china's electricity future: a provincial scenario analysis
TRANSCRIPT
ToprojectChina’selectricitydemandfromtheresidentialsectorforthe2015-2050periodataprovinciallevel,underdifferentdemographicandsocio-economicscenarios:
Method
ObjectiveIntroduction
• Providingaffordable,reliable,cleanelectricityinChinarequiresarobustplanningprocessthataccountsforuncertainties
• Robustcapacityplanninginthepowersystemrequirescharacterizingtheuncertaintyonfutureelectricitydemand
• Electricitydemand fromtheresidentialsectorisgrowingfast
• Thereisanurgentneedtoidentifyandunderstandthedriversoffutureelectricitydemand intheresidentialsector
• Thisresearchdirectlycontributestoprojectionoffutureelectricitydemandin theresidential sectorfromthebottom-up
China's Electricity Future: A Provincial Scenario Analysis towards 2050
Results
DataFramework
Module Variable No.
Population NationalTFRandallocatedtoprovinces 4
Urbanization PercapitaGDPgrowth 3
Householdsize&
Penetration
Householdsize 3
Percapitaincomegrowth 3
Decomposition model
Outputs• Rural: total ownership by appliance• Urban: total ownership by appliance
Integratingmodel
Population by province
Dynamicmodel
Base year input
• Men by agegroup• Women by agegroup
Scenario design
• Birth rate• Death rate• Sex ratio
Population Module
Urbanization by province
Law ofurbanization development
Regression model
Independent variable• Economic development
Dependent variable• Urbanization rate
Scenario design• Economic growth by province
Urbanization Module
• Rural penetration by province• Urban penetration by province
Regressionmodel
Rural & Urban
• Independent: Income;household size
• Dependent: penetration
Scenario design
• Income growth byprovince
Relationship: income& penetration
• Rural• Urban
AppliancePenetration Module
• Rural• Urban
Scenario design for size of household
Number of household
• Rural• Urban
Penetration of appliances per household
Impact of each driver
Total appliances owned
ScenariosConclusion
Penetrationofappliances§ Differencesbetweenurbanandruralregionswillnarrow§ Currentdisparitiesbetweenregionswilltendtodisappear§ Appliancepenetrationgrowthwillbeledbyadoptionof
ACsandPCsTotalappliancesowned§ Mostapplianceswillbeownedbyurbanhouseholds§ ApplianceownershipwillbeconcentratedinEasternChina§ Undersomepossiblefuturescenarios,appliance
ownershipwillreachapeakduringtheanalysisperiod§ PCsownedbyhouseholdsin2050willalmosttripleImpactofdrivers§ Penetrationofappliances(asfunctionofincome)hasa
higherimpactthanpopulation,urbanization,orhouseholdsizeontheestimatedtotalnumberofappliances
§ Reductionsinownershiparedueto population decline
Future work• Developabottom-upframeworkto
characterizeelectricitydemandscenarios
• Createatooltoforecastlong-termelectricitydemandatthehourlytemporalscale
Fundedby [email protected];[email protected]
Mingquan Li, Rui Shan, Mauricio Hernandez, Varun Mallampalli & Dalia Patiño-Echeverri DukeUniversity,Durham,NC,USA
• Saturation:Penetrationofhouseholdelectricappliancesperhousehold
• Totalend-useequipment:Totalnumberofunitsofeachapplianceinaprovince
Populationchange
Urbanization
Downsizinghousehold
Incomegrowth
Drivers FeaturesHighgeographicalresolution-Urban&Rural,31Provinces
Underuncertainty:108scenarios
Mainenduses:6appliances(AirConditioner(AC),Microwave,Washer,Refrigerator,TV,andPersonalComputer(PC))
Longterm:2015-2050
Appliancepenetrationperhousehold
Urbanization
Population
Integratingmodel
Module Variable Year Source
Population
Population
2010
6th PopulationCensusofthePeople’sRepublicofChina
Deathrate
Birthrate
UrbanizationUrbanizationrate
2005-2014NationalStatisticalYearbook2006-2015
GDPPopulation
Householdsize Householdsize 2013
StatisticalYearbookfor31provinces2014&2015
PenetrationPenetrationrate
2000-2012StatisticalYearbookfor31provinces2001-2015Percapitaincome