2017 year in review and · impact of travel on state economies (itse) 2016 source: u.s. travel...
TRANSCRIPT
2017 Year in Review and
Expectations for 2018
1. The Economic Impact of Travel
2. Setting the Stage
3. High Frequency Statistics
4. Forecast
Agenda
Source: U.S. Travel Association
IMPACT OF TRAVEL ON STATE ECONOMIES (ITSE) 2016
Source: U.S. Travel Association
• Travel employment increased in 47 states and D.C.
• Travel employment grew faster than overall
employment in 43 of the 50 states and D.C.
• Travel expenditures increased in 42 of the 50 states
and D.C.
Fastest Growth in Travel Expenditures
2012 North Dakota 14.6%
2013 Hawaii 7.9%
2014 Delaware 8.1%
2015 Washington 8.3%
2016 Oregon 5.0%
Setting the Stage
Setting the Stage
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
Perc
en
t C
ha
ng
e
The U.S. Economy (GDP)
1 Quarter (SAAR) 4 Quarters
Setting the Stage
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Perc
en
t
Perc
en
t
The Labor Market (25-54 Year Old)
Employment-Population Ratio Unemployment Rate
Setting the Stage
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18
Pe
rcen
t C
ha
nge
Disposable Personal Income
3-Month Change (SAAR) 12-Month Change
Setting the Stage
Source: Conference Board and National Federation of Independent Business
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Inde
x (
19
86
=1
00
)
Inde
x (
19
58
=1
00
)
Consumer and Business Confidence
Consumer Confidence NFIB Small Business Optimism
Setting the Stage
Source: Federal Reserve and Oxford Economics
0%
1%
2%
3%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Pe
rcen
t C
ha
nge
Global GDP Growth
90
100
110
120
130
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Value of U.S. Dollar
Recent High Frequency
Travel Statistics
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and U.S. Travel Association
Recent High Frequency Travel Data
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Employment Growth
Total Nonfarm Travel
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and
U.S. Travel Calculations
International Inbound Travel: Published vs. Alternative
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Total Canada Mexico Overseas
2017 Published 2017 Alternative
2016/2017
Percent Change
(Jan-Sept YTD)
?
Source: U.S. Travel Association
Recent High Frequency Travel Data
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
U.S. Share of Global Long Haul Travel
Based on Alternative Based on Currently Published
Source: nSight
Recent High Frequency Travel Data
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
U.S. Share of Lodging Searches Year Over Year Change
Domestic Searches International Searches
Source: U.S. Travel Association
48.5
49
49.5
50
50.5
51
51.5
52
52.5
53
Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18
Travel Trends Index
CTI 3-Month LTI
Recent High Frequency Travel Data
Source: U.S. Travel Association
Recent High Frequency Travel Data
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18
Travel Trend Index Components
International Inbound Domestic Leisure Domestic Business
U.S. Travel Association
Forecast
Source: U.S. Travel Association
Forecast
0%
1%
2%
3%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Pe
rcen
t C
ha
nge
U.S. GDP Growth
Source: U.S. Travel Association
Forecast
0%
1%
2%
3%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Pe
rcen
t C
ha
nge
Inflation
CPI TPI
Source: U.S. Travel Association
Forecast
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Perc
en
t C
ha
ng
e
Total Traveler Spending vs. GDP
Travel Expenditures GDP
Source: U.S. Travel Association
Forecast
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Pe
rcen
t C
ha
nge
Domestic Travel Volume
Domestic Leisure Domestic Business
Forecast
