60 - ceri · number of rigs could be sent to europe. in addition, north america is expected to...

Relevant • Independent • Objective

The success of the US shale gas industry has increased domestic production, lowered imports of pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas, and reduced prices to less than $5 per MMBtu. According to the EIA, shale gas will account for 47 percent of total US natural gas production by 2035.3 Not surprisingly, the US shale gas boom has resulted in a significant increase in rigs and equipment available to drill the required horizontal wells. Since the fourth quarter of 2009, the number of horizontal rigs in the US fleet has increased by 116 percent.4 In addition, pressure pumping capacity continues to rise in North America, and now accounts for 80 percent of the global capacity.5 The exploration and development of shale gas resources could have a tremendous impact on the economies of resource rich European nations over the long-term. Large capital investments would be required to support the exploration, development, production, processing, and transportation of new shale gas supplies. Because of the shift towards liquids drilling in North America (using rigs capable of drilling horizontal wells), in addition to an ongoing need – especially in the US – for companies to drill to hold land rights, it is unlikely that a significant number of rigs could be sent to Europe. In addition, North America is expected to remain deficient in pressure pumping capacity as demand continues to outstrip supply in 2011.6 This is one area where international drilling and completion companies can help Europe develop its domestic capabilities. The International Energy Agency estimates that between 2011 and 2035, cumulative investment in natural gas supply infrastructure in OECD Europe will total over $1 trillion.7 Already, Schlumberger and Halliburton have set their sights on Europe, establishing a pressure pumping fleet in Poland. Spending by the industry is expected to result in direct, indirect, and induced economic benefits, which include job creation, growth in gross domestic product, and increased government tax revenues. Along with the economic benefits that could accrue to European nations, are the obvious energy security

October 2011

CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas

European Shale Gas Development In April 2011, the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) released an initial assessment of shale gas resources outside of the US.1 The 14 European nations assessed in the EIA report are estimated to contain 639 TCF of technically recoverable shale gas, or approximately 10 percent of the total resource base in the areas reviewed. The economically recoverable portion has yet to be determined, as exploration is in the early phase and data availability is limited. Approximately 83 percent of Europe’s shale gas resources are located in Poland, France, Norway, Ukraine, and Sweden.

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CERI Commodity Report – Natural Gas Editor-in-Chief: Mellisa Mei ([email protected]) Contents Featured Article ............................................................. 1 Natural Gas Prices .......................................................... 5 Weather......................................................................... 7 Consumption and Production ........................................ 9 Transportation ............................................................... 11 Storage .......................................................................... 13 Liquefied Natural Gas .................................................... 16 Drilling Activity .............................................................. 17

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

benefits. Given the region’s understandable concerns over the risk of future disruptions, achieving security of supply is one of the key goals of European energy policy. However, several European nations rely heavily on natural gas imports, particularly pipeline natural gas imports from Russia.

Source: US EIA8 On November 8, the long awaited Nord Stream Pipeline, linking Russia and Germany, officially commenced operations. When the pipeline becomes fully operational in 2013, 5.3 BCFPD will be delivered to Western Europe.9 The development of shale gas resources within the European Union (EU) would provide the region with a stable, relatively low cost source of natural gas, and enhance energy security through supply diversification. Within the EU, energy development and security go hand-in-hand with environmental policy, as the EU pushes towards “greener” sources of energy and must face the fact that wind and solar cannot meet its needs, without support from natural gas. Increasing shale gas production across Europe would place downward pressure on regional natural gas prices, and encourage greater use of this clean burning fuel. Shifting electricity production from coal to a combination of renewable sources and natural gas has been recognized as the fastest way to reduce GHG emissions in Europe.10 The GHG emissions of electricity generated from shale gas are 56 percent that of coal, and only 11 percent greater than the GHG emissions of electricity generated from conventional natural gas.11 For countries such as Poland that are heavily dependent on coal for electricity production

(over 90 percent), shale gas is an effective solution to meeting GHG emission reduction targets. Commercial development of Europe’s shale gas is not expected before the end of the decade, and before the benefits of shale gas production can be realized, technical and environmental challenges must be addressed. Much of Europe is distinctly different from North America when it comes to the level of maturity of its onshore natural gas industry. Since Poland could be viewed as a litmus test for the European shale industry it is important to consider a few items before passing judgement on the success, or failure, of the European shale gas story. Aside from the previously mentioned need for additional drilling and completion equipment in Europe, Doug Bentley, Schlumberger’s unconventional resource manager for Continental Europe, summed up one of the key differences between North America and Europe in a June 2011 interview.12 Mr. Bentley compared Poland to Texas when discussing the Barnett, which is approximately 13,000 square kilometers and already had 11,000 natural gas wells before shale production took off. Because of the excellent data from well logs that existed, the Barnett was less about exploration and more about exploitation and experimentation. The area being considered in Poland is 100,000 square kilometers with about 5 wells, and stratigraphic well data for Poland dates back to the 1950s with little sensitivity for today’s analysis. Put another way, the “Polish experiment” is about 8 times the size of the Barnett experiment, with a mere 5 wells. When considered in this context, it might not be much of a surprise that the early well results from Poland are not as strong as some had anticipated. However, a recent report from Bernstein Research concluded that Europe’s shale gas experience would not be as successful as the US experience, comparing the initial results from two wells in Poland to wells drilled in the US that had average 30-day flow rates ranging from 2-4 MMCFPD.13 The wells in question were the Lebien (3Legs Resources) and Lebrok (BNK Petroleum) wells in Poland’s Baltic Basin. The Lebien well, which flowed at an initial rate of 2.2 MMCFPD, was not intended to be a commercial well, but rather to achieve a sustained gas production rate and gather data for drilling and stimulation designs for future wells.14 The US is almost 100 years ahead of Poland with


respect to the development of its industry, and Poland is already moving at a fast pace in order to catch-up. Although the enthusiasm for shale gas may have been tempered for some, it is far too soon to pass judgement on Poland’s, or Europe’s, shale gas industry.

Source: US EIA15 Addressing the environmental concerns over shale gas drilling may be more critical to the success of the industry than the wells themselves. While hydraulic fracturing has been practiced for over 60 years in North America, the safety record of the practice is now being challenged. The practice, used in conjunction with horizontal drilling, involves pumping a mixture of water, sand, and various chemical additives, under high pressure, into the wellbore, fracturing the shale rock to allow natural gas to flow to the surface. Although recent research results from the University of Texas have disproved the perceived link between hydraulic fracturing and groundwater contamination,16 environmental groups that vehemently oppose shale gas drilling continue to stage protests and pressure policy makers to ban the process across Europe.

Source: Oil and Gas Watch Europe17 EU-wide environmental regulations apply to various aspects of shale gas production (e.g., Water Framework Directive, Groundwater Directive, Drinking Water Directive), but regulations specific to the shale gas industry do not yet exist, and may not be realistic given the divergence of energy policies among individual member states. Poland’s energy strategy encourages the exploration and development of shale gas resources to reduce the country’s import dependence. Conversely, France became the first nation to pass legislation prohibiting the use of hydraulic fracturing for shale oil and gas production earlier this year.18 The European Commission is currently preparing a legal assessment aimed at reviewing regulations on shale gas.19 Shale gas development has the potential to transform Europe’s energy landscape, providing economic, energy security, and environmental benefits. However, the shale gas industry outside of North America remains in its infancy, and environmental, as well as technical, challenges could hinder exploration and development efforts if they are not managed wisely.


Endnotes 1“World Shale Gas Resources: An Initial Assessment of 14 Regions Outside the United States”, United States Energy Information Administration, April 2011. 2Ibid. 3“Annual Energy Outlook 2011”, United States Energy Information Administration, April 2011. 4McCollum, Mark, “Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Energy Conference”, Halliburton, November 15, 2011, phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NDIzNzA4MnxDaGlsZElEPTQ0N zYyNnxUeXBlPTI=&t=1, Accessed on November 15, 2011. 5Dezember, Ryan, “Halliburton: ‘Phenomenal’ Opportunities for Global Pressure Pumping Growth”, Rigzone, September 6, 2011, http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=110751, Accessed on November 8, 2011. 6“North American Pressure Pumping Trends, International I m p l i c a t i o n s ” , N a t u r a l G a s Am e r i c a s , h t t p : / /naturalgasforamerica.com/north-american-pressure-pumping-trends-international-implications.htm, Accessed on November 8, 2011. 7World Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency, November 2011. 8Russia, Country Analysis Brief, United States Energy Information Administration, November 2010, http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=RS, Accessed on November 8, 2011. 9Wiesmann, Gerrit, “Russia-EU gas pipeline delivers first supplies”, Financial Times, November 8, 2011, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/51ea636e-0a14-11e1-8d46-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1dk4Ltlop, Accessed on November 8, 2011. 10Power Perspectives 2030: On the Road to a Decarbonised Power Sector” 11Hultman, Nathan, Dylan Rebois, Michael Scholten, and Christopher Ramig, “The greenhouse gas impact of unconventional gas for electricity generation”, Environmental Research Letters, October 25, 2011, http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/4/044008/pdf/1748-9326_6_4_044008.pdf

12Dunnahoe, Tayvis, “Poland poised for productive shale develop-ment”, E&P, June 2011. 13Farey, Ben, “No Shale Boom in Europe as First Wells Struggle, Bern-stein Says”, Bloomberg, November 10, 2011, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-10/poland-shale-tests-show-europe-unlikely-to-match-u-s-boom-bernstein-says.html, Accessed on November 10, 2011. 14“Operational update on Lebien LE-2H and Warblino LE-1H horizontal wells”, 3Legs Resources Plc., September 26, 2011, http://www.3legsresources.com/media_26-09-2011-operationalupdate.php, Accessed on November 10, 2011. 15“World Shale Gas Resources: An Initial Assessment of 14 Regions Outside the United States”, United States Energy Information Admini-stration, April 2011. 16Rasp, Gary, “Early Results from Hydraulic Fracturing Study Show No Direct Link to Groundwater Contamination”, University of Texas Press Release, November 10, 2011, http://www.energy.utexas.edu/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=145:early-results-from-hydraulic-fracturing-study-show-no-direct-link-to-groundwater-contamination&catid=34:press-releases&Itemid=54, Accessed on November 10, 2011. 17“No to shale drilling, with a French accent”, Oil and Gas Watch Europe, http://oilandgaswatcheurope.com/2011/02/07/shale-gas-protest-paris/, Accessed on November 9, 2011. 18Troy, Phaedra Friend, “France ban hydraulic fracturing for shale oil and gas development”, PennEnergy, July 6, 2011, http://www.pennenergy.com/index/petroleum/display/5399172472/articles/pennenergy/petroleum/exploration/2011/07/france -bans_hydraullic.html, Accessed on November 9, 2011. 19Wyciszkiewicz, Ernest, Agata Gostynska, Dorota liszczyk, Lidia Puka, Bartosz Wisniewski, Bartlomiej Znojek, “Path to Prosperity or Road to Ruin? Shale Gas Under Political Scrutiny”, The Polish Institute of Inter-national Affairs, October, 2011.

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=110751

http://naturalgasforamerica.com/north-american-pressure-pumping-trends-international-implications.htm



http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=RS

http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=RS

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/51ea636e-0a14-11e1-8d46-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1dk4Ltlop

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/51ea636e-0a14-11e1-8d46-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1dk4Ltlop

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-10/poland-shale-tests-show-europe-unlikely-to-match-u-s-boom-bernstein-says.html



http://www.3legsresources.com/media_26-09-2011-operationalupdate.php

http://www.3legsresources.com/media_26-09-2011-operationalupdate.php

http://www.energy.utexas.edu/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=145:early-results-from-hydraulic-fracturing-study-show-no-direct-link-to-groundwater-contamination&catid=34:press-releases&Itemid=54




http://oilandgaswatcheurope.com/2011/02/07/shale-gas-protest-paris/

http://oilandgaswatcheurope.com/2011/02/07/shale-gas-protest-paris/

http://www.pennenergy.com/index/petroleum/display/5399172472/articles/pennenergy/petroleum/exploration/2011/07/france-bans_hydraullic.html





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60 - ceri · number of rigs could be sent to europe. in addition, north america is expected to...

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