A Smart Tool for a Sustainable Future

Chicago skyline PM2.5 < 10 μg/m3

Chicago skyline PM2.5 20 μg/m3

Chicago skyline PM2.5 35 μg/m3

Canada Wide Standard: 35μg/m3

Mortality

An increase in fine particulate pollution (PM2.5) of 10 μg/m3 is associated with an increase of:

1.8% in total mortality (death)

1.4% in cardiovascular (CV) mortality

• After 1990 a ban on coal for residential heating in the UK resulted in a reduction of 35.6 μg/m3 in black smoke (fine PM). The result was a 10.3% decrease in annual CV mortality

• In Hong Kong, a 50% reduction in SO2 was followed by a 2.4% reduction in CV death.

Each increase of 10 μg/m3 was associated with a 6% increase in risk of cardiopulmonary mortality in the ACS study (U.S.)

Living near a major road (PM and NO2) was associated with a relative risk for cardiopulmonary mortality of 1.95 (Hamilton and Amsterdam)

Morbidity

A transient increase in the concentration of PM2.5 of 25 μg/m3 has been associated with an increased risk for myocardial infarction within 1-2 hours of exposure.

High concentrations of PM2.5 over 24 hours increases cardiovascular risk.

Living near a busy road increases the likelihood of several respiratory health effects.

Growth Issues

Population to grow by four million people by 2031 (11 million total).

Golden Horseshoe to be third-largest urban land area in North America.

Commute times to increase by 45%.

Automobile emissions to increase by 42%.

Complex Planning Issues

Lack of coordinated approach to urban planning. Are health and local environmental impacts measured

properly?

How are sustainability objectives measured?

Lack of full-cost accounting of different approaches.

The regions’ current analytical tools have not integrated transportation, environment, health, economic, and social relationships in a comprehensive manner.

NOX Emissions Over Southern Ontario Using SMOKE (July 13 - 16, 1999)

PM2.5 Concentrations Over Southern Ontario

Using Models-3 / CMAQ (July 11 - 19, 1999)

Inter-Relationships

Public Policy is Linked to Each

Component

Economic & Regional Development

Infrastructure•Municipal Works•Transportation

Road Congestion

Air Quality &GHG Impacts

Social ImpactsImpact on Health &

Environment

Socio-Economic and Environmental Costs

IndustrialInstitutionalResidential

Cost of Decisions

Infrastructure costsBalance?

A Simplified Source-Receptor Model for Estimating Air Quality Impacts of Policy Measures

ReFSoRT

Emission Inventories

Prepared by: Mike Lepage & Bob Caton, RWDI

November 18 & 21, 2003

Estimating Clean Air Benefits

Changes in Fuel/Energy Use by Sector, Region

Changes in Ambient Air Quality (PM2.5, ozone)

Health Impacts (mortality, morbidity)

Changes in Individual Welfare (WTP)

Aggregation of Damages AcrossEffects, Individuals, Time

AQVM

Changes in CAC Emissions (SOX, NOX, etc.)

Energy2020

Energy 2020

ReFSoRT

Non-Linear RollbackSulphate Example

PM = fr x SO4/(SO4-SO4b)

SO4/(SO4-SO4b) = k/k Es/Es + k/k + Es/Es

k is dependent on changes in NOX, SOX and VOC

NAPS and Census Division Coverage in ReFSoRT

Model Domains (MM5 and CMAQ) and ReFSoRT Subregions

Comparison between SRT and CMAQ modelling for Ozone

CMAQ Model Domain, ReFSoRT Subregions and Micro-subregions

Thank you