A Resilient Serbia?

These slides are from a talk by Paul Currion in Belgrade on 8 June 2014. The talk was delivered in Mikser House as part of the 2014 Mikser Festival.

The talk was intended to introduce the concept of resilience in the context of recovery following the 2014 floods in the Balkans.

These notes give an outline of the talk, with some additional information related to the subject. We hope you find them useful!

Send any comments to paul@currion.net.

The Global Perspective

“In 2010 natural disasters affected more than 200 million people, killed nearly 270,000 and caused around $110 billion of damage.”

- Defining Disaster Resilience: A DFID Approach Paper (2011)

The Global Trend

“Over the coming decades it is expected that both the frequency and intensity of disasters will continue to increase as a result of:

- climate change- urban migration- population growth, and - increased scarcity of natural resources.”

- Defining Disaster Resilience: A DFID Approach Paper (2011)

What does it mean for Serbia?

Human Loss

● Unknown number dead

● More than 30,000 people displaced

Economic Impact

“Current EBRD growth forecasts for 2014 are... 1% for Serbia and may be revised further downwards.”

> RECESSION

Infrastructure Cost

● €2 billion

(EBRD estimate)

● Includes €500 million for agriculture

Human CostUnknown number deadMore than 30,000 people displaced

Infrastructure Cost€2 billion (EBRD estimate)Includes €500 million for agriculturehttp://www.ebrd.com/pages/news/press/2014/140529a.shtml

Economic Impact“Current EBRD growth forecasts for 2014 are... 1% for Serbia and may be revised further downwards.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/03/us-serbia-recession-idUSKBN0EE1JY20140603

This is likely to lead to recession

Why Floods? Why Now?

It probably wasn't Conchita Wurst, despite what the Serbian Orthodox Church claims.

It probably wasn't HAARP (based on an idea by Tesla), despite what conspiracy theorists claim.

It probably wasn't Vucic, despite what – well, what everybody else thinks.

It probably wasn't the supervillain Bane – because you can't place the blame on a single person.

The problem can't be reduced to a single event or person – it's much more complicated.

Vulnerability to disaster is a systemic problem that needs to be dealt with at the system level.

So what's the good news?

SOLIDARITY OPPORTUNITY

That was the bad news.

What's the good news?

The floods had two positive outcomes:

1. Solidarity. It showed how people can work together, even without government support, to help themselves and each other.

2. Opportunity. It gives us a chance to discuss why the floods happened, and to explore new ways of structuring the way we live our lives.

Resilience?

“The ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner”

- United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

So what is resilience?

1. The Dictionary says that it is:

“The ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb,accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner.”

- United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

2. The Pictionary shows us that:

The concept comes from ecological science: “For an ecosystem such as a forest, resilience can involve dealing with storms, fires and pollution.”

How do we make Serbia Resilient?

INTERNATIONAL

NATIONAL

LOCALPERSONAL

We can make Serbia Resilient at four levels:

• International. The UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) provides a framework; there's also the Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Initiative for South Eastern Europe (DPPI-SEE).

• National. In Serbia we have a National Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Strategy; after the floods, the Office for assistance and rehabilitation of flooded areas was set up.

• Local. This is where we can act together, to answer the question: How do we make our communities resilient and sustainable?

• Personal. This is the level at which we can think about things we can do in our own lives to prepare and respond to future challenges.

What is a Resilient Community?

Understands the risks they face, and can minimize losses and damage when a disaster strikes.

Are able to sustain their basic

community functions and structures

despite disaster impacts.

Understands that building resilience is a long-term, continuous process that requires ongoing commitment.

Can build back after a disaster to ensure that vulnerabilities are reduced in future.

What are the characteristics of a resilient community?

● They understand the disaster risks that they face... and make themselves safe to minimize losses and damage when a disaster strikes.

● They are able to do much for themselves and can sustain their basic community functions and structures despite the impact of disasters.

● They can build back after a disaster and work towards ensuring that vulnerabilities continue to be reduced for the future.

● They understand that building safety and resilience is a long-term, continuous process that requires ongoing commitment.

● They understand that there is much that can be done to adapt to future problems and challenges by building on their current knowledge.

- A framework for community safety and resilience, IFRC (2008)

What isn't a Resilient Community?

Cost of Flood Damage: €2 billion

Cost of Beograd na Vodi: €4 billion

“Resilience is a political choice – for individuals, communities and governments”

“Resilience is a political choice – for individuals, communities and governments” - but we don't always make the right choices for resilience!

For example, the cost of the flood damage is around €2 billion – but the cost of the mega-development “Beograd na Vodi” will be €4 billion.Given the political and economic challenges facing Serbia, it is clear that we can't leave this issues for government to address.Relying on government is not a good strategy for resilience – just ask the communities in Greece suffering under austerity measures.This is about making a political decision about how we want Serbia to look in an uncertain future – the kind of country we want to live in.

What can we do?

“The resilience of a community in respect to potential hazard events is determined by the degree to which the community has the necessary resources and is capable of organizing itself both prior to and during times of need.”

RESOURCES

SELF-ORGANISATION

“The resilience of a community in respect to potential hazard events is determined by the degree to which the community has the necessary resources and is capable of organizing itself both prior to and during times of need.”

- UNISDR. http://www.preventionweb.net/english/professional/terminology/v.php?id=501

ACCESS TO RESOURCES

● Finance and insurance

● Knowledge and skills

● Early warning and action

● Infrastructure

– Better buildings (brown)

– Improved water management (blue)

– Stronger ecosystems (green)

Resources aren't just about money for building. Here are examples of other resources:

Finance and insurance. If home-owners can buy insurance, they will be able to rebuild more quickly without government assistance. If businesses can buy insurance, they can get back to work quickly.Knowledge and skills. If individuals and groups can build up a wider range of skills, they will be more prepared for emergencies.Early warning and action. If appropriate warning systems are in place – and if those warnings lead to action – then communities can prepare better.Infrastructure. This is not just about building flood defences - there are three types of infrastructure we can look at: BROWN – buildings that can survive floods betterBLUE – better water management to avoid floodingGREEN – stronger ecosystems to survive flooding

SELF-ORGANISATION

● Have a positive vision

● Access to Information

● Be Inclusive and Open

● Share and Network

● The solution is the same size as the problem

● Promote governance at the appropriate level

The international Transition Movement looks at all aspects of resilience and sustainability. They believe that self-organised communities have the following characteristics:

● Have a positive vision. They are focused on a better future!

● Access to Information. They create better access for everybody in the community.

● Be Inclusive and Open. They welcome everybody who wants to contribute to the solution.

● Share and Network. They share problems and solutions, and work with partners.

● The solution is the same size as the problem. They don't try to fix the entire world, just the immediate problem.

● Promote governance at the appropriate level. They set up governance within the community.

What does the future look like?

What does the future look like? It's not Beograd na Vodi, but it's not small villages either. We have to decide what we want. In the end, it's up to all of us!

REFERENCES:

- Defining Disaster Resilience: A DFID Approach Paper (DFID 2011). https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/186874/defining-disaster-resilience-approach-paper.pdf- A framework for community safety and resilience, IFRC (2008). http://www.ifrc.org/Global/Case%20studies/Disasters/cs-framework-community-en.pdf- Building Disaster Resilient Communities (UNISDR 2007). http://www.unisdr.org/files/596_10307.pdf- The Transition Companion, Green Books (2011). https://www.transitionnetwork.org/transition-companion