2018 retail projections with charts · houston’s new . retail real estate market projections...

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1.30.2018 2018 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Ed Wulfe (713) 621-1700 (713) 627-3073 (Fax) [email protected] HOUSTON, TEXAS 23% DECREASE IN RETAIL DEVELOPMENT PROJECTED Wulfe & Co.’s 25th Annual Retail Survey projects 3.3 million square feet of new retail shopping center space will be built and opened in the greater Houston area in 2018. This represents a more typical year for Houston’s new retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million square feet each year, according to Ed Wulfe, Chairman & CEO, of Wulfe & Co., a Houston-based retail real estate brokerage, development and property management firm. This year’s square footage projection is realistic and appropriate when considering that the square foot average over the previous ten years was 3.0 million per year”, Wulfe added. Other factors contributed to the projected tapering off of new retail construction in 2018 including the impact of Hurricane Harvey which pushed completion of construction on several projects into 2019. Also during 2017, many major retail chain stores focused on improving the integration of their ecommerce business into their overall retail marketing efforts to improve both their online business and store sales, and they succeeded. Many of the discount stores, supermarkets and general merchandise stores converted certain areas of existing store space into distribution center areas to most efficiently provide pick-up and delivery of merchandise ordered online.

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Page 1: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

1.30.2018

2018

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:

Ed Wulfe (713) 621-1700(713) 627-3073 (Fax)[email protected], TEXAS

23% DECREASE IN RETAIL DEVELOPMENT PROJECTED

Wulfe & Co.’s 25th Annual Retail Survey projects 3.3 million square feet of new retail shopping

center space will be built and opened in the greater Houston area in 2018. This represents a

more typical year for Houston’s new retail real estate market projections compared to the very

active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million square feet each year,

according to Ed Wulfe, Chairman & CEO, of Wulfe & Co., a Houston-based retail real estate

brokerage, development and property management firm. “This year’s square footage

projection is realistic and appropriate when considering that the square foot average over the

previous ten years was 3.0 million per year”, Wulfe added.

Other factors contributed to the projected tapering off of new retail construction in 2018

including the impact of Hurricane Harvey which pushed completion of construction on several

projects into 2019. Also during 2017, many major retail chain stores focused on improving the

integration of their ecommerce business into their overall retail marketing efforts to improve

both their online business and store sales, and they succeeded.

Many of the discount stores, supermarkets and general merchandise stores converted certain

areas of existing store space into distribution center areas to most efficiently provide pick-up

and delivery of merchandise ordered online.

Page 2: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

1.30.2018

2

In 2018, retailers, large and small, will continue to successfully integrate physical and digital

operations as consumers broaden their shopping experiences to online markets. Today,

almost all major retailers have augmented their physical store operation with online shopping

as they strive to offer customers a seamless physical and digital shopping experience.

The retail development activity projected for 2018 for the greater Houston area offsets the

aggressive expansion of retailers to serve the extensive suburban growth created by the

single-family and multi-family housing booms of recent years particularly along the Grand

Parkway. This growth will continue as recently projected by Metrostudy with their five percent

increase of 28,500 new single-family home sales in 2018 and Apartment Data Service’s

prediction of 7 - 8,000 new multi-family units to open in 2018.

Many of the new retail developments for the coming year are either already under

construction, have fully executed leases with national chain stores, or are being self-

developed by retailers such as supermarkets who will either own or lease the properties with

only an estimated 20% devoted to spec space.

HEB will dominate new retail construction and represent 16% of 2018’s projected growth with

six new stores planned. Kroger will open two of their 100,000 SF plus prototype stores.

Recent newcomer, ALDI, will add ten of their smaller 19,000 SF stores to the Houston market

and Sprouts will open one of their neighborhood supermarkets. In addition, H-Mart, a 54-store

national chain of Asian supermarkets, will open their third Houston store containing

approximately 50,000 SF in Katy.

According to supermarket market share figures from The Shelby Report’s East Texas/La.

Division, HEB is number one in the grocery market with its 91 stores and 26.6% share;

Walmart has 101 stores and a 25.1% share; and Kroger, with its 112 stores, has a 22.5% share

in the very competitive environment.

Costco will open one new 150,000 SF store, and there will be one new home improvement

center by Lowes and one by Home Depot. Most significantly, there will be six new theaters

and four new LA Fitness facilities. Pinstripe will open a 34,000 SF bowling/restaurant concept.

Neither Walmart nor Target discount stores will open a store in 2018.

Page 3: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

1.30.2018

3

“Even with the new retail space, overall retail occupancy in Houston will continue strong and

approach an all-time high rate of an estimated 95%. Retail rental rates will increase slightly in

response to the limited availability of shopping center space, higher land and development

costs and estimated increases in interest rates. With the area’s continued growth along with

the expansion needs of both established and new-to-market retailers, the competition for

available space in well located, retail developments, is intense in spite of the higher rental

rates,” Wulfe stated.

Another ever growing challenge facing the shopping center industry today is the need to re-

tenant and or recycle closed store space. A hard look must be taken at the future of marginal

regional malls due to the loss of certain anchor department stores and the closing of a

number of mall-focused national chain retailers. Innovation in tenant mix, reconfiguration of

buildings and space, continuous refurbishing of properties, and adaptation of alternative uses

is necessary to keep existing retail space relevant now and into the future.

Houston’s retail market has been able to continue its growth and vibrancy even with the

slowdown in its energy sector reporting the sixth lowest cost of living among the nation’s

twenty most populous metropolitan areas. “Our diversified economy is resilient and will be

augmented by a continued growth in employment, with an estimated 45,000 to 70,000 new

jobs to be created in 2018, assuming the price of oil remains relatively stable. Houston’s

unemployment rate currently is low at 4.3%,” Wulfe stated.

As in the past few years, another inherent part of the retail real estate growth is the aggressive

growth of new national, regional, and local restaurant operations of all types and sizes.

Houston has gained national and international recognition for its many outstanding new,

innovative and creative food venues. Houston restaurant concepts and chefs have been

featured in many national and international articles for their creativity and skill in their new

concepts today more than in the past. From casual dining to upscale specialty dining, the

restaurants generate traffic, create energy and bring life to a project and play an ever-

increasing role in its success and vitality.

Another noticeable trend throughout the Houston area is the expansion of the healthcare

industry to more convenient, accessible, and less expensive retail sites. The locations include

Page 4: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

1.30.2018

4

suburban hospitals, urgent care centers, clinics, outpatient facilities and professional offices.

The healthcare industry is making a concerted effort to deliver their services directly to the

consumer where they live or work to capitalize on the benefits of a retail location with its

abundant and convenient parking and accessibility.

Wulfe & Co. is a commercial real estate firm specializing in the retail real estate marketplace,

and has now produced this annual retail survey of Houston’s retail market for twenty-five

years. The firm is active in shopping center leasing, sales, development, property

management, and consulting, and enjoys long-term relationships with local, regional, and

national retailers, developers, owners, and financial institutions.

Page 5: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

Wulfe & Co. 2018 Projection-23% decrease from 2017

Prepared By:

Research Department

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

6.26

3.07

0.941.21

1.94 1.95

2.37

3.23

4.564.27

3.28

Squa

re Feet ( M

illions)

Year

Greater Houston Retail Forecast3.3 Million Square Feet of Retail Space

to be Built and Opened in 2018,a 23% Decrease from 2017

1/24/2018 1:01 PM

Page 6: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

Prepared By:

Research Department

Supermarkets30% Home Improvement

6%

Theaters7%

Discount Stores4%

Other Anchors28%

Spec Space25%

Greater Houston Retail Forecast By Category3.3 Million Square Feet of Retail Space

to be Built and Opened in 2018

1/24/2018 1:02 PM

Page 7: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:

Ed Wulfe (713) 621-1700 (713) 627-3073 (Fax) [email protected] HOUSTON, TEXAS

9.2% INCREASE IN RETAIL DEVELOPMENT PROJECTED

Wulfe & Co.’s 24th Annual Retail Survey projects 4.98 million square feet of new

retail shopping center space will be built and opened in the greater Houston area

in 2017. These additions to Houston’s extensive retail real estate market

constitute a 9.2% increase over the 4.5 million square feet completed in 2016.

This impressive increase over the strong results of 2016 reflects Houston’s

continuously strengthened position in the retail real estate sector, according to

Ed Wulfe, Chairman & CEO, of Wulfe & Co., a Houston-based retail real estate

brokerage, development and property management firm.

The substantial development activity projected for 2017 for the greater Houston

area is a result of the demand created by the single-family and multi-family

housing booms of recent years; plans by existing retailers to protect market

share; the impact of new retailers eager to open stores in the market; and

population growth. Many of the new developments for the coming year are either

already under construction, have fully executed leases with national retailers, are

being self-developed by retailers, or include planned new projects of major

development firms in response to the active retail real estate marketplace.

2017

Page 8: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

2

The majority of the new retail space will be either owned or leased by major

retailers, including supermarkets, discount stores and power retailers. There will

only be approximately ten percent of speculative small store space available for

lease, which is another indicator of Houston’s strength.

Supermarkets will continue to dominate new retail construction and represent

23% of 2017’s projected growth with 21 new stores planned. Kroger will open six

more of their 123,000 SF prototype stores. HEB will open three additional 100,000

SF markets and one Joe V’s Smart Shop. Recent newcomer, ALDI, will add ten of

their smaller 19,000 SF stores to the Houston market and Walmart will open one

of their neighborhood supermarkets, added Bob Sellingsloh, President of Wulfe &

Co.

According to supermarket market share figures from The Shelby Report’s East

Texas/La. Division, HEB is number one in the grocery market with its 92 stores

and 26.4% share; Walmart has 102 stores and a 25.3% share; and Kroger, with its

112 stores, has a 23.6% share in the very competitive environment.

Wulfe & Co.’s 2017 Annual Survey reflects that in addition to the substantial

amount of new supermarket space to be added, Walmart will be opening three

and Target will open two of their super store concepts. Costco will open a new

150,000 SF store and At Home will open three of their 100,000 SF stores. Total

Wine, who initially entered the Houston market late last year, will open six of their

25-35,000 SF stores. Also, for the first time in several years there will be three

new home improvement centers, two by Lowes and one by Home Depot. Most

significantly, there will be seven new theaters; two new Lifetime Fitness

locations, one new LA Fitness, and a new VillaSport Athletic Club and Spa.

Pinstripe will open a 34,000 SF bowling/restaurant concept. Altogether, a total of

4.98 million SF will be built and opened in 2017. This is the highest level of retail

growth since 2008, Wulfe stated.

Much of this activity serves suburban growth markets with many new major retail

projects capitalizing on the Grand Parkway’s proximity to new residential

developments.

Page 9: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

3

“Even with this aggressive expansion of new retail space commitments, overall

retail occupancy in Houston will continue to strengthen and approach an all-time

high rate in excess of an estimated 94%. Retail rental rates will increase slightly

in response to the limited availability of shopping center space and higher land

and development costs. With the area’s continued growth along with the

expansion needs of both established and new-to-market retailers, the competition

for available space in well located, well tenanted retail developments, is intensive

in spite of the higher rental rates,” Wulfe added.

In 2017 the retail real estate sector must address the rapidly evolving challenges

relating to the convergence of retailers’ physical and digital environments as

consumers broaden their shopping experiences to online markets. Today, almost

all major retailers have augmented their physical store operation with online

shopping as part of their merchandising strategy to offer customers a seamless

physical and digital integrated shopping experience. According to First Data,

online holiday sales rose 12% accounting for 21% of all holiday spending which

is up 15% from last year.

Another ever growing challenge facing the shopping center industry today is the

need to reconfigure and re-tenant the marginal regional malls due to the loss of

certain anchor department stores and the closing of a number of mall-focused

national chain retailers. Innovation in tenant mix, reconfiguration of buildings and

space, continuous refurbishing of the property, and adaptation of alternative uses

can keep regional malls relevant throughout 2017 and into the future.

As reflected this year and the past few years, Houston’s recent financial and

employment cutbacks in the energy markets have not noticeably affected

Houston’s retail real estate sector, and Houston’s retail market has been able to

continue its growth and vibrancy. Houston’s year over year population growth

amounted to 40,000 new residents, second only to New York, according to the

Census. Houston also has the sixth lowest cost of living among the nation’s

twenty most populous metropolitan areas. Our diversified economy is resilient

and will be augmented by a return to growth in employment, estimated to be

approximately 29,700 new jobs in 2017.

Page 10: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

4

Another inherent part of the retail real estate growth is the unfolding of new

national, regional, and local restaurant operations of all types and sizes. In the

past few years, Houston has gained national and international recognition for its

many outstanding new, innovative and creative food venues. The restaurant

concepts and chefs have been featured in many national and international

articles for their creativity and skill that they offer Houston patrons. From casual

dining to upscale specialty dining, from fast food to gourmet cuisine, the

restaurants generate traffic, create energy and bring entertainment to a project

and play an ever-increasing role in the success and vitality of a retail property.

Another growing trend that is gaining momentum throughout the Houston area is

the expansion of the healthcare industry to more convenient, accessible, and less

expensive retail locations. The locations include suburban hospitals, urgent care

centers, clinics, outpatient facilities and professional offices. The healthcare

industry is making a concerted effort to deliver their services directly to the

consumer with the benefits of a retail location with convenient, ample parking

and easily accessible medical facilities and services.

“Although Houston’s overall development environment is projected to experience

a slowdown in new office building and multifamily construction this year, the

vacancies should not have a material effect on the continued growth and

development in 2017 of retail properties and in the immediate future,” Wulfe

added.

Wulfe & Co. is a commercial real estate firm specializing in the retail real estate

marketplace, and has produced this annual retail survey of Houston’s retail

market for twenty-four years. The firm is active in shopping center leasing, sales,

development, property management, and consulting, and enjoys long-term

relationships with local, regional, and national retailers, developers, owners, and

financial institutions.

01.11.2017

Page 11: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

Wulfe & Co. 2017 Projection9.2% increase over 2016

Prepared By:

Research Department

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

3.92

6.26

3.07

0.941.21

1.94 1.95

2.37

3.23

4.56

4.98

Squa

re Feet ( M

illions)

Year

Greater Houston Retail Forecast4.98 Million Square Feet of Retail Space

to be Built and Opened in 2017,an 9.2% Increase over 2016

Page 12: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

Prepared By:

Research Department

Supermarkets23%

Home Improvement6%

Theaters5%

Discount Stores20%

Other Anchors36%

Spec Space10%

Greater Houston Retail Forecast By Category4.98 Million Square Feet of Retail Space

to be Built and Opened in 2017

Page 13: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:

Ed Wulfe (713) 621-1700 (713) 627-3073 (Fax) [email protected] HOUSTON, TEXAS

33% INCREASE IN RETAIL DEVELOPMENT PROJECTED

Wulfe & Co.’s 23nd Annual Retail Survey projects 4.53 million square feet of new

retail shopping center space will be built and opened in the greater Houston area

in 2016, representing a significant 33% increase over the previous year, according

to Ed Wulfe, Chairman & CEO, of Wulfe & Co., a Houston-based retail real estate

brokerage, development and property management firm.

In 2016 shopping centers in the greater Houston area will continue to reflect

robust activity as a result of the demand created with the single family and multi-

amily housing boom of the past four years, Houston’s average population growth

of at least 100,000 annually and the positive influence of the strong national

economy.

The majority of new retail space is either owned or leased by the individual

stores, like many supermarkets, discount stores and power retailers, and there

will only be approximately thirteen percent of speculative small store space

available for lease. Many of the new developments for the coming year are either

already under construction, have fully executed leases with financially strong

national retailers or are being developed by major development firms in response

to the vibrant retail real estate marketplace.

2016

Page 14: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

2

As occurred last year, supermarkets will dominate new retail construction and

represent 39% of 2016’s projected growth with 28 new stores planned. Kroger

will open nine of their 123,000 sf stores, HEB will open five of its 100,000 sf

prototype markets, Walmart will open four of their neighborhood supermarkets,

Whole Foods will open one, and recent newcomer ALDI will add nine of their

smaller 18,000 sf stores to the market.

According to supermarket share figures from The Shelby Report’s East Texas/La.

Division, HEB has taken over the lead of the grocery market with its 91 stores and

25.9% share; Walmart has 92 stores and 25.2%; and Kroger with its 111 stores

has 23.6% in the very competitive environment.

Wulfe & Co.’s Annual Survey also indicated in addition to the substantial amount

of new supermarket space to be added in 2016, Dick’s Sporting Goods, a major

well-known national sporting goods chain is entering our market with the

addition of six new stores of approximately 50-100,000 sf; Academy will add two

new 63,000 sf stores and Cabella’s will open one 72,000 sf store. In addition

Costco will open a new 150,000 sf store and Walmart will open another 180,000 sf

Walmart Superstore. Also there will be six new theaters; three new 24 Hour

Fitness centers and one LA Fitness facility. Altogether a total of 4.53 million

square feet will be built and opened, which will be the highest amount since 2008.

Much of this activity serves suburban markets to the North, Northwest, West and

Southwest, with many new major retail projects capitalizing on the Grand

Parkway’s evolution. There are also six mall expansions planned and several

mixed use developments within the urban core.

“With this high expansion of new retail space commitments, overall retail

occupancy in Houston will continue to strengthen and achieve an all-time high

occupancy rate in excess of 94%. Retail rental rates will also continue to

increase driven by the limited availability of shopping center space and the

higher land and development costs. With the area’s vigorous growth coupled

with the expansion needs of established and new-to-market retailers, the

competition for available space in well located, well tenanted and highly desirable

Page 15: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

3

retail developments, is aggressive, even at ever-increasing higher rates” Wulfe

added.

The evolution of e-commerce continues to mature and grow, and is approaching

fifteen percent of total retail sales. “Convergence” is the buzz word and the on-

going convergence of physical and digital retail merchandising is taking hold and

is the prevailing trend of today. Today’s shopper uses online capability to locate

and select merchandise capitalizing on comparison shopping. In many cases

they actually purchase and pick up the merchandise in the stores thus

complementing the stores’ sales and traffic. Today almost all major retailers

have implemented their online capabilities as part of their merchandising strategy

to offer customers a seamless physical and digital integrated shopping

experience.

While the impact of recent financial and employment cutbacks primarily in the

energy markets in Houston has softened retail sales, retail real estate has not

experienced a downtrend in comparison to the results encountered in the other

commercial real estate segments, like office and multifamily. The lower cost of

fuel has increased spendable funds for consumers and is reflected in increased

sales among retailers and a reduction in consumer debt. Early reports on the

season’s holiday sales are exceeding projections, especially online.

Houston’s diversified economy is resilient and augmented by solid growth in

employment in the medical, construction, petro chemical and Port of Houston

industries. Job growth is estimated to be 20-25,000 in 2016. Houston has the

third lowest cost of living among the nation’s twenty most populous metropolitan

areas.

Another inherent part of the retail real estate growth we are experiencing is the

unfolding of new national, regional and local restaurant operations of all types

and sizes. It has been estimated approximately three hundred new restaurants

and bars open each year in Houston. From casual dining to upscale specialty

dining, from fast food to gourmet cuisine, they generate traffic, energy and

entertainment for a project and play an ever-increasing role in the success and

Page 16: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

4

vitality of retail properties. In the past few years Houston has gained national and

international recognition for its many excellent new, innovative and creative

restaurant concepts and chefs.

Another noteworthy emerging trend gaining momentum throughout Houston is

the expansion of the healthcare industry to more convenient and accessible

suburban shopping center locations for suburban hospitals, emergency care

centers, clinics, outpatient facilities and professional offices in a concerted effort

to take healthcare to the consumer.

“This growth supports and justifies additional retail to serve the ever-increasing

population and need of the consumer for goods and services. People are

continuing to move to Houston from other areas of the country with or without

jobs, because of the potential for employment and opportunity. Although in

Houston’s overall development environment there is projected to be a slowdown

in new office building and multifamily construction this year, it should not have a

material effect on retail growth in the area” Wulfe added.

Wulfe & Co. is a commercial real estate firm specializing in the retail real estate

marketplace, and has produced this annual retail survey of Houston’s retail

market for twenty three years. The firm is active in shopping center leasing,

sales, development, property management, and consulting, and has established

relationships with local, regional and national retailers, developers and owners.

Page 17: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

Wulfe & Co. 2016 Projection33.4% increase over 2015

Prepared By:

Research Department

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

3.58

3.92

6.26

3.07

0.94

1.21

1.94 1.95

2.37

3.40

4.53

Squa

re Feet ( M

illions)

Year

Greater Houston Retail Forecast4.53 Million Square Feet of Retail Space

to be Built and Opened in 2016,a 33% Increase over 2015

Page 18: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

Prepared By:

Research Department

Supermarkets39%

Theaters6%

Discount Stores9%

Other Anchors33%

Spec Space13%

Greater Houston Retail Forecast By Category4.53 Million Square Feet of Retail Space

to be Built and Opened in 2016

Page 19: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

5.9

6.5

7.1

7.7

8.4

9.2

9.9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Popu

lati

on (M

illio

ns)

Source: The Perryman Group

Houston Area Population Forecasts

Page 20: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

2015

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:

Ed Wulfe (713) 621-1700 (713) 627-3073 (Fax) [email protected] HOUSTON, TEXAS

56% INCREASE IN RETAIL DEVELOPMENT PROJECTED

Wulfe & Co.’s 22nd Annual Retail Survey projects 3.71 million square feet of new

retail shopping center space will be built and opened in the greater Houston area

in 2015, representing an increase of an impressive 56% over the previous years’

2.37 million square feet, according to Ed Wulfe, Chairman & CEO, of Wulfe & Co.,

a Houston-based retail real estate brokerage, development and property

management firm.

Supermarkets will dominate new retail construction and represent 43% of 2015’s

growth with 32 new stores planned. HEB will open seven, Kroger will open four

plus expand two, Walmart will open four of their neighborhood market stores,

Whole Foods and Sprouts will each add two, Fiesta and Trader Joe’s will each

open one, and relative newcomer ALDI will add eleven of their smaller 18,000 sf

stores to our market.

According to supermarket share figures from The Shelby Report’s East Texas/La.

Division, Walmart with its 92 stores has 25.5% of the grocery market; HEB with its

87 stores has 25.1% and Kroger with its 111 stores has 23.8%.

Page 21: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

2

Most importantly, because the majority of new retail space is either owned or

leased by the individual stores, like many supermarkets, discount stores and

power retailers, it is in their best financial interest to own and operate their

stores, leaving only 15-20% of speculative space to be leased in the coming year.

Wulfe & Co.’s Annual Survey also indicated in addition to the substantial amount

of new supermarket space to be added in 2015 there will be one new 180,000 sf

Walmart Superstore; a new 165,000 sf Gallery Furniture store; one new Lowe’s

home Improvement center; five new theaters; three new Academy stores and two

new Ross stores when combined with the supermarket space will altogether

make up the total of 3.71 million square feet, the highest amount since 2008.

“With this high activity of new retail growth we project that higher retail

occupancy rates will exceed a seldom achieved rate of 92 % this year. Retail

rental rates will also continue to increase driven by limited availability of

shopping center space, higher land costs and higher construction costs for

materials and labor to build or remodel new retail facilities,” Wulfe stated.

The recent financial cutbacks in the energy markets are proving somewhat

beneficial to the retail market. The lower cost of fuel has increased spendable

funds for consumers and is reflected in increased sales among retailers and a

reduction in consumer debt. Additionally, the projected slowdown in

construction of multifamily and office developments will improve on the

availability of construction materials and workforce for retail projects and will

expedite construction schedules in a more competitive environment.

Another characteristic of the retail growth we are experiencing across Houston’s

expanding markets is the growth of new national, regional and local restaurant

operations of all types and sizes. From casual dining to upscale specialty dining,

from fast food to gourmet cuisine, they generate traffic, energy and entertainment

for a project. Restaurants play an ever-increasing role in the success and vitality

of retail properties, including financial. In the past few years Houston has gained

national and international recognition for its many new, innovative and creative

restaurant concepts and chefs.

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3

An emerging trend also gaining momentum is the expansion of the healthcare

industry to more convenient and accessible shopping center locations for

emergency care centers, clinics, outpatient facilities and professional offices.

This activity is further supplemented by the on-going addition of smaller

hospitals in suburban locations in an effort to take healthcare to the consumer.

With all of the growth in the retail marketplace the competition is vigorous for

available space of all types and sizes, even at the ever-increasing higher rates for

well located, well tenanted and highly desirable retail developments throughout

the greater Houston area, Wulfe added.

This aggressive development illustrates the broad based depth and diversified

strength that Houston’s economy experienced last year with the addition of

approximately 120,000 new jobs during the past twelve months and the new

projections for an estimated 63,000 new jobs in 2015.

With a metro Houston area population of 6.3 million today and projections for

continued growth to 7.4 million by 2020, we have seen our multi-dimensional

economy achieve one of the nation’s lowest unemployment rates at 4.5%.

Houston’s well known and highly appealing lower costs of living warrants further

acknowledgement as one of the strongest and leading growth markets in the

United States and further supports continued expansion of its retail marketplace.

The impressive growth has fueled new home sales to record levels and resulted

in reducing residential inventory to a few months’ supply. Homebuilders started

30,000 new single family homes last year and an aggressive 25,000 new single

family homes are projected to be started in 2015, with many in master planned

communities, according to Mark Dotzour, Chief Economist from Texas A & M Real

Estate Center.

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4

With almost 19,000 new multi-family residential units delivered in 2014 and with

the Apartment Data Services projecting 20,000 units to be delivered in 2015

multifamily development exceeds annual production in any of the past several

years as Houston continues to densify with many mid-rise and high-rise projects

within the urban core.

This population and housing growth supports and justifies the additional retail to

serve the ever-increasing need of the consumer for goods and services. People

are continuing to move to Houston from other areas of the country with or

without jobs, because of the potential for employment and opportunity. Although

in Houston’s overall development environment there is projected to be a

slowdown in new office building and multifamily construction this year it should

not have an effect on retail growth this year.

The evolution of ecommerce continues to mature and grow, and is approaching

about ten percent of total retail sales. Online capability is often used to locate

and select merchandise and for comparison shopping, but in many cases the

merchandise is actually purchased or picked up in the stores and complements

the stores’ sales and traffic. Today almost all sophisticated retailers have

implemented their own online capabilities as part of their merchandising strategy

and capitalize on the inherent features and advantages of each.

Wulfe & Co. is a commercial real estate firm specializing in the retail real estate

marketplace, and has produced this annual retail survey of Houston’s retail

market for twenty two years. The firm is active in shopping center leasing, sales,

development property management and consulting and has well-established

relationships with local, regional and national retailers and shopping center

developers and owners.

Page 24: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

Wulfe & Co. 2015 Projection56.4% increase over 2014

Prepared By:

Research Department

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

3.17

3.58

3.92

6.26

3.07

0.941.21

1.94 1.95

2.37

3.71Squa

re Feet ( M

illions)

Year

Greater Houston Retail Forecast3.7 Million Square Feet of Retail Space

to be Built and Opened in 2015,a 56% Increase over 2014

Page 25: 2018 Retail Projections with Charts · Houston’s new . retail real estate market projections compared to the very active 2016 and 2017 construction levels which averaged 4.4 million

Prepared By:

Research Department

Supermarkets43%

Home Improvement3%

Theaters8%

Discount Stores5%

Other Anchors23%

Spec Space18%

Greater Houston Retail Forecast By Category3.7 Million Square Feet of Retail Space

to be Built and Opened in 2015