Dedication

Tomyteacher,S.N.Goenka(1924–2013),wholovinglytaughtmeimportantthings.

Contents

1. Dedication2.

3. 1TheNewHumanAgenda

4. PARTIHomoSapiensConquerstheWorld1. 2TheAnthropocene2. 3TheHumanSpark

5. PARTIIHomoSapiensGivesMeaningtotheWorld1. 4TheStorytellers2. 5TheOddCouple3. 6TheModernCovenant4. 7TheHumanistRevolution

6.PARTIIIHomoSapiensLosesControl1. 8TheTimeBombintheLaboratory2. 9TheGreatDecoupling3. 10TheOceanofConsciousness4. 11TheDataReligion

7. Notes8. Acknowledgements9. Index10. AbouttheAuthor11. AlsobyYuvalNoahHarari12. Credits13. Copyright14. AboutthePublisher

Invitrofertilisation:masteringcreation.Computerartwork©KTSDESIGN/SciencePhotoLibrary.

1TheNewHumanAgenda

Atthedawnofthethirdmillennium,humanitywakesup,stretchingitslimbsandrubbingitseyes.Remnantsofsomeawfulnightmarearestilldriftingacrossitsmind.‘Therewassomethingwithbarbedwire,andhugemushroomclouds.Ohwell,itwasjustabaddream.’Goingtothebathroom,humanitywashesitsface,examinesitswrinklesinthemirror,makesacupofcoffeeandopensthediary.‘Let’sseewhat’sontheagendatoday.’Forthousandsofyearstheanswertothisquestionremainedunchanged.The

same three problems preoccupied the people of twentieth-century China, ofmedieval Indiaandof ancientEgypt.Famine,plagueandwarwerealwaysatthetopofthelist.Forgenerationaftergenerationhumanshaveprayedtoeverygod,angelandsaint,andhaveinventedcountlesstools,institutionsandsocialsystems–but theycontinuedtodie intheirmillionsfromstarvation,epidemicsand violence.Many thinkers andprophets concluded that famine, plague andwarmustbean integralpart ofGod’scosmicplanorofour imperfectnature,andnothingshortoftheendoftimewouldfreeusfromthem.Yet at the dawn of the thirdmillennium, humanitywakes up to an amazing

realisation.Most people rarely think about it, but in the last few decades wehavemanaged to rein in famine, plague andwar.Of course, these problemshave not been completely solved, but they have been transformed fromincomprehensible and uncontrollable forces of nature into manageablechallenges.Wedon’tneedtopraytoanygodorsainttorescueusfromthem.Weknowquitewellwhatneeds tobedone inorder toprevent famine,plagueandwar–andweusuallysucceedindoingit.True,therearestillnotablefailures;butwhenfacedwithsuchfailuresweno

longer shrug our shoulders and say, ‘Well, that’s the way things work in ourimperfect world’ or ‘God’s will be done’. Rather, when famine, plague or warbreakoutofourcontrol,wefeelthatsomebodymusthavescrewedup,wesetupacommissionofinquiry,andpromiseourselvesthatnexttimewe’lldobetter.And itactuallyworks.Suchcalamities indeedhappen lessand lessoften.For

thefirst time inhistory,morepeopledietodayfromeatingtoomuchthanfromeatingtoolittle;morepeoplediefromoldagethanfrominfectiousdiseases;andmorepeoplecommitsuicidethanarekilledbysoldiers,terroristsandcriminalscombined.Intheearlytwenty-firstcentury,theaveragehumanisfarmorelikelyto die from bingeing atMcDonald’s than from drought, Ebola or an al-Qaedaattack.Hence even though presidents, CEOs and generals still have their daily

schedules fullofeconomiccrisesandmilitaryconflicts,on thecosmicscaleofhistoryhumankindcanliftitseyesupandstartlookingtowardsnewhorizons.Ifweareindeedbringingfamine,plagueandwarundercontrol,whatwillreplacethematthetopofthehumanagenda?Likefirefightersinaworldwithoutfire,sohumankind in the twenty-first century needs to ask itself an unprecedentedquestion:whatarewegoingtodowithourselves?Inahealthy,prosperousandharmoniousworld,whatwilldemandourattentionandingenuity?Thisquestionbecomesdoublyurgentgiventheimmensenewpowersthatbiotechnologyandinformation technology are providing us with. What will we do with all thatpower?Before answering this question, we need to say a few more words about

famine,plagueandwar.Theclaimthatwearebringingthemundercontrolmaystrikemanyasoutrageous,extremelynaïve,orperhapscallous.Whataboutthebillions of people scraping a living on less than $2 a day? What about theongoingAIDScrisisinAfrica,orthewarsraginginSyriaandIraq?Toaddressthese concerns, let us take a closer look at theworld of the early twenty-firstcentury,beforeexploringthehumanagendaforthecomingdecades.

TheBiologicalPovertyLineLet’sstartwithfamine,whichforthousandsofyearshasbeenhumanity’sworstenemy. Until recently most humans lived on the very edge of the biologicalpoverty line,belowwhichpeoplesuccumbtomalnutritionandhunger.Asmallmistakeorabitofbadluckcouldeasilybeadeathsentenceforanentirefamilyorvillage.Ifheavyrainsdestroyedyourwheatcrop,orrobberscarriedoffyourgoatherd,youandyourlovedonesmaywellhavestarvedtodeath.Misfortuneor stupidity on the collective level resulted in mass famines. When severedroughthitancientEgyptormedieval India, itwasnotuncommonthat5or10per cent of thepopulationperished.Provisionsbecamescarce; transportwastooslowandexpensivetoimportsufficientfood;andgovernmentswerefartooweaktosavetheday.

Openanyhistorybookandyouarelikelytocomeacrosshorrificaccountsoffamishedpopulations,drivenmadbyhunger. InApril1694aFrenchofficial inthetownofBeauvaisdescribedtheimpactoffamineandofsoaringfoodprices,saying that his entire district was now filled with ‘an infinite number of poorsouls, weak from hunger and wretchedness and dying from want, because,having nowork or occupation, they lack themoney to buy bread. Seeking toprolongtheirlivesalittleandsomewhattoappeasetheirhunger,thesepoorfolkeat such unclean things as cats and the flesh of horses flayed and cast ontodung heaps. [Others consume] the blood that flowswhen cowsand oxen areslaughtered,andtheoffalthatcooksthrowintothestreets.Otherpoorwretcheseatnettlesandweeds,orrootsandherbswhichtheyboilinwater.’1Similar scenes took place all over France. Bad weather had ruined the

harveststhroughoutthekingdomintheprevioustwoyears,sothatbythespringof 1694 the granaries were completely empty. The rich charged exorbitantprices forwhatever food theymanaged tohoard,and thepoordied indroves.About 2.8 million French – 15 per cent of the population – starved to deathbetween1692and1694,while theSunKing,LouisXIV,wasdallyingwithhismistressesinVersailles.Thefollowingyear,1695,faminestruckEstonia,killingafifthofthepopulation.In1696itwastheturnofFinland,whereaquartertoathirdofpeopledied.Scotlandsuffered fromsevere faminebetween1695and1698,somedistrictslosingupto20percentoftheirinhabitants.2Mostreadersprobablyknowhowitfeelswhenyoumisslunch,whenyoufast

onsomereligiousholiday,orwhenyouliveforafewdaysonvegetableshakesaspartofanewwonderdiet.Buthowdoes it feelwhenyouhaven’teatenfordaysonendandyouhavenocluewheretogetthenextmorseloffood?Mostpeopletodayhaveneverexperiencedthisexcruciatingtorment.Ourancestors,alas,knew itonly toowell.When theycried toGod, ‘Deliverus from famine!’,thisiswhattheyhadinmind.During the last hundred years, technological, economic and political

developments have created an increasingly robust safety net separatinghumankindfromthebiologicalpovertyline.Massfaminesstillstrikesomeareasfromtimetotime,buttheyareexceptional,andtheyarealmostalwayscausedby human politics rather than by natural catastrophes. In most parts of theplanet,evenifapersonhaslosthisjobandallofhispossessions,heisunlikelyto die from hunger. Private insurance schemes, government agencies andinternationalNGOsmaynotrescuehimfrompoverty,buttheywillprovidehimwith enough daily calories to survive.On the collective level, the global tradenetwork turns droughts and floods into business opportunities, and makes itpossible to overcome food shortages quickly and cheaply. Even when wars,

earthquakesortsunamisdevastateentirecountries,internationaleffortsusuallysucceed in preventing famine. Though hundreds of millions still go hungryalmosteveryday,inmostcountriesveryfewpeopleactuallystarvetodeath.Poverty certainly causes many other health problems, and malnutrition

shortens life expectancy even in the richest countries on earth. In France, forexample, 6 million people (about 10 per cent of the population) suffer fromnutritionalinsecurity.Theywakeupinthemorningnotknowingwhethertheywillhaveanything toeat for lunch; theyoftengo tosleephungry;and thenutritiontheydoobtainisunbalancedandunhealthy–lotsofstarch,sugarandsalt,andnot enough protein and vitamins.3 Yet nutritional insecurity isn’t famine, andFranceof theearly twenty-firstcentury isn’tFranceof1694.Even in theworstslumsaroundBeauvaisorParis,peopledon’tdiebecausetheyhavenoteatenforweeksonend.The same transformation has occurred in numerous other countries, most

notably China. For millennia, famine stalked every Chinese regime from theYellow Emperor to the Red communists. A few decades ago China was abywordforfoodshortages.TensofmillionsofChinesestarvedtodeathduringthe disastrous Great Leap Forward, and experts routinely predicted that theproblemwould only get worse. In 1974 the firstWorld FoodConferencewasconvenedinRome,anddelegatesweretreatedtoapocalypticscenarios.TheyweretoldthattherewasnowayforChinatofeeditsbillionpeople,andthattheworld’smostpopulouscountrywasheadingtowardscatastrophe.Infact,itwasheadingtowardsthegreatesteconomicmiracleinhistory.Since1974hundredsofmillionsofChinesehavebeen liftedoutofpoverty,and thoughhundredsofmillionsmorestillsuffergreatlyfromprivationandmalnutrition,forthefirsttimeinitsrecordedhistoryChinaisnowfreefromfamine.Indeed,inmostcountriestodayovereatinghasbecomeafarworseproblem

than famine. In the eighteenth centuryMarie Antoinette allegedly advised thestarvingmassesthatiftheyranoutofbread,theyshouldjusteatcakeinstead.Today,thepoorarefollowingthisadvicetotheletter.WhereastherichresidentsofBeverlyHillseatlettucesaladandsteamedtofuwithquinoa,intheslumsandghettos thepoorgorgeonTwinkiecakes,Cheetos,hamburgersandpizza. In2014more than 2.1 billion people were overweight, compared to 850millionwhosufferedfrommalnutrition.Halfofhumankindisexpectedtobeoverweightby 2030.4 In 2010 famine and malnutrition combined killed about 1 millionpeople,whereasobesitykilled3million.5

InvisibleArmadasAfter famine, humanity’s second great enemy was plagues and infectiousdiseases. Bustling cities linked by a ceaseless stream of merchants, officialsandpilgrimswereboththebedrockofhumancivilisationandanidealbreedinggroundforpathogens.PeopleconsequentlylivedtheirlivesinancientAthensormedievalFlorenceknowingthattheymightfall illanddienextweek,orthatanepidemicmightsuddenlyeruptanddestroytheirentirefamilyinoneswoop.The most famous such outbreak, the so-called Black Death, began in the

1330s, somewhere in east or central Asia, when the flea-dwelling bacteriumYersiniapestis started infectinghumansbittenby the fleas.From there, ridingonanarmyof ratsand fleas, theplaguequickly spreadall overAsia,Europeand North Africa, taking less than twenty years to reach the shores of theAtlanticOcean.Between75millionand200millionpeopledied–morethanaquarterofthepopulationofEurasia.InEngland,fouroutoftenpeopledied,andthepopulationdropped fromapre-plaguehighof3.7millionpeople toapost-plague low of 2.2 million. The city of Florence lost 50,000 of its 100,000inhabitants.6

MedievalpeoplepersonifiedtheBlackDeathasahorrificdemonicforcebeyondhumancontrolorcomprehension.

TheTriumphofDeath,c.1562,Bruegel,PietertheElder©TheArtArchive/AlamyStockPhoto.

Theauthoritieswerecompletelyhelpless in the faceof thecalamity.Exceptfororganisingmassprayersandprocessions,theyhadnoideahowtostopthespreadoftheepidemic–letalonecureit.Untilthemodernera,humansblamed

diseasesonbadair,maliciousdemonsandangrygods,anddidnotsuspecttheexistenceofbacteriaandviruses.Peoplereadilybelievedinangelsandfairies,buttheycouldnotimaginethatatinyfleaorasingledropofwatermightcontainanentirearmadaofdeadlypredators.

TherealculpritwastheminusculeYersiniapestisbacterium.©NIAID/CDC/SciencePhotoLibrary.

The Black Death was not a singular event, nor even the worst plague inhistory. More disastrous epidemics struck America, Australia and the PacificIslandsfollowingthearrivalofthefirstEuropeans.Unbeknowntotheexplorersandsettlers,theybroughtwiththemnewinfectiousdiseasesagainstwhichthenativeshadno immunity.Up to90percentof the localpopulationsdiedasaresult.7On5March1520asmallSpanishflotillalefttheislandofCubaonitswayto

Mexico.Theshipscarried900Spanishsoldiersalongwithhorses,firearmsanda few African slaves. One of the slaves, Francisco de Eguía, carried on hispersonafardeadliercargo.Franciscodidn’tknowit,butsomewhereamonghistrillions of cells a biological time bomb was ticking: the smallpox virus. AfterFrancisco landed inMexicothevirusbegantomultiplyexponentiallywithinhisbody, eventually bursting out all over his skin in a terrible rash. The feverishFranciscowastakentobedinthehouseofaNativeAmericanfamilyinthetownofCempoallan.He infected the familymembers,who infected theneighbours.WithintendaysCempoallanbecameagraveyard.RefugeesspreadthediseasefromCempoallan to the nearby towns. As town after town succumbed to theplague,newwavesof terrifiedrefugeescarriedthediseasethroughoutMexico

andbeyond.TheMayas intheYucatánPeninsulabelievedthat threeevilgods–Ekpetz,

Uzannkak and Sojakak –were flying from village to village at night, infectingpeoplewith the disease. TheAztecs blamed it on the godsTezcatlipoca andXipe, or perhapson theblackmagic of thewhite people.Priests anddoctorswere consulted. They advised prayers, cold baths, rubbing the body withbitumen and smearing squashed black beetles on the sores. Nothing helped.Tensofthousandsofcorpseslayrottinginthestreets,withoutanyonedaringtoapproach and bury them. Entire families perishedwithin a few days, and theauthoritiesorderedthatthehousesweretobecollapsedontopofthebodies.Insomesettlementshalfthepopulationdied.In September 1520 the plague had reached the Valley of Mexico, and in

October itentered thegatesof theAzteccapital,Tenochtitlan–amagnificentmetropolis of 250,000 people. Within two months at least a third of thepopulationperished,includingtheAztecemperorCuitláhuac.WhereasinMarch1520,whentheSpanishfleetarrived,Mexicowashometo22millionpeople,byDecemberonly14millionwerestillalive.Smallpoxwasonlythefirstblow.Whilethe new Spanishmasters were busy enriching themselves and exploiting thenatives, deadly waves of flu, measles and other infectious diseases struckMexicooneaftertheother,untilin1580itspopulationwasdowntolessthan2million.8Twocenturieslater,on18January1778,theBritishexplorerCaptainJames

CookreachedHawaii.TheHawaiian islandsweredenselypopulatedbyhalfamillionpeople,who lived incomplete isolation frombothEuropeandAmerica,and consequently had never been exposed to European and Americandiseases.CaptainCook and hismen introduced the first flu, tuberculosis andsyphilispathogenstoHawaii.SubsequentEuropeanvisitorsaddedtyphoidandsmallpox.By1853,only70,000survivorsremainedinHawaii.9Epidemics continued to kill tens ofmillions of peoplewell into the twentieth

century. In January 1918 soldiers in the trenches of northern France begandyingintheirthousandsfromaparticularlyvirulentstrainofflu,nicknamed‘theSpanishFlu’.Thefrontlinewastheendpointofthemostefficientglobalsupplynetwork theworldhadhithertoseen.Menandmunitionswerepouring in fromBritain, theUSA, IndiaandAustralia.Oilwassent fromtheMiddleEast,grainand beef from Argentina, rubber from Malaya and copper from Congo. Inexchange, they all got Spanish Flu.Within a fewmonths, about half a billionpeople–athirdoftheglobalpopulation–camedownwiththevirus.InIndiaitkilled5percentofthepopulation(15millionpeople).OntheislandofTahiti,14percentdied.OnSamoa,20percent.InthecopperminesoftheCongooneout

of five labourers perished. Altogether the pandemic killed between 50millionand100millionpeopleinlessthanayear.TheFirstWorldWarkilled40millionfrom1914to1918.10Alongside such epidemical tsunamis that struck humankind every few

decades, people also faced smaller but more regular waves of infectiousdiseases,whichkilledmillionseveryyear.Childrenwho lacked immunitywereparticularly susceptible to them, hence they are often called ‘childhooddiseases’.Untiltheearlytwentiethcentury,aboutathirdofchildrendiedbeforereachingadulthoodfromacombinationofmalnutritionanddisease.During the last century humankind became ever more vulnerable to

epidemics,duetoacombinationofgrowingpopulationsandbettertransport.Amodern metropolis such as Tokyo or Kinshasa offers pathogens far richerhunting grounds thanmedieval Florence or 1520Tenochtitlan, and the globaltransportnetworkistodayevenmoreefficientthanin1918.ASpanishviruscanmake its way to Congo or Tahiti in less than twenty-four hours. We shouldtherefore have expected to live in an epidemiological hell, with one deadlyplagueafteranother.However, both the incidence and impact of epidemics have gone down

dramaticallyinthelastfewdecades.Inparticular,globalchildmortalityisatanall-time low: less than5percentofchildrendiebefore reachingadulthood. Inthedevelopedworldtherateislessthan1percent.11Thismiracleisduetotheunprecedented achievements of twentieth-century medicine, which hasprovideduswithvaccinations,antibiotics,improvedhygieneandamuchbettermedicalinfrastructure.Forexample, aglobal campaignof smallpox vaccinationwasso successful

that in 1979 theWorld HealthOrganization declared that humanity had won,and that smallpox had been completely eradicated. It was the first epidemichumanshadevermanagedtowipeoff the faceof theearth. In1967smallpoxhadstillinfected15millionpeopleandkilled2millionofthem,butin2014notasinglepersonwaseitherinfectedorkilledbysmallpox.Thevictoryhasbeensocomplete that today the WHO has stopped vaccinating humans againstsmallpox.12Every few years we are alarmed by the outbreak of some potential new

plague, such as SARS in 2002/3, bird flu in 2005, swine flu in 2009/10 andEbolain2014.Yetthankstoefficientcounter-measurestheseincidentshavesofar resulted in a comparatively small number of victims. SARS, for example,initiallyraisedfearsofanewBlackDeath,buteventuallyendedwiththedeathoflessthan1,000peopleworldwide.13TheEbolaoutbreakinWestAfricaseemed

atfirsttospiraloutofcontrol,andon26September2014theWHOdescribeditas ‘the most severe public health emergency seen in modern times’.14Nevertheless,byearly2015 theepidemichadbeen reined in,and inJanuary2016 the WHO declared it over. It infected 30,000 people (killing 11,000 ofthem), caused massive economic damage throughout West Africa, and sentshockwaves of anxiety across the world; but it did not spread beyond WestAfrica,anditsdeathtollwasnowherenearthescaleof theSpanishFluor theMexicansmallpoxepidemic.Even the tragedyofAIDS,seemingly thegreatestmedical failureof the last

fewdecades,canbeseenasasignofprogress.Sinceitsfirstmajoroutbreakinthe early 1980s,more than 30million people have died ofAIDS, and tens ofmillionsmorehavesuffereddebilitatingphysicalandpsychologicaldamage. Itwashardtounderstandandtreatthenewepidemic,becauseAIDSisauniquelydeviousdisease.Whereasahumaninfectedwiththesmallpoxvirusdieswithina fewdays,anHIV-positivepatientmayseemperfectlyhealthy forweeksandmonths,yetgooninfectingothersunknowingly. Inaddition,theHIVvirus itselfdoes not kill. Rather, it destroys the immune system, thereby exposing thepatienttonumerousotherdiseases.ItisthesesecondarydiseasesthatactuallykillAIDSvictims.Consequently,whenAIDSbegantospread,itwasespeciallydifficulttounderstandwhatwashappening.Whentwopatientswereadmittedtoa New York hospital in 1981, one ostensibly dying from pneumonia and theotherfromcancer, itwasnotatallevidentthatbothwereinfactvictimsoftheHIVvirus,whichmayhaveinfectedthemmonthsorevenyearspreviously.15However, despite these difficulties, after the medical community became

awareofthemysteriousnewplague,ittookscientistsjusttwoyearstoidentifyit,understandhowthevirusspreadsandsuggesteffectivewaystoslowdowntheepidemic.WithinanothertenyearsnewmedicinesturnedAIDSfromadeathsentenceintoachroniccondition(atleastforthosewealthyenoughtoaffordthetreatment).16JustthinkwhatwouldhavehappenedifAIDShaderuptedin1581rather than 1981. In all likelihood, nobody back then would have figured outwhatcausedtheepidemic,howitmovedfrompersontoperson,orhowitcouldbe halted (let alone cured). Under such conditions, AIDSmight have killed amuch larger proportion of the human race, equalling and perhaps evensurpassingtheBlackDeath.Despite the horrendous toll AIDS has taken, and despite themillions killed

eachyearby long-established infectiousdiseasessuchasmalaria,epidemicsarea far smaller threat tohumanhealth today than inpreviousmillennia.Thevast majority of people die from non-infectious illnesses such as cancer and

heartdisease,orsimplyfromoldage.17(Incidentallycancerandheartdiseaseare of course not new illnesses – they go back to antiquity. In previous eras,however,relativelyfewpeoplelivedlongenoughtodiefromthem.)Manyfearthatthisisonlyatemporaryvictory,andthatsomeunknowncousin

oftheBlackDeathiswaitingjustaroundthecorner.Noonecanguaranteethatplagueswon’tmakeacomeback,buttherearegoodreasonstothinkthatinthearms race between doctors and germs, doctors run faster. New infectiousdiseasesappearmainlyasaresultofchancemutationsinpathogengenomes.These mutations allow the pathogens to jump from animals to humans, toovercomethehumanimmunesystem,ortoresistmedicinessuchasantibiotics.Todaysuchmutationsprobablyoccuranddisseminate faster than in thepast,due tohuman impacton theenvironment.18Yet in the raceagainstmedicine,pathogensultimatelydependontheblindhandoffortune.Doctors, incontrast,countonmorethanmere luck.Thoughscienceowesa

hugedebt to serendipity, doctorsdon’t just throwdifferent chemicals into testtubes, hoping to chance upon some new medicine. With each passing yeardoctors accumulate more and better knowledge, which they use in order todesignmoreeffectivemedicinesandtreatments.Consequently,thoughin2050wewillundoubtedlyfacemuchmoreresilientgerms,medicinein2050willlikelybeabletodealwiththemmoreefficientlythantoday.19In 2015 doctors announced the discovery of a completely new type of

antibiotic – teixobactin – to which bacteria have no resistance as yet. Somescholarsbelieveteixobactinmayprovetobeagame-changerinthefightagainsthighly resistant germs.20 Scientists are also developing revolutionary newtreatments thatwork in radically differentways to any previousmedicine. Forexample, some research labsare already home to nano-robots, thatmayonedaynavigatethroughourbloodstream,identifyillnessesandkillpathogensandcancerous cells.21 Microorganisms may have 4 billion years of cumulativeexperience fighting organic enemies, but they have exactly zero experiencefighting bionic predators, and would therefore find it doubly difficult to evolveeffectivedefences.SowhilewecannotbecertainthatsomenewEbolaoutbreakoranunknown

flustrainwon’tsweepacrosstheglobeandkillmillions,wewillnotregarditasan inevitablenaturalcalamity.Rather,wewill see itasan inexcusablehumanfailureanddemandtheheadsofthoseresponsible.Wheninlatesummer2014itseemedforafewterrifyingweeksthatEbolawasgainingtheupperhandoverthe global health authorities, investigative committeeswere hastily set up. Aninitial report published on 18 October 2014 criticised the World Health

Organization for its unsatisfactory reaction to the outbreak, blaming theepidemic on corruption and inefficiency in theWHO’sAfricanbranch. Furthercriticism was levelled at the international community as a whole for notresponding quickly and forcefully enough. Such criticism assumes thathumankindhastheknowledgeandtoolstopreventplagues,andifanepidemicnevertheless gets out of control, it is due to human incompetence rather thandivineanger.So in the struggle against natural calamities such as AIDS and Ebola, the

scalesaretippinginhumanity’sfavour.Butwhataboutthedangersinherentinhumannature itself?Biotechnologyenablesus todefeatbacteriaandviruses,but it simultaneously turns humans themselves into an unprecedented threat.The same tools that enable doctors to quickly identify and cure new illnessesmayalsoenablearmiesand terrorists toengineerevenmore terriblediseasesand doomsday pathogens. It is therefore likely that major epidemics willcontinue to endanger humankind in the future only if humankind itself createsthem,intheserviceofsomeruthlessideology.Theerawhenhumankindstoodhelplessbeforenaturalepidemicsisprobablyover.Butwemaycometomissit.

BreakingtheLawoftheJungleThe third piece of good news is that wars too are disappearing. Throughouthistorymosthumanstookwarforgranted,whereaspeacewasatemporaryandprecariousstate.InternationalrelationsweregovernedbytheLawoftheJungle,accordingtowhicheveniftwopolitieslivedinpeace,waralwaysremainedanoption.Forexample,eventhoughGermanyandFrancewereatpeacein1913,everybodyknewthat theymightbeateachother’s throats in1914.Wheneverpoliticians,generals,businesspeopleandordinarycitizensmadeplansfor thefuture,theyalwaysleftroomforwar.FromtheStoneAgetotheageofsteam,and from the Arctic to the Sahara, every person on earth knew that at anymomenttheneighboursmightinvadetheirterritory,defeattheirarmy,slaughtertheirpeopleandoccupytheirland.During the second half of the twentieth century this Law of the Jungle has

finally been broken, if not rescinded. In most areas wars became rarer thanever.Whereasinancientagriculturalsocietieshumanviolencecausedabout15percentofalldeaths,during the twentiethcenturyviolencecausedonly5percentofdeaths,andintheearlytwenty-firstcenturyitisresponsibleforabout1percentofglobalmortality.22 In2012about56millionpeopledied throughoutthe world; 620,000 of them died due to human violence (war killed 120,000

people, and crime killed another 500,000). In contrast, 800,000 committedsuicide,and1.5milliondiedofdiabetes.23Sugar isnowmoredangerous thangunpowder.Evenmore importantly, a growing segment of humankind has come to see

war as simply inconceivable. For the first time in history, when governments,corporations and private individuals consider their immediate future, many ofthemdon’tthinkaboutwarasalikelyevent.Nuclearweaponshaveturnedwarbetweensuperpowersintoamadactofcollectivesuicide,andthereforeforcedthe most powerful nations on earth to find alternative and peaceful ways toresolve conflicts. Simultaneously, the global economy has been transformedfromamaterial-based economy into a knowledge-based economy.Previouslythe main sources of wealth were material assets such as gold mines, wheatfieldsandoilwells.Todaythemainsourceofwealthisknowledge.Andwhereasyoucanconqueroilfieldsthroughwar,youcannotacquireknowledgethatway.Hence as knowledge became the most important economic resource, theprofitability of war declined andwars became increasingly restricted to thoseparts of the world – such as theMiddle East andCentral Africa – where theeconomiesarestillold-fashionedmaterial-basedeconomies.In1998itmadesenseforRwandatoseizeandloottherichcoltanminesof

neighbouringCongo,becausethisorewasinhighdemandforthemanufactureofmobilephonesandlaptops,andCongoheld80percentoftheworld’scoltanreserves.Rwandaearned$240millionannuallyfromthelootedcoltan.ForpoorRwandathatwasalotofmoney.24Incontrast,itwouldhavemadenosenseforChinatoinvadeCaliforniaandseizeSiliconValley,foreveniftheChinesecouldsomehowprevailonthebattlefield,therewerenosiliconminestolootinSiliconValley. Instead, the Chinese have earned billions of dollars from cooperatingwith hi-tech giants such as Apple and Microsoft, buying their software andmanufacturing their products. What Rwanda earned from an entire year oflooting Congolese coltan, the Chinese earn in a single day of peacefulcommerce.In consequence, the word ‘peace’ has acquired a new meaning. Previous

generations thoughtaboutpeaceas the temporaryabsenceofwar.Todaywethinkaboutpeaceas the implausibilityofwar.When in1913peoplesaid thattherewaspeacebetweenFranceandGermany,theymeantthat‘thereisnowargoingonatpresentbetweenFranceandGermany,butwhoknowswhatnextyearwill bring’.When todaywe say that there is peace between France andGermany, we mean that it is inconceivable under any foreseeablecircumstancesthatwarmightbreakoutbetweenthem.SuchpeaceprevailsnotonlybetweenFranceandGermany,butbetweenmost(thoughnotall)countries.

ThereisnoscenarioforaseriouswarbreakingoutnextyearbetweenGermanyand Poland, between Indonesia and the Philippines, or between Brazil andUruguay.ThisNewPeaceisnotjustahippiefantasy.Power-hungrygovernmentsand

greedycorporationsalsocountonit.WhenMercedesplansitssalesstrategyineasternEurope,itdiscountsthepossibilitythatGermanymightconquerPoland.AcorporationimportingcheaplabourersfromthePhilippinesisnotworriedthatIndonesia might invade the Philippines next year. When the Braziliangovernmentconvenestodiscussnextyear’sbudget, it’sunimaginablethattheBraziliandefenceministerwill risefromhisseat,banghisfistonthetableandshout, ‘Just aminute!What ifwewant to invadeand conquerUruguay?Youdidn’t take that into account. We have to put aside $5 billion to finance thisconquest.’Ofcourse, therearea fewplaceswheredefenceministersstillsaysuchthings,andthereareregionswheretheNewPeacehasfailedtotakeroot.I know this very well because I live in one of these regions. But these areexceptions.There is no guarantee, of course, that theNewPeacewill hold indefinitely.

Just as nuclearweaponsmade theNewPeacepossible in the first place, sofuturetechnologicaldevelopmentsmightset thestagefornewkindsofwar. Inparticular, cyber warfare may destabilise the world by giving even smallcountriesandnon-stateactorstheabilitytofightsuperpowerseffectively.WhentheUSAfoughtIraqin2003itbroughthavoctoBaghdadandMosul,butnotasinglebombwasdroppedonLosAngelesorChicago. In the future, though,acountry such asNorthKorea or Iran could use logic bombs to shut down thepower inCalifornia, blow up refineries in Texas and cause trains to collide inMichigan(‘logicbombs’aremalicioussoftwarecodesplantedinpeacetimeandoperated at a distance. It is highly likely that networks controlling vitalinfrastructure facilities in the USA and many other countries are alreadycrammedwithsuchcodes).However,weshouldnotconfuseabilitywithmotivation.Thoughcyberwarfare

introducesnewmeansofdestruction,itdoesn’tnecessarilyaddnewincentivesto use them.Over the last seventy years humankind has broken not only theLaw of the Jungle, but also theChekhov Law. AntonChekhov famously saidthatagunappearinginthefirstactofaplaywillinevitablybefiredinthethird.Throughouthistory,ifkingsandemperorsacquiredsomenewweapon,sooneror later they were tempted to use it. Since 1945, however, humankind haslearned to resist this temptation. The gun that appeared in the first act of theColdWarwasneverfired.Bynowweareaccustomedtolivinginaworldfullofundropped bombs and unlaunched missiles, and have become experts in

breakingboththeLawoftheJungleandtheChekhovLaw.Iftheselawseverdocatchupwithus,itwillbeourownfault–notourinescapabledestiny.

NuclearmissilesonparadeinMoscow.Thegunthatwasalwaysondisplaybutneverfired.Moscow,1968©Sovfoto/UIGviaGettyImages.

Whataboutterrorism,then?Evenifcentralgovernmentsandpowerfulstateshave learned restraint, terroristsmight haveno suchqualmsabout usingnewand destructive weapons. That is certainly a worrying possibility. However,terrorism isastrategyofweaknessadoptedby thosewho lackaccess to realpower.At least in thepast, terrorismworkedbyspreading fear rather thanbycausingsignificantmaterialdamage.Terroristsusuallydon’thave thestrengthtodefeatanarmy,occupyacountryordestroyentirecities.Whereas in2010obesityandrelatedillnesseskilledabout3millionpeople,terroristskilledatotalof7,697peopleacross theglobe,mostof them indevelopingcountries.25FortheaverageAmericanorEuropean,Coca-Colaposesafardeadlierthreatthanal-Qaeda.How, then,do terroristsmanage todominate theheadlinesandchange the

politicalsituationthroughouttheworld?Byprovokingtheirenemiestooverreact.In essence, terrorism is a show. Terrorists stage a terrifying spectacle ofviolence that captures our imagination andmakes us feel as ifweare slidingbackintomedievalchaos.Consequentlystatesoftenfeelobligedtoreacttothetheatreof terrorismwithashowofsecurity,orchestrating immensedisplaysofforce, such as the persecution of entire populations or the invasion of foreigncountries.Inmostcases,thisoverreactiontoterrorismposesafargreaterthreattooursecuritythantheterroriststhemselves.Terroristsare likeafly that triestodestroyachinashop.Thefly issoweak

that itcannotbudgeevenasingleteacup.Soit findsabull,gets insideitsearand starts buzzing. The bull goeswildwith fear and anger, and destroys the

chinashop.ThisiswhathappenedintheMiddleEastinthelastdecade.Islamicfundamentalists could never have toppled Saddam Hussein by themselves.InsteadtheyenragedtheUSAbythe9/11attacks,andtheUSAdestroyedtheMiddle Eastern china shop for them. Now they flourish in the wreckage. Bythemselves,terroristsaretooweaktodragusbacktotheMiddleAgesandre-establishtheJungleLaw.Theymayprovokeus,butintheend,italldependsonourreactions.IftheJungleLawcomesbackintoforce,itwillnotbethefaultofterrorists.

Famine,plagueandwarwillprobablycontinuetoclaimmillionsofvictimsinthecoming decades. Yet they are no longer unavoidable tragedies beyond theunderstandingandcontrol ofahelplesshumanity. Instead, theyhavebecomemanageable challenges. This does not belittle the suffering of hundreds ofmillionsofpoverty-strickenhumans;ofthemillionsfelledeachyearbymalaria,AIDS and tuberculosis; or of the millions trapped in violent vicious circles inSyria, theCongoorAfghanistan.Themessage isnot that famine,plagueandwarhavecompletelydisappearedfromthefaceoftheearth,andthatweshouldstop worrying about them. Just the opposite. Throughout history people feltthesewereunsolvableproblems,sotherewasnopoint tryingtoputanendtothem.PeopleprayedtoGodformiracles,buttheythemselvesdidnotseriouslyattempttoexterminatefamine,plagueandwar.Thosearguingthattheworldof2016 is as hungry, sick and violent as itwas in 1916perpetuate this age-olddefeatistview.Theyimplythatallthehugeeffortshumanshavemadeduringthetwentiethcenturyhaveachievednothing,andthatmedicalresearch,economicreforms and peace initiatives have all been in vain. If so,what is the point ofinvesting our time and resources in furthermedical research, novel economicreformsornewpeaceinitiatives?Acknowledging our past achievements sends a message of hope and

responsibility,encouragingustomakeevengreatereffortsinthefuture.Givenourtwentieth-centuryaccomplishments,ifpeoplecontinuetosufferfromfamine,plagueandwar,wecannotblameitonnatureoronGod.Itiswithinourpowertomakethingsbetterandtoreducetheincidenceofsufferingevenfurther.Yet appreciating the magnitude of our achievements carries another

message: history does not tolerate a vacuum. If incidences of famine, plagueandwararedecreasing,something isbound to take theirplaceon thehumanagenda.Wehadbetterthinkverycarefullywhatitisgoingtobe.Otherwise,wemightgaincompletevictory intheoldbattlefieldsonly tobecaughtcompletelyunawareonentirelynewfronts.Whatare theprojects thatwill replace famine,plagueandwaratthetopofthehumanagendainthetwenty-firstcentury?

Onecentral projectwill be toprotect humankindand theplanet asawholefromthedangersinherentinourownpower.Wehavemanagedtobringfamine,plague and war under control thanks largely to our phenomenal economicgrowth, which provides us with abundant food, medicine, energy and rawmaterials. Yet this same growth destabilises the ecological equilibrium of theplanet inmyriadways,whichwehaveonlybegun toexplore.Humankindhasbeenlateinacknowledgingthisdanger,andhassofardoneverylittleaboutit.Despite all the talk of pollution, global warming and climate change, mostcountries have yet to make any serious economic or political sacrifices toimprove thesituation.When themomentcomes tochoosebetweeneconomicgrowth and ecological stability, politicians, CEOs and voters almost alwaysprefergrowth.Inthetwenty-firstcentury,weshallhavetodobetterifwearetoavoidcatastrophe.Whatelsewillhumanitystrivefor?Wouldwebecontentmerelytocountour

blessings, keep famine, plague and war at bay, and protect the ecologicalequilibrium?Thatmightindeedbethewisestcourseofaction,buthumankindisunlikelytofollowit.Humansarerarelysatisfiedwithwhattheyalreadyhave.Themostcommonreactionofthehumanmindtoachievementisnotsatisfaction,butcraving for more. Humans are always on the lookout for something better,bigger, tastier.Whenhumankindpossessesenormousnewpowers,andwhenthe threat of famine, plague and war is finally lifted, what will we do withourselves? What will the scientists, investors, bankers and presidents do allday?Writepoetry?Success breeds ambition, and our recent achievements are now pushing

humankindtosetitselfevenmoredaringgoals.Havingsecuredunprecedentedlevels of prosperity, health and harmony, and given our past record and ourcurrent values, humanity’s next targets are likely to be immortality, happinessanddivinity.Havingreducedmortalityfromstarvation,diseaseandviolence,wewillnowaim toovercomeoldageandevendeath itself.Havingsavedpeoplefromabjectmisery,wewillnowaimtomakethempositivelyhappy.Andhavingraisedhumanityabovethebeastlylevelofsurvivalstruggles,wewillnowaimtoupgradehumansintogods,andturnHomosapiensintoHomodeus.

TheLastDaysofDeathIn the twenty-first century humans are likely to make a serious bid forimmortality.Strugglingagainstoldageanddeathwillmerelycarryonthetime-honouredfightagainstfamineanddisease,andmanifestthesupremevalueof

contemporaryculture:theworthofhumanlife.Weareconstantlyremindedthathuman life is the most sacred thing in the universe. Everybody says this:teachers inschools,politicians inparliaments, lawyers incourtsandactorsontheatrestages.TheUniversalDeclarationofHumanRightsadoptedbytheUNaftertheSecondWorldWar–whichisperhapstheclosestthingwehavetoaglobalconstitution–categoricallystatesthat‘therighttolife’ishumanity’smostfundamental value. Since death clearly violates this right, death is a crimeagainsthumanity,andweoughttowagetotalwaragainstit.Throughout history, religions and ideologies did not sanctify life itself. They

always sanctified something above or beyond earthly existence, and wereconsequentlyquitetolerantofdeath.Indeed,someofthemhavebeendownrightfondoftheGrimReaper.BecauseChristianity,IslamandHinduisminsistedthatthemeaningofourexistencedependedonourfateintheafterlife,theyvieweddeath as a vital and positive part of the world. Humans died because Goddecreed it, and theirmoment of deathwasa sacredmetaphysical experienceexplodingwithmeaning.Whenahumanwasabouttobreathehislast,thiswasthetimetocallpriests,rabbisandshamans,todrawoutthebalanceoflife,andtoembraceone’strueroleintheuniverse.JusttrytoimagineChristianity,IslamorHinduisminaworldwithoutdeath–whichisalsoaworldwithoutheaven,hellorreincarnation.Modernscienceandmodernculturehaveanentirelydifferenttakeonlifeand

death.Theydon’t thinkofdeathasametaphysicalmystery,andtheycertainlydon’t view death as the source of life’s meaning. Rather, for modern peopledeathisatechnicalproblemthatwecanandshouldsolve.Howexactlydohumansdie?MedievalfairytalesdepictedDeathasafigure

inahoodedblackcloak,hishandgrippinga largescythe.Amanliveshis life,worryingabout thisand that, runninghereand there,whensuddenly theGrimReaper appears before him, taps him on the shoulderwith a bony finger andsays,‘Come!’Andthemanimplores:‘No,please!Wait justayear,amonth,aday!’Butthehoodedfigurehisses:‘No!YoumustcomeNOW!’Andthisishowwedie.Inreality,however,humansdon’tdiebecausea figure inablackcloaktaps

them on the shoulder, or becauseGod decreed it, or becausemortality is anessential part of some great cosmic plan. Humans always die due to sometechnicalglitch.Theheartstopspumpingblood.Themainarteryiscloggedbyfattydeposits.Cancerouscellsspreadintheliver.Germsmultiply inthelungs.And what is responsible for all these technical problems? Other technicalproblems.Theheartstopspumpingbloodbecausenotenoughoxygenreachestheheartmuscle.Cancerouscellsspreadbecauseachancegeneticmutation

rewrote their instructions. Germs settled in my lungs because somebodysneezed on the subway. Nothing metaphysical about it. It is all technicalproblems.

DeathpersonifiedastheGrimReaperinmedievalart.‘Deathanddying’from14th-centuryFrenchmanuscript:PilgrimageoftheHumanLife,BodleianLibrary,

Oxford©ArtMedia/PrintCollector/GettyImages.

Andeverytechnicalproblemhasatechnicalsolution.Wedon’tneedtowaitfortheSecondCominginordertoovercomedeath.Acoupleofgeeksinalabcandoit.Iftraditionallydeathwasthespecialityofpriestsandtheologians,nowthe engineers are taking over. We can kill the cancerous cells withchemotherapyornano-robots.Wecanexterminatethegermsinthe lungswithantibiotics.Iftheheartstopspumping,wecanreinvigorateitwithmedicinesandelectricshocks–andifthatdoesn’twork,wecanimplantanewheart.True,atpresentwedon’thavesolutions toall technicalproblems.But this ispreciselywhyweinvestsomuchtimeandmoneyinresearchingcancer,germs,geneticsandnanotechnology.Even ordinary people, who are not engaged in scientific research, have

becomeused to thinkingaboutdeathasa technicalproblem.Whenawomangoes toherphysicianandasks, ‘Doctor,what’swrongwithme?’ thedoctor islikely tosay, ‘Well, youhave the flu,’or ‘Youhave tuberculosis,’or ‘Youhavecancer.’But thedoctorwillneversay, ‘Youhavedeath.’Andweareallundertheimpressionthatflu,tuberculosisandcanceraretechnicalproblems,towhichwemightsomedayfindatechnicalsolution.Evenwhenpeopledieinahurricane,acaraccidentorawar,wetendtoview

it as a technical failure that could and should have been prevented. If thegovernmenthadonlyadoptedabetterpolicy;ifthemunicipalityhaddoneitsjobproperly;andifthemilitarycommanderhadtakenawiserdecision,deathwouldhavebeenavoided.Deathhasbecomeanalmostautomaticreasonforlawsuitsand investigations. ‘How could they have died? Somebody somewhere must

havescrewedup.’Thevastmajorityofscientists,doctorsandscholarsstilldistancethemselves

fromoutright dreamsof immortality, claiming that they are trying to overcomeonly this or that particular problem. Yet because old age and death are theoutcomeofnothingbutparticularproblems, there isnopointatwhichdoctorsandscientistsaregoingtostopanddeclare:‘Thusfar,andnotanotherstep.Wehave overcome tuberculosis and cancer, but we won’t lift a finger to fightAlzheimer’s. People can go on dying from that.’ TheUniversal Declaration ofHumanRightsdoesnotsay thathumanshave ‘theright to lifeuntil theageofninety’.Itsaysthateveryhumanhasarighttolife,period.Thatrightisn’tlimitedbyanyexpirydate.An increasing minority of scientists and thinkers consequently speak more

openlythesedays,andstatethattheflagshipenterpriseofmodernscienceistodefeat death and grant humans eternal youth. Notable examples are thegerontologist Aubrey de Grey and the polymath and inventor Ray Kurzweil(winnerofthe1999USNationalMedalofTechnologyandInnovation).In2012Kurzweil was appointed a director of engineering atGoogle, and a year laterGooglelaunchedasub-companycalledCalicowhosestatedmissionis‘tosolvedeath’.26 Google has recently appointed another immortality true-believer, BillMaris,topresideovertheGoogleVenturesinvestmentfund.InaJanuary2015interview,Marissaid, ‘Ifyouaskme today, is itpossible to live tobe500, theanswerisyes.’Marisbacksuphisbravewordswithalotofhardcash.GoogleVentures is investing36percentof its$2billionportfolio in lifesciencesstart-ups, including several ambitious life-extending projects. Using an Americanfootballanalogy,Marisexplainedthatinthefightagainstdeath,‘Wearen’ttryingtogainafewyards.Wearetryingtowinthegame.’Why?Because,saysMaris,‘itisbettertolivethantodie’.27Such dreams are shared by other Silicon Valley luminaries. PayPal co-

founderPeterThielhasrecentlyconfessedthatheaimstoliveforever.‘Ithinkthere are probably three main modes of approaching [death],’ he explained.‘You can accept it, you can deny it or you can fight it. I think our society isdominatedbypeoplewhoareintodenialoracceptance,andIprefertofightit.’Many people are likely to dismiss such statements as teenage fantasies. YetThielissomebodytobetakenveryseriously.HeisoneofthemostsuccessfulandinfluentialentrepreneursinSiliconValleywithaprivatefortuneestimatedat$2.2billion.28Thewritingisonthewall:equalityisout–immortalityisin.The breakneck development of fields such as genetic engineering,

regenerative medicine and nanotechnology fosters ever more optimisticprophecies.Some experts believe that humanswill overcomedeath by 2200,

otherssay2100.KurzweilanddeGreyareevenmoresanguine.Theymaintainthatanyonepossessingahealthybodyandahealthybankaccountin2050willhave a serious shot at immortality by cheating death a decade at a time.AccordingtoKurzweilanddeGrey,everytenyearsorsowewillmarchintotheclinicandreceiveamakeovertreatmentthatwillnotonlycureillnesses,butwillalsoregeneratedecayingtissues,andupgradehands,eyesandbrains.Beforethe next treatment is due, doctors will have invented a plethora of newmedicines,upgradesandgadgets.IfKurzweilanddeGreyareright,theremayalready be some immortalswalking next to you on the street – at least if youhappentobewalkingdownWallStreetorFifthAvenue.Intruththeywillactuallybea-mortal,ratherthanimmortal.UnlikeGod,future

superhumans could still die in somewar or accident, andnothing could bringthem back from the netherworld. However, unlike us mortals, their life wouldhavenoexpirydate.Solongasnobombshredsthemtopiecesornotruckrunsthemover, theycouldgoon living indefinitely.Whichwillprobablymake themthemostanxiouspeopleinhistory.Wemortalsdailytakechanceswithourlives,because we know they are going to end anyhow. So we go on treks in theHimalayas,swiminthesea,anddomanyotherdangerousthingslikecrossingthestreetoreatingout.But if youbelieveyoucan live forever, youwouldbecrazytogambleoninfinitylikethat.Perhaps,then,wehadbetterstartwithmoremodestaims,suchasdoubling

life expectancy? In the twentieth century we have almost doubled lifeexpectancy from forty to seventy, so in the twenty-first century we should atleastbeable todouble itagain to150.Though falling far shortof immortality,this would still revolutionise human society. For starters, family structure,marriagesandchild–parentrelationshipswouldbetransformed.Today,peoplestillexpecttobemarried‘tilldeathusdopart’,andmuchofliferevolvesaroundhavingandraisingchildren.Nowtrytoimagineapersonwithalifespanof150years.Gettingmarriedatforty,shestillhas110yearstogo.Willitberealistictoexpect her marriage to last 110 years? Even Catholic fundamentalists mightbaulk at that. So the current trend of serial marriages is likely to intensify.Bearingtwochildreninherforties,shewill,bythetimesheis120,haveonlyadistantmemoryoftheyearsshespentraisingthem–aratherminorepisodeinher long life. It’s hard to tell what kind of new parent–child relationshipmightdevelopundersuchcircumstances.Or consider professional careers. Today we assume that you learn a

professioninyourteensandtwenties,andthenspendtherestofyourlifeinthatlineofwork.Youobviouslylearnnewthingseveninyourfortiesandfifties,butlife is generally divided into a learning period followed by a working period.

Whenyou live tobe150 thatwon’tdo,especially inaworld that isconstantlybeingshakenbynewtechnologies.Peoplewillhavemuchlongercareers,andwillhavetoreinventthemselvesagainandagainevenattheageofninety.Atthesametime,peoplewillnotretireatsixty-fiveandwillnotmakewayfor

the new generation with its novel ideas and aspirations. The physicist MaxPlanck famously said that science advances one funeral at a time.Hemeantthatonlywhenonegenerationpassesawaydonewtheorieshaveachancetorootoutoldones.Thisistruenotonlyofscience.Thinkforamomentaboutyourownworkplace.Nomatterwhetheryouareascholar,journalist,cookorfootballplayer, howwould you feel if your bosswere 120, his ideaswere formulatedwhenVictoriawasstillqueen,andhewaslikelytostayyourbossforacoupleofdecadesmore?Inthepoliticalspheretheresultsmightbeevenmoresinister.Wouldyoumind

having Putin stick around for another ninety years? On second thoughts, ifpeople lived to150, then in2016Stalinwouldstillbe ruling inMoscow,goingstrong at 138, Chairman Mao would be a middle-aged 123-year-old, andPrincessElizabethwouldbesittingonherhandswaitingtoinheritfromthe121-year-oldGeorgeVI.HersonCharleswouldnotgethisturnuntil2076.Comingback to therealmof reality, it is far fromcertainwhetherKurzweil’s

anddeGrey’sprophecieswillcometrueby2050or2100.Myownviewisthatthe hopes of eternal youth in the twenty-first century are premature, andwhoevertakesthemtooseriouslyisinforabitterdisappointment.Itisnoteasyto live knowing that you are going to die, but it is even harder to believe inimmortalityandbeprovenwrong.Althoughaveragelifeexpectancyhasdoubledoverthelasthundredyears,it

isunwarrantedtoextrapolateandconcludethatwecandoubleitagainto150inthe coming century. In 1900 global life expectancy was no higher than fortybecause many people died young from malnutrition, infectious diseases andviolence. Yet thosewho escaped famine, plague andwar could live well intotheir seventies and eighties, which is the natural life span ofHomo sapiens.Contrary tocommonnotions,seventy-year-oldsweren’tconsideredrarefreaksof nature in previous centuries. Galileo Galilei died at seventy-seven, IsaacNewton at eighty-four, andMichelangelo lived to the ripe age of eighty-eight,without any help from antibiotics, vaccinations or organ transplants. Indeed,evenchimpanzeesinthejunglesometimesliveintotheirsixties.29In truth, so farmodernmedicine hasn’t extended our natural life span by a

singleyear. Itsgreatachievementhasbeen tosaveus fromprematuredeath,andallowus toenjoy the fullmeasureofouryears.Even ifwenowovercomecancer, diabetes and the other major killers, it would mean only that almost

everyonewill get to live to ninety – but itwill not be enough to reach150, letalone 500. For that, medicine will need to re-engineer the most fundamentalstructuresandprocessesof thehumanbody,anddiscoverhow to regenerateorgansandtissues.Itisbynomeansclearthatwecandothatby2100.Nevertheless,everyfailedattempttoovercomedeathwillgetusastepcloser

tothetarget,andthatwillinspiregreaterhopesandencouragepeopletomakeevengreaterefforts.ThoughGoogle’sCalicoprobablywon’tsolvedeathintimetomakeGoogleco-foundersSergeyBrinandLarryPageimmortal, itwillmostprobablymakesignificantdiscoveriesaboutcellbiology,geneticmedicinesandhumanhealth.ThenextgenerationofGooglerscouldthereforestarttheirattackondeathfromnewandbetterpositions.Thescientistswhocry immortalityareliketheboywhocriedwolf:soonerorlater,thewolfactuallycomes.Hence even if we don’t achieve immortality in our lifetime, the war against

death is still likely tobe the flagshipproject of the comingcentury.When youtakeintoaccountourbeliefinthesanctityofhumanlife,addthedynamicsofthescientificestablishment,andtopitallwiththeneedsofthecapitalisteconomy,arelentless war against death seems to be inevitable. Our ideologicalcommitmenttohumanlifewillneverallowussimplytoaccepthumandeath.Aslongaspeopledieofsomething,wewillstrivetoovercomeit.The scientific establishment and the capitalist economy will be more than

happytounderwritethisstruggle.Mostscientistsandbankersdon’tcarewhatthey are working on, provided it gives them an opportunity to make newdiscoveriesandgreaterprofits.Cananyone imagineamoreexcitingscientificchallengethanoutsmartingdeath–oramorepromisingmarketthanthemarketofeternal youth? If youareover forty, closeyoureyes foraminuteand try torememberthebodyyouhadattwenty-five.Notonlyhowitlooked,butaboveallhowitfelt.Ifyoucouldhavethatbodyback,howmuchwouldyoubewillingtopayforit?Nodoubtsomepeoplewouldbehappytoforgotheopportunity,butenoughcustomerswouldpaywhatever it takes,constitutingawell-nighinfinitemarket.Ifall that isnotenough,thefearofdeathingrainedinmosthumanswillgive

thewar against death an irresistiblemomentum. As long as people assumedthatdeathis inevitable,theytrainedthemselvesfromanearlyagetosuppressthedesire to live forever,orharnessed it in favourofsubstitutegoals.Peoplewant to live forever,so theycomposean ‘immortal’ symphony, theystrive for‘eternal glory’ in somewar, or even sacrifice their lives so that their soulswill‘enjoy everlasting bliss in paradise’. A large part of our artistic creativity, ourpoliticalcommitmentandourreligiouspietyisfuelledbythefearofdeath.WoodyAllen,whohasmadeafabulouscareeroutof thefearofdeath,was

once asked if he hoped to live on for ever through the silver screen. Allenansweredthat‘I’dratherliveoninmyapartment.’Hewentontoaddthat‘Idon’twanttoachieveimmortalitythroughmywork.Iwanttoachieveitbynotdying.’Eternalglory,nationalistremembranceceremoniesanddreamsofparadiseareverypoorsubstitutesforwhathumans likeAllenreallywant–not todie.Oncepeople think (withorwithoutgood reason) that theyhaveaseriouschanceofescapingdeath,thedesireforlifewillrefusetogoonpullingthericketywagonofart,ideologyandreligion,andwillsweepforwardlikeanavalanche.If you think that religious fanaticswithburningeyesand flowingbeardsare

ruthless, just wait and see what elderly retail moguls and ageing Hollywoodstarlets will do when they think the elixir of life is within reach. If and whensciencemakessignificantprogressinthewaragainstdeath,therealbattlewillshiftfromthelaboratoriestotheparliaments,courthousesandstreets.Oncethescientific efforts are crowned with success, they will trigger bitter politicalconflicts. All the wars and conflicts of historymight turn out to be but a palepreludefortherealstruggleaheadofus:thestruggleforeternalyouth.

TheRighttoHappinessThesecondbigprojectonthehumanagendawillprobablybetofindthekeytohappiness.Throughouthistorynumerousthinkers,prophetsandordinarypeopledefinedhappinessratherthanlifeitselfasthesupremegood.InancientGreecethe philosopher Epicurus explained thatworshipping gods is awaste of time,thatthereisnoexistenceafterdeath,andthathappinessisthesolepurposeoflife. Most people in ancient times rejected Epicureanism, but today it hasbecome the default view. Scepticism about the afterlife drives humankind toseeknotonlyimmortality,butalsoearthlyhappiness.Forwhowouldliketoliveforeverineternalmisery?ForEpicurusthepursuitofhappinesswasapersonalquest.Modernthinkers,

incontrast,tendtoseeitasacollectiveproject.Withoutgovernmentplanning,economic resourcesandscientific research, individualswill notget far in theirquest for happiness. If your country is torn apart bywar, if the economy is incrisisandifhealthcareisnon-existent,youarelikelytobemiserable.AttheendoftheeighteenthcenturytheBritishphilosopherJeremyBenthamdeclaredthatthe supreme good is ‘the greatest happiness of the greatest number’, andconcluded that the soleworthy aim of the state, themarket and the scientificcommunity is to increase global happiness. Politicians should make peace,businesspeopleshouldfosterprosperityandscholarsshouldstudynature,not

forthegreatergloryofking,countryorGod–butsothatyouandIcouldenjoyahappierlife.Duringthenineteenthandtwentiethcenturies,althoughmanypaidlipservice

to Bentham’s vision, governments, corporations and laboratories focused onmore immediate andwell-defined aims. Countriesmeasured their success bythesizeoftheirterritory,theincreaseintheirpopulationandthegrowthoftheirGDP – not by the happiness of their citizens. Industrialised nations such asGermany,FranceandJapanestablishedgiganticsystemsofeducation,healthandwelfare,yetthesesystemswereaimedtostrengthenthenationratherthanensureindividualwell-being.Schools were founded to produce skilful and obedient citizens who would

servethenationloyally.Ateighteen,youthsneededtobenotonlypatrioticbutalsoliterate,sothattheycouldreadthebrigadier’sorderofthedayanddrawuptomorrow’sbattleplans.Theyhadtoknowmathematicsinordertocalculatetheshell’strajectoryorcracktheenemy’ssecretcode.Theyneededareasonablecommand of electrics, mechanics and medicine, in order to operate wirelesssets,drivetanksandtakecareofwoundedcomrades.Whentheyleftthearmythey were expected to serve the nation as clerks, teachers and engineers,buildingamoderneconomyandpayinglotsoftaxes.The samewent for the health system.At the end of the nineteenth century

countriessuchasFrance,GermanyandJapanbeganprovidingfreehealthcarefor the masses. They financed vaccinations for infants, balanced diets forchildrenandphysicaleducationforteenagers.Theydrainedfesteringswamps,exterminatedmosquitoesandbuiltcentralisedsewagesystems.Theaimwasn’ttomake people happy, but tomake the nation stronger. The country neededsturdy soldiers and workers, healthy women who would give birth to moresoldiersandworkers,andbureaucratswhocame to theofficepunctuallyat8a.m.insteadoflyingsickathome.Even thewelfare systemwasoriginally planned in the interest of thenation

rather than of needy individuals. When Otto von Bismarck pioneered statepensionsandsocialsecurity in latenineteenth-centuryGermany,hischiefaimwastoensuretheloyaltyofthecitizensratherthantoincreasetheirwell-being.Youfoughtforyourcountrywhenyouwereeighteen,andpaidyourtaxeswhenyouwereforty,becauseyoucountedonthestatetotakecareofyouwhenyouwereseventy.30In1776theFoundingFathersoftheUnitedStatesestablishedtherighttothe

pursuit of happiness as one of three unalienable human rights, alongside theright to life and the right to liberty. It’s important to note, however, that theAmerican Declaration of Independence guaranteed the right to the pursuit of

happiness,nottherighttohappinessitself.Crucially,ThomasJeffersondidnotmakethestateresponsibleforitscitizens’happiness.Rather,hesoughtonlytolimit the power of the state. The ideawas to reserve for individuals a privatesphereofchoice, free fromstatesupervision. If I think I’llbehappiermarryingJohnrather thanMary, living inSanFrancisco rather thanSaltLakeCity,andworkingasabartender rather thanadairy farmer, then it’smyright topursuehappinessmyway,andthestateshouldn’t interveneeven if Imakethewrongchoice.Yetover the last fewdecadesthetableshaveturned,andBentham’svision

hasbeentakenfarmoreseriously.Peopleincreasinglybelievethattheimmensesystemsestablishedmore thana century ago to strengthen the nation shouldactually serve the happiness andwell-being of individual citizens.We are nothere to serve the state – it is here to serve us. The right to the pursuit ofhappiness,originallyenvisagedasarestraintonstatepower,hasimperceptiblymorphedintotherighttohappiness–asifhumanbeingshaveanaturalrighttobehappy,andanythingwhichmakesusdissatisfied isaviolationofourbasichumanrights,sothestateshoulddosomethingaboutit.InthetwentiethcenturypercapitaGDPwasperhapsthesupremeyardstick

for evaluating national success. From this perspective, Singapore, each ofwhose citizens produces on average $56,000worth of goods and services ayear,isamoresuccessfulcountrythanCostaRica,whosecitizensproduceonly$14,000 a year. But nowadays thinkers, politicians and even economists arecalling to supplement or even replace GDP with GDH – gross domestichappiness.After all,whatdopeoplewant?Theydon’twant toproduce.Theywanttobehappy.Productionisimportantbecauseitprovidesthematerialbasisforhappiness.Butitisonlythemeans,nottheend.InonesurveyafteranotherCosta Ricans report far higher levels of life satisfaction than Singaporeans.WouldyouratherbeahighlyproductivebutdissatisfiedSingaporean,oralessproductivebutsatisfiedCostaRican?Thiskindoflogicmightdrivehumankindtomakehappinessitssecondmain

goalforthetwenty-firstcentury.Atfirstglancethismightseemarelativelyeasyproject. If famine,plagueandwararedisappearing, ifhumankindexperiencesunprecedented peace and prosperity, and if life expectancy increasesdramatically,surelyallthatwillmakehumanshappy,right?Wrong.WhenEpicurusdefinedhappinessasthesupremegood,hewarned

hisdisciples that it ishardworktobehappy.Materialachievementsalonewillnotsatisfyusforlong.Indeed,theblindpursuitofmoney,fameandpleasurewillonlymakeusmiserable.Epicurusrecommended,forexample,toeatanddrinkin moderation, and to curb one’s sexual appetites. In the long run, a deep

friendshipwillmakeusmorecontentthanafrenziedorgy.Epicurusoutlinedanentire ethic of dos and don’ts to guide people along the treacherous path tohappiness.Epicuruswasapparentlyon to something.Beinghappydoesn’t comeeasy.

Despiteourunprecedentedachievementsinthelastfewdecades,itisfarfromobvious that contemporary people are significantly more satisfied than theirancestors in bygone years. Indeed, it is an ominous sign that despite higherprosperity, comfort and security, the rate of suicide in the developedworld isalsomuchhigherthanintraditionalsocieties.In Peru, Guatemala, the Philippines and Albania – developing countries

suffering from poverty and political instability – about one person in 100,000commitssuicideeachyear.InrichandpeacefulcountriessuchasSwitzerland,France,JapanandNewZealand,twenty-fivepeopleper100,000taketheirownlives annually. In 1985 most South Koreans were poor, uneducated andtradition-bound,livingunderanauthoritariandictatorship.TodaySouthKoreaisa leading economic power, its citizens are among the best educated in theworld,and itenjoysastableandcomparatively liberaldemocratic regime.Yetwhereas in 1985 about nine South Koreans per 100,000 killed themselves,todaytheannualrateofsuicidehasmorethantripledtothirtyper100,000.31There are of course opposite and far more encouraging trends. Thus the

drastic decrease in child mortality has surely brought an increase in humanhappiness,andpartiallycompensatedpeopleforthestressofmodernlife.Still,even ifwearesomewhathappier thanourancestors, the increase inourwell-being is far less thanwemighthaveexpected. In theStoneAge, theaveragehumanhadathisorherdisposalabout4,000caloriesofenergyperday.Thisincludednotonlyfood,butalsotheenergyinvestedinpreparingtools,clothing,artandcampfires.TodayAmericansuseonaverage228,000caloriesofenergyper person per day, to feed not only their stomachs but also their cars,computers, refrigerators and televisions.32 The average American thus usessixty times more energy than the average Stone Age hunter-gatherer. Is theaverageAmerican sixty times happier?Wemaywell be sceptical about suchrosyviews.And even if we have overcome many of yesterday’s miseries, attaining

positivehappinessmaybefarmoredifficultthanabolishingdownrightsuffering.Ittookjustapieceofbreadtomakeastarvingmedievalpeasantjoyful.Howdoyoubringjoytoabored,overpaidandoverweightengineer?Thesecondhalfofthe twentieth century was a golden age for the USA. Victory in the SecondWorldWar,followedbyanevenmoredecisivevictoryintheColdWar,turneditinto the leading global superpower. Between 1950 and 2000 American GDP

grewfrom$2trillionto$12trillion.Realpercapita incomedoubled.Thenewlyinvented contraceptive pill made sex freer than ever. Women, gays, AfricanAmericansandotherminoritiesfinallygotabiggersliceoftheAmericanpie.Aflood of cheap cars, refrigerators, air conditioners, vacuum cleaners,dishwashers, laundry machines, telephones, televisions and computerschanged daily life almost beyond recognition. Yet studies have shown thatAmericansubjectivewell-beinglevels inthe1990sremainedroughlythesameastheywereinthe1950s.33In Japan, average real income rose by a factor of five between 1958 and

1987,inoneofthefastesteconomicboomsofhistory.Thisavalancheofwealth,coupledwithmyriadpositiveandnegativechanges inJapanese lifestylesandsocialrelations,hadsurprisinglylittleimpactonJapanesesubjectivewell-beinglevels.TheJapaneseinthe1990swereassatisfied–ordissatisfied–astheywereinthe1950s.34It appears that our happiness bangs against somemysterious glass ceiling

thatdoesnotallow it togrowdespiteallourunprecedentedaccomplishments.Evenifweprovidefreefoodforeverybody,curealldiseasesandensureworldpeace,itwon’tnecessarilyshatterthatglassceiling.Achievingrealhappinessisnotgoingtobemucheasierthanovercomingoldageanddeath.The glass ceiling of happiness is held in place by two stout pillars, one

psychological, the other biological. On the psychological level, happinessdepends on expectations rather than objective conditions. We don’t becomesatisfiedby leadingapeacefulandprosperousexistence.Rather,webecomesatisfied when reality matches our expectations. The bad news is that asconditionsimprove,expectationsballoon.Dramaticimprovementsinconditions,as humankind has experienced in recent decades, translate into greaterexpectations rather than greater contentment. Ifwedon’t do something aboutthis,ourfutureachievementstoomightleaveusasdissatisfiedasever.On the biological level, both our expectations and our happiness are

determinedbyourbiochemistry,ratherthanbyoureconomic,socialorpoliticalsituation. According to Epicurus, we are happy when we feel pleasantsensations and are free from unpleasant ones. Jeremy Bentham similarlymaintainedthatnaturegavedominionovermantotwomasters–pleasureandpain – and they alone determine everythingwe do, say and think. Bentham’ssuccessor, JohnStuartMill, explained that happiness is nothing but pleasureandfreedomfrompain,andthatbeyondpleasureandpainthereisnogoodandnoevil.Anyonewhotriestodeducegoodandevilfromsomethingelse(suchasthe word of God, or the national interest) is fooling you, and perhaps foolinghimselftoo.35

InthedaysofEpicurussuchtalkwasblasphemous.InthedaysofBenthamandMill it was radical subversion. But in the early twenty-first century this isscientificorthodoxy.Accordingtothelifesciences,happinessandsufferingarenothingbutdifferentbalancesofbodilysensations.Weneverreacttoeventsinthe outside world, but only to sensations in our own bodies. Nobody suffersbecauseshelostherjob,becauseshegotdivorcedorbecausethegovernmentwent to war. The only thing that makes people miserable is unpleasantsensations in their own bodies. Losing one’s job can certainly triggerdepression, but depression itself is a kind of unpleasant bodily sensation. Athousand thingsmaymake us angry, but anger is never an abstraction. It isalwaysfeltasasensationofheatandtensioninthebody,whichiswhatmakesangersoinfuriating.Notfornothingdowesaythatwe‘burn’withanger.Conversely, science says that nobody is ever made happy by getting a

promotion,winningthelotteryorevenfindingtruelove.Peoplearemadehappybyone thingandone thingonly–pleasantsensations in theirbodies. ImaginethatyouareMarioGötze,theattackingmidfielderoftheGermanfootballteaminthe2014WorldCupFinalagainstArgentina;113minuteshavealreadyelapsed,without a goal being scored. Only seven minutes remain before the dreadedpenaltyshoot-out.Some75,000excited fans fill theMaracanãstadium inRio,with countless millions anxiously watching all over the world. You are a fewmetres from the Argentinian goal when André Schürrle sends a magnificentpassinyourdirection.Youstoptheballwithyourchest,itdropsdowntowardsyour leg, you give it a kick inmid-air, and you see it fly past the Argentiniangoalkeeperandburyitselfdeepinsidethenet.Goooooooal!Thestadiumeruptslikeavolcano.Tensofthousandsofpeopleroarlikemad,yourteammatesareracingtohugandkissyou,millionsofpeoplebackhomeinBerlinandMunichcollapseintearsbeforethetelevisionscreen.Youareecstatic,butnotbecauseof the ball in the Argentinian net or the celebrations going on in crammedBavarianBiergartens.Youareactuallyreactingtothestormofsensationswithinyou. Chills run up and down your spine, waves of electricity wash over yourbody,anditfeelsasifyouaredissolvingintomillionsofexplodingenergyballs.Youdon’thavetoscorethewinninggoalintheWorldCupFinaltofeelsuch

sensations.Ifyoureceiveanunexpectedpromotionatwork,andstart jumpingfor joy, you are reacting to the same kind of sensations. The deeper parts ofyour mind know nothing about football or about jobs. They know onlysensations.Ifyougetapromotion,butforsomereasondon’tfeelanypleasantsensations–youwillnotfeelsatisfied.Theoppositeisalsotrue.Ifyouhavejustbeen fired (or lost a decisive football match), but you are experiencing verypleasant sensations (perhaps because you popped some pill), youmight still

feelontopoftheworld.Thebadnewsisthatpleasantsensationsquicklysubsideandsoonerorlater

turnintounpleasantones.EvenscoringthewinninggoalintheWorldCupFinaldoesn’t guarantee lifelong bliss. In fact, it might all be downhill from there.Similarly,iflastyearIreceivedanunexpectedpromotionatwork,Imightstillbeoccupyingthatnewposition,buttheverypleasantsensationsIexperiencedonhearing the news disappeared within hours. If I want to feel those wonderfulsensationsagain,Imustgetanotherpromotion.Andanother.AndifIdon’tgetapromotion, Imight end up farmore bitter and angry than if I had remained ahumblepawn.This is all the fault of evolution. For countless generations our biochemical

systemadaptedtoincreasingourchancesofsurvivalandreproduction,notourhappiness.Thebiochemicalsystemrewardsactionsconducivetosurvivalandreproductionwithpleasant sensations.But theseareonlyanephemeral salesgimmick. We struggle to get food and mates in order to avoid unpleasantsensationsofhungerandtoenjoypleasingtastesandblissfulorgasms.Butnicetastes and blissful orgasms don’t last very long, and if we want to feel themagainwehavetogooutlookingformorefoodandmates.What might have happened if a rare mutation had created a squirrel who,

aftereatingasinglenut,enjoysaneverlastingsensationofbliss?Technically,thiscouldactuallybedonebyrewiringthesquirrel’sbrain.Whoknows,perhapsit really happened to some lucky squirrelmillions of years ago.But if so, thatsquirrelenjoyedanextremelyhappyandextremelyshort life,andthatwastheendoftheraremutation.Fortheblissfulsquirrelwouldnothavebotheredtolookformore nuts, let alonemates. The rival squirrels, who felt hungry again fiveminutesaftereatinganut,hadmuchbetterchancesof survivingandpassingtheir genes to the next generation. For exactly the same reason, the nutswehumans seek to gather – lucrative jobs, big houses, good-looking partners –seldomsatisfyusforlong.Somemaysaythatthisisnotsobad,becauseitisn’tthegoalthatmakesus

happy – it’s the journey. Climbing Mount Everest is more satisfying thanstanding at the top; flirting and foreplay are more exciting than having anorgasm; and conducting groundbreaking lab experiments is more interestingthan receiving praise and prizes. Yet this hardly changes the picture. It justindicatesthatevolutioncontrolsuswithabroadrangeofpleasures.Sometimesitseducesuswithsensationsofblissandtranquillity,whileonotheroccasionsitgoadsusforwardwiththrillingsensationsofelationandexcitement.Whenananimalislookingforsomethingthatincreasesitschancesofsurvival

and reproduction (e.g. food, partners or social status), the brain produces

sensations of alertness and excitement,which drive the animal tomake evengreater efforts because they are so very agreeable. In a famous experimentscientists connected electrodes to the brains of several rats, enabling theanimals to create sensationsof excitement simplybypressingapedal.Whenthe ratsweregivenachoicebetween tasty foodandpressing thepedal, theypreferred thepedal (much likekidspreferring toplayvideogamesrather thancomedown todinner).The ratspressed thepedalagainandagain,until theycollapsedfromhungerandexhaustion.36Humanstoomayprefertheexcitementof the race to resting on the laurels of success. Yetwhatmakes the race soattractiveistheexhilaratingsensationsthatgoalongwithit.Nobodywouldhavewanted to climb mountains, play video games or go on blind dates if suchactivitieswereaccompaniedsolelybyunpleasantsensationsofstress,despairorboredom.37Alas, the exciting sensations of the race are as transient as the blissful

sensationsofvictory.TheDonJuanenjoyingthethrillofaone-nightstand,thebusinessman enjoying biting his fingernailswatching theDow Jones rise andfall,andthegamerenjoyingkillingmonstersonthecomputerscreenwillfindnosatisfaction remembering yesterday’s adventures. Like the rats pressing thepedal againandagain, theDonJuans, business tycoonsandgamersneedanewkickeveryday.Worsestill,heretooexpectationsadapttoconditions,andyesterday’schallengesalltooquicklybecometoday’stedium.Perhapsthekeyto happiness is neither the race nor the goldmedal, but rather combining therightdosesofexcitementandtranquillity;butmostofustendtojumpallthewayfromstress toboredomandback, remainingasdiscontentedwithoneaswiththeother.If science is right and our happiness is determined by our biochemical

system, then the only way to ensure lasting contentment is by rigging thissystem. Forget economic growth, social reforms and political revolutions: inorder to raise global happiness levels, we need to manipulate humanbiochemistry.And this is exactlywhatwehavebegundoingover the last fewdecades.Fiftyyearsagopsychiatricdrugscarriedaseverestigma.Today,thatstigma has been broken. For better or worse, a growing percentage of thepopulation is takingpsychiatricmedicinesona regularbasis, not only to curedebilitatingmental illnesses, but also to facemoremundanedepressions andtheoccasionalblues.For example, increasingnumbersof schoolchildren take stimulants suchas

Ritalin. In 2011, 3.5 million American children were taking medications forADHD(attentiondeficithyperactivitydisorder).IntheUKthenumberrosefrom92,000 in 1997 to 786,000 in 2012.38 The original aim had been to treat

attentiondisorders,buttodaycompletelyhealthykidstakesuchmedicationstoimprove theirperformanceand liveup to thegrowingexpectationsof teachersandparents.39Manyobjecttothisdevelopmentandarguethattheproblemlieswith the education system rather than with the children. If pupils suffer fromattentiondisorders,stressandlowgrades,perhapsweoughttoblameoutdatedteachingmethods, overcrowded classrooms and an unnaturally fast tempo oflife.Maybeweshouldmodifytheschoolsratherthanthekids?Itisinterestingtosee how the arguments have evolved. People have been quarrelling abouteducation methods for thousands of years. Whether in ancient China orVictorianBritain,everybodyhadhisorherpetmethod,andvehementlyopposedall alternatives. Yet hitherto everybody still agreed on one thing: in order toimproveeducation,weneedtochangetheschools.Today, for thefirst time inhistory, at least some people think it would be more efficient to change thepupils’biochemistry.40Armiesareheading thesameway:12percentofAmericansoldiers in Iraq

and17percentofAmericansoldiersinAfghanistantookeithersleepingpillsorantidepressantstohelpthemdealwiththepressureanddistressofwar.Fear,depression and trauma are not caused by shells, booby traps or car bombs.They are caused by hormones, neurotransmitters and neural networks. Twosoldiersmayfindthemselvesshouldertoshoulderinthesameambush;onewillfreeze in terror, lose his wits and suffer from nightmares for years after theevent; the other will charge forward courageously and win a medal. Thedifferenceisinthesoldiers’biochemistry,andifwefindwaystocontrolitwewillatonestrokeproducebothhappiersoldiersandmoreefficientarmies.41Thebiochemicalpursuitofhappinessisalsothenumberonecauseofcrime

intheworld.In2009halfoftheinmatesinUSfederalprisonsgottherebecauseof drugs; 38 per cent of Italian prisoners were convicted of drug-relatedoffences; 55per cent of inmates in theUK reported that they committed theircrimes in connection with either consuming or trading drugs. A 2001 reportfoundthat62percentofAustralianconvictswereundertheinfluenceofdrugswhen committing the crime for which they were incarcerated.42 People drinkalcohol to forget, they smoke pot to feel peaceful, they take cocaine andmethamphetamines to be sharp and confident, whereas Ecstasy providesecstaticsensationsandLSDsendsyoutomeetLucyintheSkywithDiamonds.Whatsomepeoplehopetogetbystudying,workingorraisingafamily,otherstry toobtain farmoreeasily through the rightdosageofmolecules.This isanexistentialthreattothesocialandeconomicorder,whichiswhycountrieswageastubborn,bloodyandhopelesswaronbiochemicalcrime.

Thestatehopestoregulatethebiochemicalpursuitofhappiness,separating‘bad’ manipulations from ‘good’ ones. The principle is clear: biochemicalmanipulations that strengthen political stability, social order and economicgrowthareallowedandevenencouraged(e.g.thosethatcalmhyperactivekidsin school, or drive anxious soldiers forward into battle). Manipulations thatthreatenstabilityandgrowtharebanned.Buteachyearnewdrugsareborninthe research labs of universities, pharmaceutical companies and criminalorganisations,andtheneedsofthestateandthemarketalsokeepchanging.Asthe biochemical pursuit of happiness accelerates, so it will reshape politics,societyandeconomics,anditwillbecomeeverhardertobringitundercontrol.And drugs are just the beginning. In research labs experts are already

workingonmoresophisticatedwaysofmanipulatinghumanbiochemistry,suchas sending direct electrical stimuli to appropriate spots in the brain, orgenetically engineering the blueprints of our bodies. No matter the exactmethod,gaininghappinessthroughbiologicalmanipulationwon’tbeeasy,foritrequires altering the fundamental patterns of life. But then it wasn’t easy toovercomefamine,plagueandwareither.

It is far from certain that humankind should invest so much effort in thebiochemicalpursuitofhappiness.Somewouldarguethathappinesssimplyisn’timportant enough, and that it ismisguided to regard individual satisfaction asthehighestaimofhumansociety.Othersmayagree thathappiness is indeedthe supreme good, yet would take issue with the biological definition ofhappinessastheexperienceofpleasantsensations.Some2,300yearsagoEpicuruswarnedhisdisciplesthatimmoderatepursuit

of pleasure is likely to make them miserable rather than happy. A couple ofcenturiesearlierBuddhahadmadeanevenmore radical claim, teaching thatthe pursuit of pleasant sensations is in fact the very root of suffering. Suchsensations are just ephemeral and meaningless vibrations. Even when weexperiencethem,wedon’treacttothemwithcontentment;rather,wejustcravefor more. Hence no matter how many blissful or exciting sensations I mayexperience,theywillneversatisfyme.If I identify happiness with fleeting pleasant sensations, and crave to

experience more and more of them, I have no choice but to pursue themconstantly.When I finally get them, they quickly disappear, and because themerememoryofpastpleasureswillnotsatisfyme,Ihavetostartalloveragain.Even if I continue this pursuit for decades, it will never bring me any lastingachievement;on thecontrary, themore Icrave thesepleasantsensations, themorestressedanddissatisfiedIwillbecome.Toattainrealhappiness,humans

needtoslowdownthepursuitofpleasantsensations,notaccelerateit.ThisBuddhist viewof happiness has a lot in commonwith thebiochemical

view.Bothagreethatpleasantsensationsdisappearasfastastheyarise,andthataslongaspeoplecravepleasantsensationswithoutactuallyexperiencingthem, they remain dissatisfied. However, this problem has two very differentsolutions.Thebiochemicalsolution is todevelopproductsand treatments thatwillprovidehumanswithanunendingstreamofpleasantsensations,sowewillneverbewithoutthem.TheBuddha’ssuggestionwastoreduceourcravingforpleasant sensations, and not allow them to control our lives. According toBuddha, we can train our minds to observe carefully how all sensationsconstantlyariseandpass.Whenthemindlearnstoseeoursensationsforwhattheyare–ephemeralandmeaninglessvibrations–weloseinterestinpursuingthem.Forwhatisthepointofrunningaftersomethingthatdisappearsasfastasitarises?Atpresent,humankindhasfargreaterinterestinthebiochemicalsolution.No

matter what monks in their Himalayan caves or philosophers in their ivorytowers say, for the capitalist juggernaut, happiness is pleasure. Period. Witheachpassingyearourtoleranceforunpleasantsensationsdecreases,andourcraving for pleasant sensations increases. Both scientific research andeconomicactivityaregearedtothatend,eachyearproducingbetterpainkillers,new ice-cream flavours, more comfortable mattresses, and more addictivegames foroursmartphones,so thatwewillnotsufferasingleboringmomentwhilewaitingforthebus.Allthisishardlyenough,ofcourse.SinceHomosapienswasnotadaptedby

evolution to experience constant pleasure, if that is what humankindnevertheless wants, ice cream and smartphone games will not do. It will benecessary to changeourbiochemistryand re-engineerourbodiesandminds.Soweareworking on that.Youmaydebatewhether it is goodor bad, but itseemsthatthesecondgreatprojectofthetwenty-firstcentury–toensureglobalhappiness – will involve re-engineering Homo sapiens so that it can enjoyeverlastingpleasure.

TheGodsofPlanetEarthInseekingblissandimmortalityhumansareinfacttryingtoupgradethemselvesintogods.Not justbecause thesearedivinequalities,butbecause inorder toovercomeoldageandmiseryhumanswillfirsthavetoacquiregodlikecontroloftheir own biological substratum. If we ever have the power to engineer death

and pain out of our system, that same power will probably be sufficient toengineeroursysteminalmostanymannerwelike,andmanipulateourorgans,emotions and intelligence in myriad ways. You could buy for yourself thestrengthofHercules, thesensualityofAphrodite, thewisdomofAthenaor themadnessofDionysusifthat iswhatyouareinto.Uptillnowincreasinghumanpower reliedmainly on upgrading our external tools. In the future it may relymoreonupgrading thehumanbodyandmind,oronmergingdirectlywithourtools.Theupgradingofhumansintogodsmayfollowanyofthreepaths:biological

engineering,cyborgengineeringandtheengineeringofnon-organicbeings.Biologicalengineeringstartswiththeinsightthatwearefarfromrealisingthe

full potential of organic bodies. For 4 billion years natural selection has beentweakingandtinkeringwiththesebodies,sothatwehavegonefromamoebatoreptilestomammalstoSapiens.YetthereisnoreasontothinkthatSapiensisthelaststation.Relativelysmallchangesingenes,hormonesandneuronswereenough to transform Homo erectus – who could produce nothing moreimpressivethanflintknives–intoHomosapiens,whoproducesspaceshipsandcomputers.Whoknowswhatmightbe theoutcomeofa fewmorechanges toourDNA,hormonalsystemorbrainstructure.Bioengineeringisnotgoingtowaitpatiently fornaturalselection towork itsmagic. Instead,bioengineerswill taketheoldSapiensbody,andintentionallyrewriteitsgeneticcode,rewireitsbraincircuits,alter itsbiochemicalbalance,andevengrowentirelynew limbs.Theywilltherebycreatenewgodlings,whomightbeasdifferentfromusSapiensaswearedifferentfromHomoerectus.Cyborgengineeringwillgoastepfurther,mergingtheorganicbodywithnon-

organicdevicessuchasbionichands,artificialeyes,ormillionsofnano-robotsthatwillnavigateourbloodstream,diagnoseproblemsandrepairdamage.Sucha cyborg could enjoy abilities far beyond those of any organic body. Forexample,allpartsofanorganicbodymustbeindirectcontactwithoneanotherinordertofunction.Ifanelephant’sbrainisinIndia,itseyesandearsinChinaanditsfeetinAustralia,thenthiselephantismostprobablydead,andevenifitis in some mysterious sense alive, it cannot see, hear or walk. A cyborg, incontrast, could exist in numerous places at the same time. A cyborg doctorcouldperformemergencysurgeriesinTokyo,inChicagoandinaspacestationonMars,without ever leaving herStockholm office. Shewill need only a fastInternet connection, and a few pairs of bionic eyes and hands. On secondthoughts, why pairs? Why not quartets? Indeed, even those are actuallysuperfluous. Why should a cyborg doctor hold a surgeon’s scalpel by hand,whenshecouldconnectherminddirectlytotheinstrument?

Thismaysound likescience fiction,but it’salreadya reality.Monkeyshaverecentlylearnedtocontrolbionichandsandfeetdisconnectedfromtheirbodies,through electrodes implanted in their brains. Paralysed patients are able tomovebionic limbsoroperatecomputersby thepowerof thoughtalone. If youwish, you can already remote-control electric devices in your house using anelectric ‘mind-reading’ helmet. The helmet requires no brain implants. Itfunctionsbyreadingtheelectricsignalspassingthroughyourscalp.Ifyouwantto turn on the light in the kitchen, you just wear the helmet, imagine somepreprogrammed mental sign (e.g. imagine your right hand moving), and theswitchturnson.Youcanbuysuchhelmetsonlineforamere$400.43In early 2015 several hundred workers in the Epicenter high-tech hub in

Stockholmhadmicrochips implanted intotheirhands.Thechipsareaboutthesizeofagrainof riceandstorepersonalisedsecurity information thatenablesworkers to open doors and operate photocopiers with a wave of their hand.Soontheyhopetomakepaymentsinthesameway.Oneofthepeoplebehindthe initiative, Hannes Sjoblad, explained that ‘We already interact withtechnology all the time. Today it’s a bit messy: we need pin codes andpasswords.Wouldn’titbeeasytojusttouchwithyourhand?’44Yet even cyborg engineering is relatively conservative, inasmuch as it

assumesthatorganicbrainswillgoonbeingthecommand-and-controlcentresoflife.Abolderapproachdispenseswithorganicpartsaltogether,andhopestoengineer completely non-organic beings. Neural networks will be replaced byintelligentsoftware,whichcouldsurfboththevirtualandnon-virtualworlds,freefromthelimitationsoforganicchemistry.After4billionyearsofwanderinginsidethekingdomoforganiccompounds, lifewillbreakout into thevastnessof theinorganic realm, and will take shapes that we cannot envision even in ourwildest dreams. After all, our wildest dreams are still the product of organicchemistry.

We don’t know where these paths might lead us, nor what our godlikedescendants will look like. Foretelling the future was never easy, andrevolutionary biotechnologies make it even harder. For as difficult as it is topredict the impact of new technologies in fields like transportation,communication and energy, technologies for upgrading humans pose acompletely different kind of challenge. Since they can be used to transformhumanminds anddesires, people possessingpresent-dayminds anddesiresbydefinitioncannotfathomtheirimplications.Forthousandsofyearshistorywasfulloftechnological,economic,socialand

politicalupheavals.Yetonethingremainedconstant:humanity itself.Ourtools

and institutions are very different from those of biblical times, but the deepstructures of the humanmind remain the same. This is why we can still findourselvesbetweenthepagesoftheBible,inthewritingsofConfuciusorwithinthe tragedies of Sophocles and Euripides. These classics were created byhumans just like us, hencewe feel that they talk about us. Inmodern theatreproductions, Oedipus, Hamlet and Othello may wear jeans and T-shirts andhaveFacebookaccounts, but their emotional conflicts are the sameas in theoriginalplay.However, once technology enables us to re-engineer human minds,Homo

sapienswilldisappear,humanhistorywillcometoanendandacompletelynewkindofprocesswillbegin,whichpeople likeyouandmecannotcomprehend.Manyscholars try topredicthow theworldwill look in theyear2100or2200.This is awaste of time.Anyworthwhile predictionmust take into account theabilitytore-engineerhumanminds,andthisisimpossible.Therearemanywiseanswers to the question, ‘What would people with minds like ours do withbiotechnology?’ Yet there are no good answers to the question, ‘What wouldbeingswithadifferent kindofminddowithbiotechnology?’Allwecan say isthatpeoplesimilartousarelikelytousebiotechnologytore-engineertheirownminds,andourpresent-daymindscannotgraspwhatmighthappennext.Thoughthedetailsarethereforeobscure,wecanneverthelessbesureabout

thegeneraldirectionofhistory.Inthetwenty-firstcentury,thethirdbigprojectofhumankindwillbe toacquire forusdivinepowersofcreationanddestruction,and upgrade Homo sapiens into Homo deus. This third project obviouslysubsumesthefirsttwoprojects,andisfuelledbythem.Wewanttheabilitytore-engineerourbodiesandmindsinorder,aboveall,toescapeoldage,deathandmisery, but once we have it, who knows what else we might do with suchability?Sowemaywell thinkof thenewhumanagendaasconsistingreallyofonlyoneproject(withmanybranches):attainingdivinity.If thissoundsunscientificordownrighteccentric, it isbecausepeopleoften

misunderstand the meaning of divinity. Divinity isn’t a vague metaphysicalquality. And it isn’t the same as omnipotence. When speaking of upgradinghumansintogods,thinkmoreintermsofGreekgodsorHindudevasratherthantheomnipotentbiblicalskyfather.Ourdescendantswouldstillhavetheirfoibles,kinks and limitations, just as Zeus and Indra had theirs. But they could love,hate,createanddestroyonamuchgranderscalethanus.Throughout history most gods were believed to enjoy not omnipotence but

rather specific super-abilities such as the ability to design and create livingbeings; to transform their own bodies; to control the environment and theweather;toreadmindsandtocommunicateatadistance;totravelatveryhigh

speeds;andofcoursetoescapedeathandliveindefinitely.Humansareinthebusiness of acquiring all these abilities, and then some. Certain traditionalabilities thatwereconsidereddivineformanymillenniahavetodaybecomesocommonplacethatwehardlythinkaboutthem.TheaveragepersonnowmovesandcommunicatesacrossdistancesmuchmoreeasilythantheGreek,HinduorAfrican