28 June 2012The full report is available from www.daff.gov.au/abares

Summary of key issues Prospects for winter grain crops have improved as a result of rainfall across most of the

southern cropping zone during the past week. The recent damp conditions in the southern cropping zone have stimulated activity in a

range of invertebrate pests that can adversely affect crops. Heavy rainfall in southern Victoria during the past week caused flooding in the main

asparagus producing region in Australia. Repeated inundation on parts of the Queensland coast has caused some ongoing delays

for the sugar cane harvest. Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin increased this week by

173 gigalitres (GL) to approximately 92 per cent of total capacity. The wholesale prices of vegetables were generally higher or unchanged in the week

ending 23 June 2012. There were mixed changes in the wholesale prices of fruit. The world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports)

averaged US$303 a tonne in the week ending 26 June 2012, compared with US$280 a tonne in the previous week.

The Australian indicator price for feed wheat (Sydney, GP) has been trending up since mid-April, reaching $260 a tonne in the week ending 26 June.

The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$275 a tonne for the week ending 27 June 2012, compared with US$269 a tonne in the previous week.

The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$606 a tonne in the week ending 26 June 2012.

The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $516 a tonne in the week ending 25 June 2012.

The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330-400kg live weight C3) fell 16 cents to 341 cents a kilogram in the week ending 22 June 2012.

Saleyard lamb prices declined in the eastern states for the week ending 22 June 2012. The largest falls were in New South Wales and South Australia.

Australian milk production was 4 per cent higher in the first eleven months of 2011-12, compared with the same period in 2010-11.

For more information or to subscribe, email ClimateUpdate@daff.gov.au

1. Climate

1.1. Notable events For the week ending 27 June 2012, rainfall was recorded across southern Australia and in eastern

Queensland. Little to no rainfall was recorded over most of central and northern Australia. The highest measured rainfall total for the week was 168 mm at Mount Read, in west Tasmania.

Rainfall across areas of Western Australia, Victoria, South Australia, and New South Wales during the past week has provided moisture for the ongoing growth of winter grain crops. The rainfall should allow crops to establish deeper root systems, providing access to lower layer soil moisture and improving prospects.

The recent damp conditions throughout the southern cropping zone have stimulated activity in a range of invertebrate pests that can adversely affect establishing crops. The Grains Research and Development Corporation has advised producers to be vigilant and act to control any outbreaks.

Heavy rainfall in southern Victoria during the past week caused flooding in the main asparagus producing region in Australia. As a result, yields may be lower when harvesting commences in two months.

Repeated inundation on parts of the Queensland coast has caused some ongoing delays for the sugar cane harvest. There are reports that some paddocks are becoming too wet for harvesting machinery to access. In New South Wales the cane harvest is just commencing, with reports that yields are expected to be below average due to wet conditions over the last few years.

1.2. Rainfall this weekFor the week ending 27 June 2012, rainfall was recorded across southern Australia and in eastern Queensland. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.

Rainfall for the week ending 27 June 2012

1.3. Temperature anomalies this weekSpatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum from the long-term average. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information on temperature anomalies, go to www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 26 June 2012

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 26 June 2012

1.4. Rainfall outlookThe rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to also check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall for the period 28 June to 5 July 2012

2. Water

2.1. Water availabilityWater storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) increased this week by 173 gigalitres (GL) to approximately 92 per cent of total capacity. This is 9 percentage points or 2097 GL more than this time last year.

Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 28 June 2012 is shown above. The top horizontal (red) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (orange) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

3. Commodities

3.1. Production and commodities

There were mixed changes in the wholesale prices of fruit in the week ending 23 June 2012. Rockmelon, banana (cavendish) and avocado (hass) wholesale prices were higher but pineapple (smoothleaf), watermelon (seedless), kiwifruit (hayward) and orange (navel) were lower.

The wholesale prices of vegetable were generally higher or unchanged in the week ending 23 June 2012 with the prices of tomato (field gourmet), iceberg lettuce, pumpkin (grey bulk) and beans (round) being higher. The wholesale prices of onion (brown) and potato (white, washed) prices were unchanged, while cauliflower and broccoli were lower.

The world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$303 a tonne in the week ending 26 June 2012, compared with US$280 a tonne in the previous week. Wheat prices rose following hot and dry conditions in parts of the US and the Black Sea region.

The Australian indicator price for feed wheat (Sydney, GP) has been trending up since mid-April, reaching $260 a tonne in the week ending 26 June, compared with $209 a tonne in the week ending 17 June.

The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$275 a tonne for the week ending 27 June 2012, compared with US$269 a tonne in the previous week.

The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$606 a tonne in the week ending 26 June 2012, compared with US$593 a tonne in the previous week.

The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $516 a tonne in the week ending 25 June 2012, compared with $500 a tonne in the previous week.

The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US 81.7 cents a pound in the week ending 27 June 2012, compared with US84 cents a pound in the previous week.

The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US20.8 cents a pound in the week ending 27 June 2012, remains largely unchanged from previous week.

The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330-400kg live weight C3) fell 16 cents to 341 cents a kilogram in the week ending 22 June 2012. Young cattle prices also fell in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania, but rose in New South Wales.

Saleyard lamb prices declined in the eastern states for the week ending 22 June 2012. The largest falls were in New South Wales and South Australia where lamb prices (18-22kg fat score 2-4) fell 6 per cent in each state to average 403 and 430 cents per kilogram, respectively. The fall in prices follows from an increase in number of lambs offered for sale in the eastern states rising 30 per cent higher compared with last week.

Australian milk production was 4 per cent higher in the first eleven months of 2011-12, compared with the same period in 2010-11. The strongest gains occurred in south eastern Australia with milk production in northern Victoria, southern New South Wales and Tasmania increasing by 15 per cent, 8 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively. Milk production in South Australia and Queensland fell by just under 1 per cent in both states while production in Western Australia declined by 7 per cent.

3.2. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable pricesWeekly wholesale prices for selected fruit, Melbourne market

Weekly wholesale prices for selected vegetables, Melbourne market

3.3. Selected world indicator prices

3.4. Crop indicator prices

3.5. Livestock indicator prices

4. Data attributionClimateBureau of Meteorology Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/ Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/ Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ Soil moisture (BoM, CSIRO and the former Bureau of Rural Sciences): www.eoc.csiro.au/ awap /

WaterNew South Wales New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/

New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx

Available water determinations register: www.wix.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination

Snowy Hydro: www.snowyhydro.com.au/lakeLevels.asp?pageID=47&parentID=61&grandParentID=4Queensland Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au seqwater: http://seqwater.com.auSouth Australia SA Water: www.sawater.com.au/SAWater/Environment/TheRiverMurray/River+Murray+Levels.htm

South Australian Department of Water: www.waterforgood.sa.gov.au/

Victoria Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.auWater trading

Waterexchange: www.waterexchange.com.au

CommoditiesFruit and vegetables

Datafresh: www.datafresh.com.auMutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum

The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspxCattle, mutton, lambs and pigs

Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-marketsCanola

Weekly Times: hardcopy