6 sigma on golf course

6-Sigma Program& Concepts Overview

Presenters:

P. Pfaff

H. Myrie

K. Barker

Project Phases:

Measure

Analyze

Improve

Control

6

6

Meet Larry.Larry is a golfer.

His play is,shall we say,

erratic?

He wants to playmore consistently.

6-Sigma Example - Measure Phase

What is the output of Larry’s game?

Specification: Larry wants to shoot between 80 and 100 this season, with a target average score of 90.

Larry’s Golf Game

Run Chart of Larry's Scores

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1/15 2/5

2/10

2/24

2/26 3/3

3/23

4/13

4/20

4/27

5/13

5/19

5/27 6/2

6/7

Date

Sco

re

Date Score1/15 1022/5 108

2/10 1032/24 922/26 943/3 91

3/23 934/13 924/20 1064/27 1005/13 1065/19 1075/27 1116/2 1086/7 104


What is his process

capability?

How does this relate to his ZLT (Long Term) and ZST (Short Term)?

ZLT = (Cpk x 3) = -0.15 Process

ZST = (Cp x 3) = 5.64 Process**(Best Process Cp - Sources of Variation Eliminated)

Goal: Reduce the variation and move the average in Larry’s game.

12011511010510095908580

Upper SpecLower Spec

Score

s

Mean-3s

Mean+3s

Mean

n

k

LSL

USL

Targ

Cpm

Ppk

PPL

PPU

Pp

0

1158

600000

564887

0.00

0.12

60.00

56.49

Obs

PPM<LSL Exp

Obs

PPM>USL Exp

Obs

%<LSL Exp

Obs

%>USL Exp

6.937

80.322

121.945

101.133

15.000

1.113

80.000

100.000

*

*

-0.05

1.02

-0.05

0.48

Larry's Long Term Capability

100.097.595.092.590.087.585.082.580.0


ShrtTrm

s

Mean-3s

Mean+3s

Mean

n

k

LSL

USL

Targ

Cpm

Cpk

CPL

CPU

Cp

0

0

0

9

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Obs

PPM<LSL Exp

Obs

PPM>USL Exp

Obs

%<LSL Exp

Obs

%>USL Exp

1.7730

87.0809

97.7191

92.4000

5.00

0.24

80.00

100.00

*

*

1.43

2.33

1.43

1.88

Larry's Short Term Capability

Cpk = -0.05 !!!

Cp = 1.88


How do we determine the opportunity for improvement for Larry’s Game?

6.03.00

0

1.5

3.0

Con

trol

(Z

shif

t)

Technology/Skills (ZST)

ZST = 5.64ZLT = -0.15

ZSHIFT = 5.79

(ZSHIFT = ZST - ZLT)

Goal

Larry is Here

This means: Just by improving his control, Larry can achieve a 5.5 sigma game. If he wants a 6 sigma game he will also have to improve his skills.

This means: Just by improving his control, Larry can achieve a 5.5 sigma game. If he wants a 6 sigma game he will also have to improve his skills.

ImproveControl

ImproveSkills


Let’s analyze his game by breaking down his score.Where is the biggest opportunity in his overall game?

Let’s analyze his game by breaking down his score.Where is the biggest opportunity in his overall game?

LongSho rt

47077737.762.3

100.0 62.3

1000

500

0

100

80

40

20

0

Shot Type

CountPercentCum %

Cou

n t

Larry’s Golf Game

He takes more shotsin his short game (62.3%).

He takes more shotsin his short game (62.3%).


Let’s continue analyzing his game by breaking it down further.Where is the biggest opportunity in his short game?

Let’s continue analyzing his game by breaking it down further.Where is the biggest opportunity in his short game?

C h ipsPu tts

25752033.166.9

100.0 66.9

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

100

80

40

20

0

Shot Type

CountPercentCum %

Co

un t

Larry’s Short Game

He takes more shotsin his putting game (66.9%).

He takes more shotsin his putting game (66.9%).


Material Larry

Environment Methods Machine

Putting Score

Cause & Effect Diagram - Larry’s Putting Game

Measurement

What are the causes of variation in Larry’s Putting Game? What are the causes of variation in Larry’s Putting Game?


Project Phases:

Measure

Analyze

Improve

Control

6

Presenters:

P. Pfaff

H. Myrie

K. Barker

6-Sigma Example - Analyze Phase

Material Larry


Putting Score


Measurement

What are the causes of variation in Larry’s Putting Game? What are the causes of variation in Larry’s Putting Game?

> Golf Course> Green Condition

> Time of Day> Weather

> Playing Partners> Betting of Hole

>Number of Drinks > Eye Glasses Prescription Updated

> Properly Rested

> Grass Type>Cheat at Counting> Can’t Remember

> Pencil has an eraser

> Putting Style- Stance

-Grip- Swing

> Reading the Green

>Putter Type> Ball Type

> Shoes> Glove


Is putting really a significant source of variation in the overall golf score? Is putting really a significant source of variation in the overall golf score?

50454035

130

120

110

100

90

Putts

Sco

re

Y = 33.1284 + 1.67546X

R-Squared = 0.906

The R-Squared value saysthat 90.6% of the variationin the Overall Score isdirectly related to theputting game.

The R-Squared value saysthat 90.6% of the variationin the Overall Score isdirectly related to theputting game.

Yes!!!

ScatterPlot/Fitted Line Regression


Let’s figure out what is causing the variation in his putting game. . . Let’s figure out what is causing the variation in his putting game. . .

Run Chart of Larry's Scores

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1/1

5

2/5

2/1

0

2/2

4

2/2

6

3/3

3/2

3

4/1

3

4/2

0

4/2

7

5/1

3

5/1

9

5/2

7

6/2

6/7

Date

Sco

re

What did Larry dodifferently duringthis time frame?

What did Larry dodifferently duringthis time frame?


6543210

54

44

34

Drinks

Pu t

ts

Y =

If he gave up drinking, does the number of drinks directly affect his putting?If he gave up drinking, does the number of drinks directly affect his putting?

R-Squared = 0.872

The R-Squared value saysthat 87.2% of the variationin Putting is directly related to the number of drinks he had.

The R-Squared value saysthat 87.2% of the variationin Putting is directly related to the number of drinks he had.

Yes!!!


36.25 + 2X


Conclusions

• Larry should putt, or drink, but not both!

• If Larry gives up drinking while golfing he will have addressed 87.2% of the variation in his putting game.

• By bringing his putting game under control he will achieve a 5-sigma game.

• To achieve a 6-sigma game we will have to do further investigations.


Project Phases:

Measure

Analyze

Improve

Control

6

Presenters:

P. Pfaff

H. Myrie

K. Barker

6-Sigma Example - Improve Phase

Material Larry


Putting Score


Measurement

Last time we determined drinks was a significant X. What other sources also drive the Putting Score?

Last time we determined drinks was a significant X. What other sources also drive the Putting Score?

> Golf Course> Green Condition

> Time of Day> Weather

> Playing Partners> Betting of Hole

>NUMBER OF DRINKS > Eye Glasses Prescription Updated

> Properly Rested

> Grass Type

> Putting Style- Stance

-Grip- Swing

> Reading the Green

>Putter Type> Ball Type

> Shoes> Glove

>Cheat at Counting> Can’t Remember

> Pencil has an eraser


In order to improve his game above the 5-sigma level he has to improve his skills.

In order to improve his game above the 5-sigma level he has to improve his skills.

• What skills does he need to improve? After talking with Larry and the Golf Pro we

have concluded that there are three areasthat would most likely improve his putting game. They are the putter type, stance and grip during putting.

The Golf Pro wants to sell him the latest high tech/high $$ putter (Big Bubba).

• What does Larry have to do?


Larry was not sure, so he consulted with his trustworthy Black Belt, who uses data to help make decisions.

They then set up a Designed Set of Experiments with the following settings:

Factor Low (-1) High (+1)Putter Type Old Reliable Big Bubba

Stance Closed OpenGrip Open Interlocked


This is the Experiment Matrix that they decided to run!This is the Experiment Matrix that they decided to run!

Putter Type Stance GripOld Reliable Closed OpenBig Bubba Closed Open

Old Reliable Open OpenBig Bubba Open Open

Old Reliable Closed InterlockedBig Bubba Closed Interlocked

Old Reliable Open InterlockedBig Bubba Open Interlocked

This is a 23 DOE, which has eight conditions to test.This is a 23 DOE, which has eight conditions to test.


This is the Experiment Matrix after we randomizedthe order that they will run!

This is the Experiment Matrix after we randomizedthe order that they will run!

Randomization is done to detectthe effect of other non-controlled variables.

Randomization is done to detectthe effect of other non-controlled variables.

Run # Putter Type Stance Grip1 Old Reliable Closed Open2 Old Reliable Open Open3 Big Bubba Closed Open4 Old Reliable Closed Interlocked5 Big Bubba Open Interlocked6 Big Bubba Open Open7 Old Reliable Open Interlocked8 Big Bubba Closed Interlocked


We ran the experiments and these are the results.We ran the experiments and these are the results.

1

1

-1

-1

1 1

-1

-1 1 1

-1-1

1

1

Main Effects Plot for Putting Score

Stance

Clo

se

Ope

n

PutterType

Old

Re

liab

le

Big

Bu

bba

Grip

Ope

n

Inte

rlo

ck

40

38

36

34

32

Stance

Grip

Ope

n

Inte

rlo

ck

PutterTypeO

ld R

elia

ble

Big

Bu

bba

Interaction Plots for Putting Score

Close Stance

Open Stance

Put

ting

Sco

re 40

38

36

34

32

40

38

36

34

32

Open Stance

Close Stance

Old Reliable

Big Bubba

The Closed Stance with the Interlocked Grip gives Larry

the Lowest Score!(Verified statistically.)

The Closed Stance with the Interlocked Grip gives Larry

the Lowest Score!(Verified statistically.)

Stance and Grip are significant factors.

(Verified statistically.)

Stance and Grip are significant factors.

(Verified statistically.)

p = .026 p = .037p = .873

p = .003


DOE Conclusions

• The high $$ putter made no difference!!

• The interaction between Closed Stance and Interlocked Grip gives Larry the lowest score!

• Just using the interlocked grip or closed stance by themselves will not achieve the lowest putting score.


So, What is Larry’s Improvement Plan?

• Give up drinking . . . on the golf course!!

• Continue to use “Old Reliable” putter, since the DOE showed that the “Big Bubba” made no difference.

• Always use an interlocking grip and a closed stance when he putts.

• Implement these improvements and collect some data! Play some golf!


Larry's Run Chart of Scores

60

70

80

90

100

110

12015-J

an

10-F

eb

26-F

eb

23-M

ar

20-A

pr

13-M

ay

27-M

ay

7-J

un

14-J

un

25-J

un

4-J

ul

29-J

ul

6-A

ug

14-A

ug

6-S

ep

Measure Improve

Yes! How much?

100.097.595.092.590.087.585.082.580.0


ImpScore

s

Mean-3s

Mean+3s

Mean

n

k

LSL

USL

Targ

Cpm

Ppk

PPL

PPU

Pp

0

9

0

11

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Obs

PPM<LSL Exp

Obs

PPM>USL Exp

Obs

%<LSL Exp

Obs

%>USL Exp

2.3442

83.0341

97.0992

90.0667

15.000

0.007

80.000

100.000

*

*

1.41

1.43

1.41

1.42

Process Capability Analysis

From Measure:Zlt = -0.15 DPMO = 820,000Zst = 5.64

From Improve:Zlt = 4.23 DPMO = 12



Has Larry improved?USL

LSL


Project Phases:

Measure

Analyze

Improve

Control

6

Presenters:

P. Pfaff

H. Myrie

K. Barker

6-Sigma Example - Improve Review

• Give up drinking . . . on the golf course!!

• Use “Old Reliable” putter!!

• Always use an interlocking grip and a closed stance when he putts!!

Remember Larry’s Improve “Plan” . . .

. . . and the ResultsFrom Measure:Zlt = -0.15 DPMO = 820,000Zst = 5.64




6-Sigma Example - Control Phase

Larry Needs a Control Plan

• What’s a good plan to insure that Larry sustains the improvements he has made?

• Are there risks that could cause Larry to lose his improvement?

• If so, how should Larry address those risks associated with changing his golf game?

• Can Larry come up with a realistic drinking objective and maintain his improvement?


So, What is Larry’s Control Plan?• Alternate drinking plan

• Leave wallet in car - only take enough $ for 1 beer

• Lock and key on partners’ beer coolers

• Unlimited supply of “Near Beer” in Red Dog bottles (shhh - Don’t tell Larry)

• Put a Label on “Old Reliable” putter where he always sees it when putting

• “Interlock grip, close stance”

Mistake - proofing


• SPC Control Chart

• Use the mean +/- 3 sigma limits as calculated from the Improve Phase data

• Continue Data Collection on Vital X’s

• Larry to track drinks per round

More of Larry’s Control Plan

Okay, he’s got a plan.Is there any risk associated with it?


Identify the risk elements (schedule, cost, technical)

Assign ratings (high (3), med(2), low(1))

Prioritize elements (probability & impact)

Identify Risk Abatement plans

Incorporate into Larry’s Control plan

Risk Assessment

Giving up drinking is a risk!

Need an Abatement Plan

Giving up drinking is a risk!

Need an Abatement Plan

RISK PROB. IMPACT TOTALTeam doesn’t invite non-drinkers 2 3 6“old Reliable” craps out 1 3 3Cannot use interlocking grip 1 3 3Something else goes wrong in game 2 2 4Quit golf - no fun without drinking 3 3 9Might "find" more drinks on the course 2 2 4


6543210

54

44

34

Drinks

Pu t

ts

Y =

R-Squared = 0.872

The Linear Regression predicts that 1 - 2 drinks will add only a

few putts.

The Linear Regression predicts that 1 - 2 drinks will add only a

few putts.


36.25 + 2X

RealisticTolerance

ExpectedOutcome

If he drinks moderately, can he maintain an improvement?

If he drinks moderately, can he maintain an improvement?

Abatement Planning


Monitoring the SPC Chart

UCL = 96.91

LCL = 83.23

What happened here?Let’s look at the data!

99! Out of Control!


Does Larry’s Control Plan Work?

Score Drinks89 191 188 190 299 491 288 089 190 293 291 1

• How did Larry get four drinks?

• Was this risk in the Risk Assessment / Abatement Plan?

• Yes!

• Is there an Abatement Plan?

• Yes!

• Then implement the Abatement Plan immediately.

“Stuff” happens - so we doRisk Assessment / Abatement!!


Did the Abatement Work?

UCL

LCL

100.097.595.092.590.087.585.082.580.0


Post

s

Mean-3s

Mean+3s

Mean

n

k

LSL

USL

Targ

Cpm

Ppk

PPL

PPU

Pp

0

0

0

0

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Obs

PPM<LSL Exp

Obs

PPM>USL Exp

Obs

%<LSL Exp

Obs

%>USL Exp

1.7215

85.0173

95.3464

90.1818

11.000

0.018

80.000

100.000

*

*

1.90

1.97

1.90

1.94

Process Capability Analysis

Control Chart says Yes!

Capability Analysis says Yes!

He has reached Zlt = 5.7 Sigma!(Zst at Measure was 5.64)

Success!

Glossary of Terms ZLT - Overall (Long Term) process capability, ZLT process

ZST - Best (Short Term) process capability, ZST process

Zshift = ZLT - ZST

DPU - Defects Per Unit DPO - Defects Per Opportunity DPMO - Defects Per Million Opportunities PPM - Parts Per Million FTY - First Time Yield Cp - Capability Index (best process capability)

Cpk - Actual Capability Index (measure of process shift) CPU - Capability index for upper spec. limit CPL - Capability index for lower spec. limit CTQ - “Critical To Quality” characteristic Gage R&R - Gage Repeatability & Reproducibility QFD - Quality Functional Deployment Sigma - is a measure of variability (standard deviation) NPI/EDC - New Process Introduction/Engine Development Cycle

6 sigma on golf course

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