a 30-year climatology of hourly precipitation across the western carolinas scott krentz charles...
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![Page 1: A 30-Year Climatology of Hourly Precipitation Across the Western Carolinas Scott Krentz Charles Dalton](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5514be7f55034640138b5763/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
A 30-Year Climatology of A 30-Year Climatology of Hourly Precipitation Across Hourly Precipitation Across
the Western Carolinas the Western Carolinas
Scott KrentzScott Krentz
Charles DaltonCharles Dalton
![Page 2: A 30-Year Climatology of Hourly Precipitation Across the Western Carolinas Scott Krentz Charles Dalton](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5514be7f55034640138b5763/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
OverviewOverview
• Test Hypothesis Previous 10-year Study
• Methodology
• Results
• Unexpected Observation
• Concluding Remarks
![Page 3: A 30-Year Climatology of Hourly Precipitation Across the Western Carolinas Scott Krentz Charles Dalton](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5514be7f55034640138b5763/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Previous 10-year AnalysisPrevious 10-year Analysis
• Only used KGSP data
• Qualitatively compared to KAVL
• Verified forecaster’s observations
• Hypothesized temporal relationship between mountain and non-mountain precipitation
![Page 4: A 30-Year Climatology of Hourly Precipitation Across the Western Carolinas Scott Krentz Charles Dalton](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5514be7f55034640138b5763/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
MethodologyMethodology
• 30-year hourly datasets from NCDC
• 3 ASOS sites – 6 FP sites
• Data quality controlled (outliers < 0.1%)
• Hourly precipitation and frequencies
• Spreadsheets Charts
![Page 5: A 30-Year Climatology of Hourly Precipitation Across the Western Carolinas Scott Krentz Charles Dalton](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5514be7f55034640138b5763/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Cool Season (Oct-Mar) Hourly Frequencies(1971 - 2000)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
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450
500
550
600
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400
Hour Ending In (LST)
Ev
en
ts kavl
kclt
kgsp
ResultsResults
![Page 6: A 30-Year Climatology of Hourly Precipitation Across the Western Carolinas Scott Krentz Charles Dalton](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5514be7f55034640138b5763/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Warm Season (Apr-Sep) Hourly Frequencies(1971 - 2000)
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50
100
150
200
250
300
350
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450
500
550
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400
Hour Ending In (LST)
Ev
en
ts kavl
kclt
kgsp
ResultsResults
![Page 7: A 30-Year Climatology of Hourly Precipitation Across the Western Carolinas Scott Krentz Charles Dalton](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5514be7f55034640138b5763/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
ResultsResultsSummer (JJA) Hourly Event Frequency Comparison
(1971 - 2000)
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400
Hour (LST)
Ev
en
ts kavl
kclt
kgsp
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ResultsResultsJune Hourly Event Frequency Comparison
(1971 - 2000)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
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80
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100
110
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400
Hour (LST)
Ev
en
ts kavl
kclt
kgsp
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ResultsResultsJuly Hourly Event Frequency Comparison
(1971 - 2000)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
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100
110
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400
Hour (LST)
Eve
nts
kavl
kclt
kgsp
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ResultsResultsAugust Hourly Event Frequency Comparison
(1971 - 2000)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400
Hour (LST)
Ev
en
ts kavl
kclt
kgsp
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ResultsResultsSummer (JJA) Hourly Precipitation Totals Comparison
(1971 - 2000)
0
5
10
15
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25
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35
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45
50
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400
Hour (LST)
Inc
he
s kavl
kclt
kgsp
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June Hourly Precipitation Totals Comparison (1971 - 2000)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400
Hour (LST)
Inc
he
s kavl
kclt
kgsp
ResultsResults
![Page 13: A 30-Year Climatology of Hourly Precipitation Across the Western Carolinas Scott Krentz Charles Dalton](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5514be7f55034640138b5763/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
ResultsResultsJuly Hourly Precipitation Totals Comparison
(1971 - 2000)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400
Hour (LST)
Inc
he
s kavl
kclt
kgsp
![Page 14: A 30-Year Climatology of Hourly Precipitation Across the Western Carolinas Scott Krentz Charles Dalton](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5514be7f55034640138b5763/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
ResultsResultsAugust Hourly Precipitation Totals Comparison
(1971 - 2000)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400
Hour (LST)
Inc
he
s kavl
kclt
kgsp
![Page 15: A 30-Year Climatology of Hourly Precipitation Across the Western Carolinas Scott Krentz Charles Dalton](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5514be7f55034640138b5763/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Unexpected ObservationUnexpected ObservationJune 6-Hour Frequency of
Occurrence Comparison (1971 - 2000)
10.33
8.67
17.44 17.33
11.67
8.44
18.33
16.22
12.33 11.89
24.56
18.11
0
2
4
6
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28
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0100 - 0600 0700 - 1200 1300 - 1800 1900 - 2400
Hour (LST)
Perc
en
t KCLT
KGSP
KAVL
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Unexpected ObservationUnexpected ObservationJuly 6-Hour Frequency of
Occurrence Comparison (1971 - 2000)
9.89
5.59
19.1418.17
9.78
6.77
20.1119.57
10.00 9.78
25.81
15.16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
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20
22
24
26
28
30
0100 - 0600 0700 - 1200 1300 - 1800 1900 - 2400
Hour (LST)
Pe
rce
nt KCLT
KGSP
KAVL
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Unexpected ObservationUnexpected ObservationAugust 6-Hour Frequency of
Occurrence Comparison (1971 - 2000)
10.43
6.56
14.6215.16
9.78
7.53
17.74
14.62
10.229.57
24.84
16.02
0
2
4
6
8
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28
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0100 - 0600 0700 - 1200 1300 - 1800 1900 - 2400
Hour (LST)
Pe
rce
nt KCLT
KGSP
KAVL
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JJA 6hr Frequency of Occurrence Comparison (1900-2400 LST)
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
June July August
6-H
R F
req
ue
nc
ies
KCLT KGSP KAVL
Unexpected ObservationUnexpected Observation
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Unexpected ObservationUnexpected Observation
![Page 20: A 30-Year Climatology of Hourly Precipitation Across the Western Carolinas Scott Krentz Charles Dalton](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062511/5514be7f55034640138b5763/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
• Definite Warm-Season Frequency Shift
• Climatological Basis for Forecasts and Seasonal Staffing
• Additional Study Removing Tropical Precipitation
• Potential for Study of July Mountain Precipitation Decrease
ConclusionsConclusions