8c boyd lockhead martin - eprimydocs.epri.com/.../75n9fswnqfx/8c_boyd_lockhead_martin.pdf ·...
TRANSCRIPT
Harnessing Simulation for a Shorter Path to Mastery
Richard Boyd
Chief Architect, Virtual World Labs
Lockheed Martin
June 29, 2010
“Street Cred”
Immersion in high fidelity safe practiceenvironments with very convincing andintelligent characters using new, morenatural interfaces, enables humans toachieve a shorter path to mastery
Moore’s Law & Performance
Transistor Counts, Microprocessors, 1971‐2007
110100
1,00010,000100,000
1,000,00010,000,000100,000,000
1,000,000,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Jet engine performance (reference)
Source: Intel
Moore’s Law
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Electromechanical Relay Vacuum Tube Transistor Integrated Circuit
1900
Source: The Singularity Is Near, Ray Kurzweil
State of the Art, 1996
State of the art game environmentToday
CryTek CryEngine
Source: Mova Digital
More Convincing Humans
Four Phases of Capture
Immersive multiplayer 3D Afghanistan cultural training in a web browser
Boyd’s Laws
• Interactive 3D (games or virtual worlds) represent the most powerful medium for preparing for and comprehending an increasingly complex world
• People learn best when they learn by doing
• Safe practice yields a shorter path to mastery
• Games include every medium ever used for comm
• Can take you to inaccessible places
• Incredibly good at illustrating complex systems• The future the past the present
• The gaming medium is neither good nor bad, but without informed design it tends to be bad
Interactive 3D
Design Entertainment
Simulation Interface
Virtual World Sweet Spot
Perfect Practice Makes Perfect
By previously training for any conceivable scenario, the pilot is able to instinctively
respond optimally to any event at any time
The Evidence is In Serious games and virtual world training improve both effectiveness and efficiency
Roman’s LawA recent small unit training study showed that replacing 45% of live field‐based training
with game‐based training resulted in…
…an improvement in passing rates from 72% to 100%…In half the time of live training alone
…and required only 1/3 of the Field Tests.
Dr. Paul A. Roman Royal Military College of Canada
Class 3 (45% Serious Games)
Class 1 (No Serious Games)
Class 2 (3% Serious Games)
Class 3 (45% Serious Games)
Class 1 (No Serious Games)
Class 2 (3% Serious Games)
Dr. Paul A. Roman Royal Military College of Canada
Proven Across Industries
The ROI for using simulations to enhance learning has been proven across a wide range
of industries
These improvements in performance are independent of the obvious gains from reductions in travel and other classroom‐
related costs
Learning with Games
BP Convenience Retail Simulation
Improved passing rate from 40% to 100%
Training time reduced by a third
Lower training cost
CIO Magazine 2009 Innovation Award
BP has over 12,000 convenience retail stations in the U.S.
Lockheed Martin CLE
Dynamic Plant Model 3D simulation
In less than 6 months, we created this immersive and collaborative training simulation of a nuclear submarine machine room, connected to a 20‐yr old FORTRAN physics‐driven dynamic plant model for the US Navy. Supports 15 trainees and an instructor, each able to move their avatars through the 3D scene concurrently interacting with the 3D virtual equipment and each other.
This capability extends existing Hardware Control Room Simulators to include all engineering spaces
ROI Examples
Crew Resource Management
Reduction of 13.6 percent in number of sorties to achieve proficiency among simulator‐trained crews
Source: Nullmeyer et. al., I/ITSEC Conference Proceedings
ROI Examples
Anesthesiology Training
Reduction of 28 percent in number of days to achieve intubation proficiency among simulator‐trained anesthesiology residents
Source: Abrahamson et. al., Journal of Medical Education
ROI Examples
Surgical Training
Simulator‐trained residents six times less likely to make errors and nine times less likely to fail to make progress during gall bladder removal surgery
Source: Seymour et. al., Annals of Surgery
ROI Examples
Long‐Haul Trucking
Improvement of 83 percent in mean time between incidents after simulator training of truck drivers
Source: Deborah Lockridge, Heavy Duty TruckingCubbie_n_Vegas
ROI Examples
Snowplow Operations
Improvement of 6.2 percent in fuel efficiency among snowplow operators after simulator training
Source: Strayer et. al., Third Int’l Driving SymposiumSqueakyMarmot
Recent Developments
The Era of Virtual Film Making
Vince Pace and the 3D camera
Tomorrow: The Net “sees” us(aka the dawn of the “gestural native”)
Source: Microsoft’s “NATAL”
“The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn.”
‐Alvin Toffler
Digital NativesTwitch speed
Parallel processingGraphics first
Random accessConnected
ActivePlay
PayoffFantasy
Technology-as-friend
Digital ImmigrantsConventional speedLinear processing
Text firstStep-by-stepStand-alone
PassiveWork
PatienceReality
Technology-as-foe
Source: Marc Prensky
A New Generation of Users
Large systems evolve to reach a poised critical state where minor disturbances lead to avalanche events.
‐Per Bak, IBM
Butterflies flap their wings…
40
The exponential growth of computing, 1900-2100By about 2020 $1,000 circuitry = 20 billion calculations per second = human brain
Complex Healthcare Systems
Power Grids
Financial Systems
Network Centric Battlefield
Relational Database Visualization
SandTable3D Concept:3D scene allows GeoSpatial view of
Organizations, People, Vehicles, Equipment, and Communications
(DODAF, OV, SV)(populated via automatic translation
of xml, SOAP, or SQL feeds)
GeoSpatial Mouse Navigation ( fly down to detail with a single mouse gesture )
3D Embedded into C# app (new framework for UI)
FITE
US Army Live Fire Virtual TargetryNumerous immersive 3D insurgent scenarios projected on the walls of a live fire MOUT shoot house at the John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center & School at Fort Bragg, NC and expanded to numerous bases.
Trainees fire live rounds at the reactive, intelligent, virtual opposing forces.
Current R&D efforts include integrating accurate camera tracking through the use of IR LEDs (via Wii Remotes).
Microsoft ESP
