2a. develop a formal action plan: results chains

2A. Develop a Formal Action Plan: Results Chains

Conservation Coaches Network Workshop Presentation

Adaptive Management Workshop Presentations

1A-1B. Team, Scope, Vision1B. Conservation Targets1B. Viability Assessment

2A-1. Strategy Selection2A-2. Results Chains2A-3. Goals and Objectives

2B. Monitoring Plan

1C. Threat Rating

1D. Conceptual Models

Plan Your Actions & Monitoring

Results Chains

This Presentation

• What is a Results Chain• How to Develop Results Chains• Examples• How Project Teams Have Used Results Chains

Results Chains

What is a Results Chain?

A tool for documenting a team’s “theory of change,” describing how a strategy will lead to conservation success

Results Chains


A diagram of a series of “if…then” causal statements that:

• Defines how a project team thinks a strategy will contribute to reducing a threat or restoring a target

• Focuses on the achievement of results – not the execution of activities

• Is composed of assumptions that can be tested

Results Chains

Results Chains

Conservation target improved

Implicit Assumptions:

Strategy ?

?

Results Chains


Strategy

The Basic Components of a Results Chain:

Results Chains


Strategy

Impact on Target

Goal


Results Chains


Result(Direct Threat)

Result

Strategy

Objective Objective

Impact on Target

Goal


Impact of actions

achieved/ Viability

maintained

DirectThreat

ObjectiveAchieved

Contributing factor

addressed or opportunityachieved

Strategic action

implemented

Results Chains

Why Results Chains?

• Document assumptions • Define how activities will contribute

to achieving results• Formulate measures of success

Results Chains

Situation Analysis vs. Results Chains

Situation Analyses:– Shows the situation today helps us to

illuminate points of intervention and identify strategies

Results Chains:– Starts with selected strategies and helps to

illuminate the assumptions leading to the desired results

Results Chains

Achieving Success

Accurate Results Chain

Well executed project

Desired resultsused todesign

leads to

Accurate Results Chain

Poorly executed project

Desired resultsdoes not lead to

Inaccurate Results Chain

Well executed project


Inaccurate Results Chain

Poorly executed project


SUCCESS!

THEORY FAILURE

PROGRAM FAILURE

TOTAL FAILURE!!!

used todesign

used todesign

used todesign

Results Chains

What Happens When We Make False Assumptions?

Training Fly Fishing Guides in Bocas del Toro, Panama

Results Chains

Underlying Project Assumptions

The project team assumed:• If we train local fishermen as fly fishing guides and we give them fly

fishing gear, then they will have the skills and gear to be guides

• If they have the skills and gear, then they will work as fly fishing guides

• If they are able to work as fly fishing guides, then they will increase their income

• If they have increased income, they will not need to fish so much and there will be less unsustainable fishing practices

• If there are less unsustainable fishing practices, then the coral reef ecosystem will be more conserved.

Unsustainable Fishing

Reduced

Increased income

Local Fishermen Work as Guides

Local Fishermen Have Skills & Gear to Be

Guides

Train Local Fishermen as

Fly Fishing Guides

Coral Reef EcosystemX

Results Chains

Underlying Project Assumptions

What else did the fishermen need to become fly fishing guides?

• Clients – tourists and tourism operators needed to know about the fly fishing guides

• English speaking skills

• Etc.

Unsustainable Fishing

Reduced

Increased income

Local Fishermen Work as Guides

Local Fishermen Have Skills & Gear to Be

Guides

Train Local Fishermen as

Fly Fishing Guides

Coral Reef Ecosystem

Tourists hire guides

Tourists & tour operators

know about guides

X

Results Chains

This Presentation


Results Chains

One Way to Develop a Results Chain

1. Construct an initial results chain

2. Complete the links in the results chain

3. Verify that your results chain meets criteria of a good results chain

4. Add activities to show how your specific actions (activities) will contribute to achieving your results

Results Chains

Our Example – Swan Coastal Plain Wetlands

Adapted from WWF Australia’s WeltlandsWatch Project

Results Chains

A Chain From the Model Allows You to…

Results Chains

A Chain From the Model Allows You to…

Results Chains

In Miradi, select the direct threat, right-click & select “Create Results Chain”

1. Construct an Initial Results Chain

Results Chains

2. Complete the Links in the Results Chain

Results Chains

Spread out initial results:

2. Complete the Links in the Results Chain

Results Chains

3. Review the Criteria for Good Results Chains

• Results oriented: Boxes contain desired results (e.g., reduction of hunting), and not activities (e.g., conduct a study).

• Connected in a “causal” manner: There are clear connections of “if…then” between each pair of successive boxes.

Results Chains


• Demonstrates change: Each box describes how you hope the relevant factor will change (e.g., improve, increase, or decrease).

Results Chains


• Relatively complete: There are sufficient boxes to construct logical connections but not so many that the chain becomes overly complex.

• Simple: There is only one result per box.

Results Chains

4. Add Activities

Activity: A specific action or set of tasks undertaken by project staff and/or partners to reach one or more objectives.

Define activities to accomplish your strategy and add them onto the results chain

Results Chains

4. Add Activities Results Chains

Activities in Miradi

Select this to show main activities on the results chain

If you have a lot of activities, don’t clutter the results chain with all of them. Keep some hidden.

Results Chains

Other Ways to Develop a Results Chain

Promote development of

legal instruments for grassland

protection

No new agricultural

expansion in grasslands

Desert Grassland

ecosystems maintained

Steps:1)Place strategy, target and threat reduction result2)Build the chain, either:

• Right to left, defining what needs to be done to reduce the threat

• Left to right, defining desired results of the strategy

• Brainstorming results and then linking them (as in this example)

Results Chains

tschulz

those are activities not resultsnot sure the alternative way is needed; could be hidden.



protection

No new agricultural


Land use change petitions in critical

grasslands refused

New water concessions in

grasslands refused

Desert Grassland



Results Chains

Government recognizes

importance of grasslands & need for revising regulations



protection

No new agricultural



grasslands refusedStricter criteria

developed for grassland mgmt

& protection New water concessions in

grasslands refused

Desert Grassland



Results Chains

Government recognizes

importance of grasslands & need for revising regulations



protection

No new agricultural



grasslands refused

Enforcement of refused petitions

Stricter criteria developed for

grassland mgmt & protection New water

concessions in grasslands

refused

Enforcement of refused water concessions

Desert Grassland



Results Chains

What is NOT a Results Chain?

It is not an implementation flow diagram…

Results chains focus on

the achievement of results

not the implementation of activities

Results Chains

Your Turn: Which of the Following is NOT a Results Chain?

Community capacity building

for forest resource management

Greater indigenous knowledge about rights

More control of & vigilance over external

actors

More illegal wood

confiscated

Less illegal selective logging

in indigenous communities

Primary forest

conserved

Increased permanence of agricultural

occupation

Farmers implement sustainable

agriculture methodsMore

permanent crops

Increased yields

Promotion of sustainable agriculture

Coastal forests

conserved

Miombo woodland conserved

Lobbying of government for

stronger regulations

Jaguar populations increased

Identify key decision makers

Educate decision makers

Decision makers pass

laws

Research & develop

regulations

No wildlife trade

Less conversion of

forest to agriculture

A.

B.

C.

Results Chains

This Presentation


Results Chains

Your Turn: Add the Missing Result

Promotion of certified timber

harvesting

Montane forest

diversity maintained

Loggers knowledgeable

about certification

Loggers view certified

market as profitable

More sustainable

harvesting of timber

?

Results Chains

Your Turn: Add the Missing Result

Promotion of certified timber

harvesting

Montane forest

diversity maintained

Loggers knowledgeable

about certification

Loggers view certified

market as profitable

More sustainable

harvesting of timber

Loggers use certified

harvesting methods

Your Turn: Create a Results Chain Using the Following Results

StrategyTarget Impact

(Result 4)

Result 1a

Result 1b

Result 2Direct Threat

Result (3)

Citizens eradicate invasive plants

Healthy native wetland vegetation

Citizens have skills to eradicate invasive plants

Train citizens to eradicate invasive plants

Citizens knowledgeable of local invasive plants

Invasive plants decreased

Results Chains


Train citizens to eradicate

invasive plants

Target Impact

(Result 4)

Result 1a

Result 1b


Result (3)



Citizens have skills to eradicate invasive plants

Citizens knowledgeable of local invasive plants


Results Chains



invasive plants

Target Impact

(Result 4)

Citizens knowledgeable of local invasive

plants

Citizens have skills to

eradicate invasive plants


Result (3)




Results Chains



invasive plants

Target Impact

(Result 4)


plants




Direct Threat Result (3)



Results Chains



invasive plants

Healthy native

wetland vegetation


plants




Invasive plants

decreased

Results Chains

This Presentation

• What is a Results Chain• How to Develop Results Chains• Examples• How Project Teams Have Used Results

Chains

Results Chains

How Teams Have Used Results Chains

• To discuss and refine their theories of change• To be realistic about the time required to achieve

results• To recognize when NOT to implement a strategy

Results Chains

Refine Theories of Change

Less conversion of forest to ag

Higher quality brazil nut

Higher income

?

Brazil nut mgmt plan

Mgmt plans implemented

Brazil nut forest

conserved

Adapted from WWF Southwest Amazon Ecoregion (SWA)

Results Chains




Higher income

Local people committed to forest mgmt



Brazil nut forest

conserved


Results Chains


Greater recognition of

forest’s economic value



Higher income


Higher quality of life



Brazil nut forest

conserved


Results Chains



Higher income


More people buy cattle (as

savings)

More conversion of

forest to pasture


Less Brazil Nut Forest


Results Chains






Higher income




More people buy cattle (as

savings)

More conversion of

forest to pasture


Brazil nut forest

conserved

Less Brazil Nut Forest


Results Chains

Be Realistic About Time Required to Achieve Results





Higher income





Brazil nut forest

conserved

Objective 2010

Objective 2012

Objective 2007

Goal 2014Objective 2012


Results Chains

Recognizing When NOT To Implement a Strategy

Less Conversion of Forest to Agriculture

Promote marketable cash

crops

Increased permanence

of agric occupation

Increased income

Model widely implemented

by gov’tMore

permanent crops

Increased yields

Farmer will not convert more land

Pilot model of sustainable agriculture Coastal

Forests

Miombo Woodland

Should we invest in sustainable agriculture?

Adapted from Eastern African Coastal Forests Ecoregion (EACFE)

Results Chains

Results Chains

Key Points

• Results oriented, but activities can help the flow

• The “If-then” logic must stand up

• Make your assumptions & the actor’s incentives explicit

• Alternative pathways are OK

• Peer review is critical

2a. develop a formal action plan: results chains

Documents

results chainhow

results chains8we

results chains9what

results chains10what

achievement of results

results chains2a

results chains diagrams

project strategy