22 january 2021 results review 3qfy21 bajaj auto auto - 3qfy21...22 january 2021 results review...

8
22 January 2021 Results Review 3QFY21 Bajaj Auto HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters A strong show, encouraging outlook Bajaj Auto’s 3QFY21 PAT (+24/37% YoY/QoQ) beat was driven by strong profitability (EBITDA margin came in at 19.4%, +150/170bps YoY/QoQ). We have recently upgraded the stock to a BUY on the back of a firming recovery (link to our note- Beyond the Festive Season: Recovery Sustains). The management expects double-digit growth in FY22 in the domestic 2W market while export demand will remain healthy, driven by low-system inventories. Further, the local 3W volumes are expected to improve from hereon. We maintain BUY, given: (1) exports are firm across frontier markets as crude prices and other commodities are firming up; (2) 3W sales are expected to revive, particularly after the vaccine rollout; and (3) after Bajaj has finalised its agreement with Triumph, it is building a new facility in Chakan to increase production for premium vehicles. 3QFY21 Financials: Total vols grew 9/24% YoY/QoQ. Export vols witnessed strong growth at 22% YoY as international markets are now opening up. Realisations at Rs 68k improved 7% YoY, owing to BSVI cost pass-on to the customers and higher share of exports in the mix (53% vs 47/46% YoY/QoQ). Revenue grew 17/25%. EBITDA margin at 19.4% came in at a multi-quarter high (+150/170bps) owing to a rich product mix and cost controls. Reported PAT came in at Rs 15.5bn (+24/37% YoY/QoQ), which was above estimates. Key takeaways: (1) Positive outlook on exports: In 3QFY21, the company witnessed the highest-ever exports at 687k units (+22% YoY, 53% of overall volumes) as it gained share across markets. Further, demand in most markets is now recovered to ~90% of pre-COVID levels - Africa was not as impacted by COVID, LATAM is at 80-90%, while the Middle East and Sri Lanka have recovered to normalised levels. Bajaj remains in the top-2 OEMs in most of the overseas markets it operates in. (2) Premium portfolio to drive domestic segment: Bajaj’s market share in the premium category stands at over 50% YTD. Pulsar recorded the highest-ever sales, driven by the 125cc. The OEM is investing in its 250cc super premium with its three brands - the Dominar, KTM and Husqvarna. This will be further supplemented with Triumph. Bajaj is investing in a new capacity in Chakan for its premium portfolio. (3) 3W sales are likely to witness an improvement over FY22 sales are expected to improve as financing picks-up and the environment normalises (as cities open-up). Maintain BUY: We increase our FY21/22/23E EPS by ~6% to factor in the higher-than-expected margins in 3QFY21. We value the stock at 20x on FY23E EPS (at a 10% premium to its long-term average trading multiple to factor in the improving outlook) and set a revised target price of Rs 4,250. Key risks: Any further COVID-related lockdown on the downside. Financial Summary YE March (Rs mn) 3Q FY21 3Q FY20 YoY (%) 2Q FY21 QoQ (%) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Net Sales 89,099 76,397 16.6 71,559 24.5 303,576 299,187 268,051 304,230 352,281 EBITDA 17,296 13,672 26.5 12,663 36.6 51,925 50,962 47,713 52,206 62,354 APAT 15,563 12,616 23.4 11,382 36.7 44,366 51,000 47,024 51,944 61,237 Adj. EPS (Rs) 53.8 43.6 23.4 39.3 36.7 153.3 176.2 162.5 179.5 211.6 APAT Gr (%) 8.5 15.0 (7.8) 10.5 17.9 P/E (x) 24.3 21.1 22.9 20.8 17.6 RoE (%) 21.7 24.5 22.4 22.3 23.7 Source: Company, HSIE Research BUY CMP (as on 21 Jan 2021) Rs 3,703 Target Price Rs 4,250 NIFTY 14,590 KEY CHANGES OLD NEW Rating BUY BUY Price Target Rs 4,000 Rs 4,250 EPS % FY21E FY22E 7% 5% KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg code BJAUT IN No. of Shares (mn) 289 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 1,072/14,680 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 2,895 52 Week high / low Rs 3,808/1,789 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) 23.2 24.0 20.4 Relative (%) 1.3 (6.8) 0.3 SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Sep-20 Dec-20 Promoters 53.7 53.7 FIs & Local MFs 10.4 9.1 FPIs 13.6 13.1 Public & Others 22.3 24.1 Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0 Source : BSE Aditya Makharia [email protected] +91-22-6171-7316 Mansi Lall [email protected] +91-22-6171-7357

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Page 1: 22 January 2021 Results Review 3QFY21 Bajaj Auto Auto - 3QFY21...22 January 2021 Results Review 3QFY21 Bajaj Auto HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF  &

22 January 2021 Results Review 3QFY21

Bajaj Auto

HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters

A strong show, encouraging outlook

Bajaj Auto’s 3QFY21 PAT (+24/37% YoY/QoQ) beat was driven by strong

profitability (EBITDA margin came in at 19.4%, +150/170bps YoY/QoQ). We

have recently upgraded the stock to a BUY on the back of a firming recovery

(link to our note- Beyond the Festive Season: Recovery Sustains). The

management expects double-digit growth in FY22 in the domestic 2W market

while export demand will remain healthy, driven by low-system inventories.

Further, the local 3W volumes are expected to improve from hereon. We

maintain BUY, given: (1) exports are firm across frontier markets as crude

prices and other commodities are firming up; (2) 3W sales are expected to

revive, particularly after the vaccine rollout; and (3) after Bajaj has finalised its

agreement with Triumph, it is building a new facility in Chakan to increase

production for premium vehicles.

3QFY21 Financials: Total vols grew 9/24% YoY/QoQ. Export vols witnessed

strong growth at 22% YoY as international markets are now opening up.

Realisations at Rs 68k improved 7% YoY, owing to BSVI cost pass-on to the

customers and higher share of exports in the mix (53% vs 47/46% YoY/QoQ).

Revenue grew 17/25%. EBITDA margin at 19.4% came in at a multi-quarter

high (+150/170bps) owing to a rich product mix and cost controls. Reported

PAT came in at Rs 15.5bn (+24/37% YoY/QoQ), which was above estimates.

Key takeaways: (1) Positive outlook on exports: In 3QFY21, the company

witnessed the highest-ever exports at 687k units (+22% YoY, 53% of overall

volumes) as it gained share across markets. Further, demand in most

markets is now recovered to ~90% of pre-COVID levels - Africa was not as

impacted by COVID, LATAM is at 80-90%, while the Middle East and Sri

Lanka have recovered to normalised levels. Bajaj remains in the top-2 OEMs

in most of the overseas markets it operates in. (2) Premium portfolio to

drive domestic segment: Bajaj’s market share in the premium category

stands at over 50% YTD. Pulsar recorded the highest-ever sales, driven by

the 125cc. The OEM is investing in its 250cc super premium with its three

brands - the Dominar, KTM and Husqvarna. This will be further

supplemented with Triumph. Bajaj is investing in a new capacity in Chakan

for its premium portfolio. (3) 3W sales are likely to witness an improvement

over FY22 – sales are expected to improve as financing picks-up and the

environment normalises (as cities open-up).

Maintain BUY: We increase our FY21/22/23E EPS by ~6% to factor in the

higher-than-expected margins in 3QFY21. We value the stock at 20x on

FY23E EPS (at a 10% premium to its long-term average trading multiple to

factor in the improving outlook) and set a revised target price of Rs 4,250.

Key risks: Any further COVID-related lockdown on the downside.

Financial Summary YE March (Rs

mn)

3Q

FY21

3Q

FY20

YoY

(%)

2Q

FY21

QoQ

(%) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Net Sales 89,099 76,397 16.6 71,559 24.5 303,576 299,187 268,051 304,230 352,281

EBITDA 17,296 13,672 26.5 12,663 36.6 51,925 50,962 47,713 52,206 62,354

APAT 15,563 12,616 23.4 11,382 36.7 44,366 51,000 47,024 51,944 61,237

Adj. EPS (Rs) 53.8 43.6 23.4 39.3 36.7 153.3 176.2 162.5 179.5 211.6

APAT Gr (%)

8.5 15.0 (7.8) 10.5 17.9

P/E (x)

24.3 21.1 22.9 20.8 17.6

RoE (%)

21.7 24.5 22.4 22.3 23.7

Source: Company, HSIE Research

BUY

CMP (as on 21 Jan 2021) Rs 3,703

Target Price Rs 4,250

NIFTY 14,590

KEY

CHANGES OLD NEW

Rating BUY BUY

Price Target Rs 4,000 Rs 4,250

EPS % FY21E FY22E

7% 5%

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg code BJAUT IN

No. of Shares (mn) 289

MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 1,072/14,680

6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 2,895

52 Week high / low Rs 3,808/1,789

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 23.2 24.0 20.4

Relative (%) 1.3 (6.8) 0.3

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Sep-20 Dec-20

Promoters 53.7 53.7

FIs & Local MFs 10.4 9.1

FPIs 13.6 13.1

Public & Others 22.3 24.1

Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0

Source : BSE

Aditya Makharia

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7316

Mansi Lall

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7357

Page 2: 22 January 2021 Results Review 3QFY21 Bajaj Auto Auto - 3QFY21...22 January 2021 Results Review 3QFY21 Bajaj Auto HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF  &

Page | 2

Bajaj Auto: Results Review 3QFY21

Quarterly financial snapshot

Particulars 3Q

FY21

3Q

FY20 YoY (%)

2Q

FY21 QoQ (%)

9M

FY21

9M

FY20 YoY (%)

Volumes (in units) 1,306,810 1,202,486 8.7 1,053,337 24.1 2,803,250 3,623,251 (22.6)

Net ASP (Rs/veh) 68,180 63,532 7.3 67,935 0.4 68,296 63,763 7.1

Net sales (incl OOI) 89,099 76,397 16.6 71,559 24.5 191,450 231,028 (17.1)

Material Expenses 63,082 53,422 18.1 50,581 24.7 134,330 163,430 (17.8)

Employee Expenses 3,172 3,482 (8.9) 3,246 (2.3) 9,790 10,471 (6.5)

Other Operating Expenses 5,548 5,820 (4.7) 5,069 9.4 13,286 18,692 (28.9)

Total Expenditure 71,803 62,725 14.5 58,896 21.9 157,406 192,593 (18.3)

EBITDA 17,296 13,672 26.5 12,663 36.6 34,044 38,435 (11.4)

Depreciation 650 617 5.4 643 1.1 1,931 1,832 5.4

EBIT 16,646 13,055 27.5 12,019 38.5 32,113 36,603 (12.3)

Other Income (Including EO Items) 3,692 3,662 0.8 2,858 29.2 9,929 12,009 (17.3)

Interest Cost 10 5 117.0 27 (61.5) 46 23 105.3

PBT 20,328 16,713 21.6 14,851 36.9 41,995 48,590 (13.6)

Tax 4,765 4,097 16.3 3,469 37.4 9,770 10,693 (8.6)

RPAT 15,563 12,616 23.4 11,382 36.7 32,225 37,897 (15.0)

EO (Loss) / Profit - - - - - - - -

APAT 15,563 12,616 23.4 11,382 36.7 32,225 37,897 (15.0)

Adj EPS 53.8 43.6 23.4 39.3 36.7 111.4 131.0 (15.0)

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Quarterly Performance Analysis As % of sales 3QFY21 3QFY20 YoY (bps) 2QFY21 QoQ (bps) 9MFY21 9MFY20 QoQ (bps)

Material Expenses 70.8 69.9 87 70.7 12 70.2 70.7 (58)

Employee Expenses 3.6 4.6 (100) 4.5 (98) 5.1 4.5 58

Other Operating

Expenses 6.2 7.6 (139) 7.1 (86) 6.9 8.1 (115)

Total Expenditure 80.6 82.1 (152) 82.3 (172) 82.2 83.4 (115)

EBITDA 19.4 17.9 152 17.7 172 17.8 16.6 115

APAT 17.5 16.5 95 15.9 156 16.8 16.4 43

Tax as % of PBT 23.4 24.5 (107) 23.4 8 23.3 22.0 126

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Volumes for the quarter

grew 9% YoY led by 22%

growth in exports

Realisations grew as the

product mix titled more

towards exports

Raw material prices, as %

sales- are expected to

witness a 300bps increase

in 4QFY21 given the risen

commodity prices. This

could put some pressure on

the margins

A potential restoration of

MEIS benefits/PLI scheme

should offset the

commodity-based margin

headwinds

Exports contributed Rs

40bn to the revenues

Page 3: 22 January 2021 Results Review 3QFY21 Bajaj Auto Auto - 3QFY21...22 January 2021 Results Review 3QFY21 Bajaj Auto HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF  &

Page | 3

Bajaj Auto: Results Review 3QFY21

Volumes grew 9% YoY Realizations benefitted due to higher share of exports

Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Company, HSIE Research

Bajaj’s 3W sales are rebounding from lower levels Exports are correlated to commodity prices

Source: Company, HSIE Research Source: Bloomberg, Company, HSIE Research

2W Premium segment market share (Nov-20 YTD) One year forward P/E band chart

Source: SIAM, Company, HSIE Research Source: Bloomberg, Company, HSIE Research

25

.7

14

.2

1.7

-12

.4 -4.5

-16

.9

-64

.5

-10

.2

8.7

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

3Q

FY

19

4Q

FY

19

1Q

FY

20

2Q

FY

20

3Q

FY

20

4Q

FY

20

1Q

FY

21

2Q

FY

21

3Q

FY

21

Volumes ('000 units) % change YoY -RHS

59.1

62.2 62.2

65.7

63.5

68.769.5

67.9 68.2

55

60

65

70

3Q

FY

19

4Q

FY

19

1Q

FY

20

2Q

FY

20

3Q

FY

20

4Q

FY

20

1Q

FY

21

2Q

FY

21

3Q

FY

21

Avg realisation (Rs '000)

181 192

165

189 175

138

43

89

113

0

40

80

120

160

200

3Q

FY

19

4Q

FY

19

1Q

FY

20

2Q

FY

20

3Q

FY

20

4Q

FY

20

1Q

FY

21

2Q

FY

21

3Q

FY

21

3W sales ('000 units)

30

40

50

60

70

80

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1Q

FY

19

2Q

FY

19

3Q

FY

19

4Q

FY

19

1Q

FY

20

2Q

FY

20

3Q

FY

20

4Q

FY

20

1Q

FY

21

2Q

FY

21

3Q

FY

21

Volumes ('000 units) Brent Crude ($) - RHS

42% 42% 46% 44% 39% 43% 49% 51%

20%16% 12% 16%

20% 18%15%

14%

16%18%

15% 15%15% 16% 14%

12%

9% 12%15% 16% 19% 19% 18% 16%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21

YTD

Bajaj Hero Honda Yamaha TVS Others

8

12

16

20

24

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

Jan

-15

Jan

-16

Jan

-17

Jan

-18

Jan

-19

Jan

-20

Jan

-21

PE Mean +1 SD -1 SD

Page 4: 22 January 2021 Results Review 3QFY21 Bajaj Auto Auto - 3QFY21...22 January 2021 Results Review 3QFY21 Bajaj Auto HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF  &

Page | 4

Bajaj Auto: Results Review 3QFY21

Volume assumptions

in units FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Motorcycles

-Domestic 2,001,391 1,974,574 2,541,320 2,078,348 1,828,946 2,011,841 2,233,143

-Exports 1,218,541 1,394,757 1,695,553 1,869,220 1,700,990 1,854,079 2,076,569

Total 3,219,932 3,369,331 4,236,873 3,947,568 3,529,936 3,865,920 4,309,712

% YoY (4.1) 4.6 25.7 (6.8) (10.6) 9.5 11.5

3Ws

-Domestic 253,226 369,637 399,448 365,759 146,304 193,121 229,814

-Exports 192,792 267,820 382,391 301,885 265,659 278,942 306,836

Total 446,018 637,457 781,839 667,644 411,962 472,062 536,650

% YoY (16.7) 42.9 22.6 (14.6) (38.3) 14.6 13.7

Total sales

- Domestic 2,254,617 2,344,211 2,940,768 2,444,107 1,975,250 2,204,962 2,462,957

- Exports 1,411,333 1,662,577 2,077,944 2,171,105 1,966,649 2,133,021 2,383,405

Total 3,665,950 4,006,788 5,018,712 4,615,212 3,941,899 4,337,983 4,846,362

% YoY (5.8) 9.3 25.3 (8.0) (14.6) 10.0 11.7

Average Realisation (Rs) 59,375 62,940 60,489 64,826 68,001 70,132 72,690

% YoY 2.4 6.0 (3.9) 7.2 4.9 3.1 3.6

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Peer set comparison

Mcap

(Rs bn)

CMP

(Rs/sh) Reco

Adj EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) RoE (%)

FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E

Ashok Leyland 351 120 REDUCE 0.1 3.8 5.2 882.1 31.4 22.9 0.5 14.7 18.3

Bajaj Auto 1,072 3,703 BUY 162.5 179.5 211.6 22.9 20.8 17.6 22.4 22.3 23.7

Eicher 80 2,927 REDUCE 54.6 80.0 102.1 53.6 36.6 28.7 14.1 18.2 20.0

Escorts Ltd. 158 1,286 ADD 69.0 80.3 92.6 18.6 16.0 13.9 16.3 14.8 14.8

Hero Motocorp 648 3,247 BUY 137.5 163.9 188.7 23.6 19.8 17.2 18.5 20.1 20.7

Mahindra & Mahindra 963 808 ADD 33.3 37.8 44.7 24.3 21.4 18.1 11.2 11.8 12.6

Maruti Suzuki 2,439 8,077 BUY 156.1 264.8 335.7 51.7 30.5 24.1 9.4 14.7 16.7

Tata Motors 1,045 291 BUY (28.0) 0.3 11.4 NA NA 25.6 (17.4) 0.2 7.4

Source: HSIE Research

Change in Estimates

Rs mn New Old Change (%)

FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E

Net Sales 268,051 304,230 352,281 263,147 298,698 343,022 2 2 3

EBITDA 47,713 52,206 62,354 44,209 50,360 59,857 8 4 4

EBITDA margin (%) 17.8 17.2 17.7 16.8 16.9 17.5 100 bps 30 bps 25 bps

Adj PAT 47,024 51,944 61,237 43,755 49,528 57,775 7 5 6

Adj EPS (in Rs) 162.5 179.5 211.6 151.2 171.2 199.7 7 5 6

Source: HSIE Research

Page 5: 22 January 2021 Results Review 3QFY21 Bajaj Auto Auto - 3QFY21...22 January 2021 Results Review 3QFY21 Bajaj Auto HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF  &

Page | 5

Bajaj Auto: Results Review 3QFY21

Financials Standalone Income Statement

Rs mn FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Net Revenues 217,667 252,189 303,576 299,187 268,051 304,230 352,281

Growth (%) (3.6) 15.9 20.4 (1.4) (10.4) 13.5 15.8

Material Expenses 146,242 174,101 217,977 210,083 186,832 213,265 245,540

Employee Expenses 9,971 10,691 12,554 13,892 13,403 13,995 15,500

Other Operating Expenses 17,231 19,023 21,120 24,249 20,104 24,764 28,887

Total Expenses 173,444 203,815 251,651 248,224 220,338 252,024 289,927

EBITDA 44,223 48,374 51,925 50,962 47,713 52,206 62,354

EBITDA Margin (%) 20.3 19.2 17.1 17.0 17.8 17.2 17.7

EBITDA Growth (%) (7.5) 9.4 7.3 (1.9) (6.4) 9.4 19.4

Depreciation 3,073 3,148 2,657 2,464 2,441 2,451 2,647

EBIT 41,150 45,226 49,268 48,498 45,272 49,755 59,706

Other Income (Including EO Items) 12,220 12,613 17,809 17,336 15,651 17,719 19,066

Interest 14 13 45 32 12 14 11

PBT 53,356 57,826 67,032 65,802 60,911 67,460 78,761

Tax (Incl Deferred) 15,081 17,145 20,280 14,802 13,888 15,516 17,524

RPAT 38,275 40,681 46,752 51,000 47,024 51,944 61,237

EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) - 225 (2,385) - - - -

APAT 38,275 40,906 44,366 51,000 47,024 51,944 61,237

APAT Growth (%) (2.6) 6.9 8.5 15.0 (7.8) 10.5 17.9

Adjusted EPS (Rs) 132.3 141.4 153.3 176.2 162.5 179.5 211.6

EPS Growth (%) (2.6) 6.9 8.5 15.0 (7.8) 10.5 17.9

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Standalone Balance Sheet

(Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share Capital - Equity 2,894 2,894 2,894 2,894 2,894 2,894 2,894

Reserves 167,448 188,145 214,905 196,361 217,950 241,797 269,911

Total Shareholders Funds 170,341 191,039 217,799 199,255 220,843 244,691 272,805

Total Debt - - - - - - -

Net Deferred Taxes 3,136 3,234 5,427 3,464 1,515 31 (2,293)

Other Non-current Liabilities & Provns 1,764 1,687 1,696 1,677 1,677 1,677 1,677

TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 175,242 195,960 224,922 204,396 224,035 246,399 272,189

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Net Block 20,018 18,783 17,639 16,990 22,136 27,098 31,951

CWIP 422 565 480 602 515 602 602

Investments 12,227 12,227 12,227 12,333 12,333 12,333 12,333

Total Non-current Assets 32,667 31,575 30,347 29,925 34,983 40,032 44,885

Cash & Equivalents 137,886 171,436 188,595 172,710 189,725 207,130 228,188

Inventories 7,284 7,426 9,615 10,635 8,813 10,002 11,582

Debtors 9,533 14,919 25,597 17,251 15,456 17,542 20,312

Other Current Assets 20,780 12,839 19,651 17,213 15,421 17,503 20,267

Total Current Assets 175,482 206,620 243,457 217,808 229,414 252,177 280,350

Creditors 22,357 32,443 37,867 31,997 28,667 32,536 37,675

Other Current Liabilities & Provns 10,550 9,792 11,015 11,340 11,695 13,274 15,370

Total Current Liabilities 32,907 42,235 48,882 43,337 40,363 45,810 53,046

Net Current Assets 142,575 164,385 194,575 174,471 189,052 206,366 227,304

TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 175,242 195,960 224,922 204,396 224,035 246,399 272,189

Source: Company, HSIE Research

Page 6: 22 January 2021 Results Review 3QFY21 Bajaj Auto Auto - 3QFY21...22 January 2021 Results Review 3QFY21 Bajaj Auto HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF  &

Page | 6

Bajaj Auto: Results Review 3QFY21

Standalone Cash Flow (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Reported PBT 53,356 57,826 67,032 65,802 60,911 67,460 78,761

Non-operating & EO Items (12,220) (12,613) (17,809) (17,336) (15,651) (17,719) (19,066)

Interest Expenses 14 13 45 32 12 14 11

Depreciation 3,073 3,148 2,657 2,464 2,441 2,451 2,647

Working Capital Change (6,802) 11,740 (13,031) 4,219 2,434 91 121

Tax Paid (13,973) (17,047) (18,087) (16,765) (15,837) (17,000) (19,848)

OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 23,449 43,068 20,806 38,416 34,311 35,297 42,627

Capex 4,399 (2,056) (1,429) (1,937) (7,500) (7,500) (7,500)

Free Cash Flow (FCF) 27,847 41,011 19,378 36,479 26,811 27,797 35,127

Investments (122) (77) 9 87 - - -

Non-operating Income 12,220 12,613 17,809 17,336 15,651 17,719 19,066

INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) 16,497 10,479 16,389 15,486 8,151 10,219 11,566

Debt Issuance/(Repaid) - - - - - - -

Interest Expenses (14) (13) (45) (32) (12) (14) (11)

FCFE 27,833 40,998 19,333 36,448 26,799 27,783 35,116

Share Capital Issuance 18,556 947 878 (28,016) 0 - -

Dividend (19,155) (20,931) (20,869) (41,739) (25,435) (28,097) (33,123)

FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (614) (19,997) (20,036) (69,787) (25,447) (28,111) (33,134)

NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 39,332 33,550 17,159 (15,885) 17,015 17,405 21,058

Closing Cash & Equivalents 137,886 171,436 188,595 172,709 189,724 207,130 228,188

Key Ratios FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

PROFITABILITY (%)

GPM 32.8 31.0 28.2 29.8 30.3 29.9 30.3

EBITDA Margin 20.3 19.2 17.1 17.0 17.8 17.2 17.7

EBIT Margin 18.9 17.9 16.2 16.2 16.9 16.4 16.9

APAT Margin 17.6 16.2 14.6 17.0 17.5 17.1 17.4

RoE 25.3 22.6 21.7 24.5 22.4 22.3 23.7

RoIC (or Core RoCE) 78.3 102.8 112.9 110.5 105.9 104.1 111.5

RoCE 24.6 22.0 21.1 23.8 22.0 22.1 23.6

EFFICIENCY

Tax Rate (%) 28.3 29.6 30.3 22.5 22.8 23.0 22.3

Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 10.9 13.4 17.2 17.6 12.1 11.2 11.0

Inventory (days) 12.2 10.7 11.6 13.0 12.0 12.0 12.0

Debtors (days) 16.0 21.6 30.8 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0

Other Current Assets (days) 34.8 18.6 23.6 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0

Payables (days) 37.5 47.0 45.5 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0

Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 17.7 14.2 13.2 13.8 15.9 15.9 15.9

Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 7.9 (10.2) 7.2 2.1 (0.9) (0.9) (0.9)

Debt/EBITDA (x) (3.1) (3.5) (3.6) (3.4) (4.0) (4.0) (3.7)

Net D/E (x) (0.8) (0.9) (0.9) (0.9) (0.9) (0.8) (0.8)

Interest Coverage (x) 2,939 3,452 1,100 1,535 3,773 3,554 5,428

PER SHARE DATA (Rs)

EPS 132.3 141.4 153.3 176.2 162.5 179.5 211.6

CEPS 142.9 151.5 170.7 184.8 170.9 188.0 220.8

Dividend 55.0 55.0 60.0 60.0 120.0 73.1 80.8

Book Value 589 660 753 689 763 846 943

VALUATION

P/E (x) 28.2 26.4 24.3 21.1 22.9 20.8 17.6

P/BV (x) 6.3 5.6 5.0 5.4 4.9 4.4 4.0

EV/EBITDA (x) 21.3 18.8 17.1 17.8 18.6 16.7 13.6

EV/Revenues (x) 4.3 3.6 2.9 3.0 3.3 2.9 2.4

OCF/EV (%) 2.5 4.7 2.3 4.2 3.9 4.1 5.0

FCF/EV (%) 3.0 4.5 2.2 4.0 3.0 3.2 4.1

FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) 2.6 3.8 1.8 3.4 2.5 2.6 3.3

Dividend Yield (%) 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 3.2 2.0 2.2

Source: Company, HSIE Research

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Bajaj Auto: Results Review 3QFY21

Rating Criteria

BUY: >+15% return potential

ADD: +5% to +15% return potential

REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential

SELL: >10% Downside return potential

Date CMP Reco Target

9-Jan-20 3,059 BUY 3,530

30-Jan-20 3,146 BUY 3,630

2-Mar-20 2,890 BUY 3,745

20-Apr-20 2,378 ADD 2,695

21-May-20 2,558 ADD 2,850

23-Jul-20 2,985 ADD 3,120

12-Oct-20 3,060 ADD 3,230

23-Oct-20 3,006 ADD 3,270

6-Jan-21 3,494 BUY 4,000

22-Jan-21 3,703 BUY 4,250

From 2nd March 2020, we have moved to new rating system

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

1,800

2,300

2,800

3,300

3,800

4,300

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Ma

r-2

0

Ap

r-2

0

Ma

y-2

0

Jun

-20

Jul-

20

Au

g-2

0

Sep

-20

Oct

-20

No

v-2

0

Dec

-20

Jan

-21

Bajaj Auto TP

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Bajaj Auto: Results Review 3QFY21

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