500,00,000.00 714285 · 2020-07-20 · in addition, we have no obligation to notify you when...
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500,00,000.00
714285.7143
Long term (3 to 6 Months)
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● MCX to allow negative price in crude futures trading from July 27
● Banks sanction Rs 1.23 trn loans to MSMEs under credit guarantee scheme
● FPIs pull out Rs 9,015 cr in July so far, remain net sellers in Indian mkts
Rupee opens higher tracking
gains in Asian currencies
● China keeps benchmark lending rate steady for 3rd straight month
● Japan govt to pay at least $536 million for companies to leave China
IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net |
From CEO's Desk
Medium term (Upto 3 Months) Intraday
Note: The above outlook is based on IFA Global Research Academy Proprietary ("IFA Dollar - Rupee Sentiment Index") based on various
techno-fundamental factors relevant to the particular outlook horizon. The index weights have been arrived at after rigorous back testing.
The factors which are considered for computation of barometers includes pre-defined and back tested weightage given to fundamental
factors such as economic data, FII flows, Global equity markets, Government & RBI activity, Onshore-offshore activity, other peer currency
performance and other macro economic factors. Further, this module also considers factors such as major MPC member's speech,
meeting or summit. On the technical front, factors include indicators and oscillators such as RSI, stochastic, combination of moving
averages and other basic & advance technical studies. (0 - 20%=extremely bearish, 21% - 40%=bearish, 41% - 60%=neutral, 61% -
80%=bullish, 81% - 100% extremely bullish)
News On The Street
55% 76% 75%
Mr. Abhishek Goenka
The EU leaders failed to reach an agreement over the EUR 750bn Recovery plan
despite the summit having been extended by a day. Countries labelled the 'frugal four'
want reforms to be linked to the grants. Dutch Prime Minister Rutte especially has been
very vocal about the need to disburse grants based on end use criteria and
commensurate reforms being undertaken. The US Senate would convene again post
the recess from today onwards. The key focus would be on the fourth and final
stimulus package. The details in particular that would matter most would be the size of
checks and eligibility criteria (income threshold) for receiving checks and whether a
cut in payroll taxes is part of the stimulus. The market is expecting the stimulus
package to be anywhere between USD 1-1.5Tn. A liberal stimulus package would be
risk positive and Dollar negative in general and vice versa. Not much on the data front
this week. RBI's FX Reserves rose by another USD 3.1bn to a record USD 516.3bn. We
may continue to see the Rupee trade in the 74.50-75.50 range if the US Dollar remains
stable globally. We could see 74.50 get tested again. Among Asian currencies,
Indonesian Rupiah continues to weaken. Rupee is likely to trade 74.75-75.15 with
down side bias. Equities are likely to trade with a positive bias.
Strategy: Exporters were advised to cover around 75.50 through forwards. At lower
levels only cover through option strategy. Importers are advised to hold maintaining a
stop loss of 75.50 or cover through risk reversals options. The 3M range for USDINR is
73.60 - 76.50 and the 6M range is 73.00 – 77.00.
IFA Dollar- Rupee Sentiment Index
“USDINR
$ INDEX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
GOLD
”
July 20, 2020
0.6450- 0.7100
105.50-110.00 ↓
Q2 FY 2020-21
FX Outlook for the day
95.50- 99.50 ↓
1.0950-1.1450 ↑ 1.1200-1.1800 ↑
Q3 FY 2020-21
0.6800- 0.7500
96.00- 100.00
1.2000-1.2600 1.2400-1.3000 ↑
0.6500- 0.7000
95.00- 100.00 ↓ 95.00- 100.00 ↓
$1550- $1850 ↑
1.1000-1.1650 ↑
1.2600-1.3200 ↑
73.00 - 77.00 ↑73.00-77.00 ↑
$1600- $1900 ↑
105.00-109.00 ↓
● USDINR (RANGE- 74.75 - 75.15)
The dollar is broadly weak as investors bet on more stimulus from
Europe and the United States. Expectations of more government
spending have offset worries about rising coronavirus cases in the
United States as well as fears over deteriorating U.S.-China relations.
Japan's trade Balance total recovered from ¥-838.2 Bn previous
readings to ¥-268.8 Bn but stayed below ¥-35.8 Bn forecast.
USDINR pair opened lower below 75.00 mark as the Rupee
strengthened tracking gains in Asian peers coupled with positive global
equities. We could see 74.50 get tested again. RBI is likely to continue
preventing the Rupee from strengthening too much in relative terms
and contain the volatility. We may continue to see the Rupee trade in
the 74.50-75.50 range if the US Dollar remains stable globally.
The EU leaders failed to reach an agreement over the EUR 750bn
Recovery plan despite the summit having been extended by a day.
Countries labelled the 'frugal four' want reforms to be linked to the
grants. However, the fact that EU leaders continue to remain
committed to the plan is preventing the Euro from depreciating steeply.
The leaders may eventually settle for a 50/50 loan to grant ratio.
● USDJPY (RANGE- 106.90 - 107.60)
Q4 FY 2020-21
● EURUSD (RANGE- 1.1350 - 1.1470)
IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net |
Pound remains under pressure amid the lack of progress in Brexit talks
and rising prospects of negative interest rates. BOE’s Governor Bailey
said that interest rates will stay very low and expressed concerns about
QE. Meanwhile, PM Boris Johnson eased some lockdown measures on
Friday, but also announced local authorities will have power to shut
down smaller areas of the country if necessary.
● GBPUSD (RANGE- 1.2480 - 1.2570)
IFA Outlook
Q1 FY 2021-22
73.00-76.00 ↑
DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT
$1600- $1850 ↑
EU summit, Brexit
headlines and macro
data to set the theme
for the short term.
$1450- $1800 ↑
107.00-112.00 106.00-111.00
1.0800-1.1450 ↓
73.60-76.50 ↑
1.2300-1.2800 ↑
0.6600-0.7100 ↑
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● FII activity against USDINR and Nifty
July 20, 2020
Highest OI for Put
stands at 75.00 and
for Call at 75.50 &
76.00. Highest OI
intraday
buildup is at 75.50
Call and unwinding
at 74.50 Put
Chart of the Day USDINR Spot: 74.95
● USDINR Open Interest (July expiry )
DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT
USDINR pair gave a gap down opening today at 74.92.
Daily middle bollinger level held as strong resistance in
the last one week. Currently, it has shifted to 75.30.
74.90 - 75.00 range is the immediate support zone. The
intraday view for the pair remains neutral to bearish.
FIIs have so far
withdrawn $15.14
billion in the
calendar year 2020
Activity Kurtosis
IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net |
LIBOR ON 1M 6M 1Y MONTH 1M 3M 1Y 2Y
USD 0.09 0.18 0.33 0.47 USDINR 0.22 0.68 2.88 6.51
EUR -0.58 -0.49 -0.40 -0.29 EURINR 0.32 0.95 4.01 8.96
JPY 0.04 -0.07 -0.03 0.10 GBPINR 0.30 0.90 3.80 8.54
JPYINR 0.23 0.72 3.11 7.08
REGION LAST % CHANGE LAST CHANGE % CHANGE
ASIA 25183 0.37 1809.00 -0.85 -0.05
3298 2.62 19.71 -0.05 -0.26
22704 0.03 42.88 -0.26 -0.60
INDIA 37394 1.01 96.15 0.21 0.21
11008 0.98 103.10 -0.08 -0.08
EUROPE 5069 -0.31
12920 0.35 FY 2020-21 CY 2020 17-Jul-20
6290 0.63 23,459 -24,571 -1,202
US 26672 -0.23 -31,191 -93,786 -866
10503 0.28 2,446 4,797 4
-5,286 -1,13,560 -2,064
“ Pivot S2 S1 P R1 R2
USDINR 74.16 74.68 75.01 75.53 75.86
EURINR 84.45 84.71 84.94 85.20 85.43
GBPINR 92.13 93.52 94.38 95.77 96.63
JPYINR 68.71 69.51 70.03 70.83 71.35
”
Currency Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
17-Jul EUR 2:30 PM 0.30% 0.3% 0.1% Neutral
USD 6:00 PM 1.241M 1.290M 1.216M Bearish
20-Jul JPY 5:20 AM -268.8Bn -35.8B -838.2B Bearish
CNY 7:00 AM 3.85% -- 3.85% Neutral
EUR 11:30 AM 0.2% -0.4%
CAC
DAX
Major Global Rates
LIBOR Rates
COMMODITIES/DIGLOBAL INDICES
Quick Glance
FPI INFLOWS
Bloomberg ADXY
GOLD ($/ounce)
Brent ($/brl)
SILVER ($/ounce)
HANG SENG
SHANGHAI
NIKKEI
SENSEX
NIFTY
Dollar INDEX
Rolling Forward Premiums (in paise)
Figures are in INR Crores
IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net |
Major Global Events
Macro Monitor
TOTAL
EQUITY
CPI (YoY) (Jun)
DEBT
Trade Balance (Jun)
German PPI (MoM) (Jun)
FTSE
PBoC Loan Prime Rate
Building Permits (Jun)
Pivot Points
HYBRID
GBPINR is likely to find support at S1
(93.52)
DOW
NASDAQ
DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT July 20, 2020
IMPORTANT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER
While every effort has been made to ensure that the data quoted and used for the research behind this document is reliable, there is no guarantee that it is correct, and IFA Global can accept no liability whatsoever in respect of any errors or omissions, or regarding the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. This document does not constitute a recommendation to sell and/or buy any financial products and is not to be considered as a solicitation and/or an offer to enter into any transaction. This document is a piece of economic research and is not intended to constitute investment advice, nor to solicit dealing in securities or in any other kind of investments. Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. IFA Global makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change. Any prices stated in this report are for information purposes only and do not represent valuations for individual securities or other instruments.
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