theworldin2050 - iiasa
TRANSCRIPT
The World in 2050 The Project Concept
Prof. Johan Rockström Stockholm Resilience Centre Vienna 10th of March 2015
The Shi8 from MDGs to SDGs
• Global Sustainability now Prerequisite to Eradicate Poverty and enable global economic development
• Humanity now in the Anthropocene • Earth starHng to send invoices back to the world economy
• MDGs – Development by reducing environmental impacts
• SDGs – Development within stable and resilient Planet
Proposed SDG framework – an emerging framework for a new development paradigm
From synthesis report of the Secretary-‐General on the post-‐2015 agenda
Background
One of the most pressing issues facing the global community post 2015 is how to realize the benefits of future global economic development within a safe and
just operaHng space of a stable planet.
Overall goal
Explore Sustainable Development pathways within a safe and just operaHng space on
Earth
Reconciling World development with Earth sustainability to meet the SDGs
TWI2050 What it may Become
A global analyHcal plaXorm, where leading knowledge partners on integrated world
development and Earth dynamics, join forces to provide state-‐of-‐the-‐art analyses,
assessments and scenarios of pathways to aZain the SDGs within Earth’s safe operaHng space.
A suggesHon of development objecHves
1. Enhance key decision makers´ understanding of: – ImplicaHons of Business as Usual pathways – Explore Synergies and Trade-‐offs, and Economic opportuniHes of a transiHon to sustainable development
– The requirements of desirable and feasible Sustainable Development pathways and how this translates into policy in order to meet the SDGs within planetary boundaries
– A holisHc transformaHonal narraHve. 2. An enhanced global capacity of leading insHtuHons to engage in complex systems analysis.
A suggesHon of 3 project objecHves 1. Provide the global community with the 1st generaHon of global scenarios that meet the Sustainable Development Goals within Planetary Boundaries 2. ConHnuously, develop new suite of models by integraHng exisHng world-‐class models across key sectors allowing for comparisons among alternaHve Sustainable Development-‐ Business As Usual Pathways, and develop the required analyHcal and methodological approaches to achieve this. 3. ConHnuously, explore novel, primarily descripHve approaches associated with social drivers of transformaHonal change, complemented by the analyHcal and quanHtaHve approaches and planetary boundaries context in order to develop holisHc transformaHonal narraHves
TWI 2050 will…
….serve the global community with analyses of pathways the world can take to aZain the sustainable development goals within planetary boundaries, …explore implicaHons [synergies, trade-‐offs, investments, policy reforms, equity] of successful deep transformaHons and the possible “degrees of freedom” to meet economic development goals …monitor progress and success towards their achievement. …enhance the understanding of the requirements of desirable and feasible sustainable development pathways.
TWI 2050 proposed approach is to…
…explore avenues to achieve sustainable development pathways, by back-‐casHng from desired development outcomes as defined by the SDGs, …combine recent advancements in economic modeling and Earth system science to study interacHons between economic growth and global sustainability for sustainable development (SD) pathways. …build on, and conHnually iterate, the exisHng modeling efforts of partner insHtuHons, combining models, datasets, and economic analyses, with updated assessments of future developments and costs/benefits
A key deliverable from TWI 2050 is to…
…generate the 1st generaHon of global scenarios that meet the twin objecHves of economic growth and planetary stability … feasibility, challenges and opportuniHes associated with deep transformaHve sustainable development pathways …improved evidence on magnitudes of change, synergies and trade-‐offs, policy and investment needs, equity dimensions and cost-‐benefit analyses, to all leaders involved in implemenHng the SDG framework
How?
Decided by us together at this meeHng • AIMES, Future Earth • Centre for Integrated Studies on Climate Change and the Environment • Earth League, whole Earth system modelling iniHaHve • Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC) • Indian insHtute InternaHonal Futures • Indian InsHtute of Technology (IIT) • InternaHonal Energy Agency (IEA) • InternaHonal Food Policy Research InsHtute (IFPRI) • InternaHonal InsHtute for Applied Systems Analysis • InternaHonal Monetary Fund (IMF) • InternaHonal InsHtute for Applied Systems Analaysis (IIASA) • MassachuseZs InsHtute of Technology
Cont. collaborators • NaHonal Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) • NaHonal InsHtute for Environmental Studies (NIES) • UN PopulaHon Division • UNEP-‐ World ConservaHon Monitoring Centre (UNEP-‐WCMC) • World Bank • OrganisaHon for Economic Co-‐operaHon and Development (OECD) • Potsdam InsHtute for Climate Impact Change (PIK) • PBL -‐ Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency • Stanford University • Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University • The City University of New York (CUNY) • The Earth InsHtute, Colombia University • Tsinghua University
Economic Growth and Climate Change – the convenHonal macro-‐economic approach
(Applying DICE, 2014)
2100
Entering the Realm of Unacceptable Global Climate Risks
Goal 6 [Water]
Goal 14 [Oceans/Marine systems] Nitrogen/phosphorus
Goal 13 [Climate]
Goal 15 [Ecosystems]
Goal 12 [consumpIon and producIon] waste/polluIon
Example of exploraHon
• Can we feed humanity within a Safe operaHng space of planetary boundaris? Reconciling SDGS Goals 1 [Poverty], 2 [Hunger], 3 [Health], 7 [Energy] and 8 [Economic growth], with Goals 6 [Water], 13 [Climate], 15 [Ecosystems]
Goal 1 [Poverty], Goal 2 [Hunger], Goal 3 [Health], Goals 7 [Energy], Goal 8 [Economic
Growth]
Thank you!