50,000,000.00 714285...strategy: exporters are advised to cover 1 month exposure through risk...
TRANSCRIPT
50,000,000.00
714285.7143
Long term (3 to 6 Months)
“
”
● U.S., Russia agree to oil market talks as Trump calls price war 'crazy'
From CEO's Desk
Medium term (Upto 3 Months) Intraday
Note: The above outlook is based on IFA Global Research Academy Proprietary ("IFA Dollar - Rupee Sentiment Index") based on various
techno-fundamental factors relevant to the particular outlook horizon. The index weights have been arrived at after rigorous back
testing. The factors which are considered for computation of barometers includes pre-defined and back tested weightage given to
fundamental factors such as economic data, FII flows, Global equity markets, Government & RBI activity, Onshore-offshore activity, other
peer currency performance and other macro economic factors. Further, this module also considers factors such as major MPC member's
speech, meeting or summit. On the technical front, factors include indicators and oscillators such as RSI, stochastic, combination of
moving averages and other basic & advance technical studies. (0 - 20%=extremely bearish, 21% - 40%=bearish, 41% - 60%=neutral, 61% -
80%=bullish, 81% - 100% extremely bullish)
News On The Street
69% 76% 75%
Mr. Abhishek Goenka
Crude prices fell to their lowest levels in 18 years yesterday as markets fear the world
may run out of storage space. There is massive inventory build up as demand has
taken a hit while Saudi and Russia disagreement over production cuts has kept supply
intact. The crude market is trading in a what is called a super contango. The spread
between the May contract and the November contract was the highest on record.
There is still stress in the funding market in the US. The LIBOR is still elevated despite
humongous liquidity injection by the US Fed. The stress is not being reflected in the
FX markets as of now but is certainly something to keep an eye on.
The tremendous liquidity injection by central banks is seeming to keep global equities
afloat. The Dow ended the session 3.2% higher yesterday.
Likely range for the USDINR is 75.15-75.65. Asian currencies are trading stronger
against the USD.
The RBI received 2.4 times the bid to cover yesterday's TLTRO auction of Rs 25000cr. It
has also announced the second tranche of Rs 25000cr to be conducted on 3rd April.
The RBI announced FAR (fully accessible route) for non residents to invest in Gsec.
Investment by FPI in securities in this category would be besides their usual limit in
Gsecs. This is one more step towards bond index inclusion. The RBI has also increased
FPI limit in corporate bonds to 15%.
Strategy: Exporters are advised to cover 1 month exposure through Risk Reversal
option Strategy.(Buy 75.50 put @0.60 paise, Sell Call 77.00 @0.44). Importers are go
advised to go for back to back hedging. The 3M range for USDINR is 73.00 - 77.00
and the 6M range is 72.0 – 78.00 considering panic situation amid covid-19 spread.
IFA Dollar- Rupee Sentiment Index
● WHO says coronavirus outbreak in Europe may be approaching peak
● Japan to boost government bond issuance by $149 billion to fund stimulus
Crude oil price drops to 18
year lows
● Asia stocks rise as Chinese factory activity picks up
● RBI opens up key government bonds to full foreign investment
IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net | www.treasuryelite.com| Blog: www.abhishekgoenka.com
“USDINR
$ INDEX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
AUDUSD
GOLD
”
1.0700-1.1250 ↓
$1450- $1800 ↑ $1450- $1800 ↑$1500- $1700 ↑
98.50- 101.00 ↑
1.2800-1.3800
Q4 FY 2019-20
DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT
● GBPUSD (RANGE- 1.2280 -1.2400)
IFA Outlook
Q3 FY 2020-21
72.50 - 77.00 ↑72.00-78.00 ↑
1.1000-1.1650 ↑
$1500- $1750 ↑
IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net | www.treasuryelite.com| Blog: www.abhishekgoenka.com
Investors will
continue to sell
emerging-market
assets and swap the
proceeds into the
global reserve
currency (US dollar)
73.00-77.00 ↑
106.00-111.00 ↓
1.1200-1.1800 ↑
1.1800-1.2500 ↓
0.5800-0.6300 ↓ 0.6450- 0.7100
95.00- 100.00 ↓
102.00-108.00 105.00-110.00
1.0600-1.1200
● USDINR (RANGE- 75.15 - 75.65)
The USDJPY pair staged a modest rebound yesterday, boosted by the
broad-based USD strength. Dollar index has regained 99 mark.
However, risk off sentiment is keeping the pair's upside capped for the
time being. Japanese government's coronavirus expert panel noted
that there were no signs for an "explosive rise" in the number of
confirmed infection in Japan.
The USDINR pair opened lower today by 18 paise to 75.44. Lower
crude oil prices, mild recovery in Yuan and positive domestic equities
likely to cap the gains in the pair. Further, RBI intervention and
updates on Coronavirus cases from the domestic front to play
secondary role. The RBI announced FAR (fully accessible route),
opening gates for NRIs to invest in Gsec.
Q1 FY 2020-21
71.00-76.00 ↑
0.6800- 0.7500
Q2 FY 2020-21
● EURUSD (RANGE- 1.0970 - 1.1070)
106.50-111.00 ↓
March 31, 2020
FX Outlook for the day
97.00- 100.00
1.1600-1.2600 ↓ 1.2800-1.3800
0.6500- 0.7000
95.00- 100.00 ↓
The pound weakened against the dollar but comparatvely less than
other currencies after it was revealed post-Brexit technical trade talks
would take place this week by telephone. Any rebound will likely be
limited while official policy is that if no agreement is reached by June,
it means the UK will be leaving without any deal. The correction in the
pair can be attributed to profit booking as it rallied 7% last week.
The EURUSD pair edged lower towards 1.10 psychological mark, as
the dollar managed to recover some ground. Month end quarter flows
are usually greenback supportive. coronavirus pandemic gives no sign
of easing, taking its toll, particularly in the US and Europe. Intraday
view for the pair remains bearish.
● USDJPY (RANGE- 108.00 - 109.00)
“
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“
”
“
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Activity Kurtosis
USDINR Spot 75.50
DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT
Chart of the Day
USDINR pair is trading on a flat note after opening
lower today at 75.44. The pair is likely to trade in the
range of 74.30 - 76.30 for the short term. Bullish bias
remains intact for the day.
FIIs have so far
withdrawn $13.60
billion in the
calendar year 2020
● USDINR Open Interest (April Expiry )
IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net | www.treasuryelite.com| Blog: www.abhishekgoenka.com
● FII activity against USDINR and Nifty
March 31, 2020
Highest OI for Call
and Put stands at
74.00. Highest OI
buildup is seen at
75.50 Call and
unwinding at 76.00
Call
LIBOR ON 1M 6M 1Y MONTH 1M 3M 1Y 2Y
USD 0.12 0.98 1.09 1.01 USDINR 0.24 0.79 3.04 5.99
EUR -0.56 -0.39 -0.20 -0.19 EURINR 0.37 1.16 4.38 8.65
JPY 0.03 -0.12 -0.02 0.09 GBPINR 0.37 1.11 3.99 7.91
JPYINR 0.36 1.04 3.73 7.43
REGION LAST % CHANGE LAST CHANGE % CHANGE
ASIA 23350.00 0.71 1638.00 -4.65 -0.28
2760.00 0.47 14.24 0.11 0.76
19044.00 -0.19 21.15 1.03 5.20
INDIA 28890.00 1.58 99.30 0.11 0.11
8432.00 1.70 101.28 0.03 0.03
EUROPE 4400.00 1.30
9862.00 0.16 FY 2019-20 CY 2020 30-Mar-20
5566.00 0.20 9,777 -44,405 1,029
US 22188.00 0.10 -39,576 -60,794 -1,598
7874.00 0.25 7,700 2,352 -1
-22,099 -102,847 -570
“ Pivot S2 S1 P R1 R2
USDINR 75.08 75.31 75.55 75.79 76.05
EURINR 82.55 82.98 83.25 83.58 83.91
GBPINR 92.51 92.80 93.25 93.63 93.98
JPYINR 69.10 69.55 69.86 70.12 70.43
”
Currency Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
30-Mar EUR 5:30 PM 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% NEUTRAL
USD 7:30 PM 2.4% -1.0% 5.3% BULLISH
31-Mar CNY 6:30 AM 52.0 45.0 35.7 BULLISH
GBP 11:30 AM 0.0% 0.4%
EUR 1:25 PM 29K -10K
EUR 2:30 PM 0.8% 1.2%
USD 7:30 PM 110.0 130.7
Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
Pivot Points
NASDAQ
SENSEX
NIKKEI
German Unemployment Change (Mar)
GLOBAL INDICES
DAX
FTSE
DOW
SILVER ($/ounce)
HYBRID
March 31, 2020
Quick Glance
CAC
FPI INFLOWS
Bloomberg ADXY
GOLD ($/ounce)HANG SENG
NIFTY
WTI CRUDE ($/brl)
SHANGHAI
COMMODITIES/DI
DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT
Major Global Rates
Dollar INDEX
LIBOR Rates
IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net | www.treasuryelite.com| Blog: www.abhishekgoenka.com
Figures are in INR Crores
Major Global Events
Macro Monitor
TOTAL
EQUITY
GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
CPI (YoY) (Mar)
German CPI (MoM) (Mar)
Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb)
GBPINR is expected to face hurdle at R1
(93.63)
DEBT
CB Consumer Confidence (Mar)
Rolling Forward Premiums
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While every effort has been made to ensure that the data quoted and used for the research behind this document is reliable, there is no guarantee that it is correct, and IFA Global can accept no liability whatsoever in respect of any errors or omissions, or regarding the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. This document
does not constitute a recommendation to sell and/or buy any financial products and is not to be considered as a solicitation and/or an offer to enter into any transaction. This document is a piece of economic research and is not
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