4-6 may 2009 co-hosted by naomi surgi , mark demaria , richard pasch, frank marks
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OVERVIEW Hurricane Diagnostics/Verification Workshop. 4-6 May 2009 Co-hosted by Naomi Surgi , Mark DeMaria , Richard Pasch, Frank Marks. Purpose of Workshop: - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
4-6 May 2009
Co-hosted by
Naomi Surgi, Mark DeMaria, Richard Pasch, Frank Marks
4-6 May 2009
Co-hosted by
Naomi Surgi, Mark DeMaria, Richard Pasch, Frank Marks
OVERVIEW
Hurricane Diagnostics/Verification Workshop
OVERVIEW
Hurricane Diagnostics/Verification Workshop
Purpose of Workshop:
To bring together expertise in the hurricane research and operational communities to launch a concerted diagnostics activity to improve NHC’s numerical guidance
Objective/Goals:
to provide feedback to both operational model developers and to hurricane forecasters for near term transition into operations and to research modelers to develop useful methods for assessing forecast quality in various phases of model development.
Observations from both satellite and in situ platforms…… and model verification are critical to assist this effort
Max Mayfield left this for me on my desk (after he Max Mayfield left this for me on my desk (after he worked a mid shift)…………worked a mid shift)…………
!!!!!!
Statistical
Dynamical
Over the past decade(s) – LOTS of model data has been generated by the various global and regional operational hurricane models, e.g. the NCEP GFS, NOGAPS, UKMO, the GFDL model and for the past two seasons the HWRF.
For GFDL, HWRF….for track AND intensity
Bad forecasts, good forecasts (sometimes very surprisingly so)…..
But little feedback as to why…..
Also, sometimes model biases are noted, e.g. GFS northward bias in central tropical ATL; NOGAPs strong westerly bias; GFDL strong intensity bias (sheared environments); ……
HWRF?
Are these systematic model biases? Vary w/basin? Artifact of the season?
Related to initial errors; physics?
Most importantly (once identified) HOW TO FIX?
PERFECT !
Some examples
HWRFGFDL
HURRICANE FAY
H. GUSTAV
HWRF
Several models had skillful 5 day forecasts when Gustav was still east of Jamaica targeting the central LA coast
Most model forecasts did not target Galveston for IKE landfall until ~ 36 hrs. before landfall
H. IKE
HWRF GFDL
HURRICANE BERTHA
GLOBAL vs. Regional
NORBERTNORBERT
HWRF Track
HWRF Track
Hurricane Flossie
Fcst 081200
Fcst 081212
FLIP FLOP
TS BARBARATS BARBARA
GFDL,GFDL, AVNO,AVNO, UKM,UKM, NGPS,NGPS, HWRFHWRF
None of the models could get a grip on this forecast!
Hurricane Hurricane HenrietteHenriette
GFDLGFDL
Nearly a Nearly a perfect perfect forecast….. forecast…..
HWRF 126H FORECAST OF HURRICANE DEAN
CAT5
CAT2
HWRF forecast both landfall intensities
Can you trust this forecast?
We’re making progress…but We’re making progress…but many difficult problems ahead many difficult problems ahead
Felix - Vmax (kts)Felix - Vmax (kts) Humberto 2007 9/09-9/12Humberto 2007 9/09-9/12
Franklin - Vmax (kts)Franklin - Vmax (kts)
DennisDennis
WilmaWilma
Track Track impacts impacts intensityintensity
Interesting way research Interesting way research models show forecastsmodels show forecasts
Need to be very careful……Need to be very careful……
Research model forecasts of storm intensity for Hurricane Katrina showing benefit of high (1.6 km) resolution
High-res models (1.6km)
NHC Forecast
Obs
Katrina Landfall
GFDL model
Global models
High-res models (1.6km)
NHC Forecast
Obs
Katrina Landfall
GFDL model
Global models
Research model forecasts of storm intensity for Hurricane Katrina showing benefit of high (1.6km) resolution
Intensity Forecast of Hurricane Katrina 0000 UTC 27 August 2005
HWRF model
HWRF
IN FACT:
• From 114 hrs to 60 hrs before landfall, seven HWRF forecasts predicted rapid intensification of Hurricane Katrina, predicting Category 5 Hurricane
• Three HWRF forecasts predicted Category 3 landfall for Hurricane Katrina
• Three HWRF forecasts of max. intensity coincided with observed maximum intensity
Operational models are becoming very complex….
Coupled to ocean, waves, land surface model
Same issues…..
We must begin to identify systematic biases
What observations do we have? Are still needed?
Workshop objective:
When we leave here……
What are the activities? WHO is going to do what?
HousekeepingHousekeeping
AgendaAgenda
Enough time for discussionEnough time for discussion
THANK YOU HFIP for supportTHANK YOU HFIP for support