REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL

1 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/

Economic Development

Region 5: North Central

Covering the following counties:

Cass, Crow Wing, Morrison,

Todd and Wadena

2019 REGIONAL PROFILE Updated September 20, 2019

Cameron Macht

Regional Analyst, Northwest Minnesota Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development

CareerForce Willmar 2200 23rd St. NE, Suite 2040

Willmar, MN 56201 Office: (320) 441-6596

E-mail: cameron.macht@state.mn.us Web: http://mn.gov/deed/data/

REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL

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DEMOGRAPHICS POPULATION CHANGE Economic Development Region 5-North Central (EDR 5-North Central) is a mostly rural, five-county region located in the middle of the state, just north of the St. Cloud Metro Area. EDR 5-North Central was the seventh largest of 13 economic development regions (EDRs) in the state, accounting for 3.0 percent of the state’s total population. It was also the second largest of the four EDR’s in Northwest Minnesota. The regional population increased by 1.8 percent, or nearly 3,000 residents, from 2010 to 2018, compared to a 5.8 percent rise statewide (Table 1).

Two of the five counties in EDR 5-North Central grew in population since 2010, with Cass County growing 3.3 percent with the addition of 952 residents and Crow Wing County adding 2,389 people, a 3.8 percent growth rate. Cass was the 26th fastest growing county and Crow Wing was the 22nd fastest. Meanwhile, Morrison County and Wadena County had slight population decreases since 2010, with the former losing 29 residents and the latter losing 70 people. Todd County declined by 1.3 percent with a decrease of 313 people.

COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE The recent population increase in EDR 4 was fueled primarily by a natural increase -more births than deaths - of 2,074 people from 2010 to 2018 with 15,946 births and 13,872 deaths. These increases were supplemented by net migration of 922 people with 389 international migrants and 533 domestic migrants (Table 2).

With the in-migration, Region 5 was now home to 2,520 foreign born residents, or 1.5 percent of the total population. The largest number of immigrants in the region came from Latin America, Asia, Europe, Canada, and Africa (Figure 1). However the fastest increase in immigrants came from Asia and Africa, which grew by 30 and 20 percent, respectively, since 2010. Based on year of entry, Region 5’s foreign born population was “older” than the rest of the state. About 34 percent of the region’s immigrants entered the U.S. before 1990, compared to just 21.6 percent statewide. The region had less foreign-born residents who entered since 2010 than statewide with only 13.2 percent compared to the state’s 21.5 percent. Foreign-born residents have a younger age profile than the native born population, with 55.2 percent being between 15 and 34 years of age, compared to 32 percent of the total population. While a similar percentage of foreign-born residents had a bachelor’s degree or higher than native born residents, immigrants were also much more likely to have less than a high school diploma.

Table 1. Population Change 2010-2018

2010 Population

2018 Estimates

2010-2018 Change

Number Percent

Region 5 163,003 165,932 +2,929 +1.8%

Cass Co. 28,567 29,519 +952 +3.3%

Crow Wing Co. 62,500 64,889 +2,389 +3.8%

Morrison Co. 33,198 33,169 -29 -0.1%

Todd Co. 24,895 24,582 -313 -1.3%

Wadena Co. 13,843 13,773 -70 -0.5%

Northwest Minnesota 553,805 568,702 +14,897 +2.7%

Region 1 86,091 84,969 -1,122 -1.3%

Region 2 83,023 86,266 +3,243 +3.9%

Region 4 221,688 231,535 +9,847 +4.4%

State of Minnesota 5,303,925 5,611,179 +307,254 +5.8% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Table 2. Estimates of the Components of Population Change, 2010-2018

Total Change

Natural Increase

Vital Events Net Migration

Births Deaths Total Inter-

national Domestic

Region 5 +2,919 +2,074 15,946 13,872 +922 +389 +533

Minnesota +307,254 +228,289 570,171 341,882 +81,671 +107,830 -26,159 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program

17%

23%

5%

1%

42%

12%

Figure 1. Place of Birth for the Foreign Born Population in Region 5, 2017

Europe

Asia

Africa

Oceania

Latin America

Northern America

REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL

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POPULATION BY AGE GROUP In EDR 5-North Central, over one-third (37.8%) of the regional population is over the age of 55, compared to 28.8 percent statewide. In contrast, EDR 5 had a smaller percentage of people in the 25 to 54 year age group – typically considered the “prime working years”. A large portion of the population is a part of the Baby Boom generation, which is creating a significant shift in regional demographics over time. Between 2000 and 2018, the region gained over 20,000 residents 55 years of age or older. Still, 18.8 percent of the population is under 14 years of age, a similar rate to the proportion statewide (Figure 2 and 3).

POPULATION PROJECTIONS BY AGE GROUP EDR 5-North Central is projected to continue its population increase in the near future. Population projections from the Minnesota State Demographic Center show that the area is expected to gain nearly 2,500 residents from 2020 to 2040, a 1.5 percent increase (see Figure 4). In comparison, the projected growth statewide from 2020 to 2040 is approximately 8.8 percent. Still, the projected population change varies by age. The region is expected to add residents between the ages of 25 and 54, and a corresponding increase in young children. Conversely, major losses are expected to occur in the age groups from 55 to 74 years, as the Baby Boom generation ages out of those cohorts. However, this will also lead to over 11,000 more residents aged 75 years and over, a 62.1 percent expansion.

163,892 164,723 166,300

6.0%

12.8%

10.6%

10.4%

10.8%

11.6%

15.6%

12.5%

6.9%

2.8%

6.4%

13.0%

12.9%

13.6%

12.5%

12.8%

13.4%

8.8%

4.4%

2.2%

Under 5 years

5-14 years

15-24 years

25-34 years

35-44 years

45-54 years

55-64 years

65-74 years

75-84 years

85 years & over

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Figure 2. Population by Age Group, 2018

Region 5 Minnesota

9,144

22,625

19,524

15,432

22,669

20,361

16,416

13,715

8,907

3,307

9,895

21,252

17,553

17,323

17,994

19,226

25,803

20,695

11,530

4,661

Under 5 years

5-14 years

15-24 years

25-34 years

35-44 years

45-54 years

55-64 years

65-74 years

75-84 years

85 years & over

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 3. Region 5 Population Pyramid, 2000-2018

2000 Population 2018 Estimate

7,959 9,304 10,439

19,823 16,103 19,623

21,940 22,332 19,015

15,553 20,445 21,284

16,986 14,787 20,025

17,337 16,149 14,266

23,886 16,517

15,702

22,125 23,077 16,308

14,107 19,849 21,013

4,176 6,160 8,625

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2020Projection

2030Projection

2040Projection

Tota

l Po

pu

lati

on

Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center

Figure 4. Region 5 Population Projections by Age Group, 2020-2040

Region 5

85 years &over75-84 years

65-74 years

55-64 years

45-54 years

35-44 years

25-34 years

15-24 years

5-14 years

Under 5years

REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL

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POPULATION BY RACE The population in EDR 5-North Central has had significant changes since the turn of the century, but remains less diverse than the state as a whole. In 2017, over 94 percent of the region’s residents reported white alone as their race, compared to 84.3 percent of residents statewide. However, every minority race increased faster than the white population from 2000 to 2017. In fact, the number of Black or African American residents nearly doubled since 2000, and those of Hispanic or Latino origin and Two or More Races increased by more than 125 percent (see Table 3).

Most of the regional diversity in EDR 5 is due to the sizable American Indian population. An estimated 4,306 residents in EDR 5 are American Indian or Alaskan Native. This was 2.6 percent of the regional population, two and a half time the statewide proportion.

EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT With 31.3 percent of adults aged 18 years and over holding a college degree, EDR 5 had lower educational attainment than the state in 2017, where 42.7 percent of adults have an associate, bachelor’s, or advanced degree. In contrast, the region had a higher percentage of people with some college but no degree, and a high school diploma or less. Regional education attainment only exceeded the state in associate’s degrees (Table 4). Educational attainment varies significantly by race and ethnicity in EDR 4-West Central. Around 40 percent of Hispanic or Latino residents and 20 percent of Black or African American had less than a high school diploma, compared to just 8.6 percent of White residents. However, over 30 percent of Black or African Americans, American Indians, and people of Two or More Races have attended some college or earned an associate’s degree. However 22.3 percent of Asian residents have a Bachelor’s degree or higher, a greater percentage than the White population (Figure 5).

Table 3. Race and Hispanic Origin, 2017

EDR 5 – North Central Minnesota

Number Percent Change

from 2000-2017

Percent Change

from 2000-2017

Total 163,244 100.0% +7.3% 100.0% +11.6%

White 153,655 94.1% +5.4% 83.7% +4.5%

Black or African American 976 0.6% +171.1% 6.0% +90.4%

American Indian & Alaska Native 4,306 2.6% +12.3% 1.0% +4.7%

Asian & Other Pacific Islander 795 0.5% +80.7% 4.7% +79.2%

Some Other Race 602 0.4% +46.5% 1.7% +45.3%

Two or More Races 2,910 1.8% +126.8% 2.8% +86.7%

Hispanic or Latino 3,594 2.2% +157.6% 5.2% +98.5% Source: 2013-2017 American Community Survey, 5-year estimates

Table 4. Educational Attainment for the Adult Population, 2017

EDR 5-North Central Minnesota

Number Percent Percent

Total, 18 years & over 126,147 100.0% 100.0%

Less than high school 12,149 9.6% 7.8%

High school grad. (incl. equiv.) 42,797 33.9% 25.6%

Some college, no degree 31,578 25.0% 23.8%

Associate's degree 15,956 12.6% 10.6%

Bachelor's degree 16,305 12.9% 21.7%

Advanced degree 7,362 5.8% 10.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-2017 American Community Survey

9.0%

8.6%

18.8%

14.8%

16.2%

55.3%

13.0%

42.7%

34.1%

34.3%

21.5%

31.2%

30.6%

25.6%

33.7%

23.6%

36.9%

36.8%

48.8%

43.3%

30.8%

18.0%

36.8%

25.5%

20.0%

20.3%

10.9%

10.7%

22.3%

1.1%

16.4%

8.3%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Total Population

White Alone

Black or African…

American Indian Alone

Asian Alone

Some Other Race Alone

Two or More Races

Hispanic or Latino

Source: 2013-2017 American Community Survey

Figure 5. Region 5 Educational Attainment for the population aged 25 years & over by Race or Origin, 2017

Less than high school diploma High school graduate (inc. equiv.)

Some college or associate's degree Bachelor's degree or higher

REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL

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LABOR FORCE

LABOR FORCE CHANGE According to data from DEED’s Local Area Unemployment Statistics program, EDR 5-North Central had an annual average labor force count of more than 83,600 workers through 2018. Despite some ups and downs, the regional labor force has increased since 2000, adding nearly 5,300 new workers since then. However, the labor force in EDR 5 has declined by nearly 1,400 workers since its peak in 2010 (Figure 6). The size of the labor force has fluctuated significantly since 2000, growing rapidly until 2004, before a slight decrease from 2005 to 2007. The recession led to another rapid increase, but those gains were quickly reversed by 2012 as the labor market dipped below pre-recession numbers. Since then, there have been steady gains, particularly since 2014, from which time the region’s labor market has increased every year.

After averaging a net gain of about 1,800 additional labor force participants per year between 1990 and 2000, Region 5 employers were able to tap into a large and growing pool of talented workers. However, from 2010 to 2018, Region 5’s labor force actually shrank, subtracting 174 of workers per year (Figure 7). Increasingly tight labor markets and a growing scarcity of workers is now recognized as one of Region 5’s most significant barriers to future economic growth. In the face of these constraints, it has become evident that a more diverse workforce in terms of age, gender, race, ethnicity, disability status, and immigration has been and will continue to be a vital source of the workers that employers need to succeed. As the white, native-born workforce continues to age, younger workers of different races or from different countries will comprise the fastest growing segment of the labor force.

Average of -174 new workers

per year

Average of 1,810 new workers per

year

Average of 668 new workers

per year

2,8

12

,94

7

3,0

70

,22

3

78,360

83,074

85,035

81,962

83,242

83,645

2,650,000

2,700,000

2,750,000

2,800,000

2,850,000

2,900,000

2,950,000

3,000,000

3,050,000

3,100,000

74,000

76,000

78,000

80,000

82,000

84,000

86,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Min

neso

ta La

bo

r Force

Loca

l La

bo

r Fo

rce

Source: DEED Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program

Figure 6. Annual Labor Force Estimates, 2000-2018

Minnesota Region 5

-3,000-2,000-1,000

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000

19

90

-19

91

19

91

-19

92

19

92

-19

93

19

93

-19

94

19

94

-19

95

19

95

-19

96

19

96

-19

97

19

97

-19

98

19

98

-19

99

19

99

-20

00

20

00

-20

01

20

01

-20

02

20

02

-20

03

20

03

-20

04

20

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05

20

05

-20

06

20

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-20

07

20

07

-20

08

20

08

-20

09

20

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10

20

10

-20

11

20

11

-20

12

20

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-20

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20

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-20

14

20

14

-20

15

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-20

16

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17

-20

18

Yea

r-O

ver-

Yea

r C

ha

ng

e in

Ava

ilab

le

Wo

rker

s

Source: DEED Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

Figure 7. Annual Change in Region 5 Labor Force, 1990-2018

REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL

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LABOR FORCE PROJECTIONS

Despite the projected population increase in EDR 5-North Central shown in Figure 4, the regional labor force is expected to contract some from 2020 to 2030. Applying current labor force participation rates to future population projections by age group creates labor force projections for the region, which show a 2.6 percent loss in workforce numbers, as more of the Baby Boom generation leaves the labor force. The projected decline estimates a loss in the number of teenaged and entry-level workers and workers aged 55 to 64 years by 2030, against smaller gains among those 65 years and over. However, the number of workers aged 20 to 44 years should increase by approximately 3,500 people. Being used to labor force growth, the anticipated contraction may lead employers to adapt their hiring and management practices in order to compete (Table 5).

EMPLOYMENT CHARACTERISTICS With 61.3 percent of the population 16 years of age and older in the labor force, EDR 5-North Central had a much lower labor force participation rate than the state overall. Every age group had lower labor force participation rates than those statewide except for the youngest age groups. In contrast, those 55 to 74 years of age had significantly lower participation rates in EDR 5 than statewide (Table 6).

Labor force participation rates vary by race in EDR 5, and lagged behind statewide rates. The labor force participation rate for Hispanic or Latino and Asians was greater than the participation rate for Whites. However, the unemployment rates for non-whites was greater in EDR 5 except for Black or African American and Asian.

There were 4,085 veterans and over 4,710 workers with disabilities in the regional labor force. In sum, unemployment rates were highest among young workers, American Indians, people of Some Other Race, and Hispanics or Latinos, and workers with disabilities.

Table 5. EDR 5-North Central Labor Force Projections

2020 Labor Force Projection

2030 Labor Force Projection

2020-2030 Change

Numeric Percent

16 to 19 years 4,766 4,338 -428 -9.0%

20 to 24 years 9,201 10,364 +1,163 +12.6%

25 to 44 years 28,065 30,388 +2,323 +8.3%

45 to 54 years 14,619 13,617 -1,002 -6.9%

55 to 64 years 15,496 10,715 -4,781 -30.9%

65 to 74 years 4,744 4,948 +204 +4.3%

75 years & over 1,100 1,565 +465 +42.3%

Total Labor Force 77,991 75,935 -2,056 -2.6% Source: calculated from Minnesota State Demographic Center population

projections and 2013-2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

Table 6. EDR 5-North Central Employment Characteristics, 2017 EDR 5 – North Central Minnesota

Age Group

Labor Force

Labor Force Partic. Rate

Unemp. Rate

Labor Force Partic. Rate

Unemp. Rate

Total Labor Force 79,806 61.3% 4.5% 69.9% 4.3%

16 to 19 years 3,952 54.1% 9.4% 52.6% 12.8%

20 to 24 years 7,027 84.2% 7.0% 84.2% 7.1%

25 to 44 years 29,708 86.3% 4.7% 88.4% 3.9%

45 to 54 years 18,008 84.3% 3.2% 87.2% 3.0%

55 to 64 years 16,078 64.9% 4.0% 72.5% 3.2%

65 to 74 years 4,125 21.4% 2.1% 27.4% 2.7%

75 years & over 890 6.0% 1.2% 6.1% 2.8%

Employment Characteristics by Gender

Male 42,145 64.6% 5.1% 73.7% 4.8%

Female 37,651 57.9% 3.4% 66.1% 3.8%

Employment Characteristics by Race & Hispanic Origin

White alone 76,087 61.3% 4.2% 69.7% 3.6%

Black or African American 432 57.9% 1.4% 69.8% 11.0%

American Indian & Alaska Native 1,665 58.2% 16.0% 58.6% 13.3%

Asian or Other Pacific Islanders 386 63.8% 2.6% 71.1% 5.2%

Some Other Race 264 58.8% 7.5% 77.2% 7.5%

Two or More Races 932 64.5% 6.8% 72.5% 9.1%

Hispanic or Latino 1,601 72.5% 5.6% 76.2% 7.2%

Employment Characteristics by Disability

With Any Disability 4,710 47.1% 8.3% 52.3% 9.5%

Employment Characteristics by Educational Attainment

Population 25 to 64 years 63,809 79.2% 4.2% 84.1% 3.5%

Less than H.S. Diploma 3,837 65.9% 5.3% 65.4% 4.9%

H.S. Diploma or Equivalent 18,694 74.8% 2.4% 78.7% 2.9%

Some College or Assoc. Degree 27,378 81.8% 3.4% 85.2% 3.5%

Bachelor's Degree or Higher 13,892 85.2% 2.3% 89.6% 2.1%

Source: 2013-2017 American Community Survey, 5-Year Estimates

REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL

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UNEMPLOYMENT RATES Regardless of the state of the economy, EDR 5-North Central has consistently reported higher unemployment rates than Minnesota overall since 2000. According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics program, the unemployment rate in EDR 5 consistently hovers one or two percent above the statewide rate, shifting in sync with economic fluctuations. During the recession, the region’s rate rose as high as 10.1 percent in 2009, but fell back to prerecession rates by 2015. Since then, the regional rate dropped to 4.4 percent in 2018 (Figure 8).

JOBSEEKERS PER VACANCY As the number of available workers has declined and the economy continues to recover, the region’s labor market has tightened. One clear demonstration of this is the ratio of unemployed jobseekers per vacancy, which now stands at 1.3-to-1 in Region 5. According to recent job vacancy survey results, there were 2,692 openings reported by employers compared to 3,499 unemployed jobseekers in the region. The ratio climbed as high as 15.3 during the recession in 2009 (Figure 9).

COMMUTE SHED AND LABOR SHED According to commuting data from the U.S. Census Bureau, nearly two-thirds of workers who live in the region also work within the region. However, EDR 5 is a net exporter of labor, having fewer jobs than available workers. In 2017, 51,369 workers both lived and worked in EDR 5, while another 16,241 workers drove into the region for work. This is compared to 29,903 workers who lived in the region but drove to outside areas for work (Table 7 and Figure 10).

Table 7. EDR 5-North Central Inflow/ Outflow Job Counts (All Jobs), 2017

2017

Count Share

Employed in the Selection Area 67,610 100.0%

Employed in the Selection Area but Living Outside 16,241 24.0%

Employed and Living in the Selection Area 51,369 76.0%

Living in the Selection Area 81,272 100.0%

Living in the Selection Area but Employed Outside 29,903 36.8%

Living and Employed in the Selection Area 51,369 63.2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap

3.2 3.8 4.5 4.9 4.7 4.1 4.0 4.6 5.4 7.8 7.4 6.5 5.6 5.0 4.2 3.7 3.9 3.4 2.9

4.55.0

5.56.0 5.8

5.4 5.56.1

7.4

10.19.5

8.6

7.56.9

6.05.4 5.5

4.84.4

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

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20

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20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

Un

emp

loym

ent

Ra

te

Source: DEED Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program

Figure 8. Unemployment Rates, 2000-2018Minnesota Region 5

514

2,692

7,873

3,499

12.1

15.3

9.3

7.6

4.43.7

1.52.2 2.0 1.5 1.3

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

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18.0

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Q42008

Q42009

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

Q42017

Q42018

Job

seekers Per V

aca

ncy

Nu

mb

er o

f U

nem

plo

yed

& V

aca

nci

es

Source: DEED Job Vacancy Survey, LAUS program

Figure 9. Jobseekers Per Vacancy, 2008-2018

Region 5 Vacancies

Region 5 Unemployed

Jobseekers per Vacancy

REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL

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Figure 10. EDR 5-North Central Labor and Commute Shed, 2017

Crow Wing County is easily the largest employment center in the region and the biggest draw for workers, followed by Morrison and Cass counties. Employers in the region draw workers from surrounding counties like Otter Tail, Beltrami, Hubbard, Stearns, and Itasca. Local workers also travel to these same counties for work, as well as other surrounding counties like Benton, Mille Lacs and Aitkin (Figure 10). The average commute time for workers the region was 23.3 minutes, similar to 23.4 minutes for workers statewide. About 53 percent of workers commuted less than 20 minutes each way, compared to 46.5 percent statewide. About 6.3 percent of workers

worked at home, and 2.6 percent were able to walk to work. About half (51.1%) of workers left home between 6:00 a.m. and 8:00 a.m.

INCOMES, WAGES AND OCCUPATIONS HOUSEHOLD INCOMES Household incomes were significantly lower in EDR 5 than the rest of the state. The median household income in West Central was $51,265 in 2017, compared to $65,699 in Minnesota. Less than half (48.8%) of the households in the region had incomes below $50,000 in 2017, compared to 37.8 percent of households statewide. Only 6.1 percent of households had incomes greater than $150,000 in the region (Figure 11).

Median household incomes varied by race or origin in the region. American Indian households reported the lowest incomes in Region 5, with a median income that was nearly $20,000 lower than for White households. Black or African American households also reported much lower median incomes. Meanwhile, Hispanic or Latino and Two or More households reported similar median income as White households. Lastly, Asian households reported greater median incomes than White households (Figure 12).

22.8%

17.0%

26.0%

20.8%

20.9%

18.5%

12.7%

14.0%

11.5%

16.6%

6.1

%

13.1%

Region 5

Minnesota

Source: 2013-2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate

Figure 11. Household Incomes, 2017

Less than $25,000 $25,000-$49,999 $50,000-$74,999

$75,000-$99,999 $100,00-$149,999 $150,000 or more

$52,009

$35,428

$32,877

$64,177

$43,221

$51,594

$50,000

$0 $50,000 $100,000

White Alone

Black or African American Alone

American Indian Alone

Asian Alone

Some Other Race Alone

Two or More Races

Hispanic or Latino

Source: 2013-2017 American Community Survey

Figure 12. EDR 5-North Central Median Household Income by Race, 2017

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap

REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL

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COST OF LIVING According to DEED’s Cost of Living tool, the basic needs budget for an average Minnesota family (which consists of 2 adults and 1 child, with 1 full-time and 1 part-time worker) was $55,548 in 2018. The cost of living for a similar family in EDR 5 was $48,324 – which was the sixth highest of the 13 economic development regions in the state. The highest monthly costs were for transportation, food, and housing; though the region’s housing, child care, and taxes were significantly lower than the rest of the state. In order to meet the basic needs cost of living for the region, the two workers in the family scenario described would need to earn $15.49 per hour working a combined 60 hours per week. DEED’s Cost of Living tool provides different estimates for household compositions including single people, partnered couples, and up to 4 children. For a single person living alone and working full-time, the estimated yearly cost in EDR 5 would be $28,524, which would require an hourly wage of $13.71 to meet the basic needs standard of living (Table 8).

Overall, Region 5’s poverty rate was 11.9 percent, which was higher than the statewide rate of 10.5 percent. Like incomes, poverty levels varied widely by race and origin. It was estimated that over 52 percent of the region’s Black or African American population was below the poverty level in 2017, compared to just 10.6 percent of the White population. Likewise, poverty levels hovered around 30 percent for American Indians and Two or More Races. Nearly 20 percent of people of Asian and Hispanic or Latino origin also were below the poverty level in 2017. In almost all cases, the region’s poverty rate was higher than the state’s poverty rate, except for Some Other Race and Hispanic or Latinos (Figure 13).

Table 8. Family Yearly Cost, Worker Hourly Wage, and Family Monthly Costs, 2018

Family Composition

Number of

Workers

Yearly Cost of Living

Hourly Wage

Required

Monthly Costs

Child Care

Food Health Care

Housing Trans-

portation Other Taxes

EDR 5-North Central Single, 0 children 1 FT $28,524 $13.71 $0 $327 $138 $565 $724 $274 $349

Single, 1 child 1 FT $42,720 $20.54 $512 $483 $338 $760 $729 $381 $357

2 parents, 1 child 1 FT, 1 PT $48,324 $15.49 $256 $747 $496 $760 $847 $463 $458

2 parents, 2 children 2 FT $66,156 $15.90 $878 $975 $504 $971 $895 $597 $693

State of Minnesota

Single, 0 children 1 FT $30,900 $14.86 $0 $335 $137 $759 $629 $336 $379

2 parents, 1 child 1 FT, 1 PT $55,548 $17.80 $511 $764 $484 $986 $729 $537 $618 Source: DEED Cost of Living tool

10

.6%

52

.6%

37

.2%

20

.9% 12

.4%

30

.5%

16

.5%7

.9%

31

.9%

31

.5%

15

.4%

23

.4%

18

.3%

20

.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Whitealone

Black orAfrican

American

AmericanIndian &AlaskaNative

Asian orOther Pac.Islanders

Some OtherRace

Two orMore Races

Hispanic orLatino

Ave

rage

Po

vert

y R

ate

Source: 2013-2017 American Community Survey

Figure 13. Percent Below the Poverty Level by Race or Origin, 2017Region 5 Minnesota

REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL

10 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/

WAGES AND OCCUPATIONS According to DEED’s Occupational Employment Statistics program, the median hourly wage for all occupations in Region 5 was $17.28 in the first quarter of 2019. North Central’s median wage was $3.67 below the state’s median hourly wage, equaling 82.5 percent of the statewide wage rate, and $5.50 below the median hourly wage in the Twin Cities metro area, which would amount to over $11,000 per year for a full-time worker (Table 9). Based on location quotient, Region 5 stands out for having higher concentrations of education, training, and library, healthcare support, community and social service, and farming, fishing and forestry workers than the state. The largest occupations in the region include office and administrative support, education, training, and library, production, and sales and related. Not surprisingly, the lowest-paying jobs are concentrated in food prep and serving, building, grounds cleaning and maintenance, sales and related, personal care and service, and healthcare support, which tend to have lower educational and training requirements. For the most part, the gap in pay between Region 5 and the state is also much lower in these jobs (Table 10).

Table 9. Occupational Employment Statistics by Region, 1st Qtr. 2019

Median Hourly Wage

Estimated Regional

Employment

Region 1 – Northwest $19.26 39,880

Region 2 – Headwaters $17.63 32,590

Region 3 – Arrowhead $18.57 144,430

Region 4 – West Central $18.28 89,170

Region 5 – North Central $17.28 62,180

Region 6E – SW Central $18.15 52,370

Region 6W – Upper MN Valley $18.01 17,080

Region 7E – East Central $19.30 45,270

Region 7W – Central $19.10 188,620

Region 8 – Southwest $17.66 55,840

Region 9 – South Central $18.24 103,510

Region 10 – Southeast $19.28 241,540

Region 11 – Twin Cities $22.78 1,793,870

State of Minnesota $20.95 2,867,700 Source: DEED Occupational Employment Statistics

Table 10. EDR 5-North Central Occupational Employment Statistics, 1st Qtr. 2019 Region 5-North Central State of Minnesota

Median Hourly Wage

Estimated Regional

Employment

Share of Total

Employment

Location Quotient

Median Hourly Wage

Estimated Regional

Employment

Share of Total

Employment

Total, All Occupations $17.28 62,180 100.0% 1.0 $20.95 2,867,700 100.0%

Office & Administrative Support $16.46 9,070 14.6% 0.9 $19.10 405,970 14.2%

Education, Training & Library $21.48 6,300 10.1% 2.0 $11.90 242,170 8.4%

Production $16.43 6,280 10.1% 1.4 $14.97 277,070 9.7%

Sales & Related $12.55 6,030 9.7% 0.9 $35.79 190,720 6.7%

Healthcare Practitioners & Technical $31.14 4,440 7.1% 0.9 $24.22 166,300 5.8%

Food Preparation & Serving Related $12.07 3,450 5.5% 0.9 $12.90 144,070 5.0%

Transportation & Material Moving $17.59 3,300 5.3% 0.6 $18.68 214,230 7.5%

Personal Care & Service $12.27 2,990 4.8% 0.8 $51.26 171,250 6.0%

Healthcare Support $15.66 2,800 4.5% 0.9 $18.48 177,580 6.2%

Management $38.61 2,620 4.2% 1.4 $23.13 100,030 3.5%

Building, Grounds Cleaning & Maint. $13.47 2,570 4.1% 1.3 $16.82 83,380 2.9%

Construction & Extraction $21.24 2,500 4.0% 1.1 $28.07 100,510 3.5%

Installation, Maintenance & Repair $20.34 2,210 3.6% 1.1 $14.97 85,820 3.0%

Business & Financial Operations $27.87 1,970 3.2% 0.5 $22.73 57,870 2.0%

Community & Social Service $21.75 1,750 2.8% 1.5 $33.03 164,510 5.7%

Protective Service $23.59 1,320 2.1% 1.6 $21.52 44,390 1.5%

Architecture & Engineering $30.82 760 1.2% 1.0 $37.53 56,070 2.0%

Computer & Mathematical $30.76 610 1.0% 0.4 $40.96 96,020 3.3%

Life, Physical & Social Science $28.70 470 0.8% 0.6 $33.54 26,210 0.9%

Arts, Design, Entertainment & Media $17.42 410 0.7% 0.8 $24.35 39,670 1.4%

Legal $25.95 220 0.4% 2.9 $36.50 19,870 0.7%

Farming, Fishing & Forestry $16.93 120 0.2% 0.5 $16.51 3,980 0.1% Source: DEED Occupational Employment Statistics, Qtr. 1 2019

REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL

11 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/

In contrast, the highest paying jobs are found in management, legal, architecture and engineering, computer and mathematical, healthcare practitioners, business and financial operations, and life, physical, and social science occupations, which all need higher levels of education and experience, including many that require postsecondary training. The pay gaps between the region and state are much bigger in these occupations often exceeding $5.00 per hour – or $10,000 per year for a full-time worker.

JOB VACANCY SURVEY Employers in EDR 5-North Central reported 2,692 job vacancies in the fourth quarter of 2018, slightly higher to the number of vacancies posted over the past fourth quarter surveys, but down from the peak of 2,833 vacancies reported in the fourth quarter of 2014. Demand for workers was high across all industries, with the largest number of openings in retail trade (1,047 job vacancies), health care and social assistance (626 job vacancies), manufacturing (232 job vacancies), educational services (176 job vacancies), and accommodation and food services (165 job vacancies). With job vacancy increases, wages have risen with the median hourly wage offer from the current survey jumping to $14.67 per hour, which was the highest wage offer in the history of the job vacancy survey. Wage offers ranged from just over $10 per hour for personal care and food preparation and serving occupations to over $25 per hour for healthcare practitioners, management, and community and social service occupations.

The largest number of vacancies were in sales and related, food preparation and serving related, healthcare practitioners, transportation and material mover, and production. Overall, 37 percent of the openings were part-time, 25 percent required post-secondary education, and 39 percent required 1 or more years of experience (Table 11). In sum, educational requirements in the region had been stable or declining over the past 5 years, while work experience requirements were relatively stable.

Table 11. EDR 5-North Central Job Vacancy Survey Results, 4th Qtr. 2018

Number of

Total Vacancies

Percent Part-time

Percent Temporary or Seasonal

Requiring Post-

Secondary Education

Requiring 1 or More Years of

Experience

Requiring Certificate or License

Median Hourly Wage Offer

Total, All Occupations 2,692 37% 9% 25% 39% 31% $14.67

Sales & Related 754 34% 0% 1% 34% 12% $12.89

Food Preparation & Serving Related 371 41% 19% 1% 12% 2% $11.83

Healthcare Practitioners & Technical 208 54% 2% 92% 30% 97% $25.31

Transportation & Material Moving 186 54% 31% 44% 52% 76% $17.23

Production 163 0% 10% 9% 26% 11% $13.42

Management 153 0% 0% 24% 100% 7% $24.69

Healthcare Support 128 76% 0% 13% 12% 86% $13.28

Business & Financial Operations 124 66% 0% 33% 34% 4% $16.38

Community & Social Service 124 9% 1% 84% 94% 90% $22.69

Personal Care & Service 109 69% 6% 6% 19% 31% $11.88

Building, Grounds Cleaning & Maint. 80 53% 47% 3% 32% 4% $11.96

Education, Training & Library 70 53% 53% 89% 60% 85% $12.52

Office & Administrative Support 69 16% 1% 33% 33% 21% $14.63

Construction & Extraction 55 0% 0% 4% 76% 2% $14.97

Architecture & Engineering 24 0% 0% 78% 48% 8% $21.29

Protective Service 22 18% 0% 54% 55% 67% $17.62 Source: DEED Job Vacancy Survey, 4th Qtr. 2018

REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL

12 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/

EDUCATIONAL REQUIREMENTS Despite the recent job vacancy data, DEED’s Occupational Employment Statistics program shows that only around one-third of current jobs held in the region require post-secondary education to enter. The other two-thirds require no more than a high school diploma, and sometimes less. However, some amount of on-the-job training is often needed (Figure 14).

Certain careers – such as dentists, lawyers, and teachers – require a college education, while other jobs – including cost estimators, sales representatives, and correctional officers – do not. College is an excellent way to move up career ladders and open windows of opportunity to fields that would otherwise be closed, such as nursing or engineering. Many of these occupations offer high wages and are in high demand in the marketplace. While education is typically a worthwhile investment, college can be expensive – with average annual expenses ranging between $14,500 and almost $50,000 per year in Minnesota. For those who go to college, choice of major matters – different programs lead to different jobs that earn different amounts of money.

EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS Overall, the Northwest Planning Region is projected to grow 4.2 percent from 2016 to 2026, a gain of 10,961 new jobs. In addition, the region is also expected to need 130,759 replacement openings to fill jobs left vacant by retirements and other career changers. Production, personal care and service, construction and extraction, healthcare support, healthcare practitioners, and building, grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations are expected to see the most new growth. Arts, design, entertainment and media, sales and related, and office and administrative support occupations are expected to decline but every occupational group will show some future demand through replacement openings (Figure 15).

Source: DEED Occupational Employment Statistics

66.7%of jobs

7.8%

5.1%

14.7%

2.9

%2

.8%

36,730jobs

4,320

2,810

8,110

1,5

70

1,5

20

Figure 14. Region 5 Share of Jobs by Educational Requirements, 2019

High SchoolDiploma orLessVocationalAward

AssociateDegree

Bachelor'sDegree

GraduateDegree

No ClearEducationalAssignment

692

695

416

359

102

390

6

113

-1

877

960

129

161

761

1,251-70

-337

576

1,060

861

1,328

632

10,718

2,643

576

845

460

2,593

334

7,244

1,569

4,019

5,073

1,923

15,261

6,371

11,062

16,033

17,101

1,403

4,612

3,626

8,926

8,367

-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

Management

Business & Financial Operations

Computer & Mathematical

Architecture & Engineering

Life, Physical, & Social Science

Community & Social Service

Legal

Education, Training, & Library

Arts, Design, Entertainment & Media

Healthcare Practitioners & Technical

Healthcare Support

Protective Service

Food Preparation & Serving Related

Building, Grounds Cleaning & Maint.

Personal Care & Service

Sales & Related

Office & Administrative Support

Farming, Fishing, & Forestry

Construction & Extraction

Installation, Maintenance, & Repair

Production

Transportation & Material MovingSource: DEED 2016-2026 Employment Outlook

Figure 15. Northwest Planning Region Employment Projections, 2016-2026 From employment growth From exit openings

REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL

13 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/

OCCUPATIONS IN DEMAND According to DEED’s Occupations in Demand tool, there are nearly 500 occupations in demand (OID) in Region 5, and nearly 300 occupations are showing relatively high demand. Training and education requirements of these occupations range from short-term on-the-job training to postsecondary education and advanced degrees. Most OID require a high school diploma or less, and less than one-third require a bachelor’s degree or higher. While OID exist in every sector, the region’s major industries are well represented as many of the jobs are concentrated in health care, education, transportation, retail sales and other related industries (Table 12).

Table 12. 2019 Occupations in Demand by Education Level, EDR 5-North Central Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College or Assoc. Degree Bachelor’s Degree or Higher

Cashiers ($23,786)

Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers ($43,420)

Registered Nurses ($72,740)

Secondary School Teachers ($58,240)

Personal Care Aides ($25,859)

First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers ($38,753)

Nursing Assistants ($33,025)

Physical Therapists ($86,468)

Retail Salespersons ($26,276)

First-Line Supervisors of Food Prep & Serv. Workers ($33,190)

Licensed Practical & Licensed Vocational Nurses ($44,340)

Software Developers, Applications ($82,009)

Combined Food Prep. & Serving ($23,717)

Teacher Assistants ($30,528)

Electricians ($54,844)

Speech-Language Pathologists ($64,692)

Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners ($27,599)

Maintenance & Repair Workers, General ($39,560)

Heating, Air Cond. (HVAC) & Refrig. Mechanics ($49,128)

Child, Family, & School Social Workers ($52,059)

Janitors & Cleaners ($29,961)

Secretaries & Administrative Assistants ($37,053)

Automotive Service Technicians & Mechanics ($49,128)

Financial Managers ($92,497)

Cooks, Restaurant ($27,757)

Computer-Controlled Machine Tool Operators, Metal ($37,226)

Radiologic Technologists ($63,730)

Market Research Analysts & Marketing Spec. ($55,481)

Laborers & Freight, Stock & Material ($31,939)

Sales Rep. Wholesale & Manufacturing ($52,984)

Clinical Laboratory Techs & Technicians ($54,492)

Family & General Practitioners ($205,245)

Waiters & Waitresses ($22,570)

Welders, Cutters, Solderers, & Brazers ($41,694)

Medical Records & Health Information Techs ($45,171)

Industrial Engineers ($78,049)

Construction Laborers ($35,085)

Drivers/ Sales Workers ($34,851)

Dental Assistants ($44,030)

Human Resources Specialists ($54,389)

Source: DEED Occupations in Demand

ECONOMY INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT According to DEED’s Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW) program, Region 5 was home to 5,034 business establishments providing 62,958 covered jobs through 2018, with a total payroll that exceeded $2.4 billion. That was 2.2 percent of total employment in the state of Minnesota. Average annual wages were $38,534 in the region, which was about $19,500 lower than the average annual wage statewide (Table 13).

Table 13. EDR 5-North Central Industry Employment, 2018 Average Annual Wage

2013-2018 2017-2018

Geography Number of Firms

Number of Jobs Total Payroll

Change in Jobs

Percent Change

Change in Jobs

Percent Change

EDR 5-North Central 5,034 62,958 $2,426,037,420 $38,534 +2,967 +4.9% +290 +0.5%

Cass Co. 898 10,445 $345,463,188 $33,075 +662 +6.8% +80 +0.8%

Crow Wing Co. 2,169 29,750 $1,202,370,833 $40,416 +2,051 +7.4% +140 +0.5%

Morrison Co. 973 10,802 $403,593,146 $37,363 -24 -0.2% -22 -0.2%

Todd Co. 577 6,440 $262,316,370 $40,732 +464 +7.8% -23 -0.4%

Wadena Co. 418 5,521 $212,293,883 $38,452 -185 -3.2% +115 +2.1%

State of Minnesota 175,424 2,881,172 $167,122,456,472 $58,005 +189,002 +7.0% +27,207 +1.0%

Source: DEED Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW)

REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL

14 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/

In terms of employment, Crow Wing County is the largest economic center in EDR 5 with 29,750 jobs at 2,169 firms. Since 2013, 2,051 jobs were added in Crow Wing County, which accounted for almost three quarters of total regional growth in that time. Cass County also saw strong job growth in the past 5 years. Wadena County has the smallest economy with 5,251 jobs, after gaining 115 jobs in the last year. Morrison County lost 22 jobs from 2017 to 2018, a 0.2 percent decrease and Todd County lost 23 employees but employers there reported the highest average annual wages last year in the region. EDR 5 gained employment over the past decade overall, but experienced significant swings in employment during the recession and recovery. For the most part, regional employment followed statewide trends, except for 2012, when the recovery in EDR 5 had a setback. As such, the region did not fully recover all of the jobs lost during the recession until 2017, four years later than the state as a whole. However, employment in EDR 5 has increased 4.9 percent since 2013, compared to 7.0 percent growth statewide (Figure 16).

With 11,256 jobs at 480 establishments, the health care and social assistance industry employs the most workers in EDR 5-North Central. After adding 586 jobs the last five years, the industry accounted for 17.9 percent of total regional jobs in 2018. Reflecting the region’s aging population, hospitals and nursing and residential care facilities were the largest employing sectors; while ambulatory health care services and social assistance were seeing the largest job growth from 2013 to 2018.

The next largest industry in EDR 5 is retail trade, which also experienced large job gains in recent years after falling during the recession. Retail trade added over 650 jobs since 2013, and 170 jobs in 2018 alone; but still has not regained pre-recession employment levels after peaking at 9,438 jobs in 2006. Overall, retail trade still accounted for 8,896 jobs in the region at 742 stores in 2018. The closely related accommodation and food services industry also provided 7,443 jobs at 510 establishments, after gaining 296 jobs since 2013. Combined, these two industries account for more than 25 percent of total employment in the region, but offer relatively low average annual wages, at $27,353 and $17,957, respectively.

Other important industries in EDR 4 include manufacturing, educational services, public administration, and construction which combined for more than 21,000 jobs, or 33.5 percent of total jobs. Fourteen of 20 regional industries added jobs since 2013, led by huge gains in retail trade, health care and social assistance, manufacturing, construction, and educational services. Growth was more scattered in the past year, with 13 of the 20 industries seeing job declines since 2017 (Table 14).

60,049

62,19161,803

59,67659,795

59,055

59,99160,543

61,103

61,837

62,66862,958

2,578,050

2,680,530

2,563,391

2,644,935

2,692,170

2,881,172

2,400,000

2,500,000

2,600,000

2,700,000

2,800,000

2,900,000

3,000,000

57,000

58,000

59,000

60,000

61,000

62,000

63,000

64,000

2003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018

Statew

ide Jo

bs

Loca

l Jo

bs

Source: DEED QCEW program

Figure 16. Industry Employment Statistics, 2003-2018Region 5 Minnesota

REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL

15 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/

Table 14. EDR 5-North Central Industry Employment Statistics, 2018 Region 5 2018 Annual Data 2013-2018 2017-2018

NAICS Industry Title Number of Firms

Number of Jobs

Total Payroll

($1,000s)

Avg. Annual Wage

Change in Jobs

Percent Change

Change in Jobs

Percent Change

Total, All Industries 5,034 62,958 $2,426,037 $38,534 +2,967 +4.9% +290 +0.5%

Health Care & Social Assistance 480 11,256 $520,832 $46,272 +586 +5.5% +194 +1.8%

Retail Trade 742 8,896 $243,336 $27,353 +670 +8.1% +170 +1.9%

Accommodation & Food Services 510 7,443 $133,654 $17,957 +296 +4.1% -199 -2.6%

Manufacturing 290 6,605 $316,764 $47,958 +550 +9.1% +186 +2.9%

Educational Services 107 6,073 $237,597 $39,123 +397 +7.0% +150 +2.5%

Public Administration 199 5,022 $232,881 $46,372 +126 +2.6% +195 +4.0%

Construction 638 3,361 $177,990 $52,957 +462 +15.9% -146 -4.2%

Finance & Insurance 230 2,089 $117,121 $56,065 +138 +7.1% -9 -0.4%

Other Services 503 1,925 $42,173 $21,908 +119 +6.6% -2 -0.1%

Professional & Technical Services 248 1,674 $90,753 $54,213 -26 -1.5% -92 -5.2%

Wholesale Trade 142 1,619 $74,438 $45,978 -213 -11.6% -34 -2.1%

Admin. Support & Waste Mgmt. Svcs. 224 1,554 $48,649 $31,306 -54 -3.4% -76 -4.7%

Transportation & Warehousing 222 1,551 $57,060 $36,789 +45 +3.0% -10 -0.6%

Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 113 1,222 $25,242 $20,657 -59 -4.6% -16 -1.3%

Agriculture, Forestry, Fish & Hunt 126 802 $25,436 $31,715 +40 +5.2% -42 -5.0%

Information 64 732 $31,955 $43,655 -153 -17.3% -40 -5.2%

Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 155 650 $17,937 $27,596 +4 +0.6% -37 -5.4%

Utilities 15 238 $21,136 $88,806 +2 +0.8% +14 +6.3%

Management of Companies 21 214 $9,600 $44,861 +50 +30.5% +86 +67.2%

Mining 8 16 $111 $6,927 -19 -54.3% -13 -44.8%

Source: DEED Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages (QCEW) program

INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT According to DEED’s Quarterly Employment Demographics (QED) program, the workforce in the region was aging over the past 10 years. Nearly one-quarter (24.5%) of workers in the region were 55 years or older, compared to 21.5 percent statewide and just 18.3 percent in the region one decade earlier. In contrast, the percentage of teenaged workers was falling and wages were going up for younger workers (Table 15). As noted above, wages were climbing across the board for all workers due to rising demand and a tight labor market. While wages were still lowest for the youngest and oldest workers who tend to fill lower-skilled, less-than-fulltime jobs in industries like retail trade and accommodation and food services, these two age groups enjoyed the fastest percentage increase in wages from 2008 to 2018. Wages were highest for workers between 45 and 64 years of age, and males worked more hours than females, though the gap was narrowing.

Table 15. Workforce Demographics by Age Group and Gender, Total of All Industries, 2008-2018

EDR 5-North Central

Percentage of Workers

Percent of Workers, Minnesota

Median Hourly Wage

Median Hours Worked (Per Qtr.)

2018 2008 2018 2008 2018 2008 2018 2008

Total, all ages 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% $16.85 $13.14 405 398

19 years & under 7.4% 9.6% 6.1% 7.5% $10.61 $7.38 118 121

20 to 24 years 9.4% 10.3% 10.3% 11.6% $13.95 $10.04 287 279

25 to 44 years 39.6% 39.0% 42.9% 42.7% $18.73 $14.90 456 460

45 to 54 years 19.1% 22.8% 19.1% 22.5% $20.25 $15.89 480 480

55 to 64 years 18.1% 14.0% 16.7% 12.6% $18.98 $15.02 463 440

65 years & over 6.4% 4.3% 4.8% 3.1% $14.34 $10.73 197 174

Male 46.1% 45.9% 49.1% 49.0% $18.51 $14.98 461 463

Female 53.9% 54.1% 50.9% 51.0% $16.14 $12.03 377 352

Source: DEED Quarterly Employment Demographics

REGIONAL PROFILE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT REGION 5: NORTH CENTRAL

16 DEED Labor Market Information Office | Regional Analysis & Outreach | mn.gov/deed/data/

INDUSTRY PROJECTIONS The 26-county Northwest Planning Area is projected to grow 4.2 percent from 2016 to 2026, a gain of 10,961 new jobs. The largest and fastest growing industry is expected to be health care and social assistance, which may account for one-third of the total projected growth in the region by 2026. The region is also expected to see significant employment growth in manufacturing, administrative and waste services, agriculture and forestry, wholesale trade, and construction. In contrast, retail trade is expected to cut 1,168 jobs in the next decade, and educational services will also see cuts (Table 16).

NONEMPLOYER ESTABLISHMENTS Region 5 was home to 13,019 self-employed businesses or “nonemployers” in 2017, which are defined by the U.S. Census Bureau as “businesses without paid employees that are subject to federal income tax, originating from tax return information of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).” Unlike covered employment, Region 5 saw a steady decrease in nonemployers over the past decade, responding to economic changes. In sum, the region lost 547 nonemployers from 2007 to 2017, a 4.0 percent decrease. Crow Wing County had the most nonemployers in 2017 and in total, these non-employers generated sales receipts of over $620 million in 2017 (Table 17).

CENSUS OF AGRICULTURE Unlike other parts of Greater Minnesota, agriculture is not a key industry in Region 5, but there are 4,806 farms producing just over $672 million in the market value of products sold in 2017 according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. With the exception of Morrison County, which ranked 12th in the state for the market value of products sold, and Todd County, which was just outside of the top half of the state by ranking 52rd of 87 counties, the rest of the counties in the region rank near the bottom in Minnesota in regards to the market value of products sold (Table 18). Region 5 has had a 15.0 percent decline in market value over the past 5 years.

Table 16. Northwest Industry Projections, 2016-2026

Industry

Estimated Employment

2016

Projected Employment

2026

Percent Change

2016-2026

Numeric Change

2016-2026

Total, All Industries 262,786 273,747 +4.2% +10,961

Health Care & Social Assistance 36,018 39,725 +10.3% +3,707

Manufacturing 28,471 30,356 +6.6% +1,885

Retail Trade 28,429 27,261 -4.1% -1,168

Educational Services 23,095 22,758 -1.5% -337

Public Administration 21,609 22,418 +3.7% +809

Accommodation & Food Services 20,621 21,205 +2.8% +584

Wholesale Trade 11,833 13,030 +10.1% +1,197

Construction 10,252 11,287 +10.1% +1,035

Other Services, Ex. Public Admin 10,328 10,314 -0.1% -14

Transportation & Warehousing 7,030 7,246 +3.1% +216

Agriculture, Forestry, Fish & Hunt 5,949 7,221 +21.4% +1,272

Administrative & Waste Services 5,031 6,427 +27.7% +1,396

Finance & Insurance 5,939 6,105 +2.8% +166

Professional & Technical Services 4,723 5,075 +7.5% +352

Arts, Entertainment, & Recreation 5,001 5,001 +0.0% +0

Information 2,660 2,599 -2.3% -61

Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 1,396 1,448 +3.7% +52

Utilities 1,193 1,146 -3.9% -47

Management of Companies 930 970 +4.3% +40

Mining 255 253 -0.8% -2

Source: DEED 2016-2026 Employment Outlook

Table 17. Nonemployer Statistics, 2017

2017 2007-2017

Number of Firms

Receipts ($1,000s)

Change in Firms

Percent Change

EDR 5 13,019 $620,941 -547 -4.0%

Cass Co. 2,622 $126,511 -264 -9.1%

Crow Wing Co. 5,247 $253,724 -66 -1.2%

Morrison Co. 2,406 $115,443 -82 -3.3%

Todd Co 1,700 $80,744 -12 -0.7%

Wadena Co. 1,044 $44,519 -123 -10.5%

Minnesota 409,860 $19,370,490 +22,876 +5.9%

Source: U.S. Census, Nonemployer Statistics program

Table 18. Census of Agriculture, 2017 State Rank

Number of Farms

Market Value of Products Sold

EDR 5 4,806 $672,544,000 9

Cass Co. 432 $26,464,000 76

Crow Wing Co. 494 $19,054,000 78

Morrrison Co. 1,760 $394,721,000 12

Todd Co. 1,604 $179,461,000 52

Wadena Co. 516 $52,844,000 68

Minnesota 68,822 $18,395,390,000

Source: 2017 Census of Agriculture

Upon request, this information can be made available in alternate formats for people with disabilities by contacting Cameron Macht at (320) 441-6596 or at cameron.macht@state.mn.us.