a european model-intercomparison study in support to the cafe programme on eu environmental...
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A European model-intercomparison studyin support to the CAFE programme
on EU environmental legislation
organised by
JRC-IES (coordinator), IIASA, EMEP, EUROTRAC / TNO-MEP
C. Cuvelier, P. Thunis, L. Tarrason, M. Amann
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ObjectiveObjective
To explore changes in air-quality (DELTA) in cities (CITY) due to changes in emission as predicted by atmospheric models with different scales
Deltas between: • Models• Cities• Scenarios• Scale
FocusFocus
Integrated assessment of the impact on human health and ecosystems. WHO recommendations: Long term exposure to O3 (6 month hourly) and PM (12 months daily)
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Analyzed citiesAnalyzed cities
London
Paris
Prague
Berlin
Copenhagen
Katowice
Milan
Marseille
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Participating modelsParticipating models
CHIMERE INERIS-IPSL (France) O3, PM
EMEP MSC-W O3, PM
EPISODE NILU (Norway) O3
LOTOS TNO (Netherlands) O3, PM
MUSCAT IFT (Germany) O3, PM
MUSE AUT (Greece) O3, PM
REM FU Berlin (Germany) O3, PM
OFIS AUT (Greece) O3, PM
THOR NERI (Denmark) O3
CALGRID U. Brescia (Italy) O3
MOCAGE MeteoFrance (France) O3
STEM CESI (Italy) O3
EUROS RIVM (Netherlands) O3
TRANSCHIM CORIA (France) O3
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Emission scenariosEmission scenarios
(0) 1999
(1) CLE (Current Legislation) 2010
(2) NOx MFR 2010
(Maximum Feasible Reduction)
(3) NOx (CLE+MFR)/2 2010
(4) VOC MFR 2010
(5) NOx and VOC MFR 2010
(6) PMcoarse MFR 2010
(7) PM2.5 MFR 2010
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Berlin
Katowice
London
Milan
Paris
Prague
O3: 224 model runs for 6 months
PM: 89 model runs for 12 months
Available model runsAvailable model runs
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CityDelta graphical interpretation toolCityDelta graphical interpretation tool
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Monitoring dataMonitoring data
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Validation with monitoring dataValidation with monitoring data
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Deltas comparisonDeltas comparison
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Spatial indicators & deltasSpatial indicators & deltas
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Interpretation of the resultsInterpretation of the results
• Modeling teams submit results to JRC
• JRC processes data and loads them on the Internet
• Participants evaluate their results individually with the tool
• Discussion and joint interpretation at regular CityDelta meetings
• Synthesis of conclusions for integrated assessment modelling
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Berlin Paris Milano London
1999-CLE
CLE-NOxMFR
CLE-VOCMFR
MEAN O3
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DeltasDeltas for 1999-CLE, Berlin, mean Ofor 1999-CLE, Berlin, mean O33
8 2
12 16
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DeltasDeltas for 1999-CLE, Berlin, mean Ofor 1999-CLE, Berlin, mean O33
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1 2 3 7 8 9 10 11 12 16 29
1999 CLE
Population-weighted mean OPopulation-weighted mean O33 Berlin Berlin
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Main Main iinitial nitial ffindings indings forfor long-term long-term OO33
• Emission inventories are crucial • Consistent difficulties in night time model predictions (too
high)• Day time predictions generally have smaller bias and
show less variability between models• Generally, predictions vs. measurements at finer scale
(down to 5 km) not significantly better than 50km scale– What does this have to say about policy tools? Do we
need develop tools down to street levels?
• However, NO2 predictions vs measurements are significantly better at finer scale – Does this indicate that finer scale is important for
modelling titration effects?
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• Emission inventories are crucial and uncertain• Generally models underpredict concentrations, and
have difficulties reproducing the seasonal variation of the observations– What are models missing (coarse fraction, SOA,
representation of stable conditions, etc)?– Need a deeper review of secondary/primary
components• Validation against observations (PM2.5) with chemical
composition is absolutely necessary• Further scenarios are required before PM deltas can be
analysed (CityDelta Phase 2)
Main Main iinitial nitial ffindings indings forfor PMPM
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http://rea.ei.jrc.it/netshare/thunis/citydelta