a federal emergency management agency september 19 - 22, 2006 west virginia urban-rural evacuation...
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Federal Emergency Management Agency
September 19 - 22, 2006
West Virginia Urban-Rural EvacuationState Planners Workshop
Conference Goals
• Identify the breadth and scope of the problem• Clarify the regional issues associated with the
problem.• Discuss regional strategies and possible
solutions to address the problem.• Identify low hanging fruit opportunities to get
work done- Collaborate on a integrated regional evacuation plan
- MOU’s between states
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Potential for an Uncontrolled Mass Evacuation of the DC Metro Area as a Result
of a Terrorist Attack:A Report of Survey Findings
West Virginia University Project Team:Brian J. Gerber, PhDJoseph R. Scotti, PhDAlan Ducatman, MD
Ronald Althouse, PhDMark Fischer, MPA
Project Focus
• Implication of a catastrophic terrorist attack in Washington, DC: Mass evacuation
• Public’s potential response
Key Research Questions
– Will Washington, D.C. metro area residents evacuate following a terrorist attack?
– If so, under what scenarios?
– If so, where might they go?
Key Findings– The public’s perceived risk of terror events is
high
– Large scale, uncontrolled self-evacuation will occur as a result of a terrorist attack
– Mass self-evacuation events are likely to be chaotic:
▪ stated target destinations are highly dispersed
▪ a large proportion of the public state awillingness to leave even absent
specific event information
Conclusion
– Planning for a large scale, chaotic evacuation into rural areas and states proximate to the DC Metro area warrants serious consideration.
Study Design
• Random-digit dial telephone survey of 800 households in the greater Washington, D.C. area
Maryland Counties:• Howard, Montgomery
Virginia Counties:• Arlington, Fairfax, Loudon, Prince William
West Virginia Counties:• Berkeley, Jefferson, Morgan
On September 11th: What Information Sources did a Respondent Use to Track the Event?
On September 11th: What Actions did Respondent Take on That Day (any that apply)?
Reported Mode of Self-Evacuation, if Evacuating From a Disaster
If Evacuating, does Respondent have a Specific Target Destination?
Distribution of Reported Target Destinations if Self-Evacuating From a Natural Disaster
Identified Evacuation Target Destinations By State of Residence
Terror Events: Perceived Risk
Q1: How likely is this event to occur in DC?
Q2: How likely is significant injury to you and family from event?
Q3: How likely are multiple events?
Reported Propensity to Self-Evacuate Presented with three types of terror
incident scenarios, respondents who said they were “very” or “somewhat likely” to leave the area immediately:
Type of Attack “Very” & “Somewhat Likely”
Nuclear 83%
Radiological 76%
Chemical 67%
Reported Propensity to Self-Evacuate
Distribution of above responses by state: No statistically significant differences between residents of MD, VA, WV
Type of Attack “Very” & “Somewhat Likely”
Nuclear 83%
Radiological 76%
Chemical 67%
Information Sources on Self-Evacuation Decisions
What would your most important sources of information be in the aftermath of an event?
- 43% - News coverage of event
- 43% - Government announcements
If there were no local news coverage of the event available, would you stay in place?
- 67% - Likely to Stay
- 33% - Likely to Leave
InferenceGiven
● the size of the population surrounding the DC area
● the reported propensity to self-evacuate, overwhelmingly by automobile,● the distribution of target destinations,● the perceived vulnerability of harm to terror attacks and anticipation of multiples attacks
Result: ● A large-scale, chaotic mass self-evacuation should be anticipated
Adherence to Shelter-in-Place and Evacuation Directives
Shelter in Place
Evacuate
Within Those Directive Adherence Numbers
Likelihood of respondent willingness to adhere to a shelter or evacuation directive – by “very likely” responses:
Type of
Attack:
Very likely to shelter in
place
Very likely to evacuate
Nuclear 60.6% 79.9%
Radiological 65.3% 77.5%
Chemical 65.9% 75.7%
Public Confidence in Evacuation Planning How much confidence do you have that the
federal government has adequate evacuation plans in place to deal with a…
A natural disaster
event?
a great amount
a moderate amount
very little
no trust at all
6.6%
36.8%
38.2%
18.5%
A terrorist event? a great amount
a moderate amount
very little
no trust at all
7.5%
36.3%
39.1%
17.1%
Conclusion: Summary ObservationsThe survey data indicate:
• Residents in the DC area express a relatively high degree of anticipated vulnerability to terror attacks
• Residents express a high propensity to self-evacuate and evacuation destinations are likely to be widely distributed geographically
• Absent available local information, a large proportion of area residents are likely to evacuate
• Residents also express low confidence in governmental evacuation planning on disaster events
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West Virginia Urban-Rural Evacuation
State Planners Workshop
WV Urban-Rural Task Force
Readiness Planning Overview
WV Urban-Rural Task ForceJames W. Spears, Cabinet Secretary
Movement Issues
• “Effects of Catastrophic Events on Transportation System Management and Operations – The Pentagon and the National Capital Region”
• “Effects of Catastrophic Events on Transportation System Management and Operations – New York City – September 11”
• “Blue Cascades III, Pacific Northwest Economic Region’s Infrastructure’s Interdependencies Tabletop Exercise”
Movement Issues
• State and Regional Disaster Airlift (SARDA)- Provide Governor & others with a means to access and utilize aviation resources.- ensure availability of aviation resources in support of survival & recovery ops
• Security Control of Air Traffic and Air Navigational Aids (SCATANA)- civil and military selective and systematic shutdown of certain air navigational aids during emergencies when advisable in the national interest.
• Emergency Security Control of Air Traffic (ESCAT)- provides for the most effective use of airspace for defense supported activities
WVURTF Mission
Identify means to:• Fulfill the Two Primary Functions of
Government:- Protect Citizens- Maintain Economy
• Support Intra-state & Regional Coordination• Establish Resource Readiness• Maintain Strategic Preparedness
JITC-East
Camp DawsonVolkstone Industrial Facility – Instrumented Small Unit CQB
Netcentric Operational
Coordination Center (NOCC)
St. Albans, WV
Live, Virtual and Constructive
Network
Memorial Tunnel
CBRNE Training and Test Range
• Camp Dawson
• Memorial Tunnel
• Netcentric Operational Coordination Center
• JISOTF (Future)
Joint Combined Interagency Battlestaff Training Facility
RSOIRECEPTION – STAGING – ONWARD MOVEMENT - INTEGRATION
• Control the Entry Points- Primary/Secondary routes “Support is there if you stay the course”- Information feed and flow (Public Radio, ITS, checkpoints)- KEEP THEM MOVING! Pass-through Movement
• Contraflow evacuation- WVDOT Emergency Operation and Personnel Support
• Secondary Routing to Support Emergency Operations- Private Airstrips- State Secondary & County Routes
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Route Management Issues
Route Management Issues• Early Warning• Traffic Control
- Choke Points- Breakdowns- Accidents- Flow
• Fuel supply• Limited Assets
- Personnel- Equipment- Highway Routes- Capacity
• Time of Year/Weather/Terrain
Regional Issues / Concerns
• What are the other state’s planning/doing?
• How do we communicate, command & control
• Deployment of resources should be maximized for effect (NO state lines…Regional Issue)
• R&R for Teams
• Families of Responders
Is there a need?
• Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said, “he has ordered a comprehensive plan for evacuating the region.”
• Chertoff said he convened a meeting with officials from as far away as West Virginia in addition to Delaware to focus on drawing up an evacuation plan for the Washington area.
…..Washington Post September 11, 2006
Where do we go from here?
• West Virginia hosted a regional meeting of states of the region to begin a collaborative process.
• The State is hosting regional planning meetings to discuss the impact of a mass evacuation on specific areas of the state.
• Continue to work together to achieve the prime objectives
Contact Information
Jimmy GianatoWV Division of Homeland Security
and Emergency Management304-558-5380