a comparison of australia’s and new zealand’s export ... · nzier – a comparison of...

The Institute, its contributors, employees and Board shall not be liable for any loss or damagesustained by any person relying on this report, whatever the cause of such loss or damage.

A comparison of Australia’s andNew Zealand’s export

performance using shift shareanalysis

Report to Treasury

by Phil Briggs and John Ballingall

July 2001

NZ INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH (INC.)

8 Halswell St. Thorndon

P O BOX 3479 WELLINGTON

Tel: (04) 472 1880

Fax: (04) 472 1211

The Institute, its contributors, employees and Board shall not be liable for any loss or damagesustained by any person relying on this report, whatever the cause of such loss or damage.

Preface

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (N Z I E R ),based in Wellington, was founded in 1958 as a non-profitmaking trust to provide economic research and consultancy

services. Best known for its long-established Quarterly Survey of

Business Opinion and forecasting publications, Quarterly

Predictions and the annual Industry Outlook with five-yearlyprojections for 25 sectors, the Institute also undertakes a widerange of consultancy activities for government and privateorganisations. It obtains most of its income from researchcontracts obtained in a competitive market and trades on itsreputation for delivering quality analysis in the right form, andat the right time, for its clients. Quality assurance is providedon the Institute’s work :

• by the interaction of team members on individual projects;

• by exposure of the team’s work to the critical review of a

broader range of Institute staff members at internal

seminars;

• by providing for peer review at various stages through a

project by a senior staff member otherwise disinterested in

the project;

• and sometimes by external peer reviewers at the request of a

client, although this usually entails additional cost.

Authorship

This report has been prepared at NZIER by John Ballingall andPhil Briggs. The assistance of Emma Fan is gratefullyacknowledged.

NZIER – A comparison of Australia’s and New Zealand’s export performance using shift shareanalysis 1

1. INTRODUCTION

Export growth is a key driver of economic growth for many countries. Recent work by

NZIER suggests that the low economic growth experienced by New Zealand since the

1960s can largely be accounted for by low export growth.1 If New Zealand’s real export

growth had matched that of the OECD since the 1960s, New Zealand’s economic

growth would also have been similar to that of the OECD. A further result of this work

is that New Zealand’s low merchandise export growth is mainly due to it having a

composition of exports that is skewed towards the slower-growing sectors.

Australia has fared far better than New Zealand in terms of real GDP and real export

volume growth. It has matched OECD export volume growth since the 1960s, as shown

in Figure 1.2

Figure 1 Real export volumes1990 prices and exchange rates, Index, base 1960 = 100

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996

New Zealand

OECD

Australia

Source: OECD

Why has Australia’s export performance has been so good relative to New Zealand? Is

it because the composition of Australia’s exports are directed more towards faster-

growing commodity groups? Or have Australian exporters simply become more

competitive than New Zealand exporters?

In order to address these issues, we have performed a shift share analysis on both New

Zealand and Australian exports by commodity group. The analysis focuses on three

time periods: 1970 – 1985, 1985 – 1993, and 1993 - 1999. The aim of this report is to

compare Australia and New Zealand exports by determining the rate of export growth

by commodity group for each country compared to the growth of world imports in

each group. 3

1 Briggs, Bishop and Fan (2001).

2 Reprinted from NZIER’s Industry Outlook , p. 24, March 2001. It should be noted that there is an error in

the text explaining this diagram in Industry Outlook . The chart shows export volumes , rather than real

export values as stated in Industry Outlook .

3 I t is important to remember that we are comparing New Zealand and Australia’s exports with worldimports, rather than OECD imports.

A comparison of Australia’s and New Zealand’s export performance using shift shareanalysis 2

2. SHIFT SHARE METHODOLOGY

The shift share technique employed in this report assumes that a country’s export

growth is due to three factors:

1. Growth in world trade - This shows how the country’s exports would have

grown if they had increased at the same rate as total world imports.

2. Commodity composition – This looks at how a country’s exports would have

grown if export growth in each commodity group had increased at the same rate

as world import growth in that group . The difference between total exports

calculated this way and the export growth that would have been experienced if

exports had grown at the same rate as total world imports is the commodity

composition effect.

3. Change in competitiveness – This shows the difference between the actual

change in exports and the change that would have occurred if each commodity

group had grown at the same rate as world import growth in that commodity.

That is , i t shows whether exports have performed better or worse than world

imports.

In order to obtain these results, we obtained three data sets from the United Nation’s

COMTRADE database. Each contained data on 26 commodity groups, measured in

nominal $US for 1970, 1985, 1993, 1998 and 1999. The data sets were:

• ‘World’ imports – we selected 80 of New Zealand and Australia’s major trading

partners to represent ‘the world’. The value of imports by commodity from the

world into each of these countries was obtained.4

• New Zealand’s exports – the value of exports by commodity to the 80 countries

representing the world.

• Australia’s exports - the value of exports by commodity to the 80 countries

representing the world.

These nominal values were then deflated using a United States GDP implicit price

deflator index.5 This gave us export and import values in real 1993 $US. It is these

values that were used in the calculations.

3. PREVIOUS SHIFT SHARE ANALYSES

This report builds upon and extends two previous shift share analyses of New Zealand

exports. Brownie and Dalziel (1993) examined whether the growth in New Zealand’s

real exports over the 1970 – 1984 period matched the growth in world imports. They

did this for the major commodity groups and also provided a separate analysis where

they looked at exports by destination. They found that for nearly all commodity

groups, growth in New Zealand exports had been higher than growth in world

imports in those groups. However, they also found that most of New Zealand’s exports

4 Unless specified, references to the ‘world’ in this report refer to the aggregated 80 major trading partners

for whom data was obtained.

5 See Appendix 2 for the deflator index.


were in commodity groups that had experienced low world import growth. So

although New Zealand exports had performed fairly well , these exports tended to be

concentrated in low growth sectors.

Lattimore and McKeown (1995) updated and extended Brownlie and Dalziel ’s study.

They looked at 2 periods, reflecting the pre-deregulation (1970 – 1985) and post-

regulation (1985-1993) eras. Their methodology was slightly different to the earlier

analysis, as they first isolated the effect of the commodity composit ion on New

Zealand’s total exports, and then identified the additional effect coming from the

growth in the particular countries to whom New Zealand usually exports. Lattimore

and McKeown used a different data source to Brownie and Dalziel, and also used a

different technique in deflating their nominal export and import values. Their results

were less positive than those of Brownie and Dalziel. They found that New Zealand’s

export growth in each of the two periods was slightly less than world import growth.

The results were slightly better in the post-deregulation period, suggesting that

deregulation may have had a small positive effect on export performance. Overall , the

message of the two studies was clear: New Zealand’s export growth was significantly

lower than the growth in world trade, due to the commodity composition of its

exports.

Our analysis uses the same data source as Lattimore and Dalziel – the United Nations’

COMTRADE database - but we have extended the scope of their study by including

three periods, by using data up to 1999, and by also looking at Australia’s exports.

4. RESULTS

Figure 2 shows the average annual growth rates in New Zealand exports, Australian

exports and world imports for a number of periods.

Figure 2 Growth in exportsAverage annual percent change in real $US values

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1970-1999 1970-1985 1985-1993 1993-1999

Australia

New Zealand

World

Source: COMTRADE database, UN

This clearly shows that the performance of New Zealand and Australia exports (in

terms of real values) has been poor relative to growth in world imports. It also


indicates that Australia and New Zealand have experienced fairly similar overall

export growth patterns.

The results of the shift share analyses are set out in Table 1 and Table 2 below. 6

Table 1 Shift share results for New Zealand1993 $US millions

1970-1999 1970-1985 1985-1993 1993-1999

Change in exports 6620 2766 2772 1082

Due to:

Change in world trade 16139 5663 4017 2838

Commodity composition -10020 -3334 -830 -1660

Change in competitiveness 501 436 -415 -96

Source: NZIER

Table 2 Shift share results for Australia1993 $US millions

1970-1999 1970-1985 1985-1993 1993-1999

Change in exports 21876 9760 7631 4486

Due to:

Change in world trade 56299 19756 14080 9310

Commodity composition -28717 -8182 -7839 -5390

Change in competitiveness -5706 -1813 1389 566

Source: NZIER

It is more useful to analyse the results by looking at the average annual percent change

(aapc) in the explanatory variables in the four periods covered. This makes comparing

the performances of Australia and New Zealand easier. Figure 3 and Figure 4 show the

aapcs for the contributions to Australia and New Zealand’s export growth from the

commodity mix and change in competit iveness effects. 7

6 The full tables from the spreadsheets used to calculate these results are provided in Appendix A.

7 The contribution to growth from world trade is the same for both countries, so this chart is not included.


Figure 3 Commodity mixAverage annual percent change

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

1970-1999 1970-1985 1985-1993 1993-1999

Australian commodity mix

New Zealand commodity mix

Source: NZIER

Figure 3 shows that, contrary to expectations, Australia’s commodity mix has had a

negative effect on its export growth over the last three decades. The commodity mix

results were worse for New Zealand, reflecting the reliance of New Zealand’s exports

on agriculture, which has experienced relatively low world growth.

Figure 4 Change in competitivenessAverage annual percent change

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1970-1999 1970-1985 1985-1993 1993-1999

Australian competitiveness

New Zealand competitiveness

Source: NZIER

Figure 4 suggests that in terms of competitiveness – the proportion of export growth

that is not attributable to either world growth or commodity composition – New

Zealand has outperformed Australia over the 1970 - 1999 period. However, this pattern

appears to be changing over time. Since 1985, Australia has become more competitive,

whereas New Zealand’s exports have become less competit iveness.

These results were rather surprising. We had expected to show that Australian exports

had performed better than New Zealand’s exports due to their commodity mix being


more directed in favour of faster-growing sectors. As shown by the negative

commodity composition component of the analysis, this has not been the case.

So in which sectors have Australia and New Zealand under- or over-performed

relative to world imports? Table 3 shows Australia’s sectoral export performance

compared to world imports. The values in the table are calculated using the following

formula:

Sectoral performance = (Actual change in Australia’s exports)

- (change that would have occurred if Australia’s exports in that

sector had grown as fast as world imports in that sector)

Table 3 Under- or over-performance of Australia’sexports by sector1993 $US millions

Commodity 1970-1999 1970-1985 1985-1993 1993-1999

0 Food and live animals -4,780 -1,894 -2,139 466

1 Beverages and tobacco 618 -18 201 421

2 Crude materials (excl. fuels) -72 51 -832 705

3 Mineral fuels 4,070 2,619 2,727 -567

4 Animal, vegetable oil, fats -35 -63 32 1

5 Chemicals -128 -461 610 152

6 Basic manufactures -1,001 -659 546 -316

7 Machines, transport equipment -2,403 -1,301 1,420 -636

8 Misc manufactured goods -190 -203 103 259

9 Other -1,780 115 -1,279 81

Total -5,706 -1,813 1,389 566

Note: All data rounded to nearest $million

Source: NZIER

This table shows that Australia’s exports over the 1970 – 1999 period have under-

performed relative to world imports in all sectors except mineral fuels and beverages

and tobacco. It has performed particularly poorly in the exports of food and live

animals and machines and transport equipment. However, as shown by the number of

grey boxes in each column, the number of sectors in which Australia’s exports have

under-performed world imports has fallen over the three periods analysed. This

suggests that Australia has become more competitive over time, and this is confirmed

by the “Change in competitiveness” row in Table 2 above.

Table 4 (overleaf) shows the same analysis for New Zealand’s exports.

In contrast to Australia, the number of sectors in which New Zealand’s exports have

under-performed relative to world imports has increased over the three periods

covered. New Zealand performed particularly poorly in the 1985 - 1993 period.


Table 4 Under- or over-performance of New Zealand’sexports by sector1993 $US millions

Commodity 1970-1999 1970-1985 1985-1993 1993-1999

0 Food and live animals -1,099 -523 -208 -60

1 Beverages and tobacco 99 13 13 57

2 Crude materials (excl. fuels) -173 53 130 -367

3 Mineral fuels 205 110 173 -47

4 Animal, vegetable oil, fats -21 -8 -5 -5

5 Chemicals -231 -97 -2 8

6 Basic manufactures 827 624 -279 -109

7 Machines, transport equipment 624 115 -23 314

8 Misc manufactured goods 169 143 -198 11

9 Other 100 7 -15 102

Total 500 436 -415 -96

Note: All data rounded to nearest $millionSource: NZIER

In light of the surprisingly poor outcome for Australia, we needed to try to reconcile

these results with Figure 1. If export volumes have grown so strongly, why has

Australia performed poorly in our analysis of export values? We explored a number of

issues.

(i) Was our selection of the 80 countries representing the world leading to a large

understating of Australian exports?

To examine this possibility, we obtained Australian SNA nominal annual export values

to the world from Datastream and converted them into $US using annual average

exchange rates. These values were then deflated using the same $US deflators as used

in the shift share analysis. The growth in real export values over the 1970 –1999 period

using this method was 228%, compared to the 170% that we calculated in our analysis.

This suggests that we may have understated Australia exports. However, when the

shift share analysis was re-calculated using the actual “World” category as the

destination for Australian exports – as opposed to the sum of the 80 countries that we

selected – the results did not alter significantly. The growth in Australia’s exports was

206%, closer to the SNA data growth rate, but Australia still performed poorly in terms

of its commodity mix. The reason that we did not use the actual “W o r l d ” category in

our initial analysis was that there is no way of knowing what kind of data gaps exist in

that category. We do not know which countries are included, and if there are holes in

their data collection processes.

Another reason why our growth rate is lower than that found in the SNA data may be

that we did not include re-exports in our analysis. Re-exports are, however, included in

the SNA data.

(ii) Have world imports grown more quickly than OECD exports?

In Figure 1, Australia’s export volumes were compared to those of the OECD. In our

analysis, we compared Australia’s exports with world imports. So have OECD exports


grown more slowly than world imports? If so, then it is entirely plausible that

Australia’s performance relative to the OECD may look quite strong, despite it

performing poorly against the world. An in-depth analysis of this issue was not

possible due to data constraints – we did not have data on OECD exports. However,

we did look at the imports from the world of OECD’s European members. Assuming

that a large amount of OECD Europe’s imports are sourced within the EU itself, it is

reasonable to suggest that this is an approximate measure of OECD exports. Using this

proxy for OECD exports, we found that on an average annual percent change basis,

OECD Europe’s exports grew at 5.1% between 1970 – 1999. This compares to 6.0% for

world imports. This helps explain why, in Figure 1, Australia appears to have

performed well against the OECD, yet performed poorly in our shift share analysis.

(iii) What has happened to Australia’s export prices?

Our shift share analysis used real export values – that is export values deflated using a

$US GDP deflator. Real values are affected by both export volumes and prices. We

know from Figure 1 that Australia’s volume growth was strong. This raises the

question: how have Australian export prices performed over the periods covered in

our analysis? We obtained data on Australia’s real exports of goods – i.e. a volume

measure – and the goods export price deflator from 1970 –1999. These series are shown

in Figure 5.

Figure 5 Australian goods exports: prices andvolumes$A millions (LHS), Index (RHS)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Goods exports volumes (LHS)

Goods exports price deflator (RHS)

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

This graph clearly shows that since 1989, Australia’s export prices for goods have

declined slightly. So despite strong volume growth, the value of Australia’s exports of

goods, in Australian dollars, has not improved drastically in the 1990s. Furthermore,

given the depreciation of the Australian dollar over recent years, prices of Australian

goods in US dollars have trended downward since the early 1980s, as shown in Figure

6.


Figure 6 Australian export price deflatorsIndex , base 1993 = 100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

$US deflator for Australia's goods exports

$A deflator for Australia's goods exports

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Datastream

As shown in Figure 7, there is a similar pattern for New Zealand’s goods export prices,

although the trend since the early 1980s has been slightly upward.

Figure 7 New Zealand export price deflatorsIndex

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

$NZ deflator for New Zealand'sgoods exports

$US deflator for New Zealand'sgoods exports

Source: Statistics New Zealand, Datastream

A different angle on the relative export performances of New Zealand and Australia is

the issue of purchasing power. As shown in Figure 8, since 1970 Australia’s

merchandise terms of trade has declined more than that of New Zealand. This means

that Australian exporters have been able to buy fewer imports with their export sales

relative to their counterparts in New Zealand. This demonstrates that discussing and

analysing export performance on volumes alone can be misleading – we also need to

consider what can be bought with the receipts from export sales.


Figure 8 Terms of tradeIndex, base = 1970

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998

Australia's Terms of Trade

New Zealand's Terms of Trade

Source: Datastream, Statistics New Zealand

Note: New Zealand’s terms of trade is for merchandise goods only.

5. CONCLUSION

The shift share analyses that we performed produced some surprising results:

• Contrary to our expectations, Australia is in a similar situation to New Zealand in

terms of the commodity composition of its exports. It has, however, gained in

competitiveness since 1985, whereas New Zealand’s competitiveness has decreased

over the same period.

• Australia performed particularly badly in exports of food and live animals. This

suggests that there has been a relative switch towards supplying their domestic

market rather than overseas markets.

• More importantly, our analysis shows that Australia’s strong economic growth

cannot be attributed to the performance of its external sector. It suggests that

domestic demand has been a key driver behind Australia’s success.

The distinction between volume growth and real value growth has important

implications for economic analysis. The strong export volumes experienced by

Australia since 1970 have no doubt contributed to their production GDP being higher

than New Zealand’s GDP. However, by focusing solely on volumes and production

GDP, we do not gain the complete economic picture. Australia’s national income –

their purchasing power – may not have grown as quickly as GDP, and may have grown

at a similar rate to that of New Zealand. This raises the issue of whether GDP is the

most suitable measure of a nation’s economic well-being.

An interesting option for future research would be to perform a shift share analysis to

compare the exports of New Zealand with the exports of various Australian States.


6. REFERENCES

Briggs, P., P. Bishop and E. Fan. (2001). New Zealand’s economic growth: why has it been so

low? NZIER Working Paper.

Brownie, S., and P. Dalziel. (1993). ‘Shift-share analyses of New Zealand exports, 1970-

New Zealand Economic Papers , Vol 27, No. 2.

Lattimore, R., and P. McKeown. (1995). New Zealand’s international trade performance, pre

and post regulation: 1970-1985 and 1985-1993. Lincoln University.

NZIER – A comparison of Australia’s and New Zealand’s export performance using shift share analysis 1

APPENDIX A: FULL SPREADSHEETS

A.1 New Zealand 1970-1999

NZ exports NZ exports World imports World imports Changes in NZ exports

Changes in world imports

Actual changes in NZ export

value

NZ changes using world %

change by sector

NZ changes using world average %

change

NZ export performance

relative to World imports - by sector

1970 1999 1970 1999 70-99% change 70-99% change 1*61 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 7-8

0 Food and live animals 2,203,367 4,473,823 106,284,778 268,803,730 103.0 152.9 2,270,456 3,369,146 9,590,347 -1,098,6900111 Beef 583,545 521,636 5,828,562 11,368,011 -10.6 95.0 -61,909 554,599 2,539,930 -616,5090112 Sheepmeat 645,206 693,434 1,351,996 1,718,270 7.5 27.1 48,228 174,795 2,808,316 -126,56702 Dairy products 645,838 1,505,238 6,654,650 20,382,135 133.1 206.3 859,401 1,332,261 2,811,065 -472,86004 Cereals 8,012 34,428 19,743,960 37,564,860 329.7 90.3 26,416 7,232 34,874 19,18405 Fruit and vegetables 78,061 705,764 20,827,915 61,664,929 804.1 196.1 627,703 153,054 339,769 474,6491 Beverages and tobacco 1,416 104,335 10,972,771 43,180,071 7269.2 293.5 102,919 4,156 6,162 98,7642 Crude materials excluding fuels 1,042,128 1,451,966 97,022,017 151,225,063 39.3 55.9 409,837 582,203 4,535,954 -172,36621 Hides and skins 159,712 116,762 3,731,822 3,863,845 -26.9 3.5 -42,951 5,650 695,162 -48,60124 Wood 125,755 569,838 16,754,585 32,365,749 353.1 93.2 444,083 117,173 547,361 326,91025 Pulp and paper 33,452 170,940 8,146,076 15,446,855 411.0 89.6 137,488 29,980 145,601 107,50826 Textile fibres 613,290 324,840 15,210,819 14,690,119 -47.0 -3.4 -288,451 -20,994 2,669,399 -267,45628 Metal ores and scrap 8,738 32,176 28,113,111 35,206,285 268.2 25.2 23,438 2,205 38,033 21,2333 Mineral fuels 1,322 210,231 82,358,162 303,447,569 15804.1 268.4 208,909 3,549 5,754 205,36132 Coal, coke and briquettes 97 31,404 9,756,979 16,723,586 32209.6 71.4 31,306 69 423 31,23733 Petrol and petrol products 1,215 12,023 69,739,319 241,678,342 889.5 246.5 10,808 2,995 5,288 7,8124 Animal, vegetable oil, fats 33,678 65,811 6,188,887 16,026,355 95.4 159.0 32,133 53,533 146,588 -21,4015 Chemicals 143,756 795,037 59,258,641 423,001,240 453.0 613.8 651,281 882,406 625,711 -231,1256 Basic manufactures 190,928 1,520,364 173,014,233 628,195,545 696.3 263.1 1,329,436 502,312 831,033 827,12468 Aluminum 13,825 449,631 35,813,930 82,292,614 3152.4 129.8 435,806 17,941 60,172 417,8657 Machines, transport equipment 55,661 1,099,192 214,282,051 1,826,848,757 1874.8 752.5 1,043,531 418,873 242,269 624,6588 Miscellaneous manufactured goods 35,347 502,283 67,577,429 637,846,011 1321.0 843.9 466,936 298,284 153,851 168,6529 Other 411 104,721 10,575,113 130,873,526 25351.0 1137.6 104,310 4,681 1,791 99,629

TOTAL 3,708,016 10,327,763 827,534,082 4,429,447,867 178.5 435.3 6,619,747 6,119,142 16,139,459 500,606

A comparison of Australia’s and New Zealand’s export performance using shift share analysis 2





value


change by sector


change



1970 1985 1970 1985 70-85% change 70-85% change 1*61 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 7-8

0 Food and live animals 2,203,367 3,047,367 106,284,778 172,234,455 38.3 62.0 844,000 1,367,189 3,365,302 -523,1890111 Beef 583,545 567,345 5,828,562 7,695,275 -2.8 32.0 -16,200 186,892 891,275 -203,0920112 Sheepmeat 645,206 682,319 1,351,996 1,261,206 5.8 -6.7 37,113 -43,327 985,452 80,44002 Dairy products 645,838 821,396 6,654,650 12,677,971 27.2 90.5 175,558 584,567 986,417 -409,00904 Cereals 8,012 27,974 19,743,960 28,865,064 249.1 46.2 19,962 3,701 12,237 16,26105 Fruit and vegetables 78,061 354,179 20,827,915 34,823,758 353.7 67.2 276,117 52,455 119,227 223,6621 Beverages and tobacco 1,416 15,357 10,972,771 20,230,517 984.7 84.4 13,941 1,195 2,162 12,7462 Crude materials excluding fuels 1,042,128 1,402,167 97,022,017 125,568,362 34.5 29.4 360,038 306,621 1,591,690 53,41721 Hides and skins 159,712 247,158 3,731,822 5,906,544 54.8 58.3 87,445 93,072 243,936 -5,62724 Wood 125,755 102,194 16,754,585 20,138,420 -18.7 20.2 -23,561 25,398 192,072 -48,95925 Pulp and paper 33,452 126,957 8,146,076 11,145,858 279.5 36.8 93,505 12,319 51,092 81,18726 Textile fibres 613,290 770,105 15,210,819 17,596,077 25.6 15.7 156,815 96,172 936,706 60,64328 Metal ores and scrap 8,738 31,072 28,113,111 30,752,303 255.6 9.4 22,334 820 13,346 21,5143 Mineral fuels 1,322 117,035 82,358,162 410,294,798 8753.8 398.2 115,713 5,263 2,019 110,45032 Coal, coke and briquettes 97 27,106 9,756,979 21,867,754 27788.1 124.1 27,009 121 148 26,88833 Petrol and petrol products 1,215 29,076 69,739,319 338,403,512 2293.2 385.2 27,862 4,680 1,856 23,1814 Animal, vegetable oil, fats 33,678 63,721 6,188,887 13,265,292 89.2 114.3 30,042 38,508 51,439 -8,4665 Chemicals 143,756 323,076 59,258,641 173,061,182 124.7 192.0 179,320 276,075 219,565 -96,7556 Basic manufactures 190,928 964,402 173,014,233 308,713,038 405.1 78.4 773,473 149,749 291,614 623,72468 Aluminum 13,825 333,506 35,813,930 43,575,710 2312.4 21.7 319,681 2,996 21,115 316,6857 Machines, transport equipment 55,661 273,959 214,282,051 611,112,654 392.2 185.2 218,298 103,079 85,013 115,2198 Miscellaneous manufactured goods 35,347 259,213 67,577,429 222,982,467 633.3 230.0 223,867 81,286 53,987 142,5819 Other 411 7,898 10,575,113 34,001,316 1819.5 221.5 7,487 911 628 6,575

TOTAL 3,708,016 6,474,194 827,534,082 2,091,464,082 74.6 152.7 2,766,178 2,329,876 5,663,419 436,302






value


change by sector


change

NZ export performance relative to World imports - by

sector

1985 1993 1985 1993 85-93% change 85-93% change 1*61 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 7-8

0 Food and live animals 3,047,367 4,233,662 172,234,455 251,024,576 38.9 45.7 1,186,295 1,394,044 1,890,620 -207,7500111 Beef 567,345 728,217 7,695,275 13,110,785 28.4 70.4 160,872 399,266 351,987 -238,394

0112 Sheepmeat 682,319 678,582 1,261,206 1,823,233 -0.5 44.6 -3,737 304,059 423,318 -307,79602 Dairy products 821,396 1,274,074 12,677,971 21,047,498 55.1 66.0 452,678 542,255 509,603 -89,57704 Cereals 27,974 19,482 28,865,064 36,529,110 -30.4 26.6 -8,492 7,428 17,356 -15,920

05 Fruit and vegetables 354,179 577,648 34,823,758 54,640,148 63.1 56.9 223,469 201,545 219,736 21,9251 Beverages and tobacco 15,357 40,452 20,230,517 36,701,766 163.4 81.4 25,095 12,503 9,528 12,5922 Crude materials excluding fuels 1,402,167 1,805,605 125,568,362 150,122,386 28.8 19.6 403,438 274,184 869,919 129,254

21 Hides and skins 247,158 199,379 5,906,544 4,967,469 -19.3 -15.9 -47,779 -39,295 153,339 -8,48324 Wood 102,194 696,289 20,138,420 33,876,891 581.3 68.2 594,095 69,717 63,402 524,37825 Pulp and paper 126,957 168,495 11,145,858 13,074,677 32.7 17.3 41,538 21,970 78,766 19,568

26 Textile fibres 770,105 476,978 17,596,077 18,087,460 -38.1 2.8 -293,127 21,506 477,782 -314,63328 Metal ores and scrap 31,072 24,995 30,752,303 34,107,108 -19.6 10.9 -6,077 3,390 19,278 -9,4673 Mineral fuels 117,035 260,040 410,294,798 306,471,901 122.2 -25.3 143,005 -29,615 72,610 172,620

32 Coal, coke and briquettes 27,106 38,148 21,867,754 19,234,806 40.7 -12.0 11,042 -3,264 16,817 14,30633 Petrol and petrol products 29,076 65,919 338,403,512 246,464,610 126.7 -27.2 36,843 -7,900 18,039 44,7424 Animal, vegetable oil, fats 63,721 56,471 13,265,292 12,776,224 -11.4 -3.7 -7,250 -2,349 39,533 -4,900

5 Chemicals 323,076 567,765 173,061,182 305,015,564 75.7 76.2 244,689 246,336 200,440 -1,6476 Basic manufactures 964,402 1,366,118 308,713,038 526,711,030 41.7 70.6 401,716 681,013 598,325 -279,29768 Aluminum 333,506 376,081 43,575,710 60,749,043 12.8 39.4 42,575 131,436 206,911 -88,861

7 Machines, transport equipment 273,959 525,161 611,112,654 1,222,487,210 91.7 100.0 251,202 274,076 169,967 -22,8748 Miscellaneous manufactured goods 259,213 389,160 222,982,467 505,007,008 50.1 126.5 129,947 327,849 160,819 -197,9029 Other 7,898 1,583 34,001,316 72,713,374 -80.0 113.9 -6,315 8,992 4,900 -15,307

TOTAL 6,474,194 9,246,017 2,091,464,082 3,389,031,039 42.8 62.0 2,771,823 3,187,034 4,016,660 -415,210






value


change by sector


change



1993 1999 1993 1999 93-99% change 93-99% change 1*61 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 7-8

0 Food and live animals 4,233,662 4,473,823 251,024,576 268,803,730 5.7 7.1 240,161 299,855 1,299,715 -59,6940111 Beef 728,217 521,636 13,110,785 11,368,011 -28.4 -13.3 -206,581 -96,800 223,559 -109,7820112 Sheepmeat 678,582 693,434 1,823,233 1,718,270 2.2 -5.8 14,852 -39,066 208,322 53,91802 Dairy products 1,274,074 1,505,238 21,047,498 20,382,135 18.1 -3.2 231,164 -40,277 391,135 271,44104 Cereals 19,482 34,428 36,529,110 37,564,860 76.7 2.8 14,946 552 5,981 14,394

05 Fruit and vegetables 577,648 705,764 54,640,148 61,664,929 22.2 12.9 128,116 74,265 177,335 53,8511 Beverages and tobacco 40,452 104,335 36,701,766 43,180,071 157.9 17.7 63,883 7,140 12,419 56,7432 Crude materials excluding fuels 1,805,605 1,451,966 150,122,386 151,225,063 -19.6 0.7 -353,639 13,263 554,312 -366,90221 Hides and skins 199,379 116,762 4,967,469 3,863,845 -41.4 -22.2 -82,617 -44,296 61,208 -38,32124 Wood 696,289 569,838 33,876,891 32,365,749 -18.2 -4.5 -126,451 -31,059 213,757 -95,39225 Pulp and paper 168,495 170,940 13,074,677 15,446,855 1.5 18.1 2,445 30,571 51,727 -28,12626 Textile fibres 476,978 324,840 18,087,460 14,690,119 -31.9 -18.8 -152,138 -89,590 146,430 -62,54828 Metal ores and scrap 24,995 32,176 34,107,108 35,206,285 28.7 3.2 7,181 806 7,673 6,3753 Mineral fuels 260,040 210,231 306,471,901 303,447,569 -19.2 -1.0 -49,809 -2,566 79,831 -47,24332 Coal, coke and briquettes 38,148 31,404 19,234,806 16,723,586 -17.7 -13.1 -6,744 -4,980 11,711 -1,76433 Petrol and petrol products 65,919 12,023 246,464,610 241,678,342 -81.8 -1.9 -53,896 -1,280 20,237 -52,6164 Animal, vegetable oil, fats 56,471 65,811 12,776,224 16,026,355 16.5 25.4 9,340 14,366 17,336 -5,0265 Chemicals 567,765 795,037 305,015,564 423,001,240 40.0 38.7 227,272 219,622 174,301 7,6506 Basic manufactures 1,366,118 1,520,364 526,711,030 628,195,545 11.3 19.3 154,246 263,218 419,392 -108,97268 Aluminum 376,081 449,631 60,749,043 82,292,614 19.6 35.5 73,550 133,370 115,455 -59,8217 Machines, transport equipment 525,161 1,099,192 1,222,487,210 1,826,848,757 109.3 49.4 574,031 259,624 161,222 314,4078 Miscellaneous manufactured goods 389,160 502,283 505,007,008 637,846,011 29.1 26.3 113,123 102,366 119,470 10,7569 Other 1,583 104,721 72,713,374 130,873,526 6515.4 80.0 103,138 1,266 486 101,872

TOTAL 9,246,017 10,327,763 3,389,031,039 4,429,447,867 11.7 30.7 1,081,746 1,178,153 2,838,484 -96,408


A.5 Australia 1970-1999

Aus exports Aus exports World imports World imports Changes in Aus exports


Actual changes in Aus export

value

Aus changes using world %

change by sector

Aus changes using world average %

change

Aus export performance


1970 1999 1970 1999 70-99% change 70-99% change 1*61 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 7-8

0 Food and live animals 4,446,757 6,466,053 106,284,778 268,803,730 45.4 152.9 2,019,296 6,799,490 19,354,894 -4,780,1930111 Beef 1,012,970 1,725,632 5,828,562 11,368,011 70.4 95.0 712,662 962,723 4,409,038 -250,0610112 Sheepmeat 254,537 337,583 1,351,996 1,718,270 32.6 27.1 83,047 68,958 1,107,893 14,08902 Dairy products 330,019 1,129,887 6,654,650 20,382,135 242.4 206.3 799,868 680,777 1,436,437 119,09104 Cereals 1,518,029 475,657 19,743,960 37,564,860 -68.7 90.3 -1,042,372 1,370,173 6,607,353 -2,412,54505 Fruit and vegetables 369,811 657,667 20,827,915 61,664,929 77.8 196.1 287,855 725,084 1,609,635 -437,2281 Beverages and tobacco 36,358 761,710 10,972,771 43,180,071 1995.0 293.5 725,352 106,717 158,250 618,6352 Crude materials excluding fuels 4,289,186 6,613,065 97,022,017 151,225,063 54.2 55.9 2,323,879 2,396,229 18,669,053 -72,35021 Hides and skins 264,046 99,128 3,731,822 3,863,845 -62.5 3.5 -164,918 9,341 1,149,282 -174,25924 Wood 12,788 63,169 16,754,585 32,365,749 394.0 93.2 50,381 11,915 55,660 38,46625 Pulp and paper 1,730 17,406 8,146,076 15,446,855 906.1 89.6 15,676 1,551 7,530 14,12526 Textile fibres 2,011,214 2,259,664 15,210,819 14,690,119 12.4 -3.4 248,449 -68,848 8,753,984 317,29828 Metal ores and scrap 1,887,600 3,480,891 28,113,111 35,206,285 84.4 25.2 1,593,290 476,257 8,215,944 1,117,0333 Mineral fuels 798,251 7,011,024 82,358,162 303,447,569 778.3 268.4 6,212,773 2,142,894 3,474,456 4,069,87932 Coal, coke and briquettes 676,393 4,672,301 9,756,979 16,723,586 590.8 71.4 3,995,908 482,953 2,944,059 3,512,95533 Petrol and petrol products 113,457 2,094,945 69,739,319 241,678,342 1746.5 246.5 1,981,489 279,722 493,831 1,701,7664 Animal, vegetable oil, fats 79,059 170,170 6,188,887 16,026,355 115.2 159.0 91,111 125,668 344,112 -34,5565 Chemicals 283,621 1,896,157 59,258,641 423,001,240 568.6 613.8 1,612,536 1,740,928 1,234,485 -128,3936 Basic manufacturers 1,864,270 5,764,359 173,014,233 628,195,545 209.2 263.1 3,900,089 4,904,688 8,114,397 -1,004,60068 Aluminum 1,027,222 3,042,286 35,813,930 82,292,614 196.2 129.8 2,015,064 1,333,110 4,471,072 681,9537 Machines, transport equipment 792,873 4,356,104 214,282,051 1,826,848,757 449.4 752.5 3,563,231 5,966,716 3,451,047 -2,403,4858 Miscellaneous manufactured goods 176,288 1,473,629 67,577,429 637,846,011 735.9 843.9 1,297,342 1,487,645 767,307 -190,3049 Other 167,981 298,596 10,575,113 130,873,526 77.8 1137.6 130,615 1,910,882 731,150 -1,780,266

TOTAL 12,934,642 34,810,866 827,534,082 4,429,447,867 169.1 435.3 21,876,224 27,581,856 56,299,150 -5,705,633






value


change by sector


change

Aus export performance relative to World imports - by

sector

1970 1985 1970 1985 70-85% change 70-85% change 1*61 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 7-8

0 Food and live animals 4,446,757 5,312,147 106,284,778 172,234,455 19.5 62.0 865,391 2,759,211 6,791,731 -1,893,8210111 Beef 1,012,970 1,073,092 5,828,562 7,695,275 5.9 32.0 60,122 324,424 1,547,154 -264,3020112 Sheepmeat 254,537 123,269 1,351,996 1,261,206 -51.6 -6.7 -131,268 -17,093 388,765 -114,17502 Dairy products 330,019 347,075 6,654,650 12,677,971 5.2 90.5 17,056 298,710 504,053 -281,65404 Cereals 1,518,029 2,597,207 19,743,960 28,865,064 71.1 46.2 1,079,178 701,283 2,318,554 377,89505 Fruit and vegetables 369,811 272,978 20,827,915 34,823,758 -26.2 67.2 -96,833 248,504 564,829 -345,3371 Beverages and tobacco 36,358 48,586 10,972,771 20,230,517 33.6 84.4 12,228 30,675 55,531 -18,4472 Crude materials excluding fuels 4,289,186 5,602,109 97,022,017 125,568,362 30.6 29.4 1,312,923 1,261,988 6,551,066 50,93621 Hides and skins 264,046 271,896 3,731,822 5,906,544 3.0 58.3 7,851 153,873 403,289 -146,02224 Wood 12,788 14,193 16,754,585 20,138,420 11.0 20.2 1,406 2,583 19,531 -1,17725 Pulp and paper 1,730 12,221 8,146,076 11,145,858 606.4 36.8 10,490 637 2,642 9,85326 Textile fibres 2,011,214 2,291,295 15,210,819 17,596,077 13.9 15.7 280,081 315,385 3,071,818 -35,30428 Metal ores and scrap 1,887,600 2,802,849 28,113,111 30,752,303 48.5 9.4 915,249 177,203 2,883,017 738,0453 Mineral fuels 798,251 6,595,982 82,358,162 410,294,798 726.3 398.2 5,797,731 3,178,503 1,219,204 2,619,22732 Coal, coke and briquettes 676,393 4,537,970 9,756,979 21,867,754 570.9 124.1 3,861,577 839,568 1,033,086 3,022,00933 Petrol and petrol products 113,457 2,058,011 69,739,319 338,403,512 1713.9 385.2 1,944,555 437,082 173,288 1,507,4734 Animal, vegetable oil, fats 79,059 106,923 6,188,887 13,265,292 35.2 114.3 27,864 90,397 120,751 -62,5335 Chemicals 283,621 367,480 59,258,641 173,061,182 29.6 192.0 83,859 544,677 433,187 -460,8186 Basic manufacturers 1,864,270 2,667,769 173,014,233 308,713,038 43.1 78.4 803,499 1,462,187 2,847,383 -658,68868 Aluminum 1,027,222 1,459,894 35,813,930 43,575,710 42.1 21.7 432,672 222,625 1,568,922 210,0487 Machines, transport equipment 792,873 959,932 214,282,051 611,112,654 21.1 185.2 167,059 1,468,327 1,210,990 -1,301,2688 Miscellaneous manufactured goods 176,288 379,060 67,577,429 222,982,467 115.0 230.0 202,773 405,401 269,252 -202,6289 Other 167,981 654,670 10,575,113 34,001,316 289.7 221.5 486,690 372,114 256,564 114,576

TOTAL 12,934,642 22,694,658 827,534,082 2,091,464,082 75.5 152.7 9,760,016 11,573,480 19,755,660 -1,813,464






value


change by sector


change

Aus export performance relative to World imports - by

sector

1985 1993 1985 1993 85-93% change 85-93% change 1*61 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 7-8

0 Food and live animals 5,312,147 5,602,982 172,234,455 251,024,576 5.5 45.7 290,835 2,430,087 3,295,714 -2,139,2530111 Beef 1,073,092 2,140,464 7,695,275 13,110,785 99.5 70.4 1,067,372 755,183 665,758 312,1900112 Sheepmeat 123,269 277,173 1,261,206 1,823,233 124.9 44.6 153,904 54,932 76,478 98,97202 Dairy products 347,075 708,421 12,677,971 21,047,498 104.1 66.0 361,346 229,126 215,329 132,22004 Cereals 2,597,207 339,182 28,865,064 36,529,110 -86.9 26.6 -2,258,025 689,592 1,611,335 -2,947,61705 Fruit and vegetables 272,978 602,005 34,823,758 54,640,148 120.5 56.9 329,027 155,338 169,358 173,6901 Beverages and tobacco 48,586 289,409 20,230,517 36,701,766 495.7 81.4 240,823 39,558 30,143 201,2652 Crude materials excluding fuels 5,602,109 5,865,342 125,568,362 150,122,386 4.7 19.6 263,233 1,095,454 3,475,609 -832,22121 Hides and skins 271,896 221,481 5,906,544 4,967,469 -18.5 -15.9 -50,415 -43,228 168,687 -7,18724 Wood 14,193 44,014 20,138,420 33,876,891 210.1 68.2 29,821 9,683 8,806 20,13825 Pulp and paper 12,221 10,069 11,145,858 13,074,677 -17.6 17.3 -2,152 2,115 7,582 -4,26626 Textile fibres 2,291,295 2,451,307 17,596,077 18,087,460 7.0 2.8 160,012 63,986 1,421,544 96,02628 Metal ores and scrap 2,802,849 2,781,352 30,752,303 34,107,108 -0.8 10.9 -21,497 305,766 1,738,918 -327,2633 Mineral fuels 6,595,982 7,653,574 410,294,798 306,471,901 16.0 -25.3 1,057,592 -1,669,078 4,092,218 2,726,67032 Coal, coke and briquettes 4,537,970 5,298,703 21,867,754 19,234,806 16.8 -12.0 760,733 -546,386 2,815,406 1,307,11933 Petrol and petrol products 2,058,011 1,611,509 338,403,512 246,464,610 -21.7 -27.2 -446,502 -559,129 1,276,813 112,6274 Animal, vegetable oil, fats 106,923 135,080 13,265,292 12,776,224 26.3 -3.7 28,157 -3,942 66,336 32,0995 Chemicals 367,480 1,257,671 173,061,182 305,015,564 242.2 76.2 890,191 280,193 227,988 609,9986 Basic manufacturers 2,667,769 5,097,753 308,713,038 526,711,030 91.1 70.6 2,429,984 1,883,848 1,655,113 546,13668 Aluminum 1,459,894 2,489,641 43,575,710 60,749,043 70.5 39.4 1,029,747 575,349 905,734 454,3987 Machines, transport equipment 959,932 3,340,723 611,112,654 1,222,487,210 248.0 100.0 2,380,791 960,344 595,552 1,420,4478 Miscellaneous manufactured goods 379,060 961,727 222,982,467 505,007,008 153.7 126.5 582,667 479,429 235,173 103,2379 Other 654,670 121,049 34,001,316 72,713,374 -81.5 113.9 -533,621 745,372 406,164 -1,278,993

TOTAL 22,694,658 30,325,310 2,091,464,082 3,389,031,039 33.6 62.0 7,630,652 6,241,264 14,080,012 1,389,387






value


change by sector


change

Aus export performance relative

to World imports - by sector

1993 1999 1993 1999 93-99% change 93-99% change 1*61 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 7-8

0 Food and live animals 5,602,982 6,466,053 251,024,576 268,803,730 15.4 7.1 863,071 396,839 1,720,090 466,2320111 Beef 2,140,464 1,725,632 13,110,785 11,368,011 -19.4 -13.3 -414,832 -284,525 657,113 -130,3070112 Sheepmeat 277,173 337,583 1,823,233 1,718,270 21.8 -5.8 60,410 -15,957 85,091 76,36702 Dairy products 708,421 1,129,887 21,047,498 20,382,135 59.5 -3.2 421,466 -22,395 217,482 443,86104 Cereals 339,182 475,657 36,529,110 37,564,860 40.2 2.8 136,475 9,617 104,127 126,85805 Fruit and vegetables 602,005 657,667 54,640,148 61,664,929 9.2 12.9 55,662 77,396 184,813 -21,7351 Beverages and tobacco 289,409 761,710 36,701,766 43,180,071 163.2 17.7 472,301 51,084 88,847 421,2172 Crude materials excluding fuels 5,865,342 6,613,065 150,122,386 151,225,063 12.7 0.7 747,723 43,082 1,800,633 704,64121 Hides and skins 221,481 99,128 4,967,469 3,863,845 -55.2 -22.2 -122,353 -49,206 67,994 -73,14624 Wood 44,014 63,169 33,876,891 32,365,749 43.5 -4.5 19,155 -1,963 13,512 21,11925 Pulp and paper 10,069 17,406 13,074,677 15,446,855 72.9 18.1 7,337 1,827 3,091 5,51026 Textile fibres 2,451,307 2,259,664 18,087,460 14,690,119 -7.8 -18.8 -191,643 -460,425 752,540 268,78228 Metal ores and scrap 2,781,352 3,480,891 34,107,108 35,206,285 25.2 3.2 699,539 89,635 853,862 609,9043 Mineral fuels 7,653,574 7,011,024 306,471,901 303,447,569 -8.4 -1.0 -642,550 -75,527 2,349,612 -567,02332 Coal, coke and briquettes 5,298,703 4,672,301 19,234,806 16,723,586 -11.8 -13.1 -626,402 -691,778 1,626,677 65,37633 Petrol and petrol products 1,611,509 2,094,945 246,464,610 241,678,342 30.0 -1.9 483,436 -31,295 494,726 514,7314 Animal, vegetable oil, fats 135,080 170,170 12,776,224 16,026,355 26.0 25.4 35,090 34,363 41,469 7285 Chemicals 1,257,671 1,896,157 305,015,564 423,001,240 50.8 38.7 638,486 486,490 386,099 151,9956 Basic manufacturers 5,097,753 5,764,359 526,711,030 628,195,545 13.1 19.3 666,606 982,214 1,564,987 -315,60868 Aluminum 2,489,641 3,042,286 60,749,043 82,292,614 22.2 35.5 552,645 882,907 764,308 -330,2627 Machines, transport equipment 3,340,723 4,356,104 1,222,487,210 1,826,848,757 30.4 49.4 1,015,381 1,651,555 1,025,586 -636,1748 Miscellaneous manufactured goods 961,727 1,473,629 505,007,008 637,846,011 53.2 26.3 511,902 252,976 295,246 258,9269 Other 121,049 298,596 72,713,374 130,873,526 146.7 80.0 177,547 96,822 37,161 80,725

TOTAL 30,325,310 34,810,866 3,389,031,039 4,429,447,867 14.8 30.7 4,485,556 3,919,898 9,309,730 565,658


APPENDIX B: DEFLATORS

Table 5 Price deflator

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

30.87 32.43 33.79 35.77 38.89 42.54 44.94 47.86 51.20 55.58

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989

60.58 66.32 70.39 73.20 75.91 78.31 80.08 82.48 85.30 88.53

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

91.97 95.31 97.60 100.00 102.09 104.28 106.26 108.34 109.70 111.37

Source: Datastream

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