© OECD/IEA 2012

A bright future for renewables? Charting a path to energy sustainability

Ms. Maria van der Hoeven

Executive Director

International Energy Agency

Ireland, 11 July 2012

© OECD/IEA 2012

ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures

© OECD/IEA 2012

6DS where the world is now heading with potentially devastating results

The 6°C Scenario

4DS reflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency

The 4°C Scenario

2DS a vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions

The 2°C Scenario

© OECD/IEA 2012

Clean energy: slow lane to fast track

© OECD/IEA 2012

Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas Significant action is required to get back on track

© OECD/IEA 2012

Renewable power generation

42% Average annual

growth in Solar PV

27% Average annual growth in wind

75% Cost reductions in

Solar PV in just three years in

some countries

Renewables provide good news

© OECD/IEA 2012

Renewable power forecast to accelerate

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Hydropower Wind onshore Bioenergy Solar PV

Geothermal Wind offshore CSP Ocean

TWh

Hydropower remains the main renewable power source Non-hydro renewable sources grow at fast rates

© OECD/IEA 2012

Non-hydro sources spread out widely

Growth is expected to shift beyond traditional support markets (OECD) to all regions

Number of countries with installations >100MW increases significantly

0

20

40

60

8020

05

2011

2017

2005

2011

2017

2005

2011

2017

2005

2011

2017

2005

2011

2017

2005

2011

2017

2005

2011

2017

Onshore wind

Offshore wind

Bioenergy Solar PV CSP Geothermal Ocean

Num

ber o

f cou

ntrie

s (>

100M

W)

© OECD/IEA 2012

Renewables need to dominate EU electricity

Renewables cover two-thirds of the electricity mix in 2050 in the 2DS, with wind power alone reaching a share of 30% in the mix.

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

4DS 2DS

2009 2050

TWh

Other renewables

Wind

Solar

Hydro

Nuclear

Fossil w CCS

Fossil w/o CCS

Other renewables

Wind

Solar

Nuclear

Solar

Hydro

Fossil w/o CCS

Fossil w CCS

2009 2050

© OECD/IEA 2012

Maintain Supportive Policies Whilst

Managing Policy Costs

Enable Integration e.g. power system

flexibility for integration of variable RE;

Continue R,D & D for Key Technologies e.g. Offshore Wind,

Enhanced Geothermal , Ocean Energy

Expand RE Market to More Countries e.g. many countries enacted policies but

deployment yet to occur

Redesign and adapt markets

e.g. subsidy removal, carbon pricing

Key measures to maintain momentum….

Leaders in OECD and BRICS

New Markets

© OECD/IEA 2012 © OECD/IEA 2012

A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system

A smart, sustainable energy system

© OECD/IEA 2012

Decarbonising electricity generation in Ireland

Renewables policy emphasis Favourable REFITs extended

Wind =10%; 30% 2020 target

New REFITs for 2nd gen. biomass

Gas is the dominant fuel Now accounts for 62% of power

Will grow in tandem with growth in variable renewables

Coal and peat are declining Carbon tax disincentive

Peat subsidies phased out

Renewables target: 40% generation by 2020

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

TWh

Oil Natural gas Peat Coal Hydro Biofuels and waste Wind

© OECD/IEA 2012

Ireland has some good systems thinking in progress…

Electricity East-West interconnector to GB

Grid25 for wind integration

Extra North-South line needed

Gas Possible Shannon LNG project

Corrib field still not producing

Gas storage is needed

NIMBY problems Local community concerns

Consenting process important

Map of gas pipelines

© OECD/IEA 2012

Electric vehicles need to come of age

© OECD/IEA 2012

0

50

100

150

200

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

FCEV

Electricity

Plug-in hybrid diesel

Plug-in hybrid gasoline

Diesel hybrid

Gasoline hybrid

CNG/LPG

Diesel

Gasoline

Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles

More than 90% of new light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050

Pas

seng

er L

DV

sal

es (m

illio

n)

© OECD/IEA 2012

Clean energy investment pays off

© OECD/IEA 2012

Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.

USD trillion

© OECD/IEA 2012

Recommendations to Governments

© OECD/IEA 2012

1. Create an investment climate of confidence in clean energy

2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future

3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)

© OECD/IEA 2012

www.iea.org/etp

For much more, please visit