a provincial population analysis

8/9/2019 A Provincial Population Analysis

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An Analysis of a Provincial Population in 2007

With populations all over the world migrating within and outside of national boundaries, it is worth looking at

the events that trigger a family (or part of a family) to migrate, but also to look at who is migrating.

(Source data: CIA World Fact Book - 2008)

The map above shows the status of migration in 2008 with the brown areas showing the source of the

majority of migrants and the blue, the areas that are hosting the migrants and it clear from this that most of

the migration is due to economics, although the affect of climate changes will not only add to the economic

reasons to migrate, but will increase the rate at which migration occurs.

From informal research it is also clear that the majority of the migrants are the young, leaving behind many

of the very young and the older generations and this has dismal consequences for the source areas,

especially the rural areas where the farmers are getting older and poverty is spreading.

Having been involved with assisting development in a south-east Asian province for many years it was

suggested that an analysis of the local population from census results would be useful; in an attempt to

ascertain the amount of internal and external migration amongst the population. The analysis of this

province clearly showed a pattern emerging and this is rapid urbanisation, mostly sourced from the rural

areas and that of the migrants, the majority are the younger people (aged 15 to 24), that are seeking

sustainable employment opportunity and many are heading towards the metropolitan areas for this

purpose. It was also clear from the analysis that although the majority of migrants were in the 15 to 24

years old category, there were a significant number of 25 to 45 year olds also leaving. In this instance

external migrants are those that are leaving the province; not necessarily emigrating abroad.

For any government authority these should be worrying statistics, as with a significant percentage of the

young and middle aged leaving an area, it raises questions about the future development of that area and

that an aging population provides greater dependency on public services and less revenue is raised for the

local government coffers. It then became an exercise to attempt to determine the source of the migrants

and this showed that the majority were coming from the rural villages; either migrating out of the province or

migrating to the urban areas within the province and this raised certain issues regarding revenue

generation, food production, public services provision (health, Education, Waste disposal, Potable water

etc) and also to attempt to determine the age differences between urban and rural areas, as this has

possible consequences in long term food production and the direction of service provision.


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Core Studies Analysis

Analysing a population that is on the move first had to look at the internal migration to determine the

amount of drift from rural to urban areas and the results showed that four municipalities around the central

(capital) municipality had to host large percentage increases in their populations, putting inevitable stress

on public services, land resources and employment opportunity; any of which could lead to civil conflict

situations arising, although the area is known to be peaceful. Behind all migration trends are reasons for

migration and it is worthwhile to look at these.

Why are people migrating?

Shortage of employment Perceived employment opportunity in metropolitan areas.

Lack of livelihood development in rural areas.

Declining economic stability Cost of living increases / general inflation

Higher cost of agricultural inputs.

Climate change (general) Greater difficulty in food production.

Climate change (local) Annual Drought. Annual Flooding. Sea level rises.

Racial / Tribal conflict Not applicable in this province.

Political conflict Anti-authority group activities increasing.

Religious conflict Not applicable in this province yet.

Armed conflict

Who is it that is migrating?

The youth aged 15 to 24 years Mostly from sub-urban and rural areas.Those aged 25 to 40 years Mostly from sub-urban and rural areas.

Skilled and semi-skilled Industrial to industrial areas.

Where are the migrants coming from?

Declining industrial areas Industrial to industrial areas.

Declining agricultural areas Rural to sub-urban.

Rural to industrial areas.

Urban and sub-urban areas To metropolitan areas.

It has not been possible to gain access to the age ranges in the villages, as the

census office only provided an age range table for the province, although it is hoped

to gain access for the next census, due in 2010.The table (left) shows the age range of the provincial population at the last census

and as can be seen the percentage of population in certain age ranges declines from

the age 15 years through 44 years old and this shows that those in the age range 15

to 49 years old (working age) have a larger share of the burden to support the very

young and the elderly.

The graph (above) shows the population age range and the graph (below) shows the same population by

age range and gender and emphasises the greater number of young females that are leaving the province

to seek opportunities in the metropolitan areas where there are posts available in domestic service and

retail outlets. It is generally supposed that those that leave send part of their income home, but there is very

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

Under1

1to4 5to9 10to14

15to19

20to24

25to29

30to34

35to39

40to44

45to49

50to54

55to59

60to64

65to69

70Plus


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little evidence available to show if this happens although there is informal data to show that very little is

returned to the family home.

(Male to Female population spread over the age ranges)

In many areas, such as the European Union, cross-border migration is legal for members of the union and

this has economic consequences to individual member states and also on the level of public services that

are provided and within the European Union there are border checks that show the population movements

and there are also tax and other records that support population analysis. However, in many developing

countries, few tax or other records are available, as many are below the poverty level and work within theinformal (black) market, therefore not providing a government with any true picture of its population.

Within the province under study there are two districts, both governed by a single governor, but with two

members within the national congress; one for each District. This allows individual congressmen to direct

funding towards their home districts and thus, providing an imbalance in development funding between the

two districts.

The analysis of the census documentation for the population showed that between two censuses the

annual population expansion rate had dropped dramatically from 2.54% to 1.23% and that there was a

definite and significant drift of population from District B to District A, where the majority of the commercial

and retail outlets are located. During the period between the two censuses the population of District A had

grown by 12.74% in comparison with District B where it had grown by only 6.68%.

(Blue = losses, Green = stable, Red = gains)

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

Under1

1to4 5to9 10to14

15to19

20to24

24to29

30to34

35to39

40to44

45to49

50to54

55to59

60to64

65to69

70Plus

Male Female


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The map (above) shows the clear drift of people from one district to another and also identifies several

municipalities (M1, M6, M7, M8, M10 and M11) that have to host the internal migrants. From this, it can be

assumed that these municipalities will experience severe stress in public service provision and that the

provincial government will be expected to make allowances to ensure that the basic services are

maintained in the popular municipalities and yet this can only be achieved with hindsight, as the number of

people migrating was not foreseen, due to the suddenness of its occurrence between two censuses.

As would be expected, the municipality marked M8 being the capital of the province attracts many of the

migrants and this is also the major commercial centre, hoping to find employment opportunity and yet M15,

being the centre of District 2 is seeing a decline in its population, as is the rest of the district other than M11and M18, although in some of these municipalities there have been some gains in the rural villages even

though M14 is a major distribution centre for other municipalities in District 2, with M14 being where the

main highway fades into second quality roads.

Until this analysis there were only two community definitions, these being urban and other and extensive

analysis produced the definitions urban, sub-urban and rural and this made it possible to identify the larger

extent of the population movement or drift.

All governments, be they central or local have to plan their budget expenditures for public service provision

and thus knowing about the populations placement and number is a very important factor and with the

erratic movements of this population it is very difficult to know what the situation will be like ten years

ahead, for planning and implementation purposes.

Given that in this province, as in many others, the majority of the rural population is involved in smallfarming enterprises, some obvious conclusions can be drawn from the fact that many youth are leaving the

rural villages and these conclusions must include the social or cultural aspect that affects the decision to

move. The rural youth no longer wish to toil on the land in a hand to mouth existence; preferring to take

their chances in the urban areas hoping to find white collar employment, or taking the further step to move

to another area of the nation, to the metropolitan areas to seek opportunities.

There are also consequences for provincial planners in this change in population structure and as the table

below shows; there are both benefits and disadvantages in small and large populations.

Population: Benefit: Disadvantage:

High population Greater direct revenue Higher level of public services provision required.

Greater indirect revenue (Health, Education, Potable water, Waste disposal, etc).

Greater commercial activity Greater demand on imported commodities.

Low population Less direct revenue Lower level of public services provision required.

Less indirect revenue (Health, Education, Potable water, Waste disposal, etc).

Lower commercial activity Lower retail outlet and domestic employment.

When planning several years ahead for public services provision, a local government has to not only

determine the number of structures and facilities required but also to ensure that there are sufficient trained

staff available as and when needed. With a migrating population; getting the details right is not possible and

political consequences can follow.

There is also the potential problem of land usage in the municipalities that have to host the migrants, being

that the arable agricultural land is not a large amount and the pressure to convert more agricultural landinto residential land is strong, especially around the urban areas. Zoning in the popular host municipalities

may have to be considered in order to restrict the amount of agricultural land lost to developers.

However, it is clear that from 2001 the provincial government put in place a long-term programme to

improve livelihoods in all sectors, although a considerable amount of investment was directed at agricultural

(food, abaca and coconut production), fisheries and livestock development and that given the general

budget restraints; the provincial authority has shown a considerable return on its investment, although, as

yet, this has not been large enough to interest the youth in staying in the rural or coastal areas. Whilst

politics has a role to play in enabling the provincial government to sustain this development, the authority


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has remained in one political party although the leadership has changed with the new leadership having

retained the original programme.

Overall, it seems that the provincial government is undertaking the right strategies and maintaining

sustainable development at the same time as attempting to improve the infrastructure and public service

provision and yet, is severely restrained in this endeavour by its inability to track the annual population

statistics. Normally, a census every ten years is sufficient to allow a local government to plan for its future

service provision needs and this provincial government cannot hope to plan correctly given the suddenness

and number of people migrating within and outside of the province.

With many of the rural youth having little interest in working on the land and the need to produce more oftheir own food to improve food security, the provincial government may have no option other than to

increase the budget put aside for agricultural development, although they now possess their own research

laboratory to improve local varieties of rice and other field crops. How to retain the youth on the land is a

priority of the provincial government and they may need outside help to achieve some of this target.

Sourcing potable water is becoming a major problem in this province as less rainfall and higher mean

temperatures have caused water tables to fall and there are already some municipalities where water

shortages are a daily occurrence, although the forested uplands are ideal water catchment areas, but the

large expenditure requirement to harvest and store water from the upland areas is prohibitive in these times

of economic restraint. There are many rivers in the province, fed from the uplands going down through the

important rice production deltas and out to the sea, although some of the delta areas are at risk from the

rising sea level, although at this time the threat is minor.

(Provincial river systems)

As a developing nation it has the usual economic and climate change problems and as, on the economic

side the country is in direct competition with Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, the two Koreas and

Indonesia, this country will have to depend upon its own recourses in order to build its economy. The buffer

countries for China are well positioned to compete directly with this country and within this country and inthis particular province there is little to offer other than some marine products, abaca, copra and coconut

oil.

Without the youth there cannot be long-term development and without development, there will be fewer youth.

Thus, we have a province with a fluid population, with many of the young leaving; low producing (but

improving) agriculture, livestock and marine sectors although the province is largely dependent on

agriculture, little tourism, no mineral assets, a hard working and forward looking government; in a highly

competitive economic environment, with the effects of climate change already apparent and yet, the

population is generally supportive of the efforts being made by the provincial government staff.


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Although a producer of raw materials from abaca and coconut, the province has only a small capacity to

process and wholesale these assets and it is thought that the support for a processing industry in the

province is essential for the future. For some years, the provincial leaders have been attempting to interest

private enterprise to invest in a greater level of processing, although it is accepted that the electrical power

generating capability required to facilitate a greater processing capacity needs to be increased as do the

port services to handle bulk loads.

What comes through is a classic catch 22 situation whereby the province needs the youth in order to build

the economy and push the province to the next stage of its development and the situation where the youth

are leaving because there is not enough short-term development to encourage them to stay, although theyhave falsely set their ambitions well beyond their abilities and would rather be impoverished in a

competitive white collar situation with high unemployment than low income bound to a rural setting.

What also comes through strongly is the need for investment in processing the available assets that are a

major part of the provinces economy and another catch 22 situation whereby without investment in

processing, economic development may be restricted and without economic development there is less

likelihood of commercial investment.

Core Studies July 2010

a provincial population analysis

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