Corn and Soybean Outlook

Todd Hubbs

U.S. Corn Supply and Use2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

USDA Estimate

2019/20 USDA

ForecastArea Planted (mil. Acres) 90.6 88 94.0 90.2 89.1 89.9Area Harvested (mil. Acres) 83.1 80.8 86.7 82.7 81.7 81.8Yield (Bu./acre) 171 168.4 174.6 176.6 176.4 167.0Production (mil. Bu.) 14,216 13,602 15,148 14,609 14,420 13,661Imports (mil. Bu.) 32 67 57 36 28 50Total Supply (mil. Bu.) 15,479 15,401 16,942 16,939 16,588 15,825Feed and Residual (mil. Bu.) 5,284 5,113 5,470 5,304 5,618 5,275Food, Seed, and Industrial

(mil. Bu.) 6,601 6,643 6,885 7,056 6,791 6,790

Ethanol (mil. Bu.) 5,200 5,224 5,432 5,605 5,376 5,375Exports (mil. Bu.) 1,867 1,901 2,294 2,438 2,065 1,850Total Use (mil. Bu.) 13,748 13,664 14,649 14,799 14,474 13,915Ending Stocks (mil. Bu.) 1,731 1,737 2,293 2,140 2,114 1,910Season Average Price ($ per Bu.) $3.70 $3.61 $3.36 $3.36 $3.61 $3.85

Corn Production

12.4 12.3

10.8

13.814.2

13.6

15.114.6 14.4

13.7

2.3

2.93.2 3.1 3.3

2.6

3.9

3.2

4.0 4.0

1.0 0.81.1 1.0 1.2 1.2

1.61.3

2.0 2.0

0.50.9 0.8

1.2 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.91.4 1.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Bill

ion

of

Bu

shel

s

United States Brazil Argentina UkraineData: NASS

U.S. Feed and Residual Use

5,819 5,845

5,545

5,778

6,132 6,111

5,535

5,853

5,128 5,096

4,770

4,512

4,309

5,002

5,286

5,118

5,470

5,304

5,618

5,275

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mill

ion

s o

f B

ush

els

Feed and Residual UseData: NASS

U.S. Corn Used for Ethanol

630 707

9961,168

1,323

1,603

2,119

3,049

3,709

4,591

5,019 5,000

4,641

5,124 5,200 5,2245,432

5,605

5,376 5,375

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Mill

ion

s o

f B

ush

els

U.S. Weekly Gasoline Demand

Data: EIA

8

8.5

9

9.5

10

10.5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mill

ion

s o

f B

arre

ls p

er

Da

y

2018 2019 5-Year Avg.

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

World Brazil Canada China Columbia India South Korea Mexico Netherlands Philippines UAE UK

Mil

lio

ns

of

Gal

lon

s

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

U.S Ethanol Exports by Marketing Year

Data: EIA

U.S. Corn Exports

2,134 2,125

2,437

1,849

1,979

1,831

1,539

730

1,9211,867 1,899

2,294

2,439

2,067

1,850

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Mil

lio

ns

of

Bu

sh

els

World Mexico Japan South Korea ColumbiaData: FAS GATS

U.S. Corn Stocks to Use Ratio and Average Farm Price

19.50%

16.26%

11.45%

9.37%

19.83%

17.46%

11.63%

12.75%

13.94%13.10%

8.65%7.92%

7.41%

9.16%

12.59% 12.71%

15.66%

14.46% 14.61%13.73%

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Do

llars p

er Bu

sh

elP

erc

ent

Corn Stocks to Use Ratio Weighted Avg. Farm Price

167

y = 1.8749t + 59.275R² = 0.9079

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

bu. p

er a

c.

Data: NASS

U.S. Average Corn Yield

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

tho

us

and

s

Planted

Harvested

Data: NASS

Planted and Harvested Acreage of Corn

Corn Balance Sheet2019-20USDA

Forecast2019-20 Forecast

2020-21USDA

Forecast 2020-21 Forecast

Supply: Planted Acreage (mill. Ac.) 89.9 89.9 94.5 92.1

Harvested Acreage (mill. Ac.) 81.8 81.5 87.1 84.7Yield (Bu. / Ac.) 167.0 165.3 178.5 177.4Total Production(mill. Bu.) 13,661 13,472 15,545 15,025Beginning Stocks(mill. Bu.) 2,114 2,114 1,910 1,671Imports (mill. Bu.) 50 50 25 25

Total Supply (mill. Bu.) 15,825 15,636 17,480 16,721

Consumption: Feed and Residual (mill. Bu.) 5,275 5,300 5,775 5,425Food, Seed, and Industrial (mill. Bu.) 6,790 6,790 6,870 6,820

Ethanol (mill. Bu.) 5,375 5,375 5,450 5,400Exports (mill. Bu.) 1,850 1,865 2,100 2,050

Total Consumption (mill. Bu.) 13,915 13,955 14,745 14,295

Ending Stocks (mill. Bu.) 1,910 1,681 2,735 2,426Stocks-to-Use 13.7% 12.0% 18.5% 17.0%

Average Price ($/bu.) $3.85 $3.95 $3.40 $3.55

Marketing Year Corn Basis - Central Illinois

-55

-50

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

6-S

ep

13-S

ep20

-Sep

27-S

ep4-

Oct

11-O

ct18

-Oct

25-O

ct1-

No

v8-

No

v15

-No

v22

-No

v29

-No

v6-

De

c13

-Dec

20-D

ec27

-Dec

4-Ja

n11

-Jan

17-J

an24

-Jan

31-J

an7-

Fe

b14

-Feb

21-F

eb28

-Feb

7-M

ar14

-Ma

r21

-Ma

r28

-Ma

r4-

Ap

r11

-Ap

r18

-Ap

r25

-Ap

r2-

Ma

y9-

Ma

y16

-May

23-M

ay30

-May

6-Ju

n13

-Ju

n20

-Ju

n27

-Ju

n5-

Jul

12-J

ul

19-J

ul

26-J

ul

2-A

ug

9-A

ug

16-A

ug

23-A

ug

30-A

ug

Ce

nts

pe

r B

us

he

l

2018-19

2019-203 Year Average

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use2014/

152015/

162016/

172017/

182018/19

USDAEstimate

2019/20 USDA

ForecastArea Planted (mil. Acres) 83.3 82.7 83.4 90.2 89.2 76.5

Area Harvested (mil. Acres) 82.6 81.7 82.7 89.5 87.6 75.6

Yield (Bu./acre) 47.5 48 52.0 49.3 50.6 46.9

Production (mil. Bu.) 3,927 3,296 4,296 4,412 4,428 3,550

Imports (mil. Bu.) 33 24 22 22 14 20

Total Supply (mil. Bu.) 4,052 4,140 4,515 4,735 4,880 4,483

Crush (mil. Bu.) 1,873 1,886 1,901 2,055 2,092 2,105

Seed and Residual (mil. Bu.) 146 122 146 113 128 128

Exports (mil. Bu.) 1,842 1,936 2,166 2,129 1,748 1,775

Total Use (mil. Bu.) 3,862 3,944 4,214 4,297 3,967 4,008

Ending Stocks (mil. Bu.) 191 197 302 438 913 475

Season Average Price ($ per Bu.) $10.10 $8.95 $9.47 $9.33 $8.48 $9.00

Soybean Production

2.7

3.0

3.4 3.3

3.1 3.0

3.4

3.9 3.9

4.34.4 4.4

3.7

2.22.1

2.5

2.8

2.4

3.03.2

3.6 3.5

4.2

4.5

4.3

4.5

1.7

1.2

2.0

1.8

1.5

1.82.0

2.32.1 2.1

1.4

2.02.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

Bill

ion

s o

f B

ush

els

United States Brazil ArgentinaData: NASS

1,640

1,700

1,615

1,530

1,6961,739

1,808 1,803

1,662

1,752

1,648

1,703 1,6891,734

1,873 1,886 1,901

2,0552,092 2,105

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

Mill

ion

s o

f B

ush

els

U.S. Soybean Crush

U.S. Soybean Exports

9961,064 1,044

887

1,097

940

1,116 1,159

1,279

1,499 1,505

1,366 1,328

1,639

1,8421,942

2,166 2,129

1,748 1,775

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Mill

ion

Bu

shel

s

U.S. Soybean Exports China Mexico JapanData: FAS GATS

487382

787622

9481,041 1,056

1,3901,510

1,8191,923

2,1132,200

2,535

2,879

3,058

3,436 3,458

3,0333,123

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Mill

ion

s o

f B

ush

els

China Soybean Imports

Data: FAS

Brazil and U.S. Monthly Exports

Data: COMEX VIS and FAS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Mil

lion

s o

f B

ush

els

U.S. 2017-18 U.S. 2018-19 Brazil 2017-18 Brazil 2018-19

U.S. Soybean Stocks to Use Ratio and Average Farm Price

8.84%

7.09%6.38%

4.43%

8.57%

15.60%

18.63%

6.71%

4.53% 4.49%

6.55%

5.35%4.53%

2.65%

4.95% 4.99%

7.17%

10.19%

23.01%

11.85%

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

Do

llars p

er Bu

sh

elP

erc

ent

U.S. Soybean Stocks to Use Ratio Avg. Farm Price

46.9

y = 0.4362x + 21.158R² = 0.8942

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Bush

els p

er A

cre

U.S. Soybean Average Yield

Data: NASS

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

tho

us

and

s Planted

Harvested

Planted and Harvested Acreage of Soybeans

Data: NASS

Soybean Balance Sheet2019-20USDA

Forecast2019-20 Forecast

2020-21USDA

Forecast2020-21 Forecast

Supply:

Planted Acreage (mil.) 76.5 76.5 84.0 85.4Harvested Acreage (mil.) 75.6 75.4 83.2 84.6Yield (bu./ac.) 46.9 45.8 50.5 50.3Production (mil. bu.) 3,550 3,453 4,200 4,255Beginning stocks (mil. bu.) 913 913 475 383Imports (mil. bu.) 20 20 20 20

Total Supply (mil. bu.) 4,483 4,386 4,695 4,658

Consumption:

Crush (mil. bu.) 2,105 2,105 2,135 2,115Export (mil. bu.) 1,775 1,770 1,895 1,800Seed and feed (mil. bu.) 128 128 132 134

Total Consumption (mil. bu.) 4,008 4,003 4,162 4,049

Ending stocks (mil. bu.) 475 383 533 609

Stocks-to-use 11.8% 9.6% 12.8% 15.0%

Average farm price ($/bu.) $9.00 $8.90 $8.85 $8.50

Marketing Year Soybean Basis - Central Illinois

-75

-70

-65

-60

-55

-50

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

6-S

ep

13-S

ep20

-Sep

27-S

ep4-

Oct

11-O

ct

18-O

ct

25-O

ct

1-N

ov

8-N

ov

15-N

ov

22-N

ov

29-N

ov

6-D

ec

13-D

ec20

-Dec

27-D

ec4-

Jan

11-J

an17

-Jan

24-J

an31

-Jan

7-F

eb

14-F

eb21

-Feb

28-F

eb7-

Ma

r14

-Mar

21-M

ar28

-Mar

4-A

pr

11-A

pr

18-A

pr

25-A

pr

2-M

ay

9-M

ay

16-M

ay23

-May

30-M

ay6-

Jun

13-J

un

20-J

un

27-J

un

5-Ju

l12

-Ju

l19

-Ju

l26

-Ju

l2-

Au

g9-

Au

g16

-Au

g23

-Au

g30

-Au

g

Cen

ts p

er

Bu

shel

2018-19

2019-20 3 Year Average

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• Questions?