3.- step 1 - searching for stocks
TRANSCRIPT
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5-Step Investing Formula
Online Course Manual
Step 1: Searching for Stocks
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2005 INVESTools Inc. All rights reserved
3Section 3 of
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SECTION 3 Step 1: Searching for Stocks
Using a Prebuilt Search .........................................................................5
Navigating the List of Stocks .................................................................7
Section ContentsSection Contents
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INTRODUCTION
SECTION 1 Getting Started
Logging into the INVESTools Investor Toolbox
Support Links
Workshop Review
Account Information
Subscription RenewalTechnical Support
Contact an Instructor
SECTION 2 Introduction to Investing
Tolerance for Risk
Setting Goals
Asset Allocation
Tax Exposure
Brokerage Firms
Introduction to the 5-Step Investing Formula
THE 5-STEP INVESTING FORMULA
SECTION 3 Step 1: Searching for Stocks
Using a Prebuilt Search
Navigating the List of Stocks
SECTION 4 Step 2: Industry Group Analysis
Top-Down Analysis
Big Chart
AutoAnalyzing All Stocks in a Group
Best & Worst Industries List
SECTION 5 Step 3: Fundamental Analysis
Phase 1
Phase 2Price Pattern
Volatility
Zacks Report
Market Guide
News
AutoAnalyzer
SECTION 6 Step 4: Technical Analysis
Technical Indicators
Moving Averages
MACD
Stochastics
Volume
Support & Resistance
Buy Signals
Money Management
Sell Stop Orders
How Many Shares to Buy
Sell Signals
Insider Trading
SECTION 7 Step 5: Portfolio Management
Creating a Portfolio
Managing Your Portfolio
Paper Trading Account
BONUS SECTION
SECTION 8 Bonus Topics
TurboSearch
Index Tracking Stocks / Exchange-Traded Funds
Dow Jones Industrial Average
The Diamonds (DIA)
S&P 500The Spider (SPY)
NASDAQThe Qs (QQQQ)
SECTION 9 Introduction to Options
Advantages/Risks of Options
Leverage
Call Options
Put Options
Covered Calls
SECTION 10 Appendix
Phase 2 Stock Scoring Form
Phase 2 Quick List for Zacks Report and
Market Guide
Investment Tracking Record
SECTION 11 Glossary
Course Overview
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Searching for a stock is the first step to systematic investing. Knowing how
to look for stocks puts you in control of your investing. Good investors are not
controlled by their investments; instead, they control their investments. You,
too, can do this using prebuilt search tools to find positive stocks quickly and
easily... making it a cinch to be consistent and in control of yo ur investing.
Experts in both investing and technology have put together the Investor
Toolbox prebuilt searches to find specific stocks according to certain criteria.
These searches are also backtested, which is a process of looking at historicalresults generated over time. Only searches that have performed well are
posted.
The Investor Toolbox offers over 50 different prebuilt searches to help you
find potential investment candidates. Each prebuilt search looks at all the
stocks in the database using specific screening criteria and displays the top 25
stocks that most closely match the criteria of the search you choose.
With a simple click of the mouse, you can easily find 25 of the best stocks
from the entire database in just a few seconds.
Step 1: Searching for Stocks
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Using a Prebuilt Search
To use the Investor Toolbox prebuilt
searches, follow these three steps:
Step 1:
Click on the Searches tab located on the
Investor Toolbox main toolbar.
The main search page will appear with
more than 50 different prebuilt searches to
select from, as seen here.
One of the first questions people often ask
is, Which of all these searches should
I run? Because there may be some
confusion as to which search you should
use when you first start out, we put together
a list of our instructors favorite searches.
Each instructor offered a search that he/she
has found good success with to put in thelist. These searches are listed at the top of
the page.
You can click on the notepad icon for an in-
depth description of a particular search.
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When you click on a search notepad icon, a
screen comes up describing that particular
search in detail. It tells you exactly what
criteria the search is looking for and how it
works to find investments.
Caution: Dont get too caught up in how
the searches work. How they are built is
not important. What is important is finding
good, solid stocks.
Step 2:
To perform a search, click on one of the
prebuilt searches. For the purpose of
this example, well use Great Earnings,Sales, C.F. Growththis search looks for
companies with great earnings, sales, and
cash flow growth.
The computer then searches its database of
over 12,000 stocks to find the top 25 stocks
that best meet the criteria of the search you
selected.
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The top 25 stocks are displayed on the
search results page, as seen to the right.
Note: Dont just buy the first stock on the
list. Statistically speaking, the 25th stock is
as good as the first because it is still one ofthe best stocks out of 12,000 found by the
search. Also, just because a stock appears
in the search results does not mean its one
you want to invest in. Its not unusual to
eliminate many of these stocks as you go
through a more rigorous analysis (described
later). You are looking for the best of the
best, not just a good stock that matched
search criteria.
When looking at the search results table,
if a stock symbol has four or more letters,
the stock is traded on the NASDAQ or theover-the-counter exchange. If the stock
symbol is less than four letters, it is traded
on the New York Stock Exchange or the
American Stock Exchange. When you
click on any of the symbol links listed on
the search results page, a graph of that
particular stock comes up.
Step 3:
Scroll down the page to see the entire listof the top 25 stocks that meet the criteria of
the search you selected.
Navigating the List of Stocks
The search results table consists of
ten columns made up of the following
information:
Select: Allows you to quickly view charts
of selected stocks or automatically add
selected stocks to a portfolio.
Symbol: The ticker used to represent a
company. Each symbol is a clickable link
that takes you to the stock chart.
Name: The company name.
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Group: The stocks industry group symbol.
This symbol is a link that takes you to a
chart of that industry group (discussed later
in more detail).
Options: Signifies whether or not thatparticular stock offers options. It is a
clickable link that takes you to the options
available for that company, if applicable.
Price: The current stock price, per share.
Phase 1: The undervalued filter of the
stock, which is used in fundamental
analysis (to be discussed).
MG-Zacks Combined Score: Automated
fundamental score (discussed later).
Price Pattern Score: Automated price
pattern score (to be discussed).
Volatility: Automated volatility score (to be
discussed later).
Stock Symbol
Once youve selected a stock to look at
we will use Corinthian Colleges (COCO)
for the purpose of this exampleclick onthe stock symbol link.
This brings up a one-year stock graph for
that company.
Note: In the right-hand corner above
the stock graph are arrows next to stock
symbols. These symbols are the previous
and next stocks in the list of stocks returned
from your search. The arrow links allow
you to click to the next or previous stock
graph on the list. You can continue through
the list of 25 search results by clickingforward or backward on the arrows next to
the symbols.
The graph is always a 12-month graph
by default, with the most recent month
appearing on the right side of the graph.
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Below the chart are the time span buttons,
which you can use to change the time frame
of the graph. For example, when you click
one of these buttons, you can bring up a
one-month (1-M) or five-year (5-Y) graph
of a stock (as well as the other time framesnoted).
On the one-year chart, each bar of data
represents one full day of trading (the high,
low, and closing price of each day).
If youd like a better view of a recent buy
or sell signal, you can magnify the signal
by using the one-month, three-month, or
six-month view. On these charts, each bar
still represents one full day of trading. The
buy and sell signals will appear exactly the
same on each of these charts.
This is an example of the one-month graph
for COCO.
If you use the one-day, five-day, or ten-
day charts, each bar represents just a few
minutes of time. This information gives
you day-trading signals, which are different
from the buy and sell signals on the one-
month to one-year charts.
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If you click on the five-year or ten-year
chart, each bar of data represents a full
week of trading. These charts provide long-
term buy and sell signals that are at least
five times longer than the signals on the
one-year chart. If you are more interested in
the buy-and-hold strategy, these signals are
more appropriate.
This is an example of the five-year graph
for COCO.
The indicators are automatically applied to
a chart. To remove these indicators, click
on the Basic Chart link in the menu on
the left-hand side of the page.
Looking at a chart without the indicators is
not a necessity, but the capability is there if
you want it.
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The interactive graph is a powerful charting
tool developed for our more advanced
students. It is not something covered in
detail in this class.
To bring up an interactive graph of thestock, click on Interactive Chart in the
left-hand menu.
This chart includes additional tools for
basic and more advanced technical analysis,
including trendlines, historical on-screen
data and other customized features.
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Interactive graphs also allow you to use
candlestick charting and other tools, if you
prefer.
Industry Groups
To look at the industry groups of the stocks
in your search results, go back to the search
results page and go over to Groups in the
fourth column.
All industry groups consist of three letters
that identify the industry group. If you click
on the industry group symbol (.EDU inour example), it brings up a graph of that
industry group. The period in front of the
symbol notates its an industry group.
Note: The period must be included when
you manually enter the industry group
symbol into the Quote field; otherwise
the system tries to find the stock EDU
instead of the industry group.
The basic function of the industry group
chart is to tell you which way the group is
moving and if institutional money (such as
mutual funds) is moving into the stocks in
that group. If this is happening, the group
will generally move up. Industry group
movement often affects stock movement, so
look to see which direction the industry is
moving. You want to invest in stocks with
uptrending groups, as this shows support
for continued upward movement in the
stock.
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There are times when youll find an
excellent stock opportunityeverything
about it is great, except its industry group.
You almost always want the stocks
industry group moving upward, as this
shows that institutional investors areentering the industry group stocks a key
ingredient to significant moves in stocks.
Back on the search results page, click on
the industry group of our example stock
(COCO), which is .EDU.
The graph for .EDU will appear.
In our example, the industry group is
clearly trending upward.
Options
Back on the search results page, click on
the Options link.
Note: If this column is blank for the stock
youre looking at, there are no options
available for that stock.
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Clicking on the options link for a stock
brings up the option quotes table for that
stock. The table lists all available options
(both calls and puts) for the stock.
Information on stock options is coveredin detail in the INVESTools Investor
Education Basic Options course; however,
we will cover some of the basics here.
An option is a contract that gives the buyer
of the option the right to buy or sell a stock
at a set price before the option expires.
Think of it as a lease-to-own on a house:
lets say you pay cash (premium) to the
owner of a house and receive a contract
that allows you to buy the house at the set
price (strike price) of $150,000 before thecontract expires (expiration date). If you
pay $2,000 for a lease-to-own contract, it
gives you the right to buy the house for
$150,000 anytime you want as long as
you do so before the contract expires.
During the term of the contract, suppose
some large multimillion-dollar homes
are built on your same street, increasing
the value of your house to $200,000. You
have a contract that has intrinsic value of
$50,000 (200,000 - 150,000 = 50,000).
At this point there are three things you can
do with your contract:
1. Nothing: let it expire.
2. Exercise it: buy the house for
$150,000 and then sell it for
$200,000, for a $50,000 profit
(minus the original premium of
$2,000).
3. Sell it: sell the contract to someone
else for $50,000, giving that
person the right to buy the house
for $150,000.
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Option contracts work in a very similar
way:
1. They have an expiration date set
at 11:59 a.m. the 3rd Saturday of
the expiration month. Since the
markets are not open on Saturday,
most traders refer to the expiration
as the third Friday of each month,
as that is the last day contracts are
traded on the open market.
2. They have a strike price, which
is the price at which you agree to
buy or sell the stock.
3. They have a premium, which is
the amount of money exchanged to
buy and sell the option contract.
Key Points of an Options Table
Looking at the options table for COCO,
the stocks current price ($56.69) and its
change for the day (-$0.59) appear in the
upper right-hand corner.
On the left-hand side of the table are the
call options. You want to buy call options if
you expect the stock to increase in value.
On the right-hand side of the table are theput options. You want to buy put options if
you expect the stock to drop in value.
Separating the calls and puts on this table
is the expiration date column (October) and
the strike prices of the available options.
Other key facts about options:
Each option contract controls 100
shares of stock. Option quotes are
displayed on a per-share basis. To
calculate the true cost of one optioncontract, multiply the quoted option
price by 100.
The last day to trade option
contracts on the open market is the
third Friday of the month indicated.
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You do not have to hold an option
until the expiration date; they trade
every day in a similar manner to
stocks.
An important difference between astock and an option is that an option
expires after a certain length of
time. As a result, if the underlying
stock price does not move as you
expected, the option you hold will
expire worthless.
Now that we have the basics of an option,
lets look at an option trade versus a stock
trade.
In this example of CTSH, the stock has
been moving steadily higher since early
June. In mid-August, the stock shows three
green arrows, one on the 30-day moving
average, one on the MACD, and one on
the stochastics. The stock also trades in
an uptrending industry and scores well in
Phase 2. In other words, during this time,
the stock is giving a buy signal (which
you will learn about in detail later in the
course).
If we wanted to, we could buy the stock atits current price of $30.20 or we could buy
an option on the stock instead.
In our example of CTSH, well look in
the options table at the October options.
We want a strike price that is close to the
current price of the stock, like the October
$30 call option listed.
The ticker symbol for the October $30 call
on CTSH is UPU JF. It is trading at $1.80
x $1.85. If we buy it, it would cost us $1.85
per share or $185 per contract (remember,
each option contract controls 100 shares).
So to control 100 shares of stock costs only
$185 using a call option versus actually
buying 100 shares of the stock, which
would cost $3,020.
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Once we buy UPU JF, we have the right to
buy 100 shares of CTSH for $30 anytime
before the option market closes on the third
Friday of October. Our goal, however, in
buying an option is not to buy the stock,
but instead to sell the option and make aprofit.
Looking at CTSH four weeks later, it
reaches $39 per share and starts to decline
in value, just as the MACD and stochastics
are showing red arrows. At this point it
looks as if the stock is starting to pull back.
Even though the stock is still in an uptrend,
it is starting to show signs of weakness.
This is a point at which many option traders
consider selling the option they previously
bought.
At this point, the option ticker symbol UPU
JF is trading at $7.40 x $7.60 and can be
sold for $7.40/share.
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The difference between the option trade
versus the stock trade can best be seen
in the comparison table. To purchase the
option would have cost $1.85/share versus
$30.20/share for the stock. The option has
much less money at risk.
Even with 1/15th the investment, you
would have made almost exactly the same
amount of money with the option as you
would have with the stock. The return on
investment, however, was dramatically
different. The option returned 300%, while
the stock returned 18.7% over the same
time frame.
The one drawback to this option trade
versus the stock trade is that the option is
a timed investment and is good only untilthe option market closes on the third Friday
of October. You can, however, choose
an option with a longer expiration if you
believe it will take longer for the stock
to make its upward move. The more time
you buy in an option contract, the more
expensive it will be but also the more
conservative it will be.
Options provide leverage, which is a
double-edged sword. Used correctly,
leverage can be an investors most powerfulally; used incorrectly, it can be an investors
worst enemy. Education is the difference.
Options have been used for years to both
reduce risk and exposure in the market and
accelerate returns. As you progress with
your investing education, you will want to
learn more about this area of the market
an area many of our students have cited as
incredibly profitable.
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Price
The stock price is listed in the
Price column of the table. This price is
updated throughout the day on a 15-20
minute delayed basis.
Phase 1
The Phase 1 score, used for fundamental
analysis purposes, is listed in the next
column. For COCO, the Phase 1 score
is 5/2. Phase 1 scores are explained
in greater detail in the chapter entitled
Fundamental Analysis.
Phase 2 Scores
Also listed are the automated numerical
scores for Market Guide-Zacks, pricepattern, and volatility, which will be
discussed in great detail in this course.
You can also click on selected stocks to
import directly into a portfolio of your
choosing (dont forget to save the stocks
once added) and View Selected Symbols
as Chart Thumbnails.
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In addition, you can sort the search results
by any of the headings listed: Name,
Group, Phase 1, MG-Zacks, etc., by
clicking on that column heading. In this
example, they are listed according to the
MG-Zacks scores.
Select
From the search results table you can
also select stocks to put in a portfolio to
watch. To do this, select the box next to
the stock(s) you want to put in a watchlist
portfolio.
Once youve selected the stocks, click
on the Copy selected symbols into a
portfolio link. This will save those stocks
in a watchlist portfolio, which you will
need to title.
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Step 1 Summary
The prebuilt search tools in the Investor
Toolbox make it quick and easy to find
potential investments from a database of
over 12,000 stocks.
A computer-based search tool is
unemotional, bringing back the best-of-
the-best stocks many youve never
heard of. The results match the criteria in
the particular search youve chosen. This
will help you to be more rational in your
decision-making process and more effective
in your investing.
No matter how good a system you have, it
wont work if you dont follow these three
important investing characteristics:
1. Discipline: follow the system.
2. Patience: wait for signals.
3. Controlled emotions: trust your
own analysis and take input, but
dont be overly swayed by the
opinion of others; do the right thing
for the right reason and know why
youre doing it.
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