8-1-s290-ep unit 8 keeping current with fire weather unit 8

8-1-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather

Unit 8


Unit 8 Objectives1. Identify the types, purpose, and elements of

Predictive Service products.

2. Identify the types, purpose, and elements of National Weather Service products.

3. Identify ways in which firefighters can receive fire weather products and weather observations.

4. Describe the importance of Incident Meteorologists (IMET) and Fire Behavior Analysts (FBAN) on wildland fires.


Meeting Fire Management Needs

• Fire weather/fire potential products help:– Plan daily fire management activities– Plan effective control actions– Determine short and long term fire

potential

• Products developed by:– Land Management Predictive Services– National Weather Service (NWS)


Predictive Services• Combined group of fire Intelligence

Coordinators, FBANs, and Fire Meteorologists.

• Each GACC has a predictive services group to meet the needs of the geographic area.

• GACC level information is integrated into national level outlooks.


Predictive Services

Reno

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• Monitors, analyzes and predicts fire weather, fire danger and interagency fire management resource impact.

• Produce a range of combined fire weather/fire danger outlooks for predetermined predictive service zones.

• Zones based on RAWS climatology and topography.

Predictive ServicesProducts and Services


Products are targeted to aid resource related decision-making at the GACC and national levels

Northwest Area Predictive Services Zones

Predictive ServicesProducts and Services


• 7-Day Significant Fire Potential

• Monthly Fire Weather/Fire Danger Outlook

• National Fire Weather/Fire Danger Outlook

• Seasonal Assessment Outlook

• Other products

Predictive ServicesSuite of Products


7 Day Significant Fire Potential

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• Provides fire potential for a geographical area

• The product includes:– Weather/fuels discussion– Current and projected fuel dryness – Fire potential discussion map – Significant weather– High risk days– Resource concerns

Predictive Services7 Day Significant Fire Potential


Monthly Fire Weather Fire Danger Outlook

Fire danger report and map

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Monthly Fire Weather Fire Danger Outlook

• Monthly:– Generated by the GACCs

• Includes:– A brief discussion of general weather/fire

danger for the GA– A brief discussion on current GA fuel

anomalies/fuel moisture– Predicted temperature and precipitation– Fire potential map

Predictive Services


National Wildland Fire OutlookPredictive Services

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National Wildland Fire Outlook

• National Monthly Outlook: – Issued monthly and year-round– Compiled from each GA monthly fire

weather/fire danger outlook

• Product includes:– GACC narratives– Current and projected fire statistics– Fire potential map

Predictive Services


Seasonal Assessments

• Issued on both Geographic and National levels prior to fire season

• Product typically includes:– Executive summary– Introduction and objectives– Current situation– Comparison of current and historical

conditions– Climate, weather, fire forecasts and

outlooks

Predictive Services


– Predicted fire occurrence and resource needs

– Future scenarios and probabilities

– Considerations, concerns andmanagement implications

– Summary, discussions and recommendations

Predictive ServicesSeasonal Assessments

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• Weather briefings

• Daily summaries of NWS fire weather forecasts

• Long term precipitation monitoring

• Smoke management summaries

• Spot forecasts for planned burns and smoke management (California)

• IMET or technical specialist support by qualified GACC meteorologists

Predictive ServicesOther Products and Services


National Weather Service• Consists of over 120 offices • Has a variety of operational programs,

including fire weather


Products and Services

The Fire Weather Program:• A core suite of standardized fire weather

products• Consultation services for prevention,

suppression, and other land management activities

• Optional products at regional and local office discretion

• Products issued by core forecast staff at local office for fire weather service area (fire weather zones)

National Weather Service


Products and Services

The Fire Weather Program



Fire Weather Planning ForecastNational Weather Service

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Fire Weather Forecasts and Statements provided by the


• Fire Weather Planning Forecasts• NFDRS Forecasts • Smoke Management Forecasts• Spot Weather Forecasts• Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag

Warnings• Wildland Fire Danger Statements


Fire Weather Planning Forecast• A narrative or tabular zone-type

product• Purpose:

– Pre-suppression for fire management– Initial attack readiness– Daily staffing levels– Prevention program

• Account for local topography• Is not site specific



Fire Weather Planning Forecast

FWF Elements Include:• Fire weather headlines and discussion• Sky and weather• Temperature• Relative humidity• Surface (20-foot) wind • 3 to 7 day outlook



Elements may include:• Haines Index• Ridge Top Winds• Mixing Heights• Transport Winds• Dispersion• Clearing Index• Chance of wetting rain (CWR)

Fire Weather Planning ForecastNational Weather Service


Lightning Activity LevelLAL 1 – no thunderstorms

LAL 2 – isolated thunderstorms, light rainfall

LAL 3 – widely scattered thunderstorms, light to moderate rainfall

LAL 4 – scattered thunderstorms, moderate rainfall

LAL 5 – numerous thunderstorms, moderate to heavy rainfall

LAL 6 – same as LAL 3, but dry.


Spot Weather Forecast• Spot Forecasts:

– site specific – issued to fit time,

topography and weather of a specific location

• Used for:– wildfires– prescribed burns– spray projects– hazmat situations – other special projects



NWS Spot– national standard for spot requests– request/reply web program– should be used when possible

Spot Weather ForecastNational Weather Service


Spot Weather Forecast Request Form


• Request Form includes:–Project name–Requesting agency–Location –Fuel type–Observations–Forecast elements–Remarks–Submit

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Spot Weather Forecast Returned

Completed Spot Forecast

– Valid time period– Topo maps of location– Location information– Elevation, aspect– Fuel type– Observations


– Requested parameters

– Forecast• Discussion• Forecast

elements• Feedback


Steps in Obtaining Good Spot Forecasts

• Take and record representative weather observations on the fire

• Complete the NWS Spot request form

• Transmit the NWS Spot request form

• Provide forecaster feedback on accuracy of forecast



Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch


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The National Weather Service will issue awatch or warning

to alert fire and land managers of CRITICAL or RAPIDLY CHANGING

weather conditions that will potentially increase fire danger in a significant way.



• Fire Weather Watch:– High potential for red flag event in 24-72 hours– May be issued in first 12 hour time period for dry

thunderstorms

• Red Flag Warning:– Issued to warn of an impending, or occurring red

flag event– Issued when confidence is high that red flag

conditions will occur in 24 hours or less



Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch Criteria

• Criteria may be based on locally or regionally established thresholds

• General criteria may include high to extreme fire danger in combination with:– Dry lightning (Ignition is or will occur)– First lightning after an extremely dry period



Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch Criteria

– Unusually low relative humidity

– Very dry and unstable air (high Haines)

– Very strong and shifting winds that may or may not be associated with a cold front



Smoke Management Forecast

• Content may include:– Discussion– Transport winds– Mixing height– Stability– Dispersion

• Local Fire Management and NWS should establish content, format, and frequency of issuance



Retrieving Fire Weather InformationInternet and other Communication

• Main Sources Fire Weather Products:– Predictive Services web sites– National Predictive Services Homepage– Local NWS web sites– National Weather Service Homepage

• Alternative Sources– Phone or radio communications from

interagency dispatch center


Retrieving Fire Weather InformationReal-time Observation Monitor and

Analysis Network (ROMAN)

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Retrieving Fire Weather InformationReal-time Observation Monitor and

Analysis Network (ROMAN)

• ROMAN– Weather observation retrieval web

application

– Simple menu system

– Data displayed on regional or local scale


Incident MeteorologistOn-Site Weather Support

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Incident MeteorologistOn-Site Weather Support

• Include NWS, land management, or state meteorologists

• Issue incident specific forecasts• Give weather briefings• Collect weather information

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NWS Incident Meteorologist Technology

• Atmospheric Theodolite Meteorological Unit (ATMU)– Upper air observing – PIBAL and Theodolite

On-Site Weather Support


NWS Incident Meteorologist Technology

– High speed two-way satellite dish for data transmitting and receiving

– All Hazards Meteorological Response System (AMRS)

On-Site Weather Support


Fire Behavior Analyst

• Fire Behavior Analyst (FBAN)– Calculates predicted fire behavior– Produces fire behavior forecast


Fire Behavior Analyst and Incident Meteorologist

• IMET works for FBAN• IMET prepares detailed forecast• FBAN then prepares fire behavior forecast

FBAN IMET


Fire Behavior Forecast

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Fire Behavior Forecast

• Prepared by FBA• Meets needs of the fire overhead

organization• The Product:

– Interprets wildland fire calculations– Describes past and expected wildland fire

behavior – Identifies hazards due to wildland fire for

ground and aircraft activities


Unit 8 Objectives1. Identify the types, purpose, and elements of

Predictive Service products.

2. Identify the types, purpose, and elements of National Weather Service products.

3. Identify ways in which firefighters can receive fire weather products and weather observations.

4. Describe the importance of Incident Meteorologists (IMET) and Fire Behavior Analysts (FBAN) on wildland fires.

8-1-s290-ep unit 8 keeping current with fire weather unit 8

Documents

weather unit

s290ep unit

s290ep slide

weather products

weather monthly

weather meeting

weather observations

weather monitors