2018 Q3 STOWE AREA MARKET REPORT

C O L D W E L L B A N K E R C A R L S O N R E A L E S T A T E

MEG KAUFFMAN MEGKAUFFMAN@CARLSONREALESTATESTOWE.COM (802) 318-6034

After a long, beautiful, and busy summer, we’ve quickly transitioned to autumn.  The real estate market remains strong with continued high buyer demand. Low inventory continues to be the predominant theme, and over the last nine months, new listings being entered into MLS hit a 3 year low. This has caused many buyers to compete with others for a scarcity of housing choices, driving prices up in some cases. The median price for home sales in Stowe, for instance, rose again significantly for the third year in a row, topping out at the end of Q3 at $620,000. This is an increase of 11 % as compared to Q3 2017.   Some wonder how long this trend might continue. Are buyers beginning to reach a threshold for what they might be willing to pay for a home, and continue to compete in some cases with multiple offers?  Some media outlets have recently been reporting that housing markets, in places in other parts of the country, are starting to slow down as a result of these factors. Additionally, interest rates have been on the rise, and have recently hit a 7 year high of 5.0%. Although we haven’t seen that negatively impact buyers – it does reduce their buying power.   These factors may influence the sustainability of what has the potential to be the strongest market since 2008.

New Available Listings at a 3 Year Low

CBCRE 2018 Q3 STOWE AREA MARKET REPORT

    33% in Stowe    25% in Lamoille North of Stowe

Months Supply of Single-Family Home Trended Down in Lamoille County

*Stats reflect months supply for each town as compared to the same timeframe in 2017

STOWE, VTCBCRE 2018 Q3 Market ReportPictured: 103 Pinnacle Meadows, Stowe VT | Asking: $1.2M | Click for details

Median Price: $620,000, up  11% from $552,000 in 2017

Average Price: $871,141, up 21% from $692,029 in 2017

Units Sold: 63, up 13% from 55 in 2017

Currently on Market: 64, Down 11% from 71 in 2017

Months Supply: 9, Down 33% from 12 in 2017

Stowe VT Residential Home Sales Q3 2018

*NUMBERS COMPARE FIRST 9 MOS OF 2018 TO THE SAME TIMEFRAME IN 2017

Pictured: 990 Taber Ridge Road, Stowe VT | Asking: $1.395M | Click for details

Some national reports have indicated sales trending downward in certain areas. In Stowe home sales, were up by 13 %, as compared to the first 9 months of 2017. The average sales price for homes in Stowe had an unusual jump, to $871,141 due to a $10.5M residential sale. The average without this large sale would have been $660K. At the end of Q3, there were 13 pending home sales which is down from a total of 20 a year ago during the same time period. With an increase in home sales and a reduction in inventory, we continue to see homes trade above assessed value. It is the high and low ends of our market that seem to benefit the most. The increase seen with homes selling under $500,000, rose as much as 25%, which is 8% more than a year ago.   We continue to see a reduction in days on market. For the first 9 months of 2018, there was a decrease of 36 %, as compared to the same timeframe in 2017. The average days on market for homes priced under $500,000 was 70; sales between $500,000 and $1,000,000 were on an average of 138 days.   Sales up to 1 million dollars sold only 3% less than the listed price, which has tightened over the last few years. 

SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES UNDER $500,000 ARE SELLING AT 25% ABOVE TOWN ASSESSMENT.

2018 Q3 STOWE, VT RESIDENTIAL HOME SALES

Pictured: 1300 Robinson Springs, Stowe VT | Asking: $1.150M

Click for details

2018 Q3 STOWE, VT RESIDENTIAL HOME SALES

2018 Q3 STOWE, VT RESIDENTIAL HOME SALES

THE LUXURY MARKET SAW A 29% DECREASE IN DAYS ON MARKET FOR LISTING BETWEEN $1M-$1.5M IN 2018, AS COMPARED TO 2017. Out of the 63 home sales over the past 9 months, 8 of them sold over $1M. Most of these sales were under $1.5M One of the 2 sales over $1.5M, was located at Spruce Peak, which sold for $2.850M. The other was off of Edson Hill Road, which was a 185 acres estate with 2 residences and barn that sold for $10.5M On average, the sales prices were 6% below the listing prices. The average days on market for properties selling between $1M and $1.5M was 172 days; this is a 29% decrease in time on market from 2017. For properties selling over $1.5M the average days on market was 208 days, a 19% decrease from 2017. While the days on market for properties over $1.5M decreased, this is largely due to the $10.5M sale being added after closing as a comparable listing.

2018 Q3 STOWE, VT LUXURY RESIDENTIAL HOME SALES

Pictured: 3564 Weeks Hill Rd, Stowe VT | Asking: $1.295M Click for details

2018 Q3 STOWE, VT RESIDENTIAL HOME SALES

COLDWELL BANKER CARLSON REAL ESTATE HAS THE MOST CLOSED TRANSACTIONS IN STOWE FOR ANY SINGLE OFFICE IN 2018.

CBCRE 2018 Q3 STOWE AREA MARKET REPORT

Pictured: 95 Winterbird, Stowe VT | Asking: $599K | Click for details

Median Price: $296,250, up 20% from $237,000 in 2017

Average Price: $397,408, up 8% $364,605 in 2017

Units Sold: 52, up 6% from 49 in 2017

Currently on Market: 31, down 39% from 43 in 2017

Months Supply: 6, down 50% from 9 in 2017

Stowe VT Condominium Sales Q3 2018

Pictured: 122 Nosedive, Unit 16, Stowe VT | Asking: $2.450M | Click for details

*NUMBERS COMPARE FIRST 9 MOS OF 2018 TO THE SAME TIMEFRAME IN 2017

MONTHS SUPPLY FOR AVAILABLE CONDOS WAS DOWN 50% AT THE END OF Q3 IN 2018.While condo sales dipped in 2016, the trend has been a steady increase in units sold since 2012. Condominium sales again had a strong showing in the first 9 month of 2018. Sales were up 6%, although compared to the climbing numbers over the past 6 years, it has tapered off. The median and average prices rose as well. The median sales price for Stowe condos was $296,250, a 20% increase from last year at this time. Much like we saw last year at this time, all of the condominium sales for the first 9 months of 2018 were under $750K except for two that were well over $1M. As is typical in our market, they were both located at Spruce Peak. One was an exclusive 3 bedroom Club Residence located in the Adventure Center building which sold for $1.9M; the other a Mountain Cabin which sold at auction for $2.1M.  The list price was $2.950M. Much like single-family homes we are seeing condos sell from 13% to 37% above town assessment. Condos priced between $200K-$400K are selling on average 37% above town assessment. Currently, there are 4 condominiums pending, which is down from a total of 12 seen a year ago.

2018 Q3 STOWE, VT CONDOMINIUM SALES

Pictured: Stowe Mountain Lodge, 3 bed fractional | Asking: $120K Click for details 

2018 Q3 STOWE, VT CONDOMINIUM SALES

2018 Q3 STOWE, VT CONDOMINIUM SALES

Median Price: $243,750, up 17% from $202,500 in 2017

Average Price: $499,250, up 65% from $175,887 in 2017

Units Sold: 12, no change from 2017

Currently on Market: 27, down 74% from 47 in 2017

Months Supply: 7, down 414% from 36 in 2017

Stowe VT Land Sales Q3 2018

*NUMBERS COMPARE FIRST 9 MOS OF 2018 TO THE SAME TIMEFRAME IN 2017

Pictured: Bryan Rd, Stowe VT | Asking: $299K | Click for details

 Land sales in Stowe remain very consistent. Just as there were last year for the first 9 months of 2018, there were 12 parcels of land that sold. Most of the sales were $300,000 and under, yet there were 2 sales that were well over $1,000,000. One of those sales was a 32-acre parcel in Robinson Springs that sold for $2,000,000, causing the average sales price to shoot up 65%.  Otherwise, the median price rose a similar amount to that of home and condo prices. The interesting tale here is that inventory has been reduced by 74%, leaving only 7 months of supply, as compared to 36 months supply in 2017 at this time. The total number of available listings went from 47 in 2017 at this time to 27, that is a 414% decrease in months supply.

MONTHS SUPPLY FOR LAND IS DOWN BY 414% AS COMPARED TO THIS TIME LAST YEAR.

2018 Q3 STOWE, VT LAND SALES

Pictured: 0 Weeks hill, Stowe VT | Asking: $225k | Click for details

LAMOILLE COUNTY*CBCRE 2018 Q3 Market Report *lamoille county, excluding stowe, vt

Pictured: 169 Old Shady Lane, Morrisville, VT| Asking: $359k | Click for details

Median Price: $217,500, up 6% from $203,900 in 2017Average Price: $245,564, up 2% from $241,642 in 2017Units Sold: 177, up 7% from 164 in 2017Currently on Market: 149, Down 16% from 173 in 2017 Months Supply: 8, Down 25% from 10 in 2017

Lamoille County Residential Home Sales Q3 2018

Pictured: 67 Overlook Hill Road, Wolcott,  VT | Asking: $380k | Click for details

*NUMBERS COMPARE FIRST 9 MOS OF 2018 TO THE SAME TIMEFRAME IN 2017. NUMBERS EXCLUDE STOWE.

As for the other towns in Lamoille County, residential sales were up again, by an increase of 7%. The median and average sale prices increased slightly. By the end of Q3, the median price in this area was $217,500, which is about one third less than the median price in Stowe. This continues to provide many more affordable options for buyers looking for moderately priced homes in Lamoille County.   Out of the 177 sales, most of them were under $300,000. Even though inventory continues to drop in this area, there are 149 homes available to choose from; many more than the total of 64 in Stowe. Much like the Stowe market we are also seeing a decrease in days on market. For the first 9 months of 2017 homes were on the market an average of 180 days. In 2018 the average days on market is 136 days; a 24% decrease. At the end of Q3, there were 12 pending home sales, most of which are located in Morristown and Hyde Park.  

SUPPLY OF SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES IN LAMOILLE IS DOWN 25% AT THE END OF Q3 IN 2018.

2018 Q3 LAMOILLE COUNTY* RESIDENTIAL HOME SALES *EXCLUDING STOWE, VT

Pictured:  10 River Run Dr, Ten Bends, Hyde Park, VT | Asking: $245K

Click for Details

2018 Q3 LAMOILLE COUNTY* RESIDENTIAL HOME SALES *EXCLUDING STOWE, VT

CURRENT MORTGAGE RATES:Conventional Loan: 30 year fixed 5.125%, 0 points** 15 year fixed rate 4.500%, 0 points** Jumbo Loan: 30 year fixed rate 5.125%, 0 points** 15 year fixed rate 4.875%, 0 points** *Rates subject to change **Conventional & Jumbo Rates assume 20% down

CBCRE 2018 Q3 STOWE AREA MARKET REPORT

Pictured: 311 North Shore Rd, Greensboro,  VT | Asking: $599K | Click for Details

COLDWELL BANKER CARLSON REAL ESTATE HAS THE MOST CLOSED TRANSACTIONS IN LAMOILLE COUNTY FOR A SINGLE OFFICE IN 2018.

Median Price: $80,o00, up 21% from $63,000 in 2017

Average Price: $140,339 up 49% from $71,435 in 2017

Units Sold: 37, Down 30% from 48 in 2017

Currently on Market: 149, down 9% from 162 in 2017

Months Supply: 36, up 17% from 30 in Q1 2017

Lamoille County Land Sales Q3 2018

Pictured:  0 Worcester Ridge, Elmore,  VT | 131 Acres | Asking:  $850k | Click for details

*NUMBERS COMPARE FIRST 9 MOS OF 2018 TO THE SAME TIMEFRAME IN 2017. NUMBERS EXCLUDE STOWE.

The number of land parcels sold in this region was down fairly significantly for the first 9 months of 2018, which is a contrast to that of the previous year.  This may be partly due to the cost of building which is typically higher than purchasing a pre-existing home.   The median price for land sales was $80,000 which was a 21% increase from $63,000 in 2017. The average price was way up due to a very expensive sale in Elmore, located off of route 12.  This 1,900+ acre parcel was a large timber investment which had an extensive sugar bush and shoreline on Elmore Pond.  It sold for $1.477 million.

AVERAGE LAND SALE PRICE INCREASED BY 49% IN 2018, AS COMPARED TO THE SAME TIME PERIOD IN 2017.

2018 Q3 LAMOILLE COUNTY* LAND SALES *EXCLUDING STOWE, VT

Pictured: 3029 Elmore Mtn Rd, Elmore,  VT | Asking: $245k | Click for details

2018 Q3 LAMOILLE COUNTY* LAND SALES *EXCLUDING STOWE, VT

WATERBURY, VTCBCRE 2018 Q3 Market Report Pictured: 195 Loomis Highlands, Waterbury VT | Sold: $555k

Median Price: $379,500, up 16% from $317,500 in 2017 

Average Price: $383,604, up 9% from $350,314 in 2017

Units Sold: 32, down 38% from 44 in 2017

Currently on Market: 30, down 10% from 33 in 2017

Months Supply: 8, up 13% from 7 in 2017

Waterbury VT Residential Sales Jan-Sept 2018

*NUMBERS COMPARE FIRST 9 MOS OF 2018 TO THE SAME TIMEFRAME IN 2017. 

Pictured: 45 High Birches Rd, Waterbury VT | Sold

UNITS SOLD IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2018 IS DOWN 38% AS COMPARED TO 2017.The Waterbury market remains unique for our area, yet consistent and strong along with the others. As is the case in Lamoille County, buyer demand remains very high here, yet consumers are even more challenged by the lack of inventory which is the least available in the region. Only 32 homes sold over the course of the first nine months of the year, largely due to the fact that there were only about 30 properties for buyers to choose from in this area at any given time. This is likely the reason that sales were actually down by as much as 33% for Q3. Despite a considerable increase in the median price to $379,500 – up 16% - affordability is still an advantage for buyers in Waterbury. Most of the home sales were under $400,000. There were only 3 pending home sales at the end of Q3.

2018 Q3 WATERBURY, VT RESIDENTIAL SALES

Pictured: 195 Loomis Highlands, Waterbury,  VT | Sold

Median Price: $150,000, up 8% from $138,750 in 2017

Avg. Price: $192,479, up 27% from $140,667 in 2017

Units Sold: 9, down 33% from 12 in 2017

Currently on Market: 33, up 6% from 31 in 2017

Months Supply: 33, up 30% from 23 in 2017

Waterbury VT Land Sales Jan-Sept 2018

*NUMBERS COMPARE FIRST 9 MOS OF 2018 TO THE SAME TIMEFRAME IN 2017. 

As for land sales in Waterbury, even though there was a slight increase in inventory, the number of sales was down from 12 in the first 9 months of 2017, to 9 in 2018. These sales represented a wide range of sizes and prices, anywhere from 2 to 78 acres, with prices ranging from $70,000 to $460,000. The median and average prices both increased 8% and 27% respectively. There were 2 pending sales at the end of the quarter, both in the moderate range of $99,000 to $235,000. 

DEMAND FOR LAND IN WATERBURY IS DOWN BY 33%, AS COMPARED TO 2017.