2017 06 12 tx water roundtable - texas demographic center · 2017-06-26 · roundtable boerne,...
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@TexasDemography
Population and Water in Texas
Texas Water RoundtableBoerne, Texas
June 12, 2017
Growing States, 2000‐2016
2000Population(millions)
2010Population(millions)
2016 Population (millions)
NumericChange
2010-2016 (millions)
PercentChange
2010-2016
United States 281.4 308.7 323.1 14.3 4.7%Texas 20.8 25.1 27.8 2.7 10.8%California 33.8 37.2 39.2 1.9 5.4%Florida 15.9 18.8 20.6 1.8 9.6%Georgia 8.2 9.7 10.3 .6 6.4%North Carolina 8.0 9.5 10.1 .6 6.4%Washington 5.8 6.7 7.3 .6 8.4%Arizona 5.1 6.4 6.9 .5 8.4%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2016 Population Estimates.
Dallas
Howard
FoardFloyd
Brewster
FranklinHunt
Newton
Starr
Kinney
Collingsworth
TomGreen
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
Webb
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
Oldham
Taylor
King
Borden
Walker
Stephens
Deaf Smith
Roberts
Tyler
Val Verde
Brown
Parker
Harris
Zapata
RedRiver
Karnes
PaloPinto
GlasscockShelby
Wood
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
San Augustine
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Camp
Brazos
Orange
Colorado
Pecos
Cochran
Parmer
FreestoneWinkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
VanZandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
Ellis
Hall
Dickens
TrinityReeves
Marion
Terrell
Lynn
LaSalle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
UptonHamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Hutchinson
Llano
Presidio
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Lavaca
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
Edwards
SanPatricio
Terry
Crockett
Houston
Waller
Coke
Ward
Titus
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
HemphillHartley
Young
BurlesonHardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
Hopkins
McLennan
Madison
McCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
Sutton
Midland
Hudspeth
Zavala
Harrison
Comanche
Mitchell
Navarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
Jeff Davis
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
JimWells
DeltaStonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Angelina
Bailey
Jefferson
Frio
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
Fort Bend
Bosque
Hockley
SanSaba
Kerr
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
Irion
Caldwell
JimHogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
Kimble
Knox
Polk
Hood
San Jacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
LiveOak
Motley
Sherman Ochiltree
Comal
Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2016
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates
113 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 500,000
500,001 - 4,589,928
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
PresidioTerrell
CulbersonReeves
Val Verde
Crockett
Hill
Duval
Harris
Frio
Bell
Kerr
Kenedy
Starr
Polk
Clay
Edwards
Irion
Hall
Ellis
Jeff Davis
Sutton
Uvalde
Bee
Hale
Dallam
Leon
Bexar
Gaines
Hidalgo
Upton
Hartley
King
Erath
Jack
Kinney
Kent
Zavala
Brazoria
Tyler
GrayOldham
Dimmit
CassLynn HuntWise
La Salle
Rusk
Kimble
Lamb
Medina
Floyd
Terry
Coke
Llano
Liberty
Ector
Andrews
Milam
Travis Lee
Knox
Mills
Smith
Falls
Ward
Collin
Jones
Nolan
Potter
Burnet
Cottle
Nueces
Taylor
Zapata
Real
Coryell
Bowie
Motley
Young
Lamar
Martin
Garza
DallasFisher
Moore
Baylor
Kleberg
Archer
Scurry
Cameron
Cooke
Mason
Parker
Castro
Navarro
Brooks
Hardin
Deaf Smith
Lavaca
Donley
Hays
Goliad
Denton
El Paso
Fannin
Tarrant
Crane
Carson
Crosby
Borden
Schleicher
Gillespie
Shelby
Foard
Wood
Menard
Panola
Walker
Winkler
Harrison
Eastland
Loving
Bandera
Wichita
Hood
Matagorda
Brown
Reagan Houston
Maverick
Jasper
Coleman
Tom Green
Bailey
DeWittAtascosa
Bosque
Wharton
Concho
Runnels
Fayette
Haskell
Calhoun
Newton
Live Oak
Randall
Sterling
Jefferson
Briscoe
McMullen
Parmer
Jim Hogg
Mitchell
Wilson
Victoria
Trinity
Roberts
Howard
Bastrop
Grayson
San Saba
Midland
Hockley Dickens
Swisher
Gonzales
Anderson
Dawson
Willacy
Grimes
Wheeler
Cherokee
Colorado
Lubbock
Karnes
Red River
Refugio
Austin
Hemphill
Williamson
Jackson
Blanco
Ochiltree
McCulloch
Sherman
Wilbarger
Hansford
Callahan
McLennan
Yoakum
Angelina
Hopkins
Lipscomb
StephensPalo Pinto
Stonewall
Hamilton
MontagueCochran
Jim Wells
Limestone
Kaufman
Fort Bend
Titus
Comal
Armstrong
Kendall
FreestoneComancheGlasscock
Johnson
Galveston
Henderson
Montgomery
Brazos
Van Zandt
Chambers
Robertson
Waller
Sabine
Upshur
Hutchinson
Shackelford
Childress
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Lampasas
Collingsworth
Hardeman
Throckmorton
Guadalupe
Caldwell
Aransas
Marion
San Patricio
Madison
San Jacinto
Delta
Washington Orange
Rains
Gregg
Morris
San Augustine
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2016
4Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates
96 counties lost population over the 6 year period.
-2,010 - 0
1 - 1,000
1,001 - 20,000
20,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 497,469
Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2016
5Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
PresidioTerrell
CulbersonReeves
Val Verde
Crockett
Hill
Duval
Harris
Frio
Bell
Kerr
Kenedy
Starr
Polk
Clay
Edwards
Irion
Hall
Ellis
Jeff Davis
Sutton
Uvalde
Bee
Hale
Dallam
Leon
Bexar
Gaines
Hidalgo
Upton
Hartley
King
Erath
Jack
Kinney
Kent
Zavala
Brazoria
Tyler
GrayOldham
Dimmit
CassLynn HuntWise
La Salle
Rusk
Kimble
Lamb
Medina
Floyd
Terry
Coke
Llano
Liberty
Ector
Andrews
Milam
Travis Lee
Knox
Mills
Smith
Falls
Ward
Collin
Jones
Nolan
Potter
Burnet
Cottle
Nueces
Taylor
Zapata
Real
Coryell
Bowie
Motley
Young
Lamar
Martin
Garza
DallasFisher
Moore
Baylor
Kleberg
Archer
Scurry
Cameron
Cooke
Mason
Parker
Castro
Navarro
Brooks
Hardin
Deaf Smith
Lavaca
Donley
Hays
Goliad
Denton
El Paso
Fannin
Tarrant
Crane
Carson
Crosby
Borden
Schleicher
Gillespie
Shelby
Foard
Wood
Menard
Panola
Walker
Winkler
Harrison
Eastland
Loving
Bandera
Wichita
Hood
Matagorda
Brown
Reagan Houston
Maverick
Jasper
Coleman
Tom Green
Bailey
DeWittAtascosa
Bosque
Wharton
Concho
Runnels
Fayette
Haskell
Calhoun
Newton
Live Oak
Randall
Sterling
Jefferson
Briscoe
McMullen
Parmer
Jim Hogg
Mitchell
Wilson
Victoria
Trinity
Roberts
Howard
Bastrop
Grayson
San Saba
Midland
Hockley Dickens
Swisher
Gonzales
Anderson
Dawson
Willacy
Grimes
Wheeler
Cherokee
Colorado
Lubbock
Karnes
Red River
Refugio
Austin
Hemphill
Williamson
Jackson
Blanco
Ochiltree
McCulloch
Sherman
Wilbarger
Hansford
Callahan
McLennan
Yoakum
Angelina
Hopkins
Lipscomb
StephensPalo Pinto
Stonewall
Hamilton
MontagueCochran
Jim Wells
Limestone
Kaufman
Fort Bend
Titus
Comal
Armstrong
Kendall
FreestoneComancheGlasscock
Johnson
Galveston
Henderson
Montgomery
Brazos
Van Zandt
Chambers
Robertson
Waller
Sabine
Upshur
Hutchinson
Shackelford
Childress
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Lampasas
Collingsworth
Hardeman
Throckmorton
Guadalupe
Caldwell
Aransas
Marion
San Patricio
Madison
San Jacinto
Delta
Washington Orange
Rains
Gregg
Morris
San Augustine
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
-4.8% - 0%
0.1% - 2.5%
2.6% - 5%
5.1% - 10%
10.1% - 18.1%
CountyU.S. Rank Population Change
Population Change
Percent of Change from
Natural Increase
Percent Changefrom Domestic
Migration
Percent Change from
International Migration
Harris 2 56,587 79.9% ‐27.9% 48.1%Tarrant 5 35,462 44.4% 37.7% 17.9%Bexar 7 33,198 44.6% 39.3% 16.1%Dallas 9 29,209 79.9% ‐20.9% 41.0%Denton 11 27,689 23.9% 67.1% 9.0%Fort Bend 13 27,388 24.8% 59.4% 15.8%Collin 14 26,506 25.8% 58.7% 15.5%Travis 17 24,505 44.2% 33.3% 22.5%
Williamson 22 20,659 20.3% 74.1% 5.6%Montgomery 24 19,769 18.5% 73.5% 8.0%Hidalgo* 54 10,529 113.5% ‐33.4% 19.9%
Hidalgo County had negative net migration (‐13.5% of total population growth).Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates
Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2015-2016
Top Counties for Percent Growth* in Texas, 2015-2016
County U.S. Rank
2015‐2016Percent
Population Change
Percent Change from Domestic Migration
Percent Change from InternationalMigration
Kendall 2 5.2% 95.9% 4.0%Hays 3 5.1% 82.2% 1.8%Comal 6 4.4% 88.5% 2.0%
Williamson 14 4.1% 74.1% 5.6%Fort Bend 18 3.8% 59.4% 15.8%
Montgomery 24 3.7% 73.5% 8.0%Rockwall 25 3.6% 82.2% 2.5%Denton 28 3.6% 67.1% 9.0%Kaufman 36 3.4% 81.3% 2.2%Bastrop 42 3.1% 83.5% 0.7%Ellis 50 3.1% 78.1% 2.6%
*Among Counties with 10,000 or more population in 2016Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates
Persons per Square Mile
0 – 10
11 – 50
51 – 500
501 – 4,000
4,001 – 56,000
19701970 19801980 19901990
Density by Census Tract, San Antonio‐Austin Area, 1970‐2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial censuses. Geolytics, Neighborhood Change Database Tract Data from 1970-2010
20002000 20102010Coleman
Leon
Jackson
Medina
Coryell
Kendall
Milam
Hays
Walker
Brown
Harris
Karnes
Burnet
Brazos
Colorado
Freestone
TravisGillespie
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
Falls
Victoria Matagorda
Runnels
Lee
Bexar
HamiltonLimestone
Llano
Wharton
Lavaca
Menard
Edwards
Waller
Lampasas
Atascosa
Burleson
Gonzales
McLennan
Madison
McCulloch
Real
Zavala
ComancheNavarro
Washington
WilliamsonMason
Hill Hill
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Frio
FortBend
Bosque
San Saba
Kerr
Mills
Caldwell
Concho
Kimble
Robertson
Wilson
Comal
Coleman
Leon
Jackson
Medina
Coryell
Kendall
Milam
Hays
Walker
Brown
Harris
Karnes
Burnet
Brazos
Colorado
Freestone
TravisGillespie
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
Falls
Victoria Matagorda
Runnels
Lee
Bexar
HamiltonLimestone
Llano
Wharton
Lavaca
Menard
Edwards
Waller
Lampasas
Atascosa
Burleson
Gonzales
McLennan
Madison
McCulloch
Real
Zavala
ComancheNavarro
Washington
WilliamsonMason
Hill Hill
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Frio
FortBend
Bosque
San Saba
Kerr
Mills
Caldwell
Concho
Kimble
Robertson
Wilson
Comal
Coleman
Leon
Jackson
Medina
Coryell
Kendall
Milam
Hays
Walker
Brown
Harris
Karnes
Burnet
Brazos
Colorado
Freestone
TravisGillespie
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
Falls
Victoria Matagorda
Runnels
Lee
Bexar
HamiltonLimestone
Llano
Wharton
Lavaca
Menard
Edwards
Waller
Lampasas
Atascosa
Burleson
Gonzales
McLennan
Madison
McCulloch
Real
Zavala
ComancheNavarro
Washington
WilliamsonMason
Hill Hill
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Frio
FortBend
Bosque
San Saba
Kerr
Mills
Caldwell
Concho
Kimble
Robertson
Wilson
Comal
Coleman
Leon
Jackson
Medina
Coryell
Kendall
Milam
Hays
Walker
Brown
Harris
Karnes
Burnet
Brazos
Colorado
Freestone
TravisGillespie
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
Falls
Victoria Matagorda
Runnels
Lee
Bexar
HamiltonLimestone
Llano
Wharton
Lavaca
Menard
Edwards
Waller
Lampasas
Atascosa
Burleson
Gonzales
McLennan
Madison
McCulloch
Real
Zavala
ComancheNavarro
Washington
WilliamsonMason
Hill Hill
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Frio
FortBend
Bosque
San Saba
Kerr
Mills
Caldwell
Concho
Kimble
Robertson
Wilson
Comal
Coleman
Leon
Jackson
Medina
Coryell
Kendall
Milam
Hays
Walker
Brown
Harris
Karnes
Burnet
Brazos
Colorado
Freestone
TravisGillespie
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
Falls
Victoria Matagorda
Runnels
Lee
Bexar
HamiltonLimestone
Llano
Wharton
Lavaca
Menard
Edwards
Waller
Lampasas
Atascosa
Burleson
Gonzales
McLennan
Madison
McCulloch
Real
Zavala
ComancheNavarro
Washington
WilliamsonMason
Hill Hill
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Frio
FortBend
Bosque
San Saba
Kerr
Mills
Caldwell
Concho
Kimble
Robertson
Wilson
Comal
Population for San Antonio/Austin area by Census Tract, 1970‐2010
9
Bexar
Llano
Travis Lee
MilamBurnet
DeWitt
Hays
LavacaMedina
Fayette
Wilson
Bastrop
Frio
Gonzales
Gillespie
Williamson
Blanco
Bell
Kerr
Comal
Kendall
Atascosa
Mason
Karnes
Guadalupe
Caldwell
Victoria
Burleson
Bandera
Jackson
Colorado
San Saba
Goliad
Robertson
Washington
McCulloch
Austin
Brazos
Wharton
Bexar
Llano
Travis Lee
MilamBurnet
DeWitt
Hays
LavacaMedina
Fayette
Wilson
Bastrop
Frio
Gonzales
Gillespie
Williamson
Blanco
Bell
Kerr
Comal
Kendall
Atascosa
Mason
Karnes
Guadalupe
Caldwell
Victoria
Burleson
Bandera
Jackson
Colorado
San Saba
Goliad
Robertson
Washington
McCulloch
Austin
Brazos
Wharton
Bexar
Llano
Travis Lee
MilamBurnet
DeWitt
Hays
LavacaMedina
Fayette
Wilson
Bastrop
Frio
Gonzales
Gillespie
Williamson
Blanco
Bell
Kerr
Comal
Kendall
Atascosa
Mason
Karnes
Guadalupe
Caldwell
Victoria
Burleson
Bandera
Jackson
Colorado
San Saba
Goliad
Robertson
Washington
McCulloch
Austin
Brazos
Wharton
Bexar
Llano
Travis Lee
MilamBurnet
DeWitt
Hays
LavacaMedina
Fayette
Wilson
Bastrop
Frio
Gonzales
Gillespie
Williamson
Blanco
Bell
Kerr
Comal
Kendall
Atascosa
Mason
Karnes
Guadalupe
Caldwell
Victoria
Burleson
Bandera
Jackson
Colorado
San Saba
Goliad
Robertson
Washington
McCulloch
Austin
Brazos
Wharton
Bexar
Llano
Travis Lee
MilamBurnet
DeWitt
Hays
LavacaMedina
Fayette
Wilson
Bastrop
Frio
Gonzales
Gillespie
Williamson
Blanco
Bell
Kerr
Comal
Kendall
Atascosa
Mason
Karnes
Guadalupe
Caldwell
Victoria
Burleson
Bandera
Jackson
Colorado
San Saba
Goliad
Robertson
Washington
McCulloch
Austin
Brazos
Wharton
0-1,000
1,001-5,000
5,001-7,500
7,501-10,000
10,001-34,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial censuses. Geolytics, Neighborhood Change Database Tract Data from 1970-2010
1970 1990
2000 2010
1980
Projected Percent Change in Population 2010‐2050
DallasHoward
FoardFloyd
Brewster
FranklinHunt
Newton
Starr
Kinney
Collingsworth
TomGreen
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
Webb
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
Oldham
Taylor
King
Borden
Walker
Stephens
DeafSmith
Roberts
Tyler
Val Verde
Brown
Parker
Harris
Zapata
RedRiver
Karnes
PaloPinto
GlasscockShelby
Wood
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
San Augustine
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Brazos
Orange
Colorado
Pecos
Cochran
Parmer
FreestoneWinkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
VanZandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
Ellis
Hall
Dickens
TrinityReeves
Marion
Terrell
Lynn
LaSalle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
LibertyLee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
Upton
Hamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Hutchinson
Llano
Presidio
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Lavaca
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
Edwards
Terry
Crockett
Houston
Waller
Coke
Ward
Titus
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
HemphillHartley
Young
Burleson Hardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
Hopkins
McLennan
MadisonMcCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
Sutton
Midland
Hudspeth
Zavala
Harrison
Comanche
MitchellNavarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
Jeff Davis
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
Jim Wells
DeltaStonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
BastropAustin
Andrews
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Angelina
Bailey
Jefferson
Frio
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
Fort Bend
Bosque
Hockley
SanSaba
Kerr
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
Irion
JimHogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
Kimble
Knox
Polk
Hood
SanJacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
LiveOak
Motley
ShermanOchiltree
Comal
10
-51.2% - 0%
0.1% - 25%
25.1% - 50%
50.1% - 75%
75.1% - 425%
Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections, 1.0 Scenario
Contact
State DemographerOffice: (210) 458‐6530Email: [email protected]: demographics.texas.gov
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
@TexasDemography
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