a major climate/ecosystem shift observed in the northern bering sea james e. overland1, jacqueline...
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A Major Climate/Ecosystem Shift Observed in the Northern Bering Sea
James E. Overland1, Jacqueline M. Grebmeier2, Sue E. Moore3, Ed V. Farley4, Eddy C. Carmack5, L.W. Cooper2, K E. Frey.6, J.H, Helle4, F.A. McLaughlin5, S. Lyn McNutt7, Phyllis Stabeno1
1 NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, [email protected] The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 3NOAA/NMFS, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA4 NOAA/NMFS, Auke Bay Laboratory, Juneau, AK5Institute of Ocean Sciences,, Sidney, Canada6 Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA7University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK
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POSTERS
Igor Belkin Bering Sea Frontal PatternDouglas Dasher Aleutian Islands, Coastal Environmental Monitoring Assessment Program
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Recent loss of sea ice in southern Bering Sea –Spring 2000-2005
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Vertically Averaged Temperature (°C) at M2: 2 deg C increase in winter after 2000 Above freezing point
Stabeno
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Southern Bering Sea Ecosystem Changes
1999
2003
Warm temperatures favor pollock over Arctic species
E. Bering Sea Crab
0
200
400
600
800
1000
12001
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19
82
19
84
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Snow crab C. opilioTanner crab C. bairdiBristol Bay Red King CrabPribilof Is. Red King Crab
Pribilof Is. Blue King CrabSt. Matthew Blue King Crab
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Northern Bering Sea Ice Concentration ( Aprils 2000-2004) andSt. Lawrence Temperature Changes
Coming out in Science
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Change in Benthic Biology SW of St. Lawrence Island-Grebmeier
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10 M new Salmon in the N. Bering Sea in 2004- following increase northward movement of pollock- Helle
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[M. Webber-USFWS]
Walrus herd in the Chukchi Sea– June 2002
Schematic of food web in the northern Bering and Chukchi Seas [Grebmeier and Dunton 2000]
Clam food in walrus stomachs
[photos courtesy G. Sheffield]
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Persistent Arctic ChangesPersistent Arctic Changes
Overland and Wang 2005aWang and Overland 2004
Sea Ice DecreasingSept 2003
-4 -2 0 2 4 deg C
Warm Surface Temperatures
Tundra shown in
Pink
From NSIDC
Tundra Decreasing
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Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index
Thompson and Wallace, 1998 Geo. Res. Let.
EOF 1 Sea Level Pressure
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Temperature Anomalies
1977-1988 (PNA+) 1989-1995 (AO+) 1996-2004 (Arctic Warm) Pacific North American Arctic Oscillation
Climate Patterns
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New Climate Pattern
Air Temperature Wind/Pressure fields
Overland and Wang, GRL, 2005b
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It’s too warm!Future:Continued ice reductionsdue to Arctic feedback processes(winds, clouds, ocean currents)
Or:Shift to different climate patternwithin next 5 years with eventualreturn to warm pattern Thanks for support from
NOAA Arctic Research Program
North Pacific Research Board
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Spotted seals are found much further in from the ice edge300 km vs. 25 km