2017 world military unmanned aerial systems · 2018-02-27 · world military uas market profile...

MARKET PROFILE AND FORECAST

2017World Military

Unmanned Aerial Systems

World Military Unmanned Aerial Systems Market Profile & Forecast

Steven J. Zaloga, Senior Analyst - Missiles & UAVs (410) 676-7698 email: [email protected] Dr. David Rockwell, Senior Analyst – Military Electronics

(703) 385-1992 ext. 106 email: [email protected] Philip Finnegan, Senior Analyst - Defense & Aerospace Companies (703) 385-1992 ext. 105 email: [email protected] homepage: www.tealgroup.com

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©Teal Group Corporation World Military UAS Market Profile & Forecast 2017 Edition

Executive Overview.................................................................................................. 1

The Market Outlook ................................................................................................................................................ 1

World UAS Budget Forecast (excluding US classified budget) ....................................................................... 3 World UAS Budget Forecast (including provisional US classified budget) ..................................................... 3 World Production Forecast by Type ................................................................................................................. 4 World UAV Production Forecast by Region .................................................................................................... 4 Study Parameters .............................................................................................................................................. 4 Forecast Assumptions ....................................................................................................................................... 5 Cost Evaluation ................................................................................................................................................. 6

Military UAS Profile................................................................................................................................................ 8 Civil UAVs .............................................................................................................................................................. 13 The Numbers .......................................................................................................................................................... 15

Mini-UAV Production Forecast by Region .................................................................................................... 15 Small Tactical UAV Production Forecast by Region ..................................................................................... 15 Tactical UAV Production Forecast Summary by Region ............................................................................... 15 Naval UAVs Production Forecast Summary by Region ................................................................................. 16 MALE UAV Production Forecast Summary by Region ................................................................................. 16 HALE UAV Production Forecast Summary by Region ................................................................................. 16 UCAV Production Forecast Summary by Region .......................................................................................... 17 Civil Government, Commercial & Consumer UAVs ..................................................................................... 17

The US UAV Market .............................................................................................19

The Market Outlook .............................................................................................................................................. 19

Past as Prologue .............................................................................................................................................. 20 US Department of Defense UAV Funding History ........................................................................................ 23 DoD UAV Categories ..................................................................................................................................... 24 US Military UAV Inventory Trends ............................................................................................................... 24 US UAV Inventory (1 Apr 2014) ................................................................................................................... 24 US DoD UAV Budget Forecast ...................................................................................................................... 27 US UAV Production Forecast ......................................................................................................................... 27

Program Profiles .................................................................................................................................................... 28

US Micro/Mini UAVs..................................................................................................................................... 28 US Navy/Marine Corps RQ-21 Blackjack STUAS ........................................................................................ 34 RQ-7A Shadow Tactical UAV ....................................................................................................................... 36 RQ-8 Fire Scout VTUAV ............................................................................................................................... 38 US Navy UAV Programs ................................................................................................................................ 41 RQ-1 Predator /MQ-9 Reaper ......................................................................................................................... 42 Air Force Next Generation UAS (NGUAS) ................................................................................................... 47 MQ-25 Stingray (CBARS) ............................................................................................................................. 47 RQ-4 Global Hawk ......................................................................................................................................... 49 UCAVs ........................................................................................................................................................... 52

European UAV Market .........................................................................................55

Market Overview ................................................................................................................................................... 55

Current European Military Programs .............................................................................................................. 55 European UAV Production Forecast by Type ................................................................................................ 56

Country Profiles ..................................................................................................................................................... 57

Armenia .......................................................................................................................................................... 57 Austria ............................................................................................................................................................. 57 Azerbaijan ....................................................................................................................................................... 58

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Belgium ........................................................................................................................................................... 58 Belarus ............................................................................................................................................................ 59 Bulgaria ........................................................................................................................................................... 60 Croatia ............................................................................................................................................................. 60 Czech Republic ............................................................................................................................................... 61 Denmark ......................................................................................................................................................... 62 Estonia ............................................................................................................................................................ 62 European Union/NATO .................................................................................................................................. 63 Finland ............................................................................................................................................................ 64 France ............................................................................................................................................................. 65 Georgia ........................................................................................................................................................... 75 Germany ......................................................................................................................................................... 75 Greece ............................................................................................................................................................. 81 Hungary .......................................................................................................................................................... 82 Ireland ............................................................................................................................................................. 82 Italy ................................................................................................................................................................. 83 Netherlands ..................................................................................................................................................... 87 Norway ........................................................................................................................................................... 89 Poland ............................................................................................................................................................. 89 Portugal ........................................................................................................................................................... 91 Romania .......................................................................................................................................................... 92 Russia .............................................................................................................................................................. 92 Serbia .............................................................................................................................................................. 98 Slovakia .......................................................................................................................................................... 99 Slovenia .......................................................................................................................................................... 99 Spain ............................................................................................................................................................. 100 Sweden .......................................................................................................................................................... 101 Switzerland ................................................................................................................................................... 103 Turkey ........................................................................................................................................................... 104 Ukraine ......................................................................................................................................................... 107 United Kingdom ........................................................................................................................................... 108

Rest of the World UAV Market ..........................................................................115

Market Overview ................................................................................................................................................. 115 Middle East .......................................................................................................................................................... 116

Middle East UAV Production Forecast by Type .......................................................................................... 116 Bahrain .......................................................................................................................................................... 117 Egypt ............................................................................................................................................................. 117 Iran ................................................................................................................................................................ 118 Iraq ................................................................................................................................................................ 120 Israel ............................................................................................................................................................. 120 Jordan ............................................................................................................................................................ 127 Kuwait ........................................................................................................................................................... 128 Lebanon ........................................................................................................................................................ 128 Qatar ............................................................................................................................................................. 129 Saudi Arabia ................................................................................................................................................. 129 Syria .............................................................................................................................................................. 131 United Arab Emirates ................................................................................................................................... 131

Africa .................................................................................................................................................................... 134

African UAV Production Forecast by Type .................................................................................................. 134 Algeria .......................................................................................................................................................... 134 Angola ........................................................................................................................................................... 135 Botswana ....................................................................................................................................................... 135 Ethiopia ......................................................................................................................................................... 136 Ivory Coast .................................................................................................................................................... 136

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Kenya ............................................................................................................................................................ 136 Libya ............................................................................................................................................................. 137 Morocco ........................................................................................................................................................ 137 Nigeria .......................................................................................................................................................... 137 South Africa .................................................................................................................................................. 138 Sudan ............................................................................................................................................................ 140 Tunisia .......................................................................................................................................................... 140 Yemen ........................................................................................................................................................... 141

Asia-Pacific ........................................................................................................................................................... 142

Asia-Pacific UAV Production Forecast by Type .......................................................................................... 142 Australia ........................................................................................................................................................ 143 Bangladesh .................................................................................................................................................... 146 China ............................................................................................................................................................. 146 India .............................................................................................................................................................. 153 Indonesia ....................................................................................................................................................... 157 Japan ............................................................................................................................................................. 157 Kazakhstan .................................................................................................................................................... 160 Korea, North ................................................................................................................................................. 160 Korea, South ................................................................................................................................................. 160 Malaysia ........................................................................................................................................................ 163 Myanmar ....................................................................................................................................................... 164 New Zealand ................................................................................................................................................. 164 Pakistan ......................................................................................................................................................... 165 Philippines .................................................................................................................................................... 167 Singapore ...................................................................................................................................................... 168 Sri Lanka ....................................................................................................................................................... 169 Taiwan .......................................................................................................................................................... 170 Thailand ........................................................................................................................................................ 171 Vietnam ......................................................................................................................................................... 172

The Americas ....................................................................................................................................................... 173

Americas UAV Production Forecast by Type .............................................................................................. 173 Argentina ...................................................................................................................................................... 174 Brazil............................................................................................................................................................. 174 Canada .......................................................................................................................................................... 176 Chile .............................................................................................................................................................. 179 Colombia ....................................................................................................................................................... 179 Dominican Republic ..................................................................................................................................... 180 Ecuador ......................................................................................................................................................... 180 Mexico .......................................................................................................................................................... 180 Panama .......................................................................................................................................................... 181 Venezuela ..................................................................................................................................................... 181

UAV Munitions ....................................................................................................183

Overview ............................................................................................................................................................... 183

Electro-Optical/Infrared Sensors .......................................................................191

Market Overview ................................................................................................................................................. 191 High Altitude Endurance (HALE) EO/IR Sensors ........................................................................................... 196

USAF Global Hawk Basic and Enhanced Integrated Sensor Suite (EISS) ................................................... 196 USAF Global Hawk Follow-On EO/IR Sensors ........................................................................................... 203 USAF Next-Generation HALE EO/IR Sensor Suite ..................................................................................... 209 Navy MQ-4C Triton MTS-B & AN/DAS-X Sensor Suite ........................................................................... 210 USAF Classified Stealthy UAV EO/IR Sensors (RQ-170/RQ-180/TR-X) .................................................. 212 Coast Guard Deepwater Endurance UAV EO/IR Sensor ............................................................................. 213

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Medium-Altitude Long-Endurance EO/IR Sensors ......................................................................................... 213

Predator & Predator B/Reaper AN/AAS-52 MTS-A & AN/DAS-1/4 MTS-B (Multi-spectral Targeting

System) & Future MALE EO/IR Sensor ........................................................................................................... 213 US CBP/USCG Guardian/Predator B AN/DAS-1(V) MTS-B (Multi-Spectral Targeting System) ............. 221 USAF MQ-X/Next Generation MALE UAV EO/IR Sensor ........................................................................ 223 US Army Gray Eagle AN/DAS-2(V) Common Sensor Payload (CSP) ....................................................... 227 Predator XP EO/IR Sensors .......................................................................................................................... 231 FLIR Systems, Inc. (FSI) Star SAFIRE 380HD ........................................................................................... 232 Lockheed Martin INFIRNO .......................................................................................................................... 233 UTC Aerospace (UTAS) DB-110 & MS-110 EO/IR Pods ........................................................................... 234 Rafael RecceLite & Recce-U EO/IR Pods .................................................................................................... 235 US Navy MALE TERN (Tactically Exploited Reconnaissance Node) Sensors ........................................... 237

Wide FOV (WFOV) EO/IR Sensors .................................................................................................................. 238

USAF Reaper Gorgon Stare & Classified WFOV EO/IR Sensors ............................................................... 238 US Army/USAF UAV ARGUS-IS ............................................................................................................... 243 USAF ARGUS-IR ........................................................................................................................................ 244 Predator C Avenger Wide Field of View (WFOV) Sensor ........................................................................... 245 Logos Technologies Redkite & LEAPS & Kestrel & WAMI Sensors ......................................................... 245 US Marine Corps RQ-7 Shadow Wide Focal Plane Array Camera (WFPAC “Wolfpack”) ........................ 246 US Marine Corps RQ-7 Shadow WASPS (Wide Area Surgical and Persistent Surveillance) ..................... 246 AWARE (Advanced WFOV Architectures for Image Reconstruction and Exploitation) ............................ 247

Hyperspectral EO Sensors .................................................................................................................................. 247

Global Hawk SPIRITT & USAF Hyperspectral Systems ............................................................................. 247 USAF Predator ACES Hy Hyperspectral Imager ......................................................................................... 249 US Army RQ-7 Shadow AURORA & Navy/Army Hyperspectral Imagers................................................. 251

UCAV EO/IR Sensors ......................................................................................................................................... 254

USAF Classified Stealthy SEAD/Strike UCAV EO/IR Sensors .................................................................. 254 US Navy MQ-25 Stingray CBARS & UCLASS & UCAS-D EO/IR Sensors .............................................. 254

Tactical UAV EO/IR Sensors.............................................................................................................................. 260

US Navy/US Coast Guard MQ-8B/C Fire Scout EO/IR Sensors ................................................................. 260 US Army/USMC RQ-7 Shadow V2 MX-10 EO/IR Sensors ........................................................................ 264 US Army/USMC RQ-7 Shadow V1 POP 200/300 ....................................................................................... 268 US Army Hunter Raven Eye II/MOSP ......................................................................................................... 269 United Technologies (UTAS) SWIR (Short-Wave IR) Sensors ................................................................... 270 US Navy & Army MRMUAS & MRMP EO/IR Sensors ............................................................................. 271

Small Tactical UAV EO/IR Sensors ................................................................................................................... 271

US Navy/USMC RQ-21A Blackjack/Integrator Multi 8000 EO/IR Sensor ................................................. 271 ScanEagle Alticam EO and IR Sensors ........................................................................................................ 275 ScanEagle ViDAR “Optical Radar”.............................................................................................................. 278 Gremlins and “Swarming” Small UAV EO/IR Sensors ............................................................................... 278 US Special Operations Command NightEagle EO/IR Sensor ...................................................................... 280

Mini-UAV EO/IR Sensors ................................................................................................................................... 280

AeroVironment Raven & Wasp & Puma Mantis EO/IR Sensors ................................................................. 280 FLIR Systems, Inc. (FSI) Duo EO/IR Camera.............................................................................................. 284 US & Available International Mini-UAV EO/IR Sensors ............................................................................ 284 Air Force Desert Hawk (was Sentry Owl) EO Sensors ................................................................................ 286 RQ-11 Raven Photon IR Sensor ................................................................................................................... 286 US Marine Corps Dragon Eye ThermoVision Micron IR Sensor ................................................................. 287 US Navy & US Army FCS Class I RQ-16A T-Hawk MAV EO and IR Sensors ......................................... 288

Nano Air Vehicle (NAV) EO/IR Sensors ........................................................................................................... 289

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Nano Air Vehicle (NAV) EO/IR Sensors ..................................................................................................... 289

Synthetic Aperture Radars .................................................................................293

Market Overview ................................................................................................................................................. 293

SAR Technology ........................................................................................................................................... 293 SAR Market .................................................................................................................................................. 294 SAR Program Forecasts ................................................................................................................................ 295 Market Shares ............................................................................................................................................... 296

High Altitude Endurance (HALE) UAV Radars .............................................................................................. 297

USAF Global Hawk AN/ZPY-2 MP-RTIP ................................................................................................... 297 NATO Global Hawk AGS/MP-RTIP ........................................................................................................... 301 USAF Global Hawk “HISAR” ..................................................................................................................... 306 USAF Global Hawk Follow-On SAR ........................................................................................................... 308 Next-Generation HALE UAV SAR .............................................................................................................. 309 US Navy MQ-4C Triton AN/ZPY-3 Multi-Function Active Sensor (MFAS) .............................................. 309 USAF Classified Stealthy UAV SARs (RQ-170 & RQ-180 & TR-X & B-21) ............................................ 318 USCG Deepwater Endurance UAV ISAR .................................................................................................... 322

Medium Altitude Endurance (MALE) UAV Radars ........................................................................................ 322

USAF Reaper & Predator XP AN/APY-8 Lynx SAR & Future MALE SAR .............................................. 322 US CBP Predator B AN/APY-8 Lynx SAR ................................................................................................. 328 US CBP/USCG Guardian SeaVue SAR ....................................................................................................... 328 Predator B/Guardian Future MALE Maritime Radar ................................................................................... 329 USAF MQ-X/Next-Generation MALE UAV Radar .................................................................................... 331 US Army Gray Eagle AN/ZPY-1 Starlite SAR ............................................................................................ 332 US Army Predator/Sky Warrior ER/MP Lynx II SAR ................................................................................. 335 US Army Gray Eagle ER/MP VADER Radar .............................................................................................. 336 Leonardo/UTC Aerospace (UTAS) “TacSAR” Pod (UAV) ......................................................................... 338 “ASARS-3” (Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar System) ......................................................................... 339 USAF Reaper Dismount Detection Radar (DDR) ........................................................................................ 340 US Army Gray Eagle TRACER ................................................................................................................... 341 MB SAR (Multi-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar) ........................................................................................ 342

UCAV Programs .................................................................................................................................................. 342

US Air Force Classified Stealthy SEAD/Strike UCAV Radars .................................................................... 342 US Navy CBARS & UCLASS & UCAS-D Radars ..................................................................................... 343

Airborne Sense-And-Avoid Radars (ABSAAs) ................................................................................................. 344

US Navy Triton Air-to-Air Radar Sub-System (AARSS) ............................................................................ 345 USAF Common Airborne Sense & Avoid (C-ABSAA) ............................................................................... 346 Predator B Due Regard Radar (DRR) ........................................................................................................... 348 US Army Ground-Based Sense & Avoid (GBSAA) .................................................................................... 349 European Defense Agency (EDA) MIDCAS Sense-and-Avoid Radar ........................................................ 350

Tactical UAV Programs ...................................................................................................................................... 352

US Navy/US Coast Guard MQ-8B/C Fire Scout SARs ................................................................................ 352 US Army MQ-8B FCS Class 4A (Fire Scout) Lynx II SAR ........................................................................ 356 US Army RQ-7 Shadow SAR ....................................................................................................................... 357 Army A160 FORESTER FOPEN SAR ........................................................................................................ 359

Magnetic Anomaly Detectors (MADs) ............................................................................................................... 360

MAD-XR (Magnetic Anomaly Detection Extended Role) ........................................................................... 360

Small Tactical/Mini/Nano UAV Programs ........................................................................................................ 361

US Navy/Marine Corps RQ-21A Blackjack/Integrator SAR........................................................................ 361 ScanEagle NanoSAR & Leonardo ................................................................................................................ 361

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miniSAR ....................................................................................................................................................... 362 microSAR ..................................................................................................................................................... 362 PicoSAR ....................................................................................................................................................... 363 USAF Desert Owl PENRAD GPEN SAR .................................................................................................... 363 MiniSAR ....................................................................................................................................................... 363

SIGINT & Electronic Attack (EA) Systems ......................................................365

Market Overview ................................................................................................................................................. 365 Endurance UAV SIGINT & EA Programs ....................................................................................................... 370

USAF Global Hawk/HALE & Predator/Reaper/MALE ASIP (Airborne Signals Intelligence Payload) ..... 370 USAF Global Hawk Hyperwide COMINT ................................................................................................... 375 USAF Global Hawk LR-100 RWR/ESM/ELINT ......................................................................................... 375 Navy MQ-4C Triton AN/ZLQ-1 ESM System & Follow-On SIGINT & Future Triton SIGINT Suite ....... 376 USAF Classified Stealthy UAV ESM/EA Systems (RQ-170 & RQ-180 & TR-X & B-21) ........................ 380 Army Tactical SIGINT Payload (TSP) & Follow-On & Future MALE UAV SIGINT System................... 380 Reaper Advanced Radar Detection System (ARDS) ELINT Pod ................................................................ 387 Reaper AN/ALR-69A Radar Warning Receiver (RWR)/ESM Pod.............................................................. 387 Army MQ-1C Gray Eagle Modular Multi-Function Electronic Warfare (MFEW) Pod ............................... 388 Army MQ-1C Gray Eagle CEASAR/NERO COMINT Electronic Attack Pods .......................................... 388 US Army MQ-5B Hunter Green Dart SIGINT System ................................................................................ 390 Pandora Electronic Warfare (EW) System (MALE) ..................................................................................... 390 USAF DEACON Electronic Attack Pod....................................................................................................... 391

UCAV SIGINT & EA Programs ........................................................................................................................ 391

USAF Classified Stealthy SEAD/Strike UCAV Electronic Attack (EA) System ......................................... 391 USMC UCAV Electronic Attack (EA) ......................................................................................................... 392 USMC Group 4 UAV Electronic Attack (EA) Standoff Jammers (AN/ALQ-99 & NGJ) ........................... 392 US Navy MQ-25A Stingray CBARS & UCLASS SIGINT & Electronic Attack (EA) ............................... 396 Navy UCAS-D SIGINT ................................................................................................................................ 397 Early US Air Force/Navy UCAV Electronic Warfare Systems .................................................................... 397

Tactical/Mini/Nano UAV SIGINT & EA Programs ......................................................................................... 397

Overview ....................................................................................................................................................... 397 US Army RQ-7 Shadow SIGINT Systems ................................................................................................... 398 USMC RQ-7 Shadow Software Reprogrammable Payload (SRP) ............................................................... 399 RQ-7B Shadow SIGINT Pod ........................................................................................................................ 399 US Navy MQ-8C Fire Scout SIGINT/EW Pod ............................................................................................ 400 DARPA CONCERTO (CONverged Collaborative Elements for RF Task Operations) ............................... 400 US Special Operations Forces (SOF) Tactical/Mini-UAV SIGINT Sensor ................................................. 402 Pandora Electronic Warfare (EW) System (Small UAV) ............................................................................. 402 “NanoSIGINT” (Tactical/Small Tactical UAV) ........................................................................................... 403 US Navy/Marine Corps RQ-21A Blackjack/Integrator SIGINT Payload..................................................... 403 US Special Operations Command (SOCOM) MEUAS III Small Tactical SIGINT/ELINT Sensors ........... 404 US Army RQ-20 Puma Mini-UAV SIGINT Sensors ................................................................................... 404

International UAV SIGINT & EA Programs ................................................................................................... 404

Euro Hawk ISIS Wide Area SIGINT System ............................................................................................... 404 UK Watchkeeper SIGINT: Soothsayer ......................................................................................................... 407 Xtender/FlyingFish Satellite Phone SIGINT System .................................................................................... 408 TRC 274 & TRC 6200 .................................................................................................................................. 409 Top Scan ....................................................................................................................................................... 409 Skyfix SIGINT Suite..................................................................................................................................... 409 EL/K-7071 COMINT/DF & EL/L-8385 ESM/ELINT ................................................................................. 410 SPS-65V5 Modular EW/SIGINT Suite ........................................................................................................ 410 Skyfix COMINT/DF ..................................................................................................................................... 410

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C4I Systems ..........................................................................................................411

Market Overview ................................................................................................................................................. 411

System Types ................................................................................................................................................ 411

Data Link Programs ............................................................................................................................................ 413

Global Hawk (EQ-4) Battlefield Airborne Communications Node (BACN) ............................................... 413 Global Hawk Block 30/40 C4I Systems ....................................................................................................... 414 Predator B/MALE Network Centric Communications Pod (NCCP) ............................................................ 416 MUM-T (Manned-Unmanned Teaming) & VUIT-2 .................................................................................... 417 USMC RQ-7 Shadow Software Reprogrammable Payload (SRP) ............................................................... 419 RQ-7 Shadow Forward Airborne Secure Transmissions and Communications (FASTCOM) ..................... 420 Next-Generation Scalable UA Mission Command System .......................................................................... 420 Tactical Control System (TCS) & UAV Operating Systems ........................................................................ 420 Warfighter Information Network-Tactical (WIN-T) ..................................................................................... 423 JTIDS and MIDS .......................................................................................................................................... 429 Joint Tactical Radio System (JTRS) ............................................................................................................. 432 USAF Tactical Data Links (TDL)/Link-16 ................................................................................................... 435 US Navy Tactical Data Links (TDL)/Link-16 .............................................................................................. 436 US Army Tactical Data Links (TDL)/Link-16 ............................................................................................. 438 EPLRS & SADL ........................................................................................................................................... 439 Improved Data Modem (IDM) ...................................................................................................................... 441 CEC (Cooperative Engagement Capability) ................................................................................................. 442 Common Data Link (CDL) & Tactical Common Data Link (TCDL) .......................................................... 447 Network Tactical Common Data Link-Network (TCDL-N) ........................................................................ 451 Tactical Common Data Link-Network (TCDL-N) ....................................................................................... 451 Communications Data Link System (CDLS) ................................................................................................ 452

UAS Company Profiles ........................................................................................453

Overview ............................................................................................................................................................... 453 Company Profiles ................................................................................................................................................ 458

Aeronautics Ltd. ............................................................................................................................................ 458 AeroVironment Inc. ...................................................................................................................................... 461 Aeryon Labs Inc. ........................................................................................................................................... 469 Airbus Defence & Space (formerly European Defence and Space Co.) ....................................................... 470 Aurora Flight Sciences .................................................................................................................................. 476 AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group ...................................................................................................... 478 BAE Systems ................................................................................................................................................ 479 Baykar ........................................................................................................................................................... 481 Bell Helicopter .............................................................................................................................................. 481 The Boeing Co. ............................................................................................................................................. 483 CAE Inc. ....................................................................................................................................................... 486 China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp. ......................................................................................... 488 Dassault Aviation .......................................................................................................................................... 489 Denel Pty. Ltd. .............................................................................................................................................. 490 Diehl Defence GmbH & Co. KG .................................................................................................................. 492 DJI Innovations ............................................................................................................................................. 492 Elbit Systems Ltd. ......................................................................................................................................... 493 EMT Ingenieurgesellschaft ........................................................................................................................... 498 FLIR Systems, Inc. ....................................................................................................................................... 500 General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. ............................................................................................... 501 Griffon Aerospace ......................................................................................................................................... 507 Honeywell International Inc.......................................................................................................................... 507 Insitu Inc. ...................................................................................................................................................... 510 Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd..................................................................................................................... 513 Kaman Corp. ................................................................................................................................................. 517

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Korea Aerospace Industries Ltd. ................................................................................................................... 519 Korean Air Aerospace Business Division ..................................................................................................... 519 Korean Aviation Technologies ..................................................................................................................... 520 Kratos Defense and Security Solutions Inc. .................................................................................................. 521 L-3 Technologies .......................................................................................................................................... 522 Leonardo (formerly Finmeccanica) .............................................................................................................. 523 Lockheed Martin Corp. ................................................................................................................................. 526 MacDonald, Dettwiler and Associates (MDA) Ltd. ..................................................................................... 531 Northrop Grumman Corp. ............................................................................................................................. 532 Piaggio Aerospace ........................................................................................................................................ 538 Prioria Robotics ............................................................................................................................................ 539 Raytheon Company ....................................................................................................................................... 540 Rheinmetall AG ............................................................................................................................................ 542 Rockwell Collins, Inc.................................................................................................................................... 543 Rolls-Royce .................................................................................................................................................. 544 Safran ............................................................................................................................................................ 545 Schiebel Elektronische Geraete GmbH ......................................................................................................... 547 Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation ...................................................................................................................... 549 Stark Aerospace, Inc. .................................................................................................................................... 550 Swift Engineering, Inc. ................................................................................................................................. 551 Teledyne Technologies Inc. .......................................................................................................................... 552 Textron Systems Unmanned Systems ........................................................................................................... 554 Thales ............................................................................................................................................................ 561 Turkish Aerospace Industries........................................................................................................................ 564 Uconsystem Co. Ltd...................................................................................................................................... 564 UMS Skeldar................................................................................................................................................. 565 VT Group ...................................................................................................................................................... 565

Appendix 1 ............................................................................................................567

US DoD 10-Year UAV Funding History Summary .......................................................................................... 567 RDT&E by Service .............................................................................................................................................. 567 Procurement by Service ...................................................................................................................................... 580

Appendix 2 ............................................................................................................583

US DoD Prime Contracts .................................................................................................................................... 583


Executive Overview

The Market Outlook

In terms of worldwide military

budgets, the unmanned aircraft sys-

tems (UAS) segment promises to be

one of the most dynamic growth sec-

tors, continuing the past decade’s

rapid spending growth. The unclassi-

fied sector will continue to increase

over the next decade, by about 36%,

from current annual spending on

RDT&E and procurement of about

$9.6 billion in FY18 to about $13 bil-

lion in FY27. If operations and

maintenance expenditures were to be

added, these totals would be even

greater.

This future military growth is be-

ing driven by the adoption of un-

manned aerial vehicles (UAVs)

worldwide. Over the next decade, US

procurement will grow modestly.

Growth will increasingly shift to-

wards international markets as more

militaries adopt the lessons of Iraq

and Afghanistan and incorporate

UAVs into their forces (see Figure

1). The introduction of specially-

built unmanned combat air vehicles

(UCAVs) also promises to drive

growth over the next decade.

Now, for the second year Teal

Group has separated all civil govern-

ment and commercial UAVs into a

separate study in recognition of the

strong potential for the future as air-

space begins to open worldwide. We

have included a brief summary of

those findings here.

Please note that in our tables and

charts “procurement” and “produc-

tion value” are two different, but re-

lated numbers. Procurement, covered

in the budget forecasts here, repre-

sents the annual amount of produc-

tion funding included in a particular

country’s annual defense budget,

usually on a fiscal-year basis. Pro-

duction value, covered in the numer-

ous tables in this study, represents the

value of UAV systems delivered dur-

ing a particular calendar year. In

rough terms, the funds “procured”

during one-year result in “delivered"

units the following year or after.

The most significant catalyst to

this market has been the enormous

growth of interest in UAVs by the US

military, tied to operations in Iraq

and Afghanistan, as well as the gen-

eral trend towards information war-

fare and net-centric systems. UAVs

are a key element in the intelligence,

surveillance and reconnaissance

(ISR) portion of this revolution, and

they are expanding into other mis-

sions as well with the advent of

hunter-killer UAVs.

Figure 1

Executive Overview Page 2


Our research suggests that the US

will account for 57% of the unclassi-

fied R&D spending on UAV technol-

ogy over the next decade, and about

32% of the unclassified procurement

through the forecast decade. These

US UAV funding shares for R&D

and procurement represent smaller

shares of the market compared to de-

fense spending in general. The US

accounts for about 64% of total

worldwide R&D spending and 38%

of procurement spending, according

to Teal Group’s International De-

fense Briefing forecasts.

These percentages change signifi-

cantly when adjustments are made

for US classified UAV development

and procurement funding (see Figure

2). The value of these “black” pro-

grams can only be surmised, with our

estimates serving as a likely upper

end of the range of potential secret

monies. With these assumptions, the

US accounts for 76% of the world

R&D on UAVs and 49% of the pro-

curement.

This difference is due to the heav-

ier US investment in cutting-edge

technologies and the marked lag-

time in such research and procure-

ment elsewhere, especially major

aerospace centers such as Europe.

This follows trends in other cutting-

edge technologies observed over the

past decade by Teal Group analysts

in such areas as precision-guided

weapons, information and sensor

technology, and military application

of space systems.

A tangible example of the “black”

UAV budget in the US is the RQ-170

Sentinel program which only came to

light when one of the stealth drones

came down in Iranian territory.

If our funding forecasts for

"black" classified programs are re-

moved, the US share for RDT&E

falls to 57% and for procurement to

32% of the world share, which is in-

congruous in view of the leading role

played by the US in RDT&E and pro-

curement in the UAV field, and the

general trends in world defense

spending mentioned earlier.

Teal Group expects that the sales

of UAVs will follow recent patterns

of high-tech arms procurement

worldwide, with the Asia-Pacific

area representing the second largest

market, followed by Europe. Indeed,

the Asia-Pacific region may repre-

sent an even larger segment of the

market, but several significant play-

ers in the region, namely Japan and

China are not especially transparent

about their plans compared to Eu-

rope. As in the case of many cutting

edge aerospace products, Africa and

Latin America are expected to be

very modest markets for UAVs.

Some warnings are needed when

viewing the summary tables and

charts here. There appear to be wide

swings and dips in unit acquisition

over the forecast decade, that is not

Figure 2

2017 world military unmanned aerial systems · 2018-02-27 · world military uas market profile...

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