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PLANTSAngiospermae
7,200 spp
Gymnospermae
ALGAS – freshwater & marine
LICHENE
BRIOPHYTE
PTERIDOPHYTE
PLANTSAngiospermae
7,200 spp
Gymnospermae
ALGAS – freshwater & marine
LICHENE
BRIOPHYTE
PTERIDOPHYTE
Atlantic Forest: the most ancient
Brazilian forest, and a biodiversity
hotspot, is highly threatened by climate
change.
Alexandre F. COLOMBO1 & Carlos A. JOLY1
1 – State University of Campinas/UNICAMP - Brazil
Araucaria Forest
168,096 km2
Ombrophilous Dense Forest
218,790 km2
Semi-deciduous Forest
486,500 km2
125 million inhabitants
RIBEIRO et al 2009 – estimates of existing Atlantic Forest
cover are higher than previous ones (7–8%), ranging from
11.4% to 16%. The differences among estimates are
mainly related to our inclusion of intermediate secondary
forests and small fragments (<100 ha), which correspond
to approximately 32–40% of what remains. More than 80%
of the fragments are <50 ha, almost half the remaining
forest is <100 m from its edges, the average distance
between fragments is large (≈1.5 km) and nature reserves
protect only 9% of the remaining forest and 1% of the
original forest.
Thank you !
38 native arboreal
species – at least 50
georeferenced points
of occurrence
Selected from 107
inventories
18 Early secondary
20 Late secondary
Thank you !
Genetic Algorithm for
Ruleset Prediction
GARP
Maximum Entropy
modeling of species
geographic
distribution
MaxEnt
CE
NÁ
RIO
SC
LIM
ÁT
ICO
SPA
RA
OB
RA
SIL
Ha
dle
y C
en
ter
sc
en
ari
os o
f c
lim
ate
ch
an
ge
fo
r
20
50
Op
tim
isti
c <
2oC
P
essim
isti
c ≥
2 o
C
Geographic distribution of
Calyptranthes grandifolia O. Berg.
(Myrtaceae) 1 – present registered
occurrence; 2 projection of
occurrence area in 2050 with the
optimistic scenario; 3 projection of
occurrence area in 2050 with the
pessimistic scenario of global
warming.
1 2
3
- 5%
- 30%
Geographic distribution of
Chrysophyllum flexuosum Mart.
(Sapotaceae) 1 – present registered
occurrence; 2 projection of
occurrence area in 2050 with the
optimistic scenario; 3 projection of
occurrence area in 2050 with the
pessimistic scenario of global
warming.
1
+ 10%
2
3
- 30%
Geographic distribution of Euterpe edulis Mart.
(Arecaceae) – Palm hart. 1 – present registered
occurrence; 2 projection of occurrence area in 2050
with the optimistic scenario; 3 projection of
occurrence area in 2050 with the pessimistic
scenario of global warming.
Areas of medium probability of occurrence
Areas of low probability of occurrence
Areas were the species does not occur
Areas of registered occurrence or high probability of occurrence
1
2
3
2
Geographic distribution of Mata Atlântica sensu lato in 2050
with the optimistic scenario.
- 24,6%
Euterpe edulis Mart.Present
2070 optimist 2070 pessimist
INPE – MIROC scenarios of climate change for 2070 & 2100
Optimistic ≤ 2oC Pessimistic > 2 oC
Present
2100 optimist 2100 pessimist
INPE – MIROC scenarios of climate change for 2070 & 2100
Optimistic ≤ 2oC Pessimistic > 2 oC
There are no differences between Early and Late Secondary
species
Functional Group % Km2 Significance
Optimistic scenario
Early Secondary 24,32 1.969.730,56 <0
Late Secondary 24,91 2.072.841,25 <0
Pessimistic scenario
Early Secondary 55,34 2.936.873,75 <0
Late Secondary 53,93 2.709.618,06 <0