Dr. B. LalljeeDirector

Consultancy & Contract Research CentreUniversity of Mauritius

Reduit, Mauritius

1

Weather, water and climate-related hazards

Hail&LightningHail&Lightning

AvalanchesAvalanchesFlash floodsFlash floods

TornadoesTornadoes

Wildland firesWildland fires& haze& haze

Hot & cold spellsHot & cold spells

Heavy precipitationsHeavy precipitations(rain or snow)(rain or snow)

DroughtsDroughts

Storm surgesStorm surges

Storm (winds)Storm (winds)

FloodsFloods

Mud & landslidesMud & landslides

Ice StormsIce Storms

Tropical cyclonesTropical cyclones

Dust stormsDust storms

Sea level riseSea level rise

2

Casualties during 2000-2009 were 78,000 per year, although there were over 200,000 casualties in 2010 alone.

Although number of people affected by natural events is increasing, the number of fatalities/deaths due to all natural disasters is decreasing.

Could be due to better early warning and preparedness programmes.

3

Exacerbating Factors in AfricaLack of adequate human and institutional capacities

for weather and climate modeling and forecasting.Weak/ non-existence of national Disaster Risk

Reduction (DRR) and Disaster Management Systems.

Lack of community based weather and climate Early Warning Systems (EWS).

Poor institutional coordination.Lack of policy and legal framework on Disaster

Management to facilitate the co-ordination and implementation of disaster preparedness activities.

Poverty and low level of disaster resilience in many communities (making vulnerability very high).

4

Climate Change A key driver of increasing hydrometeorological

disasters, especially global warming and sea level rise.

A challenge to humankind. Flooding is a global concern & increasing in its

intensity. It is forecasted that temperature increase of 3-4oC could result in displacement of nearly 330 million people only through flooding.

A 1 metre sea level rise would make at least 56 million people environmental refugees in the developing world.

5

In 2100 : half of the world’s population will sufffer from water stress

Subtropical zones: Less precipitation and increased desertification

Tropical zones: Increased health risks

High latitudes: permafrost decrease

Coastal zones: coastal erosion; storm surges; salt water intrusions

Cost of global warming in 2050: 300 billion USD per year

6

Natural Disasters in the World

7

Water-related disasters

8

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

MIL

LIM

ET

RE

YEAR

Trend in Annual Rainfall Over Mauritius

ANNUAL RAINFALL

9

Floods

Droughts

River flow

Present

Societal capacity

time

Extreme weather amplified by global warming will lead to frequent

disasters that will exceed societal capacity to mitigate and to adapt

10

Trend in Tropical Cyclone Intensity during the last 30 years

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1975-85 1985-95 1995-2005

Decades

No

. of

form

ati

on

s

Moderate

Severe

T.Cyclone

Linear (T.Cyclone)

11

Global Temperature

12

Sea level in Rodrigues (Mauritius)

Y early Mean Sea Level Difference from Normal at Rodrigues (1987-2005)

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Year

Dif

f fr

om

no

rm

al

( cm

)

13

Vulnerability Factors to Flooding≈ Poor/ inadequate and constricted drainage systems.

≈ Blockage of drains by solid wastes in urban areas.

≈ Uncontrolled logging, deforestation, soil erosion & silting of river beds.

≈ Removal of sand, gravel and boulders from river beds for supporting construction industry.

≈ Small river catchment area.

≈ Steep terrain conditions.

≈ Low lying coastal areas.

14

Key functional components of Early Warning Systems for hydrometeorological hazards- Risk Assessment, including hazard

assessment and vulnerability analysis- Hazard Detection- Hazard Prediction- Communications and Dissemination- Public Awareness- Coordination- Post-Disaster Support

15

Disaster management cycle

MitigationRecovery

ResponsePreparedness

Disaster

16

Framework for guidance and monitoring of disaster reduction

Risk identification

Knowledge management

Risk management applications

Preparedness and emergency management

Governance support

17

Risk identificationMonitoring

Early warning for weather-, water- or

climate- related disasters

Adaptation measures

Vulnerability assessment and Hazard

analysis

18

Need further improvements in the prediction of high-impact weather and in the full utilization of forecast information

Need user education and awareness :

to increase weather literacy and interest in meteorological topics

to ensure that warnings and forecasts provided by the authorities are understood by the intended users

to build up a high level of awareness of hazards and preparedness

to enable emergency management authorities to make well-informed decisions.

19

Risk management applicationsExamples include :

The Associated Programme on Flood Management -

promotes the concept of Integrated Flood

Management across sectors.

WMO’s Agricultural Meteorology Programme -

provides guidance on the development of support

systems for sustainable land management and agro-

climatic zoning.

20

Timely and accurate forecasts and warnings of natural hazards coupled with adequate local preparedness planning are fundamental requirements for disaster reduction.

Optimal response to natural disasters requires effective coordination and cooperation between responsible agencies, institutions, officials, the media, political leaders and other players at local, national and international levels.

21

Legislation and adequate normative framework are essential to implement risk management.

Political commitment is crucial to allocate the necessary resources.

Contributions of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services need to be integrated in national disaster management plans.

22

Natural disasters affect all countries, but burden falls disproportionately on developing countries.

Support to natural disaster reduction is both an issue of sustainable development and a matter of environmental justice requiring international solidarity.

23

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Strategies for African CountriesAfrica is highly vulnerable to extreme hydro-

meteorological events, and climate related disasters will continue to impact on African economies and societies.

Understanding climate risks and their causes is important in dealing with climate extreme events and disasters.

Downscaling climate information to local levels is critical in dealing with DRR.

Development of an effective EWS will improve DRR.Urgent need for the development and strengthening of

flood and drought EWS.24

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Strategies for African Countries contd

Sensitise Governments to develop appropriate policy frameworks.

Enhance dissemination and communication for an informed decision making and support.

Enhance public education and awareness including institutional capacity building.

Develop knowledge and share it with relevant institutions. Strengthen Early Warning Systems for monitoring, detection,

attribution and prediction of high impact weather, climate events and climate change.

Prioritize hazards and their mappings.Conduct vulnerability analysis and mapping.Improve accuracy and use of climate and weather

information.Adopt a bottoms-up, community-based approach to DRR

through community sensitization, education and involvement at all stages : from risk mapping and assessment, disaster preparedness, response and recovery stages.

Adopt a multi-hazard approach to DRR. 25

Project HD 02: Hydrometeorological Hazards and Disasters in sub-Saharan Africa: Vulnerability and Resilience

 ObjectivesThe objective of this project is to assess the

vulnerability of socio-ecological systems in sub-Saharan Africa to hydro-meteorological hazards and disasters, and the resilience of communities to these

events. The project also aims at strengthening the capacities of developing countries for disaster

planning and management, and for promoting and facilitating transfer of early warning technologies to

disaster-prone communities.

26

1. Drought events in sub-Saharan AfricaActivities Investigating the impacts of climate change and droughts in the Sahel, including the effect on�agriculture, water resources, air quality, cattle production, ecosystems, and health Set up a long-term warning and monitoring system for climate change, drought and�desertification Develop human and institutional capacity building initiatives at the country and regional levels� Design of advanced early warning and monitoring systems for environmental changes and�agricultural production Strengthening networks of research scientists� Implementation of research protocol at the farm level, with the involvement of the beneficiary�community Involvement of the public and private sectors in the research activities, and communication of�information to all stakeholders, including the practical tools needed to enhance decisionmakingcapability.Expected outcomes Enhancement of scientific knowledge on impacts of climate change and droughts on the Sahel� Accurate and complete hydrologic, agro-meteorological, climatic, and environmental data sets�for future reference in monitoring the evolution of the impact of climate change. Enhanced human and institutional capacity for research� Established strategies for adaptation to drought in the region, particularly with regard to�agricultural production techniques (e.g. farmers’ practical guides) Established monitoring and early warning technologies and strategies� Improved public awareness of the risks of droughts as influence by human activity and climate�change  

27

Sub projects 3. Climate change and socio-economic

determinants for anthropogenic fires inAfrican savannahs4. Dust events and related hazards in

sub-Saharan Africa Activities5. Physical and socio-economic

approaches for supporting adaptive watermanagement in sub-Saharan Africa

(incomplete)

28

Next Steps3 years have elapsed since the formulation of

these projectsChange in paradignms and priorities in certain

sectorsRio +20 conference in Brazil has laid emphasis

on Green economy and Sustainable Development framework.

Need to revisit the subprojects in terms of objectives and outcomes

Need to reformulate the budgetNeed to complete the subproject on Water

29

Conclusion Climate change, the largest environmental change in this

century is likely to intensify hydro-meteorological hazards

and lead to large-scale population movements/ eco-

migration.

Climate change is a human–induced phenomenon. Much

of the issues are intricately linked to social and human

dimensions and the solution to these problems therefore

lies in the social and human dynamics/ action.

No single set of approach can provide solution to the ill

effects of climate change. A mix of technical, behavioral

and policy approaches is needed in minimising the effects

of natural hazards. 30

Conclusion contd.An Integrated Approach is Needed at :

National and regional levels - Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Cooperation across disciplines and agencies Links with academic community.

International level - Between IGOs and NGOs concerned Capacity building and transfer of technology activities. 31

Dry reservoir

32

Drought

33

Flood

34

Sunamis

35

Sunamis

36

37

l

38

39

40

41