a survey of public perception on elections and civic

A SURVEY OF PUBLIC PERCEPTION ON

ELECTIONS AND CIVIC EDUCATION |

AFGHANISTAN

KEY FINDINGS

APRIL 2013

This publication was produced by Democracy International, Inc., for the United States Agency for International Development through Cooperative Agreement No. 306-A-00-09-00522-00.

Photographs in this report were taken by DI staff.

Democracy International, Inc. 7600 Wisconsin Avenue, Suite 1010 Bethesda, MD 20814 Tel: 301.961.1660 www.democracyinternational.com

A SURVEY OF PUBLIC

PERCEPTION ON

ELECTIONS AND CIVIC

EDUCATION |

AFGHANISTAN

KEY FINDINGS

APRIL 2013

DISCLAIMER This publication is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of Democracy International, Inc., and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

A SURVEY OF PUBLIC PERCEPTION ON ELECTIONS AND

CIVIC EDUCATION | AFGHANISTAN i

CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................... 1

RESEARCH FINDINGS ........................................................ 5

INTRODUCTION.............................................................. 5

FINDINGS ........................................................................ 6

ISSUES ...................................................................... 6

ATTITUDES ABOUT POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS ... 7

POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT AND EXPERIENCE WITH RECENT ELECTIONS .................................... 9

INFORMATION AND AWARENESS....................... 11

LEGITIMACY OF ELECTIONS ............................... 13

VOTER EDUCATION .............................................. 14

ELECTORAL AND POLITICAL SITUATION........... 14

CONCLUSION ............................................................... 16

ANNEX A: DEMOGRAPHICS............................................ A-1

ANNEX B: METHODOLOGY............................................ B-1

THE QUESTIONNAIRE ................................................B-1

SAMPLING....................................................................B-1

INTERVIEWS ................................................................B-2

HOUSEHOLD SELECTION..........................................B-2

RESPONDENT SELECTION .......................................B-3

QUALITY CONTROL ....................................................B-3

WEIGHTING AND DATA ANALYSIS ...........................B-3

RESEARCH TEAM .......................................................B-3

ANNEX C: REGIONAL MAP ............................................ C-1

ANNEX D: INSTRUMENT ................................................. D-1


CIVIC EDUCATION | AFGHANISTAN

1

Afghanistan has held four national elections since the fall of the Taliban. Unfortunately, each electoral process has revealed significant flaws in the country’s democratic framework. Both the

2009 presidential election and the 2010 parliamentary election were marred by widespread fraud and tarnished the legitimacy of Afghanistan’s electoral management institutions. These processes have highlighted the need for comprehensive electoral reform.

Since 2009, Democracy International (DI) has worked to support the strengthening of Afghanistan’s electoral processes, both through international election observation missions and

by supporting domestic advocacy for electoral reform. Currently, DI implements USAID’s Afghanistan Electoral Reform and Civic Advocacy program (AERCA). As part of the AERCA program, DI has conducted some of the most comprehensive public opinion research on Afghan

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY



2

democracy to date. This survey report contributes to this body of research by presenting the results of a survey of Afghan citizens on issues related to elections and civic education.

At the time of this report’s release, Afghanistan’s National Assembly is considering two laws which would govern the future administration of Afghan elections. The Law on the Duties and

Structures of the IEC is currently being debated by a joint committee of Afghanistan’s Wolesi Jirga and Meshrano Jirga. A new Electoral Law is also currently being debated by Afghanistan’s Wolesi Jirga. If adopted, these laws would help address some of the weaknesses of Afghanistan’s

electoral framework.

1. Issue Areas

While security remains the most important issue for Afghans nationally, economic issues

are not far behind and at the local level trump security as the most important issues for Afghans.

The perception of national insecurity affects how Afghans view the problems facing their country. Many Afghans do not necessarily experience insecurity in their local

communities, but they are still likely to prioritize it as a national issue.

Afghans have mixed views regarding the direction of their country. An almost equal

number of respondents believe the country is moving in the right direction (33%) as opposed to the wrong direction (32%). The security situation is what drives Afghans’ outlook for their country: the most common reason Afghans believe their country is

moving in the wrong direction is insecurity and in the right direction is better security.

2. Attitudes about Political Institutions

Afghans are divided on how democracy functions in Afghanistan. While 39 percent of Afghans are fairly or very satisfied with the way democracy works in their country, 33

percent of respondents are not satisfied with Afghan democracy. Men are more likely than women to report dissatisfaction with democracy (40% vs. 25%). Afghans are more satisfied with the way elections work in Afghanistan than they are with the way

democracy works. A plurality (46%) is either fairly or very satisfied and a minority (19%) is not satisfied.

Despite the security and economic challenges facing Afghans, the vast majority have some or a lot of confidence in President Karzai (77%). President Karzai enjoys

particularly strong support among women, with 78 percent of Afghan women reporting satisfaction with his performance over the past ten years (72 percent for men).

Afghan institutions enjoy mixed levels of confidence from citizens. Despite the portrayal

of the Afghan National Army (ANA) by the international media as weak, a vast majority of Afghans have some or a lot of confidence in the ANA (83%).

KEY FINDINGS



3

The Taliban is extremely unpopular in Afghanistan with a majority of respondents (65%)

reporting they have no confidence in the organization. Pashtuns have the most confidence in the Taliban (24%) followed by Tajiks (10%), Hazaras (9%), and Uzbeks (6%).

3. Political Engagement and Experience with Recent Elections

Afghans overwhelmingly intend to vote in the upcoming elections. More say they will vote in the next presidential election (76%) than in the next parliamentary elections

(70%). For both elections, men were more likely to say they would vote than women. Afghans with more education were more likely to say they would vote than respondents with lower levels of education.

4. Information and Awareness

To increase the credibility of future Afghan election processes, effort must be made to

increase understanding of the institutions that manage Afghan elections. Only 17 percent of Afghans believe their community is well informed and 19 percent somewhat informed

regarding the role of the Independent Election Commission (IEC) and the vast majority of Afghans (62%) are unfamiliar with the function of the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC).

Afghans did not receive sufficient information in preparation for previous elections. Only 25 percent said they had enough information to participate on election day. There is a

moderate gender gap among those who received no information, with 28 percent of women reporting they received no information compared to only 21 percent of men.

Afghans also require more information and understanding about their representatives in the National Assembly and about the legislative activity in parliament. A plurality of

Afghans (45%) report they are not informed and 26 percent report they are somewhat informed about legislative activities in the National Assembly.

5. Legitimacy of Elections

Only half of respondents believe in the legitimacy of previous elections in Afghanistan, mostly because of the perception of widespread fraud. Despite that perception, most

Afghans (76%) plan on participating in the presidential election scheduled for 2014.

6. Voter Education

Afghans are more likely to vote if they are better informed about the election process and

candidates. The primary area Afghans need more information is on candidates. Afghans also believe that more information about security precautions would help instill

confidence in voters that it is safe to vote on election day. Thirty percent of respondents believe more information is needed about the connection between Islam and elections.

The survey reveals that civic education efforts must target the role of the electoral institutions in addition to the specifics of how to vote and where to vote. Perhaps the

most important finding is that information must be provided to Afghans through both media like radio and television and through other methods such as during Friday prayers and through universities and schools.



4

7. Electoral and Political Situation

A majority of Afghans (53%) believe the country needs a new electoral law. A plurality

of respondents (28%) believes the electoral law should be amended by the president in consultation with the National Assembly. Afghans are not enthusiastic about the

president amending the electoral law unilaterally, with only 9 percent supporting such a course of action. Afghans strongly support preventing candidates with links to illegally

armed groups from participating in future elections (73%).

More Afghans believe that members of parliament should be elected to represent provinces than specific districts, although there is a disparity between Afghans residing in

urban and rural areas. While only 13 percent of Afghans in living in urban areas believe MPs should represent districts, the number jumps to 30 percent for Afghans from rural

areas.

A majority of Afghans are not likely to support reconciliation with the Taliban or refused

to answer the question. Men are more likely than women to support reconciliation with the Taliban, and Pashtuns more likely than other ethnic groups.

An overwhelming majority of Afghans support withdrawal of U.S. forces from

Afghanistan by 2014 (62%), with men (67%) somewhat more likely than women (56%) to support withdrawal by 2014.



5

RESEARCH FINDINGS

Afghanistan has held four national elections since the fall of the Taliban. Afghans have voted twice to elect representatives to the Wolesi Jirga (the lower house of Afghanistan’s legislative body, the National Assembly) and twice in presidential elections. Unfortunately, each electoral

process has revealed significant flaws in the country’s democratic framework. The 2009 presidential election was marred by widespread fraud and significantly tarnished the legitimacy

of Afghanistan’s electoral management bodies. The 2010 parliamentary election was also fraud ridden and was characterized by the interference of an illegitimate ad-hoc special electoral court created through executive order. Both processes highlighted the need for comprehensive

electoral reform to create conditions that can increase the legitimacy of Afghanistan’s electoral outcomes.

Since 2009, Democracy International (DI) has worked to support the strengthening of Afghanistan’s electoral processes, both through international election observation missions as well as by supporting domestic advocacy for electoral reform. Currently, DI implements

USAID’s Afghanistan Electoral Reform and Civic Advocacy program (AERCA). AERCA’s two primary program components are to support Afghan led advocacy efforts for electoral and

democratic reform and to conduct research that can inform and encourage debate on electoral and democratic reform in Afghanistan. To contribute to the achievement of these objectives, DI has conducted some of the most comprehensive public opinion research on Afghan democracy to

date. This survey report contributes to this body of research by presenting the results of a survey of Afghan citizens on issues related to elections and civic education.

At the time of this report’s release, Afghanistan’s National Assembly was considering two laws which would govern the future administration of Afghan elections. The Law on the Duties and Structures of the IEC is currently being debated by a joint committee of Afghanistan’s Wolesi

Jirga and Meshrano Jirga. A new Electoral Law is also currently being debated by Afghanistan’s Wolesi Jirga. If adopted, these laws could help address some of the problems with Afghanistan’s

electoral framework. This survey attempts to understand citizen’s perceptions on ongoing electoral reform efforts and also attempts to understand how Afghans receive information about elections and what kind of information they think is most necessary. The findings can help

inform future civic education efforts in Afghanistan and provide both Afghan policy makers and the international community critical information related to Afghan governance and international

assistance for democratic strengthening.

This report details the findings from a nationwide public opinion survey conducted by DI in

INTRODUCTION



6

partnership with the National Center for Policy Research (NCPR) at Kabul University. DI and NCPR developed a 63-question survey instrument after extensive qualitative research. The

survey was administered to 4,000 randomly selected Afghans in all 34 of Afghanistan’s provinces from October 1 through November 20, 2012. DI conducted an extensive quality

control operation that lasted from mid-November through mid-January.

More than a decade into the war in Afghanistan, security is still a major concern for many Afghans. More Afghans see security as the biggest

problem facing their country (45%), but they are also pessimistic about the economic situation. Afghans cite unemployment (22%) followed by the poor economy and

poverty (19%) as the next biggest issues facing their country.

Security and economic concerns weigh differently among Afghans in different regions, however. A majority of Afghans living in the South (52%), East (54%), and South East (65%) regions say

security is the biggest problem facing their country, while only one-quarter of Afghans living in the Central Highlands (25%) and North East (28%) regions agree. This discrepancy is even more

noticeable when Afghans are asked about their concerns at the local level. Only Afghans from the South East say security issues are the biggest problem facing their local communities. In the North East and Central Highlands, less than five percent of Afghans say that it is the biggest

problem facing their local community.

Economic issues affect Afghans at the local level more than security. Afghans cite the poor

economy and poverty (23%) and unemployment (20%) as the biggest problems facing their local communities ahead of security issues, violence, and terrorism (16%). When asked about the next biggest problem facing their communities, Afghans say infrastructure and service delivery. They

cite the lack of roads (14%), lack of electricity (12%), poor education and literacy (10%), lack of health care centers (8%), and poor access to drinking water (7%) as major challenges their

communities face.

The pessimism Afghans feel toward the economic conditions of their country as a whole reflects these national and local concerns. Almost twice as many respondents (45%) describe the

economy as fairly bad or very bad as describe it as fairly good or very good (24%). As with security, however, the responses are inconsistent across regions. Residents in the South are the

most optimistic about the economy. This is the only region where the majority of respondents (68%) believe that the current economic conditions in the country as a whole are fairly or very good. Only a small minority of Afghans in the South (6%) believe economic conditions are fairly

or very bad. The opposite is true in the West, Central, South East, and East regions. In each, more than one-half of respondents describe the economy as fairly or very bad and only a

FINDINGS

ISSUES



7

minority of respondents (10%, 12%, 17%, and 23% respectively) describes it as fairly or very good.

Many Afghans continue to live in poor conditions. Across the country, almost one-third describe their living conditions as fairly or very bad (32%), and just more than one-quarter of respondents

(27%) describe them as fairly or very good. Here, as well, conditions vary across regions. The North East is the worst off with 42 percent of Afghans reporting their conditions as fairly or very bad. Even in the regions with the highest percentage of respondents reporting that they live in

decent living conditions—such as the North where 37 percent of people say they live in fairly or very good conditions—more than one-quarter of people still say they live in fairly or very bad

conditions (26%).

Despite these dire conditions, Afghans are evenly split between optimism and pessimism about the direction of their country. The same percentage of Afghans believes the country is headed in

the right direction (33%) as believe it is headed in the wrong direction (32%). Both sides point to security as the key condition shaping their response, further highlighting its continuing

importance as an issue in the daily lives of Afghans. Among those who believe their country is going in the right direction, the most common reason given is good security (34%) followed by good reconstruction (18%) and the opening of schools for girls (12%). Few respondents credit

better economic conditions (4%) or good government (5%) for their optimism. Afghans who are pessimistic about the direction of their country are most likely to blame insecurity (32%)

followed by administrative corruption (15%) and bad government (15%).

Afghan perceptions divide along class lines. Not surprisingly, wealthier and better-educated Afghans report better living conditions than their poorer and less-educated neighbors. Despite

their better quality of life, they are also more pessimistic about the future of Afghanistan. Afghans in the top income bracket strongly believe that their country is going in the wrong

direction (42%) rather than the right direction (23%). Their counterparts in the lowest income bracket disagree. More of them believe the country is going in the right direction (43%) rather than the wrong direction (33%). The same trend appears with regard to education level. Among

Afghans with at least some university education, twice as many believe their country is going in the wrong direction (44%) as believe it is going in the right direction (22%). Afghans with no

education, however, tend to believe that it is going in the right direction (37%) rather than the wrong direction (29%).

While they might not agree about the direction of the country, Afghans from all income and

education levels do agree about the direction of the economy. A plurality of each income bracket says that the Afghan economy is fairly or very bad with only slightly more pessimism among

wealthier Afghans. Likewise, Afghans with all levels of education agree that the economy is doing poorly, although more university-educated Afghans (59%) than uneducated Afghans (41%) describe it as fairly or very bad.

Nationwide, Afghans have a positive perception of their

democracy overall. While the general population clearly lacks confidence in some institutions, attitudes vary

greatly based on ethnicity and region. While 19 percent of respondents report dissatisfaction with

ATTITUDES ABOUT POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS



8

the elections process overall, 46 percent are either fairly or very satisfied with elections and 22 percent report that they are neither satisfied nor dissatisfied. Afghans report some level of

satisfaction with democracy in their country, with 39 percent saying they are fairly satisfied or very satisfied and 33 percent saying they are dissatisfied. Among those who report

dissatisfaction, 4 percent believe that there is no democracy in Afghanistan.

The survey indicates a variation between men and women, but ethnicity and location are even more important distinguishing factors in determining perceptions about democracy. Women are

more likely than men to have a positive perception of Afghan democracy. Among women, 43 percent report satisfaction with democracy compared to 35 percent of men. On the other side of

the spectrum, 40 percent of men report dissatisfaction with democracy compared to 25 percent of women.

Of the major ethnic groups living in Afghanistan, Pashtuns report the most dissatisfaction with

democracy (42%) and Hazaras report the most satisfaction (56%). The Uzbeks (52%) and Tajiks (40%) report lower rates of satisfaction with democracy in Afghanistan.

There is also a wide geographical variation in Afghans’ satisfaction with their democracy. The South reports the highest levels of dissatisfaction with democracy (55%), followed by the South East (42%), compared with 21 percent of Afghans from the North who report dissatisfaction with

democracy. The North East and North regions report the same level of satisfaction with democracy (55%). It is also notable that the odds of having higher rates of satisfaction with

democracy increase as confidence in governmental institutions and the legitimacy of elections increase.

TABLE 1. SATISFIED WITH DEMOCRACY

Note: This table presents the results of an ordered logistic regression model that examined the relationship between satisfaction with democracy and confidence in governmental institutions and the legitimacy of elections.

ODDS RATIO

STD. ERR.

Z P>Z [95% CONF. INTERVAL]

Legitimate Parliamentary Elections

1.597 0.197 3.79 0.000 1.254 2.036

Legitimate Presidential Elections

1.517 0.209 3.02 0.003 1.157 1.990

Confidence in President 1.360 0.187 2.23 0.026 1.037 1.782 Confidence in Provincial Governor

1.757 0.212 4.66 0.000 1.386 2.227

Confidence in Provincial Council

1.527 0.176 3.66 0.000 1.217 1.917



9

TABLE 2. SATISFIED WITH DEMOCRACY (2)

Note: This table indicates which categories of the population are more satisfied/dissatisfied (-) with democracy in Afghanistan.

Afghans have a higher level of confidence in the Afghan National Army (83%), the President (77%), and village leaders (76%) than in political parties (24%), local commanders (26%), and the judiciary (40%). When asked about their confidence in political parties, 33 percent of

Afghans responded “don’t know,” which could signify a general lack of knowledge about political parties in Afghanistan.

While approval for President Karzai was relatively high across all regions, reports from the South, where 51 percent say they have a lot of confidence and 43 percent say they have some confidence, are particularly high in comparison to other regions.

Of the fifteen institutions respondents were asked about, Afghans have the least amount of confidence in the Taliban, with only 15 percent of respondents stating they have some or a lot of

confidence in it. Among Pashtuns, 24 percent report some level of confidence in the Taliban compared to 10 percent of Tajiks, 9 percent of Hazaras, and 6 percent of Uzbeks.

Afghans’ dissatisfaction with the economy and their mixed

feelings about the direction of the country do not translate into dissatisfaction with President Karzai’s performance over the last 10 years. Nationwide, nearly 75 percent of Afghans approve of President Karzai’s

performance over the last ten years and only 19 percent disapprove. Slightly more women support Karzai (78%) than men (72%) and his support is stronger among members of his own

ethnic group, the Pashtuns (77%), and ethnic minorities (80%) than among Tajiks (72%), Uzbeks (74%), or Hazaras (72%), although still very strong.

The most striking variations in support for President Karzai can be found by examining

differences across geographic regions. His support is highest in the South, where 90 percent of residents express their support, and lowest in the West where only 59 percent of residents say they are satisfied with the president.

ODDS RATIO

STD. ERR.


Female 1.625 0.114 6.88 0.000 1.415 1.867

Hazara 2.049 0.263 5.58 0.000 1.592 2.636

Pashtun 0.686 0.056 -4.53 0.000 0.583 0.807 South 0.792 0.097 -1.90 0.058 0.623 1.007 North East 1.805 0.182 5.84 0.000 1.480 2.201

POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT AND EXPERIENCE WITH RECENT ELECTIONS



10

TABLE 3. SATISFIED WITH KARZAI’S PERFORMANCE IN PAST DECADE

Note: This table indicates which categories of the population are more likely to express satisfaction with the President’s performance in the past decade.

The majority of Afghans intend to participate in the next presidential election. More than three-quarters (76%) say they plan to vote, and less than one-eighth (12%) say they definitely do not plan to vote. Men are more likely to say they will participate (80%) than women (72%), and

voting intentions vary by ethnic group. Uzbeks and Hazaras report a much higher intention to vote (84% and 85%, respectively) than Pashtuns (69%). This suggests that the groups that are

less satisfied with Karzai’s performance may have a stronger incentive to vote in the next presidential election than those that are more satisfied. Better educated Afghans are more likely to say they will vote as well. Those with at least a primary school education are more likely to

say they plan to vote (83%) than those who never attended school (72%).

TABLE 4. WILL VOTE IN UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Note: This table indicates which categories of the population are more likely/less likely (-) to vote in the upcoming presidential election.

A more useful metric for gauging potential participation in upcoming elections may be if

Afghans believe their neighbors will participate. Most Afghans (58%) also believe that their neighbors will vote in the next presidential election, although they believe that their neighbors’

participation will be more muted than their own. Across all groups, neighbors’ expected participation follows the same patterns as individual expected participation, but at a lower level. Men and women have similar expectations about their neighbors’ participation (59% and 57%,

respectively) as do Afghans of different education levels about theirs. Among ethnic groups, however, there is substantial variation. Pashtuns have the lowest expectations for neighbors’

participation in the upcoming election (49%) and Uzbeks have the highest (72%).

ODDS RATIO

STD. ERR.


Female 1.581 0.163 4.42 0.000 1.290 1.937

Pashtun 1.289 0.141 2.33 0.020 1.040 1.598

South 2.886 0.608 5.03 0.000 1.909 4.363 Rural 1.834 0.204 5.43 0.000 1.473 2.283 Last Presidential Election Legitimate

5.060 0.523 15.69 0.000 4.132 6.197

ODDS RATIO

STD. ERR.


Male 1.327 0.140 2.69 0.007 1.079 1.633

Pashtun 0.461 0.050 -7.01 0.000 0.371 0.572 Uzbek 4.264 1.429 4.33 0.000 2.210 8.228 Hazara 1.914 0.483 2.57 0.010 1.166 3.142

Never Went to School 0.557 0.059 -5.48 0.000 0.452 0.687



11

The majority of Afghans say they plan to vote in the next parliamentary elections as well (70%), although this percentage is lower than for the presidential elections. Fewer women intend to vote

(63%) than men (76%). Pashtuns again are the ethnicity least likely to say they will vote (61%) and Hazaras (77%) and Uzbeks (79%) are the most likely. Educated Afghans report they will

vote in higher numbers. Afghans with a high school or university education say they are much more inclined to participate (78% and 76%, respectively) than those with no schooling at all (65%).

As with the presidential elections, Afghans believe their neighbors are less likely to vote in the next parliamentary elections than they are. Only slightly more than half (54%) say their

neighborhood will turn out and vote. Afghans have similar expectations of their neighbors’ turnout across gender and education level. Once again, Pashtuns have the lowest expectations about their neighbors’ participation (46%) and Uzbeks have the highest (65%).

In preparation for previous elections, nearly two-thirds of

Afghans received either an insufficient amount of information (35%) or no information at all (24%). Only 25

percent of all respondents believe they received a sufficient amount of information to participate

on election day. There is a moderate gender gap among those who received no information, with 28 percent of women reporting they received no information compared to only 21 percent of

men. The percentage of Afghans that received a sufficient level of information also increases with higher levels of education. Only 19 percent of Afghans with no education fall into this category, while almost half (49%) of university-educated respondents believe they received

enough pre-election information.

When asked specifically about the level of information they received about candidates for the

latest (2010) parliamentary elections, response rates are similar. Out of eligible respondents who participated in the previous elections, only 26 percent of Afghans believe they received sufficient information, while the remaining respondents received either insufficient (36%) or no (30%)

information. Even fewer believe they received sufficient information about political parties (13%) during the last parliamentary elections, with the number of Afghans receiving no

information about political parties at a striking 40 percent. Far fewer Afghans in the South received sufficient information about either candidates (3%) or political parties (1%) than any other region.

The numbers are also similar for information about candidates in the latest presidential election (2009). A slightly higher percentage report receiving a sufficient amount of information (29%),

but once again a plurality did not receive sufficient information (36%), and 25 percent received no information at all.

Most Afghans report an average-to-poor level of information about representatives and

legislation in parliament. Only 20 percent claim to be well informed about their particular representative and even fewer are well informed about legislative activity (9%). The results are

fairly similar across age groups, and levels of information only change slightly with higher household monthly income. For Afghans with household incomes over 15,000 Afs, 24 percent are well informed about their representative compared to 20 percent of those with household

INFORMATION AND AWARENESS



12

incomes under 2,000 Afs. An almost equal percentage of these two groups are well informed about legislative activity, but the highest difference is among those reporting a moderate level of

information. While 34 percent of Afghans with the highest household income are somewhat informed, only 17 percent of those with the lowest income are.

Radio and television are the two most popular sources of election information in Afghanistan. More than one-third of all Afghans cite radio (35%) as their most effective source, followed closely by television (30%). Village elders are a distant third at 13 percent. However, most

responses for village elders come from rural (17%) rather than urban (3%) settings. Radio and television also vary considerably by setting. Nearly two-thirds of urban respondents (63%) select

television as their most effective source of information, compared to only 19 percent of rural Afghans. Conversely, radio is the most effective for 41 percent of rural respondents, yet only 18 percent of urban Afghans feel the same way. Neither political parties nor candidate campaigns

have much traction as a primary source of information, regardless of setting or demographic. For all Afghans, only 5 percent cite candidates as their most effective source, and less than 1 percent

cite political parties. Yet, candidate campaigns are an effective secondary source of information for 16 percent of all Afghans, the second most popular response behind only village elders (18%). Mullahs or teachers are cited by 15 percent of all Afghans as their second most effective

source.

Only 32 percent of all Afghans have attended a community or village event about elections in the

last three years. Results are similar across rural and urban settings. Yet, response rates for those having attended an election event vary considerably by region, with a high of 61 percent among respondents in the East and a low of 5 percent among Afghans in the South. There is a gender

gap as well, as far fewer women (26%) report attending these events than men (37%).

Most Afghans believe that their community is somewhat or well informed about a number of

important procedural issues for elections. Voter registration is the most understood, with 42 percent of Afghans claiming that their community is well informed about this process, and 37 percent believing they are somewhat informed. Similarly, 40 percent believe their community is

well informed about the location of polling stations, followed closely by 38 percent who believe they are somewhat informed. For the two questions about how to vote in presidential and

parliamentary elections, responses are almost identical: 31 percent claim that their community is well informed on the former, and 30 percent for the latter. Less than one-quarter of respondents disagree and believe that their community is not well informed about either presidential (20%) or

parliamentary (20%) elections. Communities in the North and South regions have the highest rates of being well informed about voter registration, polling station locations, how to vote for

president, voting in parliamentary elections.

Responses were slightly less positive for two important issues: the filing of electoral complaints and the role of the Independent Election Commission. Only 14 percent of Afghans believe their

community is well informed about how to file a complaint with the Provincial Electoral Complaints Commission, compared to 40 percent who believe their community is not well

informed at all. Community knowledge about the role of the Independent Election Commission was not much higher: 17 percent of Afghans say their community is well informed, while 33 percent say their community is not well informed. Once again, results vary by region. Afghans in

the East region report their communities are well informed about filing complaints (18%) and the



13

role of the election commission (22%). But communities in the South far outpaced every other region on these two categories, with 48 percent saying that their communities in the South were

well informed about complaints, and 63 percent claiming they were well informed about the election commission. Results also vary significantly with ethnicity for these two categories.

While 22 percent of Pashtuns claim that their communities were well informed about complaints, only 7 percent of Tajiks and 6 percent of Uzbeks believe the same. Similarly, Pashtuns were much more likely to claim that their communities were well informed about the election

commission (27%) than any of the other ethnic groups, none of whom give their communities marks above 13 percent for the same category.

Half of Afghans report that they agree (24%) or strongly agree (26%) that the last National Assembly elections

(2010) were legitimate in their communities. Those who believe the election result was legitimate give credit to good security, freedom to vote without

intimidation, and lack of electoral fraud. Among the 27 percent of people who disagree (16%) or strongly disagree (11%) that elections were legitimate, the primary delegitimizing factors were electoral fraud, poor security, and the success of unqualified candidates.

Overall, more Afghans found the last presidential election result (2009) to be legitimate than the last National Assembly election result (2010). A total of 57 percent of Afghans nationwide found

the presidential election result to be legitimate, with 26 percent agreeing and 31 percent strongly agreeing. The reasons cited for the legitimacy and illegitimacy of the election result were almost the same as those given for the National Assembly election result. The top three most important

are that people were able to vote freely, that there was good security, and that there was no vote fraud. Those who believed the election was illegitimate most commonly cited vote fraud,

followed by poor security and obscure voting procedures.

Perceptions about the legitimacy of the elections vary significantly based on ethnicity and geography. More Uzbeks than any other major ethnic group in Afghanistan found both the last

National Assembly elections and presidential election to be legitimate with 44 percent saying the last presidential election was legitimate and 46 percent saying the same of the National

Assembly elections. By comparison, 36 percent and 32 percent of Hazaras believe the presidential election in 2009 and National Assembly elections in 2010 were legitimate, respectively, with only 29 percent and 31 percent of Tajiks and only 15 percent and 27 percent of

Pashtuns, respectively.

Large disparities in views of legitimacy also exist at the regional level. While 54 percent of

Afghans in the South report they disagree or strongly disagree that the National Assembly election of 2010 was legitimate, only 11 percent of people from the North report the same. The West region has the second highest view of the National Assembly elections as illegitimate

(38%). For the presidential elections (2009), perceptions of legitimacy were higher, but a similar pattern exists across the regions. In the South, 29 percent of Afghans disagree or strongly

disagree that the 2009 presidential elections were legitimate, followed by 28 percent in the West. Only 10 percent in the North hold the same view.

LEGITIMACY OF ELECTIONS



14

Afghans say they would be more likely to vote if they were better informed about the election process and candidates.

When asked what specific kinds of information would be most useful to receive before future elections, the majority of Afghans (80%) say they want more

information about the candidates. Many Afghans also want more information about the location of polling stations (42%), security arrangements to protect voters (47%), Islam and election (30%), how to vote for their candidates (28%), and information about voter registration (23%).

They do not want a drawn out election season, however. Most Afghans (62%) want election coverage to begin between one month and three months before election day.

Radio and Friday prayer are the best ways to get election-related information to Afghan voters. A majority of Afghans say one of their preferred or most preferred vehicles for information are radio advertisements (85%) and talk radio (80%). Television is slightly less popular (75%),

which is not surprising considering more Afghan households own radios (72%) than televisions (51%). Friday prayer at mosques is a very popular forum for Afghans to receive election-related

information with 81 percent of Afghans reporting it is one of their preferred or most preferred ways to receive such information. Other popular election information sources are events and lectures (80%), schools and universities (73%), and through local women’s groups (66%).

Afghans are somewhat less receptive when election information comes directly from the government (59%) or from international organizations such as the United Nations (42%).

Different methods of communication best reach different segments of the population. Afghans over the age of 55 more strongly prefer to receive information during Friday prayer than those under 25. Conversely, Afghans under 25 are more receptive to information from schools and

universities than their elders. Better educated Afghans more often prefer receiving information by television and are more receptive to information from international organizations and print

media. Poorer Afghans more strongly prefer to listen to the radio and get information from Friday prayer services than their more wealthy counterparts.

The vast majority of Afghans—77 percent—report they are unfamiliar

with the function of the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC). Of the 16 percent that are familiar with the ECC, only 40 percent are satisfied with its performance. Afghans who have a university education have a

higher rate of familiarity than the nationwide average, suggesting that knowledge of the ECC may be correlated with education. Three times as many university educated respondents (32%)

are familiar with the ECC as those who never attended school (10%). The variation is even greater by region. In the South, 97 percent report they are unfamiliar with the ECC’s function. Of the 16 percent of Afghans who are familiar with the function of the ECC, 17 percent filed a

complaint during the last election. Of these, 47 percent report that the complaint was resolved.

Just over half (53%) of the population believes Afghanistan needs a new electoral law while only

12 percent say the country does not and 31 percent say they don’t know. When asked whether a new electoral law will be adopted before the next national election, one-half (50%) say they don’t know, while only 31 percent believe that it will be adopted and 14 percent say it will not.

VOTER EDUCATION

ELECTORAL AND POLITICAL SITUATION



15

A plurality of respondents (28%) believes the electoral law should be amended by the National Assembly in consultation with the president. Afghans are not enthusiastic about the president

amending the electoral law unilaterally, with only 9 percent supporting such a course of action.

More Afghans believe that members of parliament (MPs) should be elected to represent

provinces (63%) rather than represent specific districts (26%). This pattern is consistent across regions, gender, education level, and household income, although the degree of agreement varies. The data suggest that there could be a relationship between rural-urban settings and the

preference of MP representation. While 74 percent of the urban population believes MPs should represent provinces and only 13 percent believe they should represent districts, 60 percent of the

rural population state MPs should represent provinces and 30 percent believe district representation would be better for Afghanistan.

A solid majority believe it is important—56 percent report that it is very important and 16

percent report that it is somewhat important—to prevent candidates with previous or current associations with armed anti-government elements from running in elections. Of those who do

not agree, 11 percent are undecided on the issue.

When asked about their own support for reconciliation with the Taliban and other insurgent groups in Afghanistan, the nationwide results are again divided and ethnicity appears to be an

important variable. Pashtuns are the most supportive of reconciliation with the Taliban and other insurgent groups with 58 percent stating they would likely give their support. Comparatively, 46

percent of Tajiks, 49 percent of Uzbeks, and 43 percent of Hazaras report that they are not likely to support reconciliation with the Taliban.

Lack of support for the Taliban does not, however, mean support for the presence of

international forces in Afghanistan. Across Afghanistan there is strong support for the withdrawal of international forces in 2014. Nationwide, 62 percent of Afghans want forces to

withdraw and only 24 percent do not. Three of the four major ethnic groups do not vary much in their support for withdrawal, but the Hazaras stand out with their lower rate of support. While 77 percent of Uzbeks support the withdrawal of international forces followed by 66 percent of

Pashtuns, and 60 percent of Tajiks, only 35 percent of Hazaras agree. Additionally, only 21 percent of the population located in the Central Highlands region—including Bamyan and

Daykundi provinces—report support for withdrawal in 2014, which is likely correlated with the large population of Hazaras that live in the area. In all other regions of Afghanistan, the majority of Afghans support the withdrawal, although the level of support varies widely at the provincial

level.

Many respondents responded that they ‘don’t know’ in response to many questions in this

section. Women responded this way more frequently than men. For instance, when asked who should be responsible for amending the electoral law, 32 percent of women selected don’t know compared with only 18 percent of men. When asked which political coalition in Afghanistan was

best organized, 39 percent of women selected don’t know, compared to 21 percent of men. The frequency of this response likely indicates a large gap in understanding of the electoral system

among Afghans, and particularly among women.



16

This report details the results of a nationwide public opinion survey on political, electoral and civic education issues conducted by Democracy International and Afghanistan’s National Center

for Policy Research. The survey revealed that after more than ten years of war, security remains a key concern for Afghans, but economic issues are equally important, particularly at the local

level. Despite the daily challenges Afghans face, the population is split between thinking their country is headed in the wrong direction and the right direction. The problems Afghans face in their daily lives also do not seem to tarnish their view of President Karzai, who enjoys

widespread support.

Despite ongoing efforts of the Afghan government and the international community to promote

reconciliation with the Taliban, the Afghan public does not support such initiatives. In fact, they overwhelmingly view the Taliban negatively and feel strongly that armed insurgents, either former or present, should not be permitted to participate as candidates in elections. Afghan and

international policy makers must attempt to reframe reconciliation with the Taliban if such efforts are to be successful, as support from the Afghan public will be critical to the

sustainability of a reconciliation agreement.

The survey also shows that with elections upcoming in 2014 and 2015, much work is needed to strengthen both the confidence and understanding Afghans have in elections. The Government of

Afghanistan and the international community must do more to provide Afghans quality information on the role of their electoral institutions and the election process more generally,

including on voting procedures, candidates, campaigns, and the importance of participation. Providing Afghans more information on elections will build citizen ownership of elections, broaden participation and make election outcomes in Afghanistan more representative of the will

of the Afghan people. This must be a priority for the Government of Afghanistan and the international community if future Afghan elections are to be more representative and if their

outcomes are to be respected.

In addition, the Government of Afghanistan should work to amend the country’s electoral law in an inclusive fashion, as the majority of Afghans believe the law needs to be amended and should

not be done so through presidential decree. The Government of Afghanistan should seize this opportunity to build confidence in the legal framework for elections and support a transparent

and inclusive legislative process to adopt a new law. The adoption of a new electoral law through democratic procedures and increased civic education for elections could help repair the tarnished view Afghans have of elections in their country and strengthen their view of their country’s

democracy, building a more sustainable democratic framework for Afghanistan’s future.

CONCLUSION

|

A-1 A SURVEY OF PUBLIC PERCEPTION ON ELECTIONS AND


MALE/FEMALE

Source: Central Statistics Organization, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. Statistical Yearbook 2011-12.

AGE


ETHNICITY

Source: Central Intelligence Agency. The World Factbook, updated March 26, 2013.

ETHNICITY DI SURVEY % CSO % DIFFERENCE % Male 51.2 51 0.2

Female 48.8 49 -0.2

Total 100 100

AGE DI SURVEY % CSO CENSUS: AGE CSO CENSUS % 18-24 30.2 15-24 17

25-34 28.3 25-34 13

35-44 18.2 35-44 9 45-54 13.2 45-54 7

55+ 10.1 55+ 8

Total 100 Total 54

ETHNICITY DI SURVEY % FACTBOOK % DIFFERENCE % Pashtun 41.5 42 0.5 Tajik 34.8 27 -7.8

Uzbek 9.4 9 -0.4 Hazara 9.3 9 -0.3 Turkmen 1.7 3 1.3

Baloch 0.6 2 1.4 Others 2.6 8 5.4 Refused 0.1

Total 100 100

ANNEX A: DEMOGRAPHICS

|

A-2 A SURVEY OF PUBLIC PERCEPTION ON ELECTIONS AND


URBAN/RURAL


*There are approximately 1.5 million nomadic people in Afghanistan not counted in these figures.

URBAN/ RURAL DI SURVEY % CSO % DIFFERENCE %

Urban 23.8 22.2 -1.6

Rural 76.2 72 -4.2

Total 100.00 94 .2*

|

B-1 A SURVEY OF PUBLIC PERCEPTION ON ELECTIONS AND


DI’s research team conducted an extensive desk review of the existing literature on issues related

to electoral civic education in Afghanistan before compiling the survey questions. DI staff also conducted two focus group discussions with members of the following organizations: National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, The Asia Foundation, Afghanistan Women’s

Network, Afghanistan Civil Society Forum Organization, and Free and Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan in order to explore critical issues related to the content of the survey. DI compiled

a total of 63 questions including demographics, most of which were closed-ended. The questionnaire was divided into seven main thematic sections, excluding basic demographic data: (1) main concerns affecting people’s daily lives, (2) attitudes about political institutions, (3)

political engagement and experience with recent elections, (4) information and awareness about elections, (5) legitimacy, (6) voter education, and (7) the electoral and political situation in the

country. The questionnaire was translated into Dari and Pashto.

DI pilot-tested the questionnaire before beginning fieldwork to ensure the clarity of individual questions and to identify issues that might affect the survey quality. DI pilot-tested a total of 25

questionnaires, 15 questionnaires in 3 urban districts: Qala-e-Wakil (District 5), Qala-e-Zaman Khan (District 9), and Cahrahi Qamber (District 16) of Kabul city and 10 questionnaires in the

two rural areas of Husain Khail and Kamari villages in Bagrami District. The questionnaire was modified based on the results of this pretest. During the pretest, the average time for survey administration was between 30 and 35 minutes.

With a sample size of 4,000 out of a population of approximately 25,000,000, the survey has a margin of error of ±1.55% at a 95% confidence level with an estimate of 50 percent response distribution. To minimize the margin of error at the provincial level, DI created a random

sampling plan which was stratified according to province, urban-rural divide, and gender using the 2011–12 population data from Afghanistan’s Central Statistics Organization as reference.

A total of 400 sampling points were distributed with 10 interviews per each sample point. The Sheharwali—the municipal administration in Afghanistan—defines the urban population as those living within municipal limits (nahia). By default, the rural population comprises those who are

ANNEX B: METHODOLOGY

THE QUESTIONNAIRE

SAMPLING

|



living outside the municipal limits. The rural areas are defined neither in terms of population density nor remoteness. In rural areas, each sample point represented a village. In each province,

the number of sampling points was equally divided to accommodate having enumerators and respondents from the same gender in order to adhere to Afghan cultural practices.

The survey stratification included the following sampling plan:

1) Provincial level: Proportional fixed sample size in all provinces. 2) Urban/Rural level: Proportional to urban/rural population size in each province.

3) District level: Random selection in each province proportional to the number of districts demarcated in each province.

4) Intra-district level: Random selection of settlements in each district. 5) Gender distribution: Proportional to gender ratio, 1:1 in each province.

All data collection field staff were recruited by National Center for Policy Research (NCPR) at Kabul University, a DI sub-contractor. A total of 3 general coordinators, 12 regional

coordinators, 37 supervisors, and 170 enumerators (male and female) were deployed. DI dispatched 27 quality-control officers to verify fieldwork conducted by NCPR in each province.

The data collection commenced on October 1, 2012 and was completed by November 20. DI conducted an extensive quality control operation that lasted from mid November through mid-January.

At each sampling point, enumerators and supervisors picked easily recognizable landmarks, such as a bazaar, school, or mosque, as the starting point of the survey. In urban areas, enumerators

traveled in an assigned direction, stopped at the third street on the right hand side and selected the first house on the right. Systematic random sampling was used for selection of households by dividing the total number of households with the total number of sample units (to 10) with an

assigned random start. In settlements with more than 100 households, a fixed interval (10) was applied to normally adequate the sampling distribution within the settlement. Similarly in rural

areas, enumerators turned right from landmark starting points and selected the third house.

HOUSEHOLD SELECTION

INTERVIEWS

|



Interviewers used a Kish grid method to randomly select household members from various age

groups to avoid having interviewed mostly heads of household. A Kish grid was drawn with instructions on the first page of each questionnaire for enumerators to utilize while selecting the

respondents in the field.

Substitution of respondents was allowed in accordance with the Kish Grid. Interviewers were instructed to move on to the next right side house if the respondent refused to participate or were

not available after three callback attempts. During fieldwork, 85 percent of interviews were completed on the first attempt, 12 percent on the second attempt, and 3 percent on the third

attempt.

To strengthen field data quality, DI’s research team assembled a quality-control (QC) team to visit random sampling points in 34 provinces. DI’s QC team visited 61 sampling points total in

60 districts located in all provinces. The QC team conducted back-checking on 186 households out of the total 3,986 samples. Field supervisors monitored and supervised 15 percent of overall

interviews. Supervisors also revisited sampling points to back-check another 15 percent of the completed interviews. Field supervisors also reviewed 5 percent of completed questionnaires through a standard back-check form.

The final dataset was weighted using raking algorithm. The algorithm was stratified according to

provincial population size, rural-urban divide, as well as gender.

The research team is composed of DI’s international and Afghan research staff based in Kabul. Team members include Jed Ober, Dr. Silvia Susnjic, Dr. Mohammad Sediq Baraky, Sayed Yasin

Hosainy, Fauzia Rahimi Jamal, Mohammad Hassan Wafaey, Sabawoon Ahmadzai, and Yasar Ahmadzai.

QUALITY CONTROL

RESEARCH TEAM

RESPONDENT SELECTION

WEIGHTING AND DATA ANALYSIS

|

C-1 A SURVEY OF PUBLIC PERCEPTION ON ELECTIONS AND


ANNEX C: REGIONAL MAP

|

D-1 A SURVEY OF PUBLIC PERCEPTION ON ELECTIONS AND


1. ISSUE AREAS

DO YOU OWN ANY OF THE FOL L OWING HERE IN YOUR HOUSEHOL D? ( SEL ECT AL L THAT APPL Y)

Radio 1

Television 2

Mobile phone 3

Automobile 4 Motorcycle 5

None of the above 0

Don’t Know 999

Refused 998

IN YOUR VIEW, WHAT IS THE BIGGEST PROBL EM FACING AFGHANISTAN AS A WHOL E?

[I NTERVI EWER: DO NOT READ CODES, SELECT TWO RESPONSE]

WHAT IS THE NEXT BIGGEST PROBL EM?

1 .2 .1 : 1ST

MENTI ONED 1 .2 .2 : 2N D

MENTI ONED

Security issues/violence/terrorism 1 1

Poor economy and Poverty 2 2

Unemployment 3 3

Education/schools/Literacy 4 4

Government/weak authority 5 5

Lack of electricity 6 6

Corruption committed by authorities 7 7

Roads 8 8

Health care 9 9

Drinking water 10 10

Crime 11 11

Other [If other, specify below] 11 11

Other:

Don’t know 999 999

Refused 998 998

THINK ABOUT YOUR L OC AL AREA AND YOUR COMMUNITY. WHAT IS THE BIGGEST PROBL EM

FACING YOUR COMMUNITY? [INTERVIEWER: DO NOT READ CODES , SEL ECT TWO RESP ONSE]

ANNEX D: INSTRUMENT

|



WHAT IS THE NEXT BIGGEST PROBL EM IN YOUR COMMUNITY?

1.3.1. : Mentioned 1st

1.3.2. : Mentioned 2nd

Security issues/violence/terrorism 1 1

Poor economy and Poverty 2 2

Unemployment 3 3

Education/schools/Literacy 4 4

Government/weak authority/Corruption 5 5

Lack of electricity 6 6

Roads 7 7

Health care 8 8

Drinking water 9 9

Crime 10 10

Other [If other, specify below] 11 11

Other:


Refused 998 998

GENERAL L Y SPEAKING DO YOU THINK AFGHANISTAN TODAY IS GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION

OR IN THE WRONG DIRECTION:

Right Direction (Continue) 3

Wrong Direction >> 1.6 1

Some in right, some in wrong >> 1.6 2

Refused >> 1.7 998

Don’t know >> 1.7 999

***

[FI LTERED: I F “RI GHT DI RECTI ON” I N Q 1.4 ]. WHY DO YOU THINK THE COUNTRY IS MOVING IN

THE RIGHT DIRECTION?

[I NTERVI EWER: SELECT TWO RESPONSE. DO NOT READ CODES.]

Good security 1

Good reconstruction 2

Better economic conditions 3

Schools for girls have opened 4

Good government 5

International assistance 6

Travel possible 7

Peace/end of war 8

Having a good constitution 9

Democracy/Elections 10

Other [If Other, specify] 11

Other:

Don’t know 999

Refused 998

|



***

[FI LTERED: I F “WRONG DI RECTI ON I N Q 1 .4 ]: WHY DO YOU SAY THAT THINGS ARE MOVING IN

THE WRONG DIRECTION?

[I NTERVI EWER: SELECT ONE RESPONSE. DO NOT READ CODES.]

No reconstruction has occurred 1

Lack of aid 2

Insecurity 3

Bad Government 4

Bad Economy 5

Presence of Taliban 6

Innocent people being kil led 7

Administrative Corruption 8

Poor education system 9

Neighboring countries cause problems 10

Other [If Other, specify] 11

Other:

Don’t Know 999

Refused 998

Very Bad

Fairly Bad

Neither

Good nor bad

Fairly good

Very good

Don’t Know

Refused

IN GENERAL , HOW WOUL D YOU

DESCRIBE THE PRESENT

ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

OF AFGHANISTAN AS

WHOL E COUNTRY?

1 2 3 4 5 999 998

IN GENERAL , HOW WOUL D YOU

DESCRIBE YOUR OWN

PRESENT L IVING

CONDITIONS?

1 2 3 4 5 999 998

ATTITUDES ABOUT POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS

OVERAL L , HOW SATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY DEMOCRACY WORKS IN AFGHANISTAN ?

[I NTERVI EWER: READ O UT OPTI ONS. ONLY ONE OPTI ON TO BE CHOSEN]

Very Satisfied 5

Fairly Satisfied 4

Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied 3

|



Not Satisfied 2

Not at all Satisfied 1

No Democracy in Afghanistan [Do Not Read] 0

Don’t Know 999

Refused 998

PL EASE TEL L ME GENERAL L Y WHETHER YOU HAV E A L OT, SOME OR NO CONFIDENCE IN THE

FOL L OWING:

A lot of

confidence Some

confidence No

confidence

Don’t know/not

sure Refused

YOUR DISTRICT GOVERN OR 1 2 3 999 998

THE PRESIDENT 1 3 3 999 998

THE WOL ESI JIRGA 1 2 3 999 998

THE MEDIA 1 2 3 999 998

POL ICE 1 2 3 999 998

AFGHAN NATIONAL ARMY 1 2 3 999 998

PROVINCIAL GOVERNOR 1 2 3 999 998

YOUR NEIGHBORS 1 2 3 999 998

VIL L AGE L EADER

(MAL IK/ARBAB/KHAN/QA R

YADAR)

1 2 3 999 998

L OCAL COMMANDERS

(WARL OARD/UNOFFICIAL )

IN YOUR AREA

1 2 3 999 998

TAL IBAN 1 2 3 999 998

THE INDEPENDENT EL EC TION

COMMISSION 1 2 3 999 998

THE JUDICIARY 1 2 3 999 998

THE PROVINCIAL COUNC IL 1 2 3 999 998

POL ITICAL PARTIES 1 2 3 999 998

OVERAL L , HOW SATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY EL ECTIONS WORK IN AFGHANISTAN?

[I NTERVI EWER: READ OUT OPTI ONS. ONLY ONE OPTI ON TO BE CHOSEN]

Very Satisfied 5

Fairly Satisfied 4

Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied 3

Not Satisfied 2

Not at all Satisfied 1

|



Don’t Know 999

Refused 998

POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT AND EXPERIENCE WITH RECENT

ELECTIONS

DO YOU PL AN TO VOTE IN THE NEXT EL ECTION FOR PRESIDENT?

Yes 1

No 0

Don’t know 999

Refused 998

HOW SATISFIED ARE YO U WITH THE PERFORMAN CE OF PRESIDENT KARZAI IN THE L AST TEN

YEARS?

Very Satisfied 4

Satisfied 3

Dissatisfied 2

Very dissatisfied 1

Don’t know 999

Refused 998

IN YOUR OPINION, WIL L MOST PEOPL E IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD TURN OUT AND VOTE IN THE

NEXT PRESIDENTIAL EL ECTIO NS OR WIL L THEY STAY HOME?

Most people will vote 1 Most people stay at home and will not vote 2

Don’t Know 999

Refused 998

IN YOUR OPINION, WIL L MOST PEOPL E IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD TURN OUT AND VOTE IN THE

NEXT NATIONAL ASSEMBL Y EL ECTIONS OR WIL L THEY STAY HOME?

Most people will vote 1

Most people stay at home and will not vote 2

Don’t Know 999

Refused 998

DO YOU PL AN TO VOTE IN THE NEXT NATIONAL ASSEMBL Y EL ECTIONS?

Yes 1

No 0

Don’t Know 999

Refused 998

|



INFORMATION AND AWARENESS

DO YOU FEEL THAT YOU RECEIVED SUFFICIENT INFORMATION TO PREPA RE YOU TO VOTE IN THE

PREVIOUS EL ECTIONS (PRESIDENTIAL /PARL IAMEN TARY)?

I was too young to vote (skip to >> 4.6) 0

Yes, I received sufficient information 1

No, I did not receive sufficient information 2

Received no information 3

Don’t know 999

Refused 998

WHAT IS THE MOST EFFECTIVE SOURCE OF INFORMATION REGARDIN G L AST EL ECTION S

(PRESIDENTIAL /PARL IA M ENTA RY)?

Please tell me the second most effective source? ( allow up to 2 responses)

4.2.1 4.2.2

Radio 1 1

Television 2 2

Newspaper or other print media 3 3 Village Elders 4 4

Mullahs or Teachers 5 5

Candidate Campaigns 6 6

Political Parties 7 7

Friends and Family 8 8

Election education session/meetings 9 9

Other (Write Down) 10 10


Refused 998 998

DO YOU FEEL YOU RECEIVED A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF INFORMATION ABOUT THE CANDIDATES

IN THE L AST (1389) NATIONAL ASSEMBL Y EL ECTIONS?




Don’t know 999

Refused 998

DID YOU RECEIVE A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF INFORMATION ABOUT POL ITICAL PARTIES IN THE

L AST (1389) NATIONAL ASSEMBL Y EL ECTIONS?




|



Don’t know 999

Refused 998

DID YOU RECEIVE A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF INFORMATION ABOUT CANDIDATES IN THE L AST

(1388) PRESIDENTIAL EL ECTIO NS?

Yes, I received sufficient information 1 No, I did not receive sufficient information 2


Don’t know 999

Refused 998

IN THE L AST THREE YEARS, HA VE YOU ATTENDED ANY EVENTS THAT EXPL AIN ABOUT EL ECTIONS

IN YOUR COMMUNITY/VIL L AGE?

Yes 1

No 0

Don’t know 999

Refused 998

DO YOU FEEL WEL L INFORMED ABOUT THE CURRENT REPRESENTATIVES FROM YOUR PROVINCE

IN PARL IAMENT?

Yes, I am well informed 1

I am somewhat informed 2

I am not well informed 3

Don’t know 999

Refused 998

DO YOU FEEL WEL L INFORMED ABOUT THE L EGISL ATIVE ACTIVITY OF THE NATIONAL ASSEMBL Y?

Yes, I am well informed 1

I am somewhat informed 2

I am not well informed 3

Don’t know 999

Refused 998

HOW WEL L INFORMED DO YOU BEL IEVE PEOPL E IN YOUR L OCAL COMMUNITY ARE ON THE

FOL L OWING ISSUES?

Well

informed

Somewhat

informed

Not well

informed

Refused

HOW TO REGISTER TO V OTE (E.G. VOTER

REGISTRATION CARD) 3 2 1 998

THE L OCATION OF POL L ING STATIONS 3 2 1 998

HOW TO VOTE IN PRESIDENTIAL EL ECTIONS 3 2 1 998

HOW TO VOTE IN PARL IAMENTARY EL ECTIONS 3 2 1 998

|



HOW TO FIL E A COMPL A INT WITH THE PROVINC IAL

EL ECTORAL COMPL AINTS COMMISSION 3 2 1 998

THE ROL E OF INDEPENDENT EL ECTION COMMISSION 3 2 1 998

LEGITIMACY

THE EL ECTION RESUL T IN MY COMMUNITY WAS L EGITIMATE IN THE L AST (1389 ) NATIONAL

ASSEMBL Y EL ECTIONS

Strongly Agree (continue to 5.2) 1

Somewhat Agree (continue to 5.2) 2

Disagree (skip to >> 5.3) 3

Strongly Disagree (skip to >> 5.3) 4

Don’t know 999

Refused 998

I F THE ANSWER I N Q 5 .1 I S ‘1 ’ OR ‘2 ’ (AGREE): TEL L ME THE MOST IMPORTANT REASONS YOU

THINK THE VOTING RESUL T WAS L EGITIMATE IN THE 1389 NATIONAL ASSEMBL Y

EL ECTIONS. (READ AL L : SEL ECT UP TO THREE ANSWERS)

No vote fraud 1

People were allowed to vote freely, without intimidation 2

Security was good 3

Election observers were present 4

Because my candidate was elected 5

Qualified candidates won 6

All voting procedures were clear 7

Voting stations were easily accessible 8

The voting was lawfully conducted 9

Others (Write down) 10

Don’t know 999

Refused 998

I F THE ANSWER I N Q 5 .1 I S ‘3 ’ OR ‘4 ’ (DI SAGREE): TEL L ME THE MOST IMPORTANT REASONS YOU

THINK THE VOTING RESUL T WAS NOT L EGITIMATE IN THE 13 89 NATIONAL ASSEMBL Y

EL ECTIONS. (READ AL L : SEL ECT UP TO THREE ANSWERS)

There was vote fraud 1

People were not threatened not to vote 2

Security was not good 3

Election observers were not present 4

Because my candidate was not elected 5

Un-qualified candidates won 6

|



All voting procedures were obscure 7

Voting stations were not accessible 8

The voting was lawfully conducted 9 Politicians committed bribery and vote buying 10

No qualified candidates were available to elect 11


Don’t know 999

Refused 998

THE VOTING RESUL T IN MY COMMUNITY WAS L EGITIMATE IN THE L AST (1388) PRESIDENTIAL

EL ECTIONS.

Strongly Agree (continue to 5.5) 1

Somewhat Agree (continue to 5.5) 2

Disagree (skip to >> 5.6) 3

Strongly Disagree (skip to >> 5.6) 4 Don’t know 999

Refused 998

I F THE ANSWER I N Q 5 .4 I S ‘1 ’ OR ‘2 ’ (AGREE): TEL L ME THE MOST IMPORTANT REASONS YOU

THINK THE VOTING RESUL T WAS L EGITIMATE IN THE 1388 PRESIDENTIAL EL ECTIO NS.

(READ AL L : SEL ECT UP TO THREE ANSWERS)

No vote fraud 1 People were allowed to vote freely 2

Security was good 3

Election observers were present 4

Because my candidate was elected 5

Qualified candidates won 6

All voting procedures were clear 7

Voting stations were easily accessible 8

The voting was lawfully conducted 9


Refused 998

I F THE ANSWER I N Q 5 .4 I S 3 OR 4 (DI SAGREE): TEL L ME THE MOST IMPORTANT REASONS YOU

THINK THE VOTING RESUL T WAS NOT L EGITIMATE IN THE 13 88 PRESIDENTIAL EL ECTIO NS.

(READ AL L : SEL ECT UP TO THREE ANSWERS)

There was vote fraud 1

People were not threatened not to vote 2

Security was not good 3

Election observers were not present 4

Because my candidate was not elected 5

|



Un-qualified candidates won 6

All voting procedures were obscure 7

Voting stations were not accessible 8 The voting was lawfully conducted 9

Politicians committed bribery and vote buying 10

No qualified candidates were available to elect 11


Don’t know 999

Refused 998

VOTER EDUCATION

BEFORE FUTURE EL ECTIONS, WHAT KIND OF INFORMA TION DO YOU THINK WO UL D BE MOST

USEFUL TO RECEIVE: (READ AL L : SEL ECT THREE ANSWERS)

Information about candidates 1

Information about the location of polling stations 2

Information about security arrangements to protect voters 3 Information about how to vote/choose candidates on ballot 4

Information about Islam and elections 5

Information about electoral law and human rights 6

Information about voter registration 7

Information about how to fi le an electoral complaint 8

Information about political parties 9

Information about the incumbents, their policies, successes and failures

10

Others if not l isted (Write down) 11

I want no information at all (Do Not Read) ( Skip to >> 7.1) 12

Don’t know 999

Refused 998

HOW EARL Y DO YOU WAN T TO START RECEIVING INFORMATION MENTIONED ABOVE REL A TED

TO EL ECTIONS?

1 month before election day 1

3 months before election day 2 6 months before election day 3

9 months before election day 4

1 year before election day 5

Don’t know 999

Refused 998

ARE YOU MORE L IKEL Y TO VOTE IF YOU ARE BETTER INFORMED ABOUT THE EL ECTION PROCESS

|



AND THE CANDIDATES?

Yes 1

Maybe 2

No 0

Don’t know 999

Refused 998

IN WHICH WAY DO YOU PREFER TO RECEIV E EL ECTION -REL ATED INFORMATION FROM? (RECORD

AL L ANSWERS)

Most preferred

Preferred Do not prefer

Don’t Know

Refused

RADIOS (ADVERTISEMENTS) 3 2 1 999 998

RADIO (TAL K)

TV 3 2 1 999 998

EVENTS AND L ECTURES 3 2 1 999 998

STREET/MOBIL E THEATER 3 2 1 999 998

FRIDAY PRAYER AT MOSQUES 3 2 1 999 998

NEWSPAPERS, JOURNAL S, MAGAZINES 3 2 1 999 998

PAMPHL ETS, BROCHURES, SHORT NOTES 3 2 1 999 998

BIL L BOARDS 3 2 1 999 998

AT GOVERNMENT’S PROV INCIAL AND

DISTRICT CENTERS

3 2 1 999 998

L OCAL NGOS AND CIVIL SOCIETY GROUPS 3 2 1 999 998

INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS/UN 3 2 1 999 998

GOVERNMENT 3 2 1 999 998

WOMEN GROUPS/ORGANIZATIONS 3 2 1 999 998

SCHOOL S AND UNIVERSITIES 3 2 1 999 998

ELECTORAL AND POLITICAL SITUATION

ARE YOU FAMIL IAR WITH THE FUNCTION OF EL ECTORAL COMPL AINTS C OMMISSION?

Yes (continue to 7.2) 1

No (skip to >>7.5) 0 Don’t know 999

Refused 998

|



ARE YOU SATISFIED WITH THE PERFORMANCE O F THE EL ECTORAL COMPL A INTS COMMISSION?

Yes 1

No 0

Don’t know 999

Refused 998

DID YOU FIL E A COMPL AINT DURING THE L AST EL ECTION?

Yes (continue to 7.4) 1

No(skip to >>7.5) 0 Don’t know 999

Refused 998

IF YOU FIL ED A COMPL AINT, WAS THE COMPL A INT RESOL VED?

Yes 1

No 2

Don’t know 999

Refused 998

HOW IMPORTANT DO YOU THINK IT IS FOR CANDIDATES TO BE PREVENTED FROM RUNNING IN

EL ECTIONS BASED ON P REVIOUS OR CURRENT A SSOCIATION WITH ARMED ANTI-

GOVERNMENT EL EMENTS?

Very important 1

Somewhat important 2

Not that important 3

Not important at all 4

Don’t know 999

Refused 998

DO YOU BEL IEVE AFGHA NISTAN NEEDS A NEW EL ECTORAL L AW?

Yes 1 No 0

Don’t know 999

Refused 998

DO YOU THINK IT’S L IKEL Y AFGHANISTAN W IL L ADOPT A NEW EL EC TORAL L AW BEFORE THE NEXT

NATIONAL EL ECTION?

Yes 1 No 0

Don’t know 999

Refused 998

|



WHICH INSTITUTION DO YOU THINK SHOUL D BE RESPONSIBL E FOR AMEN DING THE EL ECTORAL

L AW?

The National Assembly unilaterally 1

The President in consultation with the National Assembly 2

The President unilaterally 3

The Independent Election Commission 4

Don’t know 999 Refused 998

WHAT DO YOU BEL IEVE IS THE BEST ORGANIZED POL ITICAL COAL ITIO N IN AFGHANISTAN?

National Coalition of Afghanistan 1

Coalition of Afghanistan Democratic and Progressive Parties 2

Afghan National Front 3

Other (Write Down) 4

There is no best political coalition in Afghanistan 5

Don’t Know 999

Refused 998

IN YOUR OPINION, HOW L IKEL Y IS IT THAT THE TAL IBAN WIL L BE INFL UENTIAL IN POL ITICS IN

AFGHANISTAN FIVE YEA RS FROM NOW?

Very unlikely 1

Unlikely 2

Likely 3

Very l ikely 4

Don’t know 999 Refused 998

HOW L IKEL Y WOUL D YOU BE TO SUPPORT RECONC IL IATION WITH THE TA L IBAN OR OTHER

INSURGENT GROUPS IN AFGHANISTAN?

Very unlikely 1

Unlikely 2

Likely 3

Very l ikely 4

Don’t know 999

Refused 998

DO YOU THINK MEMBERS OF PARL IAMENTS SHOUL D BE EL ECTED TO REPRESENT THEIR

PROVINCES OR FROM SP ECIFIC DISTRICTS?

Provinces 1

Districts 2

Don’t know 999

Refused 998

DO YOU SUPPORT THE W ITHDRAWAL OF INTERNA TIONAL FORCES FROM A FGHANISTAN BY 2014

|



(1393)?

Yes 1

No 0

Don’t know 999

Refused 998

DEMOGRAPHICS

Male Female

GENDER 1 2

HOW OL D ARE YOU ? __ __

No Yes >>8.6 Refused

WERE YOU BORN IN THIS

DISTRICT 0 1 998

[Filtered: If “No in Q 8.3] **

HOW L ONG HAVE YOU BEEN L IVING IN THIS DISTRICT?

[I NTERVI EWER: WRI TE NUMBER OF YEARS]

__ __

WHERE WERE YOU BORN?

[I NTERVI EWER: WRI TE DI STRI CT, PROVI NCE NAME]

Number of people

Don’t know Refused

HOW MANY PEOPL E L IVE IN YOUR HOUSEHOL D?

[ I NTER VI EWER: ENTER NUMB ER ] __ __ 999 998

No Yes Don’t Know Refused

ARE YOU THE HEAD OF

THIS HOUSEHOL D? 0 1 999 998

Pashtun Tajik Uzbek Turkmen Hazara Baloch Kyrgyz Nuristani Other Refused

WHICH ETHNIC GROUP DO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 998

|



YOU BEL ONG? [ I NTER VI EWER NOTE:

S I NG LE R ES PONS E ONLY ]

FOR STATISTICAL PURP OSES ONL Y, WE NEED TO KNOW YOUR AVERAGE MONTHL Y HOUSEHOL D

INCOME.

WIL L YOU PL EASE TEL L ME WHICH OF THE FOL L OWING CATEGORIES BEST REPRESENTS

YOUR AVERAGE TOTAL F AMIL Y MONTHL Y INCOME?

Less than 2,000 Afs 1

2001-3000 Afs 2

3001-5000 Afs 3 5000-10000 Afs 4

10001-15000 Afs 5

20001-25000 Afs 6

25001-40000 Afs 7

More than 40000 Afs 8

Don’t Know 999

Refused 998

IN GENERAL , HOW DO Y OU RATE YOUR L IVING CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THOSE OF OTHER

AFGHANS? [I NTERVI EWER: READ O UT RESPONSE OPTI ONS ]

Much worse 1

Worse 2 Same 3

Better 4

Much better 5

Don’t Know 999

Refused 998

WHAT IS THE HIGHEST L EVEL OF EDUCATION Y OU COMPL ETED? [I NTERVI EWER: CODE FROM

ANSWER. DO NOT READ OPTI ONS]

Never went to school 0

Informal schooling only (including Madrasa) 1

Primary School, incomplete (classes 1 to 5) 2 Primary School, complete (finished class 6) 3

Secondary education, incomplete (classes 7 to 9) 4

Secondary education, complete (finished class 9) 5

High School (classes 10 to 12) 6

University education or above 7

Don’t know (volunteered only) 999

Refused 998

ARE YOU MARRIED OR SINGL E?

|



Single 1

Married 2

Widower/widow 3 Divorced/separated 4

Refused (volunteered only) 998

WHAT IS YOUR EMPL OYMENT STATUS?

Working full time (continue) 1

Working part time (continue) 2

Retired (continue) 3

Housewife >>8.15 4

Student >>8.15 5

Unemployed >>8.15 6

Other 7

Refused >>8.15 998

[FI LTERED: ASK I F I N Q 8 .13 “WORKI NG” OR “RETI RED”]: WHAT IS/WAS YOUR MAIN

OCCUPATION?

[I NTERVI EWER: WRI TE DOWN AND THEN CODE. I F RETI RED, ASK FOR PREVI OUS

OCCUPATI ON AND THEN CODE)

Farmer (own land/tenant farmer) 1

Farm laborer (other’s land) 2 Laborer, domestic, or unskil led worker 3

Informal sales/business 4

Skil led worker, artisan 5

Government office, clerical 6

Government office – executive/manager 7

Private office – clerical worker 8

Self-employed professional 9

Small business owner 10

School/University teacher 11

Afghan National Army 12

Afghan National Police 13

Other 14

Refused 998

OVER THE PAST YEAR, HOW OFTEN, I F EVER, HAVE YOU OR ANYONE I N YOUR FAMI LY GONE

WI THOUT: [READ OPTI O NS]

Never Just once or

twice

Several

times

Many

times

Always Don’t

Know

Refused

. ENOUGH FOOD TO EAT? 0 1 2 3 4 999 998

ENOUGH CLEAN WATER

FOR HOME USE?

0 1 2 3 4 999 998

MEDI CI NES OR MEDI CAL 0 1 2 3 4 999 998

|



TREATMENT?

ENOUGH FUEL TO COOK

YOUR FOOD?

0 1 2 3 4 999 998

CASH I NCOME? 0 1 2 3 4 999 998

RECORD THE TIME (USING 24 HOUR CLOCK) INTERVIEW WAS COMPLETED AND THE LENGTH OF THE INTERVIEW

0.5. Interview was completed: _____________________________

0.6. Length of the interview: ______________________________|

BY THE SUPERVISOR AND ENUMERATOR:

No >>9.3 Yes

WAS THE INTERVIEW SUBJECT TO QUAL ITY

CONTROL /BACK-CHECK? 0 1

Other information

Provinces

PROVINCE

Kabul 1 Balkh 18

METHOD OF QUAL ITY CO NTROL /BACK-CHECK

Direct supervision during interview 1

Back-check in person by supervisor 2

Back-check from the central office 3

Not applicable 4

REGION

Central 1

Northern 2

Southern 3

Eastern 4

Western 5

North- Eastern 6

South –Western 7

|



Kapisa 2 Samangan 19

Parwan 3 Jawzjan 20

Wardak 4 Sar-e-Pul 21 Logar 5 Faryab 22

Ghazni 6 Badghis 23

Paktya 7 Heart 24

Paktika 8 Farah 25

Khost 9 Nimroz 26

Nangarhar 10 Helmand 27

Laghman 11 Kandahar 28

Kunarha 12 Zabul 29

Nooristan 13 Urozgan 30

Badakhshan 14 Ghor 31

Takhar 15 Bamyan 32

Baghlan 16 Panjsher 33

Kunduz 17 Daykundi 34

Geographic Code (Supervisor t o fill out )

Vil lage (Rural) 1

Town (Rural) 2

City (Urban) 3

Metro (Kabul) 4

DATE OF INTERVIEW: DAY__ __ MONTH __ __ YEAR __ __ __ __

SUPERVISOR CODE (S UPER VI S ER TO F ILL OUT) __ __

KEYPUNCHER CODE (F I LL B Y D ATA ENTR Y) __ __

CODER CODE (F I LL B Y D ATA ENTR Y) __ __

INTERVIEWER CODE __ __

L ANGUAGE CODE OF THE QUESTIONNAIRE

Dari 1

Pashto 2

INTERVIEW COMPL ETED ON THE:

First Contact 1

Second Contact 2

Third Contact 3

Thanks for your time in this interview

a survey of public perception on elections and civic

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