a a. liakhov, hydrometeorological bureau of moscow and moscow region; [email protected]
DESCRIPTION
COMPARISON OF THE STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EXTREME TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR BIG RUSSIAN CITIES ACCORDING TO OBSERVED DATA AND MODEL SIMULATED RESULTS IN XIX-th - XXI-th CENTURIES. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
COMPARISON OF THE STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EXTREME TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR BIG RUSSIAN CITIES ACCORDING TO OBSERVED DATA AND MODEL SIMULATED RESULTS IN XIX-th - XXI-th CENTURIES.
A A. Liakhov, Hydrometeorological Bureau of Moscow and Moscow region; [email protected] V. V. Oganesyan, Long-range forecasting Department, Hydrometcenter of Russia, [email protected] K. G. Rubinstein, Long-range forecasting Department, Hydrometcenter of Russia, [email protected]
TIME DEPENDENCE OF THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ANNUAL EXTREMES
Moscow: 55.8N 37.6E, h=156m St-Petersburg: 60.0N 30.3E, h=6m
Tm
ax
1879 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 201024
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 201122
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
Tm
ax
Yekaterinburg: 56.8N 60.6E, h=283m
1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 200120
25
30
35
40
45
Tm
ax
Rostov: 47.3N 39.8E, h=75m
1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 200626
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
Tm
ax
Tomsk: 56.4N 85.0E, h=173
1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 201127
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
Tm
ax
Moscow - -0.01
St-Petersburg – 0.02
Yekaterinburg – 0.03
Rostov – 0.03
Tomsk – 0.00
TIME DEPENDENCE OF THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ANNUAL EXTREMES
Moscow: 55.8N 37.6E, h=156m
1879 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15St-Petersburg: 60.0N 30.3E, h=6m
1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15 Yekaterinburg: 56.8N 60.6E, h=283m
1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
Rostov: 47.3N 39.8E, h=75m
1876 1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
Tm
in
Tomsk: 56.4N 85.0E, h=173
1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
Tm
in
Moscow – 0.07
St-Petersburg – 0.00
Yekaterinburg – 0.05
Rostov – 0.04
Tomsk – 0.04
TIME DEPENDENCE OF THE ANNUAL MAXIMUM DAILY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
Moscow: 55.8N 37.6E, h=156m
mm
1879 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 201010.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
St-Petersburg: 60.0N 30.3E, h=6m
1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 20110
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
mm
Yekaterinburg: 56.8N 60.6E, h=283m
1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 20110
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
mm
Rostov: 47.3N 39.8E, h=75m
1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 20060
20
40
60
80
100
120
mm
Tomsk: 56.4N 85.0E, h=173
1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 20110
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
mm
Moscow – 0.07
St-Petersburg – 0.00
Yekaterinburg – 0.08
Rostov - -0.010
Tomsk – 0.00
TIME DEPENDENCE OF THE ANNUAL AMPLITUDES OF THE TEMPERATURE EXTREMES
Moscow: 55.8N 37.6E, h=156m
Am
pl(C
)
1879 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 200045
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
St-Petersburg: 60.0N 30.3E, h=6m
1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 201140
45
50
55
60
65
70
Am
pl(c
)
Yekaterinburg: 56.8N 60.6E, h=283m
1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 201145
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Am
pl(C
)
Rostov: 47.3N 39.8E, h=75m
1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 200640
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Am
pl(C
)
Tomsk: 56.4N 85.0E, h=173
1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 201155
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
Am
pl(C
)
Moscow - -0.09
St-Petersburg – 0.00
Yekaterinburg – 0.00
Rostov – 0.00
Tomsk - -0.07
EMPIRICAL AND MODEL SIMULATED DISTRIBUTIONS OF THE DAILY PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND VALUES OF THE TEMPERATURE FOR 1979-1998 PERIOD
SIMULATED PRECIPITATIONS EMPIRICAL PRECIPITATIONS
87%
7%
3%1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0 13 25 38 50 63 75 mm0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
No
of
ob
s
93%
5%2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
0 11 22 34 44 50 62 73 mm0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
No
of
obs
SIMULATED TEMPERATURE EMPIRICAL TEMPERATURE
0%0%
1%
3%
4%
7%
11%
15%
10%
9%
12%
15%
10%
2%
0%
-20 -10 -30 -3 10 20 300
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
No
of o
bs
0% 0%1%
2%
5%
8%
10%
11%12%
10%
11%
12%11%
7%
1%
-37 -28 -197 -11 -2 65 15 240
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
No
of o
bs
EMPIRICAL AND SIMULATED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE EXTREMES FOR 1979-1998 PERIOD
Moscow: 55.8N 37.6E, h=156m
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Tmax emp Tmax modr=-0.0356
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
Tm
ax(
mo
d)
St-Petersburg: 60.0N 30.3E, h=6m
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Tmax emp Tmax modr=-0.2458
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
Tm
ax
Yekaterinburg: 56.8N 60.6E, h=283m
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Tmax эмп. Tmax мод.r=0.2982
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
Tm
ax(
mo
d)
Rostov: 47.3N 39.8E, h=75m
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Tmax emp Tmax modr=-0.3427
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
Tm
ax
Tomsk: 56.4N 85.0E, h=173
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Tmax emp Tmax modr=-0.2950
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
Tm
ax
Emp Mod
Moscow 0.05 0.00
St-Petersburg 0.11 0.09
Yekaterinburg 0.10 0.09
Rostov -0.12 -0.09
Tomsk 0.03 0.07
EMPIRICAL AND SIMULATED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EXTREMES FOR 1979-1998 PERIOD
Moscow: 55.8N 37.6E, h=156m
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Tmin emp Tmin modr=-0.0475
-30
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
Tm
in(m
od
)
St-Petersburg: 60.0N 30.3E, h=6m
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Tmin emp Tmin modr=0.3935
-38
-36
-34
-32
-30
-28
-26
-24
-22
-20
-18
-16
Tm
in
Yekaterinburg: 56.8N 60.6E, h=283m
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Tmin эмп. Tmin мод.r=0.1788
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
Tm
in(m
od
)
Rostov: 47.3N 39.8E, h=75m
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Tmin emp Tmin modr=0.0206
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
Tm
in
Tomsk: 56.4N 85.0E, h=173
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Tmin emp Tmin modr=0.3184
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
Tm
in
Emp Mod
Moscow 0.02 -0.10
St-Petersburg 0.25 0.03
Yekaterinburg 0.20 0.15
Rostov -0.10 -0.05
Tomsk 0.05 0.01
EMPIRICAL AND SIMULATED DAILY PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXTREMES FOR 1979-1998 PERIOD
Moscow: 55.8N 37.6E, h=156m
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Osad emp Osad modr=-0.3552
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
mm
St-Petersburg: 60.0N 30.3E, h=6m
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Osad emp Osad modr=-0.1243
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
mm
Yekaterinburg: 56.8N 60.6E, h=283m
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Осадки эмп. Осадки мод.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10
110
mm
Rostov: 47.3N 39.8E, h=75m
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Pemp Pmodr=-0.0629
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
mm
Tomsk: 56.4N 85.0E, h=173
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Pemp Pmodr=0.0567
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
mm
Emp Mod
Moscow -0.65 0.20
St-Petersburg 0.75 -0.52
Yekaterinburg 0.61 0.60
Rostov 0.44 0.00
Tomsk 0.25 -0.12
ANGLE COEFFICIENTS FOR DISCOVERED TRENDS FOR EMPIRICAL AND SIMULATED DATA OF TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
ANNUAL EXTREMES
City Element Emp initial row Emp 1979-1998 Sim 1979-1998
Moscow
Tmin 0.07 0.02 -0.10
Tmax -0.01 0.05 0.00
Precipitation 0.07 -0.65 0.20
St-Petersburg
Tmin 0.00 0.25 0.03
Tmax 0.02 0.11 0.09
Precipitation 0.00 0.75 -0.52
Yekaterinburg
Tmin 0.05 0.20 0.15
Tmax 0.03 0.10 0.09
Precipitation 0.08 0.61 0.60
Rostov
Tmin 0.04 -0.10 -0.05
Tmax 0.03 -0.12 -0.09
Precipitation -0.10 0.44 0.00
Tomsk
Tmin 0.04 0.05 0.01
Tmax 0.00 0.03 0.07
Precipitation 0.00 0.25 -0.12
Summary and conclusions
Climate changes are more significant for extremes of the minimum of the daily temperature (increase 0.04-0.07°C per year) than for extremes of the maximum of the daily temperature (increase 0.02-0.03°C per year). Variability (dispersion) of the values of the minimum of the daily temperature approximately twice as many as variability (dispersion) of the values of the maximum of the daily temperature for the all cities. Frequency of the extremes of the minimum and maximum of the daily temperature for the all seasons as whole for the XX-th-XXI centuries has decreased, but intensity of the extremes of daily precipitation totals has increased. The comparison of the statistical characteristics of the observed extreme values with model data allowed to determine the differences, first of all in characteristics of the model precipitation. The analyses of the received temporal trends showed, that in the whole, the climate of big cities of Russia for the period under consideration becomes more moderate and damp. This conclusion as a whole confirms the results of modeling.