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The SWAN Strategy: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income in 2019. By Mark Skousen Presidential Fellow, Chapman University Editor, Forecasts & Strategies www.markskousen.com

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Page 1: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

The SWAN Strategy:A Conservative Way to Beat the Market

and Earn High Income in 2019.

By Mark Skousen

Presidential Fellow,

Chapman University

Editor, Forecasts & Strategies

www.markskousen.com

Page 2: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

Benjamin Franklin

Benjamin Franklin’s Three

Virtues:

Industry, Thrift, Prudence

“There is much revenue in

economy, and no revenue

is sufficient without

economy.”

Page 3: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

The Richest Man in Babylon

“In Old Babylon there once lived a certain very rich man named Arkad. Far and wide he was famed for his great wealth. Also was he famed for his liberality. He was generous in his charities. He was generous with his family. He was liberal in his ownexpenses. But nevertheless each year his wealth increased more rapidly than he spent it.”

Page 4: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

Are Americans Saving Enough?

Page 5: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

Is Investing a Loser’s Game?

Source: Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC., Bloomberg, MSCI, Standard & Poor's, Russell, HFRI, BofA Merrill Lynch,

Dalbar, FHFA ,FRB, FTSE. Total Returns in USD. Average Investor returns are represented by Dalbar's investor returns

which represent the change in total mutual fund assets after excluding sales, redemptions and exchanges.

Page 6: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

1. “Cherry Picking” – buying your favorite

stocks in hopes of beating the market

2. “Trading” – buying and selling to avoid a

bear market

The Two Most Alluring but

High-Risk Strategies by Individual Investors

Page 7: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

“Wall Street exaggerates everything.”

“The business of investing is not the

same as investing in a business.”

Page 8: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

Wall Street vs. Main Street – 1990-2018

Page 9: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

My Favorite Way to Beat the Market

Page 11: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

“"Mother of all bull markets”

Page 12: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

Dividend-Paying vs. Non Dividend-Paying Stocks

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Returns of Russell 1000 Stocks by Dividend Policy, 1/31/1979 - 6/30/2011Monthly cap-weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks

Div Growers Div Cutters Non Div Payers Div Payers Russell 1 000

Page 13: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

Sleep Well Stocks

1. Stocks that are consistently profitable in a

growing industry

2. Stocks that enjoy an above-average

dividend yield.

3. Stocks that have a rising dividend policy.

Page 14: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

Rising Dividends Lead to High Total Return

Rising dividend stocks and funds.

Lowell Miller’s formula:

“investing with peace of mind.”

High

Quality

Growth

of Yield

High

YieldHigh Total

Return+ =+

Page 15: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

Main Street Capital (MAIN)

Page 16: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

Omega Healthcare (OHI)

Page 17: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

Enterprise Products (EPD)

Page 18: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

Microsoft (MSFT)

Page 19: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

Flying Five Performance Since 2009

(August to August)

Looking back since 2009, the 30 Dow average is ahead 190%, but the Flying

Five has almost quadrupled its value, up 387% (including dividends for both).

Year    Dow 30 Flying Five2009-10  + 9% + 19%

2010-11  + 19% + 28%

2011-12  + 5% + 18%

2012-13  + 26% + 29%

2013-14  + 13% + 21%

2014-15  + 7% + 7%

2015-16  + 9% + 26%

2016-17  + 10% + 10%

2017-18  + 16% + 20%

2018-19  - 4% + 10%

Page 20: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

Flying Five Stocks

Every August, buy the five highest yielding,

lowest priced Dow stocks

Current recommendations:

1. Cisco Systems (CSCO)

2. Pfizer (PFE)

3. Verizon (VZ)

4. Coca Cola (KO)

5. Merck (MRK)

Page 21: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

Cisco Systems (CSCO)

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Pfizer (PFE)

Page 23: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

Verizon (VZ)

Page 24: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

Coca Cola (KO)

Page 25: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

Merck (MRK)

Page 26: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

Baron Growth Fund (BGRFX)

Page 27: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

Warning to Income Investors:

Beware of Panic Selling

At FreedomFest 2013,

Las Vegas, USA

“Everyone is a disciplined, long-term

investor until the market goes down.”— Steve Forbes

Page 28: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

“The big profits go to the intelligent,

careful and patient investor, not to the reckless and overeager speculator.”

‒ J. Paul Getty,

“How to Be Rich”

Profits

Page 29: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

“Do you know the only thing that gives

me pleasure? It is to see my dividends

coming in.”

‒ John D. Rockefeller

Dividends

Page 30: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

AUTOMATIC INVESTMENT PLANS (AIP)

How to Build Your Wealth Fast

1. You add to your account monthly.

2. All interest, dividends and distributions

are automatically reinvested.

3. You capture capital gains on stocks and

bonds.

Page 31: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

Maxims of Wall Street,

$20 for first copy,

$10 for all additional copies.

Free with subscription to F&S for $99.95…

Warren Buffett's

Favorite Quote

Book

Page 32: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

"It's amazing the depth of wisdom one

can find in just or one or two lines from

your wonderful book. I keep it on my

desk and refer to its for daily wisdom."

‒ Dennis Gartman

Page 33: A Conservative Way to Beat the Market and Earn High Income ...€¦ · Monthly cap- weighted geometric average of total returns of R1000 component stocks Div Growers Div Cutters Non

“The world’s largest gathering of free minds.”

Kevin "Mr. Wonderful" O'Leary

Shark Tank

The Big Debate

John “Austin Kid" Mackey

Whole Foods vs.

Conscious Capitalism Pure Greed

www.freedomfest.com