD = +Real Rates -US Liquidity (Qty +Velocity)
Gold = -Real Rates + US Liquidity (Qty +Velocity)
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8/16/2019 20160321 Daniel Want Prerequisite Rvtv
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www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia. All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 9
20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts
US Dollar Index
Gold (USD)
1yr yield less annual
CPI rate of change
10yr yield less annual
CPI rate of change
10yr inflation indexed
Bond yield
www.prerequisite.com.au/research
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8/16/2019 20160321 Daniel Want Prerequisite Rvtv
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www.prerequisite.com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia. All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and i ssuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities.
20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts
-Real Yields
Liquidity
Effect on Gold
Stable to falling
Growing (with velocity wobble)
Rising
Real yield spike
Velocity offset by Qty
= resilient liquidity growth
Resilient Gold
Falling
Growing (with velocity wobble)
Rising
Falling
Velocity > Qty
= Liquidity collapse
Stalled
Real yield increase
Transition to growth
(but problematic velocity)
Falling
=
Stable/sideways
Slowing growth into negative
(due to persistently falling velocity)
Weakening bias
Quantity of Liquidity
(YOY%)
Velocity of Liquidity
(YOY%)
Total System Liquidity
(Quantity + Velocity, YOY%)
US 10yr Bond
Real Yield, lhs
Gold (USD), rhs
USA
Understanding the regime progression in Gold...
www.prerequisite.com.au/research
www.prerequisite.com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia. All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 11
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www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia. All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 11
20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts
GDP / M2
(Conventional velocity measure)
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www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia. All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 12
20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts
Euro Area Liquidity
Quantity of Liquidity
(YOY%)
Velocity of Liquidity
(YOY%)
Total System Liquidity
(Quantity + Velocity, %YOY)
Euro Area 10yrSovereign Bond Yield
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8/16/2019 20160321 Daniel Want Prerequisite Rvtv
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www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia. All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 13
20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts
www.prerequisite.com.au/research
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8/16/2019 20160321 Daniel Want Prerequisite Rvtv
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www.prerequisite .com.au/research Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia. All rights reserved. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period ending at the date ofpublication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. 14
20th May 2016, RVTV Presentation Charts
Copyright © 2016 Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd, Australia. All rights reserved.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Prerequisite Capital Management Pty
Ltd nor any of its employees, or any person(s) or firm who is represented within this publication shall
have any liability for any direct or consequential loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the
information contained in this publication. At no time does Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd
make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or
viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. This publication has been prepared
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of clients or potential clients of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd.
It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The
views expressed are the views of Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd through the period
ending at the date of publication and are subject to change at any time based on market and other
conditions. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are
not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such
securities. Prerequisite Capital Management Pty Ltd (ABN 27 141 060 933) is a Corporate
Aut horised Represent ative of AIW Dealer Serv ices Pty Ltd (ABN 59 153 322 420) AFSL 414256.
Contact: Darren Brind (CEO)
+614 98 671 505