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A groupthink trap: Consensual decision-making in community forestry usersgroup- case study of Nepal
- Swati Negi
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Source: http://leaderslab.co.uk2
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I have chosen theleader to decideso why should I
waste my time in decision activities
We followconsensus-
orienteddecision making
There is noproblem in our
forest users group
Secret ballotelection create
conflicts
Social heterogeneity
Power disparity
Cultural and social norms
+
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Consensual decision makingThe Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Proposalof idea
Brainstorming
Knowledgeexchange
Deliberation
Critical evaluation
Consensus-
oriented
decision
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Low probability of
successfuloutcome
Defects in decisionoutcome
Antecedentconditions
GroupthinkSymptoms
GROUPTHINK FRAMEWORK
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LEADERSHIP
STRESS
COHESIVENESS
MOTIVATION
CONCURRENCE SEEKING
Antecedentconditions
MORALITY
INVULNERABILITY
UNANIMITY
SELF CENSORSHIP
CONFORMITY
GroupthinkSymptoms
Low qualitydecisionoutcome
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Study Area
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Research Questions
• Is there presence of antecedent conditions and symptoms of groupthink in the context of community forestry management ?
• If yes, which variables are the strongest predictors of the groupthink phenomenon among community forestry users’ groups in Nepal?
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ExperimentPost-
experimentalquestionnaire
Discussion1
Group Discussions
Each participant in eachgroup of each experiment
filled this questionnaireN= 150
WomenBAU Majority caste
Discussion2
Expert Ratings on :1. Decision process
2. Decision outcome
Data Collection
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LEADERSHIP*
STRESS
COHESIVENESS
MOTIVATION**
CONCURRENCE SEEKING
Antecedentconditions
MORALITY
INVULNERABILITY
UNANIMITY
SELF CENSORSHIP
CONFORMITY
GrouthinkSymptoms
R2 =0.05F for change in R2=2.709*
Multiple linear regression: 1
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LEADERSHIP
STRESS
COHESIVENESS
MOTIVATION**
CONCURRENCE SEEKING
Antecedentconditions
MORALITY
INVULNERABILITY
UNANIMITY
SELF CENSORSHIP
R2 =0.08F for change in R2=3.644** CONFORMITY
GrouthinkSymptoms
Multiple linear regression: 2
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LEADERSHIP
STRESS
COHESIVENESS
MOTIVATION***
CONCURRENCE SEEKING
Antecedentconditions
MORALITY
INVULNERABILITY
UNANIMITY
SELF CENSORSHIP
CONFORMITY
GrouthinkSymptoms
R2 =0.13F for change in R2=5.596***
Multiple linear regression: 3
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ANOVA: group comparison
MORALITY
INVULNERABILITY
UNANIMITY
SELF CENSORSHIP
CONFORMITY
GrouthinkSymptoms
F(1, 148) = 7.07, p = 0.008**
F(1, 148) = 10.807, p = 0.001**
LEADERSHIP
STRESS
COHESIVENESS
MOTIVATION
CONCURRENCE SEEKING
Antecedentconditions
F(1, 148) = 6.1586, p = 0.0142 *
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R2 =0.12F for change in R2=6.359***
LEADERSHIP**
STRESS
COHESIVENESS
MOTIVATION
CONCURRENCE SEEKING
Antecedentconditions
MORALITY*
INVULNERABILITY**
UNANIMITY
SELF CENSORSHIP
CONFORMITY
GrouthinkSymptoms
Low qualitydecisionmakingprocess
Decision-making process quality
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R2 =0.12F for change in R2=5.134***
R2 =0.14F for change in R2=5.876***
LEADERSHIP
STRESS
COHESIVENESS
MOTIVATION
CONCURRENCE SEEKING
Antecedentconditions
MORALITY
INVULNERABILITY
UNANIMITY
SELF CENSORSHIP
CONFORMITY
GrouthinkSymptoms
Low qualitydecisionoutcome
Decision Outcome Quality
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Why to care about Groupthink in CFM?
Decisions that are biased and not truly optimisingthe interests of all distinct and heterogeneous sub-groups within the community of forest users may
lead to a failure of the project or policy in practice…
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Thankyou
Questions ??
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References and image sources
• Cartoon 1: " those in favour say Yes " : http://leaderslab.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/groupthink-400x280.jpg
• Cartoon 2: " we need more dissenting views " :https://sites.google.com/site/hookappsychology/group-influence-and-behaviors--carlos-odreman/groupthink• Cartoon 3: " when no one is thinking… : https://sites.psu.edu/aspsy/files/2016/10/c9ae7936dbacaa06b34420c26ed1ef2f-pr81dx.jpg• Cartoon 4: " So do we agree? :https://sites.psu.edu/aspsy/files/2016/10/608292-22122-23-1vu9rsd.jpg• Cartoon 5: http://www.prnewsonline.com/avoid-groupthink
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