a status quo review of climate change and the agriculture ... · 12 april 2015 a status quo review...

Report submitted to the Western Cape Department of Agriculture

and the Western Cape Department of Environmental Affairs &

Development Planning

Chapter 13 Conclusion

and References

For public comment

12 April 2015

A Status Quo Review of Climate Change

and the Agriculture Sector of the Western

Cape Province

2

Chapter 13 Conclusions

Status Quo Review of Climate Change and Agriculture in the Western Cape Province

13 Conclusions

The Western Cape agriculture sector is faced with numerous difficulties and climate

change will exert its influence in the context of multiple interacting drivers and

pressure points. Adapting to the consequences of climate change and mitigating

greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, thereby building climate resilience, will

depend as much on addressing these pressure points as on preparing for a different

climatic future.

Agriculture is highly dependent on effective risk management covering all three

sustainability components: economic, environmental and social. The risks and

impacts experienced as a result of climate change in the Western Cape and the

capacity to respond depend largely on where individual enterprises are positioned

on the scale of resource wealth or ‘capital’ (based on the sustainable livelihood

approach): human, natural, social, physical and financial capital. Weaknesses in any

of these can significantly reduce climate resilience, for example continued labour

unrest. All farms can experience exposure to variable and extreme weather, but

some are able to draw on resources and skills to ‘bounce back’ relatively unscathed,

whereas others never fully recover and become morbid or fail. Economies of scale

and diversification across commodities and agro-ecological zones renders larger

farming groups much more resilient than small and undiversified farming operations.

In order for the sector to deal with whatever climate change throws in its path whilst

continuing on a green growth path, and to seize opportunities arising from an

increasingly fluid global agricultural market, it is necessary to go beyond response

and to plan strategically (anticipatory) for the near- and mid-term future. The

Western Cape may experience pockets of increasingly marginal agriculture and

these can be identified through research, communication and monitoring. This

review has however, on a more positive note, identified many areas of opportunity.

In some cases certain agro-ecological zones will benefit from relatively benign

climate changes such as moderate warming with potentially stable or even

increased rainfall. In other cases, a shift to more resilient crop types and farming

systems (climate smart agriculture) can buffer agriculture against some aridification

without negatively impacting profitability or jobs.

This review has found that, although the agricultural value chain is known to be

extremely important in the Western Cape, almost no work has been done to assess

the impacts of climate change across the value chain. Growth opportunities in the

value chain should be well assessed against climate change risks and impacts,

including the question of limiting resources (water, energy) required for these

activities.

3

Chapter 13 Conclusions


As global markets become increasingly focused on ‘food miles’ or the carbon

footprint of agricultural imports, the export segment of Western Cape agriculture has

had a good start in positioning itself to avoid future risks. The transition from

measuring to reducing the footprint now needs to be made, with the correct policy

support. Many of the mitigation options identified in this review show either the

potential for financial benefits to farmers and agri-business (e.g. carbon credits) or

they confer adaptive benefits which lead to greater production potential (e.g.

cheaper and more reliable energy, healthy soil). Either way, farmers will respond if

convinced of the benefits, and this will drive the response to reduce GHG emissions

from the agriculture sector. Some options could even become lucrative sources of

additional income for land owners, for example once independently generated

solar and wind energy (at scale) can be connected to the grid.

In conclusion, the Western Cape will likely remain a strong agricultural region, at least

in the near- to medium-term. It is likely that there will be ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ and the

sector together with government needs to identify the latter and provide support.

The next step of the SmartAgri project will be to develop a Climate Change

Response Framework and Implementation Plan. This will provide the mechanisms for

such support.

4

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