“a reality check” matt herb, president osta, osc, osgl october 23, 2009
TRANSCRIPT
“A Reality Check”
Matt Herb, PresidentOSTA, OSC, OSGL
October 23, 2009
General economic conditions• Uncertainty of future• Unemployment• Lower housing starts• Different priorities
Higher input costs for consumers•Fuel•Fertilizer•Chemicals•Labor
Lower tax revenues - lower spending on schools, parks, roadsides
Lower golf rounds
Lower beef cattle numbers, milk prices
Stronger dollar against foreign currencies
Higher• Fuel• Fertilizer• Chemicals• Labor (Oregon is #2 for minimum wage)
More Legislation that increases cost• Burn ban• Bio-fuels• Taxes• User fees• Licenses
5 year average usage 253 million lbs.
‘08/’09 usage 228 million ‘09/’10 est. usage 228 million
July 1, 2009 carryover 50 million’09 est. crop 216 millionJuly 1 2010 carryover 38 million
14 month supply
5 year average usage 213 million lbs.
‘08/’09 usage 146 million ‘09/’10 est. usage 166 million (20 mill less for MN & CAN)
July 1, 2009 carryover 100 million’09 est. crop 154 millionJuly 1 2010 carryover 88 million
18 month supply
5 year average usage 228 million lbs.
‘08/’09 usage 228 million ‘09/’10 est. usage 198 million (30 mill add MO K-31)
July 1, 2009 carryover 120 million’09 est. crop 210 millionJuly 1 2010 carryover 138 million
20 month supply
5 year average usage 15 million lbs.
‘08/’09 usage 10 million ‘09/’10 est. usage 10 million
July 1, 2009 carryover 3 million’09 est. crop 13 millionJuly 1 2010 carryover 6 million
19 month supply
4 year average usage 5.5 million lbs.
‘08/’09 usage 3.5 million ‘09/’10 est. usage 3.5 million
July 1, 2009 carryover 2 million’09 est. crop 5 millionJuly 1 2010 carryover 3.5 million
24 month supply
4 year average usage 2.8 million lbs.
‘08/’09 usage 1.9 million ‘09/’10 est. usage 1.9 million
July 1, 2009 carryover 1 million’09 est. crop 4.5 millionJuly 1 2010 carryover 3.5 million
34 month supply
Reduce acres to match current demandAlternative cropsReduce inputs and input costReduce laborExplore programs- FSA, NCRS, ODA, etc.Develop a cropping planDevelop a marketing plan
Decide to be profitable!
Decide to think outside the box!Decide to control fear and greed!Decide to think “industry” instead of “self”!