a congress of cowards
DESCRIPTION
Congress is punting again, this time on the tax cut extension. This pattern, which has led to the lowest approval levels since measures of approval were taken, has become chronic. It’s really about the bulk of the members of congress being cowards who are intentionally destroying the balance of powers between legislative, Judiciary and Executive, so they can save their jobs.TRANSCRIPT
A Congress of Cowards
Rob KallOpEd NewsDecember 20 2011
Congress is punting again this timeon the tax cut extension This patternwhich has led to the lowest approvallevels since measures of approvalwere taken has become chronic Itrsquosreally about the bulk of the membersof congress being cowards who areintentionally destroying the balance ofpowers between legislative Judiciaryand Executive so they can save theirjobs
Recent conversations with folks likeBruce Fein and Thom Hartmann haveconvinced me that the congress is staffed predominantly by cowards who in failing to maketough decisions are destroying the three way balance between the executive justice andlegislative branches Cowards who hand the decisions to the SCOTUS or the White House sothey can save their jobs through the next congressional election cycle
They avoid making tough economic decisions by creating bogus committees which also failThey defer on making hard votes on going to war handing the power over to the White House
They let the Supreme court rideroughshod over decisions made byelected officials The despoticcorporatists in the Supreme courtwere not elected At least several areunethical and the congress does notimpeach them The congress couldeasily slap down the Supreme courtand its excesses It could evenimpeach those Justices who have soldout to corporations and foreigninterests
It is time to end the idea of serving incongress as a career Members ofcongress should be elected for one
term and no more Rotate theelections so all members senatorsand House members have fouryear terms Replace 25 eachyear American can no longerafford waiting six years to replace asenate whore who sells his vote tocorporations American cannotallow an entire house to exist for afull two years before thelegislators who manifest aswhores or idiots are replaced Sowe also need recall processes at afederal level
Congress is profoundly broken The people in it cannot fixthe problem they are creating
There are a few brave souls in congress who haveattempted to retain the powers they were givenndash SandersKucinich Paul But I say that we-the-people must takewhatever steps are necessary to end the current life careersystem that congressional jobs are based on It willprobably take a revolution of some sort to do it Letrsquos hopeitrsquos more like what happened in Tunisia The non-violentOccupy Movement could do it Wersquoll see But therersquos nodoubt in my mind that America needs big changes muchbigger than the gutless corporate sell-outs in congress arewilling or able to do
Playing with fire Obamas threat toChina1 Michael Klare
Dec 10 2011
When it comes to China policy is the Obama administration leaping from the frying pan directlyinto the fire In an attempt to turn the page on two disastrous wars in the greater Middle East itmay have just launched a new Cold War in Asia - once again viewing oil as the key to global supremacy
The new policy was signalled by President Obama himself on November 17 in an
1 address to the Australian Parliament in which he laid out an audacious - and extremelydangerous - geopolitical vision Instead of focusing on the greater Middle East as has been thecase for the last decade the United States will now concentrate its power in Asia and the Pacific
My guidance is clear he declared in Canberra As we plan and budget for the future we will
allocate the resources necessary to maintainour strong military presence in this region
While administration officials insist that thisnew policy is not aimed specifically at Chinathe implication is clear enough from now onthe primary focus of US military strategy willnot be counterterrorism but the containmentof that economically booming land - atwhatever risk or cost
The planets new centre of gravity
The new emphasis on Asia and thecontainment of China is necessary top officials insist because the Asia-Pacific region nowconstitutes the centre of gravity of world economic activity While the United States wasbogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan the argument goes China had the leeway to expand itsinfluence in the region
For the first time since the end of World War II Washington is no longer the dominant economicactor there If the United States is to retain its title as the worlds paramount power it must thisthinking goes restore its primacy in the region and roll back Chinese influence In the comingdecades no foreign policy task will it is claimed be more important than this
In line with its new strategy the administration has undertaken a number of moves intended tobolster US power in Asia and so put China on the defensive These include a decision to deployan initial 250 US Marines - someday to be upped to 2500 - to an Australian air base in Darwinon that countrys north coast and the adoption on November 18 of the Manila Declaration apledge of closer US military ties with the Philippines
An economically weakened United States can no longer hope to prevail in multiple regionssimultaneously
At the same time the White House announced the sale of 24 F-16 fighter jets to Indonesia and avisit by Hillary Clinton to isolated Burma long a Chinese ally - the first there by a secretary ofstate in 56 years Clinton has also spoken of increased diplomatic and military ties withSingapore Thailand and Vietnam - all countries surrounding China or overlooking key traderoutes that China relies on for importing raw materials and exporting manufactured goods
As portrayed by administration officials such moves are intended to maximise Americasadvantages in the diplomatic and military realm at a time when China dominates the economicrealm regionally In a recent article in Foreign Policy magazine Clinton revealingly suggestedthat an economically weakened United States can no longer hope to prevail in multiple regionssimultaneously It must choose its battlefields carefully and deploy its limited assets - most ofthem of a military nature - to maximum advantage Given Asias strategic centrality to globalpower this means concentrating resources there
Over the last ten years she writeswe have allocated immense resourcesto [Iraq and Afghanistan] In the nextten years we need to be smart andsystematic about where we invest timeand energy so that we put ourselves inthe best position to sustain ourleadership [and] secure our interests One of the most important tasks ofAmerican statecraft over the nextdecade will therefore be to lock in asubstantially increased investment -diplomatic economic strategic andotherwise - in the Asia-Pacific region
Such thinking with its distinctly military focus appears dangerously provocative The stepsannounced entail an increased military presence in waters bordering China and enhanced militaryties with that countrys neighbours - moves certain to arouse alarm in Beijing and strengthen thehand of those in the ruling circle (especially in the Chinese military leadership) who favour amore activist militarised response to US incursions
Whatever forms that takes one thing is certain the leadership of the globes number twoeconomic power is not going to let itself appear weak and indecisive in the face of a US buildupon the periphery of its country This in turn means that we may be sowing the seeds of a newCold War in Asia in 2011
The US military buildup and the potential for a powerful Chinese counter-thrust have alreadybeen the subject of discussion in the American and Asian press But one crucial dimension of thisincipient struggle has received no attention at all the degree to which Washingtons suddenmoves have been dictated by a fresh analysis of the global energy equation revealing (as theObama administration sees it) increased vulnerabilities for the Chinese side and new advantages
for Washington
The new energy equation
For decades the United States has been heavilydependent on imported oil much of it obtained fromthe Middle East and Africa while China was largelyself-sufficient in oil output In 2001 the United Statesconsumed 196 million barrels of oil per day whileproducing only nine million barrels itself Thedependency on foreign suppliers for that 106 million-barrel shortfall proved a source of enormous concernfor Washington policymakers They responded byforging ever closer more militarised ties with MiddleEastern oil producers and going to war on occasion to
ensure the safety of US supply linesIn 2001 China onthe other hand consumed only five million barrels perday and so with a domestic output of 33 millionbarrels needed to import only 17 million barrels Thosecold hard numbers made its leadership far lessconcerned about the reliability of the countrys majoroverseas providers - and so it did not need to duplicatethe same sort of foreign policy entanglements thatWashington had long been involved inNow so the Obama administration has concluded thetables are beginning to turn As a result of Chinasbooming economy and the emergence of a sizeable andgrowing middle class (many of whom have already bought their first cars) the countrys oilconsumption is exploding Running at about 78 million barrels per day in 2008 it willaccording to recent projections by the US Department of Energy reach 136 million barrels in2020 and 169 million in 2035
Domestic oil production on the other hand is expected to grow from 40 million barrels per dayin 2008 to 53 million in 2035 Not surprisingly then Chinese imports are expected to skyrocketfrom 38 million barrels per day in 2008 to a projected 116 million in 2035 - at which time theywill exceed those of the United States
Thanks to increased production in tough oil areas of the United States future importsare expected to decline even as energy consumption rises
The US meanwhile can look forward to an improved energy situation Thanks to increasedproduction in tough oil areas of the United States including the Arctic seas off Alaska thedeep waters of the Gulf of Mexico and shale formations in Montana North Dakota and Texasfuture imports are expected to decline even as energy consumption rises
In addition more oil is likely to be available from the Western Hemisphere rather than theMiddle East or Africa Again this will be thanks to the exploitation of yet more tough oil areasincluding the Athabasca tar sands of Canada Brazilian oil fields in the deep Atlantic andincreasingly pacified energy-rich regions of previously war-torn Colombia According to theDepartment of Energy combined production in the United States Canada and Brazil is expectedto climb by 106 million barrels per day between 2009 and 2035 - an enormous jump consideringthat most areas of the world are expecting declining output
Whose sea lanes are these anywayFrom a geopolitical perspective all this seems to confer a genuine advantage on the UnitedStates even as China becomes ever more vulnerable to the vagaries of events in or along the sealanes to distant lands It means Washington will be able to contemplate a gradual loosening of itsmilitary and political ties with the Middle Eastern oil states that have dominated its foreignpolicy for so long and have led to those costly devastating warsIndeed as President Obama said in Canberra the US is now in a position to begin to refocus its
military capabilities elsewhere After a decade in whichwe fought two wars that cost us dearly he declared theUnited States is turning our attention to the vast potentialof the Asia-Pacific region
For China all this spells potential strategic impairmentAlthough some of Chinas imported oil will traveloverland through pipelines from Kazakhstan and Russiathe great majority of it will still come by tanker from theMiddle East Africa and Latin America over sea lanespoliced by the US Navy Indeed almost every tankerbringing oil to China travels across the South China Seaa body of water the Obama administration is now seekingto place under effective naval control
By securing naval dominance of the South China Sea andadjacent waters the Obama administration evidently aimsto acquire the 21st century energy equivalent of 20thcentury nuclear blackmail Push us too far the policyimplies and well bring your economy to its knees by
blocking your flow of vital energy supplies
Of course nothing like this will ever be said in public but it is inconceivable that senioradministration officials are not thinking along just these lines and there is ample evidence thatthe Chinese are deeply worried about the risk - as indicated for example by their frantic effortsto build staggeringly expensive pipelines across the entire expanse of Asia to the Caspian Sea basin
As the underlying nature of the new Obama strategic blueprint becomes clearer there can be noquestion that the Chinese leadership will in response take steps to ensure the safety of Chinasenergy lifelines Some of these moves will undoubtedly be economic and diplomatic includingfor example efforts to court regional players like Vietnam and Indonesia as well as major oilsuppliers like Angola Nigeria and Saudi Arabia Make no mistake however others will be of amilitary nature
A significant buildup of the Chinese navy - still small andbackward when compared to the fleets of the United States andits principal allies - would seem all but inevitable Likewisecloser military ties between China and Russia as well as withthe Central Asian member states of the Shanghai CooperationOrganization (Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan andUzbekistan) are assured
In addition Washington could now be sparking the beginningsof a genuine Cold-War-style arms race in Asia which neithercountry can in the long run afford All of this is likely to leadto greater tension and a heightened risk of inadvertentescalation arising out of future incidents involving US Chinese
and allied vessels - such as the one that occurred in March 2009 when a flotilla of Chinese navalvessels surrounded a US anti-submarine warfare surveillance ship the Impeccable and almostprecipitated a shooting incident As more warships circulate through these waters in anincreasingly provocative fashion the risk that such an incident will result in something far moreexplosive can only grow
Greater reliance on the dirtiest of energies will result in increased greenhouse gasemissions and a multitude of other environmental hazards
Nor will the potential risks and costs of such a military-first policy aimed at China be restrictedto Asia In the drive to promote greater US self-sufficiency in energy output the Obamaadministration is giving its approval to production techniques - Arctic drilling deep-offshoredrilling and hydraulic fracturing - that are guaranteed to lead to further Deepwater Horizon-styleenvironmental catastrophe at home
Greater reliance on Canadian tar sands thedirtiest of energies will result in increasedgreenhouse gas emissions and a multitude ofother environmental hazards while deepAtlantic oil production off the Brazilian coastand elsewhere has its own set of grim dangers
All of this ensures that environmentallymilitarily and economically we will findourselves in a more not less perilous worldThe desire to turn away from disastrous landwars in the Greater Middle East to deal with keyissues now simmering in Asia is understandablebut choosing a strategy that puts such an emphasis on military dominance and provocation isbound to provoke a response in kind It is hardly a prudent path to head down nor will it in thelong run advance Americas interests at a time when global economic cooperation is crucialSacrificing the environment to achieve greater energy independence makes no more sense
A new Cold War in Asia and a hemispheric energy policy that could endanger the planet its afatal brew that should be reconsidered before the slide toward confrontation and environmentaldisaster becomes irreversible You dont have to be a seer to know that this is not the definition ofgood statesmanship but of the march of folly
Michael Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and theauthor most recently of Rising Powers Shrinking Planet
A version of this article was first published on Tom Dispatch
The views expressed in this article are the authors own and do not necessarily reflect AlJazeeras editorial policy
Barack Obamarsquos big government vacation thepresident adds nearly $4 million to the nationaldebt with his lavish Hawaiian holiday By
1 Nile Gardiner
December 19th 2011
Around $4 million (pound26 million) ndash theexpected total cost to the US taxpayer of theObama Christmas family vacation to Hawaii
1 according to the Hawaii Reporter (hattip Rob Bluey at The Foundry) This is anastonishing amount of public money to bespending in an age of austerity ndash when thepresident is supposed to be leading efforts tocut the US budget deficit the largest sinceWorld War Two and a towering $15 trillionnational debt
Hawaii Reporter research shows the totalcost for the Presidentrsquos visit for taxpayersfar exceeded $15 million in 2010 ndash but iseven more costly this year because heextended his vacation by three days andthe cost for Air Force One travel has jumped since last assessed in 2000 In additionHawaii Reporter was able to obtain more specifics about the executive expenditures
The total cost (based on what is known) for the 17-day vacation roundtrip vacation toHawaii for the President his family and staff has climbed to more than $4 million
This $4 million figure is nearly 100 times the average annual salary of an American workerwhich currently stands at $41673 The HawaiiReporter calculates that travel costs alone for thepresident and his entourage via Air Force One (plus aseparate trip for Michelle Obama who has traveled inadvance) in addition to a United States Air Force C-17 cargo aircraft to transport the presidential limoshelicopters and other support equipment amounts toa whopping $3629622 Housing for security staffcosts an estimated $151200 and luxurious hotelrooms for the presidentrsquos 24-strong staff a further$72216 Based on these figures the total cost to the
federal US taxpayer (and the additionalburden on the national debt) is a staggering$3853038 If you add in local taxpayercosts of $260000 (including police overtimeand city ambulances) the total publicexpense is $4113038
The story has of course been ignored by theliberal-dominated mainstream media whichinevitably turns a blind eye to abuses ofpower by the Obama presidency You canimagine the outrage that would have greetedGeorge W Bush if had tried this kind of stuntduring his time in office He would probablyhave been burned at the stake on the pages of
The New York Times and endlessly condemned on network television
Like the vast majority of Americans Barack Obama should be prepared to make sacrifices notleast when hersquos spending other peoplersquos money Is it too much to ask the president to vacation atCamp David in Maryland instead of flying nearly 5000 miles to Hawaii Once again he isdisplaying a let-them-eat-cake attitude at a time of mass unemployment stagnant housingmarkets and growing poverty
For President Obama even his vacations have become a vulgar symbol of big government excessand over-spending ndash letrsquos also not forget hisgrand summer holiday at MartharsquosVineyard While tens of millions of Americansstruggle this Christmas to pay the mortgage andput food on the table for their families theleader of the free world will be enjoying afortnight of luxury ndash heavily subsidised at theirexpense It is a further demonstration of an out-of-touch
presidency with an entitlement mentality onethat treats American taxpayers as a money-printing machine It is little wonder that over 70per cent of Americans believe their country ismoving down the wrong track (
1 according to RealClear Politics) presided over by a liberal elite that runs up mountains ofdebt for future generations to bear
Speculation drives up food prices as bankersgamble on hunger
1 Frederick Kaufman
Tuesday 20 December 2011
Bankers hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds are gambling on hunger by speculatingon food supply Global regulators should step in to stop them
High-frequency traders and momentum-driven hedge funds made it their business to speculate onfood in 2011 Photograph Tim WimborneReuters
Last year the price of global food floated high as ever Thats bad news for most of us but not forthose who trade commodities In fact 2011 was a great year for the traders who thrive on badnews currency woes drought flood freeze fire and all other manifestations of imminentapocalypse
2011 was a wild ride One spring morning cocoa futures dropped 12 in less than a minuteCorn ascended to all-time peaks and sugar fluctuated more in one day than it used to in a monthHoward Schultz CEO of Starbucks railed against speculators in coffee while PepsiCo forecastits own medium-term commodity cost increases to exceed $1bn All of which meant a bumpercrop for the worlds commodity exchanges ndash even those that used to be backwaters like theKansas City Board of Trade and the Minneapolis Grain Exchange both of which recorded theirhighest electronic trading volumes in history
It was a volatile year and the volatility posed problems for the food industry Faced with a high-stakes game of price-shifting basic ingredients the worlds largest food processors and retailersput out the call for maths PhDs and economic modellers to theorise and implement ever-more
complex risk-management strategiesjust so they could keep up with thesecond-by-second spikes and dips ofgrain and livestock futures In themeantime high-frequency tradersand momentum-driven hedge fundsmade it their business to speculate onfood There were plenty of ways toget in on the action but as anincreasingly complex amalgam offood-based commodity derivativespiled one on top of the other themore difficult it became to perceive what it was that lay at the bottom of the speculative scrumWhat drove the global food market in 2011 ndash other than those old faithfuls fear and greed I putin a call to Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam of the New England Complex Systems Institute (Necsi)to see if he might have an answer
Necsi based in Cambridge draws on fields as various as maths physics and computer science toprovide new perspectives on ndash and perhaps even solve ndash pressing problems in economicshealthcare international development and military and ethnic violence Last year Bar-Yam andhis colleagues published a paper called The Food Crises A Quantitative Model of FoodPrices Including Speculators and Ethanol Conversion in which the Necsi crewmathematically isolated and quantified the effects of speculation as a driving force behind thebull market in global food derivatives
Prices have been way out of equilibrium in 2011 Bar-Yam told me The bubble has not burstyet
According to Bar-Yam the international thirst for biofuels has put a strain on arable landpreviously reserved for food production At the same time as the rise of the biofuel mandate therise of investable commodity indexes and other electronically traded funds has offered investorsof all stripes a chance to sink their cash in a sparkling new casino of derivative products As a
result an ever-flowing spring ofspeculative capital sustains the status quo
But just as food is no ordinary widgetspeculation in commodity markets is notsimply a matter of financial predation Thehigh prices of food have resulted inaccumulations of inventories at the sametime as people cant afford food said Bar-Yam who noted that the Arab spring wastriggered by the food-price bubble In factNecsis quantitative model of speculationpredicted the uprisings in Tunisia Libyaand Egypt and warned that if food prices
remain inflated riots and revolutionswill go global sometime between July2012 and August 2013
We are at a critical point said Bar-Yam We dont have a stay-the-course option right now
He believes the time has come forglobal regulators to step in andmanage the global market Their firsttask would be to guaranteetransparency and make publicinformation previously shrouded insecrecy ndash such as who holds the biggest stakes in global commodities Transparent accounting
practices would have made the disappearanceof $12bn worth of customer money fromthe books of MF Global less a matter ofsleight of hand and more a matter ofinternational crime
The second part of the speculation solutionhinges on a return to traditional positionlimits in commodities limits enforced byinternational laws geared to stop bankershedge funds and sovereign wealth funds fromgoing long on the worlds food supply and ineffect gambling on hunger
Nothing influences financial regulators likeequations so the reforms we can look
forward to in 2012 will ultimately depend on the numbers Which is a mixed blessing Onereason people dont want to understand the math is the deafness of those who are making themoney said Bar-Yam But the old mathematics is manifestly wrong
term and no more Rotate theelections so all members senatorsand House members have fouryear terms Replace 25 eachyear American can no longerafford waiting six years to replace asenate whore who sells his vote tocorporations American cannotallow an entire house to exist for afull two years before thelegislators who manifest aswhores or idiots are replaced Sowe also need recall processes at afederal level
Congress is profoundly broken The people in it cannot fixthe problem they are creating
There are a few brave souls in congress who haveattempted to retain the powers they were givenndash SandersKucinich Paul But I say that we-the-people must takewhatever steps are necessary to end the current life careersystem that congressional jobs are based on It willprobably take a revolution of some sort to do it Letrsquos hopeitrsquos more like what happened in Tunisia The non-violentOccupy Movement could do it Wersquoll see But therersquos nodoubt in my mind that America needs big changes muchbigger than the gutless corporate sell-outs in congress arewilling or able to do
Playing with fire Obamas threat toChina1 Michael Klare
Dec 10 2011
When it comes to China policy is the Obama administration leaping from the frying pan directlyinto the fire In an attempt to turn the page on two disastrous wars in the greater Middle East itmay have just launched a new Cold War in Asia - once again viewing oil as the key to global supremacy
The new policy was signalled by President Obama himself on November 17 in an
1 address to the Australian Parliament in which he laid out an audacious - and extremelydangerous - geopolitical vision Instead of focusing on the greater Middle East as has been thecase for the last decade the United States will now concentrate its power in Asia and the Pacific
My guidance is clear he declared in Canberra As we plan and budget for the future we will
allocate the resources necessary to maintainour strong military presence in this region
While administration officials insist that thisnew policy is not aimed specifically at Chinathe implication is clear enough from now onthe primary focus of US military strategy willnot be counterterrorism but the containmentof that economically booming land - atwhatever risk or cost
The planets new centre of gravity
The new emphasis on Asia and thecontainment of China is necessary top officials insist because the Asia-Pacific region nowconstitutes the centre of gravity of world economic activity While the United States wasbogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan the argument goes China had the leeway to expand itsinfluence in the region
For the first time since the end of World War II Washington is no longer the dominant economicactor there If the United States is to retain its title as the worlds paramount power it must thisthinking goes restore its primacy in the region and roll back Chinese influence In the comingdecades no foreign policy task will it is claimed be more important than this
In line with its new strategy the administration has undertaken a number of moves intended tobolster US power in Asia and so put China on the defensive These include a decision to deployan initial 250 US Marines - someday to be upped to 2500 - to an Australian air base in Darwinon that countrys north coast and the adoption on November 18 of the Manila Declaration apledge of closer US military ties with the Philippines
An economically weakened United States can no longer hope to prevail in multiple regionssimultaneously
At the same time the White House announced the sale of 24 F-16 fighter jets to Indonesia and avisit by Hillary Clinton to isolated Burma long a Chinese ally - the first there by a secretary ofstate in 56 years Clinton has also spoken of increased diplomatic and military ties withSingapore Thailand and Vietnam - all countries surrounding China or overlooking key traderoutes that China relies on for importing raw materials and exporting manufactured goods
As portrayed by administration officials such moves are intended to maximise Americasadvantages in the diplomatic and military realm at a time when China dominates the economicrealm regionally In a recent article in Foreign Policy magazine Clinton revealingly suggestedthat an economically weakened United States can no longer hope to prevail in multiple regionssimultaneously It must choose its battlefields carefully and deploy its limited assets - most ofthem of a military nature - to maximum advantage Given Asias strategic centrality to globalpower this means concentrating resources there
Over the last ten years she writeswe have allocated immense resourcesto [Iraq and Afghanistan] In the nextten years we need to be smart andsystematic about where we invest timeand energy so that we put ourselves inthe best position to sustain ourleadership [and] secure our interests One of the most important tasks ofAmerican statecraft over the nextdecade will therefore be to lock in asubstantially increased investment -diplomatic economic strategic andotherwise - in the Asia-Pacific region
Such thinking with its distinctly military focus appears dangerously provocative The stepsannounced entail an increased military presence in waters bordering China and enhanced militaryties with that countrys neighbours - moves certain to arouse alarm in Beijing and strengthen thehand of those in the ruling circle (especially in the Chinese military leadership) who favour amore activist militarised response to US incursions
Whatever forms that takes one thing is certain the leadership of the globes number twoeconomic power is not going to let itself appear weak and indecisive in the face of a US buildupon the periphery of its country This in turn means that we may be sowing the seeds of a newCold War in Asia in 2011
The US military buildup and the potential for a powerful Chinese counter-thrust have alreadybeen the subject of discussion in the American and Asian press But one crucial dimension of thisincipient struggle has received no attention at all the degree to which Washingtons suddenmoves have been dictated by a fresh analysis of the global energy equation revealing (as theObama administration sees it) increased vulnerabilities for the Chinese side and new advantages
for Washington
The new energy equation
For decades the United States has been heavilydependent on imported oil much of it obtained fromthe Middle East and Africa while China was largelyself-sufficient in oil output In 2001 the United Statesconsumed 196 million barrels of oil per day whileproducing only nine million barrels itself Thedependency on foreign suppliers for that 106 million-barrel shortfall proved a source of enormous concernfor Washington policymakers They responded byforging ever closer more militarised ties with MiddleEastern oil producers and going to war on occasion to
ensure the safety of US supply linesIn 2001 China onthe other hand consumed only five million barrels perday and so with a domestic output of 33 millionbarrels needed to import only 17 million barrels Thosecold hard numbers made its leadership far lessconcerned about the reliability of the countrys majoroverseas providers - and so it did not need to duplicatethe same sort of foreign policy entanglements thatWashington had long been involved inNow so the Obama administration has concluded thetables are beginning to turn As a result of Chinasbooming economy and the emergence of a sizeable andgrowing middle class (many of whom have already bought their first cars) the countrys oilconsumption is exploding Running at about 78 million barrels per day in 2008 it willaccording to recent projections by the US Department of Energy reach 136 million barrels in2020 and 169 million in 2035
Domestic oil production on the other hand is expected to grow from 40 million barrels per dayin 2008 to 53 million in 2035 Not surprisingly then Chinese imports are expected to skyrocketfrom 38 million barrels per day in 2008 to a projected 116 million in 2035 - at which time theywill exceed those of the United States
Thanks to increased production in tough oil areas of the United States future importsare expected to decline even as energy consumption rises
The US meanwhile can look forward to an improved energy situation Thanks to increasedproduction in tough oil areas of the United States including the Arctic seas off Alaska thedeep waters of the Gulf of Mexico and shale formations in Montana North Dakota and Texasfuture imports are expected to decline even as energy consumption rises
In addition more oil is likely to be available from the Western Hemisphere rather than theMiddle East or Africa Again this will be thanks to the exploitation of yet more tough oil areasincluding the Athabasca tar sands of Canada Brazilian oil fields in the deep Atlantic andincreasingly pacified energy-rich regions of previously war-torn Colombia According to theDepartment of Energy combined production in the United States Canada and Brazil is expectedto climb by 106 million barrels per day between 2009 and 2035 - an enormous jump consideringthat most areas of the world are expecting declining output
Whose sea lanes are these anywayFrom a geopolitical perspective all this seems to confer a genuine advantage on the UnitedStates even as China becomes ever more vulnerable to the vagaries of events in or along the sealanes to distant lands It means Washington will be able to contemplate a gradual loosening of itsmilitary and political ties with the Middle Eastern oil states that have dominated its foreignpolicy for so long and have led to those costly devastating warsIndeed as President Obama said in Canberra the US is now in a position to begin to refocus its
military capabilities elsewhere After a decade in whichwe fought two wars that cost us dearly he declared theUnited States is turning our attention to the vast potentialof the Asia-Pacific region
For China all this spells potential strategic impairmentAlthough some of Chinas imported oil will traveloverland through pipelines from Kazakhstan and Russiathe great majority of it will still come by tanker from theMiddle East Africa and Latin America over sea lanespoliced by the US Navy Indeed almost every tankerbringing oil to China travels across the South China Seaa body of water the Obama administration is now seekingto place under effective naval control
By securing naval dominance of the South China Sea andadjacent waters the Obama administration evidently aimsto acquire the 21st century energy equivalent of 20thcentury nuclear blackmail Push us too far the policyimplies and well bring your economy to its knees by
blocking your flow of vital energy supplies
Of course nothing like this will ever be said in public but it is inconceivable that senioradministration officials are not thinking along just these lines and there is ample evidence thatthe Chinese are deeply worried about the risk - as indicated for example by their frantic effortsto build staggeringly expensive pipelines across the entire expanse of Asia to the Caspian Sea basin
As the underlying nature of the new Obama strategic blueprint becomes clearer there can be noquestion that the Chinese leadership will in response take steps to ensure the safety of Chinasenergy lifelines Some of these moves will undoubtedly be economic and diplomatic includingfor example efforts to court regional players like Vietnam and Indonesia as well as major oilsuppliers like Angola Nigeria and Saudi Arabia Make no mistake however others will be of amilitary nature
A significant buildup of the Chinese navy - still small andbackward when compared to the fleets of the United States andits principal allies - would seem all but inevitable Likewisecloser military ties between China and Russia as well as withthe Central Asian member states of the Shanghai CooperationOrganization (Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan andUzbekistan) are assured
In addition Washington could now be sparking the beginningsof a genuine Cold-War-style arms race in Asia which neithercountry can in the long run afford All of this is likely to leadto greater tension and a heightened risk of inadvertentescalation arising out of future incidents involving US Chinese
and allied vessels - such as the one that occurred in March 2009 when a flotilla of Chinese navalvessels surrounded a US anti-submarine warfare surveillance ship the Impeccable and almostprecipitated a shooting incident As more warships circulate through these waters in anincreasingly provocative fashion the risk that such an incident will result in something far moreexplosive can only grow
Greater reliance on the dirtiest of energies will result in increased greenhouse gasemissions and a multitude of other environmental hazards
Nor will the potential risks and costs of such a military-first policy aimed at China be restrictedto Asia In the drive to promote greater US self-sufficiency in energy output the Obamaadministration is giving its approval to production techniques - Arctic drilling deep-offshoredrilling and hydraulic fracturing - that are guaranteed to lead to further Deepwater Horizon-styleenvironmental catastrophe at home
Greater reliance on Canadian tar sands thedirtiest of energies will result in increasedgreenhouse gas emissions and a multitude ofother environmental hazards while deepAtlantic oil production off the Brazilian coastand elsewhere has its own set of grim dangers
All of this ensures that environmentallymilitarily and economically we will findourselves in a more not less perilous worldThe desire to turn away from disastrous landwars in the Greater Middle East to deal with keyissues now simmering in Asia is understandablebut choosing a strategy that puts such an emphasis on military dominance and provocation isbound to provoke a response in kind It is hardly a prudent path to head down nor will it in thelong run advance Americas interests at a time when global economic cooperation is crucialSacrificing the environment to achieve greater energy independence makes no more sense
A new Cold War in Asia and a hemispheric energy policy that could endanger the planet its afatal brew that should be reconsidered before the slide toward confrontation and environmentaldisaster becomes irreversible You dont have to be a seer to know that this is not the definition ofgood statesmanship but of the march of folly
Michael Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and theauthor most recently of Rising Powers Shrinking Planet
A version of this article was first published on Tom Dispatch
The views expressed in this article are the authors own and do not necessarily reflect AlJazeeras editorial policy
Barack Obamarsquos big government vacation thepresident adds nearly $4 million to the nationaldebt with his lavish Hawaiian holiday By
1 Nile Gardiner
December 19th 2011
Around $4 million (pound26 million) ndash theexpected total cost to the US taxpayer of theObama Christmas family vacation to Hawaii
1 according to the Hawaii Reporter (hattip Rob Bluey at The Foundry) This is anastonishing amount of public money to bespending in an age of austerity ndash when thepresident is supposed to be leading efforts tocut the US budget deficit the largest sinceWorld War Two and a towering $15 trillionnational debt
Hawaii Reporter research shows the totalcost for the Presidentrsquos visit for taxpayersfar exceeded $15 million in 2010 ndash but iseven more costly this year because heextended his vacation by three days andthe cost for Air Force One travel has jumped since last assessed in 2000 In additionHawaii Reporter was able to obtain more specifics about the executive expenditures
The total cost (based on what is known) for the 17-day vacation roundtrip vacation toHawaii for the President his family and staff has climbed to more than $4 million
This $4 million figure is nearly 100 times the average annual salary of an American workerwhich currently stands at $41673 The HawaiiReporter calculates that travel costs alone for thepresident and his entourage via Air Force One (plus aseparate trip for Michelle Obama who has traveled inadvance) in addition to a United States Air Force C-17 cargo aircraft to transport the presidential limoshelicopters and other support equipment amounts toa whopping $3629622 Housing for security staffcosts an estimated $151200 and luxurious hotelrooms for the presidentrsquos 24-strong staff a further$72216 Based on these figures the total cost to the
federal US taxpayer (and the additionalburden on the national debt) is a staggering$3853038 If you add in local taxpayercosts of $260000 (including police overtimeand city ambulances) the total publicexpense is $4113038
The story has of course been ignored by theliberal-dominated mainstream media whichinevitably turns a blind eye to abuses ofpower by the Obama presidency You canimagine the outrage that would have greetedGeorge W Bush if had tried this kind of stuntduring his time in office He would probablyhave been burned at the stake on the pages of
The New York Times and endlessly condemned on network television
Like the vast majority of Americans Barack Obama should be prepared to make sacrifices notleast when hersquos spending other peoplersquos money Is it too much to ask the president to vacation atCamp David in Maryland instead of flying nearly 5000 miles to Hawaii Once again he isdisplaying a let-them-eat-cake attitude at a time of mass unemployment stagnant housingmarkets and growing poverty
For President Obama even his vacations have become a vulgar symbol of big government excessand over-spending ndash letrsquos also not forget hisgrand summer holiday at MartharsquosVineyard While tens of millions of Americansstruggle this Christmas to pay the mortgage andput food on the table for their families theleader of the free world will be enjoying afortnight of luxury ndash heavily subsidised at theirexpense It is a further demonstration of an out-of-touch
presidency with an entitlement mentality onethat treats American taxpayers as a money-printing machine It is little wonder that over 70per cent of Americans believe their country ismoving down the wrong track (
1 according to RealClear Politics) presided over by a liberal elite that runs up mountains ofdebt for future generations to bear
Speculation drives up food prices as bankersgamble on hunger
1 Frederick Kaufman
Tuesday 20 December 2011
Bankers hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds are gambling on hunger by speculatingon food supply Global regulators should step in to stop them
High-frequency traders and momentum-driven hedge funds made it their business to speculate onfood in 2011 Photograph Tim WimborneReuters
Last year the price of global food floated high as ever Thats bad news for most of us but not forthose who trade commodities In fact 2011 was a great year for the traders who thrive on badnews currency woes drought flood freeze fire and all other manifestations of imminentapocalypse
2011 was a wild ride One spring morning cocoa futures dropped 12 in less than a minuteCorn ascended to all-time peaks and sugar fluctuated more in one day than it used to in a monthHoward Schultz CEO of Starbucks railed against speculators in coffee while PepsiCo forecastits own medium-term commodity cost increases to exceed $1bn All of which meant a bumpercrop for the worlds commodity exchanges ndash even those that used to be backwaters like theKansas City Board of Trade and the Minneapolis Grain Exchange both of which recorded theirhighest electronic trading volumes in history
It was a volatile year and the volatility posed problems for the food industry Faced with a high-stakes game of price-shifting basic ingredients the worlds largest food processors and retailersput out the call for maths PhDs and economic modellers to theorise and implement ever-more
complex risk-management strategiesjust so they could keep up with thesecond-by-second spikes and dips ofgrain and livestock futures In themeantime high-frequency tradersand momentum-driven hedge fundsmade it their business to speculate onfood There were plenty of ways toget in on the action but as anincreasingly complex amalgam offood-based commodity derivativespiled one on top of the other themore difficult it became to perceive what it was that lay at the bottom of the speculative scrumWhat drove the global food market in 2011 ndash other than those old faithfuls fear and greed I putin a call to Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam of the New England Complex Systems Institute (Necsi)to see if he might have an answer
Necsi based in Cambridge draws on fields as various as maths physics and computer science toprovide new perspectives on ndash and perhaps even solve ndash pressing problems in economicshealthcare international development and military and ethnic violence Last year Bar-Yam andhis colleagues published a paper called The Food Crises A Quantitative Model of FoodPrices Including Speculators and Ethanol Conversion in which the Necsi crewmathematically isolated and quantified the effects of speculation as a driving force behind thebull market in global food derivatives
Prices have been way out of equilibrium in 2011 Bar-Yam told me The bubble has not burstyet
According to Bar-Yam the international thirst for biofuels has put a strain on arable landpreviously reserved for food production At the same time as the rise of the biofuel mandate therise of investable commodity indexes and other electronically traded funds has offered investorsof all stripes a chance to sink their cash in a sparkling new casino of derivative products As a
result an ever-flowing spring ofspeculative capital sustains the status quo
But just as food is no ordinary widgetspeculation in commodity markets is notsimply a matter of financial predation Thehigh prices of food have resulted inaccumulations of inventories at the sametime as people cant afford food said Bar-Yam who noted that the Arab spring wastriggered by the food-price bubble In factNecsis quantitative model of speculationpredicted the uprisings in Tunisia Libyaand Egypt and warned that if food prices
remain inflated riots and revolutionswill go global sometime between July2012 and August 2013
We are at a critical point said Bar-Yam We dont have a stay-the-course option right now
He believes the time has come forglobal regulators to step in andmanage the global market Their firsttask would be to guaranteetransparency and make publicinformation previously shrouded insecrecy ndash such as who holds the biggest stakes in global commodities Transparent accounting
practices would have made the disappearanceof $12bn worth of customer money fromthe books of MF Global less a matter ofsleight of hand and more a matter ofinternational crime
The second part of the speculation solutionhinges on a return to traditional positionlimits in commodities limits enforced byinternational laws geared to stop bankershedge funds and sovereign wealth funds fromgoing long on the worlds food supply and ineffect gambling on hunger
Nothing influences financial regulators likeequations so the reforms we can look
forward to in 2012 will ultimately depend on the numbers Which is a mixed blessing Onereason people dont want to understand the math is the deafness of those who are making themoney said Bar-Yam But the old mathematics is manifestly wrong
Playing with fire Obamas threat toChina1 Michael Klare
Dec 10 2011
When it comes to China policy is the Obama administration leaping from the frying pan directlyinto the fire In an attempt to turn the page on two disastrous wars in the greater Middle East itmay have just launched a new Cold War in Asia - once again viewing oil as the key to global supremacy
The new policy was signalled by President Obama himself on November 17 in an
1 address to the Australian Parliament in which he laid out an audacious - and extremelydangerous - geopolitical vision Instead of focusing on the greater Middle East as has been thecase for the last decade the United States will now concentrate its power in Asia and the Pacific
My guidance is clear he declared in Canberra As we plan and budget for the future we will
allocate the resources necessary to maintainour strong military presence in this region
While administration officials insist that thisnew policy is not aimed specifically at Chinathe implication is clear enough from now onthe primary focus of US military strategy willnot be counterterrorism but the containmentof that economically booming land - atwhatever risk or cost
The planets new centre of gravity
The new emphasis on Asia and thecontainment of China is necessary top officials insist because the Asia-Pacific region nowconstitutes the centre of gravity of world economic activity While the United States wasbogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan the argument goes China had the leeway to expand itsinfluence in the region
For the first time since the end of World War II Washington is no longer the dominant economicactor there If the United States is to retain its title as the worlds paramount power it must thisthinking goes restore its primacy in the region and roll back Chinese influence In the comingdecades no foreign policy task will it is claimed be more important than this
In line with its new strategy the administration has undertaken a number of moves intended tobolster US power in Asia and so put China on the defensive These include a decision to deployan initial 250 US Marines - someday to be upped to 2500 - to an Australian air base in Darwinon that countrys north coast and the adoption on November 18 of the Manila Declaration apledge of closer US military ties with the Philippines
An economically weakened United States can no longer hope to prevail in multiple regionssimultaneously
At the same time the White House announced the sale of 24 F-16 fighter jets to Indonesia and avisit by Hillary Clinton to isolated Burma long a Chinese ally - the first there by a secretary ofstate in 56 years Clinton has also spoken of increased diplomatic and military ties withSingapore Thailand and Vietnam - all countries surrounding China or overlooking key traderoutes that China relies on for importing raw materials and exporting manufactured goods
As portrayed by administration officials such moves are intended to maximise Americasadvantages in the diplomatic and military realm at a time when China dominates the economicrealm regionally In a recent article in Foreign Policy magazine Clinton revealingly suggestedthat an economically weakened United States can no longer hope to prevail in multiple regionssimultaneously It must choose its battlefields carefully and deploy its limited assets - most ofthem of a military nature - to maximum advantage Given Asias strategic centrality to globalpower this means concentrating resources there
Over the last ten years she writeswe have allocated immense resourcesto [Iraq and Afghanistan] In the nextten years we need to be smart andsystematic about where we invest timeand energy so that we put ourselves inthe best position to sustain ourleadership [and] secure our interests One of the most important tasks ofAmerican statecraft over the nextdecade will therefore be to lock in asubstantially increased investment -diplomatic economic strategic andotherwise - in the Asia-Pacific region
Such thinking with its distinctly military focus appears dangerously provocative The stepsannounced entail an increased military presence in waters bordering China and enhanced militaryties with that countrys neighbours - moves certain to arouse alarm in Beijing and strengthen thehand of those in the ruling circle (especially in the Chinese military leadership) who favour amore activist militarised response to US incursions
Whatever forms that takes one thing is certain the leadership of the globes number twoeconomic power is not going to let itself appear weak and indecisive in the face of a US buildupon the periphery of its country This in turn means that we may be sowing the seeds of a newCold War in Asia in 2011
The US military buildup and the potential for a powerful Chinese counter-thrust have alreadybeen the subject of discussion in the American and Asian press But one crucial dimension of thisincipient struggle has received no attention at all the degree to which Washingtons suddenmoves have been dictated by a fresh analysis of the global energy equation revealing (as theObama administration sees it) increased vulnerabilities for the Chinese side and new advantages
for Washington
The new energy equation
For decades the United States has been heavilydependent on imported oil much of it obtained fromthe Middle East and Africa while China was largelyself-sufficient in oil output In 2001 the United Statesconsumed 196 million barrels of oil per day whileproducing only nine million barrels itself Thedependency on foreign suppliers for that 106 million-barrel shortfall proved a source of enormous concernfor Washington policymakers They responded byforging ever closer more militarised ties with MiddleEastern oil producers and going to war on occasion to
ensure the safety of US supply linesIn 2001 China onthe other hand consumed only five million barrels perday and so with a domestic output of 33 millionbarrels needed to import only 17 million barrels Thosecold hard numbers made its leadership far lessconcerned about the reliability of the countrys majoroverseas providers - and so it did not need to duplicatethe same sort of foreign policy entanglements thatWashington had long been involved inNow so the Obama administration has concluded thetables are beginning to turn As a result of Chinasbooming economy and the emergence of a sizeable andgrowing middle class (many of whom have already bought their first cars) the countrys oilconsumption is exploding Running at about 78 million barrels per day in 2008 it willaccording to recent projections by the US Department of Energy reach 136 million barrels in2020 and 169 million in 2035
Domestic oil production on the other hand is expected to grow from 40 million barrels per dayin 2008 to 53 million in 2035 Not surprisingly then Chinese imports are expected to skyrocketfrom 38 million barrels per day in 2008 to a projected 116 million in 2035 - at which time theywill exceed those of the United States
Thanks to increased production in tough oil areas of the United States future importsare expected to decline even as energy consumption rises
The US meanwhile can look forward to an improved energy situation Thanks to increasedproduction in tough oil areas of the United States including the Arctic seas off Alaska thedeep waters of the Gulf of Mexico and shale formations in Montana North Dakota and Texasfuture imports are expected to decline even as energy consumption rises
In addition more oil is likely to be available from the Western Hemisphere rather than theMiddle East or Africa Again this will be thanks to the exploitation of yet more tough oil areasincluding the Athabasca tar sands of Canada Brazilian oil fields in the deep Atlantic andincreasingly pacified energy-rich regions of previously war-torn Colombia According to theDepartment of Energy combined production in the United States Canada and Brazil is expectedto climb by 106 million barrels per day between 2009 and 2035 - an enormous jump consideringthat most areas of the world are expecting declining output
Whose sea lanes are these anywayFrom a geopolitical perspective all this seems to confer a genuine advantage on the UnitedStates even as China becomes ever more vulnerable to the vagaries of events in or along the sealanes to distant lands It means Washington will be able to contemplate a gradual loosening of itsmilitary and political ties with the Middle Eastern oil states that have dominated its foreignpolicy for so long and have led to those costly devastating warsIndeed as President Obama said in Canberra the US is now in a position to begin to refocus its
military capabilities elsewhere After a decade in whichwe fought two wars that cost us dearly he declared theUnited States is turning our attention to the vast potentialof the Asia-Pacific region
For China all this spells potential strategic impairmentAlthough some of Chinas imported oil will traveloverland through pipelines from Kazakhstan and Russiathe great majority of it will still come by tanker from theMiddle East Africa and Latin America over sea lanespoliced by the US Navy Indeed almost every tankerbringing oil to China travels across the South China Seaa body of water the Obama administration is now seekingto place under effective naval control
By securing naval dominance of the South China Sea andadjacent waters the Obama administration evidently aimsto acquire the 21st century energy equivalent of 20thcentury nuclear blackmail Push us too far the policyimplies and well bring your economy to its knees by
blocking your flow of vital energy supplies
Of course nothing like this will ever be said in public but it is inconceivable that senioradministration officials are not thinking along just these lines and there is ample evidence thatthe Chinese are deeply worried about the risk - as indicated for example by their frantic effortsto build staggeringly expensive pipelines across the entire expanse of Asia to the Caspian Sea basin
As the underlying nature of the new Obama strategic blueprint becomes clearer there can be noquestion that the Chinese leadership will in response take steps to ensure the safety of Chinasenergy lifelines Some of these moves will undoubtedly be economic and diplomatic includingfor example efforts to court regional players like Vietnam and Indonesia as well as major oilsuppliers like Angola Nigeria and Saudi Arabia Make no mistake however others will be of amilitary nature
A significant buildup of the Chinese navy - still small andbackward when compared to the fleets of the United States andits principal allies - would seem all but inevitable Likewisecloser military ties between China and Russia as well as withthe Central Asian member states of the Shanghai CooperationOrganization (Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan andUzbekistan) are assured
In addition Washington could now be sparking the beginningsof a genuine Cold-War-style arms race in Asia which neithercountry can in the long run afford All of this is likely to leadto greater tension and a heightened risk of inadvertentescalation arising out of future incidents involving US Chinese
and allied vessels - such as the one that occurred in March 2009 when a flotilla of Chinese navalvessels surrounded a US anti-submarine warfare surveillance ship the Impeccable and almostprecipitated a shooting incident As more warships circulate through these waters in anincreasingly provocative fashion the risk that such an incident will result in something far moreexplosive can only grow
Greater reliance on the dirtiest of energies will result in increased greenhouse gasemissions and a multitude of other environmental hazards
Nor will the potential risks and costs of such a military-first policy aimed at China be restrictedto Asia In the drive to promote greater US self-sufficiency in energy output the Obamaadministration is giving its approval to production techniques - Arctic drilling deep-offshoredrilling and hydraulic fracturing - that are guaranteed to lead to further Deepwater Horizon-styleenvironmental catastrophe at home
Greater reliance on Canadian tar sands thedirtiest of energies will result in increasedgreenhouse gas emissions and a multitude ofother environmental hazards while deepAtlantic oil production off the Brazilian coastand elsewhere has its own set of grim dangers
All of this ensures that environmentallymilitarily and economically we will findourselves in a more not less perilous worldThe desire to turn away from disastrous landwars in the Greater Middle East to deal with keyissues now simmering in Asia is understandablebut choosing a strategy that puts such an emphasis on military dominance and provocation isbound to provoke a response in kind It is hardly a prudent path to head down nor will it in thelong run advance Americas interests at a time when global economic cooperation is crucialSacrificing the environment to achieve greater energy independence makes no more sense
A new Cold War in Asia and a hemispheric energy policy that could endanger the planet its afatal brew that should be reconsidered before the slide toward confrontation and environmentaldisaster becomes irreversible You dont have to be a seer to know that this is not the definition ofgood statesmanship but of the march of folly
Michael Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and theauthor most recently of Rising Powers Shrinking Planet
A version of this article was first published on Tom Dispatch
The views expressed in this article are the authors own and do not necessarily reflect AlJazeeras editorial policy
Barack Obamarsquos big government vacation thepresident adds nearly $4 million to the nationaldebt with his lavish Hawaiian holiday By
1 Nile Gardiner
December 19th 2011
Around $4 million (pound26 million) ndash theexpected total cost to the US taxpayer of theObama Christmas family vacation to Hawaii
1 according to the Hawaii Reporter (hattip Rob Bluey at The Foundry) This is anastonishing amount of public money to bespending in an age of austerity ndash when thepresident is supposed to be leading efforts tocut the US budget deficit the largest sinceWorld War Two and a towering $15 trillionnational debt
Hawaii Reporter research shows the totalcost for the Presidentrsquos visit for taxpayersfar exceeded $15 million in 2010 ndash but iseven more costly this year because heextended his vacation by three days andthe cost for Air Force One travel has jumped since last assessed in 2000 In additionHawaii Reporter was able to obtain more specifics about the executive expenditures
The total cost (based on what is known) for the 17-day vacation roundtrip vacation toHawaii for the President his family and staff has climbed to more than $4 million
This $4 million figure is nearly 100 times the average annual salary of an American workerwhich currently stands at $41673 The HawaiiReporter calculates that travel costs alone for thepresident and his entourage via Air Force One (plus aseparate trip for Michelle Obama who has traveled inadvance) in addition to a United States Air Force C-17 cargo aircraft to transport the presidential limoshelicopters and other support equipment amounts toa whopping $3629622 Housing for security staffcosts an estimated $151200 and luxurious hotelrooms for the presidentrsquos 24-strong staff a further$72216 Based on these figures the total cost to the
federal US taxpayer (and the additionalburden on the national debt) is a staggering$3853038 If you add in local taxpayercosts of $260000 (including police overtimeand city ambulances) the total publicexpense is $4113038
The story has of course been ignored by theliberal-dominated mainstream media whichinevitably turns a blind eye to abuses ofpower by the Obama presidency You canimagine the outrage that would have greetedGeorge W Bush if had tried this kind of stuntduring his time in office He would probablyhave been burned at the stake on the pages of
The New York Times and endlessly condemned on network television
Like the vast majority of Americans Barack Obama should be prepared to make sacrifices notleast when hersquos spending other peoplersquos money Is it too much to ask the president to vacation atCamp David in Maryland instead of flying nearly 5000 miles to Hawaii Once again he isdisplaying a let-them-eat-cake attitude at a time of mass unemployment stagnant housingmarkets and growing poverty
For President Obama even his vacations have become a vulgar symbol of big government excessand over-spending ndash letrsquos also not forget hisgrand summer holiday at MartharsquosVineyard While tens of millions of Americansstruggle this Christmas to pay the mortgage andput food on the table for their families theleader of the free world will be enjoying afortnight of luxury ndash heavily subsidised at theirexpense It is a further demonstration of an out-of-touch
presidency with an entitlement mentality onethat treats American taxpayers as a money-printing machine It is little wonder that over 70per cent of Americans believe their country ismoving down the wrong track (
1 according to RealClear Politics) presided over by a liberal elite that runs up mountains ofdebt for future generations to bear
Speculation drives up food prices as bankersgamble on hunger
1 Frederick Kaufman
Tuesday 20 December 2011
Bankers hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds are gambling on hunger by speculatingon food supply Global regulators should step in to stop them
High-frequency traders and momentum-driven hedge funds made it their business to speculate onfood in 2011 Photograph Tim WimborneReuters
Last year the price of global food floated high as ever Thats bad news for most of us but not forthose who trade commodities In fact 2011 was a great year for the traders who thrive on badnews currency woes drought flood freeze fire and all other manifestations of imminentapocalypse
2011 was a wild ride One spring morning cocoa futures dropped 12 in less than a minuteCorn ascended to all-time peaks and sugar fluctuated more in one day than it used to in a monthHoward Schultz CEO of Starbucks railed against speculators in coffee while PepsiCo forecastits own medium-term commodity cost increases to exceed $1bn All of which meant a bumpercrop for the worlds commodity exchanges ndash even those that used to be backwaters like theKansas City Board of Trade and the Minneapolis Grain Exchange both of which recorded theirhighest electronic trading volumes in history
It was a volatile year and the volatility posed problems for the food industry Faced with a high-stakes game of price-shifting basic ingredients the worlds largest food processors and retailersput out the call for maths PhDs and economic modellers to theorise and implement ever-more
complex risk-management strategiesjust so they could keep up with thesecond-by-second spikes and dips ofgrain and livestock futures In themeantime high-frequency tradersand momentum-driven hedge fundsmade it their business to speculate onfood There were plenty of ways toget in on the action but as anincreasingly complex amalgam offood-based commodity derivativespiled one on top of the other themore difficult it became to perceive what it was that lay at the bottom of the speculative scrumWhat drove the global food market in 2011 ndash other than those old faithfuls fear and greed I putin a call to Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam of the New England Complex Systems Institute (Necsi)to see if he might have an answer
Necsi based in Cambridge draws on fields as various as maths physics and computer science toprovide new perspectives on ndash and perhaps even solve ndash pressing problems in economicshealthcare international development and military and ethnic violence Last year Bar-Yam andhis colleagues published a paper called The Food Crises A Quantitative Model of FoodPrices Including Speculators and Ethanol Conversion in which the Necsi crewmathematically isolated and quantified the effects of speculation as a driving force behind thebull market in global food derivatives
Prices have been way out of equilibrium in 2011 Bar-Yam told me The bubble has not burstyet
According to Bar-Yam the international thirst for biofuels has put a strain on arable landpreviously reserved for food production At the same time as the rise of the biofuel mandate therise of investable commodity indexes and other electronically traded funds has offered investorsof all stripes a chance to sink their cash in a sparkling new casino of derivative products As a
result an ever-flowing spring ofspeculative capital sustains the status quo
But just as food is no ordinary widgetspeculation in commodity markets is notsimply a matter of financial predation Thehigh prices of food have resulted inaccumulations of inventories at the sametime as people cant afford food said Bar-Yam who noted that the Arab spring wastriggered by the food-price bubble In factNecsis quantitative model of speculationpredicted the uprisings in Tunisia Libyaand Egypt and warned that if food prices
remain inflated riots and revolutionswill go global sometime between July2012 and August 2013
We are at a critical point said Bar-Yam We dont have a stay-the-course option right now
He believes the time has come forglobal regulators to step in andmanage the global market Their firsttask would be to guaranteetransparency and make publicinformation previously shrouded insecrecy ndash such as who holds the biggest stakes in global commodities Transparent accounting
practices would have made the disappearanceof $12bn worth of customer money fromthe books of MF Global less a matter ofsleight of hand and more a matter ofinternational crime
The second part of the speculation solutionhinges on a return to traditional positionlimits in commodities limits enforced byinternational laws geared to stop bankershedge funds and sovereign wealth funds fromgoing long on the worlds food supply and ineffect gambling on hunger
Nothing influences financial regulators likeequations so the reforms we can look
forward to in 2012 will ultimately depend on the numbers Which is a mixed blessing Onereason people dont want to understand the math is the deafness of those who are making themoney said Bar-Yam But the old mathematics is manifestly wrong
allocate the resources necessary to maintainour strong military presence in this region
While administration officials insist that thisnew policy is not aimed specifically at Chinathe implication is clear enough from now onthe primary focus of US military strategy willnot be counterterrorism but the containmentof that economically booming land - atwhatever risk or cost
The planets new centre of gravity
The new emphasis on Asia and thecontainment of China is necessary top officials insist because the Asia-Pacific region nowconstitutes the centre of gravity of world economic activity While the United States wasbogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan the argument goes China had the leeway to expand itsinfluence in the region
For the first time since the end of World War II Washington is no longer the dominant economicactor there If the United States is to retain its title as the worlds paramount power it must thisthinking goes restore its primacy in the region and roll back Chinese influence In the comingdecades no foreign policy task will it is claimed be more important than this
In line with its new strategy the administration has undertaken a number of moves intended tobolster US power in Asia and so put China on the defensive These include a decision to deployan initial 250 US Marines - someday to be upped to 2500 - to an Australian air base in Darwinon that countrys north coast and the adoption on November 18 of the Manila Declaration apledge of closer US military ties with the Philippines
An economically weakened United States can no longer hope to prevail in multiple regionssimultaneously
At the same time the White House announced the sale of 24 F-16 fighter jets to Indonesia and avisit by Hillary Clinton to isolated Burma long a Chinese ally - the first there by a secretary ofstate in 56 years Clinton has also spoken of increased diplomatic and military ties withSingapore Thailand and Vietnam - all countries surrounding China or overlooking key traderoutes that China relies on for importing raw materials and exporting manufactured goods
As portrayed by administration officials such moves are intended to maximise Americasadvantages in the diplomatic and military realm at a time when China dominates the economicrealm regionally In a recent article in Foreign Policy magazine Clinton revealingly suggestedthat an economically weakened United States can no longer hope to prevail in multiple regionssimultaneously It must choose its battlefields carefully and deploy its limited assets - most ofthem of a military nature - to maximum advantage Given Asias strategic centrality to globalpower this means concentrating resources there
Over the last ten years she writeswe have allocated immense resourcesto [Iraq and Afghanistan] In the nextten years we need to be smart andsystematic about where we invest timeand energy so that we put ourselves inthe best position to sustain ourleadership [and] secure our interests One of the most important tasks ofAmerican statecraft over the nextdecade will therefore be to lock in asubstantially increased investment -diplomatic economic strategic andotherwise - in the Asia-Pacific region
Such thinking with its distinctly military focus appears dangerously provocative The stepsannounced entail an increased military presence in waters bordering China and enhanced militaryties with that countrys neighbours - moves certain to arouse alarm in Beijing and strengthen thehand of those in the ruling circle (especially in the Chinese military leadership) who favour amore activist militarised response to US incursions
Whatever forms that takes one thing is certain the leadership of the globes number twoeconomic power is not going to let itself appear weak and indecisive in the face of a US buildupon the periphery of its country This in turn means that we may be sowing the seeds of a newCold War in Asia in 2011
The US military buildup and the potential for a powerful Chinese counter-thrust have alreadybeen the subject of discussion in the American and Asian press But one crucial dimension of thisincipient struggle has received no attention at all the degree to which Washingtons suddenmoves have been dictated by a fresh analysis of the global energy equation revealing (as theObama administration sees it) increased vulnerabilities for the Chinese side and new advantages
for Washington
The new energy equation
For decades the United States has been heavilydependent on imported oil much of it obtained fromthe Middle East and Africa while China was largelyself-sufficient in oil output In 2001 the United Statesconsumed 196 million barrels of oil per day whileproducing only nine million barrels itself Thedependency on foreign suppliers for that 106 million-barrel shortfall proved a source of enormous concernfor Washington policymakers They responded byforging ever closer more militarised ties with MiddleEastern oil producers and going to war on occasion to
ensure the safety of US supply linesIn 2001 China onthe other hand consumed only five million barrels perday and so with a domestic output of 33 millionbarrels needed to import only 17 million barrels Thosecold hard numbers made its leadership far lessconcerned about the reliability of the countrys majoroverseas providers - and so it did not need to duplicatethe same sort of foreign policy entanglements thatWashington had long been involved inNow so the Obama administration has concluded thetables are beginning to turn As a result of Chinasbooming economy and the emergence of a sizeable andgrowing middle class (many of whom have already bought their first cars) the countrys oilconsumption is exploding Running at about 78 million barrels per day in 2008 it willaccording to recent projections by the US Department of Energy reach 136 million barrels in2020 and 169 million in 2035
Domestic oil production on the other hand is expected to grow from 40 million barrels per dayin 2008 to 53 million in 2035 Not surprisingly then Chinese imports are expected to skyrocketfrom 38 million barrels per day in 2008 to a projected 116 million in 2035 - at which time theywill exceed those of the United States
Thanks to increased production in tough oil areas of the United States future importsare expected to decline even as energy consumption rises
The US meanwhile can look forward to an improved energy situation Thanks to increasedproduction in tough oil areas of the United States including the Arctic seas off Alaska thedeep waters of the Gulf of Mexico and shale formations in Montana North Dakota and Texasfuture imports are expected to decline even as energy consumption rises
In addition more oil is likely to be available from the Western Hemisphere rather than theMiddle East or Africa Again this will be thanks to the exploitation of yet more tough oil areasincluding the Athabasca tar sands of Canada Brazilian oil fields in the deep Atlantic andincreasingly pacified energy-rich regions of previously war-torn Colombia According to theDepartment of Energy combined production in the United States Canada and Brazil is expectedto climb by 106 million barrels per day between 2009 and 2035 - an enormous jump consideringthat most areas of the world are expecting declining output
Whose sea lanes are these anywayFrom a geopolitical perspective all this seems to confer a genuine advantage on the UnitedStates even as China becomes ever more vulnerable to the vagaries of events in or along the sealanes to distant lands It means Washington will be able to contemplate a gradual loosening of itsmilitary and political ties with the Middle Eastern oil states that have dominated its foreignpolicy for so long and have led to those costly devastating warsIndeed as President Obama said in Canberra the US is now in a position to begin to refocus its
military capabilities elsewhere After a decade in whichwe fought two wars that cost us dearly he declared theUnited States is turning our attention to the vast potentialof the Asia-Pacific region
For China all this spells potential strategic impairmentAlthough some of Chinas imported oil will traveloverland through pipelines from Kazakhstan and Russiathe great majority of it will still come by tanker from theMiddle East Africa and Latin America over sea lanespoliced by the US Navy Indeed almost every tankerbringing oil to China travels across the South China Seaa body of water the Obama administration is now seekingto place under effective naval control
By securing naval dominance of the South China Sea andadjacent waters the Obama administration evidently aimsto acquire the 21st century energy equivalent of 20thcentury nuclear blackmail Push us too far the policyimplies and well bring your economy to its knees by
blocking your flow of vital energy supplies
Of course nothing like this will ever be said in public but it is inconceivable that senioradministration officials are not thinking along just these lines and there is ample evidence thatthe Chinese are deeply worried about the risk - as indicated for example by their frantic effortsto build staggeringly expensive pipelines across the entire expanse of Asia to the Caspian Sea basin
As the underlying nature of the new Obama strategic blueprint becomes clearer there can be noquestion that the Chinese leadership will in response take steps to ensure the safety of Chinasenergy lifelines Some of these moves will undoubtedly be economic and diplomatic includingfor example efforts to court regional players like Vietnam and Indonesia as well as major oilsuppliers like Angola Nigeria and Saudi Arabia Make no mistake however others will be of amilitary nature
A significant buildup of the Chinese navy - still small andbackward when compared to the fleets of the United States andits principal allies - would seem all but inevitable Likewisecloser military ties between China and Russia as well as withthe Central Asian member states of the Shanghai CooperationOrganization (Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan andUzbekistan) are assured
In addition Washington could now be sparking the beginningsof a genuine Cold-War-style arms race in Asia which neithercountry can in the long run afford All of this is likely to leadto greater tension and a heightened risk of inadvertentescalation arising out of future incidents involving US Chinese
and allied vessels - such as the one that occurred in March 2009 when a flotilla of Chinese navalvessels surrounded a US anti-submarine warfare surveillance ship the Impeccable and almostprecipitated a shooting incident As more warships circulate through these waters in anincreasingly provocative fashion the risk that such an incident will result in something far moreexplosive can only grow
Greater reliance on the dirtiest of energies will result in increased greenhouse gasemissions and a multitude of other environmental hazards
Nor will the potential risks and costs of such a military-first policy aimed at China be restrictedto Asia In the drive to promote greater US self-sufficiency in energy output the Obamaadministration is giving its approval to production techniques - Arctic drilling deep-offshoredrilling and hydraulic fracturing - that are guaranteed to lead to further Deepwater Horizon-styleenvironmental catastrophe at home
Greater reliance on Canadian tar sands thedirtiest of energies will result in increasedgreenhouse gas emissions and a multitude ofother environmental hazards while deepAtlantic oil production off the Brazilian coastand elsewhere has its own set of grim dangers
All of this ensures that environmentallymilitarily and economically we will findourselves in a more not less perilous worldThe desire to turn away from disastrous landwars in the Greater Middle East to deal with keyissues now simmering in Asia is understandablebut choosing a strategy that puts such an emphasis on military dominance and provocation isbound to provoke a response in kind It is hardly a prudent path to head down nor will it in thelong run advance Americas interests at a time when global economic cooperation is crucialSacrificing the environment to achieve greater energy independence makes no more sense
A new Cold War in Asia and a hemispheric energy policy that could endanger the planet its afatal brew that should be reconsidered before the slide toward confrontation and environmentaldisaster becomes irreversible You dont have to be a seer to know that this is not the definition ofgood statesmanship but of the march of folly
Michael Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and theauthor most recently of Rising Powers Shrinking Planet
A version of this article was first published on Tom Dispatch
The views expressed in this article are the authors own and do not necessarily reflect AlJazeeras editorial policy
Barack Obamarsquos big government vacation thepresident adds nearly $4 million to the nationaldebt with his lavish Hawaiian holiday By
1 Nile Gardiner
December 19th 2011
Around $4 million (pound26 million) ndash theexpected total cost to the US taxpayer of theObama Christmas family vacation to Hawaii
1 according to the Hawaii Reporter (hattip Rob Bluey at The Foundry) This is anastonishing amount of public money to bespending in an age of austerity ndash when thepresident is supposed to be leading efforts tocut the US budget deficit the largest sinceWorld War Two and a towering $15 trillionnational debt
Hawaii Reporter research shows the totalcost for the Presidentrsquos visit for taxpayersfar exceeded $15 million in 2010 ndash but iseven more costly this year because heextended his vacation by three days andthe cost for Air Force One travel has jumped since last assessed in 2000 In additionHawaii Reporter was able to obtain more specifics about the executive expenditures
The total cost (based on what is known) for the 17-day vacation roundtrip vacation toHawaii for the President his family and staff has climbed to more than $4 million
This $4 million figure is nearly 100 times the average annual salary of an American workerwhich currently stands at $41673 The HawaiiReporter calculates that travel costs alone for thepresident and his entourage via Air Force One (plus aseparate trip for Michelle Obama who has traveled inadvance) in addition to a United States Air Force C-17 cargo aircraft to transport the presidential limoshelicopters and other support equipment amounts toa whopping $3629622 Housing for security staffcosts an estimated $151200 and luxurious hotelrooms for the presidentrsquos 24-strong staff a further$72216 Based on these figures the total cost to the
federal US taxpayer (and the additionalburden on the national debt) is a staggering$3853038 If you add in local taxpayercosts of $260000 (including police overtimeand city ambulances) the total publicexpense is $4113038
The story has of course been ignored by theliberal-dominated mainstream media whichinevitably turns a blind eye to abuses ofpower by the Obama presidency You canimagine the outrage that would have greetedGeorge W Bush if had tried this kind of stuntduring his time in office He would probablyhave been burned at the stake on the pages of
The New York Times and endlessly condemned on network television
Like the vast majority of Americans Barack Obama should be prepared to make sacrifices notleast when hersquos spending other peoplersquos money Is it too much to ask the president to vacation atCamp David in Maryland instead of flying nearly 5000 miles to Hawaii Once again he isdisplaying a let-them-eat-cake attitude at a time of mass unemployment stagnant housingmarkets and growing poverty
For President Obama even his vacations have become a vulgar symbol of big government excessand over-spending ndash letrsquos also not forget hisgrand summer holiday at MartharsquosVineyard While tens of millions of Americansstruggle this Christmas to pay the mortgage andput food on the table for their families theleader of the free world will be enjoying afortnight of luxury ndash heavily subsidised at theirexpense It is a further demonstration of an out-of-touch
presidency with an entitlement mentality onethat treats American taxpayers as a money-printing machine It is little wonder that over 70per cent of Americans believe their country ismoving down the wrong track (
1 according to RealClear Politics) presided over by a liberal elite that runs up mountains ofdebt for future generations to bear
Speculation drives up food prices as bankersgamble on hunger
1 Frederick Kaufman
Tuesday 20 December 2011
Bankers hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds are gambling on hunger by speculatingon food supply Global regulators should step in to stop them
High-frequency traders and momentum-driven hedge funds made it their business to speculate onfood in 2011 Photograph Tim WimborneReuters
Last year the price of global food floated high as ever Thats bad news for most of us but not forthose who trade commodities In fact 2011 was a great year for the traders who thrive on badnews currency woes drought flood freeze fire and all other manifestations of imminentapocalypse
2011 was a wild ride One spring morning cocoa futures dropped 12 in less than a minuteCorn ascended to all-time peaks and sugar fluctuated more in one day than it used to in a monthHoward Schultz CEO of Starbucks railed against speculators in coffee while PepsiCo forecastits own medium-term commodity cost increases to exceed $1bn All of which meant a bumpercrop for the worlds commodity exchanges ndash even those that used to be backwaters like theKansas City Board of Trade and the Minneapolis Grain Exchange both of which recorded theirhighest electronic trading volumes in history
It was a volatile year and the volatility posed problems for the food industry Faced with a high-stakes game of price-shifting basic ingredients the worlds largest food processors and retailersput out the call for maths PhDs and economic modellers to theorise and implement ever-more
complex risk-management strategiesjust so they could keep up with thesecond-by-second spikes and dips ofgrain and livestock futures In themeantime high-frequency tradersand momentum-driven hedge fundsmade it their business to speculate onfood There were plenty of ways toget in on the action but as anincreasingly complex amalgam offood-based commodity derivativespiled one on top of the other themore difficult it became to perceive what it was that lay at the bottom of the speculative scrumWhat drove the global food market in 2011 ndash other than those old faithfuls fear and greed I putin a call to Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam of the New England Complex Systems Institute (Necsi)to see if he might have an answer
Necsi based in Cambridge draws on fields as various as maths physics and computer science toprovide new perspectives on ndash and perhaps even solve ndash pressing problems in economicshealthcare international development and military and ethnic violence Last year Bar-Yam andhis colleagues published a paper called The Food Crises A Quantitative Model of FoodPrices Including Speculators and Ethanol Conversion in which the Necsi crewmathematically isolated and quantified the effects of speculation as a driving force behind thebull market in global food derivatives
Prices have been way out of equilibrium in 2011 Bar-Yam told me The bubble has not burstyet
According to Bar-Yam the international thirst for biofuels has put a strain on arable landpreviously reserved for food production At the same time as the rise of the biofuel mandate therise of investable commodity indexes and other electronically traded funds has offered investorsof all stripes a chance to sink their cash in a sparkling new casino of derivative products As a
result an ever-flowing spring ofspeculative capital sustains the status quo
But just as food is no ordinary widgetspeculation in commodity markets is notsimply a matter of financial predation Thehigh prices of food have resulted inaccumulations of inventories at the sametime as people cant afford food said Bar-Yam who noted that the Arab spring wastriggered by the food-price bubble In factNecsis quantitative model of speculationpredicted the uprisings in Tunisia Libyaand Egypt and warned that if food prices
remain inflated riots and revolutionswill go global sometime between July2012 and August 2013
We are at a critical point said Bar-Yam We dont have a stay-the-course option right now
He believes the time has come forglobal regulators to step in andmanage the global market Their firsttask would be to guaranteetransparency and make publicinformation previously shrouded insecrecy ndash such as who holds the biggest stakes in global commodities Transparent accounting
practices would have made the disappearanceof $12bn worth of customer money fromthe books of MF Global less a matter ofsleight of hand and more a matter ofinternational crime
The second part of the speculation solutionhinges on a return to traditional positionlimits in commodities limits enforced byinternational laws geared to stop bankershedge funds and sovereign wealth funds fromgoing long on the worlds food supply and ineffect gambling on hunger
Nothing influences financial regulators likeequations so the reforms we can look
forward to in 2012 will ultimately depend on the numbers Which is a mixed blessing Onereason people dont want to understand the math is the deafness of those who are making themoney said Bar-Yam But the old mathematics is manifestly wrong
Over the last ten years she writeswe have allocated immense resourcesto [Iraq and Afghanistan] In the nextten years we need to be smart andsystematic about where we invest timeand energy so that we put ourselves inthe best position to sustain ourleadership [and] secure our interests One of the most important tasks ofAmerican statecraft over the nextdecade will therefore be to lock in asubstantially increased investment -diplomatic economic strategic andotherwise - in the Asia-Pacific region
Such thinking with its distinctly military focus appears dangerously provocative The stepsannounced entail an increased military presence in waters bordering China and enhanced militaryties with that countrys neighbours - moves certain to arouse alarm in Beijing and strengthen thehand of those in the ruling circle (especially in the Chinese military leadership) who favour amore activist militarised response to US incursions
Whatever forms that takes one thing is certain the leadership of the globes number twoeconomic power is not going to let itself appear weak and indecisive in the face of a US buildupon the periphery of its country This in turn means that we may be sowing the seeds of a newCold War in Asia in 2011
The US military buildup and the potential for a powerful Chinese counter-thrust have alreadybeen the subject of discussion in the American and Asian press But one crucial dimension of thisincipient struggle has received no attention at all the degree to which Washingtons suddenmoves have been dictated by a fresh analysis of the global energy equation revealing (as theObama administration sees it) increased vulnerabilities for the Chinese side and new advantages
for Washington
The new energy equation
For decades the United States has been heavilydependent on imported oil much of it obtained fromthe Middle East and Africa while China was largelyself-sufficient in oil output In 2001 the United Statesconsumed 196 million barrels of oil per day whileproducing only nine million barrels itself Thedependency on foreign suppliers for that 106 million-barrel shortfall proved a source of enormous concernfor Washington policymakers They responded byforging ever closer more militarised ties with MiddleEastern oil producers and going to war on occasion to
ensure the safety of US supply linesIn 2001 China onthe other hand consumed only five million barrels perday and so with a domestic output of 33 millionbarrels needed to import only 17 million barrels Thosecold hard numbers made its leadership far lessconcerned about the reliability of the countrys majoroverseas providers - and so it did not need to duplicatethe same sort of foreign policy entanglements thatWashington had long been involved inNow so the Obama administration has concluded thetables are beginning to turn As a result of Chinasbooming economy and the emergence of a sizeable andgrowing middle class (many of whom have already bought their first cars) the countrys oilconsumption is exploding Running at about 78 million barrels per day in 2008 it willaccording to recent projections by the US Department of Energy reach 136 million barrels in2020 and 169 million in 2035
Domestic oil production on the other hand is expected to grow from 40 million barrels per dayin 2008 to 53 million in 2035 Not surprisingly then Chinese imports are expected to skyrocketfrom 38 million barrels per day in 2008 to a projected 116 million in 2035 - at which time theywill exceed those of the United States
Thanks to increased production in tough oil areas of the United States future importsare expected to decline even as energy consumption rises
The US meanwhile can look forward to an improved energy situation Thanks to increasedproduction in tough oil areas of the United States including the Arctic seas off Alaska thedeep waters of the Gulf of Mexico and shale formations in Montana North Dakota and Texasfuture imports are expected to decline even as energy consumption rises
In addition more oil is likely to be available from the Western Hemisphere rather than theMiddle East or Africa Again this will be thanks to the exploitation of yet more tough oil areasincluding the Athabasca tar sands of Canada Brazilian oil fields in the deep Atlantic andincreasingly pacified energy-rich regions of previously war-torn Colombia According to theDepartment of Energy combined production in the United States Canada and Brazil is expectedto climb by 106 million barrels per day between 2009 and 2035 - an enormous jump consideringthat most areas of the world are expecting declining output
Whose sea lanes are these anywayFrom a geopolitical perspective all this seems to confer a genuine advantage on the UnitedStates even as China becomes ever more vulnerable to the vagaries of events in or along the sealanes to distant lands It means Washington will be able to contemplate a gradual loosening of itsmilitary and political ties with the Middle Eastern oil states that have dominated its foreignpolicy for so long and have led to those costly devastating warsIndeed as President Obama said in Canberra the US is now in a position to begin to refocus its
military capabilities elsewhere After a decade in whichwe fought two wars that cost us dearly he declared theUnited States is turning our attention to the vast potentialof the Asia-Pacific region
For China all this spells potential strategic impairmentAlthough some of Chinas imported oil will traveloverland through pipelines from Kazakhstan and Russiathe great majority of it will still come by tanker from theMiddle East Africa and Latin America over sea lanespoliced by the US Navy Indeed almost every tankerbringing oil to China travels across the South China Seaa body of water the Obama administration is now seekingto place under effective naval control
By securing naval dominance of the South China Sea andadjacent waters the Obama administration evidently aimsto acquire the 21st century energy equivalent of 20thcentury nuclear blackmail Push us too far the policyimplies and well bring your economy to its knees by
blocking your flow of vital energy supplies
Of course nothing like this will ever be said in public but it is inconceivable that senioradministration officials are not thinking along just these lines and there is ample evidence thatthe Chinese are deeply worried about the risk - as indicated for example by their frantic effortsto build staggeringly expensive pipelines across the entire expanse of Asia to the Caspian Sea basin
As the underlying nature of the new Obama strategic blueprint becomes clearer there can be noquestion that the Chinese leadership will in response take steps to ensure the safety of Chinasenergy lifelines Some of these moves will undoubtedly be economic and diplomatic includingfor example efforts to court regional players like Vietnam and Indonesia as well as major oilsuppliers like Angola Nigeria and Saudi Arabia Make no mistake however others will be of amilitary nature
A significant buildup of the Chinese navy - still small andbackward when compared to the fleets of the United States andits principal allies - would seem all but inevitable Likewisecloser military ties between China and Russia as well as withthe Central Asian member states of the Shanghai CooperationOrganization (Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan andUzbekistan) are assured
In addition Washington could now be sparking the beginningsof a genuine Cold-War-style arms race in Asia which neithercountry can in the long run afford All of this is likely to leadto greater tension and a heightened risk of inadvertentescalation arising out of future incidents involving US Chinese
and allied vessels - such as the one that occurred in March 2009 when a flotilla of Chinese navalvessels surrounded a US anti-submarine warfare surveillance ship the Impeccable and almostprecipitated a shooting incident As more warships circulate through these waters in anincreasingly provocative fashion the risk that such an incident will result in something far moreexplosive can only grow
Greater reliance on the dirtiest of energies will result in increased greenhouse gasemissions and a multitude of other environmental hazards
Nor will the potential risks and costs of such a military-first policy aimed at China be restrictedto Asia In the drive to promote greater US self-sufficiency in energy output the Obamaadministration is giving its approval to production techniques - Arctic drilling deep-offshoredrilling and hydraulic fracturing - that are guaranteed to lead to further Deepwater Horizon-styleenvironmental catastrophe at home
Greater reliance on Canadian tar sands thedirtiest of energies will result in increasedgreenhouse gas emissions and a multitude ofother environmental hazards while deepAtlantic oil production off the Brazilian coastand elsewhere has its own set of grim dangers
All of this ensures that environmentallymilitarily and economically we will findourselves in a more not less perilous worldThe desire to turn away from disastrous landwars in the Greater Middle East to deal with keyissues now simmering in Asia is understandablebut choosing a strategy that puts such an emphasis on military dominance and provocation isbound to provoke a response in kind It is hardly a prudent path to head down nor will it in thelong run advance Americas interests at a time when global economic cooperation is crucialSacrificing the environment to achieve greater energy independence makes no more sense
A new Cold War in Asia and a hemispheric energy policy that could endanger the planet its afatal brew that should be reconsidered before the slide toward confrontation and environmentaldisaster becomes irreversible You dont have to be a seer to know that this is not the definition ofgood statesmanship but of the march of folly
Michael Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and theauthor most recently of Rising Powers Shrinking Planet
A version of this article was first published on Tom Dispatch
The views expressed in this article are the authors own and do not necessarily reflect AlJazeeras editorial policy
Barack Obamarsquos big government vacation thepresident adds nearly $4 million to the nationaldebt with his lavish Hawaiian holiday By
1 Nile Gardiner
December 19th 2011
Around $4 million (pound26 million) ndash theexpected total cost to the US taxpayer of theObama Christmas family vacation to Hawaii
1 according to the Hawaii Reporter (hattip Rob Bluey at The Foundry) This is anastonishing amount of public money to bespending in an age of austerity ndash when thepresident is supposed to be leading efforts tocut the US budget deficit the largest sinceWorld War Two and a towering $15 trillionnational debt
Hawaii Reporter research shows the totalcost for the Presidentrsquos visit for taxpayersfar exceeded $15 million in 2010 ndash but iseven more costly this year because heextended his vacation by three days andthe cost for Air Force One travel has jumped since last assessed in 2000 In additionHawaii Reporter was able to obtain more specifics about the executive expenditures
The total cost (based on what is known) for the 17-day vacation roundtrip vacation toHawaii for the President his family and staff has climbed to more than $4 million
This $4 million figure is nearly 100 times the average annual salary of an American workerwhich currently stands at $41673 The HawaiiReporter calculates that travel costs alone for thepresident and his entourage via Air Force One (plus aseparate trip for Michelle Obama who has traveled inadvance) in addition to a United States Air Force C-17 cargo aircraft to transport the presidential limoshelicopters and other support equipment amounts toa whopping $3629622 Housing for security staffcosts an estimated $151200 and luxurious hotelrooms for the presidentrsquos 24-strong staff a further$72216 Based on these figures the total cost to the
federal US taxpayer (and the additionalburden on the national debt) is a staggering$3853038 If you add in local taxpayercosts of $260000 (including police overtimeand city ambulances) the total publicexpense is $4113038
The story has of course been ignored by theliberal-dominated mainstream media whichinevitably turns a blind eye to abuses ofpower by the Obama presidency You canimagine the outrage that would have greetedGeorge W Bush if had tried this kind of stuntduring his time in office He would probablyhave been burned at the stake on the pages of
The New York Times and endlessly condemned on network television
Like the vast majority of Americans Barack Obama should be prepared to make sacrifices notleast when hersquos spending other peoplersquos money Is it too much to ask the president to vacation atCamp David in Maryland instead of flying nearly 5000 miles to Hawaii Once again he isdisplaying a let-them-eat-cake attitude at a time of mass unemployment stagnant housingmarkets and growing poverty
For President Obama even his vacations have become a vulgar symbol of big government excessand over-spending ndash letrsquos also not forget hisgrand summer holiday at MartharsquosVineyard While tens of millions of Americansstruggle this Christmas to pay the mortgage andput food on the table for their families theleader of the free world will be enjoying afortnight of luxury ndash heavily subsidised at theirexpense It is a further demonstration of an out-of-touch
presidency with an entitlement mentality onethat treats American taxpayers as a money-printing machine It is little wonder that over 70per cent of Americans believe their country ismoving down the wrong track (
1 according to RealClear Politics) presided over by a liberal elite that runs up mountains ofdebt for future generations to bear
Speculation drives up food prices as bankersgamble on hunger
1 Frederick Kaufman
Tuesday 20 December 2011
Bankers hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds are gambling on hunger by speculatingon food supply Global regulators should step in to stop them
High-frequency traders and momentum-driven hedge funds made it their business to speculate onfood in 2011 Photograph Tim WimborneReuters
Last year the price of global food floated high as ever Thats bad news for most of us but not forthose who trade commodities In fact 2011 was a great year for the traders who thrive on badnews currency woes drought flood freeze fire and all other manifestations of imminentapocalypse
2011 was a wild ride One spring morning cocoa futures dropped 12 in less than a minuteCorn ascended to all-time peaks and sugar fluctuated more in one day than it used to in a monthHoward Schultz CEO of Starbucks railed against speculators in coffee while PepsiCo forecastits own medium-term commodity cost increases to exceed $1bn All of which meant a bumpercrop for the worlds commodity exchanges ndash even those that used to be backwaters like theKansas City Board of Trade and the Minneapolis Grain Exchange both of which recorded theirhighest electronic trading volumes in history
It was a volatile year and the volatility posed problems for the food industry Faced with a high-stakes game of price-shifting basic ingredients the worlds largest food processors and retailersput out the call for maths PhDs and economic modellers to theorise and implement ever-more
complex risk-management strategiesjust so they could keep up with thesecond-by-second spikes and dips ofgrain and livestock futures In themeantime high-frequency tradersand momentum-driven hedge fundsmade it their business to speculate onfood There were plenty of ways toget in on the action but as anincreasingly complex amalgam offood-based commodity derivativespiled one on top of the other themore difficult it became to perceive what it was that lay at the bottom of the speculative scrumWhat drove the global food market in 2011 ndash other than those old faithfuls fear and greed I putin a call to Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam of the New England Complex Systems Institute (Necsi)to see if he might have an answer
Necsi based in Cambridge draws on fields as various as maths physics and computer science toprovide new perspectives on ndash and perhaps even solve ndash pressing problems in economicshealthcare international development and military and ethnic violence Last year Bar-Yam andhis colleagues published a paper called The Food Crises A Quantitative Model of FoodPrices Including Speculators and Ethanol Conversion in which the Necsi crewmathematically isolated and quantified the effects of speculation as a driving force behind thebull market in global food derivatives
Prices have been way out of equilibrium in 2011 Bar-Yam told me The bubble has not burstyet
According to Bar-Yam the international thirst for biofuels has put a strain on arable landpreviously reserved for food production At the same time as the rise of the biofuel mandate therise of investable commodity indexes and other electronically traded funds has offered investorsof all stripes a chance to sink their cash in a sparkling new casino of derivative products As a
result an ever-flowing spring ofspeculative capital sustains the status quo
But just as food is no ordinary widgetspeculation in commodity markets is notsimply a matter of financial predation Thehigh prices of food have resulted inaccumulations of inventories at the sametime as people cant afford food said Bar-Yam who noted that the Arab spring wastriggered by the food-price bubble In factNecsis quantitative model of speculationpredicted the uprisings in Tunisia Libyaand Egypt and warned that if food prices
remain inflated riots and revolutionswill go global sometime between July2012 and August 2013
We are at a critical point said Bar-Yam We dont have a stay-the-course option right now
He believes the time has come forglobal regulators to step in andmanage the global market Their firsttask would be to guaranteetransparency and make publicinformation previously shrouded insecrecy ndash such as who holds the biggest stakes in global commodities Transparent accounting
practices would have made the disappearanceof $12bn worth of customer money fromthe books of MF Global less a matter ofsleight of hand and more a matter ofinternational crime
The second part of the speculation solutionhinges on a return to traditional positionlimits in commodities limits enforced byinternational laws geared to stop bankershedge funds and sovereign wealth funds fromgoing long on the worlds food supply and ineffect gambling on hunger
Nothing influences financial regulators likeequations so the reforms we can look
forward to in 2012 will ultimately depend on the numbers Which is a mixed blessing Onereason people dont want to understand the math is the deafness of those who are making themoney said Bar-Yam But the old mathematics is manifestly wrong
ensure the safety of US supply linesIn 2001 China onthe other hand consumed only five million barrels perday and so with a domestic output of 33 millionbarrels needed to import only 17 million barrels Thosecold hard numbers made its leadership far lessconcerned about the reliability of the countrys majoroverseas providers - and so it did not need to duplicatethe same sort of foreign policy entanglements thatWashington had long been involved inNow so the Obama administration has concluded thetables are beginning to turn As a result of Chinasbooming economy and the emergence of a sizeable andgrowing middle class (many of whom have already bought their first cars) the countrys oilconsumption is exploding Running at about 78 million barrels per day in 2008 it willaccording to recent projections by the US Department of Energy reach 136 million barrels in2020 and 169 million in 2035
Domestic oil production on the other hand is expected to grow from 40 million barrels per dayin 2008 to 53 million in 2035 Not surprisingly then Chinese imports are expected to skyrocketfrom 38 million barrels per day in 2008 to a projected 116 million in 2035 - at which time theywill exceed those of the United States
Thanks to increased production in tough oil areas of the United States future importsare expected to decline even as energy consumption rises
The US meanwhile can look forward to an improved energy situation Thanks to increasedproduction in tough oil areas of the United States including the Arctic seas off Alaska thedeep waters of the Gulf of Mexico and shale formations in Montana North Dakota and Texasfuture imports are expected to decline even as energy consumption rises
In addition more oil is likely to be available from the Western Hemisphere rather than theMiddle East or Africa Again this will be thanks to the exploitation of yet more tough oil areasincluding the Athabasca tar sands of Canada Brazilian oil fields in the deep Atlantic andincreasingly pacified energy-rich regions of previously war-torn Colombia According to theDepartment of Energy combined production in the United States Canada and Brazil is expectedto climb by 106 million barrels per day between 2009 and 2035 - an enormous jump consideringthat most areas of the world are expecting declining output
Whose sea lanes are these anywayFrom a geopolitical perspective all this seems to confer a genuine advantage on the UnitedStates even as China becomes ever more vulnerable to the vagaries of events in or along the sealanes to distant lands It means Washington will be able to contemplate a gradual loosening of itsmilitary and political ties with the Middle Eastern oil states that have dominated its foreignpolicy for so long and have led to those costly devastating warsIndeed as President Obama said in Canberra the US is now in a position to begin to refocus its
military capabilities elsewhere After a decade in whichwe fought two wars that cost us dearly he declared theUnited States is turning our attention to the vast potentialof the Asia-Pacific region
For China all this spells potential strategic impairmentAlthough some of Chinas imported oil will traveloverland through pipelines from Kazakhstan and Russiathe great majority of it will still come by tanker from theMiddle East Africa and Latin America over sea lanespoliced by the US Navy Indeed almost every tankerbringing oil to China travels across the South China Seaa body of water the Obama administration is now seekingto place under effective naval control
By securing naval dominance of the South China Sea andadjacent waters the Obama administration evidently aimsto acquire the 21st century energy equivalent of 20thcentury nuclear blackmail Push us too far the policyimplies and well bring your economy to its knees by
blocking your flow of vital energy supplies
Of course nothing like this will ever be said in public but it is inconceivable that senioradministration officials are not thinking along just these lines and there is ample evidence thatthe Chinese are deeply worried about the risk - as indicated for example by their frantic effortsto build staggeringly expensive pipelines across the entire expanse of Asia to the Caspian Sea basin
As the underlying nature of the new Obama strategic blueprint becomes clearer there can be noquestion that the Chinese leadership will in response take steps to ensure the safety of Chinasenergy lifelines Some of these moves will undoubtedly be economic and diplomatic includingfor example efforts to court regional players like Vietnam and Indonesia as well as major oilsuppliers like Angola Nigeria and Saudi Arabia Make no mistake however others will be of amilitary nature
A significant buildup of the Chinese navy - still small andbackward when compared to the fleets of the United States andits principal allies - would seem all but inevitable Likewisecloser military ties between China and Russia as well as withthe Central Asian member states of the Shanghai CooperationOrganization (Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan andUzbekistan) are assured
In addition Washington could now be sparking the beginningsof a genuine Cold-War-style arms race in Asia which neithercountry can in the long run afford All of this is likely to leadto greater tension and a heightened risk of inadvertentescalation arising out of future incidents involving US Chinese
and allied vessels - such as the one that occurred in March 2009 when a flotilla of Chinese navalvessels surrounded a US anti-submarine warfare surveillance ship the Impeccable and almostprecipitated a shooting incident As more warships circulate through these waters in anincreasingly provocative fashion the risk that such an incident will result in something far moreexplosive can only grow
Greater reliance on the dirtiest of energies will result in increased greenhouse gasemissions and a multitude of other environmental hazards
Nor will the potential risks and costs of such a military-first policy aimed at China be restrictedto Asia In the drive to promote greater US self-sufficiency in energy output the Obamaadministration is giving its approval to production techniques - Arctic drilling deep-offshoredrilling and hydraulic fracturing - that are guaranteed to lead to further Deepwater Horizon-styleenvironmental catastrophe at home
Greater reliance on Canadian tar sands thedirtiest of energies will result in increasedgreenhouse gas emissions and a multitude ofother environmental hazards while deepAtlantic oil production off the Brazilian coastand elsewhere has its own set of grim dangers
All of this ensures that environmentallymilitarily and economically we will findourselves in a more not less perilous worldThe desire to turn away from disastrous landwars in the Greater Middle East to deal with keyissues now simmering in Asia is understandablebut choosing a strategy that puts such an emphasis on military dominance and provocation isbound to provoke a response in kind It is hardly a prudent path to head down nor will it in thelong run advance Americas interests at a time when global economic cooperation is crucialSacrificing the environment to achieve greater energy independence makes no more sense
A new Cold War in Asia and a hemispheric energy policy that could endanger the planet its afatal brew that should be reconsidered before the slide toward confrontation and environmentaldisaster becomes irreversible You dont have to be a seer to know that this is not the definition ofgood statesmanship but of the march of folly
Michael Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and theauthor most recently of Rising Powers Shrinking Planet
A version of this article was first published on Tom Dispatch
The views expressed in this article are the authors own and do not necessarily reflect AlJazeeras editorial policy
Barack Obamarsquos big government vacation thepresident adds nearly $4 million to the nationaldebt with his lavish Hawaiian holiday By
1 Nile Gardiner
December 19th 2011
Around $4 million (pound26 million) ndash theexpected total cost to the US taxpayer of theObama Christmas family vacation to Hawaii
1 according to the Hawaii Reporter (hattip Rob Bluey at The Foundry) This is anastonishing amount of public money to bespending in an age of austerity ndash when thepresident is supposed to be leading efforts tocut the US budget deficit the largest sinceWorld War Two and a towering $15 trillionnational debt
Hawaii Reporter research shows the totalcost for the Presidentrsquos visit for taxpayersfar exceeded $15 million in 2010 ndash but iseven more costly this year because heextended his vacation by three days andthe cost for Air Force One travel has jumped since last assessed in 2000 In additionHawaii Reporter was able to obtain more specifics about the executive expenditures
The total cost (based on what is known) for the 17-day vacation roundtrip vacation toHawaii for the President his family and staff has climbed to more than $4 million
This $4 million figure is nearly 100 times the average annual salary of an American workerwhich currently stands at $41673 The HawaiiReporter calculates that travel costs alone for thepresident and his entourage via Air Force One (plus aseparate trip for Michelle Obama who has traveled inadvance) in addition to a United States Air Force C-17 cargo aircraft to transport the presidential limoshelicopters and other support equipment amounts toa whopping $3629622 Housing for security staffcosts an estimated $151200 and luxurious hotelrooms for the presidentrsquos 24-strong staff a further$72216 Based on these figures the total cost to the
federal US taxpayer (and the additionalburden on the national debt) is a staggering$3853038 If you add in local taxpayercosts of $260000 (including police overtimeand city ambulances) the total publicexpense is $4113038
The story has of course been ignored by theliberal-dominated mainstream media whichinevitably turns a blind eye to abuses ofpower by the Obama presidency You canimagine the outrage that would have greetedGeorge W Bush if had tried this kind of stuntduring his time in office He would probablyhave been burned at the stake on the pages of
The New York Times and endlessly condemned on network television
Like the vast majority of Americans Barack Obama should be prepared to make sacrifices notleast when hersquos spending other peoplersquos money Is it too much to ask the president to vacation atCamp David in Maryland instead of flying nearly 5000 miles to Hawaii Once again he isdisplaying a let-them-eat-cake attitude at a time of mass unemployment stagnant housingmarkets and growing poverty
For President Obama even his vacations have become a vulgar symbol of big government excessand over-spending ndash letrsquos also not forget hisgrand summer holiday at MartharsquosVineyard While tens of millions of Americansstruggle this Christmas to pay the mortgage andput food on the table for their families theleader of the free world will be enjoying afortnight of luxury ndash heavily subsidised at theirexpense It is a further demonstration of an out-of-touch
presidency with an entitlement mentality onethat treats American taxpayers as a money-printing machine It is little wonder that over 70per cent of Americans believe their country ismoving down the wrong track (
1 according to RealClear Politics) presided over by a liberal elite that runs up mountains ofdebt for future generations to bear
Speculation drives up food prices as bankersgamble on hunger
1 Frederick Kaufman
Tuesday 20 December 2011
Bankers hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds are gambling on hunger by speculatingon food supply Global regulators should step in to stop them
High-frequency traders and momentum-driven hedge funds made it their business to speculate onfood in 2011 Photograph Tim WimborneReuters
Last year the price of global food floated high as ever Thats bad news for most of us but not forthose who trade commodities In fact 2011 was a great year for the traders who thrive on badnews currency woes drought flood freeze fire and all other manifestations of imminentapocalypse
2011 was a wild ride One spring morning cocoa futures dropped 12 in less than a minuteCorn ascended to all-time peaks and sugar fluctuated more in one day than it used to in a monthHoward Schultz CEO of Starbucks railed against speculators in coffee while PepsiCo forecastits own medium-term commodity cost increases to exceed $1bn All of which meant a bumpercrop for the worlds commodity exchanges ndash even those that used to be backwaters like theKansas City Board of Trade and the Minneapolis Grain Exchange both of which recorded theirhighest electronic trading volumes in history
It was a volatile year and the volatility posed problems for the food industry Faced with a high-stakes game of price-shifting basic ingredients the worlds largest food processors and retailersput out the call for maths PhDs and economic modellers to theorise and implement ever-more
complex risk-management strategiesjust so they could keep up with thesecond-by-second spikes and dips ofgrain and livestock futures In themeantime high-frequency tradersand momentum-driven hedge fundsmade it their business to speculate onfood There were plenty of ways toget in on the action but as anincreasingly complex amalgam offood-based commodity derivativespiled one on top of the other themore difficult it became to perceive what it was that lay at the bottom of the speculative scrumWhat drove the global food market in 2011 ndash other than those old faithfuls fear and greed I putin a call to Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam of the New England Complex Systems Institute (Necsi)to see if he might have an answer
Necsi based in Cambridge draws on fields as various as maths physics and computer science toprovide new perspectives on ndash and perhaps even solve ndash pressing problems in economicshealthcare international development and military and ethnic violence Last year Bar-Yam andhis colleagues published a paper called The Food Crises A Quantitative Model of FoodPrices Including Speculators and Ethanol Conversion in which the Necsi crewmathematically isolated and quantified the effects of speculation as a driving force behind thebull market in global food derivatives
Prices have been way out of equilibrium in 2011 Bar-Yam told me The bubble has not burstyet
According to Bar-Yam the international thirst for biofuels has put a strain on arable landpreviously reserved for food production At the same time as the rise of the biofuel mandate therise of investable commodity indexes and other electronically traded funds has offered investorsof all stripes a chance to sink their cash in a sparkling new casino of derivative products As a
result an ever-flowing spring ofspeculative capital sustains the status quo
But just as food is no ordinary widgetspeculation in commodity markets is notsimply a matter of financial predation Thehigh prices of food have resulted inaccumulations of inventories at the sametime as people cant afford food said Bar-Yam who noted that the Arab spring wastriggered by the food-price bubble In factNecsis quantitative model of speculationpredicted the uprisings in Tunisia Libyaand Egypt and warned that if food prices
remain inflated riots and revolutionswill go global sometime between July2012 and August 2013
We are at a critical point said Bar-Yam We dont have a stay-the-course option right now
He believes the time has come forglobal regulators to step in andmanage the global market Their firsttask would be to guaranteetransparency and make publicinformation previously shrouded insecrecy ndash such as who holds the biggest stakes in global commodities Transparent accounting
practices would have made the disappearanceof $12bn worth of customer money fromthe books of MF Global less a matter ofsleight of hand and more a matter ofinternational crime
The second part of the speculation solutionhinges on a return to traditional positionlimits in commodities limits enforced byinternational laws geared to stop bankershedge funds and sovereign wealth funds fromgoing long on the worlds food supply and ineffect gambling on hunger
Nothing influences financial regulators likeequations so the reforms we can look
forward to in 2012 will ultimately depend on the numbers Which is a mixed blessing Onereason people dont want to understand the math is the deafness of those who are making themoney said Bar-Yam But the old mathematics is manifestly wrong
military capabilities elsewhere After a decade in whichwe fought two wars that cost us dearly he declared theUnited States is turning our attention to the vast potentialof the Asia-Pacific region
For China all this spells potential strategic impairmentAlthough some of Chinas imported oil will traveloverland through pipelines from Kazakhstan and Russiathe great majority of it will still come by tanker from theMiddle East Africa and Latin America over sea lanespoliced by the US Navy Indeed almost every tankerbringing oil to China travels across the South China Seaa body of water the Obama administration is now seekingto place under effective naval control
By securing naval dominance of the South China Sea andadjacent waters the Obama administration evidently aimsto acquire the 21st century energy equivalent of 20thcentury nuclear blackmail Push us too far the policyimplies and well bring your economy to its knees by
blocking your flow of vital energy supplies
Of course nothing like this will ever be said in public but it is inconceivable that senioradministration officials are not thinking along just these lines and there is ample evidence thatthe Chinese are deeply worried about the risk - as indicated for example by their frantic effortsto build staggeringly expensive pipelines across the entire expanse of Asia to the Caspian Sea basin
As the underlying nature of the new Obama strategic blueprint becomes clearer there can be noquestion that the Chinese leadership will in response take steps to ensure the safety of Chinasenergy lifelines Some of these moves will undoubtedly be economic and diplomatic includingfor example efforts to court regional players like Vietnam and Indonesia as well as major oilsuppliers like Angola Nigeria and Saudi Arabia Make no mistake however others will be of amilitary nature
A significant buildup of the Chinese navy - still small andbackward when compared to the fleets of the United States andits principal allies - would seem all but inevitable Likewisecloser military ties between China and Russia as well as withthe Central Asian member states of the Shanghai CooperationOrganization (Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan andUzbekistan) are assured
In addition Washington could now be sparking the beginningsof a genuine Cold-War-style arms race in Asia which neithercountry can in the long run afford All of this is likely to leadto greater tension and a heightened risk of inadvertentescalation arising out of future incidents involving US Chinese
and allied vessels - such as the one that occurred in March 2009 when a flotilla of Chinese navalvessels surrounded a US anti-submarine warfare surveillance ship the Impeccable and almostprecipitated a shooting incident As more warships circulate through these waters in anincreasingly provocative fashion the risk that such an incident will result in something far moreexplosive can only grow
Greater reliance on the dirtiest of energies will result in increased greenhouse gasemissions and a multitude of other environmental hazards
Nor will the potential risks and costs of such a military-first policy aimed at China be restrictedto Asia In the drive to promote greater US self-sufficiency in energy output the Obamaadministration is giving its approval to production techniques - Arctic drilling deep-offshoredrilling and hydraulic fracturing - that are guaranteed to lead to further Deepwater Horizon-styleenvironmental catastrophe at home
Greater reliance on Canadian tar sands thedirtiest of energies will result in increasedgreenhouse gas emissions and a multitude ofother environmental hazards while deepAtlantic oil production off the Brazilian coastand elsewhere has its own set of grim dangers
All of this ensures that environmentallymilitarily and economically we will findourselves in a more not less perilous worldThe desire to turn away from disastrous landwars in the Greater Middle East to deal with keyissues now simmering in Asia is understandablebut choosing a strategy that puts such an emphasis on military dominance and provocation isbound to provoke a response in kind It is hardly a prudent path to head down nor will it in thelong run advance Americas interests at a time when global economic cooperation is crucialSacrificing the environment to achieve greater energy independence makes no more sense
A new Cold War in Asia and a hemispheric energy policy that could endanger the planet its afatal brew that should be reconsidered before the slide toward confrontation and environmentaldisaster becomes irreversible You dont have to be a seer to know that this is not the definition ofgood statesmanship but of the march of folly
Michael Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and theauthor most recently of Rising Powers Shrinking Planet
A version of this article was first published on Tom Dispatch
The views expressed in this article are the authors own and do not necessarily reflect AlJazeeras editorial policy
Barack Obamarsquos big government vacation thepresident adds nearly $4 million to the nationaldebt with his lavish Hawaiian holiday By
1 Nile Gardiner
December 19th 2011
Around $4 million (pound26 million) ndash theexpected total cost to the US taxpayer of theObama Christmas family vacation to Hawaii
1 according to the Hawaii Reporter (hattip Rob Bluey at The Foundry) This is anastonishing amount of public money to bespending in an age of austerity ndash when thepresident is supposed to be leading efforts tocut the US budget deficit the largest sinceWorld War Two and a towering $15 trillionnational debt
Hawaii Reporter research shows the totalcost for the Presidentrsquos visit for taxpayersfar exceeded $15 million in 2010 ndash but iseven more costly this year because heextended his vacation by three days andthe cost for Air Force One travel has jumped since last assessed in 2000 In additionHawaii Reporter was able to obtain more specifics about the executive expenditures
The total cost (based on what is known) for the 17-day vacation roundtrip vacation toHawaii for the President his family and staff has climbed to more than $4 million
This $4 million figure is nearly 100 times the average annual salary of an American workerwhich currently stands at $41673 The HawaiiReporter calculates that travel costs alone for thepresident and his entourage via Air Force One (plus aseparate trip for Michelle Obama who has traveled inadvance) in addition to a United States Air Force C-17 cargo aircraft to transport the presidential limoshelicopters and other support equipment amounts toa whopping $3629622 Housing for security staffcosts an estimated $151200 and luxurious hotelrooms for the presidentrsquos 24-strong staff a further$72216 Based on these figures the total cost to the
federal US taxpayer (and the additionalburden on the national debt) is a staggering$3853038 If you add in local taxpayercosts of $260000 (including police overtimeand city ambulances) the total publicexpense is $4113038
The story has of course been ignored by theliberal-dominated mainstream media whichinevitably turns a blind eye to abuses ofpower by the Obama presidency You canimagine the outrage that would have greetedGeorge W Bush if had tried this kind of stuntduring his time in office He would probablyhave been burned at the stake on the pages of
The New York Times and endlessly condemned on network television
Like the vast majority of Americans Barack Obama should be prepared to make sacrifices notleast when hersquos spending other peoplersquos money Is it too much to ask the president to vacation atCamp David in Maryland instead of flying nearly 5000 miles to Hawaii Once again he isdisplaying a let-them-eat-cake attitude at a time of mass unemployment stagnant housingmarkets and growing poverty
For President Obama even his vacations have become a vulgar symbol of big government excessand over-spending ndash letrsquos also not forget hisgrand summer holiday at MartharsquosVineyard While tens of millions of Americansstruggle this Christmas to pay the mortgage andput food on the table for their families theleader of the free world will be enjoying afortnight of luxury ndash heavily subsidised at theirexpense It is a further demonstration of an out-of-touch
presidency with an entitlement mentality onethat treats American taxpayers as a money-printing machine It is little wonder that over 70per cent of Americans believe their country ismoving down the wrong track (
1 according to RealClear Politics) presided over by a liberal elite that runs up mountains ofdebt for future generations to bear
Speculation drives up food prices as bankersgamble on hunger
1 Frederick Kaufman
Tuesday 20 December 2011
Bankers hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds are gambling on hunger by speculatingon food supply Global regulators should step in to stop them
High-frequency traders and momentum-driven hedge funds made it their business to speculate onfood in 2011 Photograph Tim WimborneReuters
Last year the price of global food floated high as ever Thats bad news for most of us but not forthose who trade commodities In fact 2011 was a great year for the traders who thrive on badnews currency woes drought flood freeze fire and all other manifestations of imminentapocalypse
2011 was a wild ride One spring morning cocoa futures dropped 12 in less than a minuteCorn ascended to all-time peaks and sugar fluctuated more in one day than it used to in a monthHoward Schultz CEO of Starbucks railed against speculators in coffee while PepsiCo forecastits own medium-term commodity cost increases to exceed $1bn All of which meant a bumpercrop for the worlds commodity exchanges ndash even those that used to be backwaters like theKansas City Board of Trade and the Minneapolis Grain Exchange both of which recorded theirhighest electronic trading volumes in history
It was a volatile year and the volatility posed problems for the food industry Faced with a high-stakes game of price-shifting basic ingredients the worlds largest food processors and retailersput out the call for maths PhDs and economic modellers to theorise and implement ever-more
complex risk-management strategiesjust so they could keep up with thesecond-by-second spikes and dips ofgrain and livestock futures In themeantime high-frequency tradersand momentum-driven hedge fundsmade it their business to speculate onfood There were plenty of ways toget in on the action but as anincreasingly complex amalgam offood-based commodity derivativespiled one on top of the other themore difficult it became to perceive what it was that lay at the bottom of the speculative scrumWhat drove the global food market in 2011 ndash other than those old faithfuls fear and greed I putin a call to Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam of the New England Complex Systems Institute (Necsi)to see if he might have an answer
Necsi based in Cambridge draws on fields as various as maths physics and computer science toprovide new perspectives on ndash and perhaps even solve ndash pressing problems in economicshealthcare international development and military and ethnic violence Last year Bar-Yam andhis colleagues published a paper called The Food Crises A Quantitative Model of FoodPrices Including Speculators and Ethanol Conversion in which the Necsi crewmathematically isolated and quantified the effects of speculation as a driving force behind thebull market in global food derivatives
Prices have been way out of equilibrium in 2011 Bar-Yam told me The bubble has not burstyet
According to Bar-Yam the international thirst for biofuels has put a strain on arable landpreviously reserved for food production At the same time as the rise of the biofuel mandate therise of investable commodity indexes and other electronically traded funds has offered investorsof all stripes a chance to sink their cash in a sparkling new casino of derivative products As a
result an ever-flowing spring ofspeculative capital sustains the status quo
But just as food is no ordinary widgetspeculation in commodity markets is notsimply a matter of financial predation Thehigh prices of food have resulted inaccumulations of inventories at the sametime as people cant afford food said Bar-Yam who noted that the Arab spring wastriggered by the food-price bubble In factNecsis quantitative model of speculationpredicted the uprisings in Tunisia Libyaand Egypt and warned that if food prices
remain inflated riots and revolutionswill go global sometime between July2012 and August 2013
We are at a critical point said Bar-Yam We dont have a stay-the-course option right now
He believes the time has come forglobal regulators to step in andmanage the global market Their firsttask would be to guaranteetransparency and make publicinformation previously shrouded insecrecy ndash such as who holds the biggest stakes in global commodities Transparent accounting
practices would have made the disappearanceof $12bn worth of customer money fromthe books of MF Global less a matter ofsleight of hand and more a matter ofinternational crime
The second part of the speculation solutionhinges on a return to traditional positionlimits in commodities limits enforced byinternational laws geared to stop bankershedge funds and sovereign wealth funds fromgoing long on the worlds food supply and ineffect gambling on hunger
Nothing influences financial regulators likeequations so the reforms we can look
forward to in 2012 will ultimately depend on the numbers Which is a mixed blessing Onereason people dont want to understand the math is the deafness of those who are making themoney said Bar-Yam But the old mathematics is manifestly wrong
and allied vessels - such as the one that occurred in March 2009 when a flotilla of Chinese navalvessels surrounded a US anti-submarine warfare surveillance ship the Impeccable and almostprecipitated a shooting incident As more warships circulate through these waters in anincreasingly provocative fashion the risk that such an incident will result in something far moreexplosive can only grow
Greater reliance on the dirtiest of energies will result in increased greenhouse gasemissions and a multitude of other environmental hazards
Nor will the potential risks and costs of such a military-first policy aimed at China be restrictedto Asia In the drive to promote greater US self-sufficiency in energy output the Obamaadministration is giving its approval to production techniques - Arctic drilling deep-offshoredrilling and hydraulic fracturing - that are guaranteed to lead to further Deepwater Horizon-styleenvironmental catastrophe at home
Greater reliance on Canadian tar sands thedirtiest of energies will result in increasedgreenhouse gas emissions and a multitude ofother environmental hazards while deepAtlantic oil production off the Brazilian coastand elsewhere has its own set of grim dangers
All of this ensures that environmentallymilitarily and economically we will findourselves in a more not less perilous worldThe desire to turn away from disastrous landwars in the Greater Middle East to deal with keyissues now simmering in Asia is understandablebut choosing a strategy that puts such an emphasis on military dominance and provocation isbound to provoke a response in kind It is hardly a prudent path to head down nor will it in thelong run advance Americas interests at a time when global economic cooperation is crucialSacrificing the environment to achieve greater energy independence makes no more sense
A new Cold War in Asia and a hemispheric energy policy that could endanger the planet its afatal brew that should be reconsidered before the slide toward confrontation and environmentaldisaster becomes irreversible You dont have to be a seer to know that this is not the definition ofgood statesmanship but of the march of folly
Michael Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and theauthor most recently of Rising Powers Shrinking Planet
A version of this article was first published on Tom Dispatch
The views expressed in this article are the authors own and do not necessarily reflect AlJazeeras editorial policy
Barack Obamarsquos big government vacation thepresident adds nearly $4 million to the nationaldebt with his lavish Hawaiian holiday By
1 Nile Gardiner
December 19th 2011
Around $4 million (pound26 million) ndash theexpected total cost to the US taxpayer of theObama Christmas family vacation to Hawaii
1 according to the Hawaii Reporter (hattip Rob Bluey at The Foundry) This is anastonishing amount of public money to bespending in an age of austerity ndash when thepresident is supposed to be leading efforts tocut the US budget deficit the largest sinceWorld War Two and a towering $15 trillionnational debt
Hawaii Reporter research shows the totalcost for the Presidentrsquos visit for taxpayersfar exceeded $15 million in 2010 ndash but iseven more costly this year because heextended his vacation by three days andthe cost for Air Force One travel has jumped since last assessed in 2000 In additionHawaii Reporter was able to obtain more specifics about the executive expenditures
The total cost (based on what is known) for the 17-day vacation roundtrip vacation toHawaii for the President his family and staff has climbed to more than $4 million
This $4 million figure is nearly 100 times the average annual salary of an American workerwhich currently stands at $41673 The HawaiiReporter calculates that travel costs alone for thepresident and his entourage via Air Force One (plus aseparate trip for Michelle Obama who has traveled inadvance) in addition to a United States Air Force C-17 cargo aircraft to transport the presidential limoshelicopters and other support equipment amounts toa whopping $3629622 Housing for security staffcosts an estimated $151200 and luxurious hotelrooms for the presidentrsquos 24-strong staff a further$72216 Based on these figures the total cost to the
federal US taxpayer (and the additionalburden on the national debt) is a staggering$3853038 If you add in local taxpayercosts of $260000 (including police overtimeand city ambulances) the total publicexpense is $4113038
The story has of course been ignored by theliberal-dominated mainstream media whichinevitably turns a blind eye to abuses ofpower by the Obama presidency You canimagine the outrage that would have greetedGeorge W Bush if had tried this kind of stuntduring his time in office He would probablyhave been burned at the stake on the pages of
The New York Times and endlessly condemned on network television
Like the vast majority of Americans Barack Obama should be prepared to make sacrifices notleast when hersquos spending other peoplersquos money Is it too much to ask the president to vacation atCamp David in Maryland instead of flying nearly 5000 miles to Hawaii Once again he isdisplaying a let-them-eat-cake attitude at a time of mass unemployment stagnant housingmarkets and growing poverty
For President Obama even his vacations have become a vulgar symbol of big government excessand over-spending ndash letrsquos also not forget hisgrand summer holiday at MartharsquosVineyard While tens of millions of Americansstruggle this Christmas to pay the mortgage andput food on the table for their families theleader of the free world will be enjoying afortnight of luxury ndash heavily subsidised at theirexpense It is a further demonstration of an out-of-touch
presidency with an entitlement mentality onethat treats American taxpayers as a money-printing machine It is little wonder that over 70per cent of Americans believe their country ismoving down the wrong track (
1 according to RealClear Politics) presided over by a liberal elite that runs up mountains ofdebt for future generations to bear
Speculation drives up food prices as bankersgamble on hunger
1 Frederick Kaufman
Tuesday 20 December 2011
Bankers hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds are gambling on hunger by speculatingon food supply Global regulators should step in to stop them
High-frequency traders and momentum-driven hedge funds made it their business to speculate onfood in 2011 Photograph Tim WimborneReuters
Last year the price of global food floated high as ever Thats bad news for most of us but not forthose who trade commodities In fact 2011 was a great year for the traders who thrive on badnews currency woes drought flood freeze fire and all other manifestations of imminentapocalypse
2011 was a wild ride One spring morning cocoa futures dropped 12 in less than a minuteCorn ascended to all-time peaks and sugar fluctuated more in one day than it used to in a monthHoward Schultz CEO of Starbucks railed against speculators in coffee while PepsiCo forecastits own medium-term commodity cost increases to exceed $1bn All of which meant a bumpercrop for the worlds commodity exchanges ndash even those that used to be backwaters like theKansas City Board of Trade and the Minneapolis Grain Exchange both of which recorded theirhighest electronic trading volumes in history
It was a volatile year and the volatility posed problems for the food industry Faced with a high-stakes game of price-shifting basic ingredients the worlds largest food processors and retailersput out the call for maths PhDs and economic modellers to theorise and implement ever-more
complex risk-management strategiesjust so they could keep up with thesecond-by-second spikes and dips ofgrain and livestock futures In themeantime high-frequency tradersand momentum-driven hedge fundsmade it their business to speculate onfood There were plenty of ways toget in on the action but as anincreasingly complex amalgam offood-based commodity derivativespiled one on top of the other themore difficult it became to perceive what it was that lay at the bottom of the speculative scrumWhat drove the global food market in 2011 ndash other than those old faithfuls fear and greed I putin a call to Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam of the New England Complex Systems Institute (Necsi)to see if he might have an answer
Necsi based in Cambridge draws on fields as various as maths physics and computer science toprovide new perspectives on ndash and perhaps even solve ndash pressing problems in economicshealthcare international development and military and ethnic violence Last year Bar-Yam andhis colleagues published a paper called The Food Crises A Quantitative Model of FoodPrices Including Speculators and Ethanol Conversion in which the Necsi crewmathematically isolated and quantified the effects of speculation as a driving force behind thebull market in global food derivatives
Prices have been way out of equilibrium in 2011 Bar-Yam told me The bubble has not burstyet
According to Bar-Yam the international thirst for biofuels has put a strain on arable landpreviously reserved for food production At the same time as the rise of the biofuel mandate therise of investable commodity indexes and other electronically traded funds has offered investorsof all stripes a chance to sink their cash in a sparkling new casino of derivative products As a
result an ever-flowing spring ofspeculative capital sustains the status quo
But just as food is no ordinary widgetspeculation in commodity markets is notsimply a matter of financial predation Thehigh prices of food have resulted inaccumulations of inventories at the sametime as people cant afford food said Bar-Yam who noted that the Arab spring wastriggered by the food-price bubble In factNecsis quantitative model of speculationpredicted the uprisings in Tunisia Libyaand Egypt and warned that if food prices
remain inflated riots and revolutionswill go global sometime between July2012 and August 2013
We are at a critical point said Bar-Yam We dont have a stay-the-course option right now
He believes the time has come forglobal regulators to step in andmanage the global market Their firsttask would be to guaranteetransparency and make publicinformation previously shrouded insecrecy ndash such as who holds the biggest stakes in global commodities Transparent accounting
practices would have made the disappearanceof $12bn worth of customer money fromthe books of MF Global less a matter ofsleight of hand and more a matter ofinternational crime
The second part of the speculation solutionhinges on a return to traditional positionlimits in commodities limits enforced byinternational laws geared to stop bankershedge funds and sovereign wealth funds fromgoing long on the worlds food supply and ineffect gambling on hunger
Nothing influences financial regulators likeequations so the reforms we can look
forward to in 2012 will ultimately depend on the numbers Which is a mixed blessing Onereason people dont want to understand the math is the deafness of those who are making themoney said Bar-Yam But the old mathematics is manifestly wrong
Barack Obamarsquos big government vacation thepresident adds nearly $4 million to the nationaldebt with his lavish Hawaiian holiday By
1 Nile Gardiner
December 19th 2011
Around $4 million (pound26 million) ndash theexpected total cost to the US taxpayer of theObama Christmas family vacation to Hawaii
1 according to the Hawaii Reporter (hattip Rob Bluey at The Foundry) This is anastonishing amount of public money to bespending in an age of austerity ndash when thepresident is supposed to be leading efforts tocut the US budget deficit the largest sinceWorld War Two and a towering $15 trillionnational debt
Hawaii Reporter research shows the totalcost for the Presidentrsquos visit for taxpayersfar exceeded $15 million in 2010 ndash but iseven more costly this year because heextended his vacation by three days andthe cost for Air Force One travel has jumped since last assessed in 2000 In additionHawaii Reporter was able to obtain more specifics about the executive expenditures
The total cost (based on what is known) for the 17-day vacation roundtrip vacation toHawaii for the President his family and staff has climbed to more than $4 million
This $4 million figure is nearly 100 times the average annual salary of an American workerwhich currently stands at $41673 The HawaiiReporter calculates that travel costs alone for thepresident and his entourage via Air Force One (plus aseparate trip for Michelle Obama who has traveled inadvance) in addition to a United States Air Force C-17 cargo aircraft to transport the presidential limoshelicopters and other support equipment amounts toa whopping $3629622 Housing for security staffcosts an estimated $151200 and luxurious hotelrooms for the presidentrsquos 24-strong staff a further$72216 Based on these figures the total cost to the
federal US taxpayer (and the additionalburden on the national debt) is a staggering$3853038 If you add in local taxpayercosts of $260000 (including police overtimeand city ambulances) the total publicexpense is $4113038
The story has of course been ignored by theliberal-dominated mainstream media whichinevitably turns a blind eye to abuses ofpower by the Obama presidency You canimagine the outrage that would have greetedGeorge W Bush if had tried this kind of stuntduring his time in office He would probablyhave been burned at the stake on the pages of
The New York Times and endlessly condemned on network television
Like the vast majority of Americans Barack Obama should be prepared to make sacrifices notleast when hersquos spending other peoplersquos money Is it too much to ask the president to vacation atCamp David in Maryland instead of flying nearly 5000 miles to Hawaii Once again he isdisplaying a let-them-eat-cake attitude at a time of mass unemployment stagnant housingmarkets and growing poverty
For President Obama even his vacations have become a vulgar symbol of big government excessand over-spending ndash letrsquos also not forget hisgrand summer holiday at MartharsquosVineyard While tens of millions of Americansstruggle this Christmas to pay the mortgage andput food on the table for their families theleader of the free world will be enjoying afortnight of luxury ndash heavily subsidised at theirexpense It is a further demonstration of an out-of-touch
presidency with an entitlement mentality onethat treats American taxpayers as a money-printing machine It is little wonder that over 70per cent of Americans believe their country ismoving down the wrong track (
1 according to RealClear Politics) presided over by a liberal elite that runs up mountains ofdebt for future generations to bear
Speculation drives up food prices as bankersgamble on hunger
1 Frederick Kaufman
Tuesday 20 December 2011
Bankers hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds are gambling on hunger by speculatingon food supply Global regulators should step in to stop them
High-frequency traders and momentum-driven hedge funds made it their business to speculate onfood in 2011 Photograph Tim WimborneReuters
Last year the price of global food floated high as ever Thats bad news for most of us but not forthose who trade commodities In fact 2011 was a great year for the traders who thrive on badnews currency woes drought flood freeze fire and all other manifestations of imminentapocalypse
2011 was a wild ride One spring morning cocoa futures dropped 12 in less than a minuteCorn ascended to all-time peaks and sugar fluctuated more in one day than it used to in a monthHoward Schultz CEO of Starbucks railed against speculators in coffee while PepsiCo forecastits own medium-term commodity cost increases to exceed $1bn All of which meant a bumpercrop for the worlds commodity exchanges ndash even those that used to be backwaters like theKansas City Board of Trade and the Minneapolis Grain Exchange both of which recorded theirhighest electronic trading volumes in history
It was a volatile year and the volatility posed problems for the food industry Faced with a high-stakes game of price-shifting basic ingredients the worlds largest food processors and retailersput out the call for maths PhDs and economic modellers to theorise and implement ever-more
complex risk-management strategiesjust so they could keep up with thesecond-by-second spikes and dips ofgrain and livestock futures In themeantime high-frequency tradersand momentum-driven hedge fundsmade it their business to speculate onfood There were plenty of ways toget in on the action but as anincreasingly complex amalgam offood-based commodity derivativespiled one on top of the other themore difficult it became to perceive what it was that lay at the bottom of the speculative scrumWhat drove the global food market in 2011 ndash other than those old faithfuls fear and greed I putin a call to Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam of the New England Complex Systems Institute (Necsi)to see if he might have an answer
Necsi based in Cambridge draws on fields as various as maths physics and computer science toprovide new perspectives on ndash and perhaps even solve ndash pressing problems in economicshealthcare international development and military and ethnic violence Last year Bar-Yam andhis colleagues published a paper called The Food Crises A Quantitative Model of FoodPrices Including Speculators and Ethanol Conversion in which the Necsi crewmathematically isolated and quantified the effects of speculation as a driving force behind thebull market in global food derivatives
Prices have been way out of equilibrium in 2011 Bar-Yam told me The bubble has not burstyet
According to Bar-Yam the international thirst for biofuels has put a strain on arable landpreviously reserved for food production At the same time as the rise of the biofuel mandate therise of investable commodity indexes and other electronically traded funds has offered investorsof all stripes a chance to sink their cash in a sparkling new casino of derivative products As a
result an ever-flowing spring ofspeculative capital sustains the status quo
But just as food is no ordinary widgetspeculation in commodity markets is notsimply a matter of financial predation Thehigh prices of food have resulted inaccumulations of inventories at the sametime as people cant afford food said Bar-Yam who noted that the Arab spring wastriggered by the food-price bubble In factNecsis quantitative model of speculationpredicted the uprisings in Tunisia Libyaand Egypt and warned that if food prices
remain inflated riots and revolutionswill go global sometime between July2012 and August 2013
We are at a critical point said Bar-Yam We dont have a stay-the-course option right now
He believes the time has come forglobal regulators to step in andmanage the global market Their firsttask would be to guaranteetransparency and make publicinformation previously shrouded insecrecy ndash such as who holds the biggest stakes in global commodities Transparent accounting
practices would have made the disappearanceof $12bn worth of customer money fromthe books of MF Global less a matter ofsleight of hand and more a matter ofinternational crime
The second part of the speculation solutionhinges on a return to traditional positionlimits in commodities limits enforced byinternational laws geared to stop bankershedge funds and sovereign wealth funds fromgoing long on the worlds food supply and ineffect gambling on hunger
Nothing influences financial regulators likeequations so the reforms we can look
forward to in 2012 will ultimately depend on the numbers Which is a mixed blessing Onereason people dont want to understand the math is the deafness of those who are making themoney said Bar-Yam But the old mathematics is manifestly wrong
federal US taxpayer (and the additionalburden on the national debt) is a staggering$3853038 If you add in local taxpayercosts of $260000 (including police overtimeand city ambulances) the total publicexpense is $4113038
The story has of course been ignored by theliberal-dominated mainstream media whichinevitably turns a blind eye to abuses ofpower by the Obama presidency You canimagine the outrage that would have greetedGeorge W Bush if had tried this kind of stuntduring his time in office He would probablyhave been burned at the stake on the pages of
The New York Times and endlessly condemned on network television
Like the vast majority of Americans Barack Obama should be prepared to make sacrifices notleast when hersquos spending other peoplersquos money Is it too much to ask the president to vacation atCamp David in Maryland instead of flying nearly 5000 miles to Hawaii Once again he isdisplaying a let-them-eat-cake attitude at a time of mass unemployment stagnant housingmarkets and growing poverty
For President Obama even his vacations have become a vulgar symbol of big government excessand over-spending ndash letrsquos also not forget hisgrand summer holiday at MartharsquosVineyard While tens of millions of Americansstruggle this Christmas to pay the mortgage andput food on the table for their families theleader of the free world will be enjoying afortnight of luxury ndash heavily subsidised at theirexpense It is a further demonstration of an out-of-touch
presidency with an entitlement mentality onethat treats American taxpayers as a money-printing machine It is little wonder that over 70per cent of Americans believe their country ismoving down the wrong track (
1 according to RealClear Politics) presided over by a liberal elite that runs up mountains ofdebt for future generations to bear
Speculation drives up food prices as bankersgamble on hunger
1 Frederick Kaufman
Tuesday 20 December 2011
Bankers hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds are gambling on hunger by speculatingon food supply Global regulators should step in to stop them
High-frequency traders and momentum-driven hedge funds made it their business to speculate onfood in 2011 Photograph Tim WimborneReuters
Last year the price of global food floated high as ever Thats bad news for most of us but not forthose who trade commodities In fact 2011 was a great year for the traders who thrive on badnews currency woes drought flood freeze fire and all other manifestations of imminentapocalypse
2011 was a wild ride One spring morning cocoa futures dropped 12 in less than a minuteCorn ascended to all-time peaks and sugar fluctuated more in one day than it used to in a monthHoward Schultz CEO of Starbucks railed against speculators in coffee while PepsiCo forecastits own medium-term commodity cost increases to exceed $1bn All of which meant a bumpercrop for the worlds commodity exchanges ndash even those that used to be backwaters like theKansas City Board of Trade and the Minneapolis Grain Exchange both of which recorded theirhighest electronic trading volumes in history
It was a volatile year and the volatility posed problems for the food industry Faced with a high-stakes game of price-shifting basic ingredients the worlds largest food processors and retailersput out the call for maths PhDs and economic modellers to theorise and implement ever-more
complex risk-management strategiesjust so they could keep up with thesecond-by-second spikes and dips ofgrain and livestock futures In themeantime high-frequency tradersand momentum-driven hedge fundsmade it their business to speculate onfood There were plenty of ways toget in on the action but as anincreasingly complex amalgam offood-based commodity derivativespiled one on top of the other themore difficult it became to perceive what it was that lay at the bottom of the speculative scrumWhat drove the global food market in 2011 ndash other than those old faithfuls fear and greed I putin a call to Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam of the New England Complex Systems Institute (Necsi)to see if he might have an answer
Necsi based in Cambridge draws on fields as various as maths physics and computer science toprovide new perspectives on ndash and perhaps even solve ndash pressing problems in economicshealthcare international development and military and ethnic violence Last year Bar-Yam andhis colleagues published a paper called The Food Crises A Quantitative Model of FoodPrices Including Speculators and Ethanol Conversion in which the Necsi crewmathematically isolated and quantified the effects of speculation as a driving force behind thebull market in global food derivatives
Prices have been way out of equilibrium in 2011 Bar-Yam told me The bubble has not burstyet
According to Bar-Yam the international thirst for biofuels has put a strain on arable landpreviously reserved for food production At the same time as the rise of the biofuel mandate therise of investable commodity indexes and other electronically traded funds has offered investorsof all stripes a chance to sink their cash in a sparkling new casino of derivative products As a
result an ever-flowing spring ofspeculative capital sustains the status quo
But just as food is no ordinary widgetspeculation in commodity markets is notsimply a matter of financial predation Thehigh prices of food have resulted inaccumulations of inventories at the sametime as people cant afford food said Bar-Yam who noted that the Arab spring wastriggered by the food-price bubble In factNecsis quantitative model of speculationpredicted the uprisings in Tunisia Libyaand Egypt and warned that if food prices
remain inflated riots and revolutionswill go global sometime between July2012 and August 2013
We are at a critical point said Bar-Yam We dont have a stay-the-course option right now
He believes the time has come forglobal regulators to step in andmanage the global market Their firsttask would be to guaranteetransparency and make publicinformation previously shrouded insecrecy ndash such as who holds the biggest stakes in global commodities Transparent accounting
practices would have made the disappearanceof $12bn worth of customer money fromthe books of MF Global less a matter ofsleight of hand and more a matter ofinternational crime
The second part of the speculation solutionhinges on a return to traditional positionlimits in commodities limits enforced byinternational laws geared to stop bankershedge funds and sovereign wealth funds fromgoing long on the worlds food supply and ineffect gambling on hunger
Nothing influences financial regulators likeequations so the reforms we can look
forward to in 2012 will ultimately depend on the numbers Which is a mixed blessing Onereason people dont want to understand the math is the deafness of those who are making themoney said Bar-Yam But the old mathematics is manifestly wrong
Speculation drives up food prices as bankersgamble on hunger
1 Frederick Kaufman
Tuesday 20 December 2011
Bankers hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds are gambling on hunger by speculatingon food supply Global regulators should step in to stop them
High-frequency traders and momentum-driven hedge funds made it their business to speculate onfood in 2011 Photograph Tim WimborneReuters
Last year the price of global food floated high as ever Thats bad news for most of us but not forthose who trade commodities In fact 2011 was a great year for the traders who thrive on badnews currency woes drought flood freeze fire and all other manifestations of imminentapocalypse
2011 was a wild ride One spring morning cocoa futures dropped 12 in less than a minuteCorn ascended to all-time peaks and sugar fluctuated more in one day than it used to in a monthHoward Schultz CEO of Starbucks railed against speculators in coffee while PepsiCo forecastits own medium-term commodity cost increases to exceed $1bn All of which meant a bumpercrop for the worlds commodity exchanges ndash even those that used to be backwaters like theKansas City Board of Trade and the Minneapolis Grain Exchange both of which recorded theirhighest electronic trading volumes in history
It was a volatile year and the volatility posed problems for the food industry Faced with a high-stakes game of price-shifting basic ingredients the worlds largest food processors and retailersput out the call for maths PhDs and economic modellers to theorise and implement ever-more
complex risk-management strategiesjust so they could keep up with thesecond-by-second spikes and dips ofgrain and livestock futures In themeantime high-frequency tradersand momentum-driven hedge fundsmade it their business to speculate onfood There were plenty of ways toget in on the action but as anincreasingly complex amalgam offood-based commodity derivativespiled one on top of the other themore difficult it became to perceive what it was that lay at the bottom of the speculative scrumWhat drove the global food market in 2011 ndash other than those old faithfuls fear and greed I putin a call to Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam of the New England Complex Systems Institute (Necsi)to see if he might have an answer
Necsi based in Cambridge draws on fields as various as maths physics and computer science toprovide new perspectives on ndash and perhaps even solve ndash pressing problems in economicshealthcare international development and military and ethnic violence Last year Bar-Yam andhis colleagues published a paper called The Food Crises A Quantitative Model of FoodPrices Including Speculators and Ethanol Conversion in which the Necsi crewmathematically isolated and quantified the effects of speculation as a driving force behind thebull market in global food derivatives
Prices have been way out of equilibrium in 2011 Bar-Yam told me The bubble has not burstyet
According to Bar-Yam the international thirst for biofuels has put a strain on arable landpreviously reserved for food production At the same time as the rise of the biofuel mandate therise of investable commodity indexes and other electronically traded funds has offered investorsof all stripes a chance to sink their cash in a sparkling new casino of derivative products As a
result an ever-flowing spring ofspeculative capital sustains the status quo
But just as food is no ordinary widgetspeculation in commodity markets is notsimply a matter of financial predation Thehigh prices of food have resulted inaccumulations of inventories at the sametime as people cant afford food said Bar-Yam who noted that the Arab spring wastriggered by the food-price bubble In factNecsis quantitative model of speculationpredicted the uprisings in Tunisia Libyaand Egypt and warned that if food prices
remain inflated riots and revolutionswill go global sometime between July2012 and August 2013
We are at a critical point said Bar-Yam We dont have a stay-the-course option right now
He believes the time has come forglobal regulators to step in andmanage the global market Their firsttask would be to guaranteetransparency and make publicinformation previously shrouded insecrecy ndash such as who holds the biggest stakes in global commodities Transparent accounting
practices would have made the disappearanceof $12bn worth of customer money fromthe books of MF Global less a matter ofsleight of hand and more a matter ofinternational crime
The second part of the speculation solutionhinges on a return to traditional positionlimits in commodities limits enforced byinternational laws geared to stop bankershedge funds and sovereign wealth funds fromgoing long on the worlds food supply and ineffect gambling on hunger
Nothing influences financial regulators likeequations so the reforms we can look
forward to in 2012 will ultimately depend on the numbers Which is a mixed blessing Onereason people dont want to understand the math is the deafness of those who are making themoney said Bar-Yam But the old mathematics is manifestly wrong
complex risk-management strategiesjust so they could keep up with thesecond-by-second spikes and dips ofgrain and livestock futures In themeantime high-frequency tradersand momentum-driven hedge fundsmade it their business to speculate onfood There were plenty of ways toget in on the action but as anincreasingly complex amalgam offood-based commodity derivativespiled one on top of the other themore difficult it became to perceive what it was that lay at the bottom of the speculative scrumWhat drove the global food market in 2011 ndash other than those old faithfuls fear and greed I putin a call to Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam of the New England Complex Systems Institute (Necsi)to see if he might have an answer
Necsi based in Cambridge draws on fields as various as maths physics and computer science toprovide new perspectives on ndash and perhaps even solve ndash pressing problems in economicshealthcare international development and military and ethnic violence Last year Bar-Yam andhis colleagues published a paper called The Food Crises A Quantitative Model of FoodPrices Including Speculators and Ethanol Conversion in which the Necsi crewmathematically isolated and quantified the effects of speculation as a driving force behind thebull market in global food derivatives
Prices have been way out of equilibrium in 2011 Bar-Yam told me The bubble has not burstyet
According to Bar-Yam the international thirst for biofuels has put a strain on arable landpreviously reserved for food production At the same time as the rise of the biofuel mandate therise of investable commodity indexes and other electronically traded funds has offered investorsof all stripes a chance to sink their cash in a sparkling new casino of derivative products As a
result an ever-flowing spring ofspeculative capital sustains the status quo
But just as food is no ordinary widgetspeculation in commodity markets is notsimply a matter of financial predation Thehigh prices of food have resulted inaccumulations of inventories at the sametime as people cant afford food said Bar-Yam who noted that the Arab spring wastriggered by the food-price bubble In factNecsis quantitative model of speculationpredicted the uprisings in Tunisia Libyaand Egypt and warned that if food prices
remain inflated riots and revolutionswill go global sometime between July2012 and August 2013
We are at a critical point said Bar-Yam We dont have a stay-the-course option right now
He believes the time has come forglobal regulators to step in andmanage the global market Their firsttask would be to guaranteetransparency and make publicinformation previously shrouded insecrecy ndash such as who holds the biggest stakes in global commodities Transparent accounting
practices would have made the disappearanceof $12bn worth of customer money fromthe books of MF Global less a matter ofsleight of hand and more a matter ofinternational crime
The second part of the speculation solutionhinges on a return to traditional positionlimits in commodities limits enforced byinternational laws geared to stop bankershedge funds and sovereign wealth funds fromgoing long on the worlds food supply and ineffect gambling on hunger
Nothing influences financial regulators likeequations so the reforms we can look
forward to in 2012 will ultimately depend on the numbers Which is a mixed blessing Onereason people dont want to understand the math is the deafness of those who are making themoney said Bar-Yam But the old mathematics is manifestly wrong
remain inflated riots and revolutionswill go global sometime between July2012 and August 2013
We are at a critical point said Bar-Yam We dont have a stay-the-course option right now
He believes the time has come forglobal regulators to step in andmanage the global market Their firsttask would be to guaranteetransparency and make publicinformation previously shrouded insecrecy ndash such as who holds the biggest stakes in global commodities Transparent accounting
practices would have made the disappearanceof $12bn worth of customer money fromthe books of MF Global less a matter ofsleight of hand and more a matter ofinternational crime
The second part of the speculation solutionhinges on a return to traditional positionlimits in commodities limits enforced byinternational laws geared to stop bankershedge funds and sovereign wealth funds fromgoing long on the worlds food supply and ineffect gambling on hunger
Nothing influences financial regulators likeequations so the reforms we can look
forward to in 2012 will ultimately depend on the numbers Which is a mixed blessing Onereason people dont want to understand the math is the deafness of those who are making themoney said Bar-Yam But the old mathematics is manifestly wrong